Prime Minister John Key will lead a National-Act coalition government in 2011 with 61 seats in a 121 seat Parliament in the 2011 election, iPredict says in its weekly snapshot of New Zealand's prediction market.
The coalition depends on Act leader Rodney Hide winning back his seat in Epsom, iPredict CEO Matt Burgess said. "The market now indicates he has a 60% probability of retaining the seat for Act, up from 55% last week and 52% the week before," Burgess said.
"In all scenarios in which Rodney Hide does not win Epsom - regardless of what happens in Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti - the Maori Party would hold the balance of power and both a National-led or a Labour-led government would be possible," he said.
"In three of the four scenarios in which Mr Hide wins Epsom, a National-led government would be assured with Act and United Future. However, in the fourth scenario - the Maori Party winning Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Mr Dunne not winning Ohariu - the Maori Party would have a choice between formally or tacitly supporting a National/Act government, or creating a hung parliament leading to new elections."
This week's prediction market forecast party vote shares as: National 44.5% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (down from 36.6% last week), Greens 8.2% (down from 8.3% last week), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Maori Party 2.8% (down from 3.1% last week), Act 2.8% (up from 2.4% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.3% (steady).
Here is the release from iPredict:
Forecast:
* Close election
* Result in Epsom to be decisive
* John Key to lead National/Act Government
* Contracts for Ilam, New Plymouth, Tukituki and Wigram to be launched at 2.30 pm todayCommentary:
John Key will lead a National/Act government with 61 seats in a 121-seat Parliament after the next General Election, this week's snapshot of New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates.
The market continues to forecast that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (76%, down from 78% last week), with a 19% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 (down from 21% last week) and a 5% probability of an early election in Q2 2011.
Forecast party vote shares are: National 44.5% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (down from 36.6% last week), Greens 8.2% (down from 8.3% last week), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Maori Party 2.8% (down from 3.1% last week), Act 2.8% (up from 2.4% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.3% (steady).
The probability of Act Leader Rodney Hide winning Epsom for his party continues to rise. The market now indicates he has a 60% probability of retaining the seat for Act, up from 55% last week and 52% the week before.
National remains favoured in Ohariu, continuing to have a 37% probability of winning the seat, although the probability of it being retained by UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne has moved up this week to 35%, up from 34% last week.
The Maori Party is forecast to retain all five of its seats and Labour is forecast to retain Hauraki-Waikato. The result in Ikaroa-Rawhiti is too close to call, with Labour marginally favoured the last time the stock was traded.
Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.
Based on this data, the market is now forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 45 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 4 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
National and Act would have a combined 61 MPs and could govern with or without the Maori Party.
The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (78% probability, down from 79% last week).
The election remains close and iPredict has again analysed what parliamentary balance would exist in all possible combinations of results in the Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorates.
In all scenarios in which Rodney Hide does not win Epsom - regardless of what happens in Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti - the Maori Party would hold the balance of power and both a National-led or a Labour-led government would be possible.
In three of the four scenarios in which Mr Hide wins Epsom, a National-led government would be assured with Act and United Future. However, in the fourth scenario - the Maori Party winning Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Mr Dunne not winning Ohariu - the Maori Party would have a choice between formally or tacitly supporting a National/Act government, or creating a hung parliament leading to new elections.
The probabilities of by-elections before the General Election in Manurewa and Botany have plunged this week. The market now indicates there is only a 50% probability of a by-election in Manurewa (down from 72% last week) and just a 42% probability of a by-election in Botany (down from 60% last week).
The probability of a by-election in Te Atatu is down to 23%, from 26% last week.
There is an 80% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, down from 81% probability last week.
iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and the two new stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz
The company will be providing full election coverage next year, including of every electorate race in the country. Bundles of contracts for every electorate will be launched progressively through to the end of March. Contract bundles for Ilam, New Plymouth, Tukituki and Wigram will be launched at 2.30 pm today.
The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties. This week's was taken at 8.30 am today.
33 Comments
Who knows? It depends on what the press tell them to vote. At the moment ACT are down and out so hard to see Rodney back in but he is a consumate politician so who knows. We can't rule out that weasel Winston either - he could do a conjuring trick and hold the balance yet. The Maori party have shown themselves to be pretty astute on the whole, and work well with National.
It would be a shame though if National didnt win outright, recognising the outstanding contribution John Key has made, steering the country through a number of crises, and delivering well balanced policy for the benefit of all.
Would National really only go with ACT though? Based on what's happened in the last two years I would think not. How could you trust Act to be on its best behaviour for three whole years?
Looking at this week's predictions, how about a Labour/Greens/Maori/United Future government? ;)
Cheers
Alex
MMP gives Labour more options to form a government , than National . And as dogma says , why rule Winston Peters out ! Has anyone got some info on Winnie's recent pronouncements ?
Labour's greatest problem is that they didn't have a proper blood-letting after the 2008 election loss . The smooth transition of Goofy and Klinger sliding into Clark & Cullens roles' , was seen as too slick , too clever .
National and ACT will always be an " item " , Alex . The romance flickers at times , but the old love is still there .
The biggest gumbies have to be the Greens ! Had they not explicitly ruled themselves out of a coalition with National , JK may have offered them more of a voice in parliament than Labour ever had .
What if Dunne retires?
Greens and United hate each other? cant see it.....JK still commands a good lead....pity ACT (from the right wingers point of view) cant keep its nose clean...but then they never do.....pigs in muck.....when ever I think of a right winger like Rodney and money I think of a catholic priest and little boys....just cant keep hands away.
regards
A Note/comment Ive seen suggests Dunne wants to retire and move into a cushy overseas post.....in which case his seat probably goes to National......
In terms of partners Whinee P is more prone to supporting National than Labour? maybe National should learn to live with the pickled poison dwarf and let him do a Rodney and get a seat. Bear in mind Whinnee cant be far off retiring either?....NZF then becomes a minority party "people" can love.
I dont think the Green party would touch a coalition with National with a barge pole.....Brownlee etc is no where near green and the Green party itself is pretty leftie in nature.....I just cant see the Green's going for such on both these counts.
regards
So rather than having a mellowing influence on National , the Greens left them to do as they will ? That's a myopic view from them , if it is the case .
Don't they want to spread their message to all ............. Or just to those who already agree with them ................. Wot the f*ck is the Green's message , anyone remember ?
Sorry for missing that , Count-of-Christov . Having the metal staples removed from the Gummy noggin today ( they don't use thread stiches here ! ) . Forgot about the Greens influence on the supermarket bags . I liked the olde big paper bags we used when the dinosaurs still roamed free . ............ . And they're more opaque too , if you've got a heavy date with Mistress Paula on your dessert island ! .....Very handy , those big paper bags .
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Liberatianz take out at least six or seven seats this time. People who are sick of the continuation of unsustainable - in the true economic sense - philosophically repugnant Nanny State under National will finally see the light and vote for their shackles to be removed.
It's less than 12 months from the next election , and few in the country have a clue as to who Liberatianz are ! Getcha message out there , Mark . Start bellowing from the roof-tops .
The nation is desperate for a political alternative to the current crop of wastrals ......... If someone else doesn't emerge soon , Winsome Peters will snaffle the vote of the disaffected . And do we really want him back !
......... Yeah .......... Anytime that I see Goofy , Klinger or Cunny , I think : " 3 more years guys , 3 more years ! "
The question is , will JK & Wild Bill finally come out with a plan that is different to Labour's .
And will they eventually un-Cullenise the economy of the dopey policies of the former government .
National suck just as much as anyone and they shouldn't even be allowed to lead lemmings over a cliff, but they are no worse than any of the alternatives. Since they haven't been in govt long enough to bore everyone yet, they will still get the majority of the vote.
Nigel Farage ....Nicholas,... would be a Pop Star President in this shitkicker paradise......I mean the sycophantic polly's here would be in a total flap and would move quickly to have him involved in some sordid goings on......no mate they could not take ...THAT kind of robust opposition.
You are so right, Christov.
NZ doesn't have anyone like Farage, or Daniel Hannan.
I think the country is electorally stuffed.
ACT's vote has collapsed because most ACT voters have left the country. Remember their 9 seats (or thereabouts) in the first MMP election?
I don't expect Epsom to re-elect Hide.
The mood in "Gray Power" is dismayingly "vote Winston".
John Key has completely pissed off large numbers of people over anti smacking and foreshore and seabed and Maori grievance industry.
I don't expect any of the 2025 task forces ideas, or Roger Douglas's, to ever get any traction from now. The current government is as "free market", "small government", "low tax", as we are ever going to get. National is now mere caretakers of the government benches in between onslaughts of Marxism from an increasingly loony Chavismo Labour and its loonier allies.
I have heard anecdotes that a top secret Aussie Military planning scenario for the future (one among many, of course), involves NZ as "Australia's Cuba". I actually don't think that is too extreme.
I have said again and again, I wish Helen and Michael had stayed in power somehow, so that they had to "own" their own mess, and the NZ public might have HAD to think a bit more clearly about the viability of Nanny Statism and Communism by stealth. I also wish National had remained ideologically pure. Better to get back in one day with a MANDATE to DO the hard stuff, rather than just be smiling caretakers of the gummint benches in between onslaughts of Marxism that you've largely rubber-stamped for the sake of winning the next election. The John Key National Party endorsements of State owned enterprises, State owned Rail, WFF, the ETS, Student Loan subsidies, the Cullen Fund, Kiwibank, Nationalised ACC, the LGA, strangulatory council regulations under the RMA, school zoning, no parental choice or voucher schemes, no private health solutions, etc etc;
means that it is now virtually impossible to change any of these things. Thanks, John Key. For nothing.
True enough a huge disappointment like Obama who he has a "direct line" to (as in help!), but is the service of their masters intentional or misguided. I had Key as "independantly wealthy" so I thought he would have said "who gives a flying ..." who he pisses off.
Maybe their conversation was on the level of "hey I've got a pad in Hawaii too" catch you for a BBQ some time . . .
NZ's only hope now is for demanding CBIR's. Don't demand, don't get EVER! The window of opportunity is quickly closing people. Look where voting RED & BLUE has got us? Don't for a minute believe what is happening in the northern hemisphere won't happen here. Austerity is coming. WE are a debt country, VERY VERY MUCH in debt. Your 7 properties won't save you
It's hilarious seeing you right wingers criticise National...Right wing policy is the best future for NZ - I agree...but what you whingers must realise is that it's not politically feasible to radically reform NZ and go on a right wing binge..You must realise that JK would love to announce that overnight he is dumping WFF, Interest free student loans, DPB reforms, capital gains tax etc...But it's not politically feasible!! He would get voted out and then Labour are back in power...it's like the old saying "you throw a frog into boiling water and he jumps out, but if you put him in cold water and turn up the heat - the frog gets boiled."
How can he dump a CG tax when we do not have one to dump?
Chances are though that if we'd had one the recent insane property bubble wouldn't have caused the amount of damage it did when it inevitably burst. Perhaps the bubble would not even have been able to form in the first place.
However you are correct: Rabid right-wingers bashing their Earthly representatives is a very funny sight, I will admit.
Allow for the 2008 National voters who wanted a change of governing party. Many will return to their former allegance unless JK gets away from his wishy-washy decision making.
Someone has to grab governace and give this country a good shake.
Neither party has the leader to do that so we will drift on under the influence of the China-Australia crumb throw offs.
Folks interested in vox populi should take the time to watch the acclaimed BBC series called Century of The Self. (Link below for those interested.) The four-part series documents the rise of social engineers from Roosevelt to Blair. The evolution of marketing has moved far beyond selling things to manufacturing consent for political elites.
It matters not whether Goff, Key, Hide. Peters, or Cunliffe lead government. The illusion that a shift from one party to the next makes any difference at all should have evaporated after Obama was elected, then David Cameron, then Enda Kenny, et. al. Nothing changes. To get elected one need only do incredibly deep focus groups and key in on the positive responses, irrespective of party policy. In a nutshell - target the swing vote. With MMP, holding onto power is that much simpler.
Elections are the Olympics for mainstream media. They get to travel, feed and sleep on the company dime. There are camp followers galore to find companionship with. And best of all, you are handed your stories on a platter. A dream come true for our fifth estate, after a season of Pike River and Christchurch Motel rooms.
All that having been said; I would love to see Labour get in... if only to find out how much debt the Treasury has hidden away in their secret places.
http://www.archive.org/details/AdaCurtisCenturyoftheSelf_0
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