By Bernard Hickey
No one told us it would be like this.
The powers-that-be have been telling us for a couple of years that the economy needed to be transformed.
They spoke about a rebalancing from being a borrowing, importing and spending economy to a saving, producing and exporting economy. The theory is that we will start saving, the money will be invested in new export businesses, new higher wage jobs will be created and the economy will grow faster.
Nice theory, but is it happening and how much might it hurt before we get there?
Prime Minister John Key, Finance Minister Bill English and Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard have done the theory part. And they've painted a rosy picture of the future. Higher wages and a lower current account deficit are, of course, a good thing. But this transformation isn't going to happen without disruption, dislocation and pain.
Not much has been spoken about the pain or disruption. It was also supposed to just happen, as if by magic. It's clear now as the economy struggles to recover that the cracks and tears caused by this transformation won't be covered over by the benefits of strong economic growth.
That was the hope earlier this year of Key, English and Bollard. As long as the economy was growing at 4% or 5% it was possible to mumble or look away when asked about the possible losers in any transformation.
But what if growth is an anemic 1.5% or 2%? Or even worse, no growth at all. This is now the prospect for 2011 after a near double-dip mini-recession in the June and September quarters of 2009. The losers in this transformation are becoming clearer. Retailers hoping that Christmas 2009 would rescue them are now realising that something has changed.
This is not like any previous recovery. Shoppers are reluctant to spend. Discounts seem to be almost permanent. Profits are scant or worse.
Any business providing anything seen as non-essential or as 'affordable luxury' are struggling.
The evidence is only anecdotal, but many small retailers are expected to close their doors early in the New Year after the last throw of the dice failed to deliver the salvation of a strong Christmas. Anyone providing services to the real estate sector is also struggling.
Real estate agents, mortgage brokers, bankers, insurers, home renovators and others who rely on the regular turnover of properties for their incomes had hoped that the spring of 2009 would restart activity.
Instead volumes for most parts of the market are down 15% from a year ago and still half what they were during the previous recoveries from 2004 to 2007. Shop owners and real estate agents will have to find new jobs. Mortgage brokers will have to retrain to do something else.
People will be unemployed or on low wages during the changeover. This is the point where many wonder why no one told them that the transformation of the economy would be painful for some.
Why didn't anyone tell us? If this transformation does happen in any meaningful way then hundreds of thousands of workers will have to change jobs. Some businesses will go out of businesses. New businesses will have to be created. Fortunes will be lost and made.
And unfortunately, because growth is so weak and debts remain so high, the rising tide of economic growth will not arrive to lift all the boats.
The election year of 2011 may become a year of dawning realisation for a naive and unprepared electorate.
The failure to prepare or warn voters may eventually be seen as a failure of leadership as much as a failure of planning.
No one told us it would be like this.
232 Comments
Well said BH !
2011 may well be the year that reality finally dawns on NZ and the outcomes will be exactly as you say.
Best left unspoken by the pollies and maybe they wont happen.
I think we are looking at negative growth for the Dec qtr so it's recession time again.
Theories are fine - but implementation is the key as we have known since Aesop's time -
Who is going to tie the bell on the cat ?
It is simply not possible to transform the broken debt fueled NZ economy without major as in major structural changes. I suspect these will be driven eventually by the strangers who's kindness is focused elsewhere and we have a debt funding issue.
Pollies appealing to the bond market will be an exercise in futility and worth watching.
We have been warned twice - do we seriously now think there is now only a 30 % chance of a downgrade ?
..and PM - where are the incentives to increase real, sustainable production, where are the incentives for skilful NZjobs ? Why are minister Hide, Brownlee and Joyce not forced to allocate quality infrastructure orders (Telecommunication/ Energy/ Transport) to NZcompanies in order to increase better job opportunities, full employment and to reduce our account deficit ?
..and why are young gangs increasingly roaming the streets/ prisons and not NZfactories doing decent jobs ?
..and why are you saying we have to wait and see or see and wait ?
..and PM - why are you not making decisions and leads this country out of recession, away from an unbalanced economy - into a better future ?
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Small countries have to think small, but with bigger ideas – branding for a “100%NZpure Economy”
PM - how much longer you wait and see - muddle along ?
One example only:
... why PM did your minister Brownlee not stop Pike River ?
20th of April 2010 West Virginia: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36183425/ns/us_news-life/
...and PM - why is he still in charge ?
...and why do turn the purest NZfreshwater, which could make billions - into the dirtiest ?
…and why are you not creating decent jobs away from modern slavery – away from AUcoal-mining into real NZproduction – NZmanufacturing ?
We cannot transform the economy when government spending is out of control . Between local government rates and central government taxes , 50 % of the country's GDP filters through their ledgers .
Take a peek at similarly taxed economies in Europe , and you'll see a common thread of high unemployment , and piss weak GDP growth .
Government needs to get out of the way of the market-place . Bureaucratic meddling got us into this shamozzle , only the capitalist system can grow us out of it . Put the decisions of our future back into the hands of the 4 million folk who are Kiwis , not the 122 plonkers in the beehive and their pointy-headed advisors .
"Government needs to get out of the way of the market-place."
Absolutely not.
We're in this mess because of a lack of marketplace governance, regulation and oversight.
What makes me laugh (bitterly) is how those who stridently advocate "free markets" are always the last to want it to apply to themselves, and who are always the first to seek protectionism for their own sector.
And Wolly uses an unrelated topic to segue into "socialist" bashing.
The markets were given an approximation of a free reign and look what happened.
What happened was what always happens when the market is given anything even approximating a free reign: bloody disaster for everyone but those at the very top of the economic food chain.
Just imagine what the various markets would do to the world if they ever got an actual free reign. (No, your simpleminded fantasies are incorrect. It wouldn't be good for anyone other than the top dogs.)
What question? Your assertion that Clark and/or Labour expanded the state sector?
Dunno, don't care either. That has nothing to do with the topic under discussion. Take your anti-Labour, anti-"socialism" fetish elsewhere.
Back ontopic: Deregulating an already mostly deregulated marketplace is akin to swallowing plutonium.
wolly,
It is your question which is not answerable because it needs to provide a workable alternative and even your gretat mind could not provide that.
I don't care either. I am only interested in the here and now and how our great leader is going to get us to catch up with West Island by 2025.
Have you seen any progress on that one yet?
Basel.........my question went to the core of the problem where we have a bloated state sucking too much life from the economy...why did Clark and Cullen expand the state sector so much in those 9 years?.....was it necessary?....which brings us to the next bit....what can be chopped off because that is what this govt and the next one will have to do if they want to fill in the fiscal hole.
Roger, please don’t comment on correlation in economics you don’t understand.
Free market mechanism with all advantages only work when the government does it’s part- among - allocating infrastructure orders to NZcompany – which is favourable for other business sectors too. You should know by now – that I’m advocating - no interference by government, but strong incentives for manufacturing – real production.
..and please read and understand this in context to many of my other articles.
...and yes you are right Helen and Cullen didn't support production either - hmmm !
Roger one day you are hoppla another toppla !
New Zealand's youth unemployment rate has surged to nearly 20 per cent – one of the highest levels in almost 20 years.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4515185/Youth-jobless-rate-soars-to-19-4
PM and Minister Joyce it is about time to perform and make radical changes in your policies. Considering the worldwide situation this is far more worrying then in 1992 (see above 04 Jan 11, 8:42am)
There is little they can do Walter....deciding to run for time and hope for the best with a 6 part strategy means this sort of pain. Part of the problem is the minimum wage laws. There is scope for an effort by winz to match kiwi youth with employment in the aussie mining sector but I doubt they would do it. Too many have too few skills. DOC could be running programmes to plant native timbers for a future industry...but they won't. It's all very hit and miss and dependent on luck.
The govt seems happy to provide work for foreign fishing crew on foreign boats in NZ waters...go figure.
The report is available on the OECD website , and is dated 15 / 12 / 2010 .
NZ's youth unemployment rate will remain high , as long as we maintain a minimum wage . Scrap that , and jobs will become available . The well meaning but misguided folk in parliament ( Sue Bradford was culpable here ) and in the trade-union movement , have closed down job opportunities by their policies .
The 90 day employment trial was an excellent step , by the Key government . But raising the minimum wage undid some of that good work .
Roger - minimum wages isn’t the real problem – not enough decent NZjobs is.
That is one of the reasons, why I’m advocating the government should, in stead of allocating billions for our infrastructure needs to overseas companies, spending taxpayer’s money right here with NZcompanies
Private companies have currently enough to fight against worldwide negative events. It is now up to the government to make sure we have full NZemployment with skilful and decent NZjobs.
Walter ,since you are being proved right and its raining again I have some time to question your logic. Whilst I cant see any of us would disagree with your ideals but what are the unintendended consequences of your ideas?
As the govt no doubt puts up for tender said infrastucture projects then NZ companies have every chance of winning them and often do. To suggest that govt is compelled to accept a tender from a NZ company opens up all sorts of cans of worms.
Firstly, as taxpayers we may not be getting the most cost effective deal meaning that in essence the taxpayer is subsidiseing said NZ company at a time when we are borrowing hand over fist already.
Secondly, overseas company complains to their govt that the NZ govt is engageing in protectionist policies which clearly we would be and hey presto dirty great tariffs are placed on NZ milk powder,meat, seafood etc. As a country with a very small domestic market we clearly need access to overseas markets to survive or we're Cuba with frosts.
To me whist your ideas sound good they are abit Muldoonist in concept.
Like this already happening ? "...Tariffs of 360 per cent on butter - higher in some cases say New Zealand officials - see Japanese shoppers paying up to $20 for a block that would cost about $5 in New Zealand."
I guess we'd better play fair then...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4339097/Butter-reveals-cost-of-trade-barriers
The result of my strong opinion on NZmanufacturing is based on my earlier life, education and life experience in business. It is a comprehensive theory, how we should do business here in NZ. This cannot be without learning and adopting to our current and upcoming fast changing environment.
Our and many other governments do not check and judge and then adopt and legislate to market situations quick enough. In the current and worldwide situation full employment in decent jobs of the national workforce should have first priority. Unfortunately the private sector cannot fulfil that task, but is struggling to maintain reasonable business activity down to ugly survival scenarios. Upcoming events and the consequences will prove that in most countries only protecting their own industries will do the job. This will create a very hard environment for the private sector, especially exporters. Globalisation and free market thinking will have it’s limits. Governments not necessarily need to protect “their products” but their workforce from massive unemployment. Protectionism and austerity measures are already in place in some countries.
Increased production, a structured economy adding new, stable segments to our existing industries is necessary here in New Zealand anyway. This will lead into a far more workable situation for the private sector. Strong incentives from the government allocating orders to NZmanufacturers would revive and stimulate other sectors also and almost guarantee skilful and employment and much more job opportunities for the younger generation. This is long term the best deal for the NZtaxpayer.
Far more rain on it’s way for NZ : http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1299.shtml too much ?
Walter, So you are suggesting govt provide full employment by provideing "strong incentives" to NZ companies which I read as protective legislation against foreign competition or some form of subsidy from the taxpayer. This at a time when we are already borrowing way beyond our means and need access to export markets to pay our way. I may comprehend you wrongly but I dont see how that would work without a large domestic market. What countries do you see that most closely follow your model?
Oh please – this is hard going ! Infrastructure such as energy, transport, telecommunication are needed on a daily base by our society.
The government allocate our infrastructure needs to private NZcompanies in stead of importing them in the billions.
This allows many private (even new ones) NZcompanies to participate in those orders, employ people, train them and provide more skilful NZjobs. The injection of such proportion would change the landscape of our economy, would reduce our account deficit, unemployment, lift skill, research, entrepreneurial skill, innovation - the overall NZproduction and over time we would have a more diverse and more balanced economy.
I think I have to make this clear again. Government should not interfere with the private sector, but now in difficult time needs to support the private sector, where and when ever possible - urgently !
..and please read and understand this in context to many of my other articles.
Have you guys ever thought what’s happening with our country, when we carry on importing most everything ? Where is the buying power of the nation, when we aren’t producing quality stuff - when 60% of Kiwis are kept on low wages in stupid jobs and at the same time wages in Asia are going up ?
Only two solutions Takaka or ……… exactly !
Walter,again all very laudable objectives but the NZ economy is not big enough to close up shop. We need to export and consequently access to export markets which will be gone by lunchtime as soon as we exclude them from ours. How would you get around that? You havent addressed the unintended consequences. How does what you suggest differ from the USSR or other planned economies? If so which other countries should we be modeling ourselves on?
Sheep Shagger – considering your comment/ question, there is a great possibility you have to read my articles twice and in context with others before you understand, what I mean.
The reason why we have to export to such an unhealthy, uneconomic extent is simply because we import too much. There is no sustainable balance as such.
Of course setting up successful light industrial enterprises is a logistic and costly exercise. Once established a high number of smaller NZcompanies incl. exporters will profit. The advantages are almost endless. I listed many in other articles.
Reading my articles you wouldn’t ask about modelling and in context you wouldn’t mentioned communist countries- which is stupid. You obviously don’t know how communist countries work or better say not work. Only some elements are really of good use. But that’s another issue.
New Zealand needs a more structured - NZtailor- made economy to resist the upcoming turbulences on many fronts. This is a different scenario from years ago, when free market mechanism were successful. The world changed forever and is changing daily – keep that in mind.
It sounds for many of you guys paradox, but in the 21st century only structured and organised economies provide the freedom of innovation and entrepreneurism, the freedom of setting up successful independent businesses competing with the world.
Just to demonstrate how complex and unpredictable the world for businesses becomes, read a few articles here: http://www.economist.com/
Without a structured, organised economy - including the private sector, policy makers and the government working together - very stressful – just a mess.
Kunst you are correct. NZ has always been a primary export lead economy, so why is Sheep Shagger worried about these markets being closed down. There is nothing to suggest that this would be the case. Surely though this concern is exactly why we need to become more diverse, add value etc and not be so unbalanced.
Perhaps if the country stopped selling off its agricultural IP such as has been happening, the rest of the world would need our goods for longer. If NZ’s quality is some way ahead of the competition then what really is the problem? The sooner we totally understand this the more confident about our place in the world we will feel, not always feling like we have to apologise for it or sign up to another useless FTA which screws NZ. Most importantly NZ can feed itself, which is not something that many countries can do…another point to remember and expolit anyw way we can.
I’ve said it before there are some forces at work which quite simply do not add up for NZ. Why the total reluctance to change and move away for what is killing NZ dead.
Again, something is very rotten in Wellington, anyone fancy a speculator? Loss of sovereignty as a side dish anyone......
NZ Gov't should stop spending all this munny , infrastructure or otherwise . They're spending too much . Keynesian economics got us into the current global financial crisis , and it is digging deeper debt holes around the western world , including NZ .
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......... The minimum wage decreases the number of jobs available . It causes employers on the margin of hiring someone , to not bother . ...... The more that government and unions meddle in the workplace , the fewer news jobs are created .
No minimum wage in Germany , Sweden , or Denmark . And they aren't doing so badly , on the whole .
Your " solution " Kunst is for more governmental dictation to the private sector , more government projects , increased borrowings , and tariffs against foreign contractors ?
My solution is for a much reduced government spend . For policies that assist innovation and for small businesses to start-up . Reduce unemployment by creating a business friendly environment . Simplify and reduce red-tape and compliance costs . Open up ACC to competition . Float SOE's onto the NZX , with gov't retaining a 51 % stake , but no day-to-day control . .......... Encourage risk taking in the business sector . ............ Encourage production .
............. But what do I know , just more BS from the Gummster , ay Mr Muldoon !
'Genius lies not in the thinking of ideas, but in the ability to execute the ideas'.
Clearly not too many genius's in the Honey Pot at Wellington.
Gummy - I like the 'open up ACC to competition' model. When that was in last time we were able to save HEAPS of $ by going to a private insurer.
GBH you simply can't compare those countries to NZ - Do you need to be told why? Sweden & Denmark don't even operate in the defunct and bankrupt fractional reserve system as a start, and the other is a high value high quality engineering lead economy. Thats before you factor in such things as divided racially as NZ is....All three countries you mentions feature high up the educational and socially desireably lists which NZ tends to feature at the lower end of....want more?
You were joking eh?
..and in addition to that, so far they don’t need to introduce a minimum pay, because businesses are able to pay decent wages for jobs. People in education (Apprentices) are paid accordantly up to 4 Euros p/h. Here in NZ as a low wages country - it is often a case of survival.
Walter you say NZ is a low wage economy and quote apprentices getting 4Euro hr - that is less than $8NZ. What do you think apprentices in NZ get paid?
My daughter in the UK, if she was to work in early childhood there, which is what she is trained for, would earn half of what she could here in NZ.
Walter you say NZ is a low wage economy and quote apprentices getting 4Euro hr - that is less than $8NZ. What do you think apprentices in NZ get paid?
My daughter in the UK, if she was to work in early childhood there, which is what she is trained for, would earn half of what she could here in NZ.
One cannot compare.
Apprentices in Europe in the German speaking part during an apprenticeship between 2 ½ and up to 4 years are paid monthly - average between 400 and 800 Euro p/ month. (2 days school/ 4 days practice)
Note: Only the second part of their apprenticeship the youngster are involved in the "productive process" - before it is educational.
Here more information: http://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2287.html
"Tim Morris of retail analysts Coriolis Research says....... "We've created a Frankenstein monster - a population of people who buy everything on special, and if it's not on special they're not buying it," Morris says.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10697729
Tim is saying nothing about the trend toward thrift and prudence...toward avoiding the stuff not needed.....but it is now firmly in place and when you see retailers offering 30 and 50 month free credit....you just know a major change has taken place. The credit offers by the way come with fish hooks inside.
By the way....nobody is bothering to collect data and determine the impact on govt revenue of the growing(pardon the pun) trend toward home garden food production.....anyone care to look into this. The toms and lettuce do so well in a plastic hothouse out of the wind. So many great gardening programmes to learn from. This is a growth industry! Increased sales of plastic sheet and supplies. Will this demand offset the retail decline.?
Wolly:
Interestingly it was exactly this sort of mind numbing marketing that helped stuff GM ( along with a lot of other dumb moves ).
Almost impossible to reverse as it's entirely self fulfilling.
" I'll wait till we see a special " - Retailers have no option but to eventually lay on the next never to be repeated offer.
The customers will then say - I knew if I waited there'll be a special.
Worse then P and impossible to get off !
BTO - two decades on...
I met a devil banker, who took my life away
He said I had it comin' to me, but I wanted it that way
I thought that any debt is good debt
And so I took what I could get, mmm
Oooh, oooh, he looked at me with big beady eyes
And said
You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-B-B-Buddy, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
Here's something that you never gonna forget
B-B-B-Buddy, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
And now I'm feelin' sicker, 'cause I found out for sure
The recovery wasn’t happenin’ and there really was no cure
He said that interest bill will kill you
But you took what you could get, yes, you took what you could get
Oooh, and he looked at me with his big beady eyes
And said
You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-B-B-Buddy, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
Here's something, here's something that you're never gonna forget
B-B-B-Buddy, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
You need educated
I thought any debt is good debt
So I took what I could get, yes, I took what I could get
And then, and then, and then he looked at me with big beady eyes
And said
You ain't seen nothin' yet
Buddy, you just ain't seen nothin' yet
Here's something, here's something,
here's something, you're never gonna forget
B-B-B-Buddy, you just ain't seen nu-nu-nu-nothin' yet
You ain't been around
Home gardening.....I look at the cost of the seeds and fertilizer etc and I dont do much it makes no sense IMHO....Im aiming to grow food stuff that's expensive in the shops and requires low inputs ie thats profitable for me....otherwise instead of paying pak-n-save Im paying Mega-mitre10 etc and they have big margins.....unless i can get stuff via farmer outlets....25kg bags etc.....
No one told us......no one in power BH.....quite a few in here and I will incl myself didnt see a strong recovery.....in fact we have been lucky to survive at this level......look to Steve Keen....he seems pretty on the mark as a professional....one of the few professionals of course to do so.....so I'll tell you this I expect the best of 2011 to be around 0% growth.....but -10% or more is more probable IMHO....
Painful adjustments.....yes.....but if ppl walk around with their head stuck in the sand....thats what they get......
Oh and kaikoura is selling "cash cow" properties......funny that.......no one sells a cash cow....
Now back to my holiday.....
Happy new year everyone......
regards
Crikey steven...all you need do is google to learn how to build a plastic hothouse..then it's toms and lettuce for months to identify but two items that cost heaps. Plenty of neighbours with compostable waste you can get for free. The investment can be small and the returns are untaxed!.....Every child should be involved in this. The chooks can be done on a shared basis with neighbours. Cut holes in the fences to give the hens some room to roam. Give the cats the heave ho. Ditto the bloody dogs.
Eggs - cant in my case highly alergic family member otherwise we'd have 2 or 3! Also the neighbours are a bit "upmarket" (their fantasy) to consider chooks, one of our neighbour's close by had some and others complained!!!!....so they moved....
:/
Pity, one chicken I rescued from a cat....sort of.....the chicken was injured but the cat didnt look much better.....chickens can defend themselves....the cat was shocked when i "booted" it off the chicken....
I actually started to look at piping rainwater and a conservatory maybe later and when I look at the money to do so it just doesnt make sense.....
What I am doing is gradually making my garden edible where it makes sense, for instance rhubarb is expensive, we love it and easy to grow....so im doing that at present. Toms can be cheap or expensive....I buy when stuff is cheap in season.....
regards
It doesn't have to be expensive. I get all the potatoes I need from peels that I've thrown away, grow capsicums, tomatoes, herbs and chillies from saved seeds and cuttings, and have never used commercial fertiliser. It's one of those things where you can start small and free, then reinvest what you save to expand operations.
It should be encouraged by govt Kakapo because it leads to savings directly. Households one million give or take...spend on veg about $50 a week....2.6 billion a year...cut the spend by 50% and we have savings.....oh bugger we have less gst revenue and maybe jobs lost in the chain...but hey the savings would be spent or used to cut the bloated mortgage debt leading to a decline in the interest payments...leading to more income for families.....
Well there you have it Bill English...close down the savings working group waste and convert the Beehive roof into a hothouse veg garden.....NZ can grow its way out of debt. Hell we might even solve the fatter and fatter health problems....Tolley could push for all schools to run gardening as part of the core BS.
Seems like the lunatics are now in charge of the asylum .
All this talk of frugality is a waste of time- much like climate change and save the whales rot.
If everyone were to become frugal by saving instead of spending then vast numbers of businesses would close, unemployment would rocket up and the banks would implode under the weight of money with no one to lend to.
We have a system of borrow and hope whether we lke it or not.
That's a 'fathead' approach to economics from you. The savings would lead to NZ being a lender to the world instead of a bloody borrower nation. Following your confused logic...more borrowing and splurging would benefit the nation and make us all richer.....madness.
Oh, nonsense. Being frugal and relatively debt free means having discretionary income that can be used to purchase goods and services from all those businesses, rather than having no discretionary income to spend on anything because it all has to go to the bank in credit card repayments.
Surely frugality would bring capital being spent on "value" business,rather than on consumer spam.Banks would have difficulty ,but then they or their successors would return to their proper function,to oversee the "banking" of money for trading of goods,not as an industry that creates money,cos it doesn`t create anything except an illusion that money can be "made"
Re not being warned that tough times are ahead,do feel that Bill English has endeavoured, within the bounds of not being seen to undermine"smile and wave"man ,to hint at the reality of our fragile economy.
Re nothing at all,does JK announcing that if National was not government after the next election he`d resign,surprise anyone?John you`re elected to represent Helensville electorate,too boring eh?
Like Wolly pushing gardening for health,mental and physical.
Councils ought to be under govt direction to provide alotment areas as in the UK. A nation of families that can feed themselves most of the year with home produce would mean household savings going up...did you get that bit Bill....you're the one wasting our money on a savings working group...bloody answers are free man!
Chew on this: http://www.ediblegardens.co.nz/?gclid=CIDcg8zznqYCFQQFbAodmDlLnQ
Digest this: http://www.mygarden.co.nz/
Wolly,as i posted yesterday,one developer has applied for change of use of a large sub-division to allotments in Hamilton.Be interesting if they get it!
All this talk from the pollies,about increased wages,growth etc.,where I work(cant name)we have had one restructure last year(lost jobs),and now they are going to have workshop early this year to find 25% cuts-go figure!Not very reassuring for peeps looking to invest in anything,just more important to feed the family and pay the growing bills!!
Thought I left an ell out!...bet they don't get an ok from Council...
Try suggesting management take a 50% salary cut at the workshops...that'll shut them up....otherwise ask why there are no bonuses for bringing in new work orders...look to the waste value whatever it is...hack away at the power bill. Reduce the footprint and rent out the spare space. Ask that management prove their worth!..
"Why didn't anyone tell us?"
Well anyone with 2 marbles in their head could work it out. However for the avetrage NZer,esp the youg ones, just don't care about economics enough to educate themselves and are more happy to float along thinking +thoughts expecting the universe to provide for them.
Ps Wolly has been saying this on this site for a long time now and there are people like me who have been similar on the outside world only to be derided by the halfwit masses. I'm well prepared unfortunately there are many who are not and I have zero sympathy.
And Olly, as an older New Zealander, is advocating a continuance of that same stratgey. Why would we expect the young to act differently, if it proves effective yet again? But I guess he, and I, will be dead in 50 years; so does it really matter...? ( rhetorical question, there!)
NY Greetings, to you Roger. I noted you had a ...well, let's say,'full' Christmas break. (Note to self: Try 'that' rum...). But sadly, 50 years will put me over the magic ton... or is that tonne... ...Having said that, I have to admit to feeling that age several times over the last week or two. See you in the soup......
Happy New Year St. Nick : It puts a fresh perspective into your noggin' , when you're miles from anywhere in a hidden valley ......... no electricity............ eating a brilliant chicken casserole ( cooked over an open fire , which we had to re-light under cover , when a tropical storm put it out ) , sculling the local rot-gut , and in the company of a group of happy guys , who between then , have no investment rentals , no dairy farms , no debts , no worries whatsoever .
The locals showed me their diet , they grow their own eggplants , okra , ube ( sweet potatoes ) , loofahs , tamarinds , papaya , pumpkins , mangos .......... And of course , lotsa manok ( chickens ) .
[ treated myself to a 250 ml bottle of Tanduay Rhum ( 40% alc v/v ) , 21 pesos in the local " shop "......... thats about 64 cents NZ ! ]
Yep,and you only have to over hear the conversations of the BBs in the cafes,the overseas holidays being planned,(due to the overpriced NZ dollar),coz they are the only ones that can afford to benefit!While us oiks,have to pay overpriced rent and houses!!
Who remembers Logans Run!I would vote for a party that stood for ending non performing pollies etc.!!!!Or is that too extreme?
And rightly so ian...it's the BBs what paid massive taxes most of their working lives...so pension here I come..bring it on....that's about $400ooo it will free up so I can invest in an aussie hole in the ground....or maybe donate to a political party...perhaps not.
I paid so I shall receive but I agree it should be pushed up to 70 and reduced gradually in value. That would mean less for you Lb but you have Kiwisaver benefits to receive!...and WFF...
look at it this way LB...the govt is giving me the capital and I will build it through investment into real wealth which I will allocate in my will....or spend on grog and holidays in the sun.
The pain may be necessary but it won't be shared equally.
The minority with the lion's share of the pie won't suffer, or lose anything, and certainly won't give up anything voluntarily (or be compelled to give up anything).
It's the already suffering majority that is going to feel the increased pain.
NZ's books may improve eventually, but the gulf between the poor majority and the wealthy minority will become much larger than it already is.
More rubbish from you amalgam...cos I pull no punches and give the current govt a good bashing too....poor leadership under Clark and Cullen got us into these property bubbles and they are the death of this economy. You crave for a socialist system where nobody is able to outdo any other...real Cuban madness...except of course the leadership for they shall live in comfort. And you continue to refuse to answer that question....why is that amalgam?....cuts to the bone don't it!...a state splurge with jobs for cronies and sold as low unemployment.
Remember that neat trick Labour did , to rid the hospitals of the ever increasing waiting lists ........ They simply tore up the lists ! ..... No one waiting , anymore . All the patients had to go back to their GP's and begin the whole process again .
Government ( whether Labour or National ) are incompetent , and ought not be allowed to run any business that provides a good or a service to the citizenry .
Wolly : The conundrum is that the populence cannot see or understand , that government is the problem . How to get the citizenry to understand that Nanny State is a self-serving , incompetent beast , which is devouring the NZ economy .
Roger Douglas gave free enterprise a bad name . But where else does efficiency of supply and innovation spring from ? ....
.... All those government think-tanks / yak fests / working groups / quangos over the years ... ... ever come up with anything tangible ....... ever ?
Gummy you are one of them.
Of course the government should shrink, get rid of red tape etc. but reading your comment, you are one of them who doesn’t understand - Gummy. When do we understand not to vote for parties but for capable Kiwis. All I hear is Labour, right left green, blue, National - old stupid political formular’s. When do we understand do challenge these buggers ? I have not read one response about Brownlee’s and other ministers underperformance - 10:55am. Frankly I find this quite odd.
What do you think about Brownlee's performance Roger ?
Obviously Gummy cannot answer my question and wupp - just disappeared into he’s “Red tomato Green- house - crambbling.
The public – us should highlight the ongoing problems in order to bring those underperforming ministers/ politicians into the media headlines for cross – examination.
As a consequence I’m sure it doesn’t take long until government ministers will perform to a high standard - otherwise they will be forced to give up their jobs.
@ Kunst “I have not read one response about Brownlee’s and other ministers underperformance - 10:55am. Frankly I find this quite odd.”
Well maybe that's because, Kunst, it's only you who thinks that they are seriously underperforming? Maybe everybody else thinks they are performing at much the same level as all Ministers' perform at regardless of which party they are from.
You have to remember, Kunst, that Minister's are not potentates. That's not how the system works out here, or in any of the Anglo-Saxon countrys for that matter. Ministers are us! They come from us, they are who we are. They are a reflection of New Zealand's society as it is. If Ministers are not performing, what do you think that is actually saying about New Zealanders?
@ David - of course societies come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, but like in any business, high responsibility in jobs still requires high performance. Paid by the taxpayer - I think the public should expect high performance of ministers serving the nation. In my view Brownlee and a few others obviously don’t and should be sacked.
It doesn’t make sense complaining day in day out about the government, like many do here - without single out the person(s) causing the problem(s) and take consequences - I described above. This is the only way for government improvement – parliamentarians judged on performance.
The awesome sense of freedom one gets Wolly , in a country not cotton-woolled with Nanny bureaucracies ....... And yes , there is a downside , no DPB , no WFF , no unemployment benefits , no state homes . Individuals gotta get off their butts and find work , or create a lifestyle to suit . And they must take care not to have , or to cause accidents . ........ No ACC !
amalgam - instead of complaining - and hiding behind the tired old "haves versus the have-nots" argument why not be constructive and put up here for consideration your manifesto setting out what you would do to solve the problems of the coming apocalypse. Keep it simple - your top 5 ideas in descending order of importance will do.
Thankfully I am a pre-BB so never had the inflated gross incomes of the BBs so I paid less tax than they did. Can I have my state handout please, Sir Wolly?
I feel so undeserving.
I am so, so ashamed of myself that I did not contribute as much as our dear wolly.
During my later work life I was continually in fear of some bright idea from a BB that would transform the organisation and followed within two years with another that would send it back in a circle to where we started. Each of these 'smart' BBs would gratefully received their hike in pay and promotion until they reached the level of their incompetence( attribute this to Murphy) and then shunt themselves off to another victim organisation -all with an enhanced CV, of course..
In which case you will remember the sur-tax at £19/6 ($0.97) and later (pre-Roger Douglas) the marginal rate of tax at $0.66. Did you save before you consumed or did you go into debt in order to consume, then pay it off. Have you ever had a $1000 per week habit? Did you even know what coke was then? Oh yes, and in those days husband/wife incomes were aggregated for tax purposes and a surcharge kicked in at a pretty low rate. (I know I worked for the IRD back then)
Ab-sol-ute-ly, Wolly.
However I still have a high risk tolerance and more than enough cash to pay my own rest home fees..... Heaven forbid.
I do wonder where you keep coming from. Lots of opining and short on tolerance for the less fortunate. So no need to worry on my behalf
John Key will disappoint just as everyone else before him has disappointed / Hundreds of millions of dollars of banking and insurance profits exported off shore every year back to foreign head offices / Local manufacturing exported off shore to lower cost markets / Educated young people leaving off shore for better paying and more interesting jobs / Multinational FMCG exporting profits off shore / Primary produce exported off shore with no real added value / Bloated social welfare system / Bloated local and national government / Corporates transfer pricing and avoiding tax = falling tax revenues / Corporate functions run out of Australia / High household debt / Fixation on property- NZ will just become a nice place to visit.
I am looking forward to visiting " the nice place " soon . But it ain't my home not no more . Me is taking the skills ( pass in School Cert. Englush ) elsewhere .
NZ : Nice place to holiday ; but why do the locals look so miserable , and why are they always grinding their teeth ? ..............." Land-of-the-Long-White-Face "
Well that's your choice Gummy. That's a right that this society has freely given to you. But I have a question. Given that it's not your home anymore and its only for the occasional holiday - much like any other country in many ways - why are you investing so much of your time and engaging in this site which is all about a country that you have turned your back on and left?
And I guess that begs a second question.
Why should we be engaging with and listening to you since you are no longer a New Zealander and you don't live here?
In a nutshell, why are you here?
Andrew-in-Finland ........... iconoclast...........tochigi ..........Bernard Hickey ( in Lost Vegas ) ..........GBH........... no shortage of bloggers here who are off-shore , temporarily or permanently , and who may have a different perspective on the Kiwi economy and politics .
" interest.co.nz" was open to all nationalities , I thought , to all who have a point to make ( if done politely ) ............ But meebee I'm wrong , and David B sets the agenda........
............. she's all yours DB , tell us what to say / think / & do ........ ( in the Labour Party , aren't you ! )
I don't set the rules, Wolly, but I am entitled to my opinion and to express it just as much as you are. If you are no longer living in this country and contributing to it why are you hanging out on a blog and constantly bagging it? My view is that if you have left New Zealand, then you have left it.
Isn't the better question, "Why is GBH bagging NZ?". From my reading of his posts, he's gone from being a home owning, tax paying, successfully member of the Christchurch printed media industry, to a 'bagging' ex-pat. Surely that begs two questions. (1) Why did he go, and (2) why does he maintain such an interest in the country that he wants to blog here? My suggested answers are (1) disallusionment with where we are/ are going, as a country and (2) he cares enough about the future of our country to keep in touch, and suggest, through provocation, solutions to our problems.
As you say; just my view...!
........ You're reading my mind again , St. Nick ! ............... Any dirty shit in there , go on , you can tell me ............ha ha de ha !
Hey , I love New Zealand . But I hate the politics of the place . As I've said before , Labour and National are taking turns at buggering up the economy , and the citizenry's will to work and to take risk . Welfarism , government guarantees , and bail-outs are crunting the spirit of the individual .
Really!...I guess we can grateful you are NOT the PM...it's not you is it John?...
'Bagging' NZ and rubbishing the NZ govts are two quite different things. We might all be better off if we put more effort into booting mps in the bum.
Stay away and harvest the wealth Gummy...come back when you feel like it...you're entitled to the pension too.
Thanks for the offer of a " pension " , Wolly . But I intensely dislike this retirement / pension / entitlement rubbish that successive governments have foisted upon the people .
When will we seriously question the wisdom of these policies ? .............. When the shit hits the fan so hard that the IMF step in , and issue their version of austerity upon New Zealand !
Why wait for that , when there are solutions available .............. Just that they're not solutions likely to buy alotta votes ......
..... Aha !
Dian Chu appears to me , to be making cases for copper to fall , and for it to rise .
If China does this or that , then this or that , if not , then something else .
And if the $US confounds septics , and rises , instead of falling . Then wot for commodities and gold ?
[ enjoy the pension ............ just gimmee the super-gold card , that'll be good for a laugh at parties on Panay Bay ]
Interesting train of thought, which I would like to give a reply on. I am currently in London, have spent most of the past 10 years here, with a stint back home until July last year. I am a proud NZ'er much as I imagine most of you are, and seeing the pride of the country pissed away by decades of the worst type of human effort masquerading as government is breaking my heart.
The social fabric is now, IMO irretrievably damaged, and economically/financially we are all but over the edge too. I take a very strong interest in NZ and what is going on, I regularly email the poly’s , which I hope many of you here do the same, as it carries more weight than this site if enough people follow suit.
What I do not see on this site is anyone with a good idea, I read lots of views from people who are clearly bright and clued up, but not one that I have seen is prepared to put themselves out there for their county.
I made a promise to myself, that if I return to NZ, that I would put myself out there or not come back, that is how seriously I take what is happening back home….Yes I have some ideas, and yes I would hope that some of you on this site might provide some real help (not financial BTW), because there are some capable brains here for sure, and I imagine some of you might even have some useful contacts.
Anyway, to sum up, David I do not believe that you need to be in NZ to take a staunch interest in NZ, however I do feel that there is too much vacillation and BS written here, and not enough doing. If people are writing to MP’s or other things proactively in the background, then say so on this blog, because it needs to be known, and maybe momentum can build. Who knows someday with the right idea’s and enough people, maybe even some accountability could be forced upon the establishment….
Hi Kunst, yes going public is the way forward. Agreed that writing to people who do not give a stuff is likely to not get traction. Outing them publically might achieve more, however take a look at the likes of Chris Carter to see how they carry on when outed, simply shameful. The people of Te Atatu need their heads read, and that’s just one example of the top of my head. We all know there are many many more.
While I am out of NZ, I am sorting some things, putting ideas together, and I hope laying the platform which may/may not if done well, get some media coverage, which is crucial for outing poly's. In order to get coverage of course you require numbers of people (not a march), in order to force into the public eye via the media it is all about the numbers. They need not be large, but it takes time. Trying to engage with people to gain their interest is the hard part I imagine. Guess I will find out in good time…
Like I said if I come back to NZ then this will be my primary focus….
Good on yer , LloydM1 ............ . I remember Bob Jone's NZ Party , how quickly he got 18 % of the vote . Today we need the emergence of a new centre right party , to challenge National and Labour , and to boot out the appalling ACT .
Commonsense policies , modest governmental endeavours , fiscal levers set to encourage small business and innovation .............. ahhhhh , if only !
............... ( Politicians who genuinely cared about the country and it's people , rather than about their personal salaries , expense accounts , and other tax-payer funded goodies ........... Gummy's just a dreamer , simple little dreamer )
Well as they say, opinions are like arseholes, everybody has one.
I welcome Gummy's contributions and I certainly did not suggest that he should go. But I do question why he on the one hand keeps bagging NZ on this blog when he has already made his stance on the country quite clear by voting with his feet and leaving it. Evidently he has decided he does not want to stay here and fight the good fight but has abandoned us to our fate, as is his right to do. But as a New Zealander it is also my right to comment, even if it is negatively and in a manner that may be unpopular, on that and ask therefore why it is he is spending so much time on a blog about a country he's left. It doesn't make any sense to me, and so far Gummy hasn’t made a comment about it except to spit the dummy and toss his toys from the cot. I don't see why challenging him about that should be such a problem? Anyway I don't want to get bogged down on this as it's not what this blog is about. I have stated my view; I'm happy with that.
Addendum - written before I saw Gummy's post above
"It doesn't make any sense to me"....welllllll maybe it's because you are too set in your ways..too quick to judge others.....inclined to the good old "load ...fire....aim" approach.
Perhaps Gummy cares about NZ more than most and believes rubbishing the govts from the outside is best.
By the way DB....not everyone has an arsehole!
Hear hear DB, have wanted to write exactly that post for awhile, myself. Nothing worse than pompous expats lectureing the peasants back home.
I dont have a problem with Gummy or other expats posting on this blog, indeed their different perspective can add depth to the discussion. However I do get fed up with the constant bagging of NZ from people who no longer deem us worthy of their presence.
Cheers, Sheep Shagger, my sentiments exactly. I welcome the contributions of expats here as well, but only in so far as they have something of genuine value to contribute, because at the end of the day we live here and they don't. And that’s the reality of the situation. Despite their protestations of caring for and love of New Zealand, they don’t live here. They quit.
And that has to count for something.
How insular. That attitude has an element of the "Tweety-Pie" syndrome to it. I'm a New Zealand Citizen. Born and raised in Auckland. I left because the specialised area of my particular field of endeavour wasn't catered for in NZ. I left the country in the custodianship of those who remained. Returning once a year , only to discover that while my back was turned the custodians have made a mess of the place. The traffic lights start at Orewa and finish at Te Rapa.
... .[ at the risk of being slammed by DB / SS as a " traitor " , for daring to see the world as one living room , rather than as separate mutually exclusive compartments ] ......
...... I'll say that even my little town of Rangiora ( population 12 000 or so ) is getting a set of traffic lights ......... And anyone who dares to navigate their way around Rangiora , will witness first-hand what a total shamozzle the custodians ( Waimakiriri District Council ) have made of the roading system .
............ But as an expat , what the feck do I know...............
I got a $ 12 parking ticket in Ashburton , 2 years ago , for neglecting to put 60 cents ( one hour ) into the parking meter ............ She's high finance , down our way !
........ my driver here , got a 300 peso ( $NZ 9 ) fine last week , for " obstructing traffic " ....... the good city of ilo ilo is rich , now .
There's nothing insular about that at all, iconoclast. That is the way it is. I also work in a very specialised high skilled area. My area of work has to be internationally competitive and it has limited opportunities in New Zealand. I also did some of my training in the United States. But I'm still here, so get over it.
Off on a tangent for a mo.Re-Jonkey resigning if they dont win the next election.Have I watched too many movies,but seeing how he was a currency trader....do we think that the dollar at such a high level....hes still got toes in the water.......hmmmm!Smiling assasin methinks or a fiddling Nero?
Hello NZ
NZ needs to join with Australia,drop the NZ dollar as its worthless.
Look get real we are not strong enough to make big boy decisions.
You can not run a on country on 1.1 million working
You would not need a massive government,
The country could be run from a corner dairy.
No welfare
Everybody in full employment growing anything that makes money,export.
Tourism an retraining
Young people leaving school go into trades,farming,building,fish,export
The brightest cherry picked for future careers in NZ
Who thinks we can borrow $300 mil a week for ever.
No free lunchs,pay back will be access to mines an fishing rights.
Wake up NZ
I don’t know if that will ever happen, eliteincome, and I’ll tell you why. You will need two referendums for that to happen. One in New Zealand, and one in Australia. And even though Australia as a nation is a bigger than us, its economy is not massively bigger. It’s certainly <10x bigger. And I wonder how Western Australians, South Australians and Tasmanians etc would feel about us suddenly appearing on the scene having bigger clout than they do in the Federal Government? I don’t think they would take to that too kindly. I’m not hugely knowledgeable about Australia but I think after Victoria and NSW, we would be the third largest state by population, is that right? Or neck and neck with Queensland? I wonder how they would feel about New Zealand taking as many seats in the Federal Parliament as they have?
Small and all that we may be we would nevertheless be a very big mouthful for Australia to swallow. And while you might win a referendum on joining Australia in New Zealand (and I’m not sure you would) I don’t think Australians will ever vote for it. In fact I imagine that there would be very strong, and passionate opposition among Australians to it, and that opposition is likely to win the day. So you can forget about New Zealand ever becoming a State of Australia. We need to look for our solutions elsewhere.
Spin lesson numer 8!
Here we always see dire predictions of possible bad things quickly followed by comments aimed at uplifting the spirits...but always you will see that uplift is eased back down with "however" comments and warnings of problems that may happen. This spin differs from the usual 'look back with excuses and forward toward great expectations'.
*****************************************************************************************************
"The recovery will be a hard slog, but strong economic growth should emerge in the second half of this year, according to ANZ Bank forecasts.
But the rebound will be off such a low base that "it won't feel great", with the near-term outlook weaker than expected in the bank's forecasts just three months ago.
New Zealand was not out of the woods yet and another "negative shock" could yet push the economy into a double-dip recession, ANZ warned" stuff.co
The biggest problem judging situations – people aren’t’ thinking in correlation - in today’s fast and ever changing environment something quite new and therefore a MUST.
e.g.- a severe hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico 30 years ago didn’t affect the world – now it does.
Here come de monster:
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at the consultancy IHS Global Insight, said: 'There seems to be an increasing risk that the Bank could raise interest rates earlier than expected in 2011 to counter above target and rising inflation.'
Buit we are different right....we don't have rising inflation....rates won't go up here....our property bubbles and the bank balance sheets are oh so safe....yeah sure.
" Gang leader loses benefit - after 26 years"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10697935
.....anyone still fail to understand why this economy is in serious trouble!....26 bloody years and he is not the only one. Well done all those beaurocrats and pollies who are responsible for this. Will we now hear bullshit from Labour...that taking away his benefit is benefit bashing?...probably.
"Seventy-five per cent of our mines are currently not operating because of this flood, so that's a massive impact on the international markets and the international manufacture of steel," she told the Seven network today.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10697945
The bad news are just keep coming on several fronts.
Run out of wasp's nests to poke a stick into Muzza?.....the pension rules need changing I do agree and raising it to 70 with a drop in payout is needed. You can't expect the change to be rapid now can you?
Plenty of other places to prune the splurge and the waste. Go read that story about a bloke getting a benefit for 26 years! (in the herald)
I may qualify as one of the " older guys " , and I believe that NZ governments have shackled an unaffordable pension scheme onto the tax-payers' .
If bigger economies around the world are gradually raising retirement ages to 68 or 70 ( or to 45 in Greece ) , then why is NZ bucking the obvious trend ?
The US has an unfunded pension liability of $US 70 trillion , according to Forbes . That's a cool quarter of a million smackeroos per every citizen ......... Ouch !
It's not just the cost factor Gummy....given the advances in medicine and the move to stub out smoking...old farts are living to become old coots and even old buggers......70 may seem too early by 2050....thems what's being born now may well live to be 120 before carking it.
I hope not, Wolly! My spreadsheet tells me that I will have to go back to work at 123. That's a litlte too close to your projection....I don't know which is sadder; that I will have to rejoin the ranks of the employed in 2076, or that I have created a spreadsheet to tell me so....!
Oh I think 120 will be the 100 of today.....I also think investments in that side of medical whatnots will be very rewarding which is why I am in fph. The druglords that come out with a pill to boost the human lifespan will reap billions every day. I want a plug me in and sort me out while I sleep whatnot please...
I prefer quality of life over quantity, despite what the drug company's PR machine spins. I have both parents and both in-laws still alive - in their 80's and 90's, and other, alone, 90yr olds in the family.
While it is a priviledge to still have them all with us, I wonder sometimes about the quality in their lives. One (of the younger ones) is in permament hospital care for the mentally challenged (he propositions his daughter when she visits him, though to be fair to him she is a rather attractive lady and looks a lot like her mother at the same age). He lives in a world of his own unaware of friends and family.
The others remind me very much of the programme 'Waiting for God'. They basically just sit at home as while their minds are still ok their bodies (and balance) have packed it in, Medicine is very much keeping them alive. They are losing their confidence in their ability in dealing with bankers, local authorities etc. They are unable to travel more than around 30mins in a car so aren't able to visit family for 'a break'. They all have loving and supportive families but I have said to my kids, if i get tot hat stage drop me off a cliff. Yes they are alive, they love to have family visit them, but there is no quality in their life - it is slightly more than an existence. Sometimes I think the one with dementia is the lucky one.
Give me a shorter, quality life, than a long drawn-out existence.
I rather liked that show , " Waiting For God " . The two lead characters showed alotta spirit in their daily run in with the bureaucracy of the home and the local town .
And that is a point which I have been banging on aboot , at length , not to let pointy headed fools in Wellington to dictate to us how and when we should " retire " . Bugger them . Fight on ! Grab yer zimmer frame , and chug on down to your place of work .
Tell Bill English that NZ Super ( a.k.a. the pension ) ought to be just a top-up for those who need it , not a lifestyle for all who are 65 or over .
I'm just the " ideas " guy . Someone with actual talent or ability has to solve the problem of how to implement the plan .
But signalling to the populence that the times are a changing , and that their " entitlements " are at risk , is a prudent first step .
Some plans to raise " retirement " to 67 or 68 years by 2050 or later , overlook the little fact that many of the BB's will be dead by then , anyway .
And some BBers won't get that pension at all; that they have paid for all their lives...so I guess it evens out somewhere along the lines?
That's a fair comment NA...a point often overlooked by many...similar to the govt pension scheme for state employees...now closed.....when you retire they send you a nice letter pointing out your entitlement... it all looks so good...but they leave out the last page with the the lump sum option!
Here is a word of advice to said state workers one and all...take the lump sum. The reason is simple...invest it yourself in a bank term deposit or other 'safe' place and even if the return is a bit lower than the govt pension payment....at least your family retain the capital when you cark it....if you opt for the pension payment...half the payout is all the spouse gets when you snuff it...and when the spouse departs so does the capital leaving the grandkids with memories..no money!
in the interests of sharing our ideas, i wonder if the webmasters here would be able to assemble something for 2011 where we can register and/or vote on policy ideas......
personally i'd like to see what i do or do not have in common with you lot.....i think there might be some surprises and also it might give us a platform to explore policy ideas.......rather than just sitting here and bagging that dirty old traitor GBH for doing exactly what i would do if I was able to.......must.....suppress.....green...eyed....monster.......
At last someone asks the right question. There is a lot of academic intellectual talent among the visitors to this publication. It needs to be harnessed (harvested?) We are told our "leaders" do read these pages. To progress the thought, here are some suggestions. Interest.co.nz and Hickey and co should consider providing the following
(a) A suggestions page
(b) A business ideas page for ideas on how NZ could increase its business base (growth?), new ideas, new businesses in which NZ could achieve global first-class effectiveness. For what it's worth, in my opinion, NZers have lots of ideas (you know ,number 8 fencing wire), others have the capacity to implement them. What is needed is a government sponsored forum where ordinary NZer's can post their bright ideas, and if another NZer, reading that bright idea can see an opportunity and can exploit it, and employ people, and make money. The only thing I don't have an answer for is how the "original idea" can be protected and rewarded. Perhaps the government could underwrite the royalties to the inventor.
(c) Interest.co.nz list the best ideas for the month
(d) Contributors vote on them
As you point out icono...how to reward the 'thinker'.....I keep mum re my tourism idea because to explain it would be to give it away. There is no govt beaurocrat with the task of registering such ideas...no legal protection.
It would probably be easier to 'build' such protection than to knock out a bike track.
And so the fantastic idea that would have brought in billions in revenue is lost in the wind.
I agree – when the disconnection between the public and our politicians is increasing – democracy is at risk. The media and people involved in media should play a bigger role helping, to return to democratic principles and as a consequence a better New Zealand.
Months ago I also made proposals for Bernard, asking politicians appearing on his site 5- 10 questions coming from us bloggers – so far without success.
I possible good start could be "Community Forum's" set up by councils - run on their websites. I'm still trying to do this here in Kaikoura - hmm very slow.
What is the best way for "Public Brain Power" and investors making money together ? A new section on Trademe ?
Lol - Flatter yourself why don't you. Your opinions of yourself, other posters and this site are hugely over inflated. Analysis is limited and is presented using what ever the bias of the day is. This attacts people with similar bias' who then tell each other how intellectually talented they are.
don't knock it shorties.......for all the halfbaked ideas we could come up with (ie how to legally enforce my policy of making all convicted fraudsters dress like pirates when at work.....i mean do the parrots count as employees??) at least it makes people think a little bit more than just chiming in to sledge GBH's rum intake, ol' nic's general rickitiness or wol's anti-communist fears.
and who knows, we may come up with some gems. for what it's worth i'd be way more inclined to listen to this lot rather than a bunch of wellington bureauocrats
.......it's a goot idea chum , more rhum.......... and not before time , hic ............ wot ?............. are those my feet ?.............bloody hell , ugly buggers , aren't they ........ no more shorts , damn fine idea .......... got fecking hairy knees since the rabies shots ............ wonder if a clinic could shift them to the cranial-solar-panel , hic . Where's Hickey ? ........... wanna fight !
Gotta run this investment idea past you gummy...Rhesusatherupy....train Rhesus monkeys to leap all over the backs of humans who are sold therapy sessions at $100 a pop...in exchange for peanuts cashews and whatever else might work...If the monkeys get too heavy...it's off to retirement.
Government expenditure (ie Pensions and Government Super and Welfare) is a dangerous topic. It is a magnet to residents of countries that dont have it. They're called economic refugees. And they're coming in droves. It's a serious problem in AU in the form of boat-people. 20,000 per annum coming from the middle east. And they receive welfare immediately. They have large families. A family with 6 children receive $1000 per week. It's costing AU $1 billion per annum. Germany has the same problem where 40% of all immigrants are welfare dependent. The boat-people problem is growing and at some point AU will have to close the doors. There isn't enough water and power and electricity to sustain 400,000 immigrants pa. Where do you think they will go. It's only a short hop to go the extra distance over the Tasman.
RBNZ says NZ's annual GDP growth from 2001 through to 2004 (on average) exceeded that of its major trading partners, as a result of strong net inward migration and associated population growth
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig2.html
The real debate should be what population size NZ wants. Is constant growth really that good? In order to grow how many more Hydro Dams will be needed. How many rivers can be destroyed. Where will the future oil and petrol come from to satisfy the demand of an ever growing population. Maybe NZ needs to start thinking about closing it's doors. And for goodness sake keep your mouth shut about the magnificent welfare opportunities. Stop telling the world. PS do they provide pensions in the Phillipines?
The well organised and managed compulsory scheme introduce in Switzerland in 1947 is struggling. How are we doing in NZ - hmmm ?
http://www.swissstyle.com/swiss-pensions
Raising the age of national super is needed but a that's a bit of a red herring. If government cut-backs are the order of the day, then the amount of super pay needs to be reduced sooner rather then later.
I know that is probably not acceptable to you Wally as that actually might affect 'you', far better to bleat on about the government doing all sorts of things but of course not touching your sacred cow. You guys 60 plus (not you Gummy as you don't seem to be so motivated by self interest) are a joke if you rant about things but don't want accept any cuts that would affect you. So, how about giving the rest of us a rest from your lectures and we'll simply get on with it.
Here's an instance of people getting on with it instead of spending time on a blog trying to tell others what to do. Had New Year's Eve dinner with a group including a person in management of a restaurant/bar company that operates 28 premises in various cities(range of premises) in good ole Aotearoa. Thought if anyone has their finger on the pulse, they might as they are retailing to the discretionary dollar, so asked 2 questions:
* How has business been affected by the recession?
Answer: What recession?
*What proportion of clientele are business clientele, and has there been a decrease in patronage?
Answer: Lower order outlets cater to non-businesss clientele and patronage has not declined. Higher order premises cater to a significant business patronage, especially lunch and about 50% for dinner. No decline in Auckland , some in Wellington but now getting back to normal. They have been upgrading various premises substantially in recent times (won't mention specifics for privacy reasons)
Agree with you there , muzza . And it is not just the pension , but all government spending in NZ . That includes healthcare / ACC / education ( gasp ! ) ........... We are spending beyond our means . To the tune of $ 300 million per week , currently .
Unless the government and the citizens become aware of this , we saddle future generations with an unbearable burden of taxes . ......... I for one , feel that we have no right to place a millstone of debt repayments around our children & our grandchildrens' necks , to suit our current expectations of government " services and entitlements " .
Shame upon both National and Labour !
" Do as to others as you would have them do to you " seems to be a good start , as rules go .
I don't wish to pay the debts of my forebears ( not to be confused with 4 beers ) , and consequently don't feel it is my right to indebt future generations with my profligacy .
Simple enough !........ And an honourable way to behave .
..and on top of spending far too much, the government spend taxpayer’s money on overseas infrastructure companies, when it should allocate the money back into the NZworkforce. This would lower our account deficit, unemployment, would encourage entrepreneurial skill, innovation, research and engineering.
If pension age was raised...Who the heck would employ a 65 year old plus?.. fifty year olds cant get jobs. All it means is that they would be on the dole for longer.Which would mean more cash is lost from circulation.But then again i suppose we could employ more Social Welfare case officers to hurry these dole bludging sextogernarians along,and pheraps fit them with electrode prodders to stop them snoozing in the doctors waiting rooms.
Ive got a better idea for saving money!...Cut the beehive gravy train down to thirty mp.s...and if they are rich dont pay them.Same with the Councils..The rich can then give something back in Public service.
Govt should fund motorbike world exploration trips for all over 65s and force them to go...across the Simpson, then via Sumatra to Burma and on through the modest mountains to the north before crossing the Gobi...by then bugger all will still be in the saddle..spare bikes can be railed back via Beijing to keep the game going....
Call it the 'big kahuna bike trip'....airlift 65 year olds to the Alice..kit them out with grub and map and a banger...then shove them off into the Simpson...prizes for those who reach Broom...Send a truck back to collect the discarded bangers...Repeat for the trip across Sumatra etc.
Muzza, back in the 80's when direct farming subsidies hit the end and we had a bit of turmoil in ag, one banker told us 'Lifestyle is the last thing people cut back on, no matter how hard up they are'.
I remember a while back a food bank saying that they were getting an increasing number of 'clients' driving up in BMW's and Audis etc to ask for food parcels as they couldn't afford to buy groceries as there had being a redundancy in the family. The 'clients' were totally ignorant of the irony of driving these vehicles while obtaining (yes they did give it to them) food parcels because they couldn't afford to buy groceries.
It has been said that in a recession fast food outlets etc do well so I am not surprised about the lower order outlets. It is the business ones that are interesting.
A friend who works at a large govt dept said that 200 staff in their office, are about to lose their jobs due to technology improvements.
We are going to see in the next few years a routing of middle class NZ. IMO it won't happen all at once but it will spread slowly and happen in 'waves'.
CA, you miss the time line/factor aspect...ie selling a big car to buy something "economical" snt something you can do immediately and they dont cost much to run short term over a smaller car its just petrol...also many of these families are heavily indebted, the stats suggest this....middle class surviving on credit being squashed out......worried about keeping up image.....successful looking ppl are the ones to employ......image.....I noticed this effect when my kids started going to the local school.....I simply didnt like mingling with them I saw them as too shallow and they didnt want me anyway, i didnt fit in I wasnt interested in talking about the....latest car, latest holiday....etc....funny thing I do my owm DIY and the comments are its a very high standard.....others want to pay someone.....ive even been offered work.....which is laughable considering it takes me many hours of graft to get that high standard....a tradesman doesnt work to that level....he cant afford to and the client wont pay.....what I am getting at I think there will be a huge adjustment in lifestyle in the next few years.....ppl will have to learn to do it themselves or do without.......a hard task master in a short time frame....I have 30 years DIY behind me.
Lots of jobs are going in Wellington behind the scenes I think....ppl applying for their own jobs etc......I think its not being talked about much.....the shallow types dont like to say......
regards
For "Middle Class" read "new computer program". "For working class"..read "New Robotics".Did anyone realise that the Sillicon Chip..would steal our lives away?.Cause our children to spend endless hours hitting buttons on a game boy,getting ever fatter as their addictions to fast food grows.Did the Upper classes ever realise that these Psychos on couches cramming themselves with the solo mothers life force,wont put up with anything else but total obiedience,to their addictions.Their lack of empathy grew as they learnt the ways of "Grand theft Auto"..The frankenstien has been created..Their is no way to unmake him.Their Daughters wants a baby at fourteen..cus its more fun than a puppy dog,...and when she gets bored Mum will take over. What then when the whole of the population is a social welfare case?..Talk about Sub Prime! They've already dropped the education standard so these twats walk out of school with a bit of paper. No wonder the youth unemployment is over 20%.They will be at home forever.
Cutting number of MP's, while a good idea, albeit a bit populist, won't actually save much in the great scheme of things. 120 MP's v how many beneficiaries on national super, sickness etc???
Couple of caveats GBH.
ACC is a different area as it is designed to avoid litigation over accidents and the alternative is that our Courts become more clogged than ever with people suing the hell out of each other - but would be good for lawyers if we scrapped it though.
Also, wouldn't cut back on education, as that's an investment. Have just been reading about Mark Zuckerberg (not a bad entrepreneur) and note he says 'It just strikes me as this huge issue that teaching isn't actually respected or compensated in our society for the economic value probably producing for society." I would agree and although he is referring to America, I but don't think for one moment there is much support or sympathy for the teaching profession in NZ either. I see secondary teachers will be asking the question next month.
Sausage factories Muzza..current flavour are Tolley's specials...best served with a slurp of national standards sauce. Not too sure about the US system...seem to recall reading that heaps of yanks are always asking the travel companies if they need their passport to get into New Mexico.
An appropriate thread!
"Combined Building Society, which is the issuer of deposits for the proposed 'Heartland Bank', has been approved by Treasury to participate in the government's extended retail deposit guarantee scheme which runs until December 31 this year." harald
On the education thread, had drink and nibbles Christmas afternoon around at a nephews.
Without giving too much away, he's a professional sportsman (rugby) and has 2 young kiddies at primary school now. To his credit he stood for the School Board of Trustes and now is the Chair. Seems to have plenty of time to do these things! Asked him how did he see these National Standards? He was very definite in his response that they were completely flawed, and although as Board Chair he feels the school is legally required to administer them, he reckons they are/will be a complete sham. So there you go, one non- Tolley enthusiast.
Well somebody likes you Muzza....long as you don't go commenting on the recession or the property bubble or the fiscal deficit or the cost of labour to build a house or the state splurge going on or the BNZ owning up to misleading the market......or the rising cost of living and certainly not the potential for much higher interest rates....and don't say a word about unemployment for me's sake!
Thanks Me. I do think when times are bouyant, people over exaggerate how good things are and conversely, when times are not bouyant, people over emphasise how bad everything is. Seems to be human nature. That is why a lot of people when making investment decisions find it difficult to be counter cyvlical. And like any debator, if you want to go looking for items to sustain your viewpoint, it can be easily done; many here on this blog seem to feature any bad news that comes along. As for what I do, I am a company director but don't want to get too personal. And thanks for your comments too Wolly.
No worries Muzza...hope you didn't sink too many tinnies last week...have a read of this warning:
"Brussels has called for sweeping powers for regulators to seize failing EU banks, sack board members, and impose haircuts on senior bank debt, aiming to ensure that taxpayers are never again held hostage by high finance."
"regulators should be given "statutory power" to write down senior bank debt, by any amount necessary, or to convert debt into equity. "Such a power would only apply to new debt (or existing debt contracts renewed or rolled over) after entry into force of the power."
Now we know why the covered bonds out here are so yummy!...bugger all control over the banks.
Expect Bollard to follow along when the aussie banks allow him to!
Did you see that post from speckles.....the great BNZ comment.....how they mislead the market!
A sage old saying: you value the opinions that agree with your own. Most tend to go opinion shopping, or forecast browsing, until they find opinions and forecasts that suit their temperaments or prejudices and declare them wise. A wiser course would be to value opinions that disagree with your own, to challenge your own beliefs, but it's not nearly as comfortable for us fundamentally sociable animals – the comfort of being part of the herd.
US Federal debt very close to $14290 ooo ooo ooo ooo......and Timmy the Rat wants it higher...HIGHER do you hear and now...right NOW.
Harhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahaha
god these debt-junkie central bankers are like drug addicts aren't they Wol?
they can always find an excuse to justify not having to stop the harmful thing they are engaged in.
shocking
and just to touch on the discussion re teachers above....what if we capped the wages of bankers at $100k and made the wage potential of educators unlimited? key would vote for that wouldn't he?
For you Wolly, posted the complete cover email so no suggestions of a quote out of context, I have highlighted in bold.
From the email sent to all subscribers on the 6/1/10:
Welcome to the first issue of the BNZ Weekly Overview for 2010
"Welcome to 2011 everyone. In all probability many of you are still on holiday. But having worked through and produced so much material already, if the release of the first WO were to be delayed until next week it would simply be too big. So voila – with a few changes. We have introduced a section near the front which completely ignores forecasts and sentiment surveys and uses whatever data we can scrape together to try and determine where the economy is right now – or just recently. Misinterpreting or simply ignoring actual data on the state of the economy was a common mistake last year when we focused too much on good stuff coming down the track and missed the fact that the economy was nowhere near as robust as we assumed. So we shall look to avoid the same mistake this year.
We have also altered the foreign economy section to focus less on individual economies apart from Australia and more on ongoing areas of major global interest and concern. These things include Chinese inflation, European debt, soaring commodity prices, a possible currency war, and whether US growth is close to being self-sustaining.
Best Regards
Cheers speckles...I'll email a copy to the BNZ every day!
Just found this in the Marl Express...... http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/rural/4512669/Quality-versus-quantity
"It is conceivable, in the period of unfettered lending of the past decade, that some may face losing not only a substantial investment, but their homes or whatever security was put up to buy land at prices well above what it is now worth."
I remember in 2001/2002 all the raising of funds for the wine industry and I just could not get the buy in. Everywhere you go in this world you find new wine regions being set up from South America to central oregon. They all with the same wine makers moving from one country to another, season to season. Comparative advantage lost.
Hi there Wolly and Speckles. Think you have just proven Iconaclast's point.
Of course if you go fishing for bad news there will always be bad news to find. But you can find positives as well. I posed a question last week who amongst us can actually testify to things being not so good- not many it appeared. I possibly have had my best year ever for some time.
You can read the 10 January Time 'Worldview' and get a more balanced perspective.(p15) .
Then go to p15 and find that in America, 'the crisis-however widely shared emotionally (read many bloggers on this site)- has hit only a fraction materially. In USA holiday spending was the highest it ever has been. 90%of Americans are current on their mortgage and credit card payments, savings rate is an average of 6%. The conclusion made is that 'the most accurate generalisation is that Americans have been living within their means, taking on debts they can afford and spending responsibly. Yet that statement flies in the face of conventional wisdom (sic)'. Guess what, it's no different in NZ
........ and if you follow Hugh Pavelitich's link today , a comparison of house prices in a new subdivision near Melbourne (OZ) to 2 subdivisions in Texas (US) , house prices in the USA are far better value than in OZ or in NZ . ....
...... The point of the article being , that onerous supply constraints placed by local councils/government in our two countries are substantially jacking up the section prices .......... assisting property developers in NZ and OZ to " landbank " , and cream the profits , hand over fist .
So , some good news there for American house buyers . ............. Ungood news for Kiwi and Ocker nesters .
.......... the gist of my post ( Hugh's link ) being that Americans are not so badly ripped off on the price of sections , as Kiwis and Aussies are .
The comparison was for 450 m' sections of $US 30 000 , vs $A 150 000 . Little wonder that the total house & land package in Oz/NZ is enormously overpriced , compared to those in Texas .
........... When do we hold local councils accountable , in NZ , for aiding property developers to rip off the purchasers ?
Try the following in the Sydney Morning Herald 2 January 2011
House now worth $10,000
Sydney woman Kathy Graffiti bought three properties in upstate New York in 2005 and estimates she has lost between $300,000 and $400,000 on her investment. She bought two properties in Rochester and one in Buffalo for a total of $250,000, expecting rental yields of between 22-23 per cent. The rental income stopped in 2007 and Ms Graffiti was forced to sell two of the properties at a significant loss. She has been offered $10,000 for the third property. She regrets not having done her research into the areas before going ahead with the purchase.
See SMH 2 January http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/buyers-warned-of-risks-in-bargain-us-homes-20110101-19ciy.html
Muzza, Muzza Muzza, you make me smile. My comment above relates to the wine industry, which currently is in trouble, one industry not the whole economy. An industry that world wide production wise was always heading for trouble. I gain no pleasure that it appears every second small operator in this NZ industry is listed with a business broker. I have also made a couple of other posts today that also highlight some positives out there.
Like you I also have had a record year in business and as a result of business improving in the US in 2010 even sold a couple of businesses. I know the US economy well and advise businesses there on strategy. The US xmas retail sales I have already commented on another thread. Also if you really care you need to dig a little deeper on those reports.
However, I do not judge the economy based on my own position alone or a few mates I talk to over dinner. There is a middle class that is by all economic measure being squeezed in the western world resulting in a demand problem which will also grow here. The prerequistes are here, we are just on a different point in the cycle. I care about others not just my own position.
I'm positive I can make the most of the opportunities they will present for me and my employees however a lot of people will get hurt. I have seen this all too clearly when I'm in the States.
Go for a run on Santa Monica at night and watch all the homeless park up their trucks after work and go to sleep. Go visit Christchurch and talk to some small business people there, whole areas when repaired will still take an equity hit.
Concerning you question you received a limited response from a limited population. No response does not necessarily mean they agree with you.
And this might be the reason why..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-07/boe-may-need-record-rate-increase-this-year-for-credibility-socgen-says.html..........the word on the street in Europe is rates will rise sooner and go higher than thought because inflation is rearing its ugly neck..the head's been in sight for some time!
Bollard will have little option but to toe the line down under since the market farming banks do their borrowing mostly out of Europe. Up there means up here.
Let's speculate here...1% average rise in mortgage rates equals how many billion leaving the country?....as soon as he gathers the courage to make the move, dressed in comments about growth and recovery, exit the property buyers if they have even half a brain. The higher rates are not likely to much good for the fiscal hole either. Savers will be allowed a smidgen more in interest by the banks once they have organised their little acts to display 'competition'.
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