More Kiwis left to live permanently overseas in October than in any month since January 2009, seasonally adjusted figures from Statistics New Zealand show.
Prime Minister John Key said he was not worried by the fact a greater amount were leaving, and that he did not see the situation as Kiwis 'voting with their feet'.
Total seasonally adjusted permanent and long term (PLT) departures of 6,610 in October was up from 6,200 in September, and 4,680 in October 2009.
However, permanent arrivals of migrants also rose, meaning net permanent and long term migration to New Zealand continued to trend upward in October.
This fit with economist expectations for numbers to keep increasing, putting at least some pressure on a slow housing market that has experienced a poor start to the spring selling season.
Seasonally adjusted figures show a net 680 permanent and long term migrants arrived in October, and although this was down from 1,030 in September, Statistics New Zealand’s trend series for the figures continued to rise from a low in May this year.
The monthly fall in net migration from September was due to more New Zealanders leaving for Australia, Stats NZ said.
There were 3,031 permanent or long-term departures from New Zealand to Australia during the month, up from 1,851 in October 2009, figures show. There were 2,681 New Zealand residents who left to live in Australia, up from 1,573 in October 2009 but down from 3,279 in the peak outflow month of October 2008.
However monthly departures across the Tasman were still down from the October month peak of 3,647 in 2008, Stats NZ said.
Overall annual figures show net PLT migration to New Zealand was 12,610 in the year to October, down from 18,560 the year before.
Unadjusted figures (see chart below) show net PLT migration to New Zealand of 1,700 in October, down from 3,004 in October 2009, but up from 1,487 in 2008.
ASB economist Jane Turner said Kiwis would continue to be lured to Australia as employment growth in the lucky country continued to outperform the recovery in New Zealand.
Turner said a subdued pace of net migration had contributed to underlying weakness in both housing demand and retail spending growth. "However, the recent stabilisation in the pace of monthly net migration is a promising sign, as it reduces some of the downside risk presented to these areas of the economy."
"The RBNZ will keep the OCR on hold while domestic economic growth remains subdued. We continue to expect the RBNZ to resume rate hikes in March 2011," she said.
PM Key not worried about those leaving
Prime Minister John Key said later on Monday he was not worried with the figures showing and increase in the amount of Kiwis leaving, and he did not think those doing so were 'voting with their feet'.
"I think they voted with their feet on Saturday night in Mana – they voted in support of the National government," Key told journalists at his weekly media briefing in Wellington.
"In terms of the overall migration numbers, I haven’t looked at the data for a few weeks but the last time I looked at it they were slightly higher in recent months, but overall significantly less than 2006, 2007," he said.
"There’ll always be some migration patterns. If you look in Australia, unemployment’s actually been rising – it rose to 5.4%. We’re a little bit higher obviously at 6.4%, but our trends look alright."
(Updates with PM comments, economist reaction, unadjusted monthly figures.)
Net long term migration
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42 Comments
I wonder if the people leaving are mostly younger renters while the people arriving are older and have money and intend to buy? Would be interesting to see some figures on wealth and age of people coming and going.
Not long now before I'm out of here too. Planning on leaving to earn enough to eventually come back and buy a house without having to take on debt that will hang over me for the next 20 - 30 years.
Nothing to see here people. Only when National is not in government, they'll make this an issue. And Labour doesn't care. Rich pricks or rich prick wannabees leaving? Who cares. The economy is a pie, and the only thing our politicians care about is how to carve it up.
Thinking of Singapore or Hong Kong because they have booming economies, high pay and low tax and with some frugal living I should be able to save a decent amount. I'm a valuer. I intend to organise a job before I go, sometime in the new year and leave mid 2011. If I can't get a job in either of those counties I'll probably shift to Aussie instead.
All of my older cousins are in Aussie now with young families and speaking with them last week they wont be coming back anytime soon. If I didn't intend to come back to NZ I'd probably go straight to Aussie.
Like i said some weeks back this is why employment figures look like they are going up. This kind of thing distorts the handpicked government spun figures on overall numbers of unemployed. They will be leaving NZ benefits for real benefits (job prospects) in Aus. Why stay here? nothing happening
A tip for those who would migrate to Australia, and purchase a home. All property transactions are subject to stamp-duty. On a $1 million house it's about $70000, on a $500,000 house it's about $35000. The State Governments and the Federal Governments operate a FHG (First Home Buyers Grant) and its (was) worth about $30k, but its been reduced since the GFC has settled down. Anyway, as a First Home Buyer you will be entitled to it. If you dont ask for it you wont get it. Stamp Duty is paid by the buyer, not the seller.
The Victorian State Government is currently proposing to rebate the stamp-duty on brand-new houses built in regional towns, and still provide the first home owners grants, together, in total, worth AUD $60k all up, or NZD $76k.
Don't be fooled by the numbers. Net immigration may still look ok (ish) but it's who replaced the 2680 kiwis who left for Oz last month that matters.
Australia is leaving NZ for dust, and a big part of that is through taking the brightest and most ambitious. NZ fills the holes with lower skills (Asia/pacific islands), as even the influx from the UK will dry up as the poms will increasingly choose Oz to match wage expectations.
We are leaving early next year, love NZ but only so far the love will stretch. I'm on average pay in Aucks (65k), and have taken a similar role paying (115k NZ)….would be an idiot to stay. The article today about Aucklanders who rent being poor in retirement, it's not rocket science! I don't fancy being in that statistic, and trying to pay rent out of my pension doesn't sound fun. I don't care what people say on this site, hard working young people should get on the property ladder asap and build a secure future for their family.
To anyone else in our situation, vote with your feet.
Thanks Matt,
The figures seemed good considering the numbers leaving, about zero was my gut feel.
NZ will never stuggle to attract immigrants, but attracting people with skills and/or cash is another ball game.
People will argue that good people still move here, and it's true, but for increasingly niche reasons. I suspect the government will keep the numbers plumped with unskilled coming through the gates.
But be warned, replacing doctors with dossers is the road to nowhere
" NZ fills the holes with lower skills (Asia/pacific islands)" - I take offence to that, even though you're obviously generalising. From my experience, you either have to have some useful degrees or lots of money to be accepted into NZ (on a permanent basis anyway). If not, you'd have to be able to qualify for refugee status or be re-united with your family.
My cousin immigrated in NZ a few years ago (on my advice, believe it or not), and was one of just 10 NZ scientists to be recently awarded a research grant (chemical and physical sciences). My husband and I both work in what people here like to call productive industries (new technologies, IT) and the few other immigrants we know are in similar highly-skilled, highly-paying, highly-productive jobs.
For the record, one doesn't immigrate to NZ for the money. And unlike mentioned above, considering NZ as a "transit point" to Australia involves wanting to spend 5 years in transit first (to gain citizenship)... It's hardly a one-night sleepover. It's funny how the grass always seems greener on the other side of the fence. It is a shame that NZ wages are so low compared to other developed countries but fortunately, they are only one factor in the equation. There are many other things, not all quantifiable, that come into account. For my part, I wouldn't move back to France despite the fact that my salary would go up 50% instantly and that I'd also receive another income worth almost as much in "Allocations familiales" (an equivalent of WFF, just a whole lot more). Life isn't all about money.
Eight years on and still trying to understand Kiwis' fascination with Australia...
Elley, good points, but my take is that NZ doesn't have to be a poor country. Our government is eating up 50% of the economy. That's the problem. Without that burden, the discrepancies would be less. And secondly, are we getting enough doctors here given our wages? And of what quality?
Elley - but it IS partly about the money for many immigrants. Yes, the pay is lower than in Europe, but so are the taxes:)
and property is still cheaper here, despite the slumps happening over there
Its very easy to understand the fascination with Aus. Humanity has always aspired towards the "bigger, brighter, better". Now personally I don't think Aus is "better" than NZ, but many do!
Try backing that up with real data beyond yourself....from the few Ive met is the soft skills ie truck drivers etc who are leaving to go drive trucks in the mines where they get paid a lot more.
"Property ladder", you make the mistake that the next 20 years will be like the last.....it would be gross stupidity to borrow on a house today worth 300k only to find in 20 years its worth 200k....with rentng you wouldnt have paid out or still owe another $100k....
regards
"it would be gross stupidity to borrow on a house today worth 300k only to find in 20 years its worth 200k....with rentng you wouldnt have paid out or still owe another $100k...."
Life is a gamble mate, and if you're not willing to assume property will continue to be in demand (as it has been since year dot) in the future then you'll be your landlords peasant forever.
Life should be a considered/rational "gamble" there will always be unknowns/unexpected which you either accept as a small likelyhood and therefore ignore or pay some sort of insurance to cover....making a clear rational decision is perfectly sane, making a knee jerk it will be all right mate gamble is not.
The issue is not that property is in demand but that that demand will vary, hence the value will vary. Assuming that value has accumilated from the year dot so will therefore continue to into the future is plain silly IMHO.
regards
Let me start by saying I love this country and I dont want to leave. My cousins all recently flew back from Aussie for their fathers funeral. I want my parents to remain a regular part of my life and it sucks that the only way I think I can get anywhere is to leave. However my family are the ones urging me to go. I haven't met a single person who said it was a stupid idea.
I want to buy a house but I dont want to have a massive debt burden sitting on my shoulders for the next 20-30 years. If I was happy with that I'd stay here and buckle down. I've seen what happens to people under the pressures of paying back a huge mortgage and raising a family. Debt is like a disease of stress, greed and desperation, truly the currency of slaves. The manager of Kiwibank may want me to settle for this kind of life but I dont buy it.
Medium Term:
Why leave now? Because I cant see values increasing for the next 5 years at least. If I go away to a booming economy for 5 years and come back I'll be in a far better off position than staying here for that 5 years.
The market has dropped back a bit, but its got a long way to go till it hits that long term trend line. Will it drop more in the next 5 years (due to interest rate increases bringing on more mortgagee sales) or just coast along flat until the median price is back in sync with the long term average? I dont know and nobody does but I dont believe there will be any value increase over the medium term.
Long Term:
Will the baby boomers start selling up investment properties to finance their retirement? If so then relative to where prices are now they're going to have to come WAY down because I dont think theres any demand for the debt that will be required to maintain current price levels with that much extra supply hitting the market.
Theres also peak oil which I vaguely understand but have no idea of how it will impact our economy and thus property prices over the next 10-20 years.
The baby boomer issue alone makes me wonder if we aren't in for a japanese style 10 - 20 years of near zero real growth in property prices. Its a question I dont know the answer to and for the next 5 years I dont see any reason to risk it. Maybe when I come back things will be a bit clearer and a few more of these global debt bubbles may have popped.
iconoclast @ 22 Nov 10, 12:46pm: First home buyer - Kiwi only qualify for this grant if they applied and granted AUS Permanent Residence. You won't get it as Kiwi fresh off the boat!
Eureka! Have been wondering Wolly where you get your rather dramatic views about the property market from and now I see you quote Kris Sayce, who thrives on being alarmist in Australia, although to be fair the market has continued to soar in Aussy, during 2008-10, unlike NZ. Even so his 20-40% slump is typical Kris Sayce stuff. In NZ I find the reality is usually a half way point between the world views of Olly and Wolly.
Good question, why do so many kiwis leave? I've had plenty of mates go overseas and I'd say for two main reasons; 1) Adventure 2) Better Climate. And yes money is better, but most kiwis that move to London have to flat with about 10 other people, their living costs are high and overall quality of life is worse, and most of them come back.
Our net disposable income aren't all that bad compared to UK, Aus etc. If you want to earn real money the States is the place to go where gross income is high with comparatively low cost of living, but very difficult getting visas & residency.
Been to the UK recently Ricardo? Obviously not so let me give you the benefit of my information, given that I am in the UK, and have been for most of the last decade. I also spent 10 months until July this year living in NZ, before the rip off drove me out again.
1: Living costs are at least 40% cheaper than NZ, food, utilities etc all a fraction on the unit costs on NZ. No you cant include the exchange rate, because you earn dollars or pounds, and you spend dollars or pounds.
2: You don’t live 10 to a house, some do but overall that is simply not the norm. Rents here are reasonable and most I know are 2-3 to a nice house.
3: Trips abroad are very cheap, your lifestyle in NZ might be better in some ways but in the UK on no more than a good income, you can have a very good life, and even save a little., or if you earn good money you can save a lot, this is fact.
So to re-itterate, cost of living is much cheaper in the UK!
That is nonsence Wolly, it's the same banks here in NZ as Australia. If people were concerned about the banks here they would equally be concerned about the banks there, so that's not why they are going.
And whereas some sanity has come into the NZ property situation since 2007, its carried on up and up in Aussy another 20% more in that time. Better off buying in Auckland now than Sydney or Melbourne. Sayce is a sensationalist who loves touting his share market quick get rich schemes (and hence virilently against property investment) but it is true that the property situation is a lot more insane now over there than here.
Well I have to say that I have the misfortune to have been born in Aussie, means I am a dual citizen.
I must say that I am less than impressed with the training incentives I have been offered here (none) so I would consider skipping across the ditch to finish my training. Double the salary for a graduate is pretty attractive also.
A few ties here though so will see how things pan out over the next year. Maybe go to Melbourne to do my Masters in 2012, it is a better school than ours as well.
Can't exactly see a flood of Architecture commission being thrown about here for the next five to tens years either.
I'm currently in Brisbane on holiday too, perfect temperature at this time of year in the mid to high 20's. Stayed with some good friends for a few days in a 3brm Queenslander (now those houses have character!) that's 15mins from CBD (less with no traffic) and they pay $440 p/w rent. I was astounded! Another observation, the shops/malls here aren't discounting like crazy as they are at home. 20% off is considered a good discount. Hell, at home the shoppers would turn their nose up at that. Groceries seem to be more expensive here than in NZ, overall anyway. Lots of folks are complaining about utlity costs here too, mainly power & water. Phone & Internet are dirt cheap here however. Over and out, off to enjoy the sun!
It's not all cracked up to be over in Queensland - Brisbane. This year I had 3 job offers, two of which were almost identical of what I am getting in Auckland - one was slightly higher. We went over for three weeks to check out - What I am finding is accomodation might be a tad cheaper than Auckkland but foodwise is way more expensive. Compulsory super will take a BIG chunk out of your salary (18% in my case). Ok that's saving but it will put a big dent to your cash flow. To me it's not a greener patch of grass - it was more like a piece of astro tuff!
I also checked out Melbourne and Sydney. Salary offered in those two cities is about 30% higher in Auckland but then cost of living there are also way higher than here. Don't believe what people said - Go there and check it out for yourself!
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