Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research
During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%).
If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5%, Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was 0% (unchanged).
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%).
Of parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (down 0.5%).
The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July with 57.5% (up 3%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a huge gain in support for the Key Government in July – up 10% to 53%. This is the highest support for National in over a year – since May 2015. National has gained support from across the political spectrum with Labour falling 2.5% to 25.5%, The Greens falling 3% to 11.5%, NZ First down 2% to 9% and also governing partners the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5% - their lowest level of support all year.
“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July. The large jump in support comes immediately after Prime Minister John Key announced a $1 billion housing infrastructure reserve in early July.
The infrastructure reserve will fund the construction of tens of thousands of new homes in high growth centres including Auckland, Christchurch, Queenstown and Tauranga. The funding will provide interest free loans to councils to help build new roads and other infrastructure needed to support new housing in these important growth centres.
“Housing affordability and the shortage of housing is one of the key issues mentioned by New Zealanders when asked about the most important problems facing New Zealand (mentioned by 9% of New Zealanders in April 2016) as shown by the last ‘Most Important Problems facing New Zealand’ release available here.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in July 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.
118 Comments
it would be interesting to hear from spark as to the makeup of their landline customer base, I suspect it would be over a certain age mostly BB, I know a lot of middle age people that only keep the land line because of grandparents whereas the younger ones if you want to get hold of them its mobile or social media apps
It's one of those things that is skewing to old people, like watching broadcast TV. Do shared flats still bother with landlines? I've no idea.
I'm skeptical that anybody is really so impressed with this lame housing scheme that it would have a 10% effect. It's too big a percentage to be credible. 2 to 3% sure, that could be real, but 10% doesn't ring true unless there's been something that distorted the results.
Dead right, me too. I reckon the landline will disappear with my generation, and I recommend to people finding ways to save a bit of money here and there to go naked broadband and ditch the landline. They almost all say they only keep them because of aged parents.
Rowlocks....Up the creek without a paddle, nor a leg to stand on.
Political clap trap. Just as expected. All a dime a dozen. Drop the dollar at all costs...40% large deposit..building is such sweet sorrow. Don't sweat it...borrow it. Bull market...here we come. Make yer pile over here...we will clean up after you.
Farmers crying in their milk,, Awklanders and others betting on on a House of Cards,. Chinese whispers of an iron age, Steal yerself with our steel...or we will do it for you.
Free Trade, fair deal, everything is May be. May be this, May be that.
Boris is Diplomat of the year. Trump is the wild card.. Turkey is in the oven, Teachers are cooking the books, so fire the lot of em...Coup de tat. All heat, no substance.
ISIS all as is.
50 Nukes and a playground for the Powers that be.......Tourists copping out...With no opposition.
Life's a beach.
And ...this is just the first of many...Home sweat home.
Ngapara Lifestyle - Mortgagee Sale ...of the rich and infamous. Get in whilst ye still can, plenty of potential...here...Ideal rental, ideal do up. Bank on this. Have I got a deal for you.
http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction…
Yeah...National are up with the play.. All is well with the World.
No debt, no problems, no sweat...no Labour...Trust me...It will all work out right in the end.
I have the key. To Pandora's Box.
John...
Oh and do not forget to vote for me...I am the Sub Prime...administrator.
I believe these numbers. I have gone from an Act/NZ First voter to a National supporter fairly recently. I think it happened after reading the endless anti John Key comments here. Most are barely understandable, poorly spelled and with shocking grammar. They don't know the difference between lose and loose or border and boarder. They repeatedly call for JKexit while we all know we have elections where we can decide to do this every three years which is actually rather too often.
Most anti-National types couldn't care less about the poor and homeless and are driven by envy. They would be happy to see recent FHB's thrown under the bus and would even lose significant amounts of their own capital just to see landlords bankrupted. Classic 'cutting off the nose to spite the face' stuff.
I suppose I am saying that I haven't seen any opposition to National that I am attracted to. I believe Labour/Green would be far worse regarding immigration than National. National are playing a careful game of chess in the international arena and not doing too badly considering the circumstances.
So I can give you some that you might consider and no doubt many others could make a longer list - Saudi Sheep Deal, 2013 Asset Sales, Warner Bros, Tiwai Point, the down grading of Kiwi Rail, Sky City convention Centre. Your claim that you were as Act/NZFirst supporter is like saying I loved chalk and cheese. Don't believe you.
He is too late Zac. Someone is going to hurt somewhere sometime. John Key in trying to please everybody, including the chinese donaters to National has left this monster to fuel up further. He put the eggs in one or two baskets. Revving up dairy. Fail. Revving up immigration. Fail. He went whole hog. I was in Te Papa recently, they have a wall graph on immigration over the last century. This last few years throws all the influx of the 50s 70s and earlier to shame. This is numbers like we have never known. So where is the plan to put these people? To house and school them? To keep them healthy? None. Just jam em in. Best you can. Same as cows. Just jam em in best you can. Who gives a root about the poo n pee. For both
Sorry, my bad. It's just when someone leaves a comment which discredits the opinions of others on the site, while at the same time subtlety endorsing one political party... When that happens again and again you have to question the authenticity of that person. Who are they? What do they represent and why are they leaving comments. I'm not naming names. I'm just saying. :)
Its the corporate nature, playing to shareholders bit I can't stand - dependant on which shareholders he is faced with. The U turns, the I don't remembers, the three terms, the ponytails.
We shouldn't allow any PM more than three terms. It's been proven time and time again they wain in effectiveness in prolonged limelight.
Common people, don't put Zac down because of his honesty in expressing his opinion. I'm not defending his opinion, but his right to express it. Understand his perspective. He has in the past admitted to being a property investor so from that perspective National have to be the best party to represent his interests based on their actions.
what interests me is this comment;"Most anti-National types couldn't care less about the poor and homeless and are driven by envy. They would be happy to see recent FHB's thrown under the bus..." which I suggest is contradictory, because as a LL he will be (and has admitted to)charging market rents, rather than affordable rents which suggests he doesn't care either, and FHBs (I assume he is talking Foreign buyers, because they are actually helping him make more gain) which are part of the problem. So at the end of the day he is demonstrating that self interest is his motivator rather than the over all health of the nation.
I wonder how much of this poll bump relates to the spreading "wealth effect" of increased capital gain around the regions. The ODT ran an editorial a week or so back about the "vibrancy"returning to Dunedin. The property market now bolstered by escaping Aucklanders and investors seeking yield. Of course this is mainly illusionary wealth, wages and product prices are still structurally low,but it may be starting to dope the regions up with a false sense of contentment with the status quo.
So at the end of the day he is demonstrating that self interest is his motivator rather than the over all health of the nation.
murray...
After 40 yrs of having an interest in economics/sociology/history/psychology .... I'd say that the underlying first principle is that our essential nature is one of..."self interest".... AND... then from there , things radiate outwards to the different levels.... family...community...society...
"Everyone acting and being true to themselves".... Politicians...Multi Nationals.... Local Bodies... Socialist...libertarian...
With this as a "first principle"... its not hard to see the possible/probable unintended outcomes of any rules...policies... etc...
Because we live in a western democratic country.... we tend to take "individual freedoms" for granted...
Its a very grey area ... that fine line between the individual vs the community.... If the balance swings to much one way things get distorted ..
Someone posted a link about rent controls in Sweden..and the unintended outcome being 13 yr waiting lists..
My guess is that the Bureaucrats took great pride in introducing those rent controls....AND... couldn't care less about the waiting lists..... not their problem....
I've noticed that unintended outcomes are never the problem of the people who cause them.... They simply take credit for the "initial good deed ".
Do you sometimes wonder what The Auckland City Councils definition of affordable housing is..???
I agree, and thanks for the post, as you have included some information re rent controls that I'd like to follow up on. Yes self interest will always be a primary driver, and if uncontrolled will end up creating dangerous distortions. Putting society first above all is also problematic, as the interests of the individuals must also be weighed up, and who makes that call? As we have seen time and time again, politicians despite their platitudes are primarily driven by self interest. and this takes me to an issue I have with Zac's comments.
Based on all their past performances in this country, I would be strongly against longer parliamentary terms, and i also believe that there needs to be in law some way in which to toss a significantly unpopular Government, for example one which completely ignores it's elections promises or proves to be corrupt, before the parliamentary term is up. I believe in a true Democracy any popularly elected Government MUST remain fully accountable to the public at all times rather than just once every three years.
Good comments Roelof and murray86
Roelof things radiate outwards to the different levels.... family...community...society...
We now have multi-culturalism to contend with which may be exacerbating the issues that rampant individualism has brought about. The above levels have become more complex and the concept of class may be making a return too where different cultures are glued together by socio-economic factors. Certainly I think multi-culturalism is bringing about some interesting dynamics. I can see Auckland sort of Balkanizing or cultural alliances being unofficially established. Already we see the demographics of suburbs changing markedly.
Roelof - just been reviewing Maslow's hierarchy of needs and for some reason he's missed off the basic need for 5 rental properties, a bach at the Coromandel, negative gearing, and tax free capital gains. Bit of a rookies mistake really as we all know just how important these factors are to achieving self-actualisation in NZ society...
What an idiot!
No I'm not... which doesn't mean its' not so..
I think most people are reasonable.... and that , mostly , people do have a "giving" "helpful" disposition.. ( I'm talking about individuals ....not Institutions or "societies" or Govts..etc )
I recall seeing in the news a private beach in Abel Tasman being bought , thru crowdfunding, and given to "New Zealand"... I thought that was pretty amazing...
What do you think..?? and Why..??
If we were so helpful and giving, why would we try and outbid each other at an auction? Would appear very counter intuitive for giving and helpful people...
Why would we outbid FHB when we already own our own home and 3 rental properties? How is this helpful and giving?
Why would we vote for National when they deny there is a housing crisis? How is this helpful and giving? Especially when 'most people are reasonable' and yet most people are voting for them?
Why would we systematically allow our government sell out the country to foreigner buyers and yet at the same time foster feelings of 'togetherness' to buy the beach in Abel Tasman National Park?
Are we two faced?
Not two faced - human. The government doesn't sell out the country to foreign buyers - ordinary kiwis do.
I have heard recently of two separate situations where an offer was put on a property by FHBs to an older couple downsizing, and a higher offer was put in by a developer. The couple(s) preferred it to go to a family and in both cases the lower FHB offer was accepted. Some prefer to sell to the highest bidder/offer - but that is their right.
There are helpful developers too http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/73311757/southern-good-…
"Most anti-National types couldn't care less about the poor and homeless and are driven by envy."
That is as populist a comment as I have ever heard one to be!
Zackary is not only being contradictory, Murray, he's being a hypocrite. He has learned his trade well from DK!
Disagree Zak. Most people care about NZ and the fact that a future generation is taking on huge debt they may never repay. Not sure how you draw a linkage to envy. Most of your posts appear an attempt to cause trolling so if that is what you are looking for it is working.
Hi Zachary,
people in glass houses........... FHBs is plural, not possessive. Do you have any evidence to support your contention that "most anti-National types couldn't care less about the poor and homeless and are driven by envy"? I must include myself as one of them, so can you tell me of whom i am supposed to be envious?
It is hard to follow your reasoning. You say that you have changed your political allegiance, just because of anti JK comments. I thought support of a political party might involve principles, but perhaps I am simply naive.
This is just one billion, of many multiple billions that are required to build infrastructure for the 160,000 migrants over the last 3 years. The NZ tax payer will front these multiple billions and suffer an erosion of living standards. The costs are going to be spread far and wide from road tolls to topping up schoolteacher and police wages so they can afford to live in Auckland.
One example of immediate population growth costs is the billion $ pipeline being built to collect sewerage from West Auckland.
If the voters liked the government putting up a billion, they will just love the true cost of our immigration policies. looks like where stuck with National.
Well put Northland Hippy, the tributaries will foot the bill!
And don't forget the 120 Ministers of Parlament, delegations of diplomats overseas, judiciaries and public defendants (to prosecute Maori and pot-smokers for their heinous crime of of simply being!), lavish subsidies for Big Pharma, (...shall I go on?), all of which are permanently attached to the collective governmental teat!
And lest we not forget about our hapless ass.
the link is there, the biggest concern is the growing wealth gap, so that throws zac's theory out the window.
and what surprised me was a strong showing for green issues.
then people vote for parties that are against their concerns, very strange?
it reminds of muldoons reds under the beds campaign people were voting on an irrational fear even though they did not like what he was doing which ironically was more soviet like than the oppositions at the time.
wage controls, import and export controls, manufacturing controls. The state said what you could or could not do
what surprised me was a strong showing for green issues.
Could this not be similar to those who profess to care about using healthy/organic/fair trade/locally produced etc food and then walk in to the supermarket and buy the cheapest they can? People love the 'concept' but when the time comes to pay for it, they change their minds.
Is it an independent survey without any bias.
Time will tell but seing national attitue and policy have serious doubts as I have been voting for national but now will vote for anyone but National unless maybe if their is a change in lleadership.
Survey should be done by asking just one question and see the response. May be an online survey.
#jkexit
It would take quite a significant property price drop of -20 to -60% for FTB's to be able to realistically afford a home in the more expensive cities like Auckland. I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening that soon, as we still have the very wealthy non-resident investors to contend with.
While I don't think the Government is doing a great job the Opposition is doing far worse. The problem for Labour is that they are so divorced from their traditional base that they appear deeply inauthentic when they make a gesture to working people.They are becoming the Liberals of the 19th century - speaking on behalf of the working class but not of the working class.
At the last election National cut 15 of MPs - and that's from a winning team! Labour on the other hand cut just 2 MPs. Labour still has the same MPs from their last Government even though they desperately need to have a massive cull. Labour still blames the public for not understanding their policies. Labour is not ready to win the next election let alone be the Government.
I have been a long time supporter of Labour but for the first time in my life I have no idea who I will vote for. Recently, there has been stories about WINZ sending vulnerable people to slumlords in Manurewa - yet I have not heard anything from the Labour MP there. Ms Wall, whose proudest moment was passing the "same-sex" Marriage Act, is strangely silent. It appears symptomatic of Labour that if it isn't a LBGT issue then there is no concern.
The poll above may not be 100% accurate but I think it is clear that Labour and the Greens represent a dying sector of society and for Labour a few people who don't know who else to vote for.
Labour has had just too many leadership changes and they have all been useless. Believe it or not I used to vote for Helen Clarke, she was leadership material if nothing else and its still recognised with a run at the UN. Labour have gone to the dogs since then, simply no credibility. When David Little opens his mouth its all opposition and no alternative option and it makes you cringe.
The following figures explain to me why National is following a populist path, and is largely popular:
There are roughly 1,550,000 houses in New Zealand, with a median value of ~$500k. That gives a total capital value of ~$775 billion in the paper value of housing. If that had increased by 10% in a year then there is an increase in wealth of ~$75 billion in a year, less the increase in total household financial liabilities of $16 billion in a year, so in net terms an extra $60 billion in paper wealth.
So despite their talk, and occasional murmurings of doing something, the Nats don't really want the party to stop. Nor do most punters, even if as the ANZ CEO notes, it will stop at some stage. Keep pumping 50,000 migrants a year at the model though and it will take some time. Blame the Councils and the RBNZ for the side effects. All good.
Separately Labour joining up with the Greens happened about the same time. Very dumb on the part of Labour.
have a look at the council i think you will find at best its 50/50, the mayor may be a knob but he is only one vote
http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/AboutCouncil/representativesbodie…
The mayor has budgetary control and appoints committee chairs.
With that sex thing he had, if the council was 50:50 then a vote of confidence in the mayor would have occurred.
It is a leftie council, doing leftie policy - Auckland people are becoming homeless. Does anyone want that level of competence running the country?
its not a leftie council but they do vote left which is a worry, maybe a new right leaning mayor could bring them back into line.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11632290
I'm old enough to think of this council as Muldoonist, old school socialism for the rich - high taxation and higher asset inflation. Keep the middle class happy while robbing them blind, feather the nests of the rich and screw the poor.
Unfortunately our left have taken to thinking that they were betrayed by the Labour in 1984 and that life prior to that was much better.
Either this is an exquisitely stupid country or we are going to require international observers and inked fingers at the next election.
It's almost comforting to assume a Grand Conspiracy of manipulated polling. In reality, the polling probably reflects the famous Kiwi naivete. Our leaders are morons and so are we. Kiwis are but simple lemmings running cheerily headlong towards the fiscal cliff. Again.
We're rich! Huzzah!
I have come to realise that most commenters on this site are way out of touch with the average NZ citizen. It brings a tear of joy to my eye that only a small portion of the population (Mostly lurking around the comments section here) are whingers, losers and Labour/Green supports. The rest are winners. National winners!
Putting aside the unnecessary boorishness of that comment, it does speak to a wider point. Comments on This site had been until the ,last couple of months ,primarily around economic issues. These matters were more and more being linked to political inaction.
The MSM have also started to rouse themselves to hold the govt to account as well as a broad cross section of business people, even the RBNZ. At the same time the opposition has made some significant policy announcements and declared transparent allgences. In short it felt like a tipping point was being reached. If this poll is to be believed the tipping point has fallen heavily in favour of self interest and screw the long term consequences.
When you look at labour with housing/education, greens CC, pollution, poverty,NZ first, immigration, regional neglect, they are all attempting to address significant structural issues. But they lose out to govt that is fiddling and tweaking and kicking the can down the road. It is hard after 8 years to point to anything significant or structural they have done. It looks like the politics of cynical populism is the only path to victory.
that is the most fustrating thing about our current adminstration, the lack of action in economic matters and the sit back and wait to see what happens approach to everything
i could not see many businesses survive with that approach and personally would not invest in any with that type of leadership, i want to see a plan and goals my favorite was mainfreights they published ten years ago which they tick off as they make each target and they also change as they go along to move further up to the end goal.
thats the type of leadership we need to run our country and sadly i dont see it in any of the main parties
Yes well said. And i think structurally we are in such a hole now that it matters little who comes to power, we are facing a trainwreck. At the guts of it is income problems, which is a global problem. We can no longer afford our present, and we are fast running out of options in borrowing from the future.
When you look at labour with housing/education, greens CC, pollution, poverty,NZ first, immigration, regional neglect, they are all attempting to address significant structural issues.
In opposition they have got all these magnificent plans. But when the Labour/Greens do get into to power, like they have in Auckland, we get screwed by them as well. It is all very well having a vision on housing whilst in opposition, why can't they get their Mayor of Auckland to do any of it?
Your comment makes no sense. Labour/Green policies appeal to the uneducated or lesser educated amongst us (Economics,history,English, arts students, etc)
Natonal kept our country strong during and after the GFC. To suggest otherwise exposes your bias and deep hatred of successful people. Sad really.
Littles big dreams are over , Wipeters First party getting old so wont have the stamina with all those packets of fags,Greens all over the place trying to pretend they know everything,a sep Maori party has never worked in NZ, avge Kiwi havent a clue what ACTs act is about ,PD is the most consistent polling at 0%.
Not hard to see why Nats prosper
David Farrar thinks Roy Morgan polls produce exaggerated swings but still believes National support has increased on last month. He has a brilliant track record of correctly calling voting trends. Self interested wealth effect is no doubt playing a part but the vision of Andy Little cosying up to president Trump on the golf course or sharing witty repartee with president Xi Jinping at dinner, kinda doesn’t work for a lot of people.
National Party PR at work. Nothing more. Trying to force change the perception, which may change but not by PR exercise but by taking action as Housing is an important issue to all kiwi.
Will they win or not should be based on their policy and performance. No Doubt that many rich will support them for their self benefit and similar thinking as national does represent rich in NZ and also will get support of most non ressident but one has to remember that non resident do not vote.
As mentioned earlier in this website through many comments that JK has succeeded in dividing NZ and the result of which may be very dangerous in future.
Legacy of JK for NZ.
For those that say this government hasn't achieved much take a look at this
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand
Also consider the billions we gained from asset sales! Fantastic outcomes. - no wonder they're polling so high, we're all rich!
Interest.co - run your own poll here of Nats vs Labour or other options. There seems to be anti National sentiment developing with business people and those who have previously voted National. In Auckland the Chinafication of the city is really concerning people and the govt seem to be pandering to the Chinese big time.
I'm pretty sure National and the backers are in the delusion/denial phase of a bubble
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Stages_of_a_bubble…
Well its rogue poll, rouge media etc etc.
We are surrounded continuously and bombarded with JK support comments all the way and all the year round, even during election time. The radio the TV and other media all infested with JK mates (dont want to name them) who have been doing this, who really are required to be non biased.
So all polls and public sayings will be biased. Don't you believe?
Are you sure about that?
View Graphic evidence - government debt has only increased under National's occupation of the treasury benches in parliament.
Dairying never made this money. It was all borrowed to produce. Debt and more debt. To build cowsheds effluent ponds and races and farm housing and irrigation. To buy feed. To buy the land. Overcapitalised farmland now. Will it ever pay off. Literally. Who knows. But the rbnz seems to be packing itself.
Clarke and Key have both sat at the helm as a ponzi in land built. But Key is doubly guilty as he SAW what happened in 07 08, and he English and Joyce let this fly.
Ive thought for a long time that Helen Clark and Robert Muldoon were the greatest prime ministers that nz has ever had, but I guess it depends on your assessment criteria. In my opinion JK has damaged the fabric of NZ society more that any pm in nz's history making him the worst PM in NZ's history.
Piffle. Clarke started this property problem with her massive transference of tax payer funds to property speculators in accomodation supplements and working for families. Muldoon?? Before my time, although rent controls while at varsity worked well for me. What a mess he left the country in. Key guilty of seeing the obvious in property speculation and twiddling his thumbs. Yet on the other hand he and cronies threw out democracy in Canterbury to push the dairy conversions. We have been badly served for a good while.
You could extrapolate the crisis back to Clark's governmen but that would be totally disingenuous. The crisis is characterised by collapsing home ownership rates, hyperinflation in house prices, stagnating incomes, overcrowded third world living condition's in Auckland, foreign buyer Vultures. All recent phenomena. Clark's government wouldn't have sat by on the sidelines watching thst happen. As for Muldoon, he was an intelligent man who possessed good will, and who presided over difficult times. I suggest you read "His Way", Muldoon's biography
Another wealth transfer mechanism funded by the taxpayer for our wealthy foreign benefactors, since the investment in productive economic outcomes are hardly reflected by the perpetual need for the RBNZ to cut the overnight cash rate, which further embellishes the capitalisation today of interest coupon debt flows yet to be paid.
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