An earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale hit the Christchurch region just before 2 pm this afternoon and was followed just over an hour later by an bigger aftershock measured at 6.0, Geonet reports.
Cantabrians report via Twitter the quake was violent and caused power outages, cut phone lines and damaged buildings.
Residents reported liquefaction in some suburbs.
Police reported one injury, but said there had been no serious injuries or widespread damage.
Police said they were urging drivers to slow down.
"All available Police units have been mobilised across the city to provide reassurance and check on safety and damage," Police said in a statement.
They detailed the following around 4pm:
- Scarborough rockface has suffered some collapse but this has been contained by the containers at the foot of the cliff.
- Lyttelton tunnel is open
- Airport has been evacuated
- All major shopping malls have been evacuated and closed
- 1 person is reported to have been injured at Eastgate Mall and has been taken to hospital.
Around 5 pm they detailed the following:
People are urged to stay away from hill suburbs because of risk of rockfalls.
- Some residents at Windsor Hospital rest home in New Brighton were reported to be trapped on the second floor, but are being evacuated by the Fire Service.
- Significant flooding and liquefaction eastern suburbs including Avonside and Bexley, Retreat Road, Bower Ave.
- Stopbank in Kaiapoi is damaged.
- India Blue restaurant in Sumner is damaged and has been cordoned off.
- Building on the corner of Charles St and William St, Kaiapoi is at risk of collapse.
- A vacant house at 81 Aynsley Terrace has collapsed.
- A red-stickered house in Oram Ave, New Brighton has collapsed.
- Drivers are urged to slow down and be patient as congestion is building up in some areas. Stay off roads if you do not need to travel.
- Phone networks are under pressure - text rather than phone.
Police continue to urge residents to check on their neighbours.
Federated Farmers called for farmers to report damage to utilities.
“Initial reports to Federated Farmers from our members is that is was an especially violent event,” says Bruce Wills, Federated Farmers President.
“While it has not been centred on the City it has struck rural Canterbury."
Geonet said the first earthquake struck 8 kilmetres beneath Canterbury at a point 20 kilmotres north east of Lyttelton and 20 kilometres east of Christchurch.
Residents reported the second shake appeared to do more damage to windows and may have been shallower.
Geonet reported the second one was at 6.0 on the Richter scale.
The New Zealand dollar was steady around 77 USc despite the quakes.
'Four more years'
Local bank economists have been told it may be four years before Christchurch stops shaking, and some fear as many as one in 10 residents will leave the region if major aftershocks like today’s continue in coming months.
“At this juncture, there’s not much other than to look to the sky above,” said the ANZ’s chief economist, Cameron Bagrie of the major after-shocks on the last normal business day before the Christmas weekend.
“He’s been dishing out the bad stuff in spades. Sure, we got the Rugby World Cup, but we need some other good news on the ledger.”
Not only do the quakes inevitably delay the Christchurch rebuild, but they were likely to encourage a much larger exodus from the city than was already likely, he said.
The aftershocks recorded at 1.58 p.m. and 3.18 p.m. were 5.8 and 6.0 strengths respectively, the first out to sea at a depth of eight kilometres, while the second was a relatively shallow 5.8 kms deep, centred on the spit at South Brighton.
The ANZ had predicted after the September 2010 quake the city could lose as much as 5 percent of its population, and been accused of being too pessimistic, said Bagrie.
“It could be, from today, that was being conservative,” he told BusinessDesk. “Now, looking at Christchurch, that 5 percent seems too light and you could be up to 10 percent.
“That has massive consequences for infrastructure, networking, the whole capability of the city.”
'2012 rebuild now 'heroic' assumption'
The latest shakes came as nervous people had just started dropping their guard, said head of strategy at the Bank of New Zealand, Stephen Toplis. “This is going to scare them.”
While no deaths or injuries were immediately reported, Christchurch mayor Bob Parker said they inevitably put the rebuild of Christchurch back, and were “very distressing” on the eve of Christmas after a difficult year. Major aftershocks on Boxing Day 2010, Feb. 22, June 13, and during the Rugby World Cup in September, have put back reconstruction several times.
“My immediate reaction is to assume that the rebuild in 2012 is a pretty heroic assumption,” said Bagrie. Most economic forecasts, including the Treasury’s, have assumed the insurance-funded rebuild would kick in later in 2012, but every delay so far has pushed out the rebuild by three months or more.
However, every major aftershock creates months of additional delay because of its impact on global reinsurers who stand behind New Zealand insurance companies, and have suffered huge losses because of the quakes, which wiped out the country’s $6 billion Earthquake Commission insurance fund.
The rebuild will create a construction boom, but in the meantime the damage has cut a swathe through employment in the retail and hospitality sectors, with a report this week highlighting one-third of women's jobs in those sectors have disappeared since September last year.
Toplis said the government geological service, GNS, had warned it could be four years before the shaking settled down.
“This is all part of the same thing and it’s going to keep happening,” he said.
Initial financial market reaction has been muted, with market watchers expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates lower for longer because of delayed reconstruction, but not to cut the official cash rate, already at a historic low of 2.5 percent.
"The insurers have said they will not be paying up in full until they're confident that things are stable - this just tells them it's not," Toplis said. Still, it's "a postponement not a cancellation" and it was "grossly premature to start talking about interest rate cuts."
(With Pattrick Smellie of BusinessDesk)
(Updated with more detail from Police, Geonet, Federated farmers, economist reaction)
396 Comments
My experience: still shaking, and have just had another really big one now. Hubby just arrived and we're off to the outdoor pool with the (very worried) kids to try & relax a bit (or failing that, to the Ashley river if it's closed. Hopefully not too much risk there). Not feeling like being indoors right now. What a start to the holiday.
In my many years of looking up this site, this is a very unusual drum pattern –
http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/drums/
– extremely long tremors – I have never seen that before.
They are now reporting of three major earthquakes 5.8, 5.3 and another one of 5.8
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
" The earth tilted back the other way creating stress"
That is what you posted. It is wrong.
The tilt of the axis of the panet is constant.
The orbit is constant.
The speed of the orbit is constant.
The rotation of the planet is constant.
For "constant" read fixed in the lifetime of Humans. Orbit and rotation decay is tiny and constant.
There is movement yes but it is due to a 'wobble' on that axis...
Consider for a minute dinosaur what energy would be required to cause the earth to change its axis tilt from the angle you posted...to cause a "tilt back the other way"....it would require a close call with another planet and we would not survive that event....the axis is tilted because at some stage billions of years ago, there may well have been such a close call...and enough gravitational force was applied to put the Earth into this state of being.
This bit is Rubbish." The change in that magnitude on a body the size of the planet creates stress."
The Earth maintains the tilt on its axis no matter where it is when orbiting the Sun....that is the bit you fail to grasp....it is because of the tilt and of course the orbiting that there are seasons...if there were no tilt there would be no seasons....
You make the common mistake of thinking the Earth has a bleeding big wobble on as it orbits the Sun....it does not.
Think it through.
Like the boffins at CERN...all cock a hoop cos they found another Boson...and think they are so close to the Higgs and to solving the riddle...what a diddle....to discover all the itseebitsee bits have even smaller bits within..no end to the smallness...on and on she goes...
On the other hand they have discovered the best of the best when it comes to rorts...they probably know there is no end discovery...what a fabulous permanent stream of money....
Good man Simon, send me the money and I'll do my best....remember when the "experts" said the Atom was the smallest thing ...ooops no they changed their mind....even 'strings' have parts within and they inturn have little strings....there is no end to small Simon...same as no end to 'big'.
Thanks Hugh for the detail on that.
Here's the link to that site.
http://www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz/
cheers
Bernard
I am unfamiliar with the use of accelerometers to describe these devices because an accelerometer is simply a device that measures acceleration.
However during the years I was with DFC (late seventies to mideighties) I was involved in the funding and joint venturing of the "Energy absorbers" developed by DSIR's Dr Bill Robinson and others.
The main innovation was the lead rubber bearings which combined the flexible base separation at the foundations but used the melting of the lead to absorb energy before it could do too much damage.
OOne reason that light timber frame buildings are so resistant to earthquake is that all those nails are energy absorbers. If you touched them after an earthquake they would be hot.
These base separation devices made elevated roads and bridges much safer and California become an early international market.
However, a key part of the technology package was the engineering calculation packages which enabled engineers to calculate the right size of bearing and lead plug for any particular installation including retro-fits.
The cheaper version is called RoGlider and they are recent development.
Go here for more with some reference to Christchurch installations:
http://www.irl.cri.nz/newsroom/news/getting-your-bearings
Hope this helps.
I suspect the reference to accelerometers is simply slack reporting.
The DSIR (Now Industrial Research) developed the lead rubber base isolation sytems and were the first to do so.
But they are expensive and hence are only used in major buildings or bridges.
The same team how now developed a low cost version suitable for schools etc.
I cannot see any sense in developing accelerometers for schools or any other buildings. These are just devices used to measure the force of earthquakes. They have no protection function.
I suspect Hugh is off on a tangent again...its his lack of engineering/science....
Such a device could be an interesting school rolling experiment....something like having a class pet....
I would think you could build a small, simple electronic device for a nominal amount...not as sensitive by far but it only need to detect somewhere below what a child/adult would notice anyway.
regards
Not sure what is actually installed in the schools, but building equipment that uses accelerometers is cheap and straight forward therse days. Accelerometers are in everything from Smart phones to hard drives to hi-fi sub-woofers as well as more obvious places such as in cars (think air bags and fuel pumps). A three axis unit is just a few Dollars in quantity. Anything deployed in NZ will very likely be based on these chips ... which will of course not be made in NZ, but somewhere more high tech, most likely in Asia.
Hugh, I have been rather critcial of you lately, but I must applaude your courage in noting the unnecessary hysteria - and dribbling from politicians.
Bob Parker rushing back by any means possible so he can don a high vis jacket and pretend to be Rudy Giuliani. For what?
jh - you might like to tell me for example, why housing with superficial internal wall cracking requires a total internal paint job - costing $20,000 and more. When your car has a small ding, do the car insurers do a total repaint job? No......they simply mix and match to repair the small damaged part.
......
I spotted that one myself. My friend had that treatment and when I quizzed he said: "I paid my EQC levy!!!!!!?
From the north part of the city...
Not sure how many there have been now, at least 4 'big' ones as in feel like 5+ magnitude, and the last one felt the strongest here and did the most damage. Still only things falling off shelves, speakers falling over, computer monitors falling over, stuff coming off of walls, bottles falling into the bath etc.
Power seems to be holding up. We still have water. Internet (Telstra cable) is going. Phone landline is down. SIP IP phone going strong. :-) Vodafone TXT working fine (haven't tried cell voice calls).
Captain Cook would be well pleased , from the grave , as his team drew up the map of NZ with Banks Peninsula as an island ....... and Stewart Island as a peninsula .....
...... meebee those old guys could foresee the future .....
Wouldn't wanna be on a boat , oyster inseminating in Fouveaux Strait right now , .... just in case .....
Awful news and at the worst possible time! I wish geonet would get some ‘real’ seismologists in from America who could explain what the hell is going on down there with all these slipping faults around Christchurch. Our own lot certainly don’t seem to know. Nevertheless my thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Christchurch. Merry Christmas Canterbury and I hope these will be the last of the big ones that you’ll have to endure for a very very long time.
The guy from geonet was just on Sky news talking about this.
This is my summary of what he said
The basic gist is that the Chch earthquakes are very unusual and probably only happen anywhere in the world every 10,000 yrs.
The large earthquakes that usually occur around the world are on defined fault lines and are well studied and are well understood as to what happens after the first quake.
The Chch quakes are in a 'strain field'. The first quake hasn't released all the energy that a quake on a defined fault normally does. What is happening is each Chch quake puts strain on other parts of the field that hold potential quakes that in normal times wouldn't release for 500- 1000 yrs but are being activated by the new strains that each new quake create.
This is why they are having trouble predicting what will happen because this type of sequence hasn't occured before anywhere in the world in the last 100 or so years so there are no studied to help predict what will happen.
It must have been very frightening, Elley. I don’t know how I would cope with it all to be honest? I grew up in the lower North Island, and the 5.2 and 5.3’s were enough for me! But 6.0! I hope there was no damage at your place and it won't disrupt your christmas celebrations too much?
No damage at our place thanks, but we are in Oxford so further away from today's aftershocks (compared with the 7.1 Darfield one).
Still, I was painting the attic (!) during the first one and it shook pretty hard, the roof rattled for a good 20-30s. The 6.0 was also felt very strongly here and longer. My husband was in Chch on the 2nd floor of a concrete building today and drove back home right after the 5.8 one.
It's a shame really; after 6 quiet months many people, including us, were starting to feel more "confident" about the ground I think, and not worrying so much about another big one, so having this happen again, and just before Xmas too is going to be tough to cope with for many :(
Christmas celebrations, well, we're alone (as alone as one can be with 5 kids anyway!) and haven't got much planned other than having fun with the kids and eating lots of chocolates so it won't affect us too much.
Have a good Xmas everyone.
Yep, it's a beautiful place...although in hindsight maybe a bit too close to the Alpine Fault. At least the ground our section is on is not prone to liquefaction - if it had been different, I think our house would have been shattered after last September's quake, and all the other ones since.
Elley, my ancestors came to NZ from Scotland when they were in their 20's, they arrived in Dunedin after 4 1/2 months at sea, a month longer than planned due to storms and left on horse back the next day to ride to Wanaka where they farmed untill the wool crash and depression of 1860's or ealry 1870's. They then moved to a farm on the banks of the Clutha but there was a huge flood in1878, a 1 in 500 year flood , they lost all the stock and were left penniless ( i think the river level was 20 meters above normal). They then moved to Canterbury and worked for some English prick they hated before my great Grandmothers uncle a Swan from Glasow helped them buy a farm in the North Island. Immigrating is never easy but hang in there it all works out in the end.
The first thing a good scientist should note is that 'we just do not know'.
And scientists shouldn't be afraid to say it rather than pretending like they 'know'. Physicists say what they do not know all the time.
How can humans 'know' or be expected to know, given the shortness of a human lifespan, indeed human existence, which is nothing compared to the ~4 billion years our planet has been around. Earthquakes work on a geological timescale not a human one.
Fire the bloody economists. Even without today's event they were far too bullish on the rebuild. Their modelling is far too simplistic for an ever more complex world. Like the seismologists the feeble limits of human knowledge is exposed.
God bless, have a merry xmas and take care all cantabs.
Matt
This is the one that I would look closely at....very shallow...offshore....
It was said that there would likely be more large quakes...they did their best and were right but nobody can put a time on these things...as for the economists..they fit into the spin zone and are best ignored especially those that work for banks.
FYI some good news from Moody's this evening. It has kept NZ's sovereign credit rating at Aaa with a stable outlook.
Details here:
New Zealand's Aaa ratings are based on the country's high economic strength,
very high institutional and government financial strength, and low
susceptibility to event risk. New Zealand's flexible and market-oriented
economic policies have supported economic performance that has become
stronger and less subject to external shocks. Although per capita income is
at the low end of the Aaa range, it is nonetheless high by global standards.
The relatively small scale of the economy is also a factor considered in
assessing economic strength. Institutional strength is very high, as
measured by governance, rule of law, and transparency. In addition, Moody's
believes that the government, of whichever party, will maintain a policy of
low debt and fiscal soundness.
With a relatively low level of debt and assured access to liquidity, the
government's financial strength is very high. While the fiscal metrics have
been negatively affected by the effects of the global financial crisis,
ensuing recession, and major earthquakes that struck the country in 2010 and
2011, the government that came into office in late 2008 and was recently
re-elected indicated its intention to return debt to a prudent level. Gross
government debt should peak at below 40% of GDP before beginning to decline.
Moody's believes that the debt trajectory and the policies to deal with the
recent shocks remain compatible with a Aaa rating.
The external liability position will remain high. However, there are several
factors that make the large external liability position less risky than it
might appear, including the high proportion of liabilities denominated in NZ
dollars and of foreign currency liabilities that are hedged, and the
related-party nature of much of bank liabilities. The composition of the
external liability position supports an assessment of low susceptibility to
event risk.
Rating Outlook
The stable outlook is anchored by the government's low debt relative to most
other Aaa-rated countries and Moody's belief that New Zealand will continue
with fiscal and monetary discipline and market-oriented policies.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
Inability to correct the upward government debt trajectory in the next few
years could cause the rating to move down. A major problem with access to
external finance that affected not only New Zealand and the Australian banks
that operate in the country would also pressure the rating.
The external liability position will remain high. However, there are several
factors that make the large external liability position less risky than it
might appear, including the high proportion of liabilities denominated in NZ
dollars and of foreign currency liabilities that are hedged, and the
related-party nature of much of bank liabilities. The composition of the
external liability position supports an assessment of low susceptibility to
event risk.
This is utter tripe - the assumption being we can repay these cross currency basis swapped foreign liabilities by NZD printing our way out to prosperity - goodbye NZD/USD pair 0.7700 - hello 0.3900 and the consequent rise in financing costs.
Reflecting upon the per-capita distribtion of liabilties noted in recent economic releases would confirm the compounding nature of them make it impossible for NZers to ever liquidate these debts in an orderly fashion .
Back home, a number that came out with yesterday's Q3 balance of payments data that got little attention is the level of New Zealand's overseas debt. It now stands at a record $271.9 billion, up almost $18 billion in the quarter. What was surprising about this was not the $4.8 billion rise in government debt, but the $13.1 billion rise in private sector debt in the third quarter.
At September 30, New Zealand’s international liabilities exceeded its assets by NZ$148.2 billion, or the equivalent of 72.9% of GDP. This was up from NZ$138.4 billion (69.0% of GDP) at June 30.
Wow Gibber, thanks for that, have a good time over the next few weeks.
Leave you this to ponder on, Im thinking that oil is our weak link too.
>>>>>>
Heating Oil and Gasoline are poised for a possible price explosion
http://peterlbrandt.com/gasoline-prices-are-ready-to-ignite/
Some have argued and Im in agreement with them that our economy and in particular the US economy cant stand energy costs at 6%+ of GDP.....Every time it happens a recession occurs....For me this was what triggered the last financial event ie rising oil prices, and will trigger the next and the next etc unless other things manage it first.....interelationships are way complex....
I you consider that $85 is high and we are now in the $100 region which is about 6% then that signals a recession....
regards
I argue that no economy can impose "for nothing" costs on every buyer of urban land for any purpose, and not strangle itself. The costs of energy are chicken feed compared to this.
Worse, the inflated prices of urban land lead to people having to make worse location decisions, and spend more on transport and fuel as well as their housing costs.
It is visible on Google Earth, how every city with strict urban planning and inflated urban land prices for long, has a "ring" of high density development close to the regulatory boundary and the furthest possible point from the CBD.
Not to mention "leapfrog" commutes from rural towns 60 miles away.
This is of course the opposite of the planners intentions. But because they have inflated the prices of all urban land, the apartments and townhouses they want people to live in near the CBD, are a million dollars each instead of, say, $150,000 - which is what they would need to be to actually get significant numbers of buyers.
Because of the way land prices affect the total price differently at the fringe, to nearer the centre, the distortion of prices caused by the planners, results in new fringe homes being $450,00 instead of $250,000; and townhouses and apartments near the CBD being $1,000,000 instead of $150,000. OK, maybe I exaggerate - but the principle is 100% sound.
This is the ultimate example of "unintended consequences" that economists like Hayek and Friedman used to write exposees of. By the way, there are books and papers about all this by specialists like Alain Bertaud, Anthony Downs, and Patrick Troy. Even the famous "Costs of Sprawl 2000" Report had a chapter on this. But the planning faddists refuse to listen.
Let the best arguments win ppl over....I believe you commented earlier that ppl are not generalist enough....so, Oh because we are interested in the effects on business...
and I fail to see why what is a tiny libertarian minority should have free reign, ie influence beyond their numbers.
regards
"At this juncture, there's not much other than to look to the sky above," said the ANZ's chief economist, Cameron Bagrie of the major after-shocks on the last normal business day before the Christmas weekend. "He's been dishing out the bad stuff in spades. Sure, we got the Rugby World Cup, but we need some other good news on the ledger." herald
"He"?......is Bagrie for real....
I was in a city board room full of structural engineers when the EQs hit this afternoon, they provided an interesting commentary and are the most calm people to be around during an EQ. Their calmness is catching.
Upon reflection I do wonder if we should stay given the effect on our children.
We divested financially after Feb. as the reports all provided a concensus in findings . As a couple we have seen the main reports that were released and discussed them in depth, they all have a similar theme, regular six EQs will likely occur for approx. five years with increased activity for twenty-thirty years.
We have this built into our expectations and considered carefully before deciding to stay . To keep people positive it appears the media have been asked not to disclose or are not aware of the reports commissioned?
The bank economist comments make me wonder if the embargo of non disclosure to the masses is starting to break.
I mentioned these reports without the details earlier this year for those interested to investigate and decided for themselves with the advantage of having information before it hits the mainstream.
Suspect the debate is going mainstream so decided to be a little more explicit for the benefit for those in Canterbury who may read this. The experience todate has always suggested this was going to be a long hard road.
All the best.
Well if reports like that exist, and I have no doubt that they do, then it is unconscionable if they have been deliberately withheld from the people of Christchurch and New Zealand. If they are freely available but the news media has failed to pass that information along, then that is an indictment on the competency and quality of our news media.
It is imperative that the best and most accurate information is made available to everyone as people lives, their investments, commercial, rebuilding and policy decisions are at stake. We don’t have the luxury here of the usual highly strung she’ll-be-right it’s-not-my-fault New Zillund histrionic nonsense. It’s quite obvious that what is happening in Christchurch seismically speaking is atypical. Neville C’s post above nicely points out why that is. No doubt the atypical nature of the Christchurch events is of great interest to seismologists all around the world and we need the world’s best seismic brains involved in the analysis and understanding of what is going on. You can guarantee that the big international reinsurance companies won’t be backwards in coming forwards about accessing that talent. Given the collaborative nature of science I would be surprised if many of these experts were not already involved in working with their New Zealand colleagues on the quakes anyway. If some of their preliminary findings about what to expect over the coming years are being withheld from the public that is an outrage and it should be exposed and those responsible named.
According to speckles it appears these reports do exist. I suspect no one has gone public with them because govt is hoping everything will "work out" - but cover ups don't work. So what could they be trying to avoid?
A collapsing dollar if our second city can not realistically be rebuilt, a mass exodus to Australia, insurance premiums through the roof, a surge in the govt deficit, lower tax take etc, etc.
Hi there. Thankyou for your comments. Where can I get more indepth information regarding your comments e.g. the commissioned reports detailing seismic activity for the future.
regards,
Peter Lynch
Hi there. Thankyou for your comments. Where can I get more indepth information regarding your comments e.g. the commissioned reports detailing seismic activity for the future.
regards,
Peter Lynch
" regular six EQs will likely occur for approx. five years with increased activity for twenty-thirty years."
That's dramatic, but fits in with the TV3 documentary I showed for years to year 9 and 10 students on NZ earthquakes. The implications for rebuilding CHCH are ominous.
Most are aware that soil resonance must have been a factor in the collapse of several highrises.
The eastern CBD has about 20m of loose deposits overlain dense gravels. With the speed of vibrational waves through silty soils the resonance coincides with buildings around the 5 to 6 storey height of conventional concrete construction.
And we all know what happen with resonance (Tacoma Narrows bridge):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-zczJXSxnw
The likelihood is that it was a major factor in the collapse of the CTV building, PGC, the Harcourts Building (unoccupied and collapsed on June 13), and the near collapse of several other buildings.
Yet the council insist on building new buildings only to this height?
What we need is fail safe buildings.
We need solutions fast. Not bullying and nonsense from ill-informed bureaucrats.
What you are highlighting here is an important point. Think about it in terms of the length of the wave. A taller building is generally longer than the wave and can accomodate and dissipate the movement(energy) along its lenght(height). Smaller buildings that can't absorb the movement suffer from its full extent. Ten stories is actually about the worst in this regard.
An analogy that my be useful is a ship on the sea. A 5 metre sea might be throw around a 12 metre yacht but a 6000 tonne ship might span 4 or 5 of those swells.
RED ZONE / GREEN ZONE BOUNDARIES WRONG
Although much of the red zone areas obviously had significant damage again, some of the marginal red zone areas had next to no liquifaction while many former ORANGE zone (now GREEN) areas particularly the north end of Bower Ave and much of Queenspark/Parklands had the worst liquifaction this time round.
The fact is that the direction and location of the earthquake makes the most difference to where liquifaction occurs.
With the scale of liquifaction in Bower Ave in both February and June there is no way that the land in that area should have been green zoned IF areas in Avondale, Dallington, Richmond etc which had minimal liquifaction were zoned red.
CERA simply don't know what they are doing.
Now insurers have got more excuses to buggerise round. A solution is needed which doesn't involve more stupidity.
Even the slightest suggestion that slab on ground foundations are suitable in liquefiable areas is nonsense.
An entire rethink needs to happen to prevent a mass exodus. Because there is no doubt large numbers of people leaving ChCh won't move to other parts of NZ but will leave to Aussie.
Another good little rumble just now.
But has anyone noticed the uncanny coincidence that the June 13 earthquakes occurred at:
1pm for the first high 5s quake followed by a big low 6s at 2.20pm
Today:
we had a the first high 5s quake at 1.58pm daylight saving time (= 2minutes to 1pm NZ standard time) and a big low 6s quake at 3.18pm (= 2minutes before 2.20pm NZ std time).
I find that a little uncanny!
Purely a coincidence but... yet again the big quake is hitting on or near the highest tide of the month much like June 13, April 16, March 20, Feb 22, Jan 20.
That's a bit uncanny too.
Comparatively little damage on the south side of ChCh. Heathcote through to lower Cashmere had next to no liquefaction. A little bit by Linwood, a bit round Avonside Dallington (but not anything as much as before). Significant liquefaction around the north end of Anzac Drive and lots up in Queenspark (as bad or worse than Feb/June).
I've heard that it was nothing as bad as previous quakes in Charteris Bay, so I expect Diamond Harbour was no worse (probably much less worse) than Feb or June.
Can I just say that some of the reports of damage are nonsense.
People "trapped" at Windsor house - they simply evacuated the building because they didn't want hospital patients stuck on the second floor in case of a more major event. The building isn't remotely compromised (a near new seismically strong building).
The house at Aynsley Tce part collapsed in February, it has sustained little new damage.
I haven't seen it, but I suspect the old bank building on Williams/Charles corner Kaiapoi isn't much worse. It was on a major slope after September and has withstood the previous 3 quakes with only modest damage.
These Civil Defence people love hyping thing up so they can get out the bulldozers and take control.
We need the bureaucrats out so that sensible decisions get made.
Note that there's been another 5.5 up between East Cape and the Kermadecs about 30 minutes ago (USGS). That follows at least 2 other moderate quakes picked up on NZ seismometers in the last 3 hours in that region.
There was a 5.7 up there just a couple of days ago.
I know that region has more EQs than further south, but an interesting occurrence of coincident "swarms".
Of course there was a 7.4 up there only in October.
Surely it demonstrates our temperamental location, and other parts of the country should not think it won't happen here.
Clearly we had a massive shunt in Sept 2010, perhaps we will be in a period of increased activity for some time.
The problem is, if the activity leads to the rupturing of a major fault (ie the Alpine Fault) we could have a very very long period of seismic activity.
Imagine the impact other events have had on NZ (like Taupo erupting 1800 years ago) and then consider the reality that such events will happen again.
All and any research should be openly made public.
Chris, Hugh - interesting also, it seems to me the Christchurch earthquakes
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
are connected with earthquakes in Japan near the coast of Honshu
great to hear that there apparently hasn't been loss of life.
But this is going to be a killer for the NZ economy. The very remote chance of 3.5-4% GDP growth in 2012 that the morons had been predicting has all but vanished. 1.5% if lucky. The Govt is going to be forced into more severe cost cutting to make up for the lack of revenue. Unfortunately that will just make things worse.
I reckon that doublegz is pulling our legs ... ... rather funny , actually !
.. .. .. anecdotally , it seems to me that there's alot of jobs in Christchurch now . And the re-build / repair work is sucking workers away from other industries ...... plenty of job ads. in manufacturing .........
..... if some Cantabrians are ' fleeing " though , it is not because of the 'quakes themselves .. we are literally shaken , but not stirred , by now ...... folks just wanna flee the sight of Bob Parker in his ubiquitous hi-vis jacket ...... ever in front of a TV camera , or whispering sweet balmy nothins into a radio mike ....
Shut the heck up Bob , and just get busy ... and no , not busy giving your mates monster pay rises ! .. get busy doing your job , or it's curtains , the wall comes down on your career at the next election ...
Merry Christmas !
doublegz - where are all the jobs in Akld to employ fleeing cantabs - please tell me.
Yes more are likely to leave ChCh now - but they will be distributed across a range of places (including Aus), only a small number are likely to settle in Auck. If another 10,000 leave ChCh, then maybe 1000 may settle in Auckland
Consider this Matt in Auckland:
Public School zone: Remuera Primary, Remuera Intermediate, Auckland Boys Grammar, Epsom Girls Grammar.
- 2 mins walk to Rawhiti Bowling Club (http://www.rawhitibowls.com/)
- 5 mins walk to the famous Benson Road Deli (B.R.D.)
- 5 mins walk to The Maple Room (http://themapleroom.co.nz/).
- 10 mins walk to Orakei Basin
- 5 mins walk to parks and reserves (Waiata, Little Rangitoto, Martyn Field, Orakei Basin & Hobson Bay board walk's)
- 8 mins walk to Upland Road and Remuera villages (library/shopping/grocery/restaurants/cafes)
- 5 mins drive to the Bays (Okahu Bay/Mission Bay/Kohimarama Beach/St Heliers Bay)
- 8 mins drive to Newmarket shopping centre
- 10 - 15 mins walk to nearest garden centres (Palmers & Plant Barn - both with cafe's)
- 10 mins drive to Auckland CBD
- 3 mins drive to the Motorway
- 3 mins walk to the nearest bus-stop's
- 10 mins walk to the Orakei train station
Heaven for families, young and old adults, kids, even pets.
Come back, we need you and we miss you.
The response of government should be to immediately suspend all inbound immigration into new zealand, for the forseeable future, to allow the major centres to absorb and accomodate the dislocated that will come out of the canterbury area. Immigration from overseas largely goes into the auckland region and competes for already stretched resources. NZ's primary responsibility is now to assist its own.
He's just saying what the Savings Working Group said:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4622459/Government-policies-blamed-for-house-prices
Someone needs to explain what all our new arrivals actually do, apart from:
make money for immigration agents, realestate agents, developers, require new roads. harbour tunnells etc. Even in Great Britain people who suggest curbs on immigration are considered scum.
You look at a place like Bali, people make money from the land (tourism) yet everywhere you go there are too many people wanting to provide services.
Post over development Queenstown the ultimate insult is hoards of coach drivers from the Peoples Republic. Apparently a part of our free trade agreement.
Our new arrivals love living in the bubble and they don't really care about the average Kiwi Joe. It's all about how do you demonstrate your superiority to your family, friends, neighbours, and colleagues, and to total strangers driving past your fine manor and vast estate? Everyone will think you're a loser if you don't have the biggest and flashest house on the street. Live in a posh suburb in Auckland and you'll know what I'm talking about...do I like the experience? Not really. Do I have to do it that way? Probably.
I'm not sure about the Palms, but I've just come from Northlands and Westfield Riccarton and they were pretty much packed. Northlands has even taken over the carpark at Papanui High. The only evidence of yesterday's quakes was a few missing ceiling tiles, and upstairs at Farmers was closed at both malls.
Ok time to think positively....I reckon on the shakes lasting years into the future as the crap 'land' beneath the surface is ...well...crap and the two 'plates' are not going away right....
So how to make hay so to speak.....it's a great opportunity to market the region to tourists who would like to experience an earthquake knowing the worst will likely be a six and that the heritage rubbish has already fallen down...as well they have the best of medical care on hand and of course ACC as tourists in NZ.
Who or what are those in the game of selling beds to tourists, waiting for?.....put out the signs....shakey city....come and experience a real earthquake...
Why not?
"The quakes and resulting zoning decisions are likely to see thousands of Canterbury families on the move in the next year with many hoping to build a new home on solid ground"
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/your-property/5656558/Looking-for-a-section-in-Canterbury
First find your solid ground!...then look at the gst theft on a new home....and factor in the option of moving south or north to buy a sound old heart native timber bungalow on a larger section...no gst apart from on the legal bills.
Hugh's answer is right in front of him.
The gospel according to (the late) Julian Simon is the clue: apparently the more folk you get, the more resources you get,and the wealthier you get, a process to which there is no end and to which there are no physical limits.
A single quarter-acre will do it, then, Hughey. Cram 'em on. They'll get richer and richer, the more you cram, and as a bonus, there will be more and more underfoot (that had better read 'under feet - many') in the way of resources.
No need to develop any green-fields, that way. No need to re-site displaced folk. No need to encroach on farmland. Was Simon brilliant, or what?
The point from Julian Simon, is no resources are resources until humans use them. That includes land, and includes NOT cramming people. Every society in the world that "develops", moves from rural to urban on the national scale, but moves from urban to suburban on the local scale.
Good thread, factual stuff.
Big variations in liquefaction: Queenspark north area towards Tumara Park much less than Feb/June, but the top of Bower Ave, Broadhaven, Forest Drive: shocker.
Northshore/Waimairi Beach sailed through (this is - count 'em - only 800m east of Bower Ave) with not a scratch. As usual. Build yer house on wave-packed marine sand, eh! Water is currently off in Northshore (mains break at Beach Road), power OK (was off for a few hours yesterday. InterWeb fine. Gennies at all cell towers within 2 hours of the start of the quake series.
Rocked all night, a few solid ones: source is all in the east, but the same progression is occurring: the go-round-the-volcano unzip has extended past Port Levy to the outer bays off Akaroa.
Shakes felt strongly at Puaha valley (the Little River side of Hilltop) but hardly at all at Okuti Valley (the 'other' volcano, due south of Little River) just 5 km apart as the tui flies.
I think the phrase 'your mileage may vary' fits the bill here: another passing freight train as I type.
Yesterday's quakes make a mockery of the geotech engineers who believed the areas around the Avon River was the most susceptible to liquefaction.
The top of Bower Ave is a disaster this time while much of the mid parts of the Avon have little new damage.
In suburbs where green/red boundaries were arbitrarily placed (such as along Avondale Rd) it is clear that using roads to define red and green isn't a solution. Green zoned houses on the east of Avondale Rd were much worse than red zoned blocks a few hundred metres down the road.
There is no way these green zone areas can ever be built on with conventional foundations - and it makes a total mockery of saying some of those red areas can never be built on.
The fact is the whole of ChCh will be inundated with liquefaction to some degree if there are big enough earthquakes, so ALL new buildings need resistant and most importantly easily fixable. All new roads need to be resistant. Again most of the failures in roads were due to services (water, or sewer mains) damaging the roads. If the roads were built with a 1.5m bed of compacted base course with services buried in the verges, runoff areas or swales to collected excess water (from liqufaction or otherwise) then we wouldn't have these problems today.
But instead of doing any of the above, all the new developments are going ahead as they would have done pre earthquakes.
Little wonder insurers won't touch us.
A supreme stuff up by the CCC, CERA and the Government.
I agree, Insurer's will be waking I think...or the re-insurance will cost so much that you wont be happy.....businesses well, why stay? Got to wonder how long it will be before the penny drops.
I dont see how the council will get insurance, so back stopped by the Govn? ie us.....
regards
Great document.
Looks like the latest quakes are on the end of fault that is shown on page 11 which runs from the CBD thru to New Brighton and have '?' at each end.
Seems to be related to the fault that the Boxing day quakes occured on.
One hopes for Chch's sake, all the faults out in Pegasus Bay shown on the top of page 13 dont have to release before things settle down. Notice the fault east of Kaiapoi (bottom of page 13) has 15000 years of sediments on top of the end. That must be the reason that they say these faults only move every 10-15,000 years.
Where has the information about these aftershocks lasting 4 years come from? This is the first time I have heard this. If that is the case, should we realy be pumping money into the chch rebuild, when they are essentailly building on a moving target, where further damge to repaired buildings and contents are liekly to reoccur, making it even more and more costly.
These are extremely good questions, and yes 1st time for me, its a final nail in Chch's coffin IMHO...and its pretty clear why they have not said a thing. The problem is Chch has to be rebuilt immediately if its population and businesses are not going to collapse / leave.....waiting 4 to 5 years will kill Chch...especially if there is no substantial building taking place.
On reading this I would be mega pissed....if I hadnt left already......
regards
steven, I think you are wrong about this. By the way, I agee with much you write here, so I am not your usual knocker.
Now I am thinking aloud, so to speak.
Much of what was previously in the City Centre had no particularly strong reason to be there. It just happened to be a convenient place with low rents. How many businesses are really struggling to get back in there? Very few, I would hazzard. Sure, there were some marginal outfits that will grumble for the sake of it, and a few owner-occupier firms who have little alternative, but the vast majority have moved on and found new premises elsewhere.
Yes, we do need more centrally located hospitality, particularly hotels, but even that is not make or break. It is really impressive to see how many pop-up businesses there are.
Most of those who are leaving fall into one of the following categories; control freaks, flakes, entitlitists, bludgers, desperate. Most Cantabs are pretty stoical; note that the pretty well-informed Chris J and Hugh P are not on the road yet. Nor, for that matter, am I.
Major social infrastructure enterprises such as the Court Theatre and Central Library are already up and running in new premises. There are a fair number of movie theatres operating. The Art Gallery, CCC offices, Museum etc are operating. All of the central city supermarkets are operating. The new rugby stadium is not far off.
Cheers and Happy Christmas.
It will come down to $. Consider this is a once in 10000 year event and will take 4 or 5 years to disapate...and the implications of that.
The only way that Brownlee can de-risk the situation is for the NZ Govn ie us as tax payers to carry the risk...or pay the upfront cost to build buildings that will withstand shock beyond the economic cost to do so....ie its cheaper and safer to do it elsewhere.
In an economic / business cost scenario Chch is now the walking dead IMHO.
regards
From Scarborough.
We didn't lose power, though water was off in the neighbourhood until about 10am. Agree with Hugh P about a great year for the roses, though my garden now contains three seriously impressive new rocks, and two rather sad-looking fruit trees.
Most of the neighbours are still here, though in some families the odd person has moved out.
The wall on the seaward side of Whitewash Head Road appears to have sustained further damage, but no new fissures in the road surface.
Great set of pics here
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/photos/6184582/…
Cheers
Hugh - members of the National Party and the public will soon find out that they aren’t part of policies of the “Front Bench Gang” misguided by Key/ Brownlee and Joyce. Economic megalomania will lead up to more inequality, (youth)- unemployment, bureaucracy, environmental and social problems.
The “Front Bench Gang” is more interested to support the upper class and foreign capital.
The nation definitely needs Shearer to turn the page and bring back NZvalues for NZpeople.
Actually I'd say the opposite.....the core of National support is even more right of centre than the front bench....who pretend to be centre-ish to capture the swing voters....who are the ones that decide elections.
Ditto Labour, who's core is left wing....they both know they have to be in or about the centre to get elected....HC learned that from teh UK IMHO and JK has also learned it.
Now if Shearer actually stays in the centre left and goes green I'd finally vote Labour, because I only vote Green for the green stuff not their too far left for me social aspects.
Merry Xmas
Given how narrowly National won by , in seats ( they creamed Labour on votes ) ...... I'd say that Shearer only has to marginally improve on Phil Goff's performance to win in 2014 ......
..... Matthew Hooton suggests that a mere 10 000 vote swing would've put Labour-Greens et al in power in the last election ...
If Cunnliffe & co. can't get behind David Shearer to give Labour an election win in 2014 , then the whole bang lot of them ought ot be dumped & replaced thereafter ...
( Key needs to stop looking at the next election , as he did from 2008 towards 2011 , and get cracking now .. . He has 3 years only , the clock is ticking ) .
Steven- the “Front Benchers” of the national party in 2012, especially Brownlee, Joyce and Key are pushing for economic growth. Such ambitions plans certainly involve assets sales, deep sea drilling, open cast mining and other major often risky projects. I cannot see how this can be sustainable and succeed – long term.
What I can see is increased resistance not only from coalition partners, but within their own party for such plans.
The solutions for building in earthquake zones are there already, but they do cost. NZ is one of hte leaders in earthquake design, and learnt a lot from the kobe earthquakes.Things such as base isolation etc are one lateral resistant measure . It is used extensively in Wellington on the museum and old pariment buildings. But these are all about 'preserving life' and 'contents in the building' and not really about saving the building itself. The problem is that each time there is a quake, then a significant cost then must go back into the building to get it back up to standard. I don't think there is any easy solution for what is happening.
Hugh - why re-invent the wheel?
Somee of us have already designed and built lightweight, insulative, cheap, braced structures well in excess of what is needed, using materials well understood regulatory-wise.
I suggest your narrow agenda - which is something else entirely - clouds your clarity. You have known for two years that I've built such a house - but instead of coming to inspect, quetion and learn, you have chosen to make ignorant comments re caves.
Says a lot, to any intelligent reader, does that.
You are welcome - I'm just back from a 2-month holiday and am home for Dec/Jan - to visit anytime, and see how a structure can be built which rates 8 on the Homestar rating, cost me $50,000 and even now (labour inc) would be less than 100,000. As a bonus, it weight a mere 11 kg per sq.m of wall surface, and is braced beyond anything except perhaps an all-plywood structure.
Iconoclast - yes, they do. We have 'Sustainable House Day' visits, and tours which include the more questioning of the bureaucrats and lecturers. I do a lecture to the Polytech class every year, and they visit - includes a lot of inspectorial types.
Hugh - your query re finance of infrastructure is a biggie - and its where you and PB fall down big-time. While there was adequate energy, plenty of plastic and concrete and bitumen, it fell into two categories: estabishment, and maintenance. Developers could be leaned on to contribute a proportion (ideally 100%) of the initial establishment.
Then at some stage the new owner/occupier must be presumed to take over. Alkathene water systems, for instance, get to a point where yhey are better replaced in total, than trouble-shot / repaired. Typically, 20 years is about the cross-over time. It's no longer the developers problem, but it is the Council's, and the ratepayers.
Therefore, Councils will always have a different perspective - and a longer vision - than you 'developers'.
Here's your holiday reading: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
Some of us think that until there is a guaranteed replacement for alkathene, for that inevitable 20-year out replacement of the stuff you installed, then your proposed expansions are not sustainable, and shouldn't be allowed. You're simply expecting to profit from the future, expecting someone in 20 years time to solve a problem you failed to address by tunnel-vission, mantra repetition, and/or denial.
Steven - once, British Rail were given a good suggestion: adapt a bus to rail. Less mass, but the best of frictionless travel on gentle gradients within an existing system. By the time they finished designing the bus, they had a railcar....... Modular houses are good things (you could downsize when your kids left home, for instance) but it depends what the construction method was.
Folk in my sphere have been buying caravans for teenagers for years, I've seen some on their third round. Without the expense of an extra - temporary - room, the youngster gets some detatched space, and the resale recoups the outlay. Victoria may well be reinventing the railcar....
There was another 5.0 shake on the coast of Honshu in Japan. As I wrote earlier I think these shakes are related to Christchurch, I wouldn’t be surprised something is building up to shakes much stronger in these two regions.
I personally think it is absolutely ridiculous that the “Moon Man” isn’t invited/ accepted by science, considering the knowledge we have about seismological research.
There is a tiny correlation between moon position and small earthquakes but absolutely none with large earthquakes. You can not predict weather based upon what the moon is doing either, it's a perturbation of a chaotic system. These are simple statistical tests. Ken Ring has absolutely no contribution to make, although I think he honestly believes in what he is saying rather than being an outright charlatan.
Simon - in the field of “unpredictable science” it has proven in the past that Chance has played a big part in some of the most significant discoveries in science, a leading scientist claims.
Full article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/662694.stm
Do we believe him ?
Aftershocks still shaking
Christchurch will continue over the next few weeks, says a seismologist.
A magnitude 5.8 followed by a 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Lyttelton on Friday afternoon, causing liquefaction to once again erupt from the earth and leaving sewerage, water and power out of action in pockets of eastern Christchurch.
A series of "intense'' aftershocks have followed, and "hundreds and hundreds'' were recorded by GNS in the 24 hours following the two major quakes, said seismologist Bill Fry.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10775328
Aftershocks ?? What happen, in case other tremors of 6.5 + hit the coast of Honshu in Japan again and within 24 hours
Christchurch ? How much do we really know, but especially our so called professionals ?
Quite. He's a self-deluding astrologer and sloppy thinker, at the most charitable interpretation. Take something that happens regularly (moon cycles) and something that happens pretty much constantly (earthquakes of various sizes, especially in the more seismically active parts of the globe), and there are going to be weak correlations through sheer random chance. There are probably stronger correlations between earthquakes and when I roast chickens, because I do that about once a fortnight rather than once a month. Doesn't mean that there's any kind of cause and effect relationship between the two.
Have a look at that picture - all that money in Auckland – really scary I reckon !
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10775338
...wow and in Christchurch - rolling upstaires !
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6190561/Boxing-Day-bargain-hunters-go-shopping
That Albany article is tripe Walter, don't get sucked in by our useless media. That mall was always undersized in terms of carparking and it can be impossible to find a spot on any Saturday. I fail to see how there could have been excessive crowds when there is no where for them to park!
Another earthquake of 7.0 hit Japan' coast line near Tokyo today - no tsunami warning in place.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/6206635/Earthquake-jolts-Japan
see 26.12.11.7:44am
As I mentioned above, there is more evidence, when a strong earthquake hits the coast of Honshu Japan, 5.0+ earthquakes also hit Christchurch within 24 hours.
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
Another two earthquakes hit Japan (5.1/5.0 Honshu). Considering my observations an earthquake of similar magnitude will hit Christchurch in the next 12 - 24 hours.
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
..and here we are 5.0 at 2:20pm http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/latest.html
I'm sure this information could be useful ????
Another two earthquake in Japan Honshu (4.7/ 4.6)
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
Another 5.0+ in Christchurch in the next 12 hours ???
From my observation here: http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl (see my comments earlier) over many months a 5+ earthquake in Chch is due in the next 8 hours.
Well, it didn't happen.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6233715/4-1-quake-rattles-Christchurch
So much for the Honshu link.
Kate - yes you are right it didn’t happened this time. I’m wondering if the 2 earthquakes in Japan hours ago of 4.7 have an impact of 5+ in Christchurch today/ tonight. Anyway I’m following the pattern. We can only collect data and learn from it.
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
Two earthquakes in Japan Honshu of 5.2 and 5.7 magnitude
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
When nothing is happening in Christchurch (5.0+) in the next 12 - 18 hours, we don’t have a clear pattern and my earlier predictions are wrong.
Walter...I hate to rain on your party but Japan cops mag 5s on a regular basis...6 quite often and 7 is not unusual...when it reaches 8 they start to get a tad sick of it...9s will be one every 100 years or so....
It is a most unusual day in Japan when a quake above 4 does not hit somewhere.
Wolly - I’m aware that Japan’s earthquakes are much more frequently and stronger then in most other regions. Over the last 2 years it was just obvious to me that the region “Near the West coast of Honshu”
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
was often linked with strong earthquakes in Christchurch - afterwards. (See tonight)
Prepare for the post xmas chch rebuild rehash promises....expect early 2013 to feature widely followed by mid 2013 and in the end ...late 2013..
Me...I favour a whole new pitch to the spin with some goof starting the "well the rebuild has been going well" BS line.
Notice the way the media avoids discovering the Cantabs who moved asap to Ashburton and Rangiora or further afield....no more liquid factions for them to make piles out of.
Anyone seen English lately...I hear he is working out the finer points of a blather on why gst will be cut to 10% on new builds and how the IRD and councils consent records will fit in...seems the important bit is to spin the change as great govt policy from great ministers doing great things.
They haven't stuffed it up any worse than decades of local govt idiocy Hugh...the demand for gallons of whitewash to splosh over the criminal behaviour of the CCC over safety matters will see the freight trucks heading south loaded to the top for years.
Changing the subject a tad....try this for a view of the truth about where we are heading over the next few years... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32306.html
I expect the chaotic farce in the EU to lead the dive into deeper shite....with Beijing pulling the web plug to hide the explosion of social disorder...they hate disorder hugh...one billion disorderly very pissed off peasants...wow
Obama will try to BS and promise his way into another 4 years...that'll be one election to avoid...
My advice to savers is to stay close to your capital and do not stick it in one long term deposit....the OBR game is soon to decide on winners and losers...the bank bosses will be the winnners!
I see the local govt CEO going rate has now blasted north of half a million pa....couldn't operate without them Hugh...How many A&E nurses would that be?
I promised John not to pass on his number...sorry!
Too much Pavletich plonk being sunk I think Hugh....Roosevelt actually said.."The only thing to fear..is hear..myself"...and he was right! or was he a democrat!
We are not the authors anymore...they sit in banking boardrooms across the ditch....
As for the 1920s data on how great we were....look again...try to spot a non Brit in the show...fat chance...the last China man shot in hatred was in 06... main street wgtn...Judges comment.."Good shot old boy"
"so that we are in a better position to weather external shocks"
Well said, Hughey.
That's in the future, then? Not the past? We're agreed on that?
.Google images: club of rome graph.
It's on track so far, Hughey.
Those who decried it (note the timelines) did so "because it hasn't happened", and did so in the 1970's. Why? Ignorance? Fear? Belief? They were clearly too early to make a judgement, yet folk like Morgan continue to take that ignorant 'judgement' for 'gospel'.
How's that crowded 1/4 acre coming on? Everyone richer yet? Got more oil/gold/food? No? Maybe you haven't packed enough people in yet
:)
Club of Rome, Men of science who thought/think.....you on the other hand have no science or engineering it seems and cant see big pictures. You just bang on your single note drum time and time again....its a failure....there was a paradigm shift in energy in 2006....we reached peak....the global mess is here in its Malthusian entirety....
Woodlands is what? just another housing development.....using copious energy...wasting energy.
Gas fracking is a failure both environmentally and in terms of output across a field......its even beiong called a con....ie .claims that are unsubstantiated and possibly fraudalent. Let alone the mounting evidence of oits water table poisioning......
As for living in caves you seem to think humans can defeat nature.....sorry but we have done so using millenia of stored annual energy in mere decades to do so. ...which we cant keep on doing.
"A real environmentalist" LOL I bet one you'd keep in a corner and bring out to display occasionally....I can just see your ideal one now, someone who lets you build as you want, where you want and croons over the occasioanl tree....
Doesnt work like that.....tis simple, you as an a type and indeed cities like Chch are obsolete now....
regards
" Club of Rome " was a junket for has-been & pseudo-scientists , every bit as much as the global climate conferences have been a gigantic cushy yak-fest for porcine politicians ....
...... the real movers & shakers in this world are more often than not quietly beavering away in their offices , factories & labs , without wishing to hob-nob , nor to big-note themselves personally .
Someone has to say it: the Club of Rome Limits to Growth report is a valid scientific study, the results have NOT been disproven, its predictions are proving true.
It is also true that there are people on this site who don't like the message so prefer to shoot the messenger. Not cricket.
This is "faith" and the Club of Rome predictions were religious prophecy.
Science has nothing to do with it, the real scientists, i.e. the non politicised, non religious-Green ones, are spewing over all this nonsense.
This stuff is a worse threat to civilisation than the medieval papal theocracy. Like the medieval papal theocracy, it appeals to its own lofty authority and commands anathemas against actual facts and scientific observation (like Galileo's).
Even on a thread where one of the world's most under-populated and over-resourced countries is discussing the fate of an earthquake-hit city, these fanatics come ghoulling around with their moans of "we've run out of room" and "run out of resources" already.
How many others wish these guys would stick to walking the streets dressed in rags and sandals, with long beards, and wearing sandwich boards that say "the end of the world is nigh"? Because they are a pain in the butt on a serious economics and finance blog.
Here here. Well said, Phil. I agree with your comments completely and your comparing them to medieval papists and the damage that they wrought, is inspired.
What I find all the more frustrating is that a number of these contributors aren't even from New Zealand, but are a couple of self-exiled fruit loops from Europe who are high on this European nonsense. Did you know that over a quarter of the Green Party's MPs in this coming Parliament are actually not from New Zealand? Several of them haven’t even lived here for 20 years! I find that concerning. And I am left asking the question; just what New Zealand agenda will they be pursuing? My hunch is none.
David please – the B&B is only part of our business. My wife and I are highly skilled/ experienced in gold- leaf work for 40 years, including restoration work for museums, art galleries and antique dealers. We are successfully exporting our works of art all over the world. Gilders by trade do not exist here in New Zealand, unless they are “imported”.
We trained a real Kiwi, who has now his picture framing shop to make his own exclusive gilt (12 to 22 carat) picture- and mirror frames.
Many other trades, which not existed here in New Zealand are now here to stay and are extremely helpful for our economy and communities. Do you not think so ?
....and yes David – to offer our visitors with our B&B top services and affordable prices is a good contribution to our economy.
Wow, Kunst, we are so lucky to have you! You must have been right at the top of the list of skills that New Zealand is short of when you applied for your immigrant visa. I'm sure you must have been inundated with desperate and thankful calls from our museums and Iwi once you had arrived to teach them all how to re gild with gold their antique Mere, Kotiate and Hoe. Great stuff, Walter! You’re just the sort of skilled immigrant New Zealand needs to take it forward.
David B says: "What is frustrating is that MANY of these contributors aren't from New Zealand, but are a self-exiled fruit loops from Europe. Over a quarter of the Green Party's MPs in this coming Parliament are ALSO not from New Zealand? Several of them haven’t even lived here for 20 years yet" (I agree and excuse the sub-editing)
Says it more eloquently than I have been known to say it in the past.
In a December post I stated, when muscling into another country, some important behavioural characteristics to learn are to, keep your mouth shut, don't complain, don't tell us how you do it better, assimilate, learn the history of the place, and leave your teatowel, burqua, hijab, niqab, alpine horn and leather shorts behind, get a moko, and buy a piu piu.
I would be happy as in cave if it were dry and safe and the temp a constant 18 while outside it reached 50c or minus 40c or blew 100mph frequently.....want a bit more room..dig it out...even better if there were a spring to be had.....tunnel away to reach a communal space and maybe gardens with a solar top to suck in the rays...
Coober Pedy comes to mind...
Hugh - you sound a little stressed.
Please take the nonsense rhetoric out of it - the Luddite and the Malthusian that you chant over and over, and actually address the math, the physics, and the graph. Also, up-thread I told you about my house, but you persist with the 'cave' comments. Unacceptable Hughey.
What you demonstrate is ignorance, a common bedfellow of arrogance. Given the number of times you have decided to not do any homework, it's 'wilful ignorance', in your case. Calling people clowns, while demonstrating a clear inability to learn - you had me humming "don't bother, they're here"....
If the population of the planet doubles, the chances of people being impacted by a 'quake doubles too. That goes for every other natural calamity - so get used to expecting more such news.
Yes, Chch is a sad thing, but it reflects arrogance in the pushing for, and allowance of, subdivisions on the areas which should have been left vacant. Councils don't do that alone - they are pushed, lobbied, ridiculed until they do. Who did that, Hughey?
Your comment re 'lost control of costs', is due to the limits to growth that you deny. The re-build will be attempted amidst a lessening availability of underwriting, of energy, of materials. It's better planned for than ignored, which suggest that your approach is going to be increasingly irrelevant. Get used to it.
An accelerometer, by the way, could be built for about $10, and could be a school project. I'd suggest a suspended weight and a series of 'readers' (infra-red LED interrupts come to mind). Then it would be a simple matter to log those interrupted, against time. Crude, and could certainly be refined, but you'd have 99% of it .
One of the ironies I have commented on several times before, is that this notion that "we can't sustain any more growth", seems to have hit every possible size of city at about the same time.
It is not as if you can predict that cities will say "we can't afford any more growth" when they reach a certain size - it seems to be more a question of when they succumb to a particular ideology.
It is also noticeable that cities with no urban growth constraints, low and stable urban land prices, affordable housing, and high discretionary incomes (because there is plenty left after paying for "housing") seem to have no problem financing new infrastructure, regardless of their size.
I said:
".....It is also noticeable that cities with no urban growth constraints, low and stable urban land prices, affordable housing, and high discretionary incomes (because there is plenty left after paying for "housing") seem to have no problem financing new infrastructure, regardless of their size."
Like, DUH to you too.
Interesting that you cant defeat the maths, data, information and logic put forward by "malthusians" so revert to claiming ppl who you dont agree with are nutters.....yeah right.
"live and let live" we are all in the same test tube Hugh...so when one group screws up the test test we are all in deep doo doo...
Now if your group all lived on another planet, yep no problem.
regards
".......it reflects arrogance in the pushing for, and allowance of, subdivisions on the areas which should have been left vacant. Councils don't do that alone - they are pushed, lobbied, ridiculed until they do. Who did that...."?
And who is stopping the rebuilding of Christchurch today, on whatever land, anywhere, that insurance assessors might regard as safe?
Who is "taking the opportunity presented by the earthquakes, to rebuild a new compact city based on light rail"?
Whose grand plan "dream for Christchurch" got "4000 submissions in favour"? Too bad for the few hundred thousand who don't have the time to waste on farcical anti-democratic "community consultation".
And you yadda, yadda, yadda on about developers being "responsible"?
Hugh is being restrained. He shouldn't have to put up with this stuff. Developers are like Jews in Nazi Germany, for all the respect they get. They are actually the number one victim of planning rackets and inflated land prices. Blaming developers is like blaming bread manufacturers for high prices when the government "licenses" a few cronies to grow wheat in limited quantities, and the price that the bread makers are charging is just passing on the inflationary effects on their raw materials.
It is way overdue for people to start putting the blame where it really belongs. The Commission of Inquiry into housing affordability has made a start in the right direction. Now if we can just get Hugh to run for and win the ChCh Mayoralty......
I took a trip to ChCh a couple of years ago. Before the Quakes and just before the GFC.
It was supposed to be a casino binge, but somehow got roped into a dinner with these horrid people who acted like they arrived with Captain Cook on the Endeavour. An especially stupid cow asked me if i played sport, I said yes, JACKS. Jack Daniels and Black Jack. She proceeded to tell me about her daughters boarding school. So I left the dinner. 30% of people at the table were property developers, and they are now precisely 100% bust. That's evolution for you.
It is a sad fact that property development under conditions of racketeering and "gaming"
created by urban planners, attracts a certain cowboy type, while the wise old hands either quit, or scale back their activities and ride out the storm in hopes of a saner era to return.
It is ridiculous to lump Hugh Pavletich in with Mark Hotchin or Terry Serepisos.
As for old man Hubbard, I am inclined to think he left the running too much to young upstarts. But Ollie Newland isn't young, and he doesn't seem to be of Hugh Pavletich's type.
I think that moa man's problem is that he isn't in the " dress sarkle " .....
.. .. I went to a " do " in Ohoka once , and my lack of Range Rover and Scottish designer gumboots had me pegged as one not within the hallowed halls of " dress sarkle " ...... so I was informed ......
...... what the feck is a " dress sarkle " , anyhoo ?
"......And who is stopping the rebuilding of Christchurch today, on whatever land, anywhere, that insurance assessors might regard as safe?
Who is "taking the opportunity presented by the earthquakes, to rebuild a new compact city based on light rail"?
Whose grand plan "dream for Christchurch" got "4000 submissions in favour"? Too bad for the few hundred thousand who don't have the time to waste on farcical anti-democratic "community consultation".
And you yadda, yadda, yadda on about developers being "responsible"?....."
PLUS: WAS IT DEVELOPERS who designate dingy old buildings as "heritage", leaving their owners with a property on which no rental stream sufficient to pay for earthquake strengthening is possible? (Central government should pass a law saying that "heritage" designation buildings are to be earthquake strengthened at local government expense).
AND: who is obsessed with "contiguous" urban growth for the sake of urban growth containment - council planners, or developers? What happens in cities where they do not have this planning mania, is that areas unsuitable for building get "leapfrogged". But to our planners, "leapfrog" development is an even dirtier word than "earthquake risk".
"It's a suspected sinkhole under the house and we haven't got a clue why it came through. All the carpets are stinking wet. It stinks as well."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10775407
The very best reason NOT to build within a bulls roar of the area proving to be a swamp...
Which begs the question...where in the chch region is the land 100% not swamp.
" where in the chch region is the land 100 % not swamp "
...... Christchurch International Airport , all that lovely solid greywacke stone land from John's / Russley Road , across to the stopbanks of the Waimakariri River ..... an area about one third the size of the city , and all unavailable for subdivision , because of the airport ....
And the airport is owned by ...... hmmmm ? ...... the Christchurch City Council , who else !
Don't be so sure Gummy....bet you a bucket of swamp mud, that alluvial deposit you speak of has crap beneath it and that the faults beneath have yet to snap and move as the others are doing...don't spit the dummy Gummy when the airport one day splits in two and spews silt up in fountains...
Justifiability for hope.
I think to be in a position like Christchurch people are right now, it is understandable they are supporting all efforts to maintain their assets/ infrastructures and what they love so much.
If the point is coming to change their minds only nature will tell. How many more hits can they take until human nature says pack and go – not easy.
----
For me as an outsider I’m not convinced about scientists, who say we are going through a stage of aftershocks. I think stronger earthquakes are coming again.
...we just don't know Wolly otherwise we would be on Mars or Gliese 581g.
http://www.jacehallshow.com/blog/the-top-20-most-livable-planets/
...ask Brandson for a one way ticket.
Personally Wolly, I'd prefer the swamp.
Areas with large quantities of peat such as Marshlands/Papanui had near zero liquifaction. The worst hit areas are generally sandy near the surface.
My home sits on 3m of peat, was relatively close to the Feb/June and Dec epicentres and suffered absolutely no land damage. Properties many kilometers further away even in the north west such as around Windermere Road, Gardiners Road, and Northwood Bouelvard had significant liquefaction with many homes written off.
The peat probably acts as a filter to anything from further below.
Fluvial and estaurine silts seem the ones to avoid.
The reality is that this is not a ChCh problem. It is a NZ problem. A M8+ or M9+ (if the Alpine Fault goes in one hit) would liquefy river valleys, plains and plateaus around the South Island (including Blenheim!).
Inangahua and Murchison caused liquefaction in Westport and river valleys, the Amuri quake caused liquefaction in the Hanmer basin, the Cheviot quake caused liquefaction in Nth Canterbury.
Invercargill is prone (built on an estaury), as is Dunedin (on a silted and reclaimed harbour), so too are the reclaimed parts of Wellington City (containing most of the cities highrises) and the Hutt Valley. And not to mention Auckland, Taranaki and Central NI built on active volcanoes.
Christchurch's problems will be dealt with. The rest of NZ is just a ticking time bomb.
Well, that's really going to cheer us all up thanks! (Hope you had a good Xmas).
I also think it is foolish to try and rebuild Chch in its current location. It'll never be what it was again anyway, and what's the point when we're still getting large quakes 16 months after the first one and everybody knows the land is not suitable for building in such conditions. But then again, how do you relocate such a large town...
4-year-old has just called me to look at a crack in the house, great (only cosmetic though, small crack in the plaster over the Hebel). It was there after last year's 7.1 but as hubby pointed out it's not getting any less visible, just the opposite in fact.
I'm not surprised - of course Key/Brownlee/ Joyce & CO Ltd. have important and urgent business in Wellington to push through - to please their top 15% Kiwi buddies plus foreign investors.
First to convince front benchers, then party members and finally coalition partners - against the public interest of the other 85% Kiwis, who are opposed.
Just off the top of my Gummy cranium , Hugh , I'd be pushing for Chch to expand towards the Waimak River , and also south around Rolleston / Burnham . It's thin stoney ground , anyway , low farm productivity , generally . ... Save the rich Marshland soils for top quality vegie production .
Simply one of the most sensible suggestions of all time.
Rebuild most of ChCh somewhere else.
Furthermore, the planners running the city of Wellington need to be sacked, NOW, and Wellington needs to completely reverse its planning shibboleths for the sake of disaster risk mitigation alone. Housing affordability would also be solved.
It is a question whether NZ can handle the entirely predictable once-in-a-century big one that will hit Wellington one day, especially when the planners have concentrated everything; population, business activity, etc to the maximum possible extent, right on fault lines and in the path of Tsunamis. Not to mention hundreds of "heritage designations" that have stripped property owners of value and left them with earthquake strengthening "responsibilities" that they have not a cat's chance in hell of actually paying for, given the dingy unappealing, low-rental building they have been stuck with.
The totally unrealistic, anti-business attitude of the Wgtn city and regional council differ only in magnitude from history's thugs who ran and in some cases still run communist countries. When the time comes, you can bet they will make scapegoats out of the businesses men for all the dead bodies. Never mind the heritage racket and the inner city living racket that they run in an effort to prop up their "utopia" after decades of malinvestment already thanks to the market distortions that they are responsible for.
Firstly, we do know where the previously most unsafe spots are. You are not justifying concentrating urban form at those locations, surely?
Secondly, lower density and greater population dispersion is simply sensible disaster mitigation regardless of where the next unexpected disaster hits.
I somehow suspect that the cost of the periodic disasters we can expect to hit our over-concentrated population, can be calculated to be higher than the costs of "sprawl".
Of course not, but if there are (or in future are) engineering solutions for this land then why not reuse it?
If land prices hadn't been bid up by the issues you talk about we wouldn't be distracted by this relocation talk. So in many ways it's a symptom.
The land price would simply reflect the risk (ie, be cheaper or used for cows etc) but if you wanted to self-insure why not. Admittedly I potentially overlook the costs of providing utility services, but long term not insurmountable.
Mostly I was objecting to ideas of relocation, when we have plenty of sunk cost in terms of current infrastructure that remains unaffected and in good order.
And I never understand the idea of moving people closer to the Waimak given that I think it preferrable to give these river systems a wide berth Plenty of cities encroach too close to major rivers, and then later regret it.
I'm more in favour of using tech and engineering to overcome problems than some idea of there being any particular ideal locations. As you say if land wasn't bid up the way it is, individuals would have more money available for such solutions.
Research by the NZ Institute of Geological Research and Nuclear Science records that between 1869 and 1988 there have been 12 earthquakes bigger than 6.0 on the Richter Scale within 150 kms of Christchurch. Two of these were 7.0 and larger. (It is worth reading the whole report to get the full picture.) In spite of reports recommending that ECAN carry out major risk assessment studies as required by the RMA, none of these recommendations weren followed up.
ECan's Regional Policy Statement (RPS), Chapter 16, begins with some promise:
Chapter 16 – Natural Hazards.
Natural hazards in Canterbury can be ranked by the potential damage that could result, for example, taken on an annual basis. Limited information suggests that the most severe regionally significant natural hazards in the region are, in order of importance:
(1) Large magnitude earthquake affecting Christchurch.
(2) Extreme drought.
(3) Waimakariri River flooding of Christchurch and Kaiapoi.
(4) Major tsunami affecting southern Pegasus Bay and Banks Peninsula, or Timaru coastline.
Other natural occurrences of importance include flooding, fire, wind, snowfall, landslip, erosion and sedimentation (including dune build-up), but the relative impact of these, and what degree of management, if any, is warranted, has yet to be determined.
But remarkably, or unremarkably, the Christchurch City Council’s translation of the Regional Council’s policies into their District Plan turns the ECan’s risk rankings on their head.
The City's District Plan’s section on Natural Hazards reads:
CCCDP 3.4 Natural hazards
Within Christchurch there is risk from a number of natural hazards including:
• possible sea level rises;
• erosion of the coastline and rivers;
• erosion of the Port Hills;
• flooding from the rivers and the coast;
• damage caused by high winds;
• earthquakes; and
• fires in rural areas....
… The Regional Council has considerable knowledge about river and coastal processes that give rise to the major natural hazards.
But the Christchurch CIty planners dismiss earthquakes on the grounds that they “hardly ever happen”, while floods are frequent. Furthermore, a recent Plan Change deleted the section requiring a 50 metre setback from the Heathcote river which was intended to “minimize the risk to buildings and infrastructure from liquefaction.”
Someone got that really wrong.
Surely, any normal risk assessment must recognize that earthquakes are potentially catastrophic and come without warning. Rising sea levels on the other hand are not a problem and indeed the tectonic plate movements are more likely to determine sea levels in one hundred years time than sea level rising from supposed Anthropogenic Global Warming.
So why do our Councils quite consistently rank rising sea levels as such a high risk natural hazard, given the much more serious and more likely immediate hazards we face from our location on the “Pacific Ring of Fire”?
Once again our plan writers have made their own determination of what constitutes “an inconvenient truth” rather than the real risk of the “truths” the City is currently having to deal with.
I can only conclude that Council’s officials and advisors have accepted the mantra that “Anthropogenic Global Warming is the most serious risk facing life on the planet”. This deep-seated belief means that any hazards connected to the AGW theory must pose the greatest risk. To rank earthquakes above rising sea levels means accepting that Al Gore, Missy Higgins, Danny deVito, and Cate Blanchett may have got it wrong. And what would our own Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences know?
These errors must be added to the massive costs imposed by those who are deeply committed to the IPCC theories of AGW.
But more fools us for writing these scares into law.
Thank you for posting that, Owen. I'm speechless. The substitution of sea rise levels for earthquakes in the assessment of the natural hazards that are faced by Christchurch is despicable, and it is disgusting. This greening of government is fast becoming, quite frankly, a perversion.
.... as far as I'm aware , no old folks' homes have fallen over ...... So no need to worry about Winston ,
It's a shame to waste a damn fine batch of eathquakes , really
Not a single grey-haired vote to be gleaned from the whole shebang.....
...... such a waste . Such a terrible terrible waste .......
Back to the whine box , Winnie .
The MSM are right behind warmist theology - Fairfax owns a third of Earth Hour for example. They dutifully report the crap from the IPCC and wilfully ignore anything which undermines the "We're all gonna die" mantra. Hockey stick co-author Ray Bradley privately admits in the latest climategate emails released that he has serious doubts about the graph - which formed the basis for govt policy worldwide.
Bet you won't see this in any mainstream newspaper.
And yes local authorities are riddled with tofu munching power wielding warmists.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2901439/
97% scientific consensus, do you really think this is a conspiracy?!
Here's your 97%
Close examination of the source of the claimed 97% consensus reveals that it comes from a non-peer reviewed article describing an online poll in which a total of only 79 climate scientists chose to participate. Of the 79 self-selected climate scientists, 76 agreed with the notion of AGW. Thus, we find climate scientists once again using dubious statistical techniques to deceive the public that there is a 97% scientific consensus on man-made global warming; fortunately they clearly aren’t buying it.
Discussion here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/02/scientific-consensus-on-global-warming-sample-size-79/
Yes. This is a bit like Mugabe winning the election by 97%.
Because the conspirators control "who gets published". See the "Climategate" emails.
That study analyses "authors who are currently getting published".
The "consensus" always has been a big fat lie.
Dozens of the IPCC's own expert reviewers, dissent from every report's findings and are ignored. This means that "peer review" is also a big fat lie.
Senator James Inhofe has been collecting a data base of authoritative scientists who dissent (most of whom are outside the IPCC process), and it now numbers in the hundreds. The IPCC Report is actually the work of a few dozen, (at most) "lead authors" who were appointed at the outset on highly crony-ist grounds. Some of them were actually merely students of the others at the time. (The book "The Delinquent Teenager who was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Scientist", is about this).
The "2500 reviewers" IPCC claim relates mostly to non climate science specialists - there are less than 400 involved in the climate science section of the report, and as I said above, the dissenters among them get ignored.
There is also no "alarmist" equivalent of the "OISM Petition". Over 30,000 "skeptical" qualified signatories.
On most of the East Coast of NZ the sea level is stable or falling because of the Tectonic plate sliding up over the Pacific Plate
There is no such thing as global sea level any more than there is a standard height for an adult male or female.
So before even talking abour risk of rising sea level and putting it at the top of the list one would have expected someone to actually measure what is happening on that Coast.
Sea level rise from AGW is almost certainly the lowest level of risk from natural hazard. Tsunami are much higher.
I know you always agree with government science organisations because of your praise (above) for GNS. So why do you disagree with scientists from NIWA on sea level rise (and scientists around the world for that matter)?
Sea level rise is a real hazard that we know about that is happening now and is continuing to happen. Many of our citiies and towns and much of our infrastructure will be affected. It is forseeable and can be planned for now.
Or we can justcontinue to inhabit your denial universe.
The list of hazards you quoted from the Christchurch District Plan -- was it a list ordered from most certain risk over (say) the next hundred years or was it just a list? I didn't see where it said the list was order. Why do you think it is then?
Where does one start? My comments about sea level rise are standard and unchallenged by scientists and statisticians. Only the IPCC and NIWA and our legislators have spread the canard that there is a standardised, single sea level rise at every point aroung the globe.
The sea level at any place varies of course every day with the tides, and is made more complex by the neap and spring tides. Other actions that vary the sea level at any given location are ocean oscillations (as during el Nino and El Nina events) which are like water surging from one end of the bathtub to the other, and the subsidence of sea side land at ports (where many of the gauges are) due to the weight of construction and the pumping out of water from the natural foundation.
But the biggest movement in sea level in many places is from the upwards and downwards movement of tectonic plates. For example the Scottish sea levels are falling as the UK plate is still rebounding from the lost ice of the Ice Age. On the other hand the isles are rotating around an East West Axis so that the land on the South of England is sinking and hence sea levels are rising more than normal. The whole European plate is rebounding which is why the Dutch are not fretting.
This means that at any specific location the only way to know what is happening is to go out and measure it – but it requires some very sophisticated equipment. And 100 year forecasts are only as good as our ability to predict earthquakes.
To just pick up global figures from the IPCC or any other authority is either foolishness or encouraged by some underlying agenda. A minor shock at Whakatane some years ago raised the plate 6mm over one week – that was five years of sea level rising compensated for in one week. (Depending on what "global measure you choose to use.)
The sea levels at Tuvalu are NOT rising. They have problems with sea water incursion but that is a result of their own poor management of their own land, and reefs, much as they would like to blame it on others and demand reparations.
The sea level and land levels at Christchurch will be quite different now from what they were prior to these round of quakes and shocks – expecially given their location. Time to do some measurements of the real world and stop referring to computer models of climate which are proving to be as reliable as the ones used by the banks to forecast our financial futures.
Well said Owen,
The thermocatastrophists have no answer to this.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/15/message-to-maldives-president-your-claims-are-bs/
What pious carbon footprint B/S.
So do you belong to the 1% of "green" cornucopians riding on everyone's back?
You clearly don't like being told the truth and use smear tactics to divert readers from anything that exposes your misanthropic religion. You must bore the living crap out of your family.
This post sponsored by BIG HELIUM.
HUH? It is the rest of us who should be asking YOU that. What land banker/property investor is paying you to spread Maluthusian gloom and doom to provide cover for their racket?
Hey, if George Soros and the Rockefellers do it, why wouldn't this be a likely explanation for the ubuiquity of people like PDK on forums like this?
Moa Man - chuckle..... I think you're on to it.
OMG - As I have mentioned before, spinmeistery 101 says "throw what you are guilty of yourself, at the other party. They'll have to disassociate themselves, but some of the mud will stick, and the spinner will appear to be on the front foot. AND- you haven't answered the question, which means you're a paid lackey.
No the only one around here, though, eh?
"Follow the money".
Who needs to prove they aren't being "paid to lie"?
The people defending the rip-off. Simple.
There's no money in attacking it. Unless someone could co-ordinate every as-yet-first-home-buyer in the country and get a donation from each of them.
And as is typical (public choice theory discusses this) little of this ever happens when reform is in the interests of the many, but a lot of money and resources are devoted by the minority of "big winners" in these rent seeking, wealth transferring rackets.
The classic quote on all this: Mason Gaffney, 1964:
“…..To the dominant landowning oligarchy, few limitations on competition
commend themselves with quite the same force of logic as limitations on the entry of new lands into urban use. It is therefore no accident that urban growth containment is the most respectable and salable kind of planning in many quarters. It harmonizes all too mellifluously with the interest of a dominant class. But from the viewpoint of social economy, of other interest groups, of the general welfare, of the region, state, and nation, and even of most urban landowners in their roles as workers and capitalists, negative containment is an instrument of monopoly exploitation…..”
http://www.masongaffney.org/publications/E3Containment_policies.CV.pdf
Soooo......follow the money. Who on this site is defending this, and who is attacking it and exposing it?
How about some real scientists sites instaed of voodoo ones like watts?
Oh right there are none....
Maybe ask him why he didnt attend the Congressional hearing on AGW, he was invited....oh maybe because he's put on oath and they can ask anything...like his funding.....or his qualifications....
etc
etc
Instead he ran away.
regards
Are you making that up? The only references to these hearings that I can find on Anthony Watts' own blog, is that he is pleased that Roger Pielke and John Christy were invited, and expresses regret that "our own Dr Willis Eschenbach" could not get an invite.
There is no reference at all to Watts himself being invited. His organisation did make a written submission.
Owen I suggest you start by correctly reporting what NIWA and others actually say about sea level rise.
There is a global average rate of sea level rise due to warming of oceans. It is caused by thermal expansion. Melting of ice is contributing as well. That rate is increasing.
No one (other than you) is claiming that this average rate is the rate of sea level change at every place in the world.
This rise is in additional to other relative changes due to land rise and fall (rising often due to re-settling after the last ice age).
Then there are cyclical drivers such as tides and El Nino/La Nina.
These other location and time specific changes plus the expansion of the oceans because of warming of the water (and ice melt) give a place's relative sea level change.
The analysis by NIWA for the major east coast of New Zealand ports (using tide guage data) is that sea level change is roughly the same as the global average i.e. the ups and downs due to other factors roughly balance out.
That is not to say that there aren't places around New Zealand where the trend is increased rate of rise or a relative lowering due to the other processes (land rise and fall for example) are different.
And the fact that sea level rises have been slowing down over all this time..........if you lived on the water's edge in the year 2000BC, your property would be underwater much sooner than if you lived on the water's edge in 1000BC; and so on ad infinitum. In the Year 2000AD we have the lowest prospects of future inundation of any humans of specific time segments so far.
Property Developer = Global Warming denialist?
In the beginning the libertarian Developer created the heavens and the earth. 2 Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep, and the Spirit of the libertarian Developer was hovering over the waters.
3 And the libertarian Developer said, “Let there be light,” and there was light. 4 the libertarian Developer saw that the light was good, and he separated the light from the darkness. 5 the libertarian Developer called the light “day,” and the darkness he called “night.” And there was evening, and there was morning—the first day.
6 And the libertarian Developer said, “Let there be a vault between the waters to separate water from water.” 7 So the libertarian Developer made the vault and separated the water under the vault from the water above it. And it was so. 8 the libertarian Developer called the vault “sky.” And there was evening, and there was morning—the second day.
My wife is directly involved in insurance in regards to the earthquake, nearly 70 percent are taking the money and walking away, not interested in rebuilding at all in CHC. There has been a exodus, but as the money has been slow in comming, once it starts to flow then I feel the exodus will just keep raising. It's a shame, but you can't blame people especially those in 60 plus stage would you risk buying again in CHC knowing with each aftershock you back at the start trying to get damage fixed.
FCM - the irony is Christchurch has a unique opportunity to right it's wrongs, and to be sustainable/resilient in a way no intact city has.
The future is clearly not one involving CBD's in the traditional style - skyping, phone conferencing and escalating transport and rental costs will see to that. (Rental via insurance and construction costs, not via land scarcity). Folk are more and more 'working from home', and powerdown says things will get more local.
The future also says local food, farmers-market type hubs, and sustainable housing.
Which is where I clash with the dinosaurs here.
They are arguing from a perspective of personal advantage first, and the 'tangled web they weave' originates from that skewed base-line.
From here on in, they have to be parried. There are genuine cases of genuine folk who get the future wrong by anticipating the past (Collingwood and his acorns, for instance) but these folk are actually refusing to question, investigate and learn. Typically, such types revert to repetitive chanting and bluster, as we see here with HughP.
I can't imagine a worse e[pitaph, but there you go. Takes all sorts.....
Oh, so you agree with the Parker point of view, "now's our opportunity to build a new compact city and a light rail system to get round on"?
You are totally incoherent. Half the time you are advocating lifestyle block living, growing your own food, rearing your own chooks and hogs, using wind turbines and water wheels, using "passive solar", recycling and composting, etc - and I agree with you on this.
Then you turn round and argue in support of policies that force people to pay $300,000 for a tenth of an acre, instead of a fair price that any fool can calculate would be around $60,000 for a whole acre.
Why? Why? Why?
Would you like it if planners had forbidden you to build your sustainable house and live the way you do?
Yes I would like to see this addressed.
It's all very well for people to live off energy from their backyard waterwheel, but given that not everyone has a stream in their backyard, space for solar panel or lives in a windtunnel, it makes life difficult. Hence you have to build a large powerstation on a river somewhere.
But the second you announce your intentions of doing that the cries of unsustainability come up and out come all the people who do have streams in their backyard or the space and money to afford solar panels.
R217 -
What's wrong with living on the hydro power currently generated?
You don't even contemplate that, do you?
Why not - you advocating the need to grow? And at the same time suggesting that the growth needs physical placement?
An oxymoron, I'm afraid.
You canna' have both.
OH - and about 'space for panels'. My house did, and still can, run on a 50 watt PV panel. It's perhaps 500mm by 500mm. And even if you need more (most folk seem to think they do) there's always a roof.- it's quite a good mounting for same.
Also why can't we exploit hydro power more extensively? Even if we upgrade existing turbines and generators to latest tech we can generate more power from the same volume of water. I can appreciate (if not entirely accept) your arguments regarding fossil fuel growth, but doesn't hydro have different dynamics given that the energy is essentially free, (on a human timescale).
I accept that you can use roof space for solar panels etc, and perhaps it is not the probelm of 'space' per-se given that NZ isn't exactly short of land, but it's not clear that the economics for individual households in residential area to run on PV solar panels stack up. For water heating in some areas you can certainly make a strong case.
But if you look at Australia, their solar industry is struggling without the generous feed-in-tariffs that had been showered on the population by state govts until they realised how much it blew the budget out. This was never justifiable though as it was effectively a transfer from low wealth individuals (who have to pay higher retail power bills) to subsidise those with the wealth to buy solar panels and enjoy the subsidy.
Technology may change the economics in the future however.
yeah - from pdk,steven & Co comments its clear that the shaken Chch residents priorities should be focused on world overpopulation , peak oil and rising sea levels. Not trifling around with minor things like smashed homes , dusty muddy bumpy roads, EQC payouts or whether they have a job after the holidays finish. Worry about the Ozone not the red Zone people !
Whanau Ora or Rangi-Ora , Whanau or Far North - time to retreat to the caves - but I dont know if Id want to be in one in a 6.3
Powerdown, I share 90% of your expressed views. Don't know what others you may have.
Those "Working from home" already total more than those who use public transport in most regions. Trouble is the stat can include farmers etc.
However, Telecommuting is the new force for reducing congestion. Of the 50,000 employees of Sun Microsystems some 30,000 telecommute. That's a hell of lot commuters who don't use the roads or rail on any given day.
Then you toss in "remote office centres" and you counter the need for socialisation. IN fact remote office centres are a better matchmaking environment than the office because the courting partners don't work for the same boss.
Read Bulacker.
HOwever, we all operate from personal advantage. Why would I make a choice to my disadvantage.
But we each have our own calculus of preference. So if someone writes a one plan for all a huge number of the "all" wiil be coerced into making choices against their will.
IT does not work.
McShane - you should read up on gene-selection, altruism and selfishness. From Darwin via J.B.S.Haldane to George Price.
The problem is that in microcosm, few if any societies have chosen sustainability, when faced with shitting-in-their-own-nest demise. Most have chosen to accelerate their self-destruction.
For the first time, this is happening on a global scale. It would be nice to think we'd be having an intelligent debate about that, and it has to be the backdrop to the future of Chch - indeed anywhere.
Your 'calculus of preference', presumes an informed populace, but folk like you, Gonzo, PB and Hughey here, (what are you, half the Act party?) skew the truth with spin - so we don't get to being 'informed'.
We get propaganda'd consumption, and told to strive for growth on a finite planet.
I have those texts and of course Mat Ridley.
The trouble it that my understanding of sustainability is different to yours.
That is why it is much beloved of politicians – they can promote sustainability comfortable in the knowledge that everyone will hear the word and translate it into whatever they want it to mean.
Carbon neutrral calculations are impossible because to change the outcome you only need to change the system boundary.
No one person or committee knows how to make a pencil or what to charge of it based on input costs. If do not know how to make it how do we calculate its carbon footprints.
And if we cannot calculate the carbon footprint of the draughstman's pencil how can we possiible calculate the footprint of the whole building.
I presume you aware that some award winning sustainable buildings were found, after completion and occupancy to consume more energy than the standard equivalent.
Natural resources are infinite because with the exception of meteoric iron and alluvial gold they all human inventions – and there is no limit to human inventiion.
The unconvenient truth is that renewable sustainable energy is proving to be an economic and environmental failure.
The world's population will go into overall decline around the middle of this century (wealth is the best contraceptive, followed by female literacy) and resource use for unit of output will continue to decline. None of the matter used is lost or destroyed - it is just transformed, and if necessary we can recover it.
McShane - total bollocks.
Natural Resources are neither infinite, not a human invention. Whoever told you that was lying. You - at best - can be said to be repeating the lie.
Then you get all tangled up trying to 'value' things, hamstrung from the outset by assuming that an artificial construct (money) is the yardstick.
If no energy is expended and thus no goods/services proffered, there is no underwrite for money. If issued as debt, it would stay as debt. If usury was charged, the borrower (or whoever held the parcel when the music stopped) would default. This was always going to happen, and is what we see globally now.
The worlds population will go into decline not through 'wealth', but through resource depletion - and it won't be pretty. An intelligent society could anticipate and at least attempt to be proactive; a dumb one believes horseshit like ' natural resources are a human invention'.
Your grasp of physics in the final para, is staggering. You should study energy, before making such silly statements. Start with the solar energy required (and the inefficiency compensated for by time) to give us the 200-year go-to-whoa fossil-fuel sprint.
"resource use for unit of output will continue to decline". Output of what, exactly? You one of those GDP nutters?
http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/152297/false-gospel-according-gdp?page=0%2C1
There are definitely politically motivated scientific charlatans. The IPCC, the East Anglia research centre, GISS, and our own NIWA are infested with them. Fiddlers of figures, fiddlers of data, abusers of scientific method and process - it is these people who should be the subject of show trials, not the alleged "climate criminals" who are in fact the modern equivalent of the Jew under Naziism - scapegoated by a system of lies.
LOL.....yeah right...........says he who shows no engineering or scientific know how but diss's anyone who's science doesnt agree with PB's political outlook...
Sure put climate scientists on trial because that will do nothing but prove the case for AGW and show up the deniers as the charlatans they are.
PS The now Republican Congress wanted to do this and it fell flat on its face.....some other deniers threatened court actions....nothing came of it........they dont want to put their case into the light of the courts because they need to show a high level of proof when they can show little or none.
regards
Utter rubbish, completely the opposite of the truth.
There is not a chance of getting an ETS or carbon tax thru the US Congress today.
The Obama Administration has tried to do an end run around the democratically elected forums by regulating CO2 thru the EPA.
This attempt is mired in Court challenges, and it is the alarmists who are scared of honest Court hearings.
The whole CAGW case rests on fraudulent science from a small IPCC related cabal.
I sugest your reaad David Kear''s paper in the Geoscience Society of NZ newsletter of March 2011.
David is a former Director of the NZ Geological Survey and former Director General of the DSIR.
His paper "Public Relations vs Science – a Major Dillemma Today" tells some interesting stories about the beat-ups relating to sea levels etc.
He reminds us that the IPCC and their PR friends have finally has to accept that the long term global average rise in sea level is and has been about 125 ml per century. Yet the IPCC etc insisted from 1992 that its forecast of a 1.4 metre rise by 2025 was correct even though this assumed a rate of rising four times higher than assumed by all those actually working in the field.
He then tells of a NIWA survey of the seabed off the Eastern Bay of Plenty in 2006 intended to help with earthquake prediction. (One has to wonder how this fits into their field of expertise.)
Anyhow the sorry story of the PR programme designed to strike fear into the populace reported that NIWA had found 152 more eathquakes that had been recognised earlier – a ten fold increase. No substance to this claim at all.
Kear concludes that NIWA's "use of PR methodology suggests strongly that NIWA's PR advice on all coastal and global matters must be considered as highly suspect."
I have no reason not to take his advice.
In his letter Owen Kear states "The crucial question is -- where is the simple clear scientific evidence that relates an increase in CO2 to warming? Here I shall look at Global Warming's key points as they seem to me now."
Where does he look for this scientific evidence? The next sentence rules out looking up any recent science: "I do not intend to delve again into the literature. I researched all of that for a paper I published over 50 years ago...."
How then does he know about any changes in scientifc knowledge in the last 50 plus years?
By guessing what Al Gore's film says (not by watching it), by relying on 1987 headlines in the New Zealand Herald (not reading the source material), by slagging off NIWA's geological work as it was reported in the local Bay of Plenty newspaper (not reading the scientific papers), by relying on US scientific research as it was reported in the Sunday Telegraph of 2000 (not reading the actual scieitific papers), by making outdated and incorrect claims about there being no world temperature increase since 1998 (including misrepresenting NIWA on this), ....
Owen, one good reason not to take his advice is that it is not based on any actual up to date scientific knowledge.
The literature he researched 50 years ago, would refer to the Medieval Warm period and natural climate cycles.
The IPCC's "latest" research" is exactly the same, in this regard, as David Irving's "latest" research on the Holocaust. It revises history to its own agenda, in flagrant disregard of any standards of scientific method or ethics.
The literature of 50 years ago on natural climate cycles and warm periods and little ice ages, is just as good as the literature of 50 years ago on the Holocaust.
So how was Pyongyang, Steven? Did you wear your shorts to the funeral?
North Koreans brave weather for Kim funeral
More utter rubbish.
"The acceleration of data".....???????
A few desperate liars in Al Gore, Inc. are claiming this as a last ditch attempt to get their grab for governance entrenched.
Sea levels have been rising for centuries, and this rise has progressively slowed.
There has been no warming for 10 years.
It is quite clear to me that Owen McShane has a rare blend of both scientific and economic intelligence. Not that all purely "scientific" types are foaming at the mouth proto-totalitarians akin to the Bolsheviks for their economic illiteracy, but the ones that are have been drawn to "climate" science and "eco" "science like moths to a flame for decades.
Economic intelligence? You are aware that economics is not a scientific discipline. The Nobel family have several times threatened to diss own the Nobel prize in economics (not a true nobel prize) due to the un-scientific behaviour of the discipline, and their opinion that economics only has this prize in the name of Alfred Nobel to buy prestidge.
Like the majority of the green lunatic fringe that flocks to this site, Owen, PDK has no formal qualifications in science or engineering which informs/ filters his views. Rather he is a self taught/ self-aware individual in environmentalism and sustainability and has undertaken an in depth study of the issues by reading websites that confirm to his views.
David – like you and many others, one just cannot be experts in any fields of science. I’m sure intelligent, good educated people from any political colour or social class can read into scientific documents, understand them and make valuable conclusions.
This isn’t a forum about science.
There is also a lamentable lack in society, of people with enough broad spectrum knowledge, to be suspicious when it is necessary. For example, I was not skeptical of the IPCC until they published their infamous hockey stick graph. Big mistake, IPCC. Everyone who knew about the Medieval Warm Period became overnight sceptics at that point.
It does not require much further research by anyone with a bit of intelligence, to discover that yes, the whole thing is a fraud. There are literally hundreds of scientific papers and books on the MWP. It is the IPCC's "findings" that are akin to David Irving's findings on the Holocaust - the "denier" label has been applied to entirely the wrong people.
Of course PhilBest - in today’s world science is driven by money, which is often provided by lobby groups – a sad reality. Scientists are just a reflection of societies - often heavily divided in their opinions. Clever propaganda is used to manipulate doing a lot of harm, when people/ societies aren’t critical enough – especially now in increasingly rotten systems.
In my opinion the best, uncorrupted and trustworthy scientists are the ones we hardly hear about.
The hockey stick graph has been re-proven several times as sound science and maths.
but then im not suprised you wouldnt know, care about or understand such facts.
Its not so much a case of broad spectrum of knowledge as seeing those who are not wearing political and religious blinkers of such a size that they cant see anything but their own limited view point....such as in your case.
regards
Correct. An independent assessment of the original hockey stick graph confirmed the principal result of the study. Since then two additional studies have had the same findings.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2527990/
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/mann2008/mann2008.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1329/abstract
TLDR: Hockey stick graph = Appears to be correct.
Next you will be defending the Piltdown man
The co author of the fraudulent hockey stick shares his doubts here.
Regards
There is a whole BOOK on the hockey stick fraud: "The Hockey Stick Illusion" by A W Montford.
http://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate-Independent/dp/…
Sorry, steven you lost me as someone who's comments I could take seriously with that defence of the hockey stick.
It has NOT been 'reproven', the calculations behind it would produce a hockey stick with any random time-series data input.
I think you are the one who needs to withdraw for sake of credibility.
Anyone get sick of talk about who is the bigger 'expert'?
A true scientist will acknowledge what they do not know. Hence why particle physics and space related fields seem to produce great scientists. They will freely admit what they have yet to understand about the universe, while describing their theories.
When was the last time you could heard a 'climate' scientist speak like this? They pretend they know what will happen 100 years+ from now based on some climate models and jump from one cataclysim to another, all of course will be solved by some new govt mandated taxation.
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