Building consent trend flattens in June, retirement village construction helps (Update 1)

The trend for the number of building consents for new dwelling units in New Zealand, excluding apartments, continued to be at a low level in June after flattening out over recent months, Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) said. Including apartment units, the trend for the number of new housing consents increased slightly over the previous five months following increases in retirement village construction. (Update 1 includes regional chart and ASB comment.) There were 1,100 building consents issued for dwelling units in June, down from 1,380 the year before. There were 133 apartment consents issued, with 967 consents for other dwellings in June. Retirement village construction continued to dominate the apartment building figures, with 68% of June's apartment consents being for assisted-living apartment units, Stats NZ said. Seasonally adjusted, there were 1,104 dwelling consents in June (for all dwellings), down from 1,220 in May. Excluding apartments, there were 954 dwelling consents in June, up from 926 in May (s.a). Trends are based on the seasonally adjusted figures. "Excluding apartments, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised rose 3.0 percent in June 2009, after falling 3.2 percent in May 2009. The trend for the number of new dwellings authorised, excluding apartments, has flattened in recent months," Acting Government Statistician Cathryn Ashley-Jones said. "Including apartments, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised in June 2009 fell 9.5 percent, after rising 3.0 percent in May 2009 and 11 percent in April 2009. The trend for the number of new dwellings authorised, including apartments, has been increasing slightly since January 2009 after a series of falls that began in June 2007," Ashley-Jones said. "For the year ended June 2009, consents were issued for 14,175 new dwellings, including apartments. This was the lowest annual number for a June year since the monthly series began in April 1965," she said. "The value of residential building consents was $385 million in June 2009, 18 percent lower than in June 2008. The trend for the value has fallen 44 percent since its peak in June 2007." ASB economist Jane Turner said there should a recovery in housing construction over the next year: "Core consents have been slow to lift off its lows, although continued falls in house prices over the first half of 2009 may have discouraged new investment. We expect that house prices are now starting to stabilise which, combined with the increase in population growth, should encourage a recovery in housing construction over the next year. Nonetheless, the recovery is likely to be modest as households remain cautious on the weak employment outlook."