9.00pm
That wraps up our coverage for the night. Thank you for joining us. We will be watching to see how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responds to the result when it reviews the Official Cash Rate tomorrow morning.
8.56pm
Trump in his speech says he is reaching out to those who chose not to support him, asking for their help to unify the country.
"America will no longer settle for anything but the best," he says.
"While we will always put America's interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone."
8.47pm
8.46pm
Clinton calls Trump to concede. Trump to give victory speech.
8.39pm
News organisations are calling it... Donald Trump looks to be the next President of the United States of America.
8.36pm
Trump wins swing state Wisconsin, securing another 10 electoral votes.
8.35pm
The Financial Times reports Germany's defence minister, Ursula von der Leyen has appeared on TV urging Trump to avoid isolationism.
"It's in Europe's interest that the US remains open to the world," she said. She added there were many "open questions" about Trump's intentions, including his attitude to Nato and to Russian president Vladimir Putin.
8.24pm
Trump: 266, Clinton: 218, according to most of the main US news outlets.
8.14pm
8.07pm
Clinton secures four votes from Maine, Trump gets five from Nebraska. Some news organisations still not making a call on the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
7.48pm
Infometrics economist Benje Patterson on Twitter:
7.44pm
Trump wins Alaska. Counting Pennsylvania he only looks to be three electoral votes off becoming President.
7.40pm
The AP is reporting Trump has won the key swing state of Pennsylvania, worth a crucial 20 electoral votes.
7.31pm
Republicans have clinched a dramatic, unexpected victory in the battle for the Senate, with the Democrats only picking up one seat. Party dominance in Congress will be a crucial determinant of the policy-making outlook for the next president. The House has been in Republican hands since 2011 and has been a bastion of resistance to Democratic President Barack Obama's agenda.
The likelihood of the Trans-Pacific Partnership being passed is exceptionally slim.
7.22pm
Republicans retain control of the Senate with victory in Pennsylvania, according to the AP.
7.18pm
Electoral vote consensus across news agencies: Trump: 244, Clinton: 215. Winner needs 270.
7.13pm
Winston Peters is trying to capitalise on the US's discontent, here in NZ. He has made this Facebook post:
Today the USA joined the UK in sending the establishment a message.
The same thing that happened today in the US, and what happened earlier with Brexit in the UK, is happening here in NZ.
Many of you, just as in the UK and USA, have been used and abused by the old political parties, and all of the new ones, except one.
You’ve been ignored by the political parties who have been blind to your problems and deaf to your voices.
My message to you today is, “I hear you. I see your troubles and help is on the way.”
7.08pm
Swing state update according to the NY Times:
Trump leading Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (worth 30 electoral votes). Clinton leading Minnesota and New Hampshire (worth 14 votes).
7.00pm
Odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year being dashed.
6.50pm
The New Zealand dollar remains weak against the US at 73.1 USc. It stooped as low as 72.9 USc earlier this evening, as investors surprised by the level of support Trump has received, retreated to cash.
6.34pm
Markets are going crazy. Here's a wrap from Bloomberg:
* S&P 500 Index futures slide as much as 5 percent
* FTSE 100 Index future drop 4.7 percent
* MSCI Asia Pacific Index drops 2.9 percent
* Mexican peso tumbles 12 percent, breaching 20 per dollar for first time
* Japanese yen climbs 3.9 percent, most since Brexit
* Euro, Swiss franc rise more than 2 percent
* Gold jumps 4.7 percent, most since 2009
* Crude oil slides 3.5 percent
* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drops 14 basis points to one-month low of 1.72 percent
6.30pm
Clinton has won Nevada.
6.09pm
Trump has won the swing state of Iowa.
5.57pm
Here's an electoral vote update:
CNN: Trump: 232, Clinton: 209
Bloomberg: Trump: 238, Clinton: 209
New York Times: Trump: 216, Clinton: 209
5.46pm
Canada's immigration website has been crashing repeatedly throughout the day, as reported here.
5.39pm
Trump wins key state of Georgia, according to AP. That's another 16 electoral votes.
5.33pm
Trump wins Utah, Clinton wins Washington, according to AP.
5.26pm
NZ Herald cartoonist, Rod Emmerson:
5.20pm
Trump has won North Carolina. This gives him another 15 electoral votes.
5.18pm
The world has seen a Brexit-style sell-off in global markets as the possibility of a Trump Presidency started to emerge. Oil prices have tumbled, the gold price has shot up and New Zealand shares dramatically reversed earlier rises, finishing up about 3.5% down. Asian markets have all been strongly sold-off too.
5.10pm
The Business Insider's most read story at the moment is a piece entitled, 'How to move to Canada'... We're not joking.
5.04pm
A big win for Clinton. She's won 55 electoral votes to secure California as expected. She's also taken Hawaii and Oregon. This has put Clinton ahead of Trump in CNN's electoral vote count, at 190, while Trump has 186. He has also just secured Idaho.
4.55pm
News outlets are starting to report Trump has won the key swing state of Florida. This is huge, as it has 29 electoral votes. Clinton has won Colorado.
4.44pm
Interest rates have been jumping all over the place. Before about 4pm the swap rates had all reacted positively, expected a Clinton win, but that has reversed. We have seen the US10-yr go from 1.896% this morning to 1.73% now. The New Zealand share market is now down about 3% after being up earlier. The gold price is now above US$1320 after being just US1270 earlier. Penny for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler's thoughts. He has to make a call on interest rates via the OCR tomorrow morning.
4.35pm
Clinton takes swing state Virginia. The New York Times forecasts there's an 87% chance of Trump winning the presidency.
4.26pm
Trump has won the key swing state of Ohio.
4.23pm
New Zealand sharemarket now down over 2%, gold price up above US$1310.
4.20pm
Clinton has won New Mexico, Trump has won Missouri.
4.12pm% 
4.09pm
Trump has won Montana. He has 139 electoral votes, Clinton has 104.
4.05pm
The New Zealand share market has gone off faster than quick-dry concrete, with the benchmark NZX50 now down over 1.3% after being up earlier.
4.00pm
A man believed to be responsible for a fatal shooting near a polling station in California has been found dead, Los Angeles police say.
3.50pm
The Mexican peso is experiencing its biggest drop since Lehman Brothers collapsed eight years ago, Bloomberg reports, as Trump's victory chances improve.
3.41pm
Markets are officially getting very jumpy (or should that be Trumpy?) Gold has rocketed back up above US$1300 after languishing at about US$1270 an hour or two ago. New Zealand shares have reversed earlier gains, with the NZX 50 now down about 0.4% after being up by about 0.3% earlier. Stock futures in the US have tumbled.
3.35pm
Clinton has won Connecticut. Trump has won Louisiana. Trump is showing strength in a number of battleground states.
3.26pm
The New Zealand dollar is down against the US, as investors rush to safe havens - cash and bonds - in the face of uncertainty caused by Trump faring better than expected at this point in time. He is ahead in Florida.
3.13pm
Trump has taken Texas and Arkansas.
3.08pm
Trump has secured Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. Clinton wins New York. Clinton has 97 and Trump 84 of the electoral votes.
3.00pm
Clinton has won Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware and the District of Columbia. Trump has won Mississippi. Clinton has secured 68 and Trump 66 of the electoral votes. Whoever gets to 270 first wins.
2.50pm
One of the many gags flooding Twitter at present.
2.45pm
Trump has won Alabama.
2.19pm
Trump has won South Carolina and Tennessee. Here's where things are at:
2.08pm
The NZ dollar has kicked higher as early poll results in Florida show Clinton ahead. The Kiwi has been oscillating between US73.6c and US73.9c since lunchtime. China's CPI is due out at around 2.30pm but we'd suggest the traders will be more US election focused today. (CNN has Florida as too close to call).
2.05pm
Clinton has won Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Trump has won Oklahoma.
2.00pm
Swing state update: Clinton's ahead in Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. Trump's ahead in Virginia.
1.35pm
Trump has won West Virginia as expected.
1.25pm
Clinton is in the lead in the swing states of Florida and Virginia.
Interest.co.nz's in-house graphic designer, Jacky Carpenter, has whipped these up:
1.05pm
Trump has won Kentucky and Indiana. Clinton has won Vermont. No surprises here.
Trump remains in the lead in the swing state of New Hampshire, which voted Democrat in 2012 and 2008.
12.55pm
Trump is in the lead in Indiana as well.
12.35pm
A polling station in Azusa, California, is on lockdown after a shooting nearby has left four people injured. The police are dealing with a suspect they say is heavily armed.
12.10pm
The first polls have closed. Trump is in the lead in Kentucky and New Hampshire.
Noon:
Markets have their bets on Clinton.
11.45am
Here's photo evidence from Politico that pretty much sums up the insanity of the election.
11.30am
Here's what national exit polls conducted by Edison Research have found so far according to the Wall Street Journal. Note it is still early days and these findings can change.
- The number of voters who said trade with other countries, overall, creates more US jobs was about the same as the number who said it takes away US jobs.
- The three presidential debates seem to have had a big impact on the course of the presidential campaign. A majority of voters said the debates were either the most important factor in their vote for president or were an important factor.
- Asked about Clinton’s use of private email, 44% of voters said it bothered them a lot and 62% said it bothered them either some or a lot. About 37% said it bothered them not much or not at all. Asked about Trump’s treatment of women, 51% of voters said it bothered them a lot and 71% said it bothered them some or a lot. Only 28% said it bothered them not much or not at all.
10:00am
The NZD has risen to 74 USc, 59.7 UKp. On the interest rate front, the 10yr swap is now at 3.00%, another strong rise today.
9:30am
There are reports of long lines at voting booths across the country.
8:20am
Today there will be exit polls. Just what they mean is explained here.
7:30am
For the record, we start the day with the NZD at 73.5 USc and the UST 10yr benchmark yield at 1.87% (having jumped +.05% at 5am this morning NZT).
5.00am
Americans are heading to the polling booths in what's been described as the ugliest presidential election in the United States' history.
Democrat, Hilary Clinton, has been leading Republican, Donald Trump, in the opinion polls, but the margins are tight and the outcome's hard to predict.
Polling website RealClear Politics, has tipped Clinton to take 203, and Trump 164 Electoral College votes, leaving 171 up for grabs across 15 states.
Under the Electoral College system, the first candidate to get 270 votes wins. A candidate may therefore have less votes overall and still win, if they get votes in the right areas.
If no candidate receives a majority, the House of Representatives chooses the President and the Senate chooses the Vice President.
Averaging polling data from various media outlets, RealClear Politics has found there's 47% support for Clinton and 44% support for Trump.
The polling shows Clinton struggling to recoup ground after taking a knock when FBI director James Comey on October 28 [US time] informed congress there was potentially a new stash of emails that appeared to be 'pertinent' to the investigation of Clinton's use of a private email server.
While the FBI on Sunday cleared Clinton of criminal wrong-doing, the question will be whether the FBI's controversial handling of the issue, will sway voters.
As for Trump, the question will be whether voters are so disenfranchised with the status quo sociopolitical landscape, that they're willing to look past Trump's lies, sexism, racism and tax avoidance, to achieve 'change' of some sort.
What does this mean for New Zealand?
Importantly, both candidates are opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal among 12 Pacific-rim countries, excluding China, the New Zealand Government has been working on relentlessly.
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has dubbed the prospect of a Trump victory as "horrible".
It expects borrowing costs for New Zealand firms and mortgage-holders are likely to rise as credit conditions tighten in the face of uncertainty. It also maintains the New Zealand dollar could appreciate in the short term as markets are concerned about future US competitiveness.
Furthermore, a weaker US economy will have a negative impact on the $8.4 billion of goods and services we sell to the US.
As for a Clinton victory, the Wireless eloquently says this would be "less horrible", with many of the US's trade policies expected to stay the same.
Timeline
So how will the day play out? Here's a timeline put together with the help of The Telegraph (all times are in New Zealand time).
What happened overnight:
Some of the first results have been announced.
What's happening today:
Noon: The first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, two traditionally Republican states.
1pm: Polling stations start to close in the battleground states of Florida and Virginia, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont. The first state projections will be made based on exit polls.
1.30pm: Polls close in the traditionally Republican West Virginia, as well as two other swing states: Ohio and North Carolina.
2pm: Polls close in a host of states. Two of them, Pennsylvania and Michigan, are big target states. Other states where polls close are: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District Of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Texas.
3pm: Another flurry of activity when polls close in Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming. Colorado and Wisconsin are both swing states.
4pm: Poll closes in two swing states, Iowa and Nevada, plus Arizona, Montana and Utah. Utah could be interesting because Mormon and ex-CIA operative Evan McMullin has polled well.
5pm: Earliest possible time the election will be “called” for either candidate by US TV networks. It's also the time the polls close in California, a Democrat state with the most electoral college votes of any state (55), as well as Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
Stay online for updates from interest.co.nz throughout the day. We'll be sure to add both a Kiwi and a financial flavour to the coverage.
328 Comments
In the last few weeks the US has come to remind me of pre-Ayatollah Iran. There was not just the hard line Muslims wanting to see the Shah deposed, there was also those who wanted Iran to be more open, more "western" if you will, these people tended to be younger and more educated.
I've come to see Clinton as the Shah, Sanders representing those who wanted a more open society, and Trump the conservative Ayatollahs. Thankfully, it is now looking like the Ayatollahs of the US will not be taking power, as it would be as retrograde as them taking power in Iran, especially for women.
If the US is ever to overturn things they really need to think about what direction they want to go in - backwards or forwards.
Trump could actually be good for America , Clinton will be the same nonsense ............
More industrial decline
More job losses leading to social unrest and societal decay
More decay of infrastructure
More lobby groups making the laws in their own interests instead of citizens interests
More social problems with unemployed African American youth , which often turn violent
More wasteful expenditure and bigger deficits on defending countries like Japan, South Korea and Western Europe , etc which are wealthy enough to defend themselves
OK. Comment was that it was yesterdays index rise that made them richer. Correct if the journo is a goldfish with a 3 second memory but intentionally misleading if not. Symptomatic of the obsessive media focus on the contrast between the small number of obscenely rich and bottom rungers.
In decline?
Here was me believing the yank economy was showing stronger signs of recovery from the GFC than most, they were well on the way towards oil self sufficiency, their population replacement rate higher than most and their military capability generations ahead of any other country.
I can't have read the memo.
Think about what the world would look like had they not done QE. Plenty on this site will say it only staved off the inevitable for a while, others that a meltdown and rebuilding from the resulting chaos is a darwinist economic necessity but they gloss over the terrible human cost and the unknown political and societal outcomes. There are many failed megalomaniac artists with toothbrush moustaches waiting for just such a time.
With that logic you can justify any and all crimes. A failed business is a failed business....IF its not a corrupted one. Banks must be allowed to fail or you can forget any accountability or democracy in the future. A Corporatocracy is what you are essentially justifiying
Hold on a moment , there is no evidence anywhere of Trump's tax affairs being anything but correct .
He personally incurred US $900 million in losses when the casino went into Chapter 11 , and has been offsetting those losses on income earned since then .
What he has done is not illegal , its common practice over there and is certainly not "avoidance "
He lost US900 million of OTHER PEOPLE'S money and then rode a wave of avoiding his own PERSONAL tax for decades. That my friend is the definition of avoidance. As for right or wrong, this is to be taken in context within a country that has laws such as you being subject to imprisonment for 25 years for cutting down a cactus (Arizona) and it being a crime to take a photograph of a rabbit between January and April without a permit (Wyoming)
Not looking good. IMHO judging by trajectory of his own life and because so different, Trump has the potential to be one the best POTUS, while virtually guaranteed Hillary will not be remarkable for anything other than gender and negative baggage.
So, very sad that result of courage and selflessness Trump displayed by putting himself out there somehow results in this world letting him and positive possibilities slip through our fingers.
Something died.
The cold war and MAD were the background to my entire formative period. To this day I clearly remember as a little kid reading with fear the headlines in 1962 that WW3 was possible. Except back then both nuclear armed nations had recent searing memories of wars devastation, there was no nutcase in Pyongyang with a bomb and Islam was not at war with modernity. The geopolitical risk profile has since become infinitely more complicated and while Clinton leaves me cold, Trumps simplistic bellicose approach is more unnerving.
Some details here, now we're getting serious:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Codes
Really middleman. From what I have seen Trump has not -repeat not - taken up the chant of demonising the Russians. He is quite reasonable to them. Demonising and inventing enemies is a common process in the United States. Remember these are the guys who invaded Iraq after 9/11 when Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. Simply the USA needed somebody to hit at a time when they were upset. Such craziness is common in the corridors of Washington D.C. Trump might be different thankfully.
As for Clinton, she is a real worry right now. She wants to start an air war with Russia over Syria. (look it up - there is extensive concern about this right now) Madness. The tragedy of Syria does not need to be added to by the need of the US to have a war with somebody.
Of the two, I would be more worried about Clinton itching to push that nuclear button.
So when you say demonizing Russia and inventing enemies, are we talking about the same Oligarch controlled dictatorship that represses its people, crushes democratic dissent, forcibly annexes parts of foreign countries and exercises its military power with extreme brutality? The American invasion of Iraq was a chronic intelligence and leadership failure but to suggest Trump would not have been caught up in the same emotive reaction as Bush after 9/11, is fanciful. He would have unleashed the hounds just the same.
C'mon, the USA is basically a oligarchy / plutocracy now given that corporates routinely influence legislation through purchasing political power. While Russia is far from perfect, American has got a terrible track record of instigating war and trying to influence foreign politics.
Well yes, on further consideration I guess you are right that they are much the same as each other. In fact, Russia’s process is clearly better. Putin gets close to 100% of votes which just goes to prove he is a man of the highest calibre and integrity, loved universally by the masses and that all is well in the motherland. Meanwhile in the US it is chaos this afternoon as the dysfunctional western democratic electoral system morphs into a slow motion train wreck of division and anger.
I’ve bought a one-way ticket to Moscow, the home of the free and of the brave.
Its the yanks who have a ring of missiles on the borders of Russia aggressively pointing at Moscow.
It was the Russians who saved the free World during WW2.
Its the yanks who have military bases all around the planet and insist other nations do their trade in American currency to the benefit of America.
Its the yanks who put trade embargoes on nations that don't do as America tells them, Cuba, Vietnam, Iraq, Iran.....
Its America that assassinates foreign political leaders who don't toe the line or using proper-gander neutralizes them.
If anything the much maligned Russians keep American excesses in check.
To all the Trump fanboys posting here and hell there are a few of you, find some time today to look self critically as to why you still hold any regard for him either personally, financially or as a future POTUS. He has stiffed many who have become involved with his business interests. He takes pride in not paying any tax. He has declared bankruptcy several times and turned losing other peoples money into a legal art-form. He is a serial liar and a mysogynist with a preference for indecent assault. I used to think we would never see his like in politics here but I'm not so sure.
This sums up the cognitive dissonance better than I could ever write;
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/andrew-sullivan-trump-amer…
and Clinton is better because...??
America is going down the toilet, the world is swimming behind it. Clinton represents steady as she goes and Trump represents change in some form.
But either way, they will both soon arrive at the point where they will be forced to blame someone else for the decline of the American dream and up the ante to nab resources from elsewhere ...
https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-tr…
If you think there is some sort of moral equivalency between tHRC and Trump based on what they have said and done over the last 30 years, that says more about your lack of judgement than mine.
You said "change in some form" from Trump. Well, you will get change but none of it will be good. He is a climate change denier first and foremost so it will be full speed ahead for oil, and the coal industry. His isolationist policies will crash markets and trade internationally. China and Russia will aggressively push into the vacuum left by the US retreat into isolationism. That will not end well in Eastern Europe, the Russian bombing in Syria will likely intensify and who knows what will happen in our back yard in the Pacific. In the US those that voted for him will lose their jobs (if they had them) with the contraction of the US economy and with his proposed reduction of taxes for high income earners social inequality will get even worse. I could also go on about the prospect of rising racial tensions in the US, fewer restrictions on guns and what it might feel like to be a women in a Trump governed USA, but that might not seem so important to you.
You'll get change but be careful what you wish for.
Macadder - you seem to be under the delusion that there is some sort of moral judgement at stake. There isnt. A lot of those things you have listed will likely happen regardless of who wins - massive disruptive change is coming - prosperity can NOT be voted into office, cheap energy & resources can NOT be voted into office. The scrap for remaining cheap energy & resources will happen and is coming. There is no longer an abundance to be shared. Its a change no-one wants but its reality.
It is remarkable how otherwise apparently clever sane people are hypnotised by this groping liar.
Some sort of communal psychosis, a giving in to relentless repetition of the same old rubbish till it is normalised and accepted as blindingly obvious?
Just like a successful advertising campaign?
... yes ... Donald is a bit of a scally-wag , isn't he ...
For me , he makes me laugh ... he's the funniest thing on TV since Seinfeld went off the air ...
... whereas Hillary ... oh geez ... I just cringe at the sound of that fog-horn voice of hers ...a seriously unfunny person , that one ...
If Trump wins then the finance world will be in turmoil.
Sharemarket gains will be gooone for along time.
Was recently in the States and they thought Clinton would win, however many said they would head to NZ to live if Trump got in.
NZ is going to be the country of desire so forget a flat housing market it will remain more than steady.
We are spoilt here.
Let us not forget one thing: Trump exists because OBAMA failed in many of the Americans (and worlds) eyes.
His campaign was what? HOPE, CHANGE.....Post GFC not a single thing was fixed, changed or put in place to bring about any hope. He became the Goldman Sachs lacky sellout for many.
Trump is Obama's curse coming to haunt him. Trump has achieved one great thing already. He's put the self righteous US establishment into crapping themselves mode
Agree totally and I have been looked at angrily for saying these things in my circles. The myth of Obama's competency in governing has been encouraged for all these years for the world to believe in. He did a great disservice to America by unleashing Hillary on it, after his first election.
He was a Preacher, looking down on others, mainly the Congress and never learned to play with them. Waste of 8 years.
The hedgers, dumper pumpers, slumpers, shorters, longers, derivative driveler',s counters, discounters, poll-ogists, apologists, snafuoligists and clingon Clintons, had better play their cards right, cos if Trump, Trumps em, they may lose a packet, never mind the election. Even if they won today, betting on this election.
On the other hand, it is all a game of roulette, spin the wheel, spin the dice, spin the yarn, talk up the stakes, lucky we only bet on houses, here...
The USA only has one White House...and both parties, spent an awful, awe full, lot more than any size house you care to name in NZ...to get their foot....in the door.
After today, maybe, all bets are off.
I hope it was all worth it.....but at least the money was not real....QE aside.....but the consequences may be really real....for the poor rest of us.
And I think the consequences are dire, whichever way the cookies crumble.
(And they do not come more cookier than this).
I would not want either one as my Out-laws, (My in-laws are quite sufficient...Thanks)..
And finally......Must be the finest pair of no-hopers, money can buy, in America.
BRRRRRRRRRRRR. I shudder to...... Think....what comes next.
I hope tomorrow never comes...but if it does....we all wake up to find it was all a dream....not a bloody nightmare. But then again.....I may be wrong.
The story may have a Happy Ending.... it has taken our minds off flippin houses........just a little today.
I disagree. He's done a terrible job.
He was OK in his first term - steady - but since then he has simply failed to carry out the reform he promised in a number of areas such as housing/RMA.
Our economic success is to large extent a mirage, and we are becoming a more and more unequal society.
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
In the Red. Not in the pink. Someone is sh....hitting....themselves.
What is wrong with American politics when the two choices are Trump and Clinton. Surely they could have done better? This says far more about the USA and it's political system than the two individuals. Are we any better? Have politics and government become so cynical, polluted and corrupt that decent people don't want to stand and even if they did would they stand a chance of getting through the party selection systems?
Well put.
I dislike them both. I favour neither.
Also, I don't buy the 'Trump is anti-establishment' mantra. In many respects he is VERY establishment.
And he has the whole VERY ESTABLISHMENT Republican machine behind him.
And yes I tire of kiwis ridiculing the Americans and pretending we are so high and mighty. We are not.
The Americans are just a bit more 'out there' in their behaviour, so maybe seem a bit 'nuttier'.
Perhaps now the Euro hawks will hold off on that war with Russia they've been drooling for (and thought the US/Clinton would back them on).
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nato-ground-troops-high-…
Will be interesting to see if those troops are quietly "demobilised" following a Trump win.
After not commenting for a year since being ostracised in part for sharing Trump's views:
I do now declare the according to the New York Times Donald Trump has >95% chance of being President (which by the way is as high as it goes).
This is a lesson for the Liberal Elites, the Academics and Political Ruling Classes (such as Clark was, and Key and co. is): that you can't continue to oppress a democracy with changes that don't have the will of the people.
There will be a few people (who we all know) crying into their Chardonnays much as they did after the flag referendum loss!!
I'll add that Paddy Gower and the other members of the "lying Clinton media" who scoffed at Donald Trump just months ago (including a scouring Simon Dallow on One News early in the Primaries) should all be outed for the ignominious contempt they showed towards a legitimate candidate and a legitimate viewpoint.
Whatever happened to an impartial media, Mr Chaston included (your comments of 12 months ago are not forgotten sir).
Zachary,
I wonder if you will feel the same in a few years time. I think he is a truly appalling person,but I now have to hope that for all our sakes,that he can make a success of it. I don't believe that he can deliver on his promises,but you can say that of many who achieve high office.
He is likely to take an axe to environmental and climate change policies and that worries me. Time will tell.
Yeah... There is no such thing as impartial media....
This has been an amazing US election.... The media bias has stood out like dogs balls... more than ever.
For better or worse .... Trump will deliver the change that the promose of Obama, 8 yrs ago, cynically ( in my view) failed to deliver...
The cut of a presidents cloth, in my view, is shown by the administration they choose..... It will so very interesting to see who Trump chooses.... if he becomes President..!!!
ChrisJ... life is toooo short... Mr Chastons comments should be like water off a ducks back...
Hi Chris J. While I am no supporter of Trump, one thing that is clear to me is that the "Liberal Elites, the Academics and Political Ruling Classes" and their carefully cultivated sycophantic media, feel so entitled and secure with their position that they have lost their objective view of the world and the people that they "claim" to represent. They are suffering a bad case of self deception born of their unjustified sense of entitlement. That is why this result (and Brexit) comes as such a shock to them.
the fourth estate has been outed by the Donald for the shills they are. have a look at the comments just a couple of days ago on Paul Henrys morning show when John Key sniggered at the idea of Trump winning Don Brash called Trump a lair while Paul Henry was proclaiming Hillary would win easy...How stupid these people look today its just wonderful that normal everyday people have used Donald Trump as the middle finger of their right hand and said enough to the establishment, the elite, the warmongers and have figured out the media are no longer independent but bought and paid for...Well done the USA...
BigBlue - it's all overhyped.
Like Brexit there will be a temporary dip then stablisation.
So many NZ 'experts' have been opining of all sorts of of consequences - positive and negative - if Trump wins. It's bollocks. It will mean bugger all once the hype has subsided.
We've avoided World War 3 with Russia (which is where Obama/Clinton was heading).
America will be made Great Again! And China won't be left to manipulate itself into dominanting the World under the guise of globalisation.
Interest rates will rise, hopefully. House prices sink in Auckland. Leaving John Key naked at the beach and out potentially out of a job next year... With a bit of luck and a fair wind...
HA HA good points.
Actually, I think on balance I favour Trump...if only because I'm sick to death of kiwis (and poms are often the worst) looking down their noises at Trump, and Americans in general, as if we are some sort of superior moral species...oh yeah and it wouldn't be a bad thing to avoid WW3
Precisely. Clinton equaled war with Russia (with troops mobilised in anticipation of a Clinton win), whereas Trump likely equals entente cordiale with Russia, but probably eventual war with China.
For all the talk of NZ being a bolt-hole for the wealthy, I'm not sure how that works in the event of a sino-american war in the Pacific theatre. Time will tell.
Funny you should ask. China has village-level elections to decide on their Party representative and provide an appearance of choice. I have personal experience watching the process of seeing one of my wife's friend's distant relatives campaigning and it was a freak-show of open corruption and vote-buying with hard cash. Perhaps a bit like the rest of the world, really---just more blatant!
Yes Fritz, you hit the nail on the head with the word 'indoctrinated'.
But, if people WILL persist in obtaining their 'news' from the MSM, then the corporations, bankers and the MIC will continue their NWO plans with satisfied glee.
Can't remember when I last turned on the TV for news and even the sycophantic 'group think' on radio these days has diminished to about 10 minutes of headlines occasionally.
Thank goodness for the internet. You just have to learn where the REAL news is reported.
Stupid millennials shown crying and running for the 'safe areas' just like BREXIT.
And just listened to a load of PC garbage from a National Radio lady interviewing an American, interviewing him as if he should be totally aghast at a possible Trump victory. Despite him clearly being a Clinton supporter, he was very measured in his response to the hysteric nonsense she delivered.
Pathetic little nation at times...
I wish I had written down all the names of people who said the following
-Trump's not a serious candidate
-Trump will be out by October
-Trump will never win a single primary
-Trump has a ceiling of 25%
-Trump has a ceiling of 30%
-Trump has a ceiling of 35%
-Trump has a ceiling of 45%
-Trump will never win the south
-Trump can't win with evangelicals
-Trump will never be accepted by the party
-Trump will never be the nominee
-Trump will never win the general
-Trump can't really build a wall<~~ you are now here
I see 30,000...
https://elections16.usatoday.com/results/pennsylvania/president
45000 Hilary is toast
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
Just goes to show how large the group of disaffected people are. There's a growing ground swell of similar people here in 'gods own' who have been shafted by the system. I wonder if they'll rally for our election or if they will remain silently stewing for a bit longer.
No they don't.
It'a not a traditional 'left' / 'right' issue any more.
What is 'left' and 'right' now?
It is all a complex mish mash.
Look at the USA. Leftish liberals who always voted Democrats voted for Clinton. But a heck of a lot of blue collar traditional Democrat supporters voted for Trump.
I'd call myself left of centre, but I get very tired of so called 'Liberal Leftists' bemoaning Brexit, bemoaning Trump. The reasons these things are happening is because the elite are getting more powerful, and the downtrodden weaker, for Christ's sake!!!!
well, I think the NZ media is worse than anywhere, at least partly because of our small size.
The Herald has just become a trash rag, just total juvenile garbage.
the media in Aus, UK, USA may be far from great but at least they have a few decent dailies with serious journalism.
Interview with Key on TV3 before and they asked him about Trump. His response was diplomatic as expected.
But my interpretation was that he isn't worried about Trump (the man) being president, rather he seems worried about how he got there. I think this is the general feeling around the world.
Who would have guessed - immigration, housing, employment, and the economy matter to the average person.
This American woman from Auckland Uni provides an excellent commentary:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=117444…
Hi David ...Gareth....Bernard...and the team....You may recall a couple of years back I did a few rants about America returning to protectionists policy......well, well, well here we go then ...a few of the faithful here scorned my observations about a seriously disaffected ,disenfranchised middle America who had just had a gut full of imported this n that while their offspring would grow to be poorer than they had become.....under the free trade banner......well it seems I wasn't far off the mark after all ....of course I'd have preferred Bernie Sanders to this orang-utan but it's an imperfect world. Hope to be back soon as I'm still struggling to get well but I couldn't pass up a gloat now could I ? All my very best and still the best read in town. ...Stay Well
'a few of the faithful here scorned my observations about a seriously disaffected ,disenfranchised middle America who had just had a gut full of imported this n that while their offspring would grow to be poorer than they had become.....under the free trade banner......'
Replace 'America' with 'NZ' and that is us
Very surprising result really, but we all knew that U.S. was not the greatest country in the world.
NZ is right up there bar none.
Seriously, Hillary was not a great choice and every American I spoke to a couple of months ago agreed.
What near 70 year old, never had a female President before, has honesty issues, married to Bill and supported by Obama who most Americans thought had done a crap job.
Don't think Trump won it rather than the opposition had too many negatives going!
NZ is going g to become more popular for overseas people!
No he's an idiot and a crook, who took the base line - people want change. Sadly that's all they'll get! Under Trump the poor will get poorer and that's all the get! For god sake the first thing he will do is revoke Obarma's health care for the poor - what idiots! It's unbelievably sad!
Yes but you have to admire the crook in him too since he managed to avoid paying income tax for may years! God bless America. Just wait until he introduces 'The Purge' - fiction can so easily turn in to fact.
https://trailers.apple.com/trailers/universal/thepurge/
On the same website -Their was a quote
The polls are just being used as another tool of voter suppression. The polls are an attempt to not reflect public opinion, but to shape it. Yours. They want to depress the heck out of you - R Limbaugh.
How correct.
National Bosses - Be aware. Still time work for the people of NZ and not for elite few and foreigners. Feel the under current and act.
If you have no choice, maybe a haircut would solve the situation. Maybe not.
America is technically bankrupt, so Trump is the perfect foil for President..
Some people are taking one hell of a gamble.. Maybe he will go after Goldmunny Sucks and all the other 1% to spread the risk of default.
To big to Fail.....we shall see.?
Many experts on this and other website and social media may feel that comments are by people who have nothing to do but should now remeber that comments are reflection of the mood of the nation.
Going by comments of readers - definetly will be change of government in NZ and by humilating margins as arroganance and ego is too strong for national to see and feel the pulse of the country.
Why do people say Americans will take their money out and head for where? NZ? Why would they come here when Trump wants to rebuild America, bring factories back, renegotiate trade deals, deregulate small business. This is the turning point for globalism. JK will have to start doing something for his own people instead of his rich foreign mates, the party is coming to an end.
Yes this result on the heels of Brexit, there is undoubtedly an undercurrent of disconnect with everyday citizens. Globalisation has gone too far for many and this is the people taking back control from the multinationals and political elite who are in their pocket. Trump is a vulgar individual but Clinton is corrupt and arrogant and ultimately represented more of the same. Its a pity Bernie Sanders wasn't the standard bearer for the discontented.
It will be interesting to see how much of this spills over to NZ. I can only see the immigration debate and its effects on existing citizens re house prices and wage rates becoming a much bigger issue. Winston would appears to be best placed to pick up that sentiment.
Correct tim12 .....government willing to work for their own country rather than corporate interest...And also rather than speculators and non residents.
At least now should not manipulate with defiantion of non resident buyer data and test the patience of the people's intelligence.
May laugh/smirk now but the final laugh will be by the people. Wait n Watch.
Well there goes the climate change industry. The champagne must be tasting a little flat in Marrakesh right now - the beauty and wellness spas will be working overtime.
"More than 10,000 people are flying to Marrakesh for a UN climate change conference despite officials admitting that they will make little or no progress on key issues.
The two-week meeting, which begins in the Moroccan city on Monday, was declared as the “conference of action”, where 195 countries were supposed to reveal how they will fulfil pledges made a year ago to cut their emissions. Instead, they are likely to agree to suspend talks until 2018.
Previous conferences have produced communiqués with grand titles named after their location, including last year’s Paris Agreement. A UK government source said: “Will there be a Marrakesh Something? There will have to be a decision that basically says we agree to reconvene with a date.”
However, delegates will be able to stay busy thanks to a Michelin guide to the conference supplied by the UN. It lists top hotels, “beauty and wellness spas”, as well as the best beaches."
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10-000-fly-in-for-doomed-climate-talks-5ks37…
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