Although overall consumer confidence fell this month, June's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey suggests retail sales are poised to rise.
The survey shows the index down 4 points to 122.0 month-on-month, well down on January's recent 131.4 peak.
There was a 10 point fall in respondents who expect to be financially better off next year, which was offset to some extent by a 7 point increase in people thinking now was a good time to buy a major household item.
As with yesterday's quarterly Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index, ANZ and Roy Morgan are tipping improving retail sales. The most recent Statistics New Zealand figures show seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3%in April.
"Should the increase in those looking to buy a major household item translate through into action, we should see a pick-up in retail sales over the coming months, off current subdued levels. Interestingly, it is the 18-24 and 50+ age groups that recorded sharp increases in respondents thinking it is a good time to buy. The reading for the 50+ age group is the highest since November 2007," ANZ and Roy Morgan said.
"Financially, consumers are yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession, but are getting close to doing so."
This month's survey was the first to reflect the Government’s May Budget, Fonterra’s better than expected forecast payout for the 2010/11 dairy season, the escalation of Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and the Reserve Bank's move to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% last week.
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