New Zealand's overseas merchandise trade balance - the difference between what we export and import - was a surplus of NZ$414 million for the month of June.
The balance was much better than expected, with forecasts for a surplus of about NZ$100 million. The news prompted a brief spike in the value of the New Zealand currency, before the currency settled back again.
The better-than-expected monthly figures also produced a better than anticipated trade deficit for the year to June of NZ$777 million.
Westpac economist Nathan Penny put the "surprise" monthly surplus figure down to temporarily weak import data.
"...We expect a reversal in the July data, particularly as domestic demand remains strong," he said.
"We expect volatility in the trade balance data to continue for the next few months as a number of large movements (think drought and large swings in currencies) throw the balance around.
"An improving balance trend will underpin the volatility as recovering agriculture production and exports accompany the still high dairy prices.
"Heading into 2014, the Canterbury rebuild will increasingly dominate the trade balance data as demand for imports from the rebuild grows. We expect trade deficits to persist from that point," Penny said.
Statistics New Zealand said the seasonally adjusted value of exported goods fell 4.7% to NZ$11 billion in the June 2013 quarter.
This followed a rise of 0.4% in the March 2013 quarter.
"Dairy and meat exports led the fall, with values and quantities down for both," industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said.
The seasonally adjusted value of imported goods increased 1% to NZ$11.6 billion in the June 2013 quarter.
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the June 2013 quarter was a deficit of NZ$669 million, equivalent to 6.1% of exports. This follows a NZ$14 million deficit for the March 2013 quarter.
For the June 2013 month, export values decreased NZ$161 million (3.9 %) compared with June 2012, and imports decreased NZ$286 million (7.4%).
For the year ended June 2013, goods exports were down NZ$970 million, to NZ$45.7 billion. Exports to Australia fell NZ$927 million, while exports to China rose NZ$1.6 billion. Imports for the June 2013 year fell NZ$956 million, to NZ$46.5 billion.
New Zealand’s international trade is made up of trade in goods and services. Overseas merchandise trade statistics measure the goods component of international trade.
Trade balance, monthly
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3 Comments
Just for some balance, this is how the Statistics NZ media release led:
The seasonally adjusted value of exported goods fell 4.7 percent to $11.0 billion in the June 2013 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. This follows a rise of 0.4 percent in the March 2013 quarter.
"Dairy and meat exports led the fall, with values and quantities down for both," industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese values fell 6.8 percent, and quantities fell 18 percent.
- Meat values fell 9.2 percent, and quantities fell 12 percent.
The seasonally adjusted value of imported goods increased 1.0 percent to $11.6 billion in the June 2013 quarter.
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the June 2013 quarter was a deficit of $669 million, equivalent to 6.1 percent of exports. This follows a $14 million deficit for the March 2013 quarter.
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/imports_and_…
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