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Treasury raises Kiwi Bond interest rates at a quickening pace, trimming the risk premium from bank term deposits to the lowest we have seen them

Personal Finance / news
Treasury raises Kiwi Bond interest rates at a quickening pace, trimming the risk premium from bank term deposits to the lowest we have seen them
Risk premiums are falling

Treasury has announced increases to the Kiwi Bond interest rates they offer.

Kiwi Bonds effectively set the risk-free benchmark for New Zealand retail savers.

The new rates are:

Maturity Rate
6 months 2.00 percent per annum
1 year 2.50 percent per annum
2 years 3.00 percent per annum
4 years 3.25 percent per annum

Rates offered by banks for their term deposit products are all higher than these, and that difference is the risk premium for holding your funds in a private bank. There is no tax-payer supported deposit insurance currently in place in New Zealand (although officials are working towards implementing a scheme).

After this latest rise in Kiwi Bond interest rates, the risk premium for holding money in a trading bank is now the lowest we have seen it. Here is a summary of the Kiwi Bond offer rates, compared to the average bank offer rates of all retail banks in New Zealand.

Term 6 mths 1 yr 2 yrs 4 yrs
p.a. % % % %
Kiwi Bonds        
31-Dec-18 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50
31-Dec-19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
31-Dec-20 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20
31-Dec-21 0.70 1.10 1.50 1.90
2-Jun-22 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25
         
Bank averages        
31-Dec-18 3.20 3.36 3.51 3.76
31-Dec-19 2.63 2.59 2.55 2.55
31-Dec-20 0.85 0.89 0.91 0.95
31-Dec-21 1.53 2.13 2.48 2.95
2-Jun-22 2.42 3.12 3.54 3.87
         
Risk premium        
31-Dec-18 0.95 1.11 1.26 1.26
31-Dec-19 1.63 1.59 1.55 1.55
31-Dec-20 0.75 0.79 0.71 0.75
31-Dec-20 0.83 1.03 0.98 1.05
2-Jun-22 0.42 0.62 0.54 0.62

At these new levels, bank term deposits offer an unusually low premium over what the Treasury offers.

The above table is only a summary at the points in time stated. The premiums will vary in between the dates listed above. Bank term deposit offers vary regularly based on a range of competitive, market demand and cost of funds issues. They don't depend on what Kiwi Bond rates are. But depositors should be aware of these issues.

When taxpayer-backed deposit insurance is effective, risk premiums are likely to fall again. In fact, there may be no case for there to be any risk premium of bank term deposits when they are backed by the State.

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5 Comments

I recently deposited $100k in a Bank PIE scheme for one year at 3.05%. 2.5% is attractive, but I would have to pay 39% tax on it so not yet there for me. The PIE is taxed at 28%. 

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0

So given the pending the deposit insurance scheme are you predicting bank deposit rates will hold or drop?

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0

Pending? I thought this had been parked and put into the 'too hard basket.' I follow this closely and the lack of a guarantee drives me to Kiwibonds vs retail deposits. l believe NZ and Israel are the only 2 developed countries without Government backing of deposits. Happy to be corrected.

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4

"Risk-free"

At negative real rates I'd say it's more return-free risk.

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3

Doesn't this really just show that banks aren't paying enough interest compared to the OCR rises. 

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2