The Government is starting to talk more publicly about the capacity of the health system, as it concedes Covid-19 cases are expected to surge.
The Ministry of Health on Thursday briefed media on the health system’s preparedness.
It was explicit: “When we have a vaccinated community, most patients will be safely cared for at home or in a community facility. Preparation is underway now to support those at home or in the community.”
However, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins told RNZ’s Checkpoint programme we’re likely to start seeing more self-isolating from as early as this week, with only 59% of over-12s fully vaccinated.
He said a “risk-based” approach was required, as there simply won’t be enough beds in managed isolation and quarantine facilities to accommodate for all the Covid-19 cases.
Director of Public Health Caroline McElnay went on to say we might start having 10-20% of cases self-isolate and progress to 50-60%.
ACT leader David Seymour questioned why the Government was going to let some known Covid-19 cases self-isolate, but require all overseas returnees, who have returned negative Covid-19 test results, go into managed isolation.
“If it [the Government] was committed to managing Covid risk, it would see that a double vaccinated person from overseas, especially one that’s had a negative test, is less of a threat than a case who may be vaccinated and is confirmed to have Covid,” Seymour said.
“The Government could choose to be honest about the situation. The outbreak in Auckland will now be managed in the community. The benefit of keeping Kiwis out of their own country no longer stacks up.”
Coming back to the Ministry of Health, it said around 108 (34%) of the country’s 319 intensive care beds were available as at Wednesday. Intensive care capacity can surge to 550, but this would disrupt other health services.
As at Wednesday, there were six Covid-19 cases in intensive care, and a further 26 people in hospital. General hospital utilisation was at 83%.
Wigram Capital Advisors principal Rodney Jones, whose Covid-19 modelling has been used by the Government, has for some months been urging the Government to invest more in surge capacity.
A month ago, he told TVNZ’s Q+A programme, "We now need to recognise we're in a different space."
In terms of anticipating the spread of the virus, Jones has been watching the number of new Covid-19 cases infectious in the community.
In terms of gauging how we are managing the spread of the virus, interest.co.nz has noticed the sharp uptick in the number of epidemiologically unlinked cases since Auckland moved to Level 3 with picnics on October 6.
McElnay said having 170-180 new cases a day would put the contact tracing system under pressure.
Jones told interest.co.nz he was “concerned” about rising case numbers, but wasn’t panicking.
He said the Australian Capital Territory had managed to cope with an “R value” of around 1.2, meaning the average Covid-19 case passes the virus on to 1.2 others.
96 Comments
The Govt has given up, haven't had the guts to ring fence the offending suburbs, have shot their mouth off about never going back to L4, and now telling us we can all be safely treated at home by us GPs, have a pig headed overconfidence in the ability of our health system to cope(remembering how many hospital staff are stood down after the repeated exposure events so far).
Noting a third of the GP workforce is over 65, and are not allowed a booster to overcome our waning immunity, so don't count on GPS/Nurses feeling confident to walk in to a house full of Belles,Scarfies and Big Jims coughing away; and, even worse, the Coromandel Mayor huffing on a Coromandel Gold.
Would have thought Comrades, Ardern, Little and Hipkins would have got a few hints on handling Covid from Comrade Xi???
You are late in the day with that feeling Comrade X. Yes they had a grip last year certainly, a laudable achievement. But that was only half time. No preparation at all for the second half and when Mr Delta took the field for the Team Covid, they found that that grip, was no more effective than putting your thumb on mercury.
... lemmee see if I have this straight : Kiwi residents with Covid-19 will be asked to go home , and will be trusted to stay there... to self isolate ...
But .... returnees from overseas who're double jabbed & who test negative for C19 will go into managed isolation , MIQ , for two weeks ....
... beg pardon ... ... did I just wake up into a parallel universe where the barking mad is accepted as logical wisdom ?
This government has lost its grab over Covid, and they have also completely lost the plot.
They are running round like headless chickens with ad-hoc, self-contradictory and confused rules, while behaving like a child who has just learned that Santa does not exist and refusing to acknowledge reality. They initially did a sterling job with the first wave last year, but now they seem to be hellbent on defying logic, common sense and reality, still living in a 2020 world while the rest of the world has moved on.
They make things up as they go, there are no dates for opening up, no actual targets, no detailed roadmap that the business community might use to plan, no serious enforcement of law-breakers, no initiative. The have been totally reactive and they have done nothing to seriously prepare the public health system for the unavoidable opening up of the country.
I know a nurse who was on duty yesterday. She had to look after a newly recruited Indian nurse who was supposed to be very experienced. The nurse followed her round all shift and stared at everything that she did. When asked to do anything she was not capable. She was less capable than a nursing assistant and about as much use as a first year nursing student. She was totally unaware of even the most basic drugs. It was patently obvious that she had never worked in a hospital in her life. I presume that she was one of the hordes of foreign nurses with which the government are starting and planing to shore up our health system, because they are unwilling to pay well trained KIwis enough to retain them. In future you may be safer in a Calcutta hospital than any in NZ.
I could go on with lots of other examples but they all amount to the same thing.
In fairness many Indian trained nurses are fine. The dangers are that the standards of education vary widely and they have an essentially dishonest culture where you can buy just about any qualification.
I've posted this before but a mate of mine, a nurse, said that it's evident there's not enough skilled medical professionals in NZ, not enough doctors and specialists or nurses. Hence the government are creating new tiers of highly skilled nurse practitioners with skills on par with doctors in some ways.
This is the governments solution for the future of healthcare in NZ, that as we age we can expect more nurses taking on more responsibility as they're slightly quicker and cheaper to train and cheaper to employ too.
'an essentially dishonest culture' - that's not right. I've worked with a couple of Indians in NZ and the UK who I would trust with my life. It is not culture but 3rd world poverty. I have experience of PNG and specifically Port Moresby where the correct summary is the many good people are more worthy than any Kiwi or UK equivalents but poverty means the remarkably small number of bad people are far worse. Taking your example if you were in the same state of poverty and zero prospects as this lady and you had the glimmer of a chance to escape you would take it.
Put it another way, the company I worked for in PNG had tried employing Filipino accountants and abandoned it but a colleague said it was simply a matter of recruitment - you have to go to the country and interview applicants yourself. I'm sure it is the same with your Indian nurses; it is even possible the recruit herself didn't realise she would be out of her depth in a NZ hospital - the recruitment agencies are the real villains taking money from both parties and encouraging both.
BTW - some great nurses in PNG but please leave them there where they are needed.
As I said, there is a wide spectrum. And you are right about the lack of care in recruiting them. It is even worse as they are required to pass an entry to practice qualification in NZ run by the Polytechs. The trouble is that they are so focused on bums on seats and income, that they would give a qualification to a paper bag if it contained money.
As for the desperation to better them selves by getting to NZ by any means including falsified qualifications. I totally disagree and I hope that some day you are looked after by a team of such unqualified people.
Re a dishonest Indian culture I also know a few decent Indians but they would be the first to agree with me.
If you have any further doubt review all the cases that the Nursing Council has taken against nurses for malpractice.
My former colleague Dipak Patel (not an unusual name) returned to India twenty years after he had left aged 10; he was shocked by the dirt and corruption. I'm not denying the problem and I do not want inexperienced people nursing me. My argument is you should not condemn a culture for actions based on desperation. The most upright person I ever met was my grandmother and she said 60 years ago that she would have no trouble stealing if her children were hungry. I place the blame not on India's corrupt culture but on New Zealand's naivety. We are stupid because we don't realise the difficulties of life in the 3rd world and the desperation to escape to any country with a welfare state; our being the cheapest English speaking country makes us a target. Our nurses go overseas and are replaced by nurses from the 3rd world some great and some dangerously inexperienced; taking those great nurses does the nurse a big favour but not the country of origin.
Yep I have family nursing who say the same - with the odd exception as there are some very good Indian and Phillipino Nurses.
That said, general consensus is they are not science based taught, most seem to have more care worker type training. In reality the modern nurse needs the level of training a Doctor may have had in the past - such is the advancement in medicine and treatment.
Throw in a lack of English and it's not great. Another reason good Kiwi nurses are bailing.
There is another problem that doesn't get talked about. Some male Indian nurses get to a position of authority and bring with them some of the attitudes toward women that we see in India. I know Kiwi nurses who feel powerless to confront this, so leave or shift to other areas. They need to speak up for themselves, but unfortunately, generally they are not assertive enough. It is not just kiwi nurses that have this problem. I know of young female Kiwi engineers who have similar problems also.
Again though you have to be fair because it is only a few that behave this way and many are thoroughly decent. Blind prejudice can be very hurtful and unkind to some very decent Indian chaps, which we have also witnessed. I suppose that it was only a generation ago that there were certain "respectable"European doctors and specialists that a nurse dare not enter a lift alone with also.
The roadmap indicators are there.
The big push to get 90% vaccinated and MyCOVIDrecord.nz says in November you’ll be able to download vaccination certificates to use locally and overseas.
Makes me wonder if a nationwide move to level 2 is coming soon but the unvaccinated people will find they won’t have same freedoms and choices as everyone else.
Ummm, so download a certificate or a badge or something.
Do you print them onto holographic paper or are they in blockchain format? And at the other end when you have to present such proof, what system do they have to track that your certificate matches you?
Do you have to prove that you actually got jabbed twice and didn't send a friend along? All I was asked for with both jabs was my name and date of birth I think. No need to show any form of id to prove it was me getting injected.
Re: roadmap. Here are some ideas:
1. Stop the daily pedaling of fear. It's making people, and politicians hysterical. https://youtu.be/b0x8meVJkMw
2. Abolish all quarantine facilities. Have a simple inexpensive rapid antigen test upon arrival, and if sick quarantine at home.
3. Return to normal accepting that covid is endemic, and not scary.
More worryingly expect that there are a lot of GP practices being caught in the sudden shaft of the government’s searchlight(s.) This is a sudden and profound shift of covid response and responsibility thereof and if it is recalled how this sector was initially disregarded in the vaccine roll out then don’t be surprised then, that there is again at play here, little pre-organisation and planning. A sudden dump more accurately.
They are just assuming that GPs will man (person?) up and pull their coals out of the fire.GPs have done a great job swabbing and vaxxing and encouraging the vaccine hesitant, but being expected to mingle in crowded covid positive houses on a daily basis is pushing it.And swabbing and vaxxing is a big workload and won't go away soon
Many/most doctors don't do house calls any more, uneconomic, not enough time, but Messrs Little and Connolly(Surgeon) may not know that..
Kate, please, please. Why be so naughty. See Judith's comments 11:54 am this morning, an hour before this article was posted.
Agree with them or not, but why pretend they don't exist?
NZ went all-in on the elimination strategy & it was effective in 2020 but Labour’s failure to plan for Delta has meant it has failed in 2021. It’s clear the Government doesn’t know what to do next.
11:54 AM · Oct 14, 2021·Twitter Web App
https://mobile.twitter.com/JudithCollinsMP/status/1448421869292437504?r…
Once we hit 85% double vax, National’s plan would allow fully vaccinated travellers to come to NZ from low & medium-risk countries. We should be aiming for this by Xmas. National’s plan would end the lottery of human misery that is MIQ, boosting tourism & reuniting families.
... feeling like a smuggy bear right now , having voted for ACT in 2020 ....
But .... here is the big " but " , one Winston Peters has arisen from the ashes to once again place New Zealand First .....
... so , there'll be a two pronged attack on this insane government : Peter's plus Seymour ....
so 71 cases today in Auckland -- numebrs expected to rise significantly and for a long period of time -- ONE yes ONE in managed isolation -- and most days its 3 or under -- Is it actually time to remove MIQ altogether or at least drop it to 5 days and then self isolate at home -- if people are fully vaccinated and have a - test on departure - this would not only free up these beds for + cases but also save us a fortune not to mention finally allow Kiwis to come home !
I can see no real point in MIQ when we are going to have 100+ cases a day in Auckland many unlinked -- and anybody who lives in Auckland can see that the L3 restrictions are only being loosely followed at best -- and flagrantly ignored in a large number of people
Singapore has had 57,000 more cases in the past 28 days than New Zealand has had thru the entirety of this outbreak, yet its Health system , although pushed, has not been exposed like New Zealand for the abject failure of this government and previous, to invest meaningfully in its healthcare system in proportion to its population, . Now the tide goes out as covid becomes endemic.
Impressive website: https://www.moh.gov.sg/
from which: "Over the last 28 days, of the 61,274 infected individuals, 98.5% had no or mild symptoms, 1.1% required oxygen supplementation, 0.1% required ICU care, and 0.2% has died. "
That 0.2% equates to a typical death rate of 0.1% for a non-Covid developed country.
Over 70s in New Zealand account for 3.8 percent of all community linked cases ,yet account for 75 percent of all cases dying from or with Covid. In Singapore 103 /130 deaths (or 79 percent) over the past 28 days are aged over 70, almost all have significant comorbidities. A vaccine is not going to cure their heart failure/ lung cancer/ end stage renal failure et al .
I'm over 70 with a health condition. If I die from Covid-19 in the next year it will shorten my life by about 8 years. And the best years are often at the end. If heaven forbid, my grandson dies of Covid-19 in the same year that will be 70 years of his life lost. I'm willing to make more of a sacrifice for my grandson. But please don't write us over 70's off too casually. Some of us will be mourned. Besides absence of over 70s will greatly reduce the wisdom in comments on this website.
Perhaps some more substantial government advice on the plan for boosters might provide some comfort then. In all of my life and work experience, I have never ever encountered an outfit like this penny dreadful government and their inability to think beyond their own noses. The future for them is nowt but a blank canvas.
It's just so sad. Rob talked of this a month ago.
The Government's business adviser on the Covid-19 recovery is frustrated over the lack of progress in getting officials to work together with the private sector to solve major issues linked to the pandemic.
Former Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB that he spoke to businesses every day that were keen to help out.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-govt-busine…
Not everyone needs boosters. Even though IgG levels decline the immune system should remember the infection.
Lapun , I appreciate your comment. Our situation is simple, I have an EPA for my mother , who had a stroke last October to add to her growing list of medical curiosities .At the time of the stroke she lived alone. . She recovered well but circumstance led to her being placed into residential care. She received her second vaccination dose some 5 months ago. Two weeks ago we purchased an Auckland home, for her to move out of residential care as soon as we have a window period so that she can spend time with her grandchildren . They are unvaccinated, and very unlikely to be vaccinated. I note also that your grandchild is eight .
My mother in the UK is 73 has type 1 diabetes and mild asthma. She caught covid (prior to vaccination) and didnt even notice until she lost her sense of taste and smell. By that point she was already over it. She is now double vaccinated as well. Had younger members of the family in their early fifties get long covid which knocked them for a bit. Fortunately none of my UK family or friends have died of it and their experiences range from a heavy cold through to a scary flu. Risk increases with age but most people still recover completely. From what I can see from their social media posts, life is going on normally and Brexit is more of a disruption to daily life than Covid.
Well done SG! We need to stop with the fearmongering and start highlighting how most vaccinated people are either not infected or experience little or no symptoms. Unfortunately we have been used to zero cases on a daily basis and even 1 case closes Auckland for months on end.
Less control from the government and more attention on being able to pivot as required.
For a month it’s been total mantra of 90% and we are “safe”
Now it’s when we open border at 90% we will get 5000 cases a week in Auckland and Northland. So much for 94% effective at prev infection
When it’s 90% Ave vaccination then S Auckland will be about 70%
that is problem but not allowed to discuss it
The preventing infection part drops off pretty rapidly. The preventing hospitalisation lasts longer.
My wife's extended family has a large cohort of anti-vaxxers. Some of them are pushing 60, 70 and 80 years of age. They wont take the vaccine come hell or high water.
Might be time for me to invest in some popcorn.
'PhDs ...can be persuaded by a reasoned discussion.' Don't think so.
The Astro Physicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson, as an atheist, noted it wasn't the scientifically uneducated mass that believed there was God that was a worry, but the 8% of his fellow PhD Astro Physicists, that even though studied the heavens and could see to the edge of space, still believed in God, as in the type of the 'man in the clouds looking down on us.' Some of these people expressing the opinion that even though they knew what they believed in was not logical, they couldn't throw off the shackles of their upbringing, or this 'feeling' they had.
This goes both ways of course as in the absence of a belief in God, many are just as happy to believe in a Govt. substitute and blindly follow anything proposal, without any evidence.
Squeeze large families into inadequate homes and garages to live and ..............gosh, covid spreads.
Maybe it's time we acknowledged yet another failure due to mass immigration and overcrowded and inadequate housing?
Nah....much easier to deflect the failings of our great leaders (the knights and dames) and blame the poor sods who can't afford anything but a garage to live in,
This is where lack of logic leads.
Picnics, gatherings, queues in buzz stores, KFC's.... all good. Gathering in vaccination centres, on AirNZ 787 (!) ... all good as well!
And this push, push, push to vaccinate .... oh hold on. The vaccines have the expiry date ?!?!?!
NO WORRIES - we just extended 'USE BY DATE' by 3 months ! (not much ... just 50%!)
Yes, here is the link to MEDSAFE website.
Last page!
NO WORRIES - we just extended 'USE BY DATE' by 3 months ! (not much ... just 50%!)
Yes, based on data from the manufacturer that the vaccine is more stable under correct storage conditions than initially stated. USA, Israel and others have done the same. Sorry, no conspiracy/political points to be scored, just good science.
https://ncpa.org/newsroom/qam/2021/08/23/fda-extends-pfizer-vaccine-exp…
“He said a “risk-based” approach was required, as there simply won’t be enough beds in managed isolation and quarantine facilities to accommodate for all the Covid-19 cases.”
Who would you rather have in your house? A positive Covid-19 community case or a double vaxxed overseas returning kiwi with a negative Covid test?
Our government knows very little about risk management. It’s a pity they didn’t plan for the possibility that a large outbreak might happen in NZ.
Yes, what, 50 -70 cases. Pretty sick that many on here are gloating over it, and can't wait for it to get worst so they can rant on how bad the government is doing , and how they told us this would happen.
they ignore what happened across the ditch , with 2500-3000 cases daily, and multiple deaths. Let alone the rest of the world.
Fact is , we , as a nation , have done extremely well. the team of 5 million concept worked. Now, there are a few rough edges, but we are still in a better position than most of the world.
.
"Most of the world" made a total meal of their response. That's not setting a particularly high bar to get over before you pat yourself on the back. Perhaps if we'd done a bit less backpatting and a bit more 'following the actual recommendations of the independent reports around rapid testing' then we wouldn't be in this mess.
I don’t think there is any doubt that the kid glove approach to criminals in South Auckland fanned the flames of what was an inevitable outbreak. Looks like we might get 75-80% vaccination, and devil take the hindmost then. Stay at home if you want to be safe. Seymour is spot on re MIQ. Very few cases now among returnees. Double jabbed CITIZENS returning home on one way tickets should be allowed to self isolate at home. Same as home detention. This should be done immediately to alleviate real suffering in many families.
By the numbers: Total patched and prospect gang members (October 2017- August 2019)
Auckland City 230 (18.6 per cent increase)
Bay of Plenty 1380 (30.4 per cent increase)
Canterbury 480 (16.2 per cent increase)
Central 640 (30.1 per cent increase)
Counties/Manukau 760 (21.4 per cent increase)
Eastern 1041 (30 per cent increase)
Northland 376 (-2.3 per cent decrease)
Southern 217 (61.9 per cent increase)
Tasman 124 (82.4 per cent increase)
Waikato 556 (44 per cent increase)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/116342180/patched-gang-member…
What a load of waffle of here. People in NZ are just going to do what my cousin in the UK did when the whole family got Covid in the first round. They got sick, stayed at home and didn't tell the authorities. Nobody wants to get carted of to an MIQ and treated like a leper. What is sad is that the government has had 18 months to strengthen the healthcare system and has done SFA. They could have increased wages for starters to both retain and attract new staff. It must be sheer panic for Labour now as there was no Plan B for when elimination failed. They have set an unrealistically high vaccination rate as an excuse to keep everyone in lockdown and this is to cover their own arses because they know a high death rate will be on their heads.
they are following the lead of NHS england where you stay home and they supply you with an oximeter and told to keep a diary of the readings.get yourself to ED if the reading drops to danger level.probably a good idea to buy one as they dont cost much and put it with your covid survival kit.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.