National Party surges while Labour flags

Latest Roy Morgan poll shows National Party support at highest since July; Labour hits lowest level since Cunliffe became leader

21st Feb 14, 10:12am by David Hargreaves

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

The National Party has continued to surge ahead in popularity in the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll, while Labour has slumped to its lowest level of support since David Cunliffe became leader.

The latest poll of 859 electors conducted through both landline and mobile telephone from February 3 to February 20 shows National moving from 47% support in the previous poll to 48%, which is its highest reading since July last year.

Conversely, Labour's dropped from 33% to 30% in the latest poll and that's a lower level of support than the party was on when David Shearer stood down as leader on August 22 last year - though Labour's support did dip as low as 26.5% in April 2013. Immediately following Cunliffe's election as leader in mid-September, Labour enjoyed 37% support.

The Greens, having slipped from 14.5% support late last year to 11% in the last poll have now moved back up to 12%.

The latest poll result leaves National tantalisingly close to being able to govern alone - should the results be converted into election results.

However, in terms of potential coalition partners for National, it was again a mixed story. Colin Craig's Conservative Party, being groomed as a potential partner, has slipped again and in the space of a month has gone from 2.5% support to just 1%. Meanwhile ACT, which recently elected Jamie Whyte as new leader, has bounced back from zero in the last poll to 1% support - actually its highest reading since October.

But the Maori Party has slipped again from 1.5% to just 0.5%, putting it behind the Mana Party, which was steady on 1%, though Peter Dunne's United Future has re-emerged from zero to 0.5%.

If National can't make it into Government on its own, this poll's results suggest an increasing possibility it might need to talk to Winston Peters and his NZ First Party. Peters and NZ First have moved up to 5.5% support from 4.5% support in the last poll.

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24 Comments

by Boatman | 21st Feb 14, 10:49am 1392932978

This is no surprise to anyone , and until they come up with some new ideas that are constructive and forward thinking , they will remain in oppostiion.

Unfortunately , they are stuck in the post WW2 failed and discredited redistributive socialist ideaologies of the last century .

Bright , young, educated , ambitiuos and techno-savvy Kiwis under the age of 40 have moved on in this new century from these lofty lefty ideologies of their parents.

Labour's $60 /wk bribe is so 1970's, and an insult to the bright young generation .

Labour's resentment of the successes of Kiwi businesses is hugely problematic , and they forget its small business taxes that pays their inflated wages to sit a sprout nonsense in Parlaiment

Labour are hell bent on TAX- AND- SPEND OTHER PEOPLES MONEY policies , instead of trying to grow the nations economic cake for the benefit of all .

by The best statu… | 21st Feb 14, 11:12am 1392934321

Cuntliffe is a numpty when up against King John. KJ has even turned GCSB to his advantage with Peters/Norman gifting KJ with visits to Kim Fat Con and Labour still cuddling the fat man.

Best result for NZ will be a National led governmant again. Opposition are in dissaray, people are seeing through their uncosted gifts. Norman's thin green veneer of being reasonable has rubbed off and the red inner is starting to show.

by Happy123 | 21st Feb 14, 11:24am 1392935093

Modern western politics is a race to the centre and National is already there; Labour was left with only one option to go further left which they have done. Nationalisation of industry, handouts for breeders and more tax tax tax are not going to win votes. The only question left for Labour should be ...who is going to be the next major opposition party?... The Greens... or will our aging population turn to Winston??

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Feb 14, 1:38pm 1392943085

Happy123 - read this link- very carefully, and maybe twice.

http://www.colinjames.co.nz/time-for-new-thinking-says-fuddy-duddy-lord/

I agree with Boatman above, and with the others (Hughey's nonsens about housing being the exception). But that link is a very shrewd look at where will will need to go. My guessing is that the presenter of today's Top 10, is what we will get to - bypassing the Greens or taking them with Gen Zero on the way.

Labour are history - something I've pointed out here - and to them - for a long time.

by Plutocracy | 21st Feb 14, 5:38pm 1392957532

Hugh, you seem to be ignorant to some of the most defining problems that the next generation will face. While your stance on affordable housing is commendable, your one dimensional thinking shows your age and inability to adapt to changing situations and environment. No one is saying the 'end is nigh', however it is the end of 'business as usual'. Perhaps you should try asking 'why' sometime!?

by PeakEverything | 22nd Feb 14, 11:47pm 1393066040

The daily mail Hugh? Ice age Hugh? I think you are looking for the Whale oil blog or perhaps the golden oldies blog.

you are correct you do need to rely on others with expertise on the climate issues and I will give you a hint it's not the daily mail or some right wing polictical blog. Climate change is real and its a big issue. Now sure it won't affect you massively assuming you die in the next 10 - 15 years but perhaps you have children and grandchildren.

I can assure you your grandkids won't be saying wasn't Grand dad Hugh great for getting us cheap houses! They will be saying why was my Grand dad so blind to the obvious consequences of humans quest for economic growth. Perhaps you should take the time to tell your grand kids how you don't think climate change is anything to worry about now, or are you only able to lie to yourself?

by Happy123 | 21st Feb 14, 4:12pm 1392952365

Thanks for the link. I’ve said here before that I’d vote for the Greens if they dropped their Labour-esk social and economic policies and focused more on the environment. I’m 35 so my view of the current Green party is probably broadly similar to most others my age and ilk. A re-branding of the Greens would take years, a better alternative would be for the Greens to partner with National at the next election. In a power sharing arrangement they would be better able to introduce environmental/sustainable policies.

I don’t know a single person my age that would vote Labour, an indicator of their future.

The new generation, my generation, are more aware of the concept of sustainability but financial security and prosperity still comes first. Any party looking to get gen x, y or zeros vote will need to first convince them they will have jobs after they are in power.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Feb 14, 6:22pm 1392960134

Th stupidity of that comment, is breathtaking.

It's economics, as practised, that is wrecking the environment.

Are you lying purposely to thers, Hyghey, or to yourself? Do you really believe that tripe?

Ask yourself what environmental damage would be being done, if folkk weren't busily turning the planet into a dollar.

The ask yourself what those dollars will be worth when there isn't enough palnet to be bought.

Pity sex takes so little brain - we migh have been a smarter species.

by steven | 22nd Feb 14, 6:51am 1393005108

Only interesting in that its more tripe...

regards

by notaneconomist | 22nd Feb 14, 1:26pm 1393028766

Good article Hugh. There is far too much emotion thrown into this whole climate debate. People need to learn to back off and be dispassionate and read all information.

by PeakEverything | 22nd Feb 14, 11:54pm 1393066452

There isn't a debate the science is settled. To be fair I expect such rubish from you and Hugh but Happy123 I know you sort of get "it". You are too smart to fall for this climate denial rubish. More importantly you are too young, we are the ones who will have to live with the consequences in our lifetime.

by Happy123 | 22nd Feb 14, 12:27pm 1393025266

Back in my corporate days they liked to send me on management courses, one of the aims being influencing people. I learned about neuro science and the pre-frontal cortex which requires switching on for people to learn new things. If you trigger an emotional response, people's pre-frontal cortex will shut down and they revert to their existing behaviours or beliefs. I see you on here day in and out trying to educate/influence people on sustainability which is admirable but your rather caustic comments/replies are going to keep triggering emotional responses and peoples pfc will shut down and no one learns anything. I'm sure you probably find this condescending, which is perhaps a good thing as it illustrates my point.

by dazz | 21st Feb 14, 8:31pm 1392967860

As a 37 year old I broadly agree. Russel Norman toned down by 10 degrees would make an interesting match with National.

by dazz | 21st Feb 14, 9:40pm 1392972015

Yes - I believe Russell would mature and mellow with a good solid portfolio and being answerable to the voters. How about Minister of closer economic relations with Australia!

by Casual Observer | 22nd Feb 14, 1:08pm 1393027704

Hugh, Norman can be a contrary fellow. Last year he spoke to two groups of farmers. It just happened that some farmers were also at the second meeting he spoke at. Two very different speeches. One a 'typical' Green Party political speech. The second a much toned down speech - almost conciliatory. To use the phrase 'He speaks with a forked tongue'. Which 'fork' do you trust???

by Grant A | 22nd Feb 14, 11:01pm 1393063278

Just proves he'll make great bedfellows with Cunliffe

by Happy123 | 22nd Feb 14, 12:33pm 1393025583

Norman looks and talks like a leader but as pdk says, you probably need a whole new party with a new agenda. The existing greens cant drop their social policies and certainly cant get into bed with National.

by steven | 22nd Feb 14, 6:57am 1393005431

LOL.....this sounds more like desperation....

Very often ppl mix in a social network have similar voting habits, no biggee. Though i'll admit I wouldnt vote labour either.

Some of "my generation", I find it amazing that those with such extremist views such as yourself like to speak for others.

"jobs" yes thats just it....peak oil says high un-employment, simply too many ppl for what energy is left, compounded by the debt we are building.

ergo default.

regards

by Happy123 | 22nd Feb 14, 12:44pm 1393026250

Chin up steven. Opportunities even in peak oil, as it gets more expensive people will want to tele commute meaning Geo Op shares will sky rocket. Combine that with our debt/ growth based economy ensuring billions are poured into NZX every year and that stock is gold. Get in now and you'll be comfortably retired before it goes south, just like me.

by PeakEverything | 23rd Feb 14, 12:09am 1393067367

Happy, making money is not the problem. Being comfortably retired doesn't put you outside of our environment / society.

That attitude is similar to the older guys on here like Hugh who know they won't have to live through the consequences of their actions but as I have said before we will. Your attitute seems to be if you are making money you will be fine. It won't matter how much money you have if we don't have an environment to support our society / economy.

by Chairman Moa | 21st Feb 14, 4:20pm 1392952856

Bring back Helen..

by Stephen L | 21st Feb 14, 8:50pm 1392969046

Let's see when all the policies are explained in detail. And if interest rates are up 50-100 basis points by an election.

by gordon | 22nd Feb 14, 1:14pm 1393028049

I used to generally vote Labour but when Helen and her cronies started dictating our lives with legislation and throwing money around like lollies ( working for families and interest free loans) to win elections and power of course I looked for alternatives.

Nothing has changed for me. Labour are in total disarray. Cunliffe with his weak chin and narrow gap between his squinting eyes does nothing to gain my confidence. You get the impression already that his team are not behind him. Jones with his attack on Countdown is their current de facto leader. One would have to think that the investigation should also look at Foodstuffs as they will not be lilly white. All sorts of games go on as they both jockey for position in the NZ market. Stories of employees getting under the table payments from property investors selling land to both companies is widely talked about.

National will cruise into power this year again as Labour are being themselves. Weak leadership and no unity behind the leader. Helen was a freak but she ate nails for breakfast and adored being in power. I am a socialist at heart but it is rare in NZ to have someone Norm Kirk to inspire you to vote for them.

by Stephen L | 22nd Feb 14, 4:45pm 1393040711

I'm not attached to Labour, so don't know their specific policies at all. But I wonder how income tax cuts for everyone would play out, by moving band thresholds up. These to be funded by the capital gains tax, which politically probably has to exclude the family home. Capital gains probably only on assets bought after the election. So risk only to a few, and somewhat distant.

Separately, they can explain in detail how power prices will come down with their policies.

Each of the above should rationally appeal to middle New Zealand, and be difficult for National to match.

Do a deal with NZ First to leave the pension age where it is, as moving it is probably a non starter. Give Winston a chance to be on board.

I agree the baby bonus idea is dumb politically- will only appeal to a small minority at any time. But probably not an election breaker. No-one else cares that much.

Commit to Auckland's train system, and maybe some benefits for Christchurch and Wellington.

In the meantime, let's assume the average interest cost of a mortgage has gone up by say $200 a month by the election.

Explain that National have zero moral high ground on fiscal management given they've run massive deficits for 6 years, after giving the wealthy tax cuts in year 1; so complaints of Labour's fiscal risks would be hypocrisy of the highest order.

Something like the above looks just possibly electable to me.

Time will tell.