The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines has offered hope that we will one day soon see countries returning to a semblance of normality. However there is no doubt COVID-19 has been devastating for the global economy. Global GDP declined the most in 2020 since the Great Depression with the loss of 8.8 percent of global working hours equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs.
A faster vaccine rollout internationally is expected to boost world GDP by 2.8 percent according to the latest KPMG Economic Outlook. On the other hand, a global delay in the rollout of vaccinations until the end of 2021 would mean a 1.2 percent hit to global GDP. At this stage the vaccination rollout between nations has been very uneven with Israel leading the way and starting to see the economic benefits of its rapid vaccine campaign.
New Zealand, with its bold “go hard, go early” strategy was widely regarded as having done an outstanding job in quashing the virus. However, like a number of other countries that have had relatively low infection numbers such as Australia and Taiwan it has been slow to get the vaccination rollout underway and ramped up.
Economic benefits of a fast vaccine rollout
Israel began its vaccination rollout in December 2020, and like New Zealand, opted for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine. As of the 18th April, 60 percent of their 9.3 million population had received at least one vaccine dose.
Thanks to early access to the Pfizer vaccine, a centralised healthcare system and high levels of digitisation, they have now administered two vaccine doses to more than half their population. This was after having the highest per capita COVID-19 infection rate in the world in mid-January. They are seeing the economic benefits from their speedy rollout, with life getting back to normal as restrictions on movement are lifted. Next month they are planning to open their borders to vaccinated tourists and Reuters is forecasting a 6.3 percent rebound in economic growth if the rapid vaccination rollout continues.
No economy is an island
A recent study commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Research Foundation concluded no country can fully recover until every country is vaccinated since all countries are dependent on others for trade. However, it is becoming clear that those countries that get to full vaccination status early will be rewarded with a bounce in GDP, strengthened currency and improved consumer spending. The longer it takes a country to reach herd immunity (somewhere between 60 and 90% of the population vaccinated) the longer it will take for economies to open-up to the world and the greater the impact business survival and the economic recovery, particularly in the hardest-hit industries.
Will NZ suffer by lagging behind?
A recent report from KPMG, suggests a delay achieving full vaccination status and subsequently in opening up international borders would have a disproportionately larger negative effect on countries like Australia, and by extension New Zealand, impacting the recovery of the tourism and education sectors as well as those industries that rely on skilled foreign labour. It also leaves NZ vulnerable to further economically-damaging lockdowns if an outbreak occurs.
The argument has been that New Zealand’s success in halting the virus has meant there has been less urgency for it to rush the vaccination process which is true to an extent. However there’s no denying that terms of the OECD countries New Zealand’s vaccination programme has been slow to ramp up. The OECD's 37 member nations had delivered an average of 6.2 shots per 100 people at the 43-day mark of their respective vaccination programs. By comparison New Zealand reached just 1.7 doses per 100 people in the same period.
*Alison Brook is from the Knowledge Exchange Hub at the Massey University campus at Albany, Auckland. She is on the GDPLive team. This article is a post from the GDPLive blog, and is here with permission. The New Zealand GDPLive resource can also be accessed here.
32 Comments
It is cheap, but studies from Lancet etc have shown very impressive effectiveness too. Not quite at the level of Pfizer but definitely better than the AstraZeneca jab that most of Europe is using. If we hadn't already locked in our Pfizer supply it would be a no brainer.
When you have a leader of the country whose only work experience was to have worked in a fish and chip shop and demonstrated pots and pans, then become a activist, one cannot expect to see any understanding of the real world!!!
Just keep on squeezing the life out of those working.
Funny, I thought that pots, pans, counters and cleaning along with a large number of other menial tasks were the "real world" for the majority of us.
And isn't it amazing how so many people can go round stating that all you need to do in NZ is work hard and you can be anything.
And then when does, what a loser.
Well, there is something to be said for the Human Immune System. Seems a lot of people in MIQ recover just fine without a vaccine.. some perhaps showing no symptoms at all.
Guess there are lots of people out there wanting 3 vaccines shots per-annum. At some point this could damage one's immune response?
At some point this could damage one's immune response? Answer: No it does not please read up on the basics of immune response and vaccines. Seems a lot of people in MIQ recover just fine without a vaccine Answer: Overall no many do not and many have suffered disablement or death. Please read up on common viruses, long term effects, and recovery rates. If people like you were in charge polio would still be rife and there would be a lot more dead children and cripples.
@pacifica
So I'm against polio vaccines? That's something I didn't know about myself.
The polio vaccine was NOT a RNA [Ribonucleic Acid] vaccine. RNA vaccines are a NEW class of vaccine.
These vaccines are really harnessing God's design so to speak. They are RNA based. RNA contains one or two protein-coding genes. This is not enough info to do anything inside the cell.
Any cell that takes up the foreign protein gene will be killed by the immune system. At least that's what's meant to happen, and happens in MOST cases.
So even if SOME cells incorporate the RNA in DNA Form, into their Genomes, it would be hard to pass onto children. Therefore the risk of 'genetic engineering' [a fair term to use] is SMALL.
I'm NOT For or Against.. just questioning the long term effects on the human immune system. Since I'm soooo, s00000ooooo ignorant, I'm sure you can elaborate on the small amount I know, which I stated above - instead of question shaming me.
I look forward to your reply.
Zack - yes, what actually happens to these COVID cases in MIQ that after 14 days go back into the community? Are they ok? Any lingering effects? Do they keep getting tested every 2 weeks just in case?
Is there any research on these people given the disease is treated as a killer?
Or do many of them just fly out of NZ again after a few months and return to their previous home countries and keep reentering. Seems there’s a lot of fly in fly out going on.
I've heard and read SOME people have had lingering effects from Covid-19. Also reinfections of Covid-19 are supposedly occurring, though I can't speak to strains.
I imagine you have read such reports and probably heard anecdotes to that effect too. The NZ media-&-government don't seem to offer in-depth info for those interested but don't want to do a masters in genetics/biology.
Is there not a widespread view that we don't want a return to mass tourism, however painful that will be for some sectors of the market?
Speaking personally, I have no issue with a slow roll-out of the vaccine and if the government's timetable of the end of the year for full vaccination is met, i will content with that. Again, is it healthy that our tertiary institutions have come to rely so heavily on foreign students? I doubt it. This virus has given us the chance to revisit our priorities as a country and we should use it wisely.
LL - yes, there are many that applaud the decrease in foreign tourists and seeing more domestic tourism.
NZ is surviving reasonable well despite closed borders.
And the tertiary sector is hopefully using this time to refocus on their local regions, local industry needs, and domestic students. However Education NZ are busy planning and lobbying to get back to ‘normal’ - normal being selling NZ residency to South East Asian & more immigrants/students https://enz.govt.nz/home/recovery-plan-for-international-education-sect…
Interesting article on the ethics of selling residency via education - but only 20% make it in reality
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/advice/300281225/an-immigratio…
Is there not a widespread view that we don't want a return to mass tourism, however painful that will be for some sectors of the market?
Speaking personally, I have no issue with a slow roll-out of the vaccine and if the government's timetable of the end of the year for full vaccination is met, i will content with that. Again, is it healthy that our tertiary institutions have come to rely so heavily on foreign students? I doubt it. This virus has given us the chance to revisit our priorities as a country and we should use it wisely.
It's like a game of T20 cricket. The required run rate (vaccination rate) ticks up with every day that they only vaccinate a few thousand people. Pretty soon the ask gets so high that the batsman swing at everything and before you know it Hipkins is marching back to the the pavilion with head down. Another failed government policy. Nothing to see here, move along.
Is there not a widespread view that we don't want a return to mass tourism, however painful that will be for some sectors of the market?
Speaking personally, I have no issue with a slow roll-out of the vaccine and if the government's timetable of the end of the year for full vaccination is met, i will content with that. Again, is it healthy that our tertiary institutions have come to rely so heavily on foreign students? I doubt it. This virus has given us the chance to revisit our priorities as a country and we should use it wisely.
'NZ, with its bold “go hard, go early” strategy was widely regarded as having done an outstanding job in quashing the virus'. Tiresome repetition of Ardern's PR spin team creative messaging. Auckland professor of medicine Des Gorman advances a more realistic evidence based summary of 'went late at the last possible moment' and ' NZ has a very leaky border...and is particularly vulnerable' and 'we've (had) a lot of very dumb good luck'. 'Outstanding job', yeah, nah.
The NHS in the UK keep reminding my wife to book, unfortunately unless the border restrictions are relaxed for the fully vaccinated, it appears she is stuck in the slow lane with the rest of us. I told her she should go for a back in July, and enjoy some summer weather at the same time, but she doesn't want to do the two weeks isolation.
When this vaccine turns up I'm going to want to see supplies used rapidly. I don't want to find out that our version of scaling is trying to foist this onto DHBs or local doctors. We will have had lots of time to get organised, establish centres and up-skill people.
The NHS in the UK keep reminding my wife to book. I told her she should go for a back in July, enjoy some summer weather at the same time, but she doesn't want to do the two weeks isolation so she's stuck in the slow lane with the rest of us.
When this vaccine turns up I'm going to want to see supplies used rapidly. I don't want to find out that our version of scaling is trying to foist this onto DHBs or local doctors. We will have had lots of time to get organised, establish centres and up-skill people.
Anyone who thinks this thing is going to be over anytime soon and that tourism will get "back to normal" soon is off their flaming rocker.
Covid is not over by a long stretch, and unless the parts of the world where it's running rampant get well vaccinated it will continue to mutate, probably to the point where current vaccines may be rendered next to useless.
There is a good case to be made for us forgoing our vaccines right now and let those who actually really need it, access it first.
Once it is eventually over(ish) do not expect, even then, for tourism to be a big thing for the time being, maybe even forever. The world is changing, so many are now more aware of the carbon footprints of flying around willy nilly, then there is China, which I venture to suggest will not be allowing its population to travel freely as they were before, especially those from Hong Kong. They have become far, far more authoritarian even in this last year. They are going back into their shell.
Wakey, wakey everyone
Where is the discussion of the ethics of developed countries hogging the vaccine, leaving less developed countries without, or chronically under-supplied?
Being selfish and pushing vaccines in developed countries over the rest of the world is going to cost us all way more.
Welcome to the real world Andrew. People are going to care less and less about the 3rd world as they have to focus more and more on their own survival. I'm pretty sure there are those out there that think that Covid-19 is actually doing the world a favour and from a perfectly logical perspective this planet needs half the number of people on it than it currently has.
We can sort overpopulation without having to resort to this kind of thing/attitude, because unless we do actually get our heads around this, we will just get back to the business of increasing the population once the coast is pandemically cleared, as it were.
Taking your stance will just anger people even more than they are justifiably so at the unfair distribution of wealth, including that which is sourced from the countries they live in.
We can sort overpopulation without having to resort to this kind of thing/attitude, because unless we do actually get our heads around this, we will just get back to the business of increasing the population once the coast is pandemically cleared, as it were.
Taking your stance will just anger people even more than they are justifiably so at the unfair distribution of wealth, including that which is sourced from the countries they live in.
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