Prime Minister John Key says the National Party could work with the Colin Craig led Conservative Party after this year's election, and he won't rule out potentially working with Winston Peter's New Zealand First.
At the same time Key has announced the return of United Future's Peter Dunne to ministerial positions. Dunne will be appointed Minister of Internal Affairs, Associate Minister of Health and Associate Minister of Conservation next week, Key says, and be a Minister outside Cabinet as he was before his resignation last June.
In outlining who National will consider working with following this year’s election, expected to be in November, Key said his preference would be to continue working with National's current three partners ACT, the Māori Party and United Future. Although there were policy differences between National and the Conservative Party, Key said it was "likely that there would be enough common ground to work with them in Government.”
As for NZ First, Key said a post-election working relationship was "very unlikely, " but he wouldn't rule the possibility out before the election.
“In 2008 we ruled them out because we were unable to reconcile some of their statements on the Glenn donation matter. Six years has passed and, should New Zealand First be returned to Parliament, we would not rule out a discussion after the election," Key said.
'A far left wing agenda'
Key did rule out working with Labour, the Greens and Mana saying the three represent "a far left wing agenda" that isn't good for New Zealand.
“MMP makes it likely that every election will be a tight contest,” Key said. “That means it’s also likely that following the election we will need to work collaboratively with other parties to form a stable Government."
"First and foremost, National will be campaigning hard for every party vote it can win, because that puts us in the best position to continue the positive policy direction New Zealand is on. Put simply, the higher National’s party vote, the more options we have."
“Since November 2008, we have shown that we can lead a stable Government with other political parties involved, even when those parties have different outlooks and policies," Key added. "Looking ahead, it is most likely that the nature of these working relationships will be via Confidence and Supply Agreements, as these have worked well in the past two Parliamentary terms."
“In the end it is the public who largely determine the make-up of the Government by voting in parties to Parliament,” Key said.
Dunne returns
Key also announced changes to the Ministerial line-up, taking effect from next Tuesday, January 28.
He said these would see Dunne replacing Chris Tremain, who will retire from Parliament at the election, as Internal Affairs Minister. Dunne also picks up roles as Associate Minister of Health and Associate Minister of Conservation.
Dunne, previously Inland Revenue Minister, resigned last year after an investigation into the leaking of a GCSB report found he had 86 email exchanges with Fairfax journalist Andrea Vance in the 13 days before the leak was published in the Dominion Post, including many that discussed the report.
“I am pleased to welcome Peter Dunne back as a Minister. We have worked together well in the past, and United Future continues to be a valued partner in government," Key said.
“While 2013 brought its challenges, both Peter and I start this election year looking forward, not back.”
Key said Michael Woodhouse was being promoted to the Cabinet vacancy, retaining all of his current responsibilities. Paula Bennett takes over from Tremain as Minister of Local Government, on top of her existing portfolios. The new Minister outside Cabinet will be Peseta Sam Lotu-liga, as Minister of Pacific Island Affairs and Associate Minister of Local Government.
Lotu-liga takes over as Minister of Pacific Island Affairs from Hekia Parata. Separately Todd McClay takes over Tremain's role as Associate Minister of Tourism.
31 Comments
.... yup , Jolly Kid has done nothing to undo the seriously dopey policies of Helen Clark/Micky Cullen ... WFF .... interest-free student loans .... yarda-darda-dooooo ....
Stuffed if I know what room Cunliffe has got now , seeing as the Gnats are over on the left of centre too ....
.... and I notice Cunny has ditched the tax policies that David Shearer was running with , as Labour leader ..... tax policies which Cunliffe himself drew up !!!!
The implications of that are:
In order to retain power, John Key is willing to get into bed with others .. in doing so he would have to be prepared to accede to some of their policies .. policies which he is not willing to consider otherwise .. now that is cynical .. all for the sake of power .. not for the sake of the populace .. yet if the populace vote for either Peters and or Craig in numbers they will be telling Key they dont like what he is doing ..
That should be the "kiss of death" itself
I'm suprised "Whichever major party NZ First supports" has been so low in the current poll.
My Opinion: If National give the Conservative party a seat, they will probably bring in 2 MPs from the religous fundamentalist block, ACT gets 1 MP if they are given Epsom again, if a new econonic right wing party is formed in the next month or two (only rumours at this stage) and are given a seat they might bring in 2 MPs. Maori party decimated with 1 MP at most.
With all that, and a fair pro-national turnout, they will still need Winston for a National-NZ First-Conservative-Unnamed Right Wing Party-ACT-Maori Party government.
yeah for democracy.....
Though Im not so sure on "given" Rodney worked hard for Epsom, give him credit there. Are there enough NZers willing to accept such an accomodation with christian fundies and a new right party, ie 3 seats to do that?
Will enough NZ swing/middle road voters elsewhere be so agast it costs National mainstream votes?
Let them form their right wing loony pack, I hope they do. It gives NZers a clear view of the right and what they'll do to retain power at any price. I'd wonder on NZers stomaching that....
regards
Puleeeez , who said anything about Colin Craig being a dictator ?
From what I have read , he is person with conservative views holding traditional family values , who occasionally goes to Church .
Unlike the Greens who are STALINISTS MASQUERADING AS ENVIRONMENTALISTS .
"I don't know if I am a creationist or not," he said. And when his first non-negotiable policy of the year is to change NZ law to match an Austalian law (when the Australian law he mentioned actually doesn't exist) I have to wonder how interested in fact based policy he is.
That said, I wouldn't compare Craig to Pinochet or Norman to Stalin (however much bold and all caps text people use to say it).
I think I am comfortable saying I reckon iPredict is overestimating the Convservative block slighty, even if they do spend as much on the election as last time (the second most, ahead of Labour and behind National) I can't see them getting much over last time (so less than 4%).
Wednesday, 22 January 2014, 2:23 pm
Press Release: iPredict
IPREDICT LTD
2014 Election Update #2
Wednesday 22 January 2014
Key Points:
• Growth to be 4.8% but unemployment to remain above 5.8%
• 100 point rise in OCR expected
• Boscawen now expected to lead Act but its future on knife-edge
• Mana the safest of small parties and NZ First not expected back
• Key’s probability of third term up to 58%
• Conservative Party may be decisive
• Mallard and Dyson now expected to seek re-election
Commentary:
John Key’s odds of a third term have improved marginally this week, with a 58% probability there will be a National prime minister after the election. However, with National and Labour/Green in a dead heat, Mr Key’s prospects of a third term depend on small parties, particularly the Conservative Party. The election will take take place with economic growth approaching 4.8% but with unemployment remaining above 5.8%. Among the small parties, Mana is in the strongest position in terms of confidence it can win an electorate seat while Winston Peters’ NZ First continues not to be expected back. Act is also vulnerable – John Boscawen is now favoured to lead the party, with David Seymour favoured as its Epsom candidate, but it has only a 50% chance of winning the pivotal seat.
Economic Context
As reported last week, growth is expected to be strong during the year. iPredict’s first quarterly projections are that growth will have been 1.01% in the December 2013 quarter, and will be 1.18% in the March 2014 quarter, 1.19% in the June quarter, 1.16% in the September quarter, and 1.21% in the December quarter. Annual growth in the 2014 calendar year is forecast to be 4.8%.
Falls in unemployment are expected to be more modest. Unemployment is expected to have been below 6.03% in the December 2014 quarter and to fall to 5.92% in the March 2014 quarter, 5.88% in the June quarter, 5.85% in the September quarter and 5.83% in the December quarter.
The annual current account deficit is expected to have been 3.6% of GDP in the December 2013 quarter and to be 3.5% in the March 2014 quarter, 3.6% in the June quarter, 4.0% in the September quarter and 3.9% in theDecember quarter.
There is now an 85.8% probability there will be a fiscal surplus in 2014/15. The fiscal surplus is expected to be 0.56% of GDP in 2014/15 and rise to 0.83% of GDP in 2015/16. Stocks forecasting the 2016/17 fiscal surplus will be launched today.
Annual inflation is expected to remain around the Reserve Bank’s 2% target midpoint through 2014 and within the 1-3% band. Annual inflation to the end of the March quarter is expected to be 1.62%, rising to 1.91% in the June quarter, 2.02% in the September quarter and 2.11% in the December quarter.
The inflation forecasts need to be seen in the context of rising interest rates. There is a 98.9% probability the Reserve Bank will raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in 2014. Despite higher-than-expected December 2013 inflation data, there is still a 67.6% probability the OCR will not be changed on 30 January but a 70.4% probability it will be raised by 25 basis points on 13 March. A further 25 point rise is expected in either April or June and by30 October the OCR is forecast to be 100 basis points higher than it is now.
There is an 89.9% probability the Reserve Bank’s restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio mortgages will stay in place through 2014.
Election Date & Personnel
There continues to be an 80% probability the election will be held in the fourth quarter of 2014, and a 62% probability it will be held in November, up from 55% a week ago. All current party leaders, except for retiring Act leader John Banks and retiring Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia are overwhelmingly expected to remain in their roles until nomination day.
There has been a change in forecast for the leadership of the Act Party. John Boscawen now has a 55% probability of becoming leader ahead of Jamie Whyte on 45%. There is less clarity on who Act’s Epsom candidate will be, with David Seymour favoured but with only 45% probability.
In the highly unlikely event there were a change in leader of either the National or Labour parties, Judith Collinsand Grant Robertson are favourites to take the role in their party, with 37% and 47% probability respectively. Contrary to market prices last week, Labour’s Ruth Dyson and Trevor Mallard are now both expected to seek re-election. The probability Murray McCully will retire has eased back from 47% last week to 43% this week.
Party Vote
There have been only small changes in forecast party vote shares over the last week. Of the major parties, National is expected to win 42.96% of the party vote, Labour 34.07% and the Green Party 9.29%.
No other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system. The Conservative Party is expected to win 4.53%, NZ First 4.33%, Act 1.87%, the Maori Party 1.38%, Mana 0.69, UnitedFuture 0.59% and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.30%. Stocks for the proposed Civilian and Kim Dotcom parties will be launched in the near future.
Electorate Contests
Contract bundles for every electorate will be launched progressively through the year. Of the small parties, Manaand UnitedFuture are most likely to win a seat, each having an 80.2% probability of winning at least one seat, followed by the Conservatives on 64.6% probability and the Maori Party on 61.5%. Act has just a 50% probability of winning an electorate seat.
In terms of expected electorate MP representation, only Mana has a value above one, being expected to have 1.05 electorate MPs. The Maori Party has expected electorate representation of 0.85 MPs, UnitedFuture 0.84 MPs, the Conservatives 0.65 MPs and Act 0.59 MPs.
The Greens and NZ First are not expected to win electorate seats.
Election Result & Alternative Scenarios
Based on the party vote forecasts and the electorate results above (including an assumption that Act were to win one electorate seat) Parliament would be as follows: National 54 MPs, Labour 42 MPs, the Greens 12 MPs, the Conservatives 6 MPs, Act 2 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, UnitedFuture 1 MP and Mana 1 MP, for a total of 120 MPs. A government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
Under this scenario, both National and Labour/Green would have 54 MPs and would require the support of other parties to form a government.
The current National/Maori Party/Act/UnitedFuture governing arrangement would have only 59 MPs and could not form a new government. However, National could form a government with the Conservative Party and one or more of the Maori Party, Act and UnitedFuture parties.
A government comprising Labour, the Greens and the Conservative Party, and one of UnitedFuture or Mana, would also be a theoretical possibility with 61 MPs.
Because of the political vulnerability of the Act Party, iPredict has also calculated what would happen were the party not to win an electorate seat. Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 55 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, the Greens 12 MPs, the Conservatives 6 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, and Mana and UnitedFuture 1 MP each. National and Labour/Green would again be tied, this time on 55 MPs, each with minor parties deciding the government. National and the Conservative Party could govern with the support of UnitedFuture, as could a Labour/Green/Conservative arrangement with or without the UnitedFuture or Mana parties.
iPredict has also examined what would happen were the next two most vulnerable minor parties, the Conservatives and the Maori Party, to miss out on electorate seats. Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 59 MPs, Labour 46 MPs, the Greens 13 MPs, and UnitedFuture and Mana 1 MP each. With prime minister John Key having ruled out working with the Labour, Green or Mana parties, National could not govern but nor could Labour/Green/Mana. Only a Labour/Green/Mana/UnitedFuture arrangement would be possible to avoid new elections.
Overall, the market indicates that National has this week marginally improved its very narrow advantage over Labour to lead the next government. There is now a 58.3% probability of a National prime minister after the next election (up from 53.3% last week) and a 41.7% probability of a Labour prime minister (down from 45.1%).
Miscellaneous
iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found atwww.ipredict.co.nz. The weekly political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 10.37 am today.
ENDS
The thing iPredict is vulnerable to, and has been affected by in the past, is people buying publicity by shifting the betting odds by putting money down (as actually a pretty cheap form of advertising) and with a 5% move in a week, I would be wondering if it is being affected by it.
That said, in the latest poll here about 65% of replies peg National, and if people believe that (rather than it being a reflection of the audience at Interest) there would apparantly be some easy money to be made betting against the deluded fools at iPredict who are underrating National's chances. My wallet is staying shut on that one, though.
Personally, baring election year shocks, I think a lot of the swing will be controlled by the question "For most voters, are their wages increasing in line with their costs"
Oh, I am happy to acknowledge Colin Craig has a constituency, and has every right to run for parliament. It is just from his comments about creationism and moon landings I know I am not that constituency. Because I am not that constituency, I would really rare people who voted for him were clear on what they were voting for.
Just look at that trend....down or at best now flat.
and the big difference between this term and the 1st term.
I have no idea on how well iPredict is actually successfully predicting but it seems no worse than many others.
I suppose you could take the "Fundie" vote that United future had and assume that the Conservative party can also party poll at more or less that level. So it all hangs on CC being handed a seat or not. I suspect we'll see that eventuate. NZers will get what they deserve Im sure.
regards
iPredict is considered very good at binary outcome predictions over a long period of time, and generally beats traditional polling. This type of prediciton exchange is vulnerably to short term "money attacks" where the buying contracts pushes up the prediction likelyhood, and the publicity generated is cheaper than buying a bunch of headlines through other means (that is why I would be a bit cautious about the 5%jump in one week, particularly without knowing the number of traders involved). These jumps even out over time as other players take advantage of the disparity between price and reality, but that is slightly more gradual and doesn't get the same headlines. This was known to have happened on Intrade in 2008, and there is some evidence that someone tried it again in 2011.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jacobfischler/trader-lost-millions-apparently-t…
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