This Top 5 comes from interest.co.nz's Gareth Vaughan.
As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to david.chaston@interest.co.nz. And if you're interested in contributing the occasional Top 5 yourself, contact gareth.vaughan@interest.co.nz.
1) Financial incentives can increase COVID-19 vaccinations.
Earlier this month I wrote an article suggesting the Government pay people to get vaccinated against Covid-19 as a carrot to try and help increase vaccination rates. A study done in Sweden suggests this works.
An article about the study ran in the Science journal which is published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The trial, between May and July this year, included 8,286 participants aged between 18 and 49 years. Here's a flavour.
Governments and organizations across the globe have started using incentives to encourage vaccination, ranging from payments of $5 in Vancouver and lotteries in Ohio to payments of €150 in Greece. Many others are now considering introducing payments for vaccinations. Notably, USA President Biden recently urged “[…] state, territorial, and local governments to provide $100 payments for every newly vaccinated American, as an extra incentive to boost vaccination rates, protect communities, and save lives”. Yet, governments and organizations are limited in their ability to properly assess the impact of monetary incentives because they lack control groups that are not exposed to incentives. Causal evidence examining the effectiveness of introducing payments for COVID-19 vaccinations is lacking.
Here we report findings from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) studying the impact of guaranteed monetary incentives on COVID-19 vaccination. We paid participants, drawn from a general sample of the Swedish population, SEK 200 (about $24) conditional on becoming vaccinated. The Swedish setting provides a unique opportunity to link individual-level survey data from the RCT to exhaustive population-wide Swedish administrative records for actual vaccinations collected by the public health authorities. We find that the monetary incentives increased vaccination rates by 4.2 percentage points. This is an increase from a 71.6% baseline rate, which is a similar rate to other countries in the EU, indicating that incentives can increase vaccine uptake even in countries with high vaccination rates.
In an enlightening and worrying article, Bloomberg's Zeke Faux went in search of Tether's billions. As he notes if the trolls are right, and Tether is a Ponzi scheme, it would be bigger than Bernie Madoff’s one. Firstly, here's Faux's explanation of what Tether is, for those who don't know.
Tether is what’s come to be known in financial circles as a stablecoin—stable because one Tether is supposed to be backed by one dollar. But it’s actually more like a bank. The company that issues the currency, Tether Holdings Ltd., takes in dollars from people who want to trade crypto [currency] and credits their digital wallets with an equal amount of Tethers in return. Once they have Tethers, people can send them to cryptocurrency exchanges and use them to bet on the price of Bitcoin, Ether, or any of the thousands of other coins. And at least in theory, Tether Holdings holds on to the dollars so it can return them to anyone who wants to send in their tokens and get their money back. The convoluted mechanism became popular because real banks didn’t want to do business with crypto companies, especially foreign ones.
Faux followed the money trail from Taiwan to Puerto Rico, the French Riviera, China, and the Bahamas. He notes that Tether hasn’t disclosed where it’s keeping its money, and the only financial institution he found willing to say it works with Tether Holdings was Deltec Bank & Trust of the Bahamas.
After I returned to the U.S., I obtained a document showing a detailed account of Tether Holdings’ reserves. It said they include billions of dollars of short-term loans to large Chinese companies—something money-market funds avoid. And that was before one of the country’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, started to collapse. I also learned that Tether had made loans worth billions of dollars to other crypto companies, with Bitcoin as collateral. One of them is Celsius Network Ltd., a giant quasi-bank for cryptocurrency investors, its founder Alex Mashinsky told me. He said he pays an interest rate of 5% to 6% on loans of about 1 billion Tethers. Tether has denied holding any Evergrande debt, but [Stuart ] Hoegner, Tether’s lawyer, declined to say whether Tether had other Chinese commercial paper. He said the vast majority of its commercial paper has high grades from credit ratings firms, and that its secured loans are low-risk, because borrowers have to put up Bitcoin that’s worth more than what they borrow. “All Tether tokens are fully backed, as we have consistently demonstrated,” the company said in a statement posted on its website after the story was published.
3) "The definition of high DTI lending should start at above five times."
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued its latest Financial Stability Review on Friday. Morgan Stanley banking analyst Richard Wiles and his colleagues picked up on some interesting points about housing borrowers' debt-to-income (DTI) ratios in the Review. In particular they note that the proportion of borrowers reporting mortgage stress doubles from 3.5% to 7% when the DTI moves above five times.
The RBA's Financial Stability Review has now revealed that: (1) around one-third of investors borrowed at a DTI >6x and ~5% of all borrowers had a DTI >8x; (2) the proportion of borrowers reporting mortgage stress doubles from ~3.5% to ~7% when the DTI moves >5x and is similar for those with a DTI >6x (~7%), which suggests that the definition of "high" DTI lending should start at >5x; and (3) >50% of borrowers with a DTI >6x also have a liquidity buffer of <3 months.
On Friday I reported that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has delayed consultation on how it could enforce long coveted DTI ratio restrictions on bank lenders until at least November due to Auckland's community Covid-19 outbreak.
The latest quarterly RBNZ figures showed more than 70% of recent Auckland first home buyers borrowed at a DTI ratio of more than five. The RBNZ has previously described a DTI above five as pretty high.
The charts below come from the RBA.
4) Singapore's travel lane partners, - where are they at?
As Singapore moves to resurrect quarantine free travel, The Straits Times provides a useful run down of where partner countries are at. It's a handy wrap for us in New Zealand too, to see where a range of countries are at with Covid-19.
There's still plenty of Covid out there, but most places appear to be more confident in their ability to deal with it now. Below are some details on Italy, for example, which was one of the hardest hit countries early on in the pandemic.
One of the first countries in Europe to be hit by Covid-19 last year, Italy has the second-worst death toll in the continent behind Britain.
Italy had aimed to vaccinate 80 per cent of its population by last month, and although it missed that target, enough progress was made to suppress infections.
Averaging below 3,000 new daily cases this week, infections are less than half the reported tallies during its recent surge in August. Deaths have also stayed low in the double figures since June.
Population: 60.4 million
Cases (7-day average): 2,845
Deaths so far: 131,274
Vaccination rate: 69 per cent fully vaccinated
Current border controls: All travellers going to Italy have to fill in a Passenger Locator Form online to facilitate contact tracing in the country.
Those who are vaccinated from certain non-European Union countries, including Singapore, will need to present a negative virus test result from a pre-departure PCR test or ART taken 72 hours before arriving in Italy, on top of proof of vaccination, to avoid a five-day quarantine.
Current Covid-19 safety measures: Most restrictions on entertainment venues in Italy will be lifted on Oct 11 for holders of a "Green Pass" that shows proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test result. The pass is needed to attend cultural events, as well as to dine at indoor restaurants.
Sporting stadiums will operate at higher capacities, as will nightclubs and dance discos, which have been closed for more than 18 months.
Mask mandates are limited to indoor settings or when a safe distance of 1m cannot be maintained.
Writing for Rolling Stone, David Browne details legendary guitarist Eric Clapton's financial support for an anti-vaccination and anti-lockdown group of British musicians called Jam for Freedom. Allegedly this follows a bad experience Clapton had with the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine. The article also delves into racist rants from Clapton's past and his support for controversial anti-immigration British politician Enoch Powell.
According to Michael Knowles, who Browne describes as "a Conservative young-gun pundit," Clapton's stance is somehow very rock n' roll.
At 31, Knowles is younger than most Clapton fans and thinks the guitarist’s stance against the medical establishment is staying true to his rock roots. “It’s terrific,” Knowles says. “There’s something really authentic about a rock star speaking up against authority. That is what rock & roll used to represent. And as it aged, it simply came into conformity with the prevailing established opinions of society. . . . Eric Clapton trusts his audience to make their own medical decisions. And we used to do that more generally in this country. We don’t seem to do that very much anymore.”
Jam for Freedom’s McLaughlin sees the situation in much the same way, and his chat with Clapton confirmed it. “He said we’re essentially doing what he and his contemporaries in the Sixties did, which was embracing freedom, getting out of government control and societal control,” McLaughlin says. “He’s told us repeatedly, ‘This is like what we did.’ ”
42 Comments
Well, if we're really totally honest here, who here 100% listens and follows medical advice? We all should be eating healthier, exercising more, losing weight more, drinking less, etc. Some of us are close to doing that, most are not. Good or bad, we decide ultimately whether we listen to medical/scientific advice or not, and how closely we do follow.
And mostly it's to do with laziness, because we're so flooded with information these days and our lives are so busy most days, we can't be arsed to take in most of it and deal with it. We have access to so much content and information now, it's hard to trust sources and sort out what we need to know or should know, and we're often lazy to fact check...
And so apathy or extremism is a symptom of the complex world we live in today....
I guess you mean that to be paid retrospectively - also to those who've already had their second?
Otherwise, there will be 0% compliance with any future directive for anything.
It's like the new Mercedes EQA @ ~$82,000. Above the rebate threshold, and buyers are waiting until it drops to $79,900.
Nope the idea is to pay those that don't want the vaccine but need the money. Personally they would need to crank it to $2000 and even then I would probably take a pass as I don't need the money but I'm sure the vast majority would be in the queue before lunchtime.
So you don't know anyone(s) who have already had 2 vaccinations, but if required to have a third would sit back and wait for the $2,000 ( or whatever) if they knew 'holding out' would pay dividends?
You may not want to take the risk and would do the right thing, but I'll wager many would.
Set hard opening up date of 10 December
Offer everyone (and pay retrospectively) $500 once you have got your second jab.
To stop people holding out decrease reward amount by $50 a week so that after 10 weeks you're out of luck. Amount locks in on the date of your first jab, pays out on second.
Easy.
What a vile human… does that sound like it comes from a reasonable and democratic person? NO!
And you proclaim to be deeply involved in managing a DHB or healthcare generally if I recall correctly? Well, I have news for you. It is little wonder the healthcare system in NZ is in such a third world state. Being managed by less than third world intellects like yours, absolutely nothing should surprise anymore!
For anyone without the time or inclination to read the Rolling Stone article, it's a smear piece which mostly avoids discussing vaccines in order to focus on ignorant remarks Clapton allegedly made 40-odd years go instead. Let this be a lesson to any other high-profile individuals with the audacity not to toe the line.
Why is the mortgage stress to DTI chart owner occupier only? Surely adding investors into the data would make sense if the goal is to target investor borrowing. Intuitively I would expect that as income goes up higher DTI’s feel less stressful, it doesn’t matter if my investment’s DTI is 20x if interest rates are 4% (equivalent of 25x DTI), my investment still not only pays for itself but yields 1% surplus that I can spend as I wish, hold as a buffer against interest rate rises or re-invest (so it does not really increase my stress at all whatsoever).
... someone may enlighten me : but I've heard that yesterday's sermon from the Labour Party Pulpit went on for an entire hour .... and , that the South Island didn't get a single mention ? ... WTF !!!!
Is this your version of kindness , Jacinda : ignoring everything south of Wellington ?
Sweden, Norway and Denmark have all opened up, no proof of vaccination status, with overall rates of vaccination 65 percent, 69 percent and 75 percent. Offering money to the age groups 18-49, when it is clear that the demographics most affected by the Covid virus are those over aged over 70, and/or those with comorbidities and it are those groups that are vulnerable- vaccinated or unvaccinated.
Singapore data 11 October "10 more cases have passed away from complications due to COVID-19 infection.2 Of these, 7 were male Singaporeans/Permanent Residents and 3 were female Singaporeans, aged between 73 and 93 years. Amongst them, 4 had been unvaccinated against COVID-19, 3 had been partially vaccinated and 3 had been vaccinated. All of them had various underlying medical conditions. "
56755 infected individuals over the past 28 days, not one individual under 20 has required supplemental oxygen, not one individual under 50 has succumbed .
I wonder... Of the 56,755, how many were vaccinated? And of the 1,200+ cases here, how many were vaccinated?
I realise that vaccination does not mean immunity, but it does lessen the effects of the illness and drastically reduces chances of death. I;m all for opening up like Singapore, Israel, UK, Norway, etc.
If you think about the essentially flu like mortality rate, and then consider this point from cowpat's quoted Singapore info, "aged between 73 and 93 years.", then what do you think would happen if we would accept that death simply occurs in that age range? That might explain that it is simply difficult to find obvious shocking data in those numbers when comparing vaccinated vs un-vaccinated. The vast majority of mortality occurs in this age range. Yet, we have this fear porn being driven to unimaginable heights by politicians. Twice now in the last few days Hipkins (or someone thinking he is important) stated that "the virus will hunt you down" and get you if you are not vaccinated... how ridiculous is that statement? Does Delta suddenly have the ability to sniff out vaccinated people and leave them alone, really... it just can't get any worse than that. Can it...?
Or in a video
This is misleading on Denmark although they have now reduced requirements since vaccination so high "Danish authorities were the first ones in Europe to introduce a COVID health pass"
https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/01/denmark-s-high-vaccination-rate-see…
"3) "The definition of high DTI lending should start at above five times."
"..In particular they note that the proportion of borrowers reporting mortgage stress doubles from 3.5% to 7% when the DTI moves above five times."
Stress double when it is more than 5 times........if it is multiplying than must be triple if more than 6 times and what if it is more than 7 times Mr Watson's of the world.
"The latest quarterly RBNZ figures showed more than 70% of recent Auckland first home buyers borrowed at a DTI ratio of more than five. The RBNZ has previously described a DTI above five as pretty high."
Gareth Vaughan, when they say more than 5 times is high....what about more than 7 times. In reporting should report what percentage in Auckland are more than 6 times or 7 times in article and than mention that as per culprit - as allowing - RBNZ, more than 5 time is higher ( using loosely more than 5 times to hide/cover real that will be more than 6 times or 7 times - which will look real bad - so disguising by saying more than 5 times as than it could even be more than 8 times or 7 or any amount).
If they know, now why is Mr Orr using is old delaying tactics to avoid DTI 8f the situation is bad - All to support the ponzi.
Mr Orr was fully confident that no politician will give them DTI tool so was insisting for it and now that he has received it to his surprise is trying all tricks to not impliment it as it does not suit his interest of supporting the ponzi as otherwise why the delay as should be implimented ASAP to protect FHB from over stretching under FOMO.
Surely when they have been asking the government since ages must have been based on some study / research / analysis and would not be out of the blue so why the delay ?
Orr's using of pathetic delaying tactics to avoid DTI measures is negligence at its worst.
He is doing everything to support al long as possible this ridiculous housing Ponzi, also blatantly ignoring the clear fact that more and more borrowers are stretching themselves to very dangerous levels. The longer this Ponzi continues, the more divorced it veers from fundamentals and from common sense, the more fragile it becomes and the bigger the financial mess once it all comes crashing down.
Financial incentives for vaccinations is a bribe. Obviously we don't need to waste time doing research to suggest it works. To bribe people into vaccinations is to condition people to ignore their personal responsibilities and encourage future backmail by the same recipients.
We have gone from an era of principled to unprincipled and moral to immoral.
I agree. I would have actually used the opposite approach: introduce a heavy tax on un-vaccinated people, to cover for potential Covid-related public medical expenses caused by their choice, and in case of beneficiaries just withhold a part of their welfare payments until they get vaccinated. Moreover, introduce a vaccine passport preventing un-vaccinated people from entering/using bars, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, libraries, public transportation, pools etc. Leave them their freedom of choice, but let them face the consequences of their choice. With personal freedom comes personal accountability.
Here you go, problem solved.
Carrot and stick is both required.
The cash incentive has to be meaningful and tapers with time. It also needs to be for everyone who has been jabbed otherwise it penalises those showing good citizenship and incentivises the opposite. Restricting freedoms as you say is just a consequence of choice. That consequences prevent the right of an individual to choose, not to negatively affect the community they live in - thus protecting the rights of the community.
"We have gone from an era of principled to unprincipled and moral to immoral."
Yeah, tenants are so unprincipled these days. I mean they know they will now never escape renting their whole lives, and their landlord is taxing their real productivity while banking limitless capital gains. But the least they could do is think about the wellbeing of the rest of society, I mean they owe us that much...
https://muellerberndt.medium.com/is-tether-a-black-swan-51095720b01c
Great actual analysis on Tether.
Would love a readable link to the Bloomberg article if someone can hook me up?
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