By Bernard Hickey
With 1 day to go until the election, here's my final pre-election round-up of political news, including a final poll of polls showing National could just squeak back in with its current support partners, but is more likely to need the support of either New Zealand First or Conservative to secure a third term.
A simple average of the last five main opinion polls (NZ Herald Digipoll, 3 News Reid Research, TVNZ Colmar Brunton, Stuff Ipsos and Roy Morgan) before the election shows National on 46.4%, Labour on 25.3%, Green on 12.6% and New Zealand First on 7.6%.
Conservative is on 4.1% and would fail to get over the 5% threshold, while Internet Mana is on 1.3% and may get in if Hone Harawira wins Te Tai Tokerau.
Somewhat strangely, this is an almost identical left-right split to the 2011 election result , where National won 47%, Labour won 27%, Green won 11% and New Zealand First won 7%.
Assuming ACT, United Future and Maori each win one seat, National could again (just) govern alone, although it would come down to the fractions of percentage in National's party vote percentage. Any 'bonus' seats for ACT or Maori would make it easier and the possibility of Colin Craig's Conservatives getting over the 5% threshold would make a third term for National a certainty.
Any slippage in National's vote below 45%, any rise in the Labour-Green vote over 40%, a failure of Conservative to get over 5% and a rise over 8% for New Zealand First would see Winston Peters clearly in a position to demand significant concessions from National for his support.
Internet Mana fades
The feature of the last week of the campaign was the failure of Internet-Mana to kick on from a strong start last month. The 'Dotcom bomb' on Monday night sucked any remaining momentum out of Internet-Mana's campaign and reinforced the reservations many of its supporters have had about Kim Dotcom's involvement.
Hone Harawira's own position as the springboard for Internet-Mana into Parliament is also in doubt. Maori TV reported last night that Maori Party leader Te Ururoa Flavell had pushed (unsuccessfully) for the last minute withdrawal of his candidate to encourage Maori Party supporters to vote strategically for Kelvin Davis to deny Harawira the seat. National has also encouraged its supporters in Te Tai Tokerau to vote for Labour to deny Harawira the springboard.
Harawira's fate and the final party vote for Internet-Mana will be one of the great sub-plots to follow on Saturday night, along with whether Colin Craig makes it into Parliament.
Craig's campaign hit a bizarre speed bump yesterday when his media spokeswoman Rachel MacGregor told NewstalkZB's Barry Soper that she had resigned and that Craig was a "manipulative man."
Craig was informed of the decision by other media and said he had no idea why she had resigned. He said he hoped she would return.
RMA and Employment law reforms?
Craig's fate is important for those watching National's plans for RMA and Employment law reforms, which were stalled this year by opposition from Peter Dunne and Maori. Craig has spoken out in favour of RMA reform and is no friend of the unions. His election and support for National would make those reforms more likely.
Winston Peters remains the most likely 'Kingmaker' though. He has been the main beneficiary from the 'static' of 'Dirty Politics' and GSCB that has obscured debate about the economy.
No one has any clear idea of what concessions he would demand of John Key for any supply and confidence deal. Guyon Espiner's attempts on Thursday morning to wring some sort of detail out of Peters ended in a car crash of an interview. It's worth listening to for a reminder of how cantankerous he can be. It was a type of action replay of his relations with the media around the Owen Glenn affair of 2008 that wrecked his last year in Government.
Foreign ownership register?
If Peters was interested in extracting policy concessions and he could be judged by his campaign rhetoric (which is a big if), then his first cab off the rank would be a foreign ownership register and some sort of tightening of the Overseas Investment Act.
Key has left the door ajar to at least a register and the potential for tighter rules on foreign ownership.
Those watching foreign investment should also remember Colin Craig's first big splash on the election campaign was his call for the sale of Lochinver Station to Shanghai Pengxin to be blocked.
One more factor to watch is the turnout. Weather forecasts suggest a wet election day.
See all my previous election diaries here.
See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.
45 Comments
... if the Jolly Kid made one mistake in this election that could scupper his chances , it is that he didn't throw Colin & the Conservatives a lifeline , and that he didn't rule out working with Winsome & NZ First ...
He shoulda told the electorate that a vote for Winnie is a vote for Labour .... given that Peters is unable to tell anyone the truth ...
... have a listen to yesterday's remarkable interview on Radio National with Guyon Espiner , and tell me if you still give Winnie the benefit of any credibility .... let alone personal manners ...
Back in January I was saying Winston holding the balance of power, with the conservatives most likely under 5%, even under 4%. I would change that to Conservatives most likely 4.4-4.5% kind of area, having benefited about 0.5% from the Dirty Politics book.
Back in April/May I was prepared to say it was about 90% likely that who leads the country would be decided by Winston. I'm still pretty comfortable with that prediciton.
Bernard, this is the biggest news in politics today;
Ombudsman 'appalled' by ex-Customs lawyer's OIA allegations
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11327328
She said a planned inquiry to be launched after the election could see the Ombudsman's office using its Commission of Inquiry powers to compel evidence to be given under oath were there signs information was being hidden.
"Ministerial offices will be figuring in our inquiry and that is all I will say."
She's had it with Dirty Politics.
Here's my prediction. A National government even if re-elected will not survive the first year. There will be a successful vote of no confidence in the House once these watchdog officials (including Cheryl Gwyn) start calling ministers and officials in under oath and eventually release their findings. Members of the National caucus not involved in these sorts of dirty tricks will cross the floor to sink their own government.
The country has had six years of being run like a very large company, and tomorrow is the referendum on whether most people feel that's the right way to go about building prosperity, or doomed to stunt us as a nation in perpetuity.
Trickle down is one thing. Then, there have been plenty of other issues to get exercised about along the way - dirty politics and dirty spying are just two that spring to mind. A Government that has engaged in those things, to whatever extent, will regard another term as a mandate to continue along the present path. Apparently, that doesn't bother at least half the population, who are moaning that their adulation of John Key has been rudely interrupted by an election campaign. Read more
So JK is giving you a hardon and DC isnt, really shouldnt the policies and direction be the important part? Sadly it seems not.
What I do see is a fear of loopies ie Mana getting to power, not that un-reasonable but ACT is OK? I mean let a shop owner have a gun under the counter is A OK...oh boy.
I'll take the beetroot only, thanks and vote(d) Green.
regards
DC , who gives you a " hardon " , inherited a 33 % poll rating for NZ Labour .... and has taken it all the way down to 25 % ...
... shoulda backed David Shearer 100 % , instead of being a treacherous S.O.B. , lying in wait for his opportunity for a run at the big time ...
Bon appertit with your plain rat sandwich !
I don't think Internet Mana are actually loopy - to me they've paired up with Dotcom for all the right reasons - he's the only one telling the truth!
The Herald reporter has just posted the full audio recording with the ex-government lawyer - now whistleblower;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11327317
As the guy says, everything changed once Simpson Greirson started making OIA requests for information held by government agencies on Dotcom.
Listening to the Mana rhetoric I dont agree, its worryingly out there and Im to the left of centre. Just how much damage has it done to Labour's election?
Didnt DC even came out with we wont form a govn with mana? which should be telling you heaps about what the feedback was from the voters. Trouble is for DC its looking like he has no option but to as the % Labour will get is so bad.
Going to be an intersting night anyway, must get some beer in.
regards
And popcorn!
But I suspect it won't actually be over until the specials are counted. One of my sons for example is a special. There may be many who only registered this past week. My son's been a non-voter all his life (is now in his 30s). It was only in the last few days - when Key started calling Greenwald the names and dodging/denying all the GCSB questions that he started thinking about it.
The final straw that made him to decide to vote this time round was Key's fat joke (Dotcom has a big butt and his henchmen have small butts one). He just thought it was the true sign of a bully and he should do something about it.
... Crazy Colin looks 'like one of those wide-eyed slobbering wee doggies who continually adore their master no matter how often he boots it up the arse ...
After the election , check the Jolly Kid for pools of saliva or other substances dripping off his person ....
Hmm well we'll have to seperate out the Peter Dunee slober first of course.
It will be an interesting evening, the 5% is IMHO way to high a bar, 2% way more reasonable and Im sure JK will see it that way as well, maybe for 2020.
Im not so sure Crazy Colin will roll over, I think there will be some clear expectations if he gets to 5%.
Could be a good experience for NZers.
regards
"It's great they can afford to be complacent. But many of us, well-off or not, are scanning a horizon where international economies are faltering, resources are becoming more scarce, our society is becoming alarmingly unequal, and we are worried that we do not have the innovative leadership required to bridge the inevitable difficulties."
yep she sees it., it seems many dont want to.
"In truth, we are damning ourselves to a pretty dismal future if that's the mantra we aim to follow."
Indeed.
regards
For that writer to make any sense she ought to consider her own sentence.....".there are those with power and those without" (or something along those lines)!!
If we were to believe all people should be treated equal then we would need to have a written constitution and somewhere accessible to hear any breaches.....as we only have a series of papers which very few of the populace is knowledgable on then we have all granted our power to some other authority!
The writer of the article you posted up is part of the problem........people who make demands of others without effort on their own part are what is ruining this country..........people who want to continue along a path without having to make a change to themselves or what they do and want everyone else to constantly pick up the pieces for them are the problem!
Are we not all born with the same internal power? Do we all use that power or do most of the people allow others to use their power over us? Hence we have the crazy lack of choice voting for the best of the worst!
We should indeed have a proper constitution, however that would end up in years if not decades or political manoueverings and court cases sorting it out and achieve little.
So the Q is do we want to send time fixing our lack of a clear and easy to understand constitution or fixing the far more important issues, I vote for the latter.
The writer you lamblast actually sees our future rather well. I fail to see in her words your stranage interpretation of what she says, but then your views are fantastical to say the least.
regards
I'm fantastical....here tis just for you...I assume you didn't hit the "read more" on SH's link.
The writer was talking about Kate Sheppard.....but in my view has failed to understand the principles.
"She understood implicitly that a society in which huge chasms exist between those with power (or money) and those without is doomed to dysfunction".
Everyone has a different philsophy on what the important issues are which leads to dysfunction which leads to nothing ever being fixed.....so voting for voting sake is never going to fix a thing it only takes you to another point based on on the political flavour in existence at the time.
So people can either spend the time in reaching an agreement on a constitution or they can spend their time in the continual swings and round-abouts of the status quo.....
Kate,
I would like to think you were right in expecting New Zealanders reactions to systemic corruption having been established in government over the last few years, being reason enough for the government to have lost the confidence of New Zealanders.
However the evidence over the last month is that too many New Zealanders appear not to care. If they don't care, then the politicians, the Nats in particular, will carry on.
If a National government is returned, I don't think it will be because all those voting National don't care (i.e., are happy about deception) - more I would think that many don't fully comprehend as propaganda techniques (such as have been used extensively by Key in fronting these allegations) are extremely effective and hence, powerful.
Well, don't take my word for it - herewith evidence from the expert:
The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, but their power of forgetting is enormous. In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan. As soon as you sacrifice this slogan and try to be many-sided, the effect will piddle away, for the crowd can neither digest nor retain the material offered. In this way the result is weakened and in the end entirely cancelled out...
But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unfiagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.
Mein Kampf by Adolf Hitler, Volume One - A Reckoning, Chapter VI: War Propaganda
http://www.hitler.org/writings/Mein_Kampf/mkv1ch06.html
And now ask yourself, how many times did Key say "it's just a left-wing conspiracy..."; "at the end of the day NZers will see it for..", "Dotcom's little henchmen..", and so on; over and over and over and over and over and over and over.
Or Kate, just consider it for a moment that they're not dumb, that they know NZ has gone through both global and domestic disasters over the last six years and come out of it with some of the strongest growth rates and lowest unemployment rates in the OCED. They figure that the Govt might actually had some hand in that and want to give credit where credits due. It's also quite possible that they haven't been taken in by the propaganda and the stary eyed "celebrity" cult that seems to have so impressed the left. Conversely they might also be horrified by the alternative.
Some folks might have a better memory than me - Didn't they make it illegal in NZ to use mechancial (or electronic) telemarketing machines. Ones that phone people up off a list or randomly.
From memory they did - just as telemarketing had its original boom in NZ. People wanted a ban on the practice, but it was ruled ok, as long as it was one human calling another, their was little the law could do without infringining on peoples' rights. But IIRC using a machine was demmed outside that right, and invasion of peoples' right for non-interference.
If I'm correct why did I just get a phone call from an electronic "John Key"
I don't think that it is illegal in New Zealand, but could well be wrong. National used them last election as well, so I can't imagine they made them illegal in the interim. I'm not even sure if it counts as an election expense if the calls are coming from overseas (I just don't know the law in that area).
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