Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research
Prime Minister John Key has led National back into Government at an election which saw National capture 48.06% of the vote – its highest share under the MMP voting system and the highest since the 1951 New Zealand election at which it captured a record 53.99% of the vote.
Labour (24.69%) has also slumped below a quarter of the vote and recorded its lowest share of the vote for over 90 years – since 1922 (23.70%). NZ First (8.85%) recorded its highest share of the vote in over a decade – since the 2002 New Zealand Election.
The Pollsters
The New Zealand-Herald Digipoll was the most accurate pollster at this year’s NZ Election while the Roy Morgan Poll was the equal second most accurate.
The Roy Morgan Poll coveried the two weeks September 1-14 – before the revelations provided by Internet-Mana Party Leader Kim Dotcom that the New Zealand Government spied on its 'citizens'.
The election results show the revelations did not increase support for the Internet-Mana Party or Greens but resulted in a 'backlash' which increased support for National.
All pollsters over-estimated the Greens share of the vote by between 1.08% (Herald Digipoll) and a large 4.38% (3 News).
The Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.48%.
In contrast, all pollsters under-estimated the NZ First share of the vote – the closest being the Herald Digipoll (0.45%), the Roy Morgan Poll (0.85%) and ONE News Colmar Brunton (0.85%).
Fairfax Media-Ipsos underestimated NZ First by 2.25%.
NEW ZEALAND VOTING INTENTION – Primary Vote Predictions
| National election, Sept 20, 2014 | Sept 1-14 | Sept 9-15 | Sept 13-17 | Sept 11-17 | Sept 13-17 | |||||||||||
| Telephone | Telephone | Telephone | Telephone | Telephone | ||||||||||||
|
NZ Roy Morgan |
3 News – Reid Research |
ONE News Colmar Brunton |
Herald Digipoll |
Fairfax Media- Ipsos |
||||||||||||
|
Actual Result |
% | error | % | error | % | error | % | error | % | error | ||||||
| Sample Size | (935) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (775) | (1,000) | |||||||||||
|
National |
48.06 |
46.5 |
-1.56 |
44.5 |
-3.56 |
45.0 |
-3.06 |
48.2 |
+0.14 |
47.7 |
-0.36 |
|||||
|
Labour |
24.69 |
24.0 |
-0.69 |
25.6 |
+0.91 |
25.0 |
+0.31 |
25.9 |
+1.21 |
26.1 |
+1.41 |
|||||
|
Greens |
10.02 |
13.5 |
+3.48 |
14.4 |
+4.38 |
12.0 |
+1.98 |
11.1 |
+1.08 |
12.0 |
+1.98 |
|||||
|
NZ First |
8.85 |
8.0 |
-0.85 |
7.1 |
-1.75 |
8.0 |
-0.85 |
8.4 |
-0.45 |
6.6 |
-2.25 |
|||||
|
Maori Party |
1.29 |
1.5 |
+0.21 |
1.1 |
-0.19 |
1.6 |
+0.31 |
1.1 |
-0.19 |
0.9 |
-0.39 |
|||||
|
ACT NZ |
0.69 |
0.5 |
-0.19 |
0.1 |
-0.59 |
0.6 |
-0.09 |
0.5 |
-0.19 |
0.3 |
-0.96 |
|||||
|
United Future |
0.22 |
0.5 |
+0.28 |
0.1 |
-0.12 |
0.0 |
-0.22 |
0.2 |
-0.02 |
0.0 |
-0.69 |
|||||
|
Internet-MANA Party |
1.26 |
1.0 |
-0.26 |
2.0 |
+0.74 |
1.8 |
+0.54 |
1.0 |
-0.26 |
0.9 |
+0.68 |
|||||
|
Conservative |
4.12 |
3.5 |
-0.62 |
4.9 |
+0.78 |
4.4 |
+0.28 |
3.3 |
-0.82 |
4.5 |
+0.38 |
|||||
|
Ind./ Other |
0.8 |
1.0 |
+0.20 |
0.2 |
-0.60 |
1.6 |
+0.80 |
0.3 |
-0.50 |
1.0 |
+0.20 |
|||||
|
Nat/Act/Maori/United |
50.26 |
49.0 |
-1.26 |
45.8 |
-4.46 |
47.2 |
-3.06 |
50.0 |
-0.26 |
48.9 |
-1.36 |
|||||
|
Average error on all parties |
0.8 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
|
0.5 |
0.9 |
||||||||||
|
Average error on major parties (5% threshold)* |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
|
0.7 |
1.5 |
||||||||||
*To claim List Seats in the NZ Parliament a political party must attain at least 5% of the Party Vote nation-wide. At the 2014 New Zealand Election this was achieved by National (48.06%), Labour (24.69%), Greens (10.02%) and New Zealand First (8.85%).
4 Comments
After years of being taxed to death by Labour over the past generation , ordinary tax - paying Kiwis have have roundly rejected the FIVE NEW TAXES that the left proposed .
Taxes , old and new , are always paid in the end by the consumer , thats you and me
Ordinary folk like my wife and I who get up and go to work each day know that the burden of 5 new taxes will fall on those of us who aleady pay tax , earn a wage , eat food , buy fuel , run a car , pay rent or a mortgage , use power and clothe a family .
To suggest new taxes will be paid by "business" , or the farmer , or the carbon producer , or the "rich" is delusional when we know its simply passed on to the consumer, or if possible , avoided completely by all the above
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