Joe Biden has survived a grueling election campaign and a cliff-hanger election. Next, he must fend off legal challenges from US President Donald Trump’s campaign. While he will most likely enter the White House on January 20, 2021, he will wonder when he gets there whether the prize he sought for so long is a poisoned chalice.
A President Biden will enter office confronting widespread economic distress, the seasonal escalation of a deadly pandemic, and a brutal international environment. These challenges would test even the most skilled leader. But Biden will be further hampered by a divided government, a hostile judiciary, a weakened federal bureaucracy, and lingering Trumpian populism among the public.
In the past, a newly elected president could expect some cooperation from the opposing party in passing legislation. Biden should expect nothing of the kind. Republican members of Congress largely beat expectations in the election and will see no reason for compromise. If Republicans retain their majority in the Senate, they can and will try to undermine the Biden administration, to create the conditions for an anti-Democratic backlash in the 2022 midterm elections. Progressive bills will be dead on arrival, and sorely needed constitutional reforms of the Electoral College, voting laws, and the presidency will not occur. More likely, Americans will have to endure sporadic government shutdowns amid a cold civil war that maintains a status quo of paralysis – at best.
Many of Biden’s nominations will also face hostility in a Republican-controlled Senate. Republicans probably will not deny him a secretary of state or an attorney general, but they will ensure that the executive branch is understaffed. Having incurred no electoral punishment for their hardball tactics over judicial nominations, they will block and delay all confirmations of federal judges.
Even if Democrats win a majority in the Senate, Biden will face formidable obstacles. With the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett a week before the election, Republicans will enjoy a 6-3 majority on a Supreme Court that was already leaning more rightward than any court since the 1930s. Today’s Court will continue chipping away at the legal foundations of US regulatory agencies and advancing socially conservative values, as it has for the last two decades. Even if Biden can push progressive legislation through a divided Congress, he will still face the prospect of the Court striking it down. Indeed, the Court might finally deal a deathblow to the Affordable Care Act, the signature achievement of Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama.
With a likely understaffed executive branch and a hostile judiciary, Biden will have trouble exercising executive power. Federal agencies have suffered a loss of morale – and qualified staff – during the Trump era, and will most likely take quite a while to regroup. Efforts to undo the damage that Trump did to environmental, health, and safety regulation will come slowly from the depleted agencies, and all changes will be met with judicial skepticism from Republican-appointed – and especially Trump-appointed – federal judges.
Similarly, ambitious uses of regulatory and executive power to reform immigration or address climate change (on the model pioneered by Obama) will receive a frigid reception at the Court. Biden will inherit substantial legal authority to take measures to contain the pandemic; but Trump-appointed judges will push back when that authority conflicts with religious liberty and property rights, as they have already done when governors issued similar orders.
Finally, there is the elusive issue of public opinion. Though Biden won the popular vote, the American electorate remains deeply divided. Trump’s lawsuits claiming electoral fraud are unlikely to succeed, but his attempts to persuade Republican voters that Democrats stole the election will likely have a lasting effect. If Trump succeeds in delegitimizing the outcome in the eyes of enough voters, Biden will have even more trouble securing support for his policies from alienated Republicans and their elected representatives. Moreover, Biden also will be contending with a fractious Democratic coalition that could explode at any moment into a battle among leftists, moderates, and anti-Trump independents.
For all of these reasons, Biden will not benefit from the traditional honeymoon period that other newly elected presidents have enjoyed. He ran as a unifier, but, like Obama before him, he will quickly learn that you cannot win over those who despise you.
That said, Trump’s defeat is a triumph for American democracy. Trump has been the most divisive and destructive president of modern times. His failure to win a second term, despite the numerous advantages of incumbency, will send a signal to ambitious politicians that populism and demagoguery are not the keys to victory. The moment should be savored for that reason – if for nothing else.
Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago, is the author, most recently, of The Demagogue’s Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump (All Points Books, 2020). This content is © Project Syndicate, 2020, and is here with permission.
141 Comments
Oh his tax returns? They said it on CNN must be true. #Stop the steal# is just the anti woke movement.
Its a good result with an old man with Dementia being elected that will have no real power despite his speeches to bring in policies like the green new deal and increased taxes and estate duty and US carbon zero by 2050. A divided Government is great for the status auo until the Trump 2024 campaign starts up in 2.5 years.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1324910348365860865
A good summary of the fraud
Oh like you've seen his tax returns that he's so desperate to hide, where he lied that they were audited, then rolled in his legal team to stop anyone from seeing them. Americans paid for Trump’s $73m tax refund! But that still won't dig him out of his debt hole! Trump is in very deep do, do!
Guardian article: Trump’s tax avoidance is a national disgrace. Don't let him blame 'the system'. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/28/trump-tax-avoidan…
Forbes: Billion In Debt, More Than Twice The Amount He Suggested. https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-a…
From your article that is the proof: It is important to note, as Trump did Thursday night, that he also has significant assets. Forbes values them at $3.66 billion, enough to make his net worth an estimated $2.5 billion. He is not broke, despite what many critics claim.
All these articles mean nothing. Go to Fox News for the one true news source!
Sincere question: do you mean to imply that the Guardian is lying about what fox news is saying? Why would they do that? It would be so easy to disprove. Also from their perspective wouldn't something like 'Fox news still refuses to accept Biden won't be a more interesting story?
ETA: they even include the clip on their website. Do you think they faked it? Why would they do that?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/nov/07/fox-news-projects…
Every fake news article on all sides is an opinion of the writer.No different to a facebook post just dresssed as news.
Facebook is now trying to decide what opinions can and cant be expressed based on its view of the world.
Previously they were happy to be used as a medium for change in the arab spring regime overthrows but now they are trying to act a moderator of peoples thoughts when they believe they are dangerous.
But we are not talking about Facebook. The Guardian says Fox news has said that Biden has won the election. They have posted a clip of Fox News doing just that. There is no good reason for them to lie, or fake a clip. Given that, why should we not accept that the Guardian has accurately reported facts about what has been said on Fox news? On what grounds should we think that the Guardian reporting in this particular instance is fake in some way?
even his sister is fake i suppose.,
Maryanne Trump Barry, President Trump’s older sister and a former federal judge, described him as a liar who has “no principles”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/politics/maryanne-trump-donald.ht…
Have you forgotten how Trump used his cronies to inflate his asset values (And decrease for tax evasion). Anyway it will be all out in the open soon, and once all the court case are over the world will finally be able to see just how corrupt and in debt Trump really is.
maybe you need to check fox
headline joe biden elected president
https://www.foxnews.com/
I'm recalling the method of funding the foundation as far back as last century, when I was a financial operator working for a US bank in London between 1982 and 1998.
Bill Gates’s Charity Paradox
And apart from a four year stint as a stockbroker in Wellington, I have never worked a day longer in my 68 years. The bank and I ripped off less consummate traders than ourselves.
O C,
have a look at this FT article- https://www.ft.com/content/081e6d25-8d67-4caa-918a-2765a66f0052
Trump has failed on a key 2016 election promise. he has failed to regenerate the US steel and coal industries as he promised to do. He has tried hard to gut the EPA. Don't you ever wonder why he hasn't released his tax returns? I know that his operations in Scotland run at a substantial loss every year. A little strange don't you think?
You wouldn't believe it if you listen to some of the comments on here but Biden is a moderate who knows how to compromise and build bridges with the Republicans. There are decades of proof on this. He already has a good working relationship with Mitch McConnell (senior Republican Senate House).
Biden will focus on the pandemic and associated economic aftermath rather than more hyper-partisanship and division. American has been in stale mate for 4 years because of trump's extremism, need for attention and ego inflation. Biden isn't some major progressive, he isn't going to try and bring in huge left wing changes. He's more of a consensus politician.
Let's hope America can finally start moving forward again as one nation.
Remember early in the pandemic when there was discussion of "died of Covid" versus "died with Covid"? The US very early on decided to classify anyone with Covid at time of death as "died of Covid". This gives a misleading picture I think of the deaths attributed to the US's appalling handling of the pandemic, but I haven't seen any serious discussion of this nuance for a long time. The number of cases shows how bad the US management has been, but sheeting home a quarter of a million deaths might not be fair. NZ has always followed the "died with Covid" distinction, but we've had so few deaths it's hard to say what the real effect on numbers has been.
Trump was never likely to be the full answer to American, and the wider World's, problems. His election was a desperate acknowledgment of those problems, very few of which have been solved. But many are now out in the open, and where we go from here ( in the face of the above article) will be interesting to watch.
Someone noted over the weekend "What we need is Trumpism, without Trump" and in Biden, that may very well turn out to be what we get.
Biden is a politician, in the truest, deepest sense of the term.....His politics isn’t about what he believes, but about finding the intersection of what he believes, what he believes the country believes, and what the people he needs to win over believe..... And it speaks to the kind of presidency he’s likely to have.
"PS: I see you've changed the 's' to a capital "S" after I replied - and 'most likely' is my answer."
You mean you 'most likely' know them well? As for changing to upper and lower thats a rather introspective and nitpicking comment. Btw there is a late night talkback caller named Bruce who I think would almost certainly be you bw, am I right? Enjoy your day.
No not much will get done when a President is under siege and preoccupied with defending himself. A great amount of political experience for sure but just how strong physically and mentally is he. Having to think about that question is a concern in itself. He looks a bit like Jimmy Carter looked, but at the end of four years.
Well Done Biden!!! 279 to Trumps 214. Also Harris is the first woman elected Vice President! Of course it's highly unlikely that Trump will concede gracefully but it's going to be so entertaining to watch him be evicted from the White House. He must be terrified right now with having to face all those criminal lawsuits against him.
but did the democrats cheat? Looks to me like they did, which is a tragedy for democracy and the world, are we controlled by a corrupted media.
I am not saying they definitely did but even a hint can cause a lot of problems
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/30-states-computer-system-known-be-…
Too late after the election IMO. They need to make sure the election and voting system is fair beforehand. The republicans should have been in a good position to do so.
the US are such a bunch of kids that they may need to outsource their election system to another country. China perhaps?
True but I’m sure the republicans could have put pressure on before the election. If they thought the voting machine company was Democrat leaning why wait to point that out after? And what’s in it for that company to cheat? Would be sure to end the company. Seems like a load of crap to me.
Don't forget that the USA version of democracy is not as fool-proof as ours. In the USA you only have to show your driver's licence or similar and they compare the signature on that to a document you sign at the polling-both......there is no checking the voter against his address and ruling a line through it. It is a very primitive system which could be subject to fraud.
Michael Flynn “What I think we have is an unraveling, and my belief is, the technical side of this election, the electronic voting, there's probably some problems there, and they're going to have to find those out. Michigan is one of those examples.
"When the votes didn't get to what they needed, no we come in with the mail-in ballots. I strongly believe, they're going to find mail-in ballot problems, like we already have seen that were after the fact to get to the numbers to achieve a victory.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/fraud-michigan-national-security-pre…
That's a bit hypocritical coming from a supporter of the most corrupt president in the US political history, which is what Trump will be remembered for. What is astounding is how these Trump supporter Muppets they can't even understand how postal votes work! What numpties, anyway most of them will die off soon after attending all those Trump rallies.
It was Republican legislatures that prevented improvements to voting procedures (as in the ludicrous Pennsylvania situation). Ask yourself why that might be? I can’t think of any reason except for what we’re seeing, which is the opportunity to de-legitimise an election if you don’t like the outcome.
I think the measure of any democracy is how easy it is to vote. All parties should support anything that increases voter turnout as that is what democracy is all about. Yet most countries esp US have at least one party that benefits from low turnout.
Internet voting has to happen soon. Lining up for 4 hours at a polling booth seems like the opposite of democracy to me.
People voted by post, because there is a pandemic and the need to get around the constant voter suppression that occurs in the USA, look at some of those polling booths, people lining up for hours and hours, it should never be like this, but it has long been like this. Have you moaned in the past about voter suppression?
Perhaps next time the USA could look at what we did, polling booths galore, encouraging people to vote, as you should do in a democracy. That perhaps could negate the need for much in the way of postal voting.
you don't need proof just reasonable doubt
https://therealslog.com/2020/11/07/electoral-fraud-does-ohio-hold-the-k…
AndrewJ
Your love affair with Zerohedge is blinding you
Re-read the first 2 short sentences of that link you linked to
Then pick them apart
First there are voting machines
Then there are counting machines
Which of the machines was the software uploaded to
Was there an upload. If correct, it was done before polls closed
How many states
Mail-in votes are verified and counted manually are they not?
Hilarious to watch, so much glee at the most narrowly contested of results teetering on the edge, almost as if they did not recognize that not everyone shared their opinion and are sobered by that. Also, those who would cry disrespect for democratic process would have selective memories, preferring to block out those of protest and banners reading "not my president" that have gone before. My view is that this is a result borne of hate for one party rather than support for the other and as such it shows up democracy for what it has become, mob rule.
I don't view either of the offered candidates as competent for the position but wouldn't call them names. As for the power of the position it clearly has its limits otherwise the democratic faithful would not be wringing their hands at what they may not be able to see come to pass.
I agree, though it’s hard not to get caught up in it, and of course it does affect us somewhat.
What really irks me is when people insist on using American frames of reference to argue about local politics, when there are so many differences between our countries.
I read that yesterday the odds of a Trump 'win' were still 25/1 and some confident punter plonked $60k down in the expectation of a $1,500,000 return.
That's either supreme confidence; what interest rates at 0% does or what 1/100th of this years bonus from trading in a similar fashion has produced!
(NB: Some employers strike annual bonus' as at 31/10 to avoid or take advantage of the Christmas uncertainties)
USA is supposed to be the country that stands for the pillar of democracy around the world and what other countries should aspire to, but to those of outside my gosh the people there did not have much of a choice for leader did they no matter which side they vote for
No kidding - they desperately need a viable third (at least) political party/movement. That was what Trump was to many of his followers - neither red nor blue. But such political diversity comes down to the monied and that wouldn't suit, hence unlikely to happen in my lifetime anyway.
Seems from afar, that if the election was stolen, it was stolen by a killer cop in Minnesota and a killer bat in China, both reflecting the most inhumane aspects of human nature and culture.
Trump rhetoric destroys his followers ability to trust anything but him. Even though he was a buddy of Epstein and Bill Clinton they swallow his lies because he does a great job in telling them what they want to hear and they so desperately want to hear it, that they lose all discernment. Trump isn't their guy but credit where credit is due, he does an amazing job of projecting the image that he is.
Welcome back America! We missed you! Now please show the world how to get a pandemic under control, how to behave like a responsible, sane leader on the world stage.
You still need to drain the swamp. Biden probably isn't the guy to do that and obviously Trump just added to the corruption, nepotism and power of corporate lobbyists. Time will tell on who can do that job. But after 4 years of chaos, fantasy, lies, delusion and disintegration, they need some calm.
Big time. Trump has constantly undermined the prestige of democracy, playing right into Xi and Putin's hands.
He's doing it again right now, although, clearly without any evidence whatsoever for widespread fraud. And frankly widespread fraud is simply impossible in the American electoral system, and eventually, that will be proven. Indeed, it needs to be proven, in order to restore American's faith in their democracy and undo some of the damage Trump has done. Trump has sold his story well, as all celebrities do but unfortunately.
Love the use of weasel word "widespread". Even red radio is using it like it is some sort of absolution.
That time there was fraud and the election was re-run. "North Carolina Had No Choice
A House election tainted by fraud gets its inevitable do-over."
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/north-carolina-9th…
Had they had a clear majority in the Senate, they'd have dropped the lawsuits like a lead balloon. That's now tricky for them.
US election: Trump emails Americans demanding money to defend election - half goes to paying off his debt
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-trump-emails-americans-dem…
I used to read your comments and think you were a sensible Kiwi bloke with his head screwed on. Then you clearly started sipping on the alt-right/ conspiracy theory Kool-aid. Then every other post was zerohedge.
You actually became the white boomer stereotype of naïve misinformation hyperbole...much to my despair because you used to be a respectable opinion. Made me sad.
No, i'm slightly playing devil's advocate. Even in the worse case scenario Trump got a hell of a lot of votes perhaps well over %45. If there is any doubt in those voters minds that this was not a fair and honest election what happens next?
Much better to let investigators go through in minute detail and say they found nothing. Far too many irregularities for me, just things that don't stack up, like why Harris? she got no votes in the primaries. Having the press all on Bidens side is not helping, this could end in a very ugly place as the people who voted for Trump start looking for a replacement, believing their democracy has been corrupted.
The anti Trump brigade have used very emotive arguments, I like it more if we keep the emotion out of things, it's how we make really bad decisions as individuals and groups.
"Having the press all on Bidens side is not helping"
More devil's advocacy?. Doesn't read like it
Remember this - right from the get-go, the minute he got out of the starting blocks, Trump ridiculed the media, constantly flinging "fake news" at them. The media then turned to fact-checking and reporting the results. How was that on Biden's side. Remember you were so quick off the mark about Bobulenski who blew himself up. The media remained neutral on that one
.
For major reform, they need to listen and trust each other. There needs to be due process and honesty. During a global pandemic and the biggest economic downturn in over a century, isn't the time for that kind of reform. The dissatisfaction that Trump harnessed is still there and i doubt it will go away without reform. But let the Americans get in better shape first. I mean who knows, maybe Trump will learn some lessons and come back a sane, mature more seasoned politician and help bring in reform? I doubt it. But maybe?
But.....
"As of July 2020, 26 states allow specified agents to collect and submit ballots for another voter.....Ballot collecting is the gathering and submitting of completed absentee or mail-in voter ballots by third-party individuals, volunteers or workers, rather than submission by the voters themselves directly to ballot collection sites....Critics of ballot collection highlight the possibility of increasing the potential for vote misappropriation or fraud. These critics sometimes use the term ballot harvesting to refer to the practice"
Trump is done but a new non establishment candidate will emerge. The people will not stand for an establishment hack like a mitt romney or Paul Ryan. Devin Nunes possibly for 2024. All I'm after is a leader who rejects wars and regime change and the feds behavior.
There are better options
There are no better options - those wishing to be responsible for engineering the dissolution of a super power no longer capable of executing that function are few and generally unwilling.
Trump has not been repudiated – a Biden presidency would face obstruction at every level
"There is no good ending to this story."
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91697/rather-drain-swamp-donald-trump-h…
Pure vacuous speculation - what evidence do you have that there would be riots by Dem supporters if Trump won.
Most of the speculation I have read comes from the rabid right in an attempt to demonize the left . It makes me wonder what planet am I on. I understand that world is driven more by emotion than logic / reason - but the rabid right take it to a whole new level of crazy.
The planet where BLM marxists and Antifa don't exist?
Dem supporters have form:
Anti-Trump protests, some violent, erupt for 3rd night nationwide
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/11/11/anti-trump-protes…
Trump presidency: Protests turn violent in Portland, Oregon
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37946231
But those protests were in 2016. This is 2020. It appears to be a rabid right wet dream. What we have had is two instances of people taking actions which could be strongly construed as the right reacting.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-bomb-threat-fashion-district…
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/police-men-guns-arrested-vote…
Ironic that what is predicted to happen to Biden is exactly what happened to Trump, from the day he was elected, all hands were turned against him. Forget about a honeymoon period, there was the immediate accusations of Russian collusion, multiple continuous calls for impeachment, 'not my president', 'the resistance'. It's a miracle he got anything done at all. I have never seen a media more hostile to a US President than what I have witnessed these past four years. If he could have had media support or at least neutrality, he could have been a hugely popular President.
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