Exodus to Australia up for 2nd consecutive annualised period

The number of New Zealanders emigrating to Australia rose in the year to June, the second consecutive annualised increase.

Statistics New Zealand's international travel and migration figures for June show the net permanent long-term outflow of people to Australia was 15,900 in the year to June 2010, up from 15,200 in the year to May. The May figure was up 400 from the year to April marking the first annualised increase since December 2008.

(Updates add comments from ASB Bank economist Jane Turner and chart).

The June year figure stems from 31,700 departures to Australia and 15,800 arrivals from Australia. The majority of migrants in both directions were New Zealand citizens. The latest June year figure is, however, well down from 28,700 departures in the June 2009 year.

Statistics New Zealand also said tourist arrivals reached 2.501 million in the June year, the first time 2.5 million has been topped. It follows the 2 million visitor mark being reached in the November 2002 year, and the 1 million mark in the April 1992 year. Visitors from Australia accounted for 1.119 million, or 45%, of all visitors in the year. A further quarter came from four countries; Britain (248,900), the United States (194,000), China (105,200), and Japan (83,600).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, net permanent and long-term migration was 100 (a rounded figure) in June 2010, the lowest monthly figure since Statistics New Zealand's series briefly dipped below zero in November 2008.

Meanwhile, the annual net migration gain was 16,500 for the June year, down from the recent peak of 22,600 in the January 2010 year. The main inflows of migrants were from the United Kingdom, India, and China.

The net permanent departure of 14,200 New Zealand citizens in the  year was the lowest outflow for a June year since 11,500 New Zealand citizens left in 2003. On the other side of the coin, the net inflow of 30,700 non-New Zealand citizens was the lowest for a June year since 23,200 arrived in 2000.

ASB Bank economist Jane Turner said net migration had slowed rapidly, proving much weaker than expected over the June quarter with just 70 net new arrivals recorded in the June month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Permanent and long term arrivals fell 2.5% month-on-month and 9.4% year-on-year, both on a seasonally adjusted basis.  On the other hand Turner said permanent and long term departures were flat month-on-month and up 18.3% year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis.

"The fall in arrivals appears to be concentrated in those requiring work permits," Turner said, "reflecting the weaker NZ labour market."

Aside from rising departures to Australia, she also noted departures to Britain seemed to be recovering, "perhaps reflecting pent-up demand as young New Zealanders had deferred the traditional OE experience during the heights of the global recession."

Meanwhile, the sharp slowdown in net migration would reduce support for the housing market over the next year. 

"We continue to expect further recovery in residential construction for the time being, reflecting the strength of net migration over the previous year," Turner said.  

"However, the sharper than expected slow down in recent months brings into question the strength and longevity of this recovery.  In the upcoming OCR review, the RBNZ may look a bit closer at its relatively upbeat residential investment forecasts, given signs of slower population growth."

"Nonetheless, the RBNZ is likely to remain reasonably comfortable with the slowing household sector, as it has been looking for a rebalancing in economic growth for sometime.  We continue to expect the RBNZ to continue to withdraw monetary policy stimulus at a steady pace over the coming year," Turner added.