More than half of QV survey respondents see house prices falling

More than half of the respondents in a Quoteable Value survey believe house prices will fall in the next six months, more than double the proportion who believed house prices would fall in a similar survey last September. The 'State of the Market' survey of 573 people indicates the recent rise to near record highs for house prices, the expectation of higher interest rates and the chances of a tax crackdown on property investors in the May 20 budget are taking their toll on expectations and sentiment in the property market. The proportion who believed house prices would rise dropped to 12% from 65% in September. The percentage who expected prices to fall jumped to 51% from 20% in September. The overall turnaround in the net percentage of those expecting price movements was therefore dramatic. Last September a net 45% expected prices to rise, while in March the percentage somersaulted to a net 39% expecting a fall. The proportion of respondents who were interested in buying either their first house or their first investment property almost halved to 7% from 12% previously. The full results of the survey are below.

House Price expectations What do you think will happen to house prices over the next 12 months? *12% expect house prices to rise (down considerably from 65% in September) *51% expect house rises to fall (up from 20% in September) *A net 39% expect prices to fall (a big change from a net 45% who expected prices to increase in the September survey) *32% expect values to stay the same (up from 14% in September) Factors influencing buying and selling People were asked to list which of the following factors influenced their decision to buy or sell within the next 12 months. They could choose as many as they liked. * Property values – 35% listed this as a factor, down from 49% in September * Interest rates – 27% listed as a factor, down from 30% * Job security – 15%, down from 22% * Financial pressures – 16%, up from 15% * Lending conditions – 14%, was 15% in September The biggest change was property values being less important, and job security being less of a concern. Is now a good time to buy? *A net 23% of respondents believe that now is a good time to buy, down from 41% in September. The breakdown is: * 44% agreed or strongly agreed that now is a good time to buy (57% in September) * 21% disagreed or strongly disagreed (16% in September) * This leads to a net 23% believing now is a good time to buy (41% in September) 35% were neutral (27% in September) Intentions in the next 12 months *40% are considering buying, down from 46% in September * 40% are considering selling, up from 35% in September * 33% are considering renovating, down from 38% * 10% are considering building, down from 12% * 21% have no intentions over the next 12 months, up from 19% Timing to buy * 23% are intending to buy within 3 months, down from 32% in September * 20% are intending to buy within 3 to 6 months, down from 28% in September * 37% are intending to wait longer than 6 months, down from 40% Timing to sell * 38% are intending to sell within 3 months, up from 36% in September * 12% are intending to sell within 3 to 6 months, down from 17% in September * 50% are intending to wait longer than 6 months, up from 47% Reason for buying or selling People were asked what were their reasons for buying or selling * Buying or selling an investment property – 27%, down from 30% in September * Looking for a smaller/larger house – 24%, up from 21% in September * Moving to another area – 20%, unchanged. * Financial pressures – 7%, up from 6% * Buying first investment property – 3%, down from 6% * Buying first home – 4%, down from 6% * Other – 15%, up from 10%