By Alex Tarrant
The Labour and Green parties would be able to form a government if an election were held today, according to the latest TVOne-Colmar Brunton poll.
And Prime Minister John Key accepts the question of potential coalition partners for National heading toward the 2014 election is a challenging one, as current partners ACT, United Future and the Maori Party languish in the one-three seat zone.
The Maori Party could in fact be holding the balance of power in 2014 according to another poll released on Sunday, this time a TV3-Reid Research poll. That's if the Maori Party holds onto the three seats it currently has.
Labour-Green coalition
Sunday's TVOne poll showed Labour up 3 points to 35%, National down 1 point to 44%, and the Green Party up 1 point to 13%. Winston Peters' New Zealand First was down 1 point to 4%, meaning it would not re-enter Parliament, given it did not win any electorate seats
That would give Labour 45 seats and the Greens 17, against National's 55 in a 123-seat Parliament.
The poll allowed the Mana Party (a possible Labour partner), ACT (possible National partner), and United Future (possibly both) one seat each, based on an assumption each party leader would win an electorate seat. The Maori Party (possibly both) was forecast to win three seats.
That meant National might be able to garner enough support for 60 seats (Nats, ACT, UF, Maori), not enough to defeat a coalition of the left.
Maori Party hold balance of power?
The TV3-Reid Research poll showed National with 47% of the vote, down 1.8 points from a month ago. That would amount to 59 seats. A seat each for ACT and United Future, if leaders John Banks and Peter Dunne, respectively, won their electorate seats, would give a potential National-ACT-UF government 61 seats.
But Labour's 34.6% (up 1.6 points) and the Greens' 12.9% (up 1.3%), would give them 43 and 16 seats, respectively, matching National's 59 seats. Assuming Hone Harawira'a Mana Party (one seat) is accepted into a coalition of the left leaves the Maori Party holding the balance of power with their three projected seats in a 124-seat Parliament.
Finding partners challenging
On TVOne's Breakfast programme on Monday morning, Prime Minister John Key said any election would always be tight.
“It’s natural you would see some recovery from Labour. They were at real historic lows – they had a disaster in election 2011, like we did in 2002. So they’re really getting that support back from New Zealand First and others,” Key said.
Asked about National's potential coalition partners going into 2014, Key said the issue would be a "challenge."
“But I think it’s worth remembering, we’re two years away [from the next election]. For a start-off, New Zealand First would go with Labour, but the question is, would New Zealand First get back, because a lot of Labour voters voted New Zealand First in 2011 because they knew their team wasn’t going to get there," Key said.
“Two years, look, it’s a long time in politics. A week is a long time; two years is an awfully long time. The public tend to work it out," he said.
“They will say, 'do we want National and whoever else, or do we want Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First.' I think they will look at us, because, in the end, I picked up the Herald this morning and there is a [Green] member of Parliament saying ‘no’ to more jobs. And it’s not going to be any more complex than that.
“The Greens are fundamentally opposed to progress. It’s all very well Labour talking about things – I don’t happen to agree with a lot of it – but the Greens with Labour will stop economic growth. And I think that’s what New Zealanders will be confronted with.”
While some industries were facing job losses, “tens of thousands” of new jobs had been created under the National-led government.
“The last 12 months have been pretty tough around the world. A couple of governments around the world have been hammered really. If you look at Hollande in France – the French President – he lost half of his support in the first five months. More support than any leader," Key said.
“You’ve got to accept these are tough times, you make tough decisions.”
The government was on the right track to resolve issues like unemployment over time.
“I accept there are frustrations. Things aren’t going as fast as people would want, and internationally we are held back by those big headwinds. We need to be realistic about that," Key said.
Close call
Meanwhile, the latest Roy Morgan poll at the end of November also projected a close-run affair:
15 Comments
Steven - well there are some who are gullible and others who want to ride on the coat tail of others efforts.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/05/31/sorry-global-warmin…
@waymad...Do you honestly believe that your money is yours. Or that any government taxes what they spend. Modern money by definition is lent into existance, it's debt.
All governments monetize debt....it's why we created central banks.
Question is why we borrow from private banks for public works.
Cheers.
...wel I am afraid the Nats have only themselves to blame. They are short sighted and cannot see that the environment and our reputation as to how we care for for it is a very real economic asset. They are blinded by outdated ideology - time for the dinosours to move aside.
Generally i dont comment on political party promises, but in this case one team seems to have an Affordable Housing plan although ambitious and the other seems to want to ignore or neglect the issue, matbe hold another design contest, or another Home and Housed Report, or another enquiry at the Productivity Commission.
All i know is at some stage some investment will have to be made, the current 65000 Housing Corp homes are at the end of their lifespan, best to start buying some concrete wood and tin, maybe less reports and consultants.
In Coloundra Australia they have began building 15,000 Affordable Homes with the first home owners grant derivved from the GST generated by the build.
its easy seed it with $15k and the Govt get back 38k in GST, builders work, apprentices hired the home owner pays for maintenance, insurance and the mortgage. Here we want to build more Social Rental Housing, with all of the ongoing costs to be met by the state.
Over the past 5 years i have never seen so much research on the subject of Affordable Housing coupled to so much in-action...........NZ needs to be building, enough talk, its action time, its building time.
Greens: Interesting comment about the Greens. In previous elections their final percentage has always fallen short of pre-election polls. It is suggested that with social networking they will be able to overcome the deficit and lock in more floaters or previous non-voters.
Labour: Labour does deserve the kudos of at least coming up with a policy on housing. I have been looking for anything from National and come up with zilch. If there is anything that can get the twenty and thirty somethings out to vote it will be their potential to own a home.
Election organisation: Obama used well organised networking to get out his first win. He seems to have built on that one in the recent election. The Greens are capable of it. Labour may have the organisation to use it. I suspect National may have the expertise but not the organisation to take advantage of it.
My vote 2014: I admit to voting for a different party in each of the last four elections. So far one of them no longer exists in name, and of the other three only National has so far dropped off my list While Greens have been added. Next time for the first time I will voting on behalf of my grandchildren's future as a first priority.
I always look at the trend and not the specific point value....so an increase to 17 suggests support is staying and might improve. I was quite surprised at the 11%, so think its a big ask to hold onto, maybe that isnt the case.
Obama's election was interesting, in that the poles ended up very close to the final result...hopefully ours will ge better.
Demographics will be intersting, as the Green's are younger and Natioanl are all older, less tech savvy and they are dieing off...ie old, angry white males....v younger and more cosmopolitan....the same thing I suspect will count against Labour...hard core unionists die out.
"grandchildren's future" yes same here but Ive been voting that way for a decade.
regards
Our latest poll is on this
http://www.interest.co.nz/node/62322
Given the weekend's political polls, will the next government be led by Labour?
Dreds will be complusory if'n the Green have their wicked way, Steven. I'll let an old croaky feller have the definitive word on Politics and Choices:
Well, the rain beating down on my window pane
I got love for you and it’s all in vain
Brains in the pot, they’re beginning to boil
They’re dripping with garlic and olive oil
Tweedle-dee Dee—he’s on his hands and his knees
Saying, “Throw me somethin’, Mister, please”
“What’s good for you is good for me”
Says Tweedle-dee Dum to Tweedle-dee Dee
Well, they’re living in a happy harmony
Tweedle-dee Dum and Tweedle-dee Dee
They’re one day older and a dollar short
They’ve got a parade permit and a police escort
Read more: http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/tweedle-dee-tweedle-dum#ixzz2DxSGbko1
PM Key and his followers are willfully ignorant:
"“The Greens are fundamentally opposed to progress."
You could say exactly the same thing about National - noodling around the edges without making any real change. No progress, just more of the same discredited policies.
Every Nzer needs to be aware of this: http://www.nzcpr.com/weekly355.htm
There is a constitutional review going on as we speak under an agreement Natioanl has made with the Maori party. The only people being informed are IWI and the goal is the incorporation of the treaty into our constitution and the creation of a two tier society with Maori at the top. Click the link NZCPR explain it much better than me.
You mean let Muriel Newman explain it to me?
The same don't-let-facts-get-in-the-way-of-a-good-panty-wetting, NZ Tea Party Leader, former ACT party dropout, fringe far right loony Muriel Newman?
Weren`t her & Don Brash all buddy buddy back in 2010 with all this NZCPR garbage before it disintegrated into embarrassment for all concerned?
Obviously you have something to gain from the apatheid system they are trying to introduce or you really need to get over your prejudice and have a look at the message. This country is stuffed if this goes ahead. A new constitution without consultation smacks of somewhere like Zimbabwe. Do some homework.
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