![](/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/feature_images/hospital-corridor.jpg?itok=2cXi0gBO)
Two thousand Covid-19 cases a day, thousands in hospital, hundreds in intensive care. Welcome to springtime in New South Wales.
When the history of Australia’s Covid-19 pandemic is eventually written, what happens in NSW over the next ten weeks will be a crucial chapter.
Like the rest of the country, NSW adopted a ‘zero-covid’ strategy for the first eighteen months of the pandemic. Now, in the face of a major outbreak of the highly transmissible Delta variant, the state has been forced to abandon that strategy.
There is no shortage of parties blamed for the state’s current predicament – the unmasked, unvaccinated limo driver who introduced the virus into the community, Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was responsible for the slow start to the nation’s vaccine rollout, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian who instigated Sydney’s initial ‘too late and too light’ lockdown, or the many Sydney residents who have breached the lockdown rules.
Take your pick. It’s all academic now. The bottom line is that eliminating Delta in NSW is no longer possible. In the Premier’s words, “We have to accept that living with covid is a reality not an option”.
The new strategy is vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate. And make sure the hospital system is prepared for the inevitable onslaught.
To be fair to the Premier, her strategy is much more optimistic than that. In a remarkable case of making a virtue out of necessity, the Premier has turned her loss of control of the virus into a positive plan to reopen the state and return some kind of normality to the lives of its eight million citizens sooner rather than later.
Reopening, and the freedoms that come with it, are contingent on rising vaccination rates. There will be no single ‘Freedom Day’ of the kind experienced in the United Kingdom. Rather, this is an incremental process.
The two major milestones for reopening NSW are 70% and 80% of eligible people being fully vaccinated. Under current projections, those milestones will be reached by mid-October and early November respectively.
The details of what will happen then will be set out in a road map to be released by the Premier this week. To date, she has only made general comments about what to expect, such as the ability to go to the pub again at 70%.
Transparency is obviously important so that businesses and institutions can start planning now for reopening.
The elephant in the room is the coming divide between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Many of the freedoms returning in October and November will only be available to people who have been fully vaccinated. For example, the policy in pubs will be ‘no jab, no pint’.
Limiting freedoms to the fully vaccinated serves two purposes. First, it assists in controlling the spread of Covid-19 because the virus is less transmissible among vaccinated people. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it acts as an incentive for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated. As the Premier said last week “Don’t be left behind … When we start opening up at 70% double dose, it will only be for those who are vaccinated”.
Whether it is this message, the fear of illness, a sense of community obligation, or some combination of these, vaccination rates have taken off in NSW in recent weeks. The change is especially acute in the Western Sydney hotpots where linguistic, cultural, and religious issues were seen as barriers to vaccination. From a slow start, first dose rates in many of these areas have quickly climbed above 80%.
The NSW Premier’s fundamental shift from a zero-covid strategy to one of living with covid rests entirely on a rapid vaccine rollout. She has been lucky that the Prime Minister has been able to deliver the necessary Pfizer vaccines. In just the last month he has rustled up an additional one million doses from Poland, half a million from Singapore, and four million from the UK.
The success or failure of the Premier’s new strategy may ultimately be determined by the choice of 70% and 80% full vaccination as the key milestones for reopening. Like all sensible politicians struggling with this pandemic, she asserts that the choice is based on ‘the medical advice’. According to the expert modelling, the levels chosen will enable the provision of greater freedoms without the number of Covid-19 cases blowing out and the hospital system being overwhelmed.
The daily number of new Covid-19 cases should peak in the next two weeks. Hospitalisations are expected to peak in later October. As of 8 September, NSW has approximately 1,200 Covid-19 patients in hospital of whom about 190 are in intensive care. Hospitalisations are projected to peak somewhere between 2,200 and 3,900 with those in ICU approaching 1,000. The latter would comprise the usual ICU population of about 400 plus an additional 500-600 attributable to Covid-19.
Fortunately, NSW has used the last eighteen months to significantly increase its ICU capacity from about 600 to 1,550. The NSW Health graph below shows projections for ICU occupancy in the coming months. It indicates that the new ‘surge capacity’ should cope with the peak demand.
Source - NSW Health
The death toll so far from the current NSW outbreak is around 130. Projections suggest there will be hundreds more, rather than thousands. Covid-19 is primarily a killer of the unvaccinated. The rising rate of vaccination, together with rapidly improving methods for treating Covid-19, will limit deaths.
Perhaps in an attempt to lessen the shock, the Premier has pointed out that before the pandemic NSW’s average annual death toll from the flu was 600-800 people. She says that “it is a scary time, but it is also a time for us to look to the future with optimism and hope”.
The Premier’s task of selling her plan is aided by ‘lockdown fatigue’ and frustration at restrictions on travel, both within Australia and internationally. There is a growing recognition of the social, health, and economic costs of NSW being ‘closed’.
Tourism, entertainment, and educating foreign students are all significant contributors to the NSW economy that are suffering under Covid-19 restrictions, particularly the closed border. Last week, Netflix announced that it is moving production of the latest Chris Hemsworth movie Extraction 2 from NSW to the Czech Republic. This is rumoured to be attributable to the uncertainties in Australia created by Covid-19.
No doubt the Premier is alert to the economic benefits for NSW if it becomes the first Australian state to reopen and start ‘living with covid’. First mover advantage will give it a competitive edge over Victoria in welcoming back foreign students and over Queensland in attracting foreign tourists and TV producers.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is an ardent cheerleader for NSW’s new strategy. Like the NSW Premier, he is keen to reopen the country’s borders. In his words, “whether it's the tourists, the students, the skilled workers, the connection with the rest of the world, the trade that comes from that - all of that is essential to Australia's future prosperity”.
In a sign of support for NSW’s strategy, Qantas has announced plans to recommence flights from mid-December to the UK, the US, Singapore, Canada, and Japan. It will be strange indeed if Sydneysiders are able to fly, without hotel quarantine at either end, to London and New York, but not to Perth and Auckland.
Time will tell if NSW’s new strategy is a success. The stakes are high for the Premier and for her state.
Achieving ‘covid-resilience’ was never going to be easy for Australia. The Economist expressed it well last week – “Throughout the pandemic the zero-covid countries have been the envy of the world. The final stretch, however, will be their toughest.”
Ross Stitt is a freelance writer and tax lawyer with a PhD in political science. He is a New Zealander based in Sydney. His articles are part of a new 'Understanding Australia' series.
70 Comments
full speed ahead and be dammed of the consequences,
newspaper reports today that NSW Health officials advised the state’s crisis cabinet to reopen the economy when vaccination levels were closer to 85 per cent but were overruled by Premier Gladys Berejiklian and senior ministers, who said 70 per cent cover was sufficient.
Brock,
We have had 850 odd C-19 cases and our ICU's are at capacity in Auckland. If we decide to live with Covid 19 at 80% vaccination rate our hospitals will be overwhelmed by 1000%+. I'm a Dr at MMH. This is not just an educated opinion but based on best data. Secondary effects are no elective operating or medical out-patients. Cancer diagnostics and treatment on hold for months. Joint replacement waiting lists are around the 12 month mark, that'll look like 2-3 years. That's what living with Covid will look like it we do it with inadequate numbers vaccinated. 99.2% of C-19 admissions in the USA now are unvaccinated. Vaccines are the only way to open up while keeping our health sector functioning.
I'm not happy with JA as the vaccination programme should have been completed by now. We should be in a much better position than we are. The Government are going to need to incentivise the population to vaccinate to get us over 90%. With holding access to indoor facilities if unvaccinated where crowds exist (aeroplanes, pubs, cinemas) or offering financial incentives to get jabbed are going to be needed (or measures like that). None of this has had any mention so far and that is a huge concern to me and my colleagues.
Yeah, I have no problem with it being at 85% or 90% but at some point in the coming months, we do have to drop this elimination nonsense and open our borders.
It's also a disgrace that our health system is in such a state to start with and that our vaccination program is running so far behind the rest of the developed world.
Positivity is a good thing but we need to be wary of hopium, those vaccination percentages aren't just a representation of the population who have had the opportunity to get jabbed, they are the points at which the hospital system won't get overloaded by the unvaccinated during an uncontrolled spread.
If the hospital system gets overloaded it's not just antivaxers that will be hurt, it will be everyone who needs medical treatment of any form.
The government seems to have unlimited funds available to be printed and spent on lockdowns and other Ardern vanity projects.
Their priorities for our health system seem to be setting up a parallel Maori health system instead of scaling it to deal with endemic covid or heaven forbid even paying our nurses enough to retain them.
Jacinda is being evasive about when we are opening up because she doesn't want us to find out the answer. Their plan is to keep us locked in and separated from our friends and family overseas for a long long time to come yet.
The reality is we are not a wealthy country. We don't have mining royalties we are still essentially funded by exports of dairy and kiwifruit.
Our health system is always going to be a much poorer cousin of Australia's, where wages are much higher and conditions much better.
What are we meant to do about that? Genuine question. Because accepting reality is a helpful thing to do at a certain point. We can train all the smartest doctors and nurses we like, but we are always going to lose half of them to overseas opportunities. The people who stay here do so because of family or because they've already made all their money overseas and can afford to move here now.
Theres no point painting lipstick on a pig, and our response needs to recognise this truth. It does, I believe, and I can't think of any better approach than what is being rolled out currently in my opinion.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I agree with everything you said. At least NSW did something about increasing their ICU capacity. We have been pathetic & not increased our ICU nursing capacity & now the country is going to suffer with many more lockdowns, & many more deaths & suffering from the secondary effects. The economy is now going to have the worst decade ever & debt as a % of GDP will just keep on increasing. All because of poor planning by this government.
ICU beds is not the issue. It is trained staff to look after the patients in them. It's been raised with serial governments and under resourced for 20 years. We can't build our way out of this. An ICU specialist still takes 8 years after qualifying as Dr to produce and 4 years for an ICU nurse. Our capacity is capped, there is no circuit breaker that works in this time frame. Vaccines are it.
Stop perpetuating lies. In Israel 60% of hospitalisations are vaccinated. https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-bl…
Thanks for the insight
In an outbreak emergency, where it's either turn people away or treat them, what sort of numbers would there be of non-ICU certified doctors that could run an ICU bed in a pinch, say 90% as well as someone fully trained? Would we have the beds for this?
There is a lot of 'crossover' between some specialties - particularly ICU and anaesthesiology, both of which are trained to, and frequently 'look after' critically unwell patients. In a worst-case scenario there would be an excess of anaesthetists/anaesthesiologists (same thing) due to the cancellation of elective surgeries in both public and private hospitals. Many would likely be willing to offer their help in such a scenario.
It looks like we will again be able to get rid of the current Covid outbreak in NZ but there will be others, probably other variants. We too have to give up the idea of "eliminating Covid" because in short you can't do that forever. NZ has to keep up vaccinating as quickly as possible before the next Covid outbreak and then we have to accept to live with Covid, protect the weak, accept to have some casualties, mostly the people who choose not to get vaccinated and don't forget, despite the daily Covid news, even at the worst time in the worst affected countries like the UK and the US, Covid deaths represented only a small fraction of overall deaths, it's just that other deaths are not being talked about.
We too have to give up the idea of "eliminating Covid" because in short you can't do that forever.
Why can't we? We've done it several times now. People seem to be treating it as if living with covid means no restrictions but that doesn't seem to be the case. Singapore, a live with covid country with around 80% vaccinated is looking at some form of lockdown or other restrictions right now because they need to get case numbers down.
Numbers in the UK are steadily climbing, what happens if the trend continues and hospitals start getting over run.
But whats the benefit of half assed restrictions which get drawn out forever over a short hard lockdown.
We've been locked down for around 60 days in total, outside of those 60 days theres been no restriction, life goes on as normal because theres no infection. Compare that with Victoria which has been in lockdown for 200 days with various levels of restriction in between.
We've done it several times at what cost...
- Untold billions printed and dumped on future generations to repay.
- Endless lockdowns destroying kids educations, businesses and livelihoods everywhere
- Messed up supply chains and rampant inflation everywhere
- House prices pumped 30-40% just so homeowners can feel jolly at how "wealthy" they are
- A million kiwis overseas made effectively stateless by the asinine MiQ system
These lunatics are going to run this country into the ground. They already have.
We need to realize that without any significant impact from Covid our hospitals are past the point of collapsing and experiencing an alarming loss of nurses. The need to bring in emergency nurses from the rest of NZ because of the Covid caused small bump in demand in Auckland illustrates the point. The fact that there are alarming shortages elsewhere in the country really means there are no spare nurses anywhere and that currently they are all working well beyond any sort of sane or safe 100% capacity. If we were to get into a situation like NSW all hell would break out. (think India or Brazil) It is only sensible therefore for the government to do everything within it's power to isolate us from this outcome.
You would think that they would have the sense to do everything within their power to retain Nurses, but they seem totally hell bent on treating them like dirt.
Have you noticed how the media regularly rabbit on about the poor old teachers during covid and say b-all about health workers in comparison?
Teachers are getting fully paid sitting at home doing not so much. Health workers have worked through all lockdowns in uncomfortable gear and at hectic rate.
Seems the nurses need to go and poach the media relations team from the teachers union.
I think that the nurses are too punch drunk to fight, the NZNO are useless and have let them down at every turn over the years. Teachers on the other hand have a very short working day and year, so have lots of time and energy to propoganderize.
Also note that labor are very pro teachers and I suspect that a lot of their members are teachers.
Utter bollocks. Teachers are connecting with students via Zoom, creating resources to provide work for parents to supervise. Now that most of the country is at Level 2, teachers will be flat out trying to fill gaps in learning lost through lockdown. Secondary teachers will be under pressure to prepare senior students for NCEA exams. This is an example of a regrettable tendency by some people to mindlessly bash teachers as a group and it shows little understanding of the nature and demands of the job.
Cliopedant, amazing the lack of awareness there appears on here, clearly none of the 13 up votes deal with children in their community.
Most likely spend their brain power on real estate and not much else...
RN and teachers in this country are grossly unpaid. Lucky i work in the real sector of the economy..
"Fortunately, NSW has used the last eighteen months to significantly increase its ICU capacity from about 600 to 1,550. The NSW Health graph below shows projections for ICU occupancy in the coming months. It indicates that the new ‘surge capacity’ should cope with the peak demand."
Have we in NZ done the same?
(don't worry, it's a rhetorical question and the answer is no)
NSW hospital system is already overwhelmed , what hope we got in NZ with an already under funded and under sized health system for the size of population we now have
Stories have emerged from overworked intensive care nurses in Sydney that they are increasing sedative doses for some patients in order to manage their workload.
According to The Guardian, nurses have raised concerns that surging Covid cases had left them understaffed in non-Covid ICUs in recent weeks.
This is a spurious claim. It is not possible to nearly triple ICU capacity without training the staff required to fulfill the actual tasks. As it is not possible to do so in such a short period of time, I suspect this information is deliberately being used as propaganda.
"Look, 1000 more ICU beds!"
Rubbish.
Fortunately, NSW has used the last eighteen months to significantly increase its ICU capacity from about 600 to 1,550. The NSW Health graph below shows projections for ICU occupancy in the coming months. It indicates that the new ‘surge capacity’ should cope with the peak demand.
I've not seen or heard of much push in NZ to increase our capacity, perhaps that would be a good thing to spend some of that government insta-money on.
You can't just magic up health professional that have ICU skills. The skills required in a complex medical environment are now akin to the educational training of a GP of of not so long ago. We pay peanuts for nurses who are the ones at your side when seconds count or you are dead. Few seem to get this.
Nurses wages are similiar to unqualified public servants in a range of govt depts. No wonder they are leaving or not signing up.
Gareth,
I really respect your past work as a journalist. Would it not make sense to consider digging deep and look at the real cost? Economic as well as human cost. Personally, I said in the early nineties what would happen with skill levels in the trades in 20-30 years. We are right now at the point where the government acknowledged the many failures of neo-liberal policy over the years and nationalised trade education. I would guess that the health sector is in either the same or worse predicament. It will need disproportionate financial input to get even close to resembling a reasonably capable health system for the size population we have now. So why would that not be potentially our biggest challenge, economically as well as logistically, as a country? All you need to do now, ask the questions that PDK usually asks. Where will the energy be coming from to enable this transformation from such a dire state the health system is in…
This is the challenge with a democracy. Political parties are voted in based on popular policies, "popular" being the key word there.
Once certain parts of the system become so dilapidated they need a major overhaul, it is beyond a populist governments ability to do much about it because the voting public want shiny things and making major investments in something that people don't understand or know any different of will very quickly get that party voted out before they get a chance to enact systemic changes, which would take at least 10 years to start implementing.
So the problem is easy to identify, but the solution seems impossible to implement under these conditions. It's usually at this point that people start making jokes about the benevolent dictator...
Yes, great point you make. However, should that stop us from asking questions? And I mean consistently hard questions… This is no different than asking hard questions about the science and testing of vaccines by a not insignificant group of doctors, dentists and nurses in NZ. The moment anyone asks questions and is a little reluctant to join the big chorus of sheep, you get called anti this or anti that, or worse, conspiracy theorist. When in fact, we don’t need to be either to be alarmed at the sudden ability to change laws that until recently were simply not possible to change. So why now suddenly? Anything to do with scale and speed Covid would show globally just how bad a lemon we were sold ove the last few decades? And any chance for some journalist to risk their pay packet like a number of doctors and nurses have when asking just a few really relevant and pertinent questions?
I really think it is high time for more people to just employ basic common sense and not fall into this trap of buying into either extreme sides of arguments for or against something like vaccines. Lets face it, how many people in total die every year in NZ? And how disproportionate is the effort and coverage of the covid mess compared to other ills we face in society? Again, I am not trying to take sides here but am sick of the very scary and uniformly fawning chorus of the media sector, with no exception. Not even RNZ are capable anymore of seriously challenging a government of any colour or persuasion.
So I again, why should we not ask a lot of hard questions for a long time from now? Someone has to do it. And someone eventually will. It might as well be someone who has experience and credibility in being a thorough and to date seemingly unbiased journalist. That’s all I have to say for now.
I'll leave the vaccination subject to one side because it's become too much of a pain in the a*, but with regards to asking the hard questions, yes, yes, yes absolutely.
It's critical to keep asking them and asking them loudly, because even if they don't ever get voted into reality, it's the right thing to do and the best option we have available.
My previous post probably comes across a bit fatalistic and I have probably got pretty cynical after spending my career to date working in infrastructure that should be logical and as a result of good asset management and planning but more often than not is upheaved by politics every 3 years to the point that you give up having any hopes and dreams for progressive improvement.
But that's a cop out and we should always continue to ask and hope for better. So keep fighting the good fight, just don't let it burn you out. There will be a very small portion of the population that will see the intelligence and foresight of the question, the big ask is whether there would ever be enough people giving a sh* to actually make a difference. Hopefully one day...
So keep fighting the good fight, just don't let it burn you out. There will be a very small portion of the population that will see the intelligence and foresight of the question, the big ask is whether there would ever be enough people giving a sh* to actually make a difference. Hopefully one day...
This is precisely why I pay a monthly contribution for at least 12 months or longer now. I think ever since the press patrons had the option for interest. I f everyone does that, with even a relatively small contribution of a few coffee's a month, we will make a difference.
"Time will tell if NSW’s new strategy is a success"
You dont need time .... see Singapore
96% vaccinated and surprise surprise ....
Covid 19 coronavirus: Singapore highly vaccinated, but under siege from Delta - NZ Herald
We're not isolated, having to go through MIQ doesn't mean that travel isn't possible.
Lockdowns don't have to be reoccurring if we plug the holes in MIQ.
The countries living with covid don't seem to be without restrictions either - NSWs plan to reopen looks very similar to our level 2. Im more in favour of a month of level 4 and being done with it rather than perpetual level 2.
Ripping the lockdown bandaid off seems like the better approach.
having to go through MIQ doesn't mean that travel isn't possible.
Tell that to the kiwis stranded overseas who can't travel to their country of citizenship for love or for money.
The whole system is the special kind of kafka-esqe joke that only this looney government could come up with.
Travel is, for all intents and purposes, impossible. This government needs to be taken to court over it.
vaccinate ONLY the really vulnerable and let it spread
otherwise you risk creating worse variants
"Contrary to what you might think, the rapid evolution of RNA respiratory viruses actually has several important benefits for us as their involuntary hosts, which protects us without the benefit of broad lifelong immunity. One of those benefits has to do with the natural evolution of the virus towards less dangerous variants. The other is the cross-reactive immunity that comes from frequent re-exposure to closely related "cousins". ... the policies being forced on us by our public health authorities are knowingly interfering with this system. They are creating a dangerous situation that increases our risk to other respiratory viruses (not just to COVID) and may even push the COVID virus to evolve to become more dangerous to both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated. There are growing signs that this nightmare scenario has already begun.
"The Spanish Flu spread in the midst of the lockdown-mimicking conditions of World War One. During the first wave, the virus found a huge population of soldiers trapped in the cold damp conditions of the trenches and a near endless supply of captive bedridden hosts in overflowing field hospitals. By the Spring of 1918, up to three-quarters of the entire French military and half of British troops had been infected. These conditions created two unique evolutionary pressures. On the one hand, it allowed variants that were well adapted to young people to emerge. But on the other hand, unlike normal times, the cramped conditions of trench warfare and field hospitals allowed dangerous variants that immobilize their hosts to spread freely with little competition from less dangerous variants that spread through lively hosts. The trenches and field hospitals became the virus incubators driving the evolution of variants.
Normally young people are predominantly exposed to less dangerous mutations because the healthiest do all the mingling while the bedridden stay home. But the lockdown conditions of war created conditions that erased the competitive advantage of less dangerous mutations that don't immobilize their hosts, leading to the rise of more dangerous mutations.
Thanks to the end of the war, the lockdown-mimicking conditions also ended, thereby shifting the competitive advantage back to less dangerous mutations that could spread freely among the mobile healthy members of the population. The deadliness of the second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu is inextricably linked to the First World War, and the end of the war is linked to the virus fading into the background of regular cold and flu season
from this link -an interesting read overall
Singapore has 83% with at least one jab, and 81% fully vaccinated, stop making stuff up.
https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2021/06/singapore-covi…
Severe illness and deaths have almost all been in the unvaccinated.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/why-the-surge-in-covid-19…
You googled and scrolled, and posted the biggest percentage you could find without checking the source?
My point is that the unvaccinated, who make up only a small minority of the Singaporean population, comprise almost all of the deaths and severely ill. That too hard to grasp?
MSM belieber i see ...
Heres an update almost a month ago from their MOH
Updated advisory on COVID-19 vaccination at the workplace (mom.gov.sg)
"As of 16 August 2021, almost 90% of Singapore’s adult population10 have received at least the first dose of COVID-19 vaccination under the national vaccination programme."
Yes it hard to grasp how its gone down
Note to all the we have done everythign we could brigade -- last month found 5 1/5 million vaccine doses - and in the last year increased ICU beds from 600 to 1550 ! we have managed 250,000 just and i think 1 extra ICU bed maybe 2 ! the whole world knew that vaccination was teh only way out 18 months ago -- when teh global rush to find a vaccine started -- Here its a bit of a surprise - not unlike Biden and the Taliban!
Correct. There has never been a vaccine for a corona virus. Does that not raise some questions for you .... OR its a miracle!
Lets look at the one source of truth's explanation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSzCehQjF3U&list=PLhNeRwBqkeSX4HMuRW39n…
"So how did we develop this vaccine so fast?
Dr Helen ,... " well we always had the science, but this time we had the money ..."
Halleluyah
Cos there wasnt any money in coronavirus vaccines before ....
Those commentators alleging lack of preparation by this government could watch this speech by Dr Ayesha Verrall outlining what has been done to prepare for a delta outbreak - https://vimeo.com/595670195
And on the Australian hospital system and covid this is interesting:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/09/11/exclusive-…
Immunity is basically gone after 6 months. People don't realise they are signing up to be vaccinated two or three times a year now, with an experimental vaccine with zero long term studies as to the side effects of repeated and long term use. By the time the lockdowns are lifted and borders are open, the majority of those vaccinated will be back to having unvaccinated status. Once all the hospitals start filling up with vaccinated patients like they are in Israel and the UK, lockdowns will be back on the agenda.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/80-per-cent-covid-19-immunity-lost…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.