Have your say: BNZ's Alexander sees NZ$ below US 50c

This from BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander in the BNZ's Weekly Overview, saying that the NZ$/US$ is looking increasingly likely to trade well down in the 40-50 cent range, it's just that we don't know when:

Another emailer noted they have funds in USDs and wonder when would be the best time to change them into NZDs. We made two key points. The first was that with nominal interest rates in NZ having capacity to fall further than rates offshore the interest rate advantage for the NZD is going to diminish. In addition as declining world growth, falling commodity prices, and reducing availability of trade finance hit world trade we will suffer due to our high dependence upon foreign trade. That means the NZD is highly likely to fall further from current levels. But the second point we made was that in the current environment it is impossible to take a reasonable stab at the timing of the NZD's cyclical low against the USD and what that low will be. It is looking increasingly likely we trade well down in the 40-50 cent range. But when is anyone's guess.