By Patrick Watson*
“Never tell me the odds,” said Han Solo to C-3PO as he deftly navigated through the asteroid field. They made it. But The Empire Strikes Back was a movie. SARS-CoV-2 is real.
In financial markets, “tail risk” refers to something low-probability but harmful enough that you have to plan for it.
A good analogy would be flying on an airliner (remember those?) Your plane is unlikely to lose cabin pressure. But if it does, you’ll be glad they provided oxygen masks.
A few weeks ago, we thought vaccines would bring the pandemic under control in 2021, at least in developed countries like the US. Experts still think that’s likely, but it’s not guaranteed.
There are other possibilities… and some of them are bad.
Source: Pixabay.
Pesky precautions
We all have our fantasies for post-pandemic life. Mine is to write about the economy without including an epidemiological outlook.
That day will come, but for now, the economy depends on the virus. Both have cloudy forecasts.
The best case: Vaccines, combined with previous infections, immunize enough of the population to let the previously normal economy return. We’ll travel, gather, and meet face to face without fear, and without pesky precautions like masks.
That could happen, maybe even by mid-year, if everything goes perfectly. More likely it would be late 2021 or early 2022.
Unfortunately, the vaccine campaign is not off to a good start. In the US, according to the CDC vaccine tracker, some 3.2 million people had received both their injections as of January 24. Another 18.5 million had received their first dose.
So 21.7 million Americans are now fully vaccinated, or will be soon. That’s a good start but it’s a long way from the goal.
And now we have another problem.
Enter B117
As I mentioned three weeks ago, a new and more contagious coronavirus variant is spreading. Actually several are, but for now the main concern is “B117” that first emerged in the United Kingdom.
Research is confirming that B117 does indeed spread more easily. Some data shows it may have higher fatality rates as well. That second part is still uncertain, but in either case, it’s bad news.
Labs can only distinguish B117 from the original version by fully sequencing each DNA sample. The US does this for less than 1% of cases. But Denmark sequences every case and B117 is growing exponentially there, even as overall cases decline.
If that trend continues, recent improvement may last only a few weeks before B117 hits in full force. It is already happening in Portugal. Its daily case curve was falling as of year-end, then quadrupled in less than a month. Many are linked to the B117 variant. The UK, Ireland, and Israel had similar spikes.
Source: Our World in Data.
We know B117 is spreading in the US. The question is whether vaccination progress can stop it. We’ll see.
The risk is serious. US hospital capacity is still stretched even after some recovery this month. It could be catastrophic if B117 causes the kind of spike seen elsewhere, both in lives lost and economically.
But there’s an even worse possibility… a true “tail risk.”
This idea that vaccines will save us rests on several assumptions.
- One, as noted, is that we can vaccinate people faster than the virus reaches them. That remains to be seen.
- A second assumption is that the vaccine will both protect people from COVID-19 disease and prevent them from spreading the virus.
- Another one is that the vaccines work against new variants, and will confer immunity that lasts long enough for the virus to recede. Scientists think so, but only time will tell.
- Yet another assumption is that the millions previously infected (and who may not even know it) now have some degree of long-lasting immunity. This is critical because it reduces the number of people we need to vaccinate.
On that last point, a Brazilian city’s experience should concern us.
Source: Pixabay.
No immunity
Manaus, deep in the Amazonian rainforest, has about 2.2 million people. COVID-19 hit it hard last year, overwhelming hospitals and cemeteries. Antibody studies showed, as of October 2020, about 76% of the population had been infected.
At that level, Manaus should have had herd immunity. Instead, it is now enduring an even worse outbreak. Hospitals are running out of oxygen and one healthcare worker called the situation “a complete massacre.”
How is that possible?
Well, the studies that showed so many people had been infected could have been wrong. Maybe the sample group wasn’t correctly randomized. Statistics aren’t perfect. Labs make mistakes.
But it could also mean…
- Virus patients’ immunity waned after a few months, or
- It didn’t protect them from new variants.
That’s the tail risk.
If surviving this virus doesn’t leave people with long-lasting immunity, or doesn’t protect them from new variants, we will be totally dependent on vaccines against a constantly-evolving virus. We might never reach herd immunity.
Now, that wouldn’t necessarily mean doom. We’d find ways to cope. But economically, it would mean growth won’t resume as fast as many presently think.
Giant asteroids are rare but they happen. That’s why dinosaurs disappeared.
Failure to reach herd immunity probably wouldn’t be an extinction-level event, but it would be a serious long-term global challenge. So we might want to think about it.
*Patrick Watson is senior economic analyst at Mauldin Economics. This article is from a regular Mauldin Economics series called Connecting the Dots. It first appeared here and is used by interest.co.nz with permission.
77 Comments
It's not yet clear to me that New Zealand has a sufficient quantity of fit-for-purpose vaccine on order given the more disappointing results of Johnson&Johnson 'Janssen' vaccine. Let's get to the first hurdle of aquiring a vaccine that'll work and resourcing a program to rapidly vaccinate our population before we spend too long antagonising over 'tail risks'.
Immunologists consider anything over 50% to be useful.
The flu vaccine is generally 60-70% effective in any given year.
The J&J one is fine, although not as effective as the mRNA ones.
Note that the current effectiveness rating is for a single dose regimen, testing of the effectiveness of a double dose regimen is still under way.
COVID-19 is not going to be eliminated and is going to be with us forever, the point of vaccines is to let us protect the vulnerable in the community and have enough resistance so any hotspot flare ups can be quickly combated by health authorities and extinguished. As the virologist who was interviewed by Kim Hill yesterday out it, the point of a vaccine is to make it so when the virus reaches somewhere, is like trying to light a fire using wet grass - it'll smoulder a bit and if you just left it, it might turn into a fire, but it puts out so much smoke it's easy to spot and control, and never turns into a raging fire that spreads everywhere else.
He talks about the latest vaccine situation, including the protectionism that the EU is exhibiting https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018781591/dr-…
That was my view as well but real-world experience in Israel is showing that you can have a large proportion of your population who've had the disease or been vaccine (and they are using the highly effective vaccines!) but it can still spread. These new varients are far more infectious, our assumptions about vaccinations must also be adjust to a new reality.
The very latest data is showing Israel's infection rate is dropping. Also they've mostly only administered the first dose of the vaccine and it takes about 10-14 days to start to have a therapeutic effect, let alone waiting for the 2nd dose.
In 3 months time it'll be obvious how successful they've been, it's far too soon to judge and say it's been a failure, and the scant evidence available is promising.
Not sure where you're getting your data from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/israel-covid-vaccination-…
Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total.
One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi Healthcare Services, released an encouraging smaller study on Thursday. It revealed that out of 163,000 Israelis given both shots, only 31 were infected, compared with nearly 6,500 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.
Lanthanide...I guess if you live there your judgement will depend on your ethnicity and race. The Govt there is deliberately contravening a raft of Geneva Convention regulations (regulations relating to medical care that stand whether assistance is requested or not) mainly as a political ploy to gain votes for the upcoming election. Nothing gets more votes in Israel than systematic racism and hard line policy.
NZ should be shouting from the rooftops about the current situation in Israeli controlled territories, regardless of whether Ashely Mosque and his band of fact-twisters at the Israel Institute of NZ attempt to smear us with baseless claims of anti-semitism and accusations that we do not understand the situation. Why on earth do we still have anything to do with a country that imprisons kids (for years) without trial, legislates to stop some ethnicities from holding some Govt positions and even (in some areas) has different roads for different races.
As with immigration, the fear of being branded a racist hangs heavy and paralyses most into silence and inaction; which is exactly what the villains want.
Global tracking of travellers may be needed to prevent returners misusing the quarantine process by immediately leaving their home country.
NZ Health Minister says the Govt takes a dim view of travellers abusing NZ MIQ system by bouncing onto further travel immediately.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300218120/governmen…
Can anyone competently refute the assertions made in this article? - 10 Reasons that SARS-CoV-2 Is an Imaginary and Theoretical Virus
Audaxes,
The article you link to is total nonsense. It is an example of the worst type of 'conspiracy' argument. I say again: total nonsense and a total misuse of scientific concepts. In essence it is saying that all of the infections and all of the deaths are the outcome of an information conspiracy.
KeithW
Audaxes, I am assuming you posted that link to demonstrate the seemingly logical examples of "proof" that the current pandemic is a hoax, and it's a good example. I'm certainly no virologist but even to my uneducated mind that article is pure "conspiracy theory"
The virus HAS been isolated and found to be unique, and it HAS been cultured and replicated (that's how they produce vaccines)
I respect your economic knowledge and experience but am surprised that you put KW down with his reply. The article you linked belongs on a QAnon thread.
BTW by "competent" do you expect an epidemiologist to be reading Interest.co chat threads? I'd say KW is pretty competent generally.
What?!
You mean it's all been cover; a convenient excuse, to pump tens of trillions of dollars worth of liquidity into a System that for a decade or more has refused to play ball with the guaranteed solution to what ails it of QE and 0% interest rates? An excuse to load those tens of trillions worth of debt onto the backs of the already debt soaked populations of the World, in their names, as Public Debt?
Surely not.......
According to Mr Freeman apparently so... bugger!!
Although reading his bio I'd be pretty sceptical of his motives - note the phrase "who's really running the world" below
Makia Freeman is the editor of The Freedom Articles, a long-time truth researcher and a promoter of freedom. He provides insightful, non-partisan, unique and cutting-edge analysis on who's running the world, how they're doing it and what the deeper agenda is – as well as solutions for restoring peace and freedom to the world. He writes articles exposing propaganda and the numerous aspects of the worldwide conspiracy, in addition to geopolitics, sovereignty, health and higher consciousness. His articles are regularly syndicated and featured on sites such as David Icke, Wake Up World, Activist Post, Waking Times, Global Research, The Sleuth Journal and many more.
Maybe. But 10 odd years ago, in Christchurch ,my family was struck down with H1N1 - Swine Flu.
It was horrendous. A visit to the local doctors, for a checkup, involved 'stay in your car; in the car park, and someone will come and see you there". They did. Dressed in PPE and swabbed nostrils from the safest distance possible. The virus effects were, as I say, horrendous. But we all got through it. We saw it as "just another season flu, but a bad one this time".
H1N1, I believe, is from the same family as COVID-19, as was SARS and MERS before it.
So is COVID-19 any worse? Would it have just run its course, as the previous several pandemics have? Was all this financial largess needed?
We'll never know.
But one thing certain.
Another 'seasonal flu' will hit us again at some stage (soon?) and what will we do then?
More of what we did this time; including massive financial 'assistance' or more of what 'worked' last time?
Maybe that will tell us whether what we are doing with Covid-19 is for health or desperate economic reasons.
As I said, I'm no virologist but my understanding is that H1N1, SARS, MERS whilst having a higher mortality rate had a much lower infection rate so the effects on the global population were nowhere near as bad. Was the "financial largess" required? - I believe so, although admittedly it was in response to Govt mandates (lockdowns etc)
I don't think the health response and the economic response can viewed in isolation - they are entwined
We only need to look at countries where restriction of movement hasn't been as strictly enforced to see the effects of not doing so - the US would be a prime example of trying to protect an economy with health being a secondary consideration. They are paying dearly for that decision.
Fair enough.
So tell me...." What do we do next time?" and the time after that and....
Also, ( and far higher than Covid-19 at this stage):
"Approximately 35% of reported patients with MERS-CoV infection have died"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/middle-east-respirator…-(mers-cov)
I agree.. there will be a next time and it will be an ongoing threat. The world will do what it's doing now - concerted and coordinated efforts to combat the infection.
Your link reinforces what I said - MERS was more deadly but it was also much less transmissible, it didn't infect 100+million people in 12 months. The danger now is the SA variant and the UK variant and yes there will be a new one reported soon and one after that. I've read there is a Nigerian variant and there is also a reported Brazilian variant. Will this be the global version of the Black Plague? possibly. Will the world's best medical minds be devoted to beating it? undoubtedly. Will we beat it? who knows
Are you seriously suggesting that all the medics, epidemiologists, virologists, scientists in the world etc are either collaborating in a massive hoax or are being duped by an elite cabal? How would that work? Given that most governments leak like a sieve the chance of keeping a massive lie like that quiet are practically zero, plus there would be massive incentives for people to expose it.
Occam's razor should apply here.
I don't doubt that certain entities and individuals would take advantage of a situation like this to push their ideologies/make money (a la Naomi Kleins shock doctrine), but a secretive worldwide network orchestrating it seems fanciful. James Bond type stuff. As I said, Occams razor should apply
bw, I think (perhaps naively) that to orchestrate a global economic response as we've seen is actually far beyond the ability of the multiple sovereign govts in the developed world - unless of course (as Mr Freeman seems to think) it's actually coordinated by the Illuminati (or maybe Voltemor) or the Church of Scientology.
As for it being "that time of the year" - this has been circulating for 12 months now, so no real "time of the year" effect and it's getting worse as the Northern Hemisphere starts to warm up, for the second time.
See my reply above to MERS.
Nature, incidentally, doesn't have to deal with overpopulation - each species reaches a balance over time. Humans have upended the equation and centuries ago it was sorted out via conquest or internal collapse (think the Mayan and or Egyptian, Roman Empires)
Is this the way it's supposed to be? Who knows? One thing I do know is the world just has to deal with it, there'll be winners and losers. The EU's position regarding vaccines is an interesting and potentially worrying development - will we see "vaccine wars"?
Seems there is some degree of correlation between people's ages and views when it comes to this. It appears the young are mostly happy to let the virus take its natural course and the old afraid of what that would mean.
Time will tell which approach is better... Herd immunity may work better if new strains weren't continually being introduced to said communities.
Because international travel is still continuing quite a bit (personal holiday to Europe anyone?), with such a large global population the chances of mutations continuing to develop are going to be high. The chances of spreading the mutations due to international travel are going to be high.
Dragging out approaches one way or another will allow time for more variants to develop.
What would you accept as competent evidence? The link claims "the SARS-CoV-2 virus that allegedly causes COVID has still, to this date, never been isolated", which is complete and utter bollocks. NZ sequences every new case of COVID - that's how they know who passed to whom when doing their contact tracing. That's how they figured out where the new case at the Pullman was from. I have friends of friends of people who help with this sequencing - but I suspect that is not "competent evidence" - in fact I strongly suspect that there is no evidence you would accept. You seem to think it is all some big conspiracy (no idea to what end for NZ - it is certainly not great for us economically) - it would have to involve thousands of kiwis - do you really think that is possible? Not sure why I'm replying because you have gone down a rabbit hole that probably only you can pull yourself out of.
Audaxes.. you won't find that sort of empirical evidence here. This isn't a medical chat room. The link you posted is, by any normally intelligent measure a complete crock. That you continue to attempt to defend it merely puts you in PDK's camp... entertaining but ultimately irrelevant. Freeman is a fool, who's diatribe isn't worth remotely countenancing.
Thought you had a higher IQ than what you've displayed with that thread..and the defence thereof, seems I'm wrong
I don't claim to be particularly clever - but I am versed in the ways of the financial world because of professional experience - but I note the response and outcomes in respect of Covid are more than shambolic outside a few countries, hence my compliance with those that think they know is not something I accept lightly.
But I attended Victoria University chemistry courses, which heightens one's curiosity to know, rather than believe. And having worked in the company of Oxford maths firsts I am not unaccustomed to being in the presence of those standing on the shoulders of giants.
Well I applaud your educational achievements - probably higher than most posters here. However when you post a link to an obviously "out to lunch" conspiracy theorist then the resultant comments should come as no surprise. You may be well educated but your choice of discourse in this particular argument is well off the mark. I would have expected better from an obviously well educated commentator - sadly you have been found wanting. In the old days of educational achievement measurements you would have got a " could do better" assessment - a D+
Do you really believe Keith Woodford is a DNA and RNA sequencing specialist, when he claims?: My own judgement is that only the mRNA vaccines will be sufficiently nimble (by ongoing vaccine 'tweaking' which can be quickly undertaken) to address this situation."
His opinion - but I suggest you seek qualified academic proof, just as I would. But no - you let it slide.
Audaxes,
For the record, I never claim to be an expert on anything. There is always more to learn. And people who claim to be experts have typically stopped learning. But I do have some experience working on projects that involve epidemiology, and I have also been working for a long time on projects that involve antibodies, and in more recent times PCR testing, and even genomic sequencing. My role is not to do the lab work, but does at times include the scientific interpretations thereof. When I offer an opinion, be that related to science or economics, I am using my experiences in those disciplines to underpin that position. But as said at the outset, there is always more to learn, and so opinions and judgements can change. However, in the case of the Freeman article, it was easy to see that the man had no understanding of the science, that he was using terms he did not understand, and that he was what many of us would consider a 'nutter'.
KeithW
One doesn't need "evidence" to refute that link, just simple logic is all that is required.
The article asserts that in order for something to not be a "theoretical virus" it must pass those two postulates. Firstly the Koch Postulates are a red herring in this case, because it's a virus, not a "micro-organism" such as bacteria which is what the Koch Postulate is talking about.
Secondly, things don't have to pass the River postulates in order to be a virus. The thing that article keeps rabbiting on about is that no one has "isolated the virus" as required by the River postulates, whatever that actually means, and then goes on to say that no-one has isolated the virus therefore it claims the virus is theoretical.
Actually the only thing that can logically be claimed is that the virus hasn't been isolated (if that is actually true) and therefore doesn't pass the River postulates. That's it. That's all.
If someone is foolishly using the River postulates as their single definition of what constitutes a virus or not, and if something fails the River postulates it definitely ISN'T a virus, then that person is stupid.
The River postulates are simply one set of criteria for the definition of a disease causing virus. It's not the gold-standard or single objective measure that people use. It's quite possible for something to fail the River postulates and still be a virus that causes disease.
Honestly Audaxes, you are digging further and further into a one way rabbit hole (no offence to the rabbits). Freeman is another tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, espousing his "facts" (selective as they are) to those who would believe them. As I said earlier - his opinions belong on a QAnon site - certainly not here
No, the onus is on you to show that the person you are quoting is qualified to make the claims that they are. It is not on us to show rebuttals to specious or nonsense arguments. Extraordinary theories require extraordinary proof. That is the way the world works, people must prove their theories, not create their own logic loops or invent arguments and then (obviously) win them. As Lanthanide says above "If someone is foolishly using the River postulates as their single definition of what constitutes a virus or not, and if something fails the River postulates it definitely ISN'T a virus, then that person is stupid." The authors first argument is akin to this sort of logic: "A car must have 4 wheels and have an internal combustion engine. Teslas have 4 wheels, but have an electric engine, therefore they aren't cars." - clearly a fallacious argument.
Nope. But in reading the piece and following this link, it suggests that one of the general characteristics of viruses is that;
They are unaffected by Antibiotics but affected by Interferon.
Here's wiki on Interferon;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferon
And a Google of 'Interferon Covid-19' brings up a string of articles and studies.
So much emphasis/coverage on COVID-19 has been on the development of vaccines, but we've heard little about treatments (aside from oxygen administration). Anyone know whether treatments include any of the interferon products?
In terms of risk, the focus in the Patrick Watson (Mauldin) article on the B117 ('UK') variant has already been superseded by new evidence. The key issues now are the emerging evidence that the original variants offer only short and limited immunity to the newer Brazilian and South African variants. Similarly, the latest evidence is that the protection offered by vaccines developed to protect against the original variants work well against the UK variant but significantly less in relation to other newer variants (e.g. South African). My own judgement is that only the mRNA vaccines will be sufficiently nimble (by ongoing vaccine 'tweaking' which can be quickly undertaken) to address this situation. The 'big picture' is now looking different to just two weeks ago.
KeithW
Yes, work is already going into a second generation of vaccines. For New Zealand that likely means purchasing/administering vaccines that are very highly effective this year as well as signing contracts for the next generation of vaccines for next year.
I do worry that efforts by the EU procurement program have been so lacklustre that they might actually get another wave this year. Either way I don't believe that any country will take the immense risk of letting the EU manage procurement any further: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/faced-with-a-vaccine…
And isn't that the implication of the original article here? His 'tail risk' scenarios are all pretty spot on to my mind.
One 'tail risk' I see relates to int'l travel. Does anyone else think it inevitable that commercial airlines go down like dominos within the next 2-3 months? In the blink of an eye, airfares will rise beyond what none of us are likely to contemplate/comprehend. Only the 1% will be travelling international long-haul in future.
Thanks Donny,
Yes, the coronavirues are RNA and hence they will always mutate rapidly. However, the mRNA vaccines can be tweaked very rapidly. Almost certainly both BioNtech and Moderna already have those vaccines - it only takes a day or so in the lab. With these mRNA technologies the development phase is very short It is the testing process that takes so long. However, the testing process for 'tweaked' mRNA vaccines will almost certainly be greatly sped up compared to the initial mRNA vaccines. To the best of my knowledge BioNTech (now linked to Pfizer) and Moderna are the only two groups who have the mRNA technology. They have been developing the technology for ten or so years and other companies will take years to develop the expertise.
KeithW
The Wealth Effect is a fraud.
If one $5 stock (GameStop) can be pushed up to $400 in a week, why not push every $5 stock to $400? This is the essence of the wealth effect: all capital is phantom capital, a fraud balloon awaiting a pin.
The wealth effect failed, the Fed failed, regulations failed, politics failed. But thanks to the Fed and the self-serving political class, the entire U.S. economy is now utterly dependent on this completely corrupt and destabilizing fraud - the stock market. If the stock market stumbles and collapses, the economy, now totally dependent on phantom capital, also stumbles and collapses.It didn't have to be this way, but this is the reality we must now face: truth is fatal to fraud, and our entire financial-political system is a fraud.
(CH Smith)
bw, the stock market isn't a fraud by any stretch. It IS a place where the poorly informed get farmed but that doesn't make it a fraud. The "phantom capital" you speak of isn't phantom when you cash up - it is actual capital, which can be converted to actual goods and services. Your comment smacks of the fox in the vineyard scenario - sour grapes
So you'll just shrug your shoulders when your parents succumb and say "Oh well.. they were both ungrateful SoBs anyway.. good riddance". Nice attitude
BTW.. it's the age group between 20 and 40 that are the biggest spreaders - with their overdeveloped sense of entitlement
Interestingly that's another tail event no one is considering. What happens when the poor, unemployed and disenfranchised under 50s who have 0 chance of dying from COVID decide they'll spread the virus on purpose? We have to make sure the middle class are ok economically if we want to see this damn thing off successfully. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimatum_game
All those "over-entitled" 20 to 40 year olds that locked themselves down with huge repercussions to their livelihoods, finances, education, social lives and travel plans for something that poses almost no threat to them. You don't get your youth back.
What do they get in return? Further skyrocketing housing costs plus a government debt mountain to repay while the people whose lives they saved with their sacrifice continue to strip their wealth and pour scorn and condescension on them for their so-called "entitlement".
It's very clear it wasn't appreciated.
I think it depends on the character of the individual older person as to how ungrateful they are. Likewise individuals in your own cohort will be selfish and greedy or generous and steadfast depending on the individual.
When I hear someone saying I'm going to spend it all on myself before I go and leave nothing behind I don't hear the sound of a morally attractive person. I don't understand their attitude or their lack of a sense of family. My father and mother helped me out as best they could and I help out my family members as best I can.
I think this govt has done a good job with the pandemic and a middling to average job with the economy. We in NZ have preserved the health of our population and 9/10ths of the resources of our economy. Each wave of the pandemic that a nation can avoid leaves that nation in a better position to come back. Each wave of the pandemic that a nation has to endure leaves it sicker and economically less resilient.
People have to give up the neo-liberal idea of creative destruction when it comes to pandemics. There's nothing creative about a plague for the people that have to endure it. The Black Death did allow higher wages for the survivors but only after wiping out villages, family support networks and savings.
The other point is that Bolsonaro did let Covid sweep through and it impacted the hardest on the indigenous people of the Amazon. That is why we are hearing about Manaus and not Rio, because it is all the people with majority indigenous blood who are dying, and of those most age groups.
Good luck to Biden, I think he is a lot smarter than he is given credit for.
Key words in media matter.
At present they keeping (without proper definition) "work" and "efficacy" with respect to vaccines.
BUT as above article points out, we do not know yet if 'Work" means stops you getting it, or , also, whether it means stops you being infectious, also, whether it means you have immunity next time a wave of CV19 coms along.Not much of a prospectus for our "salvation" is it? This is not what they were having us believe 6 months ago. The Chief Medical Officer of UK admitted 2-3 weeks ago that in fact the vaccine only guarantees you won't die, ie it reduces odds of it when you have the virus. That is a very different thing than all the panacea type stuff the MSM and scientists were spitting out 6 months ago.
Ehem, FTA being upgraded with the Asian's master, but NZ still chasing the vaccines from the 'preferred race vaccine makers', not once any of NZ/OZ authorities mentioned to get it from China - Don't worry about the efficacy report, the preferential options clearly showing how selective they're - Almost as long as the NZ nationhood itself, the history of squeezing Asians and treated them as a different species can be seen everywhere to date. Asians or Pasifika wards anyone?.. for the regional councils naah,... eventually the 30millions, will have to deal with >3billions
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