Fonterra expected to revise payout forecast to NZ$5.20/kg

Economists and analysts are expecting Fonterra's payout revision at midday today to be around NZ$5.20, a survey conducted by interest.co.nz shows. None of the six banks or institutions surveyed picked a revised forecast below $5.00. Predictions ranged between $5.00 and $5.50, with $5.20 being the median of the expected ranges. Fonterra forecast last year a payout of $6.00/kg for the current dairy season, down from a final payout of $7.66 last year. The outlier of the survey was Westpac, who predicted the announcement to be $5.50, Westpac economist Doug Steel said. Federated Farmers were rather surprised at Westpac's prediction and said they expected the payout to be in the $5-$5.20 range, but not lower than $5. ANZ economist Kevin Wilson said they expected the payout to be in the low $5.00 range, and that the revised forecast will be heavily dependent on how Fonterra's Value Added business performed and what the dairy giant's foreign exchange hedging position was. NZX Agrifax told interest.co.nz they expected the announcement to be $5.15. BNZ's Mark Walton said they were predicting a revised forecast in the $5-$5.20 range, and that it would be closer to $5 than $5.50. ASB's Chris Tennent-Brown said somewhere in the $5-$5.50 range. In an on-line poll, 37% of interest.co.nz readers said they expected the revised forecast to be $4.50, with 35% expecting $4.00.