This week's Top 5 comes from Greg Ninness, the property editor at interest.co.nz..
As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to david.chaston@interest.co.nz.
And if you're interested in contributing the occasional Top 5 yourself, contact gareth.vaughan@interest.co.nz.
We are living through what is undoubtedly the greatest period of social and economic disruption in this country since the Second World War.
For most of us the lockdown will, at the least, bring inconvenience and frustration to our daily lives. For some it will bring hardship and heartbreak.
But among the gloom are small bright spots to help lighten our days.
Although they may be small consolations, they are precious and we should hold them dear. They will help us through these difficult times.
Here are my Top 5 bright spots during the lockdown:
1) The weather has been on our side.
I've long regarded autumn as the nicest time of the year. It has mostly settled weather with sunny days that aren't too hot. Perfect for encouraging kids to play outside, attending to outdoor chores, going for walks or just sitting in the sun and reading a book. The good weather has also made queueing more sufferable and thank goodness all of this occurred before the normal winter cold and flu season kicked in.
Imagine what the lockdown would have been like if the weather had been wet and miserable and we were cooped up inside with colds and chills. It doesn't bear thinking about.
2) Shopping for essentials has not been as bad as I thought it would be.
Sure, there were the crazies who stockpiled mountains of toilet paper and bread, denuding the shelves for the rest of us, but that was brought under control reasonably quickly.
For the most part I have been able to get what I needed, although I may have had to settle for alternatives to some of my usual products.
And queueing hasn't been as horrific as I'd feared.
I've shopped at both my local Pak'N Save and Countdown supermarkets and the wait times have varied between zero (no queue) and 30 minutes.
The queues look worse then they are because people are observing the two metre distance rule.
I've seen the TV news reports of a few people losing the plot and abusing supermarket staff or going off the rails, but my experience has been that people have remained calm and orderly.
And once you get into the supermarket the aisles are less crowded than normal, which is nice.
Mostly we seem to be a patient and practical lot in the face of adversity and I find that reassuring.
3) Community spirit had been bolstered.
It's ironic that measures intended to enforce social isolation may bring us closer together.
Normally when I spot my neighbours at the letterbox or over the fence as we go about our busy lives we might acknowledge each other with a nod or or a wave but now we are stopping to chat, albeit from a safe distance.
The other day when I went for a walk a complete stranger who was sitting on his verandah smiled and waved at me as I walked past and fellow walkers out for their constitutionals are also more likely to smile and say hi.
They may only be social pleasantries but I take comfort from them because they make me feel less isolated.
4) I have not turned to drink.
When I heard that liquor stores would be forced to close during the lockdown I made sure I stocked up on whisky and gin, the two staples of a good liquor cabinet.
I've used the lockdown as an opportunity to put a dent in a small mountain of accumulated annual leave and it could have been tempting to settle into a routine of having an afternoon tipple and for that to develop into a pattern of over-indulgence.
But without the close social interaction that usually accompanies drinking I haven't felt the need for it and my consumption has remained modest.
My liver is grateful.
5) Not all the economic news is bad.
One of the best pieces of news on the economic front is that the Government intends to boost infrastructure spending and bring forward the timetable for many planned infrastructure projects.
The benefits of this will go well beyond just providing wages and revenue for the workers and companies involved in these projects. It should start to relieve the pressures that have built up over many years in areas such as housing and transport that have weighed heavily on our daily lives.
Although the benefits of these projects may take several years to become apparent, the fact they are being addressed provides hope that no matter how hard the difficulties we currently face are, life can get better.
Our situation is not hopeless.
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52 Comments
Hi Greg, You forgot No 6 : Opportunity to many (if jobs and businesses are intact) to buy as House price falls.
Don't think so. If jobs and businesses are going to remain intact, as you say, house prices will remain where they are. The assumption you make about houses prices dropping, is precisely made on the premise that jobs and businesses will be lost.
Jobs and business will be affected - no two doubts about it and will be affected very badly (Could be to an extend that no one has even thought about it as of today) but still their will always be a certain percentage who will have their jobs intact or not as badly affected, so good for them and also those who have decent deposit and can manage.
I agree that we are in unchartered territiry so the damage will also be something to watch out for and will only know the carnage caused by Virus after it has passed - by pass also I mean when is under control/ have medecine or vaccine.
Corona Virus has press Resert Button.... So watch out for it.
Anyone who feels that jobs and business will not suffer is either ignorant or stupid and the same applies to house price.
Agree, no one can fathom the damage that this Corona Virus has caused and will only know, once it has passed or have some sort of normalcy in the world.
So we can say that this is the begining of the end as far as economy is concerned and each one should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Definitely people who are still on cash may get some opportunity of a lifetime in future - Not Now - Again that will depend on how long the current situation continues.
Reset it will be not only of economy but also socially and will see new world equation/ relation in future.
Ok, you're the one saying
"Anyone who feels that jobs and business will not suffer is either ignorant or stupid "
and you also said:
"Opportunity to many (if jobs and businesses are intact"
Yeah both are correct.
Jobs and business taking a hit is inevitable and anyone who feels otherwise in this scenario is either ignorant or stupid.
Also who have cash (Cash is King and are not losing their jobs or business) will get an opportunity to invest and make fortune depending how the virus plays out - how long it takes to get it under control.
Example : My friend who is a nurse and her husband who is a professor in university and were sitting on a decent deposit (Cash) to buy a house and were still struggling will now get a chance to buy their dream home - hopefully.
More may be in a situation to make good use of their cash by investing in house or stock for long term and many will be who will be adversly affected by corona virus.
Also feel that stock market will give better return than housing and also have the advantage of investing in denomination that suits one budget and also is highly liquid unlike housing market.
Easy credit, even when OCR venturing to negative - This revolving/shuffling door of debts between countries. 'House prices will remain..' despite all these job lost announcement on both OZ/NZ - you could be right though, as Ashley Church indicated on TV interview.. 12 months disruption.
The GFC was an absolute boon to those with mortgages that kept their jobs as interest rates dropped markedly. I bought a house in March 2009 and while I can’t recall any difficulty getting a mortgage with a low LVR I do remember a sickening feeling signing up for the debt. It helped that I was an expat raking in the dosh. The debt is long since repaid.
I think this Covid-19 market will be different. Jobs will not be certain. With up to 500,000 people unemployed, pay rates and job security will be low. Deposits are impacted and banks will not be in the mood to push the LVR envelope. I expect little if any LVR > 80% lending. The LVR will be based on valuations that will likely be conservative. The servicing assessments may put less store in double incomes and the amortisation may be more aggressive to de-risk the loan. The banks may look at proven deposits in accounts with them. No playing one off against another. You may have to beg. Then there is the type of property coming on the market. In downturns it’s normally the lesser properties.
All in all, if you are licking your chops in anticipation of buying a pearler of a property for not much money then you are dreaming. This is not the reset that will take many from renter to owner.
Dont expect the prices of used house prices to fall much below the cost of building a house .
The ridiculous increasing costs of building new houses has helped push up prices of all housing
The price falls will arise from desperate sellers who have lost income, and over-geared investors , but there will be a clearing price for the overhang of stock and with 2 years it will be over much like the post GFC when by 2010 the market was flying .
So unless you have the 20% deposit in cash and a pre-approved mortgage , nothing will change
"4) I have not turned to drink."
Gave me a good laugh. Objective, achieved!
My drinking has probably increased 25-30%.
And my weight about 5%...
Home brewing again. Outcome(s) unpredictable. But helps spin the day fluffing around with it all.
Is people's, media's and government's reaction to CV, the biggest over-reaction in human history and the largest self-inflicted hardship of all time?
Do people realise that worldwide, less people have died in March 2020 than in any March of the preceding 3 years?
The reaction to CV? Yes agree I for one am ready to accept the governments actions but admit I still do not know exactly why they are in place. That is because in 2009 with the swine flu NZ had over 3000 cases and 19 deaths without the drastic close down measures of today and the general fear. So what exactly is the difference with this one?
I think the main difference is media hype and people's over-consumption of sensationalistic news
I very much agree, but based on the complete lack of discussion of alternative strategies in the NZ media, either we are in a very small minority or there is some deliberate control of the narrative. I suspect the latter.
you have a great name.
I don't think there is deliberate control of the narrative - at least in NZ.
I just think we've got a god awful, lazy and lame media. True journalism that digs and questions is pretty much dead and buried here.
For all that Hosking is criticised, and often rightly so, at least he asks some hard questions.
J'aime bien ton nom, es-tu francophone?
The alternative strategy some countries have chosen is to let the virus spread in a 'controlled' manner for building up herd immunity. Trouble being that the virus type is same as common cold, which you don't build up long-term immunity to, so the jury is out on whether their strategy is even legitimate.
It's an over reaction for anyone that thinks what happened in Italy and Spain is acceptable. It's not only about the quantity of deaths, it's the timeframe. No country can afford to have the health system and undertakers completely overwhelmed like happened in those countries that were slow to adopt a complete lockdown.
Indeed.
Folk who will rant against the lock down if New Zealand only sees a low number of deaths from Covid-19 are the same folk who would rant against the unnecessary expense of an umbrella after staying dry in the rain.
And it must be pointed out, that the deaths in Italy and Spain are now levelling off, thanks to their lockdown.
If they hadn't locked down, they'd still be increasing, and likely at a faster rate than they had been.
Yvil doesn't seem to have any imagination for what the situation would have been like without a lockdown.
Good news, Orr sees our banks as ok.
Orr said in last weekend's paper, "People just have to know that we are sitting here with the best banking system in the world."
So guaranteed deposits should not be a problem if necessary....
Well, with apologies to Mandy, he would say that wouldn’t he.
@justa comment , can he say anything else .
His job is to keep confidence in the Banking system to prevent a run on the Banks , when the Bank's share prices have all but collapsed .
Some banks are facing a tsunami of loans that will default in the next 6 months , its a nightmare that you dont want to ever be a reality
Well some good news Boris has recovered and he's praised the NHS staff for saving his life. Perhaps he'll think twice now before selling the NHS off to Trump.
BBC Boris Johnson thanks NHS staff for coronavirus treatment
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52264247/boris-johnson-thanks-nhs-staff-…
I think we are all going to be ok. No.8 wire and all that. Who would have thought making a ventillator was so easy.
Got as far as #1. Got to be kidding, more than half the countries easily largest productive (essential) sector is in drought.
We're not looking to bad down here, pleased the cockie ran a mob of lambs into the camp paddock the other week cause the grass was getting away.
22 scientists who don't agree with this hypothesis, a very experienced group and worth your time to read/listen to these guys.
My question is: "why don't we hear this on radio or see them on TV ????
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavi…
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-cor…
The lack of robust discussion, and implications there of, concerns me more than the virus.
Agree.
Thanks for that. Indeed some reputable experts in that bunch questioning this whole palaver.
I'm no expert but have raised similar concerns. The retort is always 'you aren't an expert'. So it's good to have some experts at the table offering different views.
There has been a massive lack of balance in the MSM's assessment of the whole crisis.
Yes, the old "not an expert" line gets trotted out all the time these days.
My six year old does not have a PhD in Physics, has no formal training in chemistry, biology, or any other "hard"science, and has never seen a real dinosaur.
But do you know what, he knows that dropping a drinking glass on conrete will break the glass and the not the driveway. He knows that water is wet, and that a cat eats a mouse. He can also identify more dinosaurs from a vague outline than I even knew existed.
An expert is just someone that decided they wanted to get formally assessed on a topic. It does not make them smarter, it does not make them right, it just means they got at least a C in their course, and/or favourably quoted the lecturer's textbook.
Those comments are all pretty dated now, most at least 3 weeks old at this point when the death rate is much worse.
They all seem pre-occupied by the fatality rate of 0.3-1% and are missing the point that because COVID-19 spreads very rapidly within a population, much more rapidly than flu does (R0 of between 2.5 and 4, vs ~1.3 for flu), many many people come down with it at once. I've seen other data saying the average stay in hospital for someone with COVID-19 is about 11 days, compared to 5-6 for influenza.
Put all of that together and you end up with a hospital system that can't cope with the admissions. Therefore the fatality rate climbs much higher than 1% - as we've been seeing in Italy and Spain, because people with COVID-19 who need treatment can't get it.
Furthermore, people who need treatment for other things like heart attacks can't get it either, because the hospital is clogged with COVID-19 patients instead.
If you can find an expert that acknowledges the above and still thinks the global approach to combat COVID-19 is misguided, I'd been keen to see it.
Finally, 97% of climate scientists think climate change is driven by human activity. 3% disagree, but that doesn't make them right.
Risky business, this being old, and not only from The Virus! (I had tears of laughter steaming down my face after reading this!)
A pensioner who was given a surprise flight in a fighter jet as a retirement present was flung out at 2500 feet after grabbing the ejector seat handle to "steady himself". He shot out at high speed, losing his helmet that had not been fastened around his chin properly, before landing in a field close to the German border. His anti-g force suit, worn by aviators who are subject to high acceleration forces and designed to prevent a blackout, had also become loose. This situation generated a feeling of stress for the passenger...Once informed that his passenger had ejected, the pilot realises that he should have been ejected too. The pensioner had expected a gentle ascent, but the plane "climbed at 47 degrees", compared to around 10 to 15 degrees for a standard passenger plane. There was a loud bang, with the force of the ejection tearing his unsecured mask and oxygen mask away.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324…
Likewise. Monty Python couldn’t have thought that one up. Anyone who says that the French are different, certainly knows the art of understatement.
#5 If this government had continued the infrastructure building that was already in place 2 & a half years ago, think how much further down the path of better infrastructure we'd be.
Haha, yes more empty roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA
Rather like some of the cornucopians hereabouts
#5. Talked to my neighbour who runs a QS firm, re the pipeline of projects. He says it's surprisingly good: some projects unsurprisingly canned for funding withdrawal and others placed in the freezer for the time being, to be defrosted later, when more certainty returns to calculations and outlook.
But Gubmint and TLA's are both looking for quick-start projects that have passed the feasibility, cost/benefit hurdles that QS are intimately involved in generating, and they (amazingly) are also asking what is standing in the way of rapid progression. Usual suspects - RMA and consenting.....So there seems to be an indication that, once the rocks in the path have been identified, them rocks may well be drilled, jelly inserted, and those obstacles blown to smithereens.
At least that's the fond hope. Because nothing less is gonna get Potential Projects out of the Regulatory Gumbo and into Construction, which is where the jobs are and where the economic activity starts again.
Oh yes please! Just how I would love to see The Brown Cardigan Brigade drilled, jelly inserted and the rest of it!
Providing we start loosening things in the next couple of weeks things won’t be too bad!
The government has paid out billions of dollars to people that will be going thru the system.
Many businesses may have been struggling anyway and this will have knocked them off and unfortunAtely we will be carrying slot more unemployed.
Many will have to decide whether they want to continue their business and some will close.
Reality is though that NZ can not afford to have the majority of us closed up on the basis that we will unfortunately lose may of our older citizens!
Lockdown indefinitely will have us losing a heck of alot more middle aged business owners due to depression from financial pressure.
This is not a killer virus any more than the flu that many get every year!,
This is not a killer virus.......
Does it mean that entire world is overreacting.....
Reality is though that NZ cannit afford......... Reality is No One in Worlds cannot afford.... Not just NZ
Reality check : Economy World over is gone for a toss....... Be Positive but not.....
This is not a killer virus any more than the flu that many get every year!
I would be interested in your explanation here. How do you reconcile this with the overwhelming of healthcare services in New York state, for example?
(Not to mention obvious examples such as Italy.)
I apologise before I write tonight. I lost it this afternoon. The absurdity of the whole situation here in NZ is beyond belief. The media have been shown to be the worst kind of media. Full of shit with no balls. If they'd had any balls they would have done some live studio stuff, getting a range of views from a range of kiwis - 2 metres apart of course. I've not only lost my freedoms, I've lost my livelihood & am in the process of losing my business. I've also lost 3 staff who are damn good at their jobs & maybe in the process of losing my 38 year marriage if it carries on much longer. I am told I need to put up with very poor leadership for the rest of the year & maybe another one if she postpones the election. I am pretty depressed right now & may have to kill somebody soon - possibly myself. Is there anyone out there that can talk some sense into this lot?
We need to march. We need to stand up & be counted. We need to Get New Zealand Working again.
Totally agree. Hold tight man, there's a lot suffering. Those of us (most) who are not 100% safe in jobs and incomes hear you. Ignore the idiots who have safe jobs and / or wealth and who are dismissive of the economic impacts of this.
We will be out of lockdown in a bit over a week. We will, even this govt know the country can't sustain the economic and social damage.
Are you OK? Reach out. Many of us are hurting, you aren't alone.
By the way, join me in not watching any TV news and minimising Herald / Stuff exposure.
Well this mes will almost certainly see Kiwis booting this Government out in September .
Whether any Government could fix it is questionable , maybe we need to ask John Key to come back
I am not sure about that Boatman. Most of the masses seem to be adoring of Jacinda. Like she's Mother Mary or something.
There's lots of people hurting though and we are probably not hearing their voice because of our fawning media.
Disgusting, really.
And this is coming from me, of centre-left persuasion....
BTW, I came around to the lockdown, eventually. My deep concern is the lack of certainty as to when it will end, the potential it could be extended, and the lack of any apparent economic plan.
Recent polling has put Labour at 49% and National at 35%. Hence why National are now calling for the election to be delayed.
80% of the public support the government's actions so far and 66% would accept the lockdown being extended.
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