As if the EU didn't have enough problems ...
Even before the euro crisis, people were worried about Europe’s pension bomb. State-funded pension obligations in 19 of the European Union nations were about five times higher than their combined gross debt, according to a study commissioned by the European Central Bank, Bloomberg reports. Their ageing populations have left them with a 30 trillion euro mind-numbing problem (yes, you read right - 30 trillion).
The taller they are ...
There is an "unhealthy correlation" between the building of skyscrapers and subsequent financial crashes, according to Barclays Capital.
The Volker Rule under fire
Forces are building against the US imposition of the 'Volker Rule'. The Volcker Rule is designed to prohibit most "prop trading" by banks, where institutions take positions for their own accounts, but Wall Street has argued that the restrictions will also hamper "market making", where a bank stands between a buyer and seller of securities. Canada and Japan both worry that markets for their securities will dry up, reports the FT. Ditto New Zealand?
Getting started
"The most important thing for a young man is to establish credit - a reputation and character."
John D Rockefeller
more below ...
| 8 am | --- 52 week -- | |||||||
| Today | yesterday | high | low | |||||
| -------- | -------- | --------- | --------- | |||||
| FX rates | NZ$1=US$ | 0.7957 | 0.7835 | 0.8822 | 0.7174 | |||
| NZ$1=AU$ | 0.7723 | 0.7693 | 0.8085 | 0.7276 | ||||
| Gold | in US$/oz | 1,639 | 1,615 | 1,895 | 1,319 | |||
| in NZ$ | 2,035 | 2,035 | 2,314 | 1,705 | ||||
| Copper | in US$/t | 7,641 | 7,503 | 10,147 | 6,785 | |||
| in NZ$ | 9,456 | 9,456 | 13,507 | 8,299 | ||||
| Crude oil | in US$/bl | 102.94 | 102.28 | 118.70 | 89.69 | |||
| in NZ$ | 128.90 | 128.90 | 149.14 | 117.26 | ||||
| US Treasuries | 30 yr bond | 3.02% | 3.06% | 4.73% | 2.88% | |||
| Dow | DJIA 30 | 12,426 | 12,467 | 12,919 | 10,402 | |||
Employment confidence slips
The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence index fell 4.6 points in the December quarter, from 104.2 to 99.6. This is the lowest level of the index since June 2009, when it stood at 96.1.
Who says crime doesn't pay?
It was once confined to the sun-baked, sleepy south of Italy but the Mafia is now that country's biggest business enterprise, with an annual turnover of NZ$225 billion, according to an authoritative report.
Big debt
NZ government gross debt (securities on issue) ended the year at NZ$65.4 billion, down from a high in October of NZ$70.9 billion which was the all time high-water mark, RBNZ data shows. It also shows that NZ public agencies are holding less, while the financial sector holds more than 50% now.
Growing appetite
China’s gold imports from Hong Kong, a proxy for overseas buying, set a record in November for the fifth consecutive month as demand from the world’s largest gold consumer continued to defy expectations, reports the FT. China’s gold imports have soared in recent months, as Chinese investors pour their savings into popular gold bars and consumers start to buy gold gifts for Chinese New Year.
No chart with that title exists.
21 Comments
... always and without fail assume that correlation is and always implies causation, we make, with the help of John Lohman, the following argument: since global leverage (via Debt-to-GDP) has a greater correlation to the "Temperature Anomaly" aka Global Warming, at 0.79, than CO2 concentration, at 0.69, it is obvious that global warming is purely a function of ever increasing leverage, and not, as is widely accepted by various ecological consultancies, carbon dioxide concentration. And now you see how easy it is to make idiotic, and totally spurious statements (which however serve as fodder for even more idiotic peer-reviewed white papers and journal submissions this keeping lots of people employed while contributing absolutely nothing to society), which given enough time, will become religion to a new breed of shamans once the old ones are forcibly kicked out of their comfortable corner offices.
Carefull, some people will not realise that "always and without fail assume that correlation is and always implies causation" is sarcasm. This could lead them to draw from this the obviously invalid assumption that climate change is under dispute.
Here is another 'study' with heavily flawed analysis showing that you can get statistically insignificant but of course highly correlated results emerging from even the most incoherent analysis. It should be apparant (and verifiable) that the studies author essentially produced some random numbers (due to mistakes in his data analysis) and then found a strong correlation to the temperature record which were apparantly statistically significant only because this significance was incorrectly measured.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2004/08/mckitrick6.php
Of course the zero-hedge article (which has been clipped) does not record the study it is drawn from (and the comments show many posters have not read the article at the top of the page). The most obvious flaw in the study being, the correlation doesn't apply to the pre-historic temperature record.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/soaring-debt-gdp-more-reponsible-global-warming-rising-co2-levels
But
"Even as Bernanke and fellow U.S. central bankers consider expanding their efforts, they are acknowledging their inability to turn around the housing market without help from the rest of the government. Bernanke underscored the importance of residential real estate, which represents 15 percent of the economy, in a study he sent to Congress last week that said ending the slump is necessary for a broader recovery.
“They’re definitely frustrated and disappointed,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC and a former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond researcher. “I’m sure they would have anticipated they would have gotten more bang for their buck.”
While the Fed has helped push mortgage rates to record lows of less than 4 percent, home-loan borrowing in 2012 is forecast to decline to the least in 15 years. Americans who might refinance and buy properties are getting shut out by stricter lending standards or avoiding transactions as values tumble amid mounting foreclosures, according to the Fed study"
Conclusion: The current jabba about recovery in the US is so much pure brown stinking BS.
And a Tsunami of foreclosures remain out of sight round the corner....hidden by the poodle media because they prefer the lies and BS.
Stop the bus...I have found the solution to the worlds economic mess...
"Every star twinkling in the night sky plays host to at least one planet, a new study suggests.
That implies there are some 10 billion Earth-sized planets in our galaxy."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16515944
laugh if you must but the spin machines will have no trouble in selling the idea that investing in interstellar travel is a dead cert. Think of the tens of trillions that will flow into the coffers...all that land to sell...all the resources....and so much potential for encouraging certain elements to emigrate on the first freighter...oh what joy.
Just in case of that eventuality, Krugman has written a report on exactly how to have interstellar trade.
Is it fair to charge a " fat tax " on obese air travellers ? ... Ex-Qantas chief economist Tony Webber reckons fatties are costing airlines $A 472 per flight .... and it is time to make them pay ! ... [ As per today's Sydney Morning Herald . ]
OK David : A fat tax on obese airline travellers , or not !
Hey Gummy...I smell a chance to make some bucks...be the bloke in the middle arranging a plane load the skinnies all offered lower fares but you taking a wack off the airline for giving them a light load at beefy returns even with the fare cuts. They could trim fuel use by tens of thousands on an airbus load across the Pacific...
Not at all, contrary to what some believe.
Although, I did lose a dear realative the other day. His Obit is here.
The day Elvis ate a lawnmower.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=107756…
But, but, but.....
You are happy with Guantanimo Bay, yes?
Waterboarding?
Fine distinction, methinks.
Interesting that a spindoctor looks to repress. Says it all. Your way or the highway, eh?
I mention my house getting a Homestar rating of 8. You can't do better than repetitive mutterings about 'caves'.
I discuss the impossibility of exponential growth, when based on physical resources. You can't (won't) do better than mutter repeatedly 'Malthusian'.
I'll do you a deal - you raise your game to the point where we are actually debating the actual, and I'll confine myself to debating with you at the same level.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.