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7 Comments
Are there any reporters in New Zealand who are capable of critically challenging the data and asking penetrating questions that actually put those being questioned on the spot? The Q & A session here was akin to watching a group of pre-schoolers timidly ask the headmaster what he had for lunch yesterday!
"You say that you are pleased that First Home Buyers are increasingly getting new lending from the banks, but what does your information tell you about where these borrowers are getting the substantial deposits required from, to enter the market? Changing the LVR ratios would appear to have no impact on a banking system that assesses loan affordability on the capacity to repay the loans at higher than current market rates, so where does the deposit money come from, even if the new ratio 'allows' First Home Buyers to have to deposit less than they do now? If the answer is "it comes from other family members" isn't the RBNZ just potentially entrapping not only the current tranche of First Home Buyers into possibly unaffordable debt, but ensnaring their (parent's) in the same dilemma? What I am asking is 'How do your models account for the multi-generation impact of falling property prices on the New Zealand economy?"
(NB: Even the TV3 mid-30's woman presenter said this morning that "There's no way I could have afforded to enter the market without the Bank of Mum and Dad", and she...is probably on a salary far in excess of the norm?)
Hi Jenee.
I thought you were very good this morning. But why don't journalists ask more direct questions?
'Governor Orr, does the economy collapse if we don't increase the amount of lending to the housing market every year?'
'Governor, I see the banks have all lowered their 1 year fixed rates for mortgages, do you think they are concerned about the affordability of debt on their books in the absence of liquidity provided from overseas? are you concerned?'
It's about asking questions to put them on the spot.. How many opportunities do journalists get each year to really ask some probing questions? It's the difference between reporting, which is saying what someone wants you to say and journalism, which is trying to uncover some truth from a situation. What's the worst thing that can happen...... 'Well I'm not answering that.'
(edit for hurried spelling, punctuation and poor grammar... it was very bad, I'm surprised some of my fellow commentators didn't pull me up on it before, with apologies)
Nic
"You and your colleagues have presented us with your expected outcome for the New Zealand economy. But what is your 'Worst case' scenario? For instance, what does your modelling tell your about a property market fall similar to that of another country of our size in the last 10 years, where the residential property market prices collapsed in the vicinity of 60% across the country and even more in their equivalent of our Auckland, Dublin?"
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