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Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Australian debt ceiling impasse; Global banking glut; Fancy some high yielding North Korean debt?; Is Kim Jong Un actually Cartman; Stephen Colbert is the Grinch; Dilbert

Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Australian debt ceiling impasse; Global banking glut; Fancy some high yielding North Korean debt?; Is Kim Jong Un actually Cartman; Stephen Colbert is the Grinch; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at midday in association with NZ Mint.

I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.

I've been galavanting around for the last couple of days so no Top 10. Here's a bumper edition to end the year. This is the last one for 2011. I'll return on January 16. Best wishes to you and your family.

1. Catching the American disease - This one is out of left field.

Australia's Liberal opposition is threatening to block the Labor government's plan to raise its debt ceiling from A$250 billion.

This is, of course, shades of the fight over the debt ceiling in America this year that eventually saw Standard and Poor's downgrade the US credit rating from AAA to AA+.

Australia's public debt to GDP ratio at 15% is much, much lower than America's 100%, but this could cause some drama.

Interestingly, the revelation courtesy of the The Australian came just a day after Moody's reaffirmed Australia's AAA rating. HT Gareth via Yammer.

Here's David Uren at The Australian:

THE Coalition has threatened to block any effort by the government to raise the $250 billion limit on public sector borrowing, potentially forcing the government to run out of money.

Writing in The Australian today, opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey warns that he will demand a high price for the Coalition's support for increased debt.

"Whilst the Coalition has supported this in the past, the government should not expect a rubber stamp this time," Mr Hockey says in his article.

The Coalition demands could include scrapping the carbon tax and the mining tax, along with the benefits they are intended to finance, such as personal tax cuts and increased superannuation.

2. Watch the protests in Wukan - They seem to be spreading.

Here's The Telegraph on unrest in a larger town near the 'rebel' and besieged town on Wukan in China where townspeople have have protested illegal land seizures.

Residents of Haimen, a 130,000-strong town in the province of Guangdong, are demanding a coal-fired plant be moved, claiming it is damaging their health.

Web photos show a large gathering of people and riot police in a public square, and it is reported about 30,000 people in the town have gone on strike

Demonstrators are claiming a 15-year-old boy had been killed and more than 100 others badly beaten by riot police, but this has yet to be confirmed. Haimen is located around 90 minutes away to the northeast of Wukan village, where residents are in open revolt against the local government after what they say is years of illegal land grabs. There is no indication that the protests are related, but they are part of an upsurge in social unrest in Guangdong, China's wealthiest province and the country's manufacturing hub.

3. A financial system for its own benefit - Atlantic Capital Management CIO Jeffrey Snider writes a wide ranging comment piece here on the reliance of America's and Europe's banking systems on synthetic credit after looking in depth at Bank of America's accounts.

The pyramid of money into shadow money into synthetic money has grown immense. Central banks have created an inefficient Frankenstein of a financial system that no longer can operate within the bounds of the traditional notions of intermediation and banking. There is simply not enough real credit in existence to generate the cash flows and profits banks need to maintain the capital ratios that keep the system from imploding.

If we think about the banking system in terms of being able to grow retained earnings, and thereby strengthen their weakened capital ratios, the $107 trillion increase represents obviously necessary cash flows that would be impossible without the synthetic option. Therefore, the financial system is simply unable to make enough money off the real economy in order to even survive its past episodic spasm of over-speculation, describing the scale of dysfunction as something far greater than anyone perhaps realizes.

In many ways the system is at a terminal crossroads, as it cannot function without the synthesization of so much credit, but the real economy may not be able to survive the resource drain and monetary inefficiency that this much synthesization requires. Intermediation was supposed to be a tool for the real economy. Now the real economy is nothing more than a support system for the global investment banking regime.

In bailing out the banking system, central banks have put their money on the wrong horse since banks are almost completely disconnected from their true role as a tool of the real economy. The labyrinth of complexity and intentional opacity is designed to hide this fact. Real credit is shrinking throughout the system, but synthetic credit is alive, well and flourishing. The financial system now exists to its own exclusive benefit.

4. 'Global banking glut' - Princeton University Economics Professor Hyun Song Shin talks in this VoxEU piece about the global banking glut being more responsible than any global savings glut for the financial and economic problems now facing the globe.

The chart showing explosive growth in cross border lending is plenty scary.

It has become commonplace to assert that current-account imbalances were a key factor in stoking subprime lending in the US. This column says the ‘global banking glut’, i.e. the rise in cross-border lending, may have been more culpable for the crisis than the ‘global savings glut’. As the European banking crisis deepens, the deleveraging of the European global banks will have far-reaching implications not only for the Eurozone, but also for credit supply conditions in the US and capital flows to the emerging economies.

Just as the expansion stage of the global banking glut relaxed credit conditions in the US and elsewhere, its reversal will tighten US credit conditions. Its impact in the emerging economies (especially in emerging Europe) could be devastating. In this sense, there is a huge amount at stake in the successful resolution of the European crisis, not only for Europe but for the rest of the world.

 

5. Imbalances aplenty - PIMCO's Mohamed El Irian writes via Project Syndicate about the imbalances now built into the global financial system that are causing so many problems.

He reckons a loss of confidence by emerging economies in Asia and Latin America in the 1990s and 2000 in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is partly to blame.

Many emerging-market economies lost confidence in the “pooled insurance” that the global system supposedly put at their disposal, especially at times of great need.

This change in sentiment was catalyzed by the financial crises in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and by what many in these regions regarded as the West’s inadequate and poorly designed responses. With their trust in bilateral assistance and multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund shaken, emerging-market economies – led by those in Asia – embarked on a sustained drive toward greater financial self-reliance.

Once they succeeded in overcoming a painful crisis-management phase, many of these countries accumulated previously unthinkable levels of international reserves as precautionary cushions. They extinguished billions in external indebtedness by generating and sustaining large current-account surpluses. And they increased the scale and scope of domestic financial intermediation in order to reduce their vulnerability to external storms.

These developments stood in stark contrast to what was happening in the West. There, unprecedented leverage, massive debt creation, and a seemingly infinite sense of credit entitlement prevailed. Financial excesses become the rule rather than the exception, facilitated by financial innovation and the erosion of lending standards and prudential regulation.

Suddenly, the world turned upside down: “rich” countries were running large deficits and, in some cases, tipping from net creditor status to net indebtedness, while “poor” countries were running surpluses and accumulating large stocks of external assets, including financial claims on Western economies.

Little did these countries know that their divergent paths would end up fueling large global imbalances, and eventually trigger a financial crisis that has shaken the prevailing international economic order to its foundations.

6.' Stop kicking the can down the road' - Nouriel Roubini makes his plea for an end to the delays and the attempts to muddle through here at EconoMonitor.

It will become clear in 2012 that this game of “kicking the can down the road” is a zero-sum game. When domestic demand is weak, and either deleveraging or structural constraints are holding back private and public consumption, every country would rather have a weak currency to restore growth by boosting net exports. But if one currency is weaker another needs to be stronger; and if one country’s trade balance is improved another is worsened. So currency tensions can lead to currency wars and eventually to trade wars.

So in 2012, the combination of market pressures and conflicting political constraints will make it more difficult to kick the can down the road. A few eurozone members may need to coercively restructure their debts and even consider exiting the currency union. A slowdown in China’s growth may come close to being a hard landing. Markets in the US may become more concerned about the political gridlock that stops policymakers taking the necessary actions and maintains the unsustainable US twin deficits.

If the world’s biggest economies continue to play the same game and try to kick the cans further down the road for another year, the cans will become bigger and heavier and eventually hit a brick wall. By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the US, a disorderly scenario in the eurozone and a hard landing in China could materialise.

7. Debt: The first 5,000 years - I'm reading this book by University of London anthropologist David Graeber at the moment. He writes about the history of debt and money. He challenges a few shibboleths, particularly around the morality of debt, how credit preceded money and how bartering didn't exist in the beginning.

Here's an interview he gave RT a while ago.

8. Fancy some North Korean debt ? - This is fun. There are still North Korean bonds trading on international debt markets.

North Korea defaulted on them a few decades ago but there's a few hedge fundies keen to take a punt that the new Kim might repay them at some stage.

Good luck guys.

Here's Dow Jones:

The defaulted bonds, which were created in 1997 when French bank BNP repackaged a series of non-performing syndicated bank loans that were granted to North Korea in the seventies, have suddenly sparked interest among speculators. The sporadically traded bonds, which trade at a deep discount to their face value, saw a tick up this week and were recently quoted at between 14 and 18 cents on the dollar, compared with 13 to 15 cents, according to London-based sales and brokerage house Exotix.

Those who have bought the bonds are making nothing less than a bet that the transfer of power to Kim's son Kim Jong Eun will usher in a moment akin to that of the Berlin Wall's collapse for the tightly controlled communist country.

"Investors are looking at this as an unlimited option trade with enormous potential gains," said Andrew Chappell, head of European, African and Middle Eastern fixed income trading and sales at brokerage house Exotix in London, who says that inquiries into the bonds have increased in recent days.

According to Chappell's calculations, investors' claims extend to the principal and interest accrued from 1984 when the original loans defaulted. That amounts to anywhere between 300% to 600% in unpaid interest.

9. The problem with China's banks - Leland Miller, an international economics fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, has written this detailed piece at Institutional Risk Analyst on China's banking system and its vulnerabilities.

He makes some excellent points about the structure of China's banking system and the blowout in lending by so-called policy banks in recent years.

With over three trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, China controls a substantial amount of monetary firepower to wield inthe event of a crisis. In theory, while those reserves could be used to recapitalize any policy bank with significant forex exposure (an option not available for the primarily yuan-denominated obligations of the commercial banks, because of China's closed capital account), such a bailout would hardly be a demonstration of these banks' viability to global investors.A bailout would almost certainly force policy banks to forswear the market and continue as wards of the state, but that in turn would force commercial banks to either dramatically restructure their portfolios to handle the new(above-zero) risk weightings of policy bank bonds or else SFB issuance authority would need to be extended indefinitely, further undermining Beijing's attempt to modernize and deleverage its financial system. In other words, these systemic problems have no easy solution.

Looking to 2012, China's banking system will be entering a transformative, but also highly vulnerable, period. Until Beijing finds a way to disentangle its policy bank hybrids from the current subsidy structure that bankrolls their excesses while disguising their true liabilities, investors should find little solace in the record-breaking profit announcements of Chinese banks. In fact, should the global downturn continue to accelerate, these problems will likely show up on Beijing's doorstep sooner than anyone expects.

10. Totally Stephen Colbert doing the Grinch thing. Merry Christmas.

 

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60 Comments

Merry christmas Berno and the team, and Wolly

 

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Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the housing market..

http://nicholasarrand.wordpress.com/

Merry Christmas Bernard ,Alex, Amanda and all my fellow bloggers, especially AndrewJ, Chris_J, Wolly and Roger T and, yes, Olly Newland, SK and other 'foes'. Thx for the forum that allows for the expression of divergent views, and I  will enjoy watching from afar whatever 2012 brings to you all in New Zealand.

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Forget the salutations ,...  get the reindeer out , sleigh them , and fire up the BBQ ........ it's Christmas , ...

....... time for you to get busy , St. Nick !

Cheers .

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Continuing your evangelizing Australia eh - that's some website you have there -

lots of time on your hands and that's what you do with it?

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MERRY XMAS bah humbug.

I'm off to summer school to complete my degree in idiocy.

Thank god i am half way thru it.

I'M OUT.

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Excellent ,...  hope to see you back here with your idiot degree in hand , after summer .....

...... you'll fit in so much better with the rest of us , once you're up to our standard !

Merry Christmas .

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I'm half way through my degree in Wit... probably drop out though...

Merry Christmas all! And to all a Good Night!

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Better to be a half wit than have no wit. at all.

Merry Xmas all. 2012 will be my first mortgage free year. That should make Bernard happy.

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I'll take the opportunity to wish Bernard ...Alex...Gareth ..Amanda....David....Roger....that Damn Bell...and cast of many  a very Merry Christmas and a big thank you for some great entertainment during the year.

A year that has been plagued with misery ,doom and potential Global disaster that now falls quite for a time when we can remember each other for that moment longer never taking for granted what we have ,and hold dear ,will be there for tomorrow.

 The most valuable thing you can give this Christmas or indeed at any time, is your Time.

A big shout out to my fellow bloggers a cast of thousands... but I'll attempt special mention....

Gummy Bear Hero......................Wolly.....Kunst(Walter)....PDK....Steven....Gonzo..Les Rudd..Muzza ...Justice..Ivan ...Scarfie..Skudiv..Chris J..Andrew J....Elley....The Chairman....CassO..Iain Parker...Bankster Basher..Ostrich....Ghost Dog...Matt in Auck..Kakapo...Mist 42...Kate...St. Nick....Iconolast...Ms Demeanor..PhillB...Philly...David B..FCM ...Matt S...Prosperlink....Anarkist ....OMG ...RP....and although I feel sure I've neglegted some very  important characters ...Rob O the Glen.

Thank you all so much for making this site what it is...! an entertaining cauldron of ideas and reactions...

I sincerly  wish for you a most excellent Christmas and the strength of peace .

I will leave you with this for now.

Two snowmen in a field, one turned to the other and said "I don't know about you but I can smell carrots."!

 

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Merry Christmas , Count ............. despite Bernie's finest prognostications , the financial world didn't end in 2011  .....

.... . we'll pray that  he gets his " armageddon " gift wrapped on the 25'th !

.... now , where's all  the Tanduay rhum gone ? ... .... hic .......  

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I will without doubt raise a glass to your good self on Christmas eve GBH...right before I have to start cooking my ass off.

Thank you for the many moments of mirth in what can sometimes be a tedious and tiresome world.

It really is appreciated....Stay well!

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Some call me the anti-Hickey ! ...... but I think , even Bernard says some of his stuff with tongue in cheek .........

Merry Christmas Bernard , Gareth , Amanda , Alex and David .

...... now , Count , back to cooking your ass off ....... are we talking of a ripe hot derriere ...... or have you a donkey in the BBQ pit , and you're about to nuke that sucker with some napalm ?

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It will be a feast of  Chicken little....stuffed....amid a garden of vegetables ( roasted)...waiting for the clove cherry ..orange mustard glazed Ham to show up for some light relief...tee hee..! oh and the cauliflower cheese thingy....hmmm note to self..

The desert will feature the undisputed N.Z. dish of Pavlova garnished with  whipped cream berries and Cadbury Flake...accompanied  by brandy snaps ...icecream...etc etc..etc..lashings of  what have you.

Breakfast has to be Bacon Banna Cream stack pancakes in a maple syrup sauce.

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Christov, Roger -  ohh you lucky people. We follow some official invitations from business organisations tonight and fill our pockets with nibbles (leftovers) for our breakfast, lunch and dinner tomorrow.

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Walter...wear big pants and don't offer anyone a light......Bless you.

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Good idea Christov – thanks, my wife wears a recycle bag and a lovely hat from a second hand shop – that makes her look honest.

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And Merry Christmas to you Christov!

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oooh ooooh , we just got hit by  a huge aftershock , here in Rangiora !

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The drums in NZ didn't look good this morning - in fact for number of days.http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/drums/

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thanks for that Walter ....... we're having a few aftershocks ........

........ bugger , and we only just got Mummy Gummie's house fixed up : .. Poo !

Merry Christmas , Kaikoura Kunzie .

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In June, we had a 4.8 & 5.1 I think in the hour before the 6.3 so I'm a little worried right now. Bummer.

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It was 5.9 magnitude shake , 8 km deep , off the coast near New Brighton .

........ Merry Xmas , Elley . We got our ham from the Oxford butchery , this morning . And 2 kg of fresh asparagus from Coldstrem , Rangiora . All set for tomorrow night !

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Merry Christmas to you too! I promised the kids that we'd make some Xmas chocolates and truffles tonight...

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Hope alls ok....and to say oooops I just gave myself one, up there, strike that Bernard.

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Yep, it wasn't too long but quite big. A bit shaky myself, as are the kids. The building where hubby was in Chch has been evacuated, he's on his way home. I had almost forgotten about the quakes :(

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Hope you're all okay down there.

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Merry Christmas to you too!

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And a very merry xmas and happy new year to you Count and to all fellow bloggers. May only good come to you all - and to all our fellow citizens on this earth, despite the challenges ahead. I find this website very entertaining and informative and greatly appreciate Bernard for allowing an uncensored exchange of ideas.

 I believe the lesson we can all learn is to not take ourselves too seriously!

OMG ( what a pretentious screen name , LOL )

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typical... Just like a politician you forget the little guy. Nevertheless ol sport, a happy Blessed Christmas and a peaceful Kwanza to you and yours.

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Mandalay  and Vanderlei Lux ....I am embarrassed to have omitted you, as I am sure to have neglected others   in the all star line up....a very Merry and prosperous Christmas  to you .

 May you cherish the time with those you love .

 

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ah Christov... you are a gentleman.... A merry merry Christmas to you and yours and may 2012 bring you and your family the great prosperity of a rich life...

 

 

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Have a happy and merry life to all you guys n gals.  Hope you all have some of the truest wealth there is.  TIME OFF WORK!

Cheers all.

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Haven't you all heard? The government has cancelled Christmas this year. No reason given, that's the way the State operates: arbitrarily.

Oh no, here it goes, Nanny sent me an email and I'd overlooked it ... let's see ...yes, She doesn't like people having fun. Thought it'd be something like that.

 

Until the freedom revolution in the New Year ... (probably not many takers for it here though).

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Ah there I go already....how could I have forgotten Tribeless..!  my sentiments to you also ...as they belong just as much in a free world ..stay well..!

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;)

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2011 has been the year when people finally started understanding how the banking and finance system operates. 2012 will reinforce that :-)

Well done to Bernard and the team.

Just had a huge quake in Christchurch :-(

Best wishes to all.

 

Raf

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Cheers Raf

Best wishes to you and yours in Christchurch at this time. 

You guys get the worst luck.

Our thoughts are with you

cheers

Bernard

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A Christmas gift for you all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFEPqnZVOdk

Actually I thought Hone shows some touches of class once he got a head of steam up.

Take care and enjoy the break.

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hang in there Gummy , Elley  and all  - hope all ok ?

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Cheers goNZ ....... we'd grown complacent , no shocks for a while ...... as it turns out , only 5.8 magnitude . But the local supermarket has turfed the customers out , a few shelves of food toppled , apparently .

... some liquefaction in Ferrymead , Chch ....... and the airport closed . ... no one hurt , so far ..

Merry Christmas !

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Youtube has a new button along the bottom right of the window, click on it it makes Hone look a little more festive. (I am not talking about the delete button).

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New business idea for interest.co.nz for 2012: Hold a real-world event -  conference/seminar/investment advice etc ... & entice all these interest.co commenters along.    With a strong referee .... maybe a live debate on various topics ....

We might get to see/meet many of the characters here ....     Just an idea  ....    to help pay for it could invite Bank investment/mortgage broker stands, Tony Robbins DVDs,  Doomsday prophets/alternaive economists, Budget advisors,  Entrepreneurial success stories   ie reflect the divergent mix of worldviews here in a f2f event? ....   

 

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Loved the hat in the 90 second news. Merry Christmas to all and thanks for all the educational posts.

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This is more dangerous than chch aftershocks....

 "Spain needs to cut 40 billion euros from its budget to meet its deficit target for 2012. The problem is there is only 90 billion of expenses to 'play with' according to an article in Libre Mercado: The maze of Montoro: save 40,000 million without "social cuts"

 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

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The cartoons depicting Merkel as a dominatrix in various forms were moderately funny in a juvenile way the first 10 times. Now not so much. 

Anyone care to interpret #9 for us not so fortified in the language of economics 'fellows'. For he's a jolly good $#@%?!

 

 

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The net result of #9 is that China will struggle to contain a bad debt crisis in its banking system, contrary to the complacency of many who think China will be able to manage its way through like it did in 2008.

cheers

Bernard

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Appreciate the reply Bernard.

The general theme you reiterate is self evident. Its the jargon I struggle with. I've re-read it approximately 15 times now and think it may be starting to resonate, in a mildly nauseous fashion.

While far too removed to conduct indepth analysis myself the fact that the bigger commodity suppliers remain bullish on chinese demand medium term does offer a counter view, backed by many extremely busy and smart people crunching data on epic scales. I'm not trying to imply your view is unsubstantiated it just conflicts theirs. And they have serious coin on the line.

Just read the editors choice, speckles, on the shakes lasting for 20-30 years. Great to have a little clarity from one in a position to distribute the insiders view. I think that many of those affected had come to a similar if not quite so long term conclusion without access to real analysis but so far have chosen to stay.

People are by nature optimistic on the whole, long may this be the case but the effect on the little ones worries me. Went to my sons room and had a quiet sit with him as he slept. Reminded myself of how lucky we are not to be affected. 

Thoughts with you Cantab's,

 

 

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"Dont ever let them con us into sending our sons and daughters into such hell ever again."

Well Iain, they conned you into a mortgage didn't they? You know the "war mongering financial middlemen"

Yes, Yes I know it's Xmas.

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Have you read "The creatures from Jekyll Island" yet, go on, do it it's a free download.  Spend a few hours over Christmas.

Here is how it works; http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28272

The "sovereign debt crisis" is completely manufactured.

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  "I am going take a break from economic reality and join the fantasy land "....

harrrrrrrrrrhaaahaaaa.....Parky intended to post......."I am going to take a break from fantasy land and join the economic reality"................

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And this sums it up: War Pigs

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Rememember - CONSUMERISM IS THE TREASON OF THE SEASON!

 

WISHING YOU AND YOURS A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS AND PEACEFUL 2011

 

 

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Have  great break guy's and a prosperous new year.

 A few snippets from around the globe

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/eurobank-liquidity-how-much-more…

 

And Greg Pytel has a couple of good attricles, Iain would enjoy the second.

http://gregpytel.blogspot.com/

 

Take care, Andrew

 

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Ryanair boss tells the Eurocrats to their faces what he thinks of them

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100125529/ryanair-boss-t…

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Fun at Xmas - watch out for those reindeer while flying...ht MaxedOutMama

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Merry Xmas everyone

regards

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My Xmas grinch post pick, copy pasted from the Telegraph reader 'John Mackie'

"If you all thought 2011 was a humdinger of a disruptive year, wait until 2012 grabs you.

NOTHING has been resolved. We have a filthy 1 billion $ USA election to look forward to for starters.

French Presidential Election.
Russian Presidential Election.
This Chinese transition of power
Young Kim finding his feet in N. Korea
The euro is still on life support.
Chavez at death's door in Venezuela
The Argies rattling sabres again
The Arab spring about to go pear shaped.
The possibility of an invasion/attack on Iran.
Syria/Israel war, too?
Iraq exploding into Sunni Shia violence. Again.
AfPak going very pear shaped.

et. cetera.

What a bloody mess the world is in...."

I guess its not christmas there yet so the grinch call a little harsh perhaps. sobering reflection none the less.

Time for slot cars with the boy! Yeeah

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No mention of Sratos TV closing on this site.

Bloomberg business news far better than anything NZchannels provide.

R.I.P Sratos you did a sterling job trying to educate us Kiwis.YOU WILL BE MIssed

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Where is grumpy old Bernard over christmas/New Year.?......I miss all the depressing news about Europe/U.S.A  etc etc

 

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