Barfoot & Thompson had a cracker start to 2020, achieving the highest level of sales for the month of January since 2016.
The real estate agency, which is the largest in Auckland by a substantial margin, sold 678 residential properties in January, up 3.8% on January 2019 and up 14.3% on January 2018.
New listings also rallied, with the agency receiving 1080 new listings in January, up 10.1% on January last year.
Prices remained firm, with January's median selling price of $885,000 being at the top end of its recent range and just below the March 2017 record of $900,000.
The average selling price was $951,631 which was also near the top of its recent range.
The agency had a total of 3537 properties available for sale at the end of January, down 18.4% compared to January last year but an improvement on December's figures which were down 24.9% on the same month a year earlier, suggesting the rise in new listings may be starting to ease the shortage of stock in Auckland.
But with sales and new listings both rising and prices holding firm near recent highs, the outlook looks promising for the peak summer selling season.
"It was an extremely confident start to the year," Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said.
"Buyers were active across all price segments and were prepared to pay near record prices.
"Growing numbers attended auctions and open homes during the month."
Thompson said the agency's rural and lifestyle divisions also experienced their best start to the year for three years, with strong sales numbers and excellent prices in January.
"The active markets led to a renewed interest in development land from those buyers unable to find an existing property that met their needs," he said.
The interactive graphs below chart the monthly changes in Barfoot's sales numbers, selling prices and new listings.
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79 Comments
V good. But be aware that Jan 19 is a low base to compare to as it was artificially down due to intro of AML law that month. Ditto for listings.
Devil in detail and need to examine in detail where surge in sales occurred
The January numbers remain low, past 4 year average 640, prior 4 years January average 830 sales. January 2020 auction results for past two weeks, started with a bang, around 40 percent success or 60 percent failure on low numbers.. With at least five months of "recent" supply on the books give Mr Barfoot some more lipstick.
Greg!
The graph says they sold 1080 in Jan when it is actually 678, please correct
You are correct of course. Fixed now. Apologies. (It wasn't Greg who uploaded the data :), it was moi.)
The y/y average price increase slightly inflated
haw haw money for jam ....good to see we have 'steadied the ship' in little ol' aucks and the gravy train is warming up again .....I just salivate at the thought of all the hard earned moolah entering the bank's coffers with those large, juicy mortgages ! ....true bliss and so looking forward to 2020 to be the year when even more wealth is transferred to the top ....because that where it belongs, with moi and my ilk ....now get back to work, nothing to see here ....I'm orf to the Big Island, Hawaii tonight for some marlin fishing ...toodle pip for now
Mixed bag:
Central suburbs down 21%
Central up 1 sale
Rodney down 16%
S Auckland up 14%
Pakuranga /Howick up 32% (and I venture to suggest mom of that was in Pakuranga, not Howick< as its a lot cheaper)
NSC up 16%
12m figures are more definite: show all large increases in S Auckland and Pakuranga, while central areas suffered as did NSC.
Bear in mind that in January BT are saying sold 3.8% more than Jan 2019, which is 26 sales.
I will take a look at sales total for Jan 17 and Jan 16 for comparison of increase in sales and report back
What happened in West Auckland/Waitakere?
West Auckland sales are 141 in Jan 2020
In 2017 they were 99
In 2016 were 133
in 2015 were 129
How many Kiwi's in cities arround the world are monitoring the Wu Flu thinking we've made some good bucks and it might be time to return to good old NZ for our families safety?
According to Wikipedia's numbers 750,000 scattered arround the world. If 5% decide to relocate back home, that is 37,500 plus their wife and kids so maybe another 20,000 on top. 10% move back 75,000 plus their family whom do not have a Kiwi passport or registered, maybe 100,000 in total.
Then we have the rest of the world pondering the same and searching 'top 10 safe countries in the world' that tick the remote, civilised, good health care boxes.
We could be in for a jump in feet on the ground in NZ, on the light side 20,000 extra plus the standard population increases. That will only have one effect on house demand and prices.
Added later. Those who were thinking about heading off for a OE spell would be putting that on hold.
I spent 10 years living in England, Germany and The Nederlands if I was still there and had the funds to bug out I would be more than just contemplating it.
Being in a spot like London and walking down the tunnels that reek of urine to sit on a packed Tube with people coughing and spluttering isn't most fun place to be at the best of times, let alone in winter and the potential of anyone on that Tube to be infected.
Just pondering...
Good thinking. But have you thought about how much impact that the virus will bring to New Zealand economy?
The million dollar question. Anticipate it correctly and you will have a lot of free time on your hands.
The possible down side is a massive amount of people sick and requiring medical treatment. That rabbit hole isn't worth dwelling on.
0.4 the economists are calling but their banking masters just took a -2% plus haircut on their stock already this morning, so are they painting it correctly or calming the masses?
We have lost forestry already, tourism is going to drop more than double didgets, the freezers are full of export meat and the abitors are returning stock back to the farmers, just to mention the big three earners.
It all has a knock on effect that has to be greater than a 0.4% decline but I'm far from being an expert. Commonsense I have by the bucket load and it is screaming BS on negitive 0.4%
If I had a fairly isolated resort I would be seeking expressions of interest at creating a safe zone at for people at $250,000 plus a head for the next 6 months after they were cleared medically. I'm guessing you could pick up 20 or more right now.
No one knows where it is going and media hype in both directions. Stay tuned...
With my hunter / gather / horticulture skills I'm for hire at the right price.
A Golden Swan?
Vs. Black Swan.
Reason BT not referring to January 2017 is that comparing to Jan 2017 shows Jan 2020 in a poor light.
Esp as that was when the Chinese stamped on the hosepipe of money flowing into Auckland that inflated it so much in 2014-16.
Comparing January 2017 to Jan 2020 we see following: Total sales = 629 v 678 = up 7.8%
Central Auckland: 35 v 15 (down 57%)
Central suburbs: 156 v 82 (down 47%
Eastern suburbs: 43 v 52 (up 21%)
Franklin/Manukau rural: 36 v 65 (up 80%)
NSC: 100 v 108 (up 8%)
Papakura/Howick: 46 v 57 (up 24%)
Rodney: 47 v 56 (up 19%)
S Auckland: 65 v 100 (up 54%)
West Auckland: 99 v 141 (up 42%)
Most gains are rural or peripheral whilst Central got clobbered.
Jan 2016 by the way was 893. So Jan 2020 is 24% down on that.
DESPITE all the new building and extra stock of about 12-14k pa.
Plainly cheaper credit is having an effect.
But a greater impact is the type of stuff being sold: town house consents rose 42% in the period 2011-17
In Papakura these are going for $540k.
BT says that increases occurred across all price brackets but in reality the bulk of increase is in lower brackets.
Hardly surprising when FHB borrowing is up 57% on 2 years ago.
Pondering is fine, but when of the 19,855 confirmed cases to date only one of them has resulted in a death outside of China I think you're jumping the gun a bit.
If you have the Wuhan Flu, and are not based in China theres a 0.000050365% chance of death. Of the 426 to pass away thus far, 0.0023474% (or 1 person) of those deaths have occurred outside of China.
I don't think I'd have to take my shoes or pants off the count how many families would be looking to permanently relocate back to NZ due to this flu.
Once China's economy gets hit, New Zealand's economy gets hit, I dont know those families you are talking about could find jobs here or not. The risk to impact our housing price in New Zealand is not virus itself but the impact it will bring to New Zealand's economy. Lets see how long this virus gonna continue to hit globally. Dont fully rely on Chinese state media about the numbers. Those numbers are definitely not accurate. The thing matters is how inaccurate it is at the moment.
The numbers re: overseas patients aren't from China obviously.
If you're saying don't trust the numbers coming out of China and they are a lot higher, than the chances of death based on my above post are a lot lower.
You can come at me from whatever angle you want, but theres been 1 death outside of China to date.
You are correct with the number outside of China, Masher, but I wasn't talking about the mortality rate outside of China. I was talking about the numbers in China and the situation could be worse than what we've known at the moment. Not only epidemic itself but the impact it would bring to Global economy. So when you were thinking of how many families would be looking to permanently relocate back to NZ, I was more thinking of that how people gonna keep their job and continue to pay off their mortgage.
Now 2
Wow
The way we look at it is this, remember the first big E/quake reminder for Chch, then the big one? - These bugs, serve a timely reminder of how large the impact obstructions worldwide can cause by it, Geopolitics/economics etc. We put most of our eggs in one basket/China (as being championed from the past by JK/Nat Co), how prepare are NZ? for further major shocks? - Check the nationwide current tourism operator, the projected loss of revenue.. the ripple effects still in fluid motion.. to every sectors.. overseas student accommodations, hotel/motel, airbnb, tertiary enrollments etc. Let alone about peoples future/potential relocation, I would very nervous for now as the bottom $ projected income for my venture is immediately evaporated.
Difficulty with China's figures is that they are NOT increasing exponentially, as should expect them to due to the number of people that he Chinese scientific community has stipulated as likely infection rate person (4): that is expected to infect 4 people per person. Yet, the total deaths are rising roughly 16-19% in last 2 weeks, whilst infected rate , rate of increase, has SLOWED down according to official figures. This is highly illogical. Total infection rate and its rate of increase would be expected to increase daily, not reduce, as official figures keep stating.
I'd have expected the rate of spread to slow dramatically now that large parts of China have essentially shut down. But who knows really - will take a while before we really know what's going on.
Silly to jump the gun and lay dollars down at present anticipating expats to return.
BUT it is something to keep an eye on IF infections rates increase arround the world.
Most of the cases outside of China are in the early stages and we are yet to see how many are carrying it and have not developed symptoms.
Mate you've put two and two together. That comment was meant as a response to your comment!
Cheers!
As I said at the bottom.
Just pondering....
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
Couple of issues with those stats - firstly 1 out of 426 is 0.2%, not 0.002%. Your first calculation comparing deaths outside China to total cases (including those inside China) makes no sense, you need to know the number of cases outside China to make any meaningful stat out of that. I believe this number is 150 confirmed cases outside China, giving a mortality rate of 0.7% although it is extremely early to give any confidence to that.
We have people on here that should be watching the daily peak prosperity updates before typing anything. The death rate is not linear. While the number of cases are low those infected get the medical attention they need to recover. When the medical system gets overloaded and even the doctors start dying what to you think happens ? that's right the number of people dying rapidly increases. Then if things get so bad food and water runs out and vital services stop then guess what ? If the virus doesn't kill you, starvation kills you or someone with nothing to eat kills you and you have total collapse in civilization as you know it.
Jan 2016 BT sales: 893
Jan 2017: 629
Jan 2020: 678
Jan 2015: 859
Jan 2020 is 21% below 2015
There was a 30% drop from Jan 2016 to jan 2017.
That is when China stopped people taking their money out for 6m
So, when sales surge, one has to suspect that same cause is occurring in reverse.
However, as I said earlier, a large % of these sales are due to cheaper townhouses coming onto the market in periphery areas of Auckland.
However, as I said earlier, a large % of these sales are due to cheaper townhouses coming onto the market in periphery areas of Auckland.
Interesting. As a bunch of those new builds seem to offer lower deposit finance that could also help explain why debt per purchase was going up among the FHB.
lower deposit finance, double the homestart grant for new builds, built to modern contsruction standards. There are a lot of reasons why if you are going to take on debt for a first home you might want to look at a new build. Also plenty of reasons not too of course, all depends what you want from a house.
Yeah that's what we did. Although we didn't get homestart grant :)
Get a quality build and you are reasonably safe for almost no maintenance for at least ten years. Also with well built and good solar orientation you can minimize power bills. Then the affordability trifecta is created by being near a train station
Now you can get on to campaigning for free train trips for everyone not just older folks. (Rather than relying solely on building more roads.)
Free masks available at open home!
Smear all the door handles in anti-septic hand sanitiser...
Would be nice to see some of the pre christmas stock sold too. There seems to be plenty of choice in new and old stock in Aucklands Eastern Suburbs.
Yep listing certainly seem to be high in the more exclusive/expensive suburbs of Auckland. According to TradeMe CBD has 639, Remuera 115, Epsom 71 etc.. Seems that they're not selling that well.
"The agency had a total of 3537 properties available for sale at the end of January, down 18.4% compared to January last year"
Did you not read the article or are you saying you have better data?
TradeMe carries more than just B&T listings.
Indeed, only 9 listings on TradeMe (which carry most listings as you said). Thanks for helping make my point, (see my comment below)
In comparing B&T listings to TradeMe's listings referenced by CJ099 you weren't comparing apples with apples, point being.
Moreover, the 9 listings you reference in wider Ponsonby limits to between $2 and $3 million...why? Without that limitation the listings for those same suburbs on TradeMe show 124 right now.
Edit: heck, even if you remove the upper bound and just look at $2 million+ then it shows 44 properties for sale in that area.
It may show 44 properties for sale but only 24 houses for sale, which is what I'm talking about.
More importantly, what matters most is that for a same set of data (I happen to follow houses in the greater Ponsonby area $2 - $3 Mill for the last few years) listings are substantially down and at the lowest since I started watching them weekly (about 3 years ago). So in conclusion, no there are not "a lot of houses for sale in the expensive suburbs"
Ok...
Interestingly, if we take the price bracket narrower off there are 45 houses for sale in those areas, excluding townhouses, units and apartments.
That seems like a reasonable number of houses for sale in these suburbs. Don't know how that compares to previous years. Perhaps some that may have gone for above $2 million in the years of China's capital inflows are listing at lower TradeMe filter levels?
Rick, It's not worth your bother in replying to Yvil, It's just his way of tying to distract from what's actually happening in the wider market. Not wanting to recognize that all property listings in the more expensive areas of Auckland are stagnating and not selling that well due to being extremely over priced.
Still got your head in the sand huh? Whatever you believe is more true than actual facts, including the article above which states listings down 18% or the Realestate.co.nz data out yesterday showing listings down 22% on last year or a record low number of listings in the wider Ponsonby area between $2 -$3 Mill.
Ha ha, After two years of stagnation not surprised that listing would slip in Ponsonby. Try the extremely over priced areas, as I quoted from TradeMe earlier (All selling agents, don't try to cherry pick) CBD has 639, Remuera 115. These still higher listing amounts in comparison to more affordable areas in Auckland, Which are selling much better, if you don't believe me go look at MikeKirk's comments on sales info. :)
Glad to see that you're conceding that listing are dropping in the wider Ponsonby area
Also not true that listings are high in expensive suburbs. The greater Ponsonby area (Ponsonby, St Mary's, Herne Bay, Freeman's Bay, Westmere & Grey Lynn together) between $2 -$3 Mill has only 9 houses for sale. That is very low indeed, I have followed this bracket for years, it was at 36 houses listed at it's height maybe 18 months ago, it sits at about 20-24 most of the time, now there are only 9 houses listed in these 6 suburbs!
Core Logic updated for my home as at 2/2/20 to 102.2% of 2017 CV ($2,500,000). I think that's the highest it's been since I started quoting those numbers in late 2018.
Median price still below March 2017 peak.
Are you getting nervous Yvil?
Nope Fritz, that's why I called record average and median in March and not in January… we'll see in early April (when the March figures get released). I'm happy to meet up and shout you a beer if I'm wrong, or have a beer shouted by you if I'm right
Fritz
Whats your point?
Yes, the market peaked in 2017, after a peak there is a downturn (surprised?), but the data and respected commentators are all suggesting that for the near future the market is in an upswing. Some respected commentators are predicting an upswing of 6 or 7% (but personally I am a little more conservative).
So what has Yvil got to feel nervous about?
Maybe as you seem so besotted probably going to sleep each night convincing yourself that the market is going to fall is the one who should be nervous with postings such as yours.
It was tongue in cheek :)
Yvil has predicted prices to hit a new high in April.
Who are the respected commentators? Do you mean Westpac? Their predictive record is quite poor, they are also biased.
'Maybe as you seem so besotted probably going to sleep each night convincing yourself that the market is going to fall is the one who should be nervous with postings such as yours.' Ahhh, no. I've bought, remember??? I have no vested interest in the market falling. I'm just calling it how I see it, maybe a slight increase this year, but far from boom times.
Just to be perfectly clear, back in Sept 2019, I predicted house prices to reach record high in March 2020, (which will be proven right or wrong in early April, for the March figures)
On the other hand, MikeKirk predicted house prices to fall from February 2020 (he may deny that though)
Nope I stand by it. And with knobs on as black swan has arrived as expected
If you've bought in the more affordable areas then you should be ok in the long run Fritz. It's those in the extremely over priced areas and lease hold property owners that should be worried. Just keep an eye on mortgage rates and always negotiate those rates down, by shopping around.
Fritz
Cheers - happy New Year.
Sorry missed it being tongue in cheek - used to too many unsubstantiated comments on this site !
Yes I now recall that you have purchased - well done, and something you wont be regretting.
As per respected commentators - yes Westpac (see below), Tony Alexander (he is out on his own so now has no vested interest, remains connected, and he has been pretty accurate over the past decade plus I have been following him), CoreLogic (who mainly consider past data but indicated last year that prices likely to continue into 2020 and they know property trends better than most), plus a couple of others I recall reading. All articles looking at continuing strengthening in the market - including Auckland - and I have yet to find any reputable commentator who has been talking a downturn.
Not sure why you consider Westpac are biased - yes, like any bank they are into lending but they have a vested interested that their customers don't have the rug pulled from under them with over-inflated expectation of prices. And if I recall in their weekly report that they were calling a firming of house prices very early in the piece, were laughed at the time by a number on this site, and yes they did later review their estimate - upwards! I always find it assuming that some posters can sit at home in isolation and rubbish organisations such as Westpac who have a team of well qualified members, deal with trends on a daily basis, have the connections, and especially have all the current (not recent) data and IT support. Yes they will be not correct all the time but then economics is not an exact science and there are forever uncertain, changing and unknown variables and influences (e.g. RBNZ decisions, Coronavirus etc).
It's amazing how positive news doesn't get much attention. Both this B&T and yesterday's Realestate.co.nz's article are published monthly on Interest and used to get much more than 100 comments only 6 months ago when the news was about few sale and lower prices, now the news is more positive, yesterday's comments numbered 27 and today's so far 22.
Likewise 90 @ 9 usually yields 10 - 20 comments but when the Coronavirus is mentioned recently there were over 100 comments.
Why do people revel so much in bad news!
Yvil my good man ...those people don't matter a jot....no need to worry squire....you and your chums are championing my cause ...keep up the damn fine work ol' boy ....you'll be repaid in spades (literally) haw haw ....anyway must fly as have an appointment with a striped marlin off the Kailua-Kona coast .....sterling stuff !
Don't worry the corona virus will undo all that gain if it's still going strog in 2-3 months time.. Sit tight and you can bag some bargains..
My post is about people's negative attitude, just like your comment above. Why?
We don't have the luxury of rose coloured glasses that's all
You live in the lucky country. Yesterday, the presenter on 7 said the big city medians in Australia are hitting new all time highs.
That's odd...Core Logic is showing Sydney at -5.3% from peak, Melbourne at -2.1% from peak, Perth at -21.3% from peak and Darwin down 31.8%.
Only listing Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra as at their peaks.
Yes, my suburb was listed as top in Brisbane, median price shoot up 21% last year, about 12% year before that. It's a short stroll to one of biggest hospitals in Australia. But I am not in the business of buying and selling...!
Yvil - Unfortunately it is human nature most people look for bad news rather than good ! Bad news is like gossip for many. If one can understand these things and see past them great opportunities arise. The classic something bad narcisist was RP always preaching doom. Those who see past this like yourself move on and make decisions rather than blame others for their failures. Happy investing !
Top post Shoreman, we all make our own lives and we get what we belive in and focus on
So, environment and parental class make no difference to outcome then. In direct contradiction to 50 years of research showing it does
Yes environment has a huge effect on an individual... and not just the family environment. The political environment too which is now very very much centered on kiwis (of various races) being victims and 'needing' handouts. I dont believe that cradle to grave socialism is helping the kiwi psyche
50% of the social welfare benefit budget is handed out as a pension regardless of need, the only benefit that is handed out when people don't need it. Then we have the owners of 300,000 rental properties receiving the Accommodation Supplement handout (plus others who benefit from the rising tide lifting all boats). You're absolutely right we have a problem with middle class welfare and the Kiwi psyche. All these beneficiaries who feel completely justified...
Environment and parental class make a difference until we reach adulthood, then it's up to each of us to make our own life. Sure it's not easy to unlearn some of the wrong thinking and bad habits we have acquired during our upbringing but we can all better ourselves if we're willing to stop making excuses and start taking charge of our own life
Environment and parental class make a difference until we reach adulthood...
This statement is not actually completely true. A problem is that physical brain formation is massively affected by neglect and abuse in early years. It's simply not as simple as that environmental and parental impact only make a difference until adulthood. https://www.childwelfare.gov/pubpdfs/brain_development.pdf
Yvil
"It's amazing how positive news doesn't get much attention."
I have come to the conclusion that quite a number of the DGM contributors to this site ("bubble bursts", and "wait for the market to bottom in 6 to 8 years") during the last year are young potential FHB and are struggling to afford the deposit on a home especially in Auckland. As such, any negativity in reports were met with some glee and relief and posting activity.
Unfortunately now that the upturn in the Auckland market has become apparent these same posters have become withdrawn and really quiet.
This is not a criticism or a dig at frustrated and angry potential FHB; I have posted numerous times I am really concerned that affordability issues regarding home ownership and financial security.
I had a telling interchange a few weeks ago when I suggested that if FHB hadn't already acted that they should do now as it appears the bottom of the Auckland market has already passed; the response was comments about ponzi schemes and the like but it then emerged that the contributor was a really frustrated and angry potential FHB.
Maybe the potential Caronavirus and its financial implications are a substitute for a falling house market? (Fairly early to tell but I can see this possibly peaking and current - this afternoon - upturn in Asian markets seem to suggest this)
“The upturn in Auckland market”
Past tense now applies
Printer 8 your suggestion to FHB to act is excellent but question is with this renew rise in house price on top of already high price where FHB were already struggling- can they afford even if they want to ?
Lucky many have a house but how many FHB can afford even on the median price.
Overstretched market and it seems NZ has only one economy and that is Housing as this is the only talk since invasion of Chinese money in NZ supported by National party and added by Auckland mayor who is increasing the RV by 60% to 80% every three years (Many may say that RV or CV is not true value but tell that to vendors and RE Agents when they promote using RV as base value).
Yes good points.
And the fact that many potential FHBs simply cannot afford to buy will keep a lid on price increases.
In fact, I think a lot of the potential FHBs like me who could buy have rushed in in the past few months, which has propped the market up. There may be less as the year goes by.
Ok, here's my summation.
The stats are showing a stabilizing market, but little sign of a significant upward lift. It's just a little blip upwards.
Once we get 2 more months of data we should get a better picture.
No need to wait 2 months Fritz, prices will rise in Feb & Mar to reach new all time high then both sales & prices will settle down as the double whammy of winter and the election approaches. Past that is anyone's guess at this point.
Agents get some turkey and squashed advo for xmas.
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