Content supplied by RoyMorgan
In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.
- The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.
- Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.
- Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5%.
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating up in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 5pts to 139.5pts in July with 63% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 23.5% of NZ electors (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says this year’s New Zealand Election is on a knife’s edge and New Zealand First are likely to decide the Government:
“New Zealand’s Election in two months is now too close to call with governing National falling to 43% in July (down 3.5%) now just behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance on 44% (up 4.5%). This month’s tight result means New Zealand First with 8% support (down 1%), led by maverick MP Winston Peters, are once again in the box seat to determine which parties form Government.
“The drop in support for National follows the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay – forced to step down as a candidate at the forthcoming election after it emerged he had secretly recorded staffers in his office. Questions have been raised about Prime Minister Bill English’s leadership given his handling of the situation.
“The open squabbling this week between potential governing partners the Greens and New Zealand First after Greens MP Barry Coates suggested the Greens would find a Labour-New Zealand First Government ‘unacceptable’ and potentially force a new election shows the instability that may await New Zealand in the wake of a close election result. Coates’ comments also strengthen National’s negotiating hand with New Zealand First.
“In contrast to the political gamesmanship in Wellington, New Zealanders aren’t interested in the political intrigue and a recent Roy Morgan New Zealand Issues survey shows Economic issues, including Poverty and the gap between rich and poor, mentioned by 26.7% of New Zealanders, House prices and Housing affordability (13.7%) and Housing shortages and Homelessness (9.6%) are the major issues voters want the parties to address to win their votes.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.
Government confidence rating
| Right direction |
Wrong direction |
Roy Morgan GCR* |
Can't say |
Total | |
| % | % | Pts | % | % | |
| 2017 | |||||
| Jun 26 - Jul 9 | 63 | 23.5 | 139.5 | 13.5 | 100 |
| May 29 - Jun 11 | 61.5 | 27 | 134.5 | 11.5 | 100 |
| May 1-14 | 60.5 | 27 | 133.5 | 12.5 | 100 |
| April 3-16 | 58 | 29 | 129 | 13 | 100 |
| Feb 27 - Mar 12 | 61.5 | 25.5 | 136 | 13 | 100 |
| Jan 30 - Feb 12 | 63.5 | 23.5 | 140 | 13 | 100 |
| January 3-16 | 63 | 23 | 140 | 14 | 100 |
| 2016 | |||||
| Nov 28 - Dec 11 | 58.5 | 27.5 | 131 | 14 | 100 |
| Nov 7-20 | 65 | 24 | 141 | 11 | 100 |
| Oct 10-23 | 55.5 | 29 | 126.5 | 15.5 | 100 |
| Sep 5-18 | 52 | 35 | 117 | 13 | 100 |
| Aug 8-21 | 58 | 30.5 | 127.5 | 11.5 | 100 |
| July 4-17 | 57.5 | 30.5 | 127 | 12 | 100 |
| May 30 - Jun 12 | 54.5 | 34 | 120.5 | 11.5 | 100 |
| May 2-15 | 59 | 29 | 130 | 12 | 100 |
| Apr 4-17 | 57.5 | 30.5 | 127 | 12 | 100 |
| Feb 29 - Mar 13 | 61 | 29 | 132 | 10 | 100 |
| Feb 1-14 | 56.5 | 28.5 | 128 | 15 | 100 |
| Jan 4-17 | 59.5 | 28 | 131.5 | 12.5 | 100 |
86 Comments
I was lamenting Richard Wilkinson's TED talk on inequality the other day. Apparently a lot of negative societal indicators strongly correlate to inequality. Things that you wouldn't expect like suicide, crime, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, mental illness & depression, drug & alcohol abuse. It would be interesting to track some of those specific indicators in New Zealand over the last 8 years.
Nicely put Fatpat and Smalltown. NZ Herald is running articles on youth suicide at the moment... there is very little there on inequality. Tragically the elephant in the room is not allowed to be addressed, when it was s the only way we can maintain our 'rockstar' economy.
The first line of defence against youth suicide, depression +anxiety, drug and alcohol use, teenage pregnancy etc should be the community itself. Then the various mental health support services. Improving community support for youth worked for places like Iceland -it is simple, practical, doable..... Check it out
https://medium.com/land-buildings-identity-and-values/it-takes-a-villag…
Here is Al Jezera doing a piece on NZ's high youth suicide rate
https://www.facebook.com/DavidClarkMP/videos/1456021024465325/
My take on NZ's horrible youth suicide rates is the number opened up in the 1980s/90s. Reform (some which were necessary) was done too hard and too fast. In some cases babies were thrown out with the bath water. NZ was too ideological 'pure' with the likes of Ruth Richardson in believing free market doctrine could solve all ills. Communities were unnecessarily smashed and some have never recovered. For youth -if you go to the right school and live in the right suburb -NZ ticks along with good supports -sport, drama, supportive social networks..... But for a good half of the population it isn't like that anymore.......
good Iceland article, glosses over drugs and alcohol a bit.I note Iceland's drinking age is now 20, and our's has been 18 for far too long.Drugs and booze are far too rife in schools, even in higher socioeconomic areas.
I heard a few months ago that a Pakuranga school busted 20 kids in one swoop for cannabis at school.
I was on NBR recently saying I'd like to be taxed more not less recently, and saying similar, that went down well over there :)
I have no interest in tax cuts whatsoever, what I want is a functioning society, and if I pay more for that and others less then so be it.
We won't progress as a nation without better education, healthcare - the better educated the populace the more opportunity there is, more opportunity, less crime, fewer children bought up in poverty, as better educated women tend to have fewer children, productivity goes up, GDP goes up, taxes in turn go up.
Preventative healthcare (also to do partly with education) we've a time bomb of diabetes and heart disease coming unless we can encourage better eating habits, make fresh food cheaper - stop that and you've freed up funding for other areas of health, including research.
I agree - In Germany you're allowed to earn 8820 euros tax free + 7000 per child tax free. Anything over that is taxed at 45%. You also pay a lot in health insurance, and other bits and pieces which add up to at least 400 euros per month. The also have steep inheritance tax. The GST rates on food are deliberately low and food is amazingly inexpensive in Germany. They have a fully functional health care system and relatively low levels of inequality. It's mind boggling to me that politicians in NZ talking about pushing the levers in a more regressive direction.
Indeed, it amazes me that NZ being so new, hasn't looked at the best performing nations in the world and said "I know we'll adapt that for NZ" seems it was in the beginning but now seems to have just followed Thatcherism/Reagonomics since the 80's. I moved from the UK a decade ago and it's genuinely upsetting/startling seeing policies being re-enacted here - selling state houses (tick), selling assets overseas (tick), tax cuts for the wealthy (tick), lowered business taxes (tick), rampant buy to let (tick), private prisons (tick), corporate welfare (tick). Sell off the profits, socialise the debts. I've only been here 10 years so I'm sure there are many mistakes in my outsider-ish view, happy to stand corrected.
Well, for the last nine years we had a PM who was absolutely enamoured with the USA, which probably didn't help. Moreover, we seem to have a few politicians who look not to successful European countries but with admiration at less successful ideologically-driven ideas.
I do think we need to be very careful of the Wilkinsons 'spirit level' thesis - especially as it applies in New Zealand. I read their book (twice in fact), but remain very unconvinced by the data they use for New Zealand. I am not unfamiliar with the NZ data. Which makes me wonder about the validity as it applies elsewhere. I reworked a series of his charts based on what we have here (admitedly a few years ago now), and could not duplicate what they showed in many of them. Perhaps I didn't do enough? but I did enought to build some wide scepticism. There could be a wide range of other reasons their correlations apply.
It looked to me like the Wilkinsons started with a conclusion and attempted to fit a story to that based on data. It may well be true for other countries (especually the UK) but I doubt its relevance here. We need to be careful that we don't re-colonise our thinking with English 'facts'.
I am not saying we don't have issues here - we do, in spades. But just not as the Spirit Level describes (and it does mention NZ a lot).
Blindly assuming NZ's issues are the same as those in the UK (or the US) is lazy. And correlation is not cause.
don't most journalists start with preconceived ideas based on their background and then interpret the raw data with a little bias, I would suggest that is human nature and even if you try to be impartial it will still happen.
that is why scientific experiments run a control for comparison, and without it you can not compare apples with apples..
I am not arguing against the right of orgainsations to engage in 'advocacy'. We are all better off when there is robust debate. (Greenpeace, Fish&Game, Forest&Bird, Taxpayers Union, Bankers Association, etc.) The issue comes when others can't determine the difference between 'advocacy' and balanced analysis.
Advocates tell their stories to convince. They try to present themselves as 'fair' and 'balanced' but rarely are. They gloss over invconvient aspects, or ignore them altogether. The issue is not their mild forms of propaganda, it is the inability of their targets to apply critical thinking to what they are presented with. (And yes, ditto with news stories - even those that appear on interest.co.nz.)
In this case, the Wilkinsons are simply advocates for a left wing point of view. Some good stuff there but much counterveiling, broader stuff either wrong or completely ignored. (btw, I have similar but lower level concerns with Piketty. He is much more balanced from my NZ viewpoint.)
Poll or polls - National will and has to go.
Reason mentioned are correct :Poverty, Housing, Homelessness, Inequality......... on this reason National must be happy that they are at 43% as on this basis should be much less.
For the reason mentioned in the article on which people will vote : Will be deja wu to Bill English but should console himself that at least was PM for 10 months even if by default.
It's nice to see mobile included within this poll, I'm in the 35-44 age range, and even amongst my age group I know no-one who uses a landline, in the younger age brackets there will be a handful who have one. All the other polls showing National romping home have all been conducted by Landline, meaning National (typically older voters) have seemed to be doing remarkably well. Perversely, I won't be massively disappointed if National get in again, the housing fall out is of their making and they deserve to own the mess that they, if not created, stoked to the inferno it is today. Much like the Tory party in the UK, they win this one, next one they'll be out for a generation and the country can make proper progress.
I reckon pollsters should be using mobiles more than landlines now, although it must be a real pain doing it, I wonder how many numbers they would call before they got someone who qualified for the poll. I am in my 60s and now rely entirely on a mobile phone. Landlines are going the way of the dinosaur.
A very good point, to the extent that if the result is close, and it is likely to be, then future circumstances could well see an early next election called, should National form the government from this one. Strategically, it may well be better for Labour and the Greens not to take over the reins just as the whole house of cards comes down. Only trouble is, National have some seriously bad cards up their sleeves where the environment goes and certainly do not plan to turn down the immigration tap, in fact, I strongly suspect they will turn it up further in a desperate measure to keep the whole ponzi going.
The odd one out is the Brexit polling. In nearly every other 2016/2017 vote, polling was remarably accurate. France, Holland, Austria, Australia, Canada, and a number of others, polling was a very good indicator. Even in the US, they came close to accurately predicting the actual US Presidential vote. (What they didn't account for there was their subsequent Electoral College.) I wouldn't dismiss proper statistical method just because of one rogue result (Brexit).
Polls are still very reliable, which is why political parties spend most of their money on them and modify their messaging based on what they find. Modified messaging changes poll outcomes.
Uk election, May by a landslide? Although the exit polls called it, the polls beforehand were out by a mile. I think that, more than others, will show this election - the young got out and voted, which they hadn't for a generation, I reckon they'll vote Green here and we'll see a rise in youth turnout.
three polls came out all around the same national verses labour/greens neck and neck with WP as kingmaker.
will be an interesting election as now ACT's one seat is now irrelevant so why bother with the cup of tea.
peter dunne is also looking at the end of the road,
so what will become of the Maori party 2-3 seats not going to help either side.
national have been their own worst enemy burning the bridges with the conservatives 3.97% and WP,
so now we have a small percentage looking for a new home and how much will TOP get, national should offer them a cup of tea, might be the difference of where they sit in the house.
the most interesting part for me will be the final makeup as to the direction we head
will we get tax cuts or the money spent, will immigration be cut or tinkered, will foreign ownership of our property be banned, will new laws come in favouring tenants, will the state start building houses
Agreed sharetrader. Due to selling out to retiring speculators and overseas owners Nats has created a new working poor...the middle class, who all need working for families just to get by.
Also agree that phone polling by land line is very demographic targeting, 40+ homeowners. Those renting with a cellphone don't waste money on land lines anymore. WOFTAM.
for someone that held power for so long the lack of legacy policy or a monument is astonishing. is that not the point of politicians to change what, how we do things to match their vision good or bad.
some call it steady hand some of us call it wasted opportunity especially in the early years when you had the numbers and the excuse GFC to make big changes, Jk only ambition was to stay in charge as long as possible
Winston was villified and smeared for 20 years over the winebox affair and then the Panama Papers came along and proved him right. Winston has been smeared for years over his stance on immigration - now those silent witnesses are witnessing he was right - and still he is abandoned.
How do you rate Bill English for the number of homeless people he has created by his successes arising out of his Muldoon style "Think Big" immigration policies while screwing infrastructure spending down at the same time, plus the chaos on Aucklands roads under his financial stewardship
And I forgot the debt mountain Billybob owns
You only have to look at the UK, as to what is likely to happen in NZ, with the steady immigratio inflow, and the growing divide between rich and poor only getting worse. We will end up with big council /state housing units, called apartments. These will become ghettos over time. At the moment the UK has thousands of 'homeless'. These are people who have had to be put in temporary substandard council accommodation (eg cocunil flats due to be demolished due to being too old and leaking etc), due to lack of housing. Sound familiar?
It is interesting in the UK, that if you get a government benefits, you can't rent privately, due to insurers not covering you. So people aren't able to rent out their house to beneficiaries. So the main way for people in council flats to move, is to swap units amongest themselves.
I don't like the way NZ is heading, and as a result, we are becoming a meaner and more self centered society.
If nothing else its going to be one of the most exciting elections in years. The people are so polarized or at least you would get that impression here, but will the voter turnout be any better than years gone past ? New Zealand First definitely looks to be in the mix this time around unless Winnie puts his foot in his mouth.
I am always amused by Kiwis postulating about Germany its taxes and and its social system .
For the most part , Kiwis really dont have a clue .
German taxes are high , but they get it all back in social services and education healthcare and very high wages and salaries ( compared with us ) .
There is a good working relationship between labour ( trade Unions ) and business , not this negative lefty culture of expectation and entitlement overlaid with aggressive nonsense we see the the NZ workplace .
So until we have all the social benefits and high wages that Germans have , I am NOT HAPPY TO PAY MORE TAX
And Boatman, if we could only find a way, as Germany has, to peg our currency to the hugely poorly performing socialist southern European members of the Euro, we too could become a global powerhouse exporter, and charge our citizens high taxes and pay for everybody's welfare/lifestyles.
The thing with WP, is that he can promise the world to voters, and even if he helps form a government, he doesn't have to follow through because the are policies they other parties won't agree with. In a way he is in an ideal position. He really know how to work with MMP well, and wasn't that long ago when NZ first had totally disappeared from parliament. I wonder if he will be the next PM, or at least deputy?
Roy Morgan is being disingenuous suggesting the fall in National support is related to the Todd Barclay issue in 2016 .
Frankly . no one cares about that . Barclay was an arrogant upstart , who let the trappings of office go to his head . He was heading for a fall
It had no effect on the thought processes of middle New Zealand and we can see it for what it was
Us older voters are swinging towards NZ First simply because the Nats were neither honest nor forthcoming with us about the Immigration policy they have pursued .
While we now have houses worth over $1,0 million , we also have hopelessly congested roads , straining infrastructure in healthcare and education , a real risk to our future superannuation , and a steady erosion of our way of life .
Quite honestly , we cannot go on like this , and NZ First will ensure that the current immigration settings are stopped in their tracks
And we will live with the consequences , no matter what scare - mongering is in play .
Labour wants to attempt to revive the socialist working -mans paradise of the post war era , and even wants to build houses for everyone .....................and with all the will in the world , its not going to happen .
QandA versus Winston Peters - Blood sport on TVNZ
Watched Corin Dann interview Winston Peters on Q+A 16 July on TVNZ OnDemand - he went up Winston like a rat up a drain pipe, interrupting him, talking over the top of him, never letting him finish, never once listened, he was too busy asking the next question. Then back to the previous week 9 July where Corin Dann interviewed Bill English. Billy Boy got an armchair ride, politeness itself never demanding answers, never once interrupted him. Billy never once answered the questions, and got away with it.
Winston is fair game for every ratbag that wants to have a go
Why would you vote for a minor party that won't say which major party they will go for ? So its leader can milk the best personal position for himself?
The deputy prime minister, or prime minister, don't actually have any extra power in NZ, other than they usually lead the largest party. Still just have one vote.
Typical silly smear aimed at Winston Peters
The same reasoning applies to the major parties declaring who they are willing to get into bed with (and how many) and WHAT concessions they will make to the minor parties to stay in or get into power
Don't try and tell us the only seducer is WP - watch how quick Wild Bill is to get his pants off
Solardub - I think the idea is that the minor party milk the best concessions based on their campaigning positions.
One hopes that if it is indeed NZF at the time then concessions will be made on immigration, public health, changes to foreign ownership rules and the student scam because the status quo cannot continue.
Student scam and immigration are the same issue. It is feeding money to corrupt businesses who are lobbying our government and feeding 's**t' to NZ's international reputation. Some of the extreme cases are simply evil and we are looking the other way. Sad that it is only a threat to vote NZFirst that is getting the other parties to mention it.
... politics is an absolute dog-eat-dog businesss ...
After all these years , the Greens are still shooting themselves in the foot , being staunchly ideological , and being shot plum through their tiny little Greenheads whenever it suits their Labour lover to do so ...
... everyone else gets it ... it's MMP ... until the Greens wake up to that fact and develop some street smarts , a big chunk of mongrel ... then a vote for them is a vote wasted ...
Winston Peters , please step aside : at their conference the Greens have revealed a policy ... an answer to " Life , the Universe , and everything " ...
... they have solved child poverty , income inequality , crime , drugs , every-bloody-thing which bedevils New Zealand society !
Now .... are you all sitting comfy , nice and warm on your botties ? ... Good ! ... then I shall share the newfound wisdom of the Gods & Galaxies with you ...
.. we need to raise the top rate of PAYE to 40 % , for anyone earning above $ 100 000 p.a. ... and we need to drop the bottom tax threshold % from 10.5 , to 9.0 % ...
WOW !!!!! ... makes you wonder why no one else thought of it before ...
... wow , bro ... I think I love you !
Yes .. why does a country with no state religion allow the religions to get off scot free ... as if the Catholic Church , Destiny , Jehovah's Witlesses , and the 7'th Day Tax Dodgers are doing any good for our society ...
.... I recall that the 0 % tax threshold in Australia is for any income up to $A 18 000 ... $ 350 / week ... that would be a bigger shot in the arm for lower income groups than any idiotic increases to WFF or other equally bonedead welfare packages ... why can't we match the Aussies ?
@Gummy Bear ....... the reality is that Greenlabour think they have solutions for every ill and they even want to start a massive construction Company and build houses for everyone and even sell them at a loss ............... until the money runs out .
And thats the nub of it , the problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of money and then you run out other peoples money to spend
... ah but , Mr B ... when you run out of money , you import an expert economist ... such as the fine Gideon Gono , who was running the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe .. and set him to cranking out the $ Trillion notes , as he did there ...
The Greens have it sussed , dude !
I have voted Labour all my life on principle but they won't get my vote this year. NZ First are still the only party to make a stand on the things that matter most to me; that we should not be selling public assets (power companies) or land to foreign interests, that immigration is a problem not a solution and that middle NZ faces extinction. Our current path leads to 2 social classes; the overlords and the rest.
Personally I've had a good run, enjoyed the life that social mobility made possible- I'm financially comfortable, nice home, investments, etc. But many younger people have no chance of that.
I want my kids to have a future in a country similar to that which I grew up in. NZ first are a risk but at least with MMP they are likely to not actually do damage but make Nat/ Lab take note of why they (NZ First) gained so many votes. Otherwise it's just a repeat of the last 9 years.
interesting I was against the sale of the power cos for the following reasons ( I brought all three}
1 the sale was ideological and not economic
2 the money from the sale was not going to be used prudently ie pay down debt or to invest in better income producing assets, can anyone name where the money went apart from "new assets " as sold by JK
3 the figures did not add up, ie cost of forgoing the dividend against interest rate cost
4 why sell only 49% and not 100% of two of them
I was not against selling power companies for the right reasons, and have no worries about the government only needing to own (100%) one company (with generation in both islands) for security of supply so if more generation is needed they could quicker move to accomplish the task.
As for sale of any land to non citizens, totally agree, it is wrong when we have RE actively advertising in overseas countries so they can make commissions, and no law to stop them.
I have no problem with them buying new builds (helps supply), but the tax laws need to be tidied up so they pay for the infrastructure they are taking advantage of whilst not contributing to the tax take
then we have HIGH immigration which we are starting to feel the problems, crowded everything, i am sick of hearing from people without a kiwi accent telling me you don't know what crowded is where i come from yadda yadda. The point is as a born kiwi I find Auckland crowded, too many people for the resources needed for us all to be looked after and i hope we don't spread it to other parts of NZ but fear for some places like Tauranga and Hamilton its too late
this also needs to be tided up, we need to know what is the population figure each party wants by 2020 so we can vote accordingly
Has anyone noticed that the herald is running a divide and conquer campaign against NZ First, the Greens, and Labour. Its a very cleaver strategy favouring National. It's seems quite possible to me that NZF / Green / Labour are the only parties capable of dethroning National in a coalition.
I doubt that Peters will side with National. Just listening to his parliamentary speeches, one posted on interest a few weeks ago, it was vitriolic anti-neoliberal. The herald is running an outright attack campaign against him too. Practically accused him of being the centre of a neo nazi organisation because he signed some green frog photo at Victoria uni. How come John Key is allowed to horse around planking with uni students but when Peters does it he's a neo-nazi? That article could be a factor in the recent polling.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11888810
Pepe is just a meme. However fake news like the NZH will claim whatever fits with their propaganda. If the NZH is so in love with the National Party perhaps they should get a room.
The link is to an article about the creator of Pepe.
http://time.com/4530128/pepe-the-frog-creator-hate-symbol/
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