68 new Covid-19 cases; Outbreak contained to Auckland & Wellington

Thursday's Covid-19 update: 68 new cases in the community - 2 in Wellington, the others in Auckland; 277 cases in total; 495 locations of interest

26th Aug 21, 1:19pm by Jenée Tibshraeny

Thursday update:

New cases in the community: 68 - 2 in Wellington (household contacts), the rest in Auckland

Total cases in the community: 277 - 14 in Wellington, the rest in Auckland

Links between cases: 154 epidemiologically linked, 123 unlinked

Number of locations of interest: 495 - these will be updated here every 2 hours

Number of contacts identified: 24,402

Portion of contacts followed up with by officials: 65%. Around 17.5% of contacts were only indentified on Wednesday

Portion of contacts tested: 71%

Contact tracing capacity: Training for new contact tracers currently underway (100 people trained on Wednesday). There will be 1400 contact tracers in call centres by the end of the day

Vaccination rate: 26% of eligible population fully vaccinated, 46% have had one dose. 73% of New Zealanders aged 30+ have either booked to have a vaccine or have had at least one dose

Vaccinations done on Wednesday: 87,772

Details: Case numbers aren't growing exponentially, cases are generally linked, people generally aren't getting infected by being at the same locations as infected people. IE New cases have only emerged from 13 of the 495 locations of interest

Strategy: Elimination remains the strategy. Goal is to up vaccination rates, so lockdowns don't need to continue to be a key response to community outbreaks

Lockdown: Government will provide an alert level update on Friday

Community cases in hospital: 15 - all stable, none in ICU

Testing: 41,739 tests processed on Wednesday

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206 Comments

by HouseMouse | 26th Aug 21, 1:24pm 1629941097

277 cases.
12 in hospital, none in ICU, no deaths.
I realise the hospital / ICU / fatality numbers will probably sadly increase as a %, but even so - is Level 4 lockdown really justified based on these kind of stats?

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 1:38pm 1629941893

At what point would you institute a level 4 lockdown? After the horse has already bolted?

We've just seen 1 case turn into 277 in a few weeks. Pretty sobering and consistent with case numbers multiplying by 6 every week. Give it a fortnight of no lockdowns to wait and see and we'll be at ~10,000. Give it a month, ~360,000.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 1:59pm 1629943196

We've just seen 1 case turn into 277 in a few weeks.

Actually at the time case A was infected, which was probably the preceding Thursday/Friday, it seems like there were already about a dozen cases in the community. Then over the weekend, those cases went to large events, eg Bayleys and Mitre 10 conference events, and church services.

By the time case A went for their test on Monday afternoon, there were likely upwards of 50 people who had contracted COVID over the weekend. By the time lockdown started on Tuesday night, it's likely to have been upwards of 100 people.

So it's not like "1 person infected hundreds in a couple of days", it's actually "that 1 person was just the tip of an iceberg that was already exponentially growing once the data caught up with us".

Certainly the case can be made that we need easily accessible saliva testing that can provide quick results. If such tests were routinely available, we may have had someone else testing positive for COVID prior to that weekend, and the case numbers may not have gotten nearly this high. Even having the positive result back on Monday afternoon from case A and going into lockdown that night instead of Tuesday could have made a big difference.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 2:14pm 1629944047

I was basing my maths purely on the single case in MIQ arriving on the 7th August, not on the first detected case. Slightly under 3 weeks, so the numbers are a little worse than I stated - I also rounded down from 6.5 to 6 for simplicity.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:37pm 1629945457

Ahh right, had assumed you meant the tested case. Anyway, my comment lays out the recent history for anyone who wasn't quite sure how it all fits together.

by Big Jim | 26th Aug 21, 2:00pm 1629943238

good question
Doesnt quite fit the scary risk narrative & the must jab your kids and everything that moves
The population is basically unvaccinated for this outbreak

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 2:19pm 1629944396

It is, in fact, a bad question. Those numbers are influenced heavily by the fact we've been in lock-down for >7 days now. That should be obvious to anybody, and it bothers me that it's not.

by JustAnOpinion | 26th Aug 21, 3:00pm 1629946849

Do not be surprised, what might have been comedy actually foretells a change in the makeup of our species.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsJFNQd62Wk

by Big Jim | 26th Aug 21, 2:57pm 1629946633

You are saying those that are positive aren't representative of the general population... who knows
So why is the ratio of hospitalisations so low?

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 3:15pm 1629947757

I really don't know how you inferred that from my comment.

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 3:15pm 1629947703

How much evidence from other countries does one need... there's mountains of it out there.

A CDC study that analyzed COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles found that un-vaccinated people are 29 times more likely to be hospitalised than vaccinated. Severe side-effects from vaccines are extremely rare. In NZ 23% of people are fully vaccinated, so we're not ready. In poorly vaccinated parts of the US hospitals are once again reaching breaking point. ICUs are struggling in a country with a much higher proportion of ICU beds per capita.

NZ, at this stage, will not cope. More people need to be fully vaccinated.

by Big Jim | 26th Aug 21, 4:02pm 1629950537

FULLY vaccinated of course is a moving goal post ... see Israel & now UK

"Britain is starting to plan for a COVID-19 vaccine booster campaign later this year after top vaccine advisers said it might be necessary to give third shots to the elderly and most vulnerable from September. .."
https://www.aol.com/news/covid-jab-protection-wanes-within-071716820-10…

As for evidence its well and truly early days (and that applies to vaccine side effects also)

by northman46 | 26th Aug 21, 4:32pm 1629952324

My Dad in the UK is having his third jab (his booster) next week. He's had no side effects, and so far, is living relatively a normal life. I'm for one glad he is vaccinated, and that their vaccinations are so far ahead of us (only had my first this week - feeling great).

What solution would you recommend? Do you prefer no vaccine and forever lock downs? Or no vaccine and we get on with it (letting those who will die, die)? Or something else?

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 4:52pm 1629953537

What's your point? Nobody thinks that vaccination is perfect, but it is definitely more protective than being unvaccinated.

"As for evidence its well and truly early days (and that applies to vaccine side effects also)"

How does that also apply to vaccine side effects? Please, tell me more about any other vaccine ever that has continued to produce unwanted side-effects months or years down the track. You really don't have a clue.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 26th Aug 21, 9:23pm 1629969792

Doc, you can’t argue from a point of scientific literacy when your opposite is essentially illiterate. When they can pick up the Lancet and critically understand the data you may be on the same page. I want to smash my head into a brick wall with some of the antivaxxers.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:07am 1629979660

WOW an AOL link... 3 decades late.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:06am 1629979604

WOW an AOL link... 3 decades late (far too useless and unfactual even back then). You might as well be posting from a creationist blog.

by CourtJester | 26th Aug 21, 2:03pm 1629943392

What would those numbers look like if we didn't have a lockdown? That's the question you have to ask yourself.
In many European countries the death toll is 1500+ per million, despite some sort of (late, lazy and not strict enough) lockdown.
So the question you're asking is: is a few weeks of lockdown worse than having 7500+ kiwis die of Covid?

by HouseMouse | 26th Aug 21, 2:21pm 1629944468

It's a fair point, especially if you look at it in a snapshot in time

But is is still a valid point in one or two years if we are still having a covid outbreak?

At what point, if ever, do the significant costs of lockdown - loneliness, anxiety, suicide, economic impacts, debt, negative impacts on the development of children - outweigh the benefits?

With all those costs factored in, which will also compound, do you still favour lockdowns in a year's time?

by CourtJester | 26th Aug 21, 4:54pm 1629953645

Funny how suddenly people are concerned about mental health, anxiety, suicide, debt and all that due to lockdown...
Hello?! The housing crisis has been going on for a decade. How many lives has that ruined / claimed?

by Pa1nter | 26th Aug 21, 5:14pm 1629954845

I'm not sure anyone's ever died from not being able to buy a villa in the central suburbs.

by Albert2020 | 26th Aug 21, 6:07pm 1629958070

What chance do you think those kids growing up in motels will have?

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 6:34pm 1629959674

Exactly. And this century. Three different governments. It has done nothing but get worse. Every one of them vowed to do the opposite. There it is.

by sharetrader | 26th Aug 21, 6:43pm 1629960222

and each one is blaming the other

by Big Jim | 26th Aug 21, 3:03pm 1629946986

the question you need to also ask is how many more weeks/months of lockdown are we happy to run with? ... there is no clear finish line here - see Israel

whats the plan for the next outbreak?

by Sluggy | 27th Aug 21, 7:08am 1630004902

Happy to run with ? How many can you afford ? I know this time if the year I've got 1 more week before I go back regardless of the level.

by NZChinese | 26th Aug 21, 2:36pm 1629945400

It is all relevant. We have a 4.3% hospitalisation rate in a controlled environment (i.e. lockdown). This number is around 1% to seasonal flu, and we do not control people flows in the flu season. Given a 3-4 days delay in getting the testing result, I think the L4 lockdown is still needed at this stage.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:11am 1629979885

The hospitalization rate and death rate from flu drops substantially with lockdown. Your argument actually leads to the logic we should be locking down for flu season as well because of the remarkable lower rate of infection, hospitalisation, and death that is completely avoidable with a low social cost if most of those who could remote, do indoor exercise, activites & wfh do so with prejudice.

by brot | 26th Aug 21, 3:03pm 1629947021

Absolutely - Level 4 lockdown is what has meant we're seeing new daises in the 10's vs the 100's - 1000's. There's no exponential growth. That's because of the Level 4 Lockdowns.

Also because these cases have gone through by in large younger groups, so we have better outcomes. You loosen restrictions now and let this into older generations and you all of a sudden see every ICU bed in this country full with people dying because of a lack of ventilators like what we've seen in other countries like the USA.

This shorter lockdown means we're at a point were we can already consider re-opening large parts of the country in coming days. If we hadn't done this. Wed be facing the same situation that Australia is right now. Very long half baked lockdowns extending for months and months on end.

by Squishy | 26th Aug 21, 5:17pm 1629955068

It takes people a couple of weeks to die from the time they've been admitted to hospital.

Here again our friends in Britain have "done the research":
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare…

by WellingtonInvestor | 27th Aug 21, 12:34am 1629981246

You are joking right? This virus is always up 14 days ahead, so the cases now were mainly infected prior to lockdown or are infections to other people in the household. If they hadn't gone into lockdown, Auckland would be anther NSW with mass death and others with other health problems like long covid. NZ is largely unvaccinated so there was no choice. NZ does not have teh health capacity to deal with an outbreak. Australia have better capacity as they are richer and have double the ICU capacity.

by SmoKey | 26th Aug 21, 1:25pm 1629941112

500 by end of this week ? Hope it starts petering out quickly.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:01pm 1629943295

I think it will from here. A journalist finally asked the question I've wanted to know. At present, Jacinda and McIllray (whatever her name is), said they were not aware of any new non-household transmission of COVID occurring after lockdown started.

Also of the 400+ locations of interest, only 13 are known to have led to new infections. Put those two statistics together, and it seems the high case numbers are all from pre-lockdown, or household contacts of those people.

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 2:27pm 1629944846

Yep a pertinent question for once. And yes agree the answer is encouraging. Is that then the first indication of containment being likely?

by 7jai | 26th Aug 21, 1:25pm 1629941154

Jacinda keeps saying how she has evidence that the 'elimination strategy' is the best strategy. I want to see that evidence. Just like how there is evidence to support the elimination strategy, there is also much evidence to say that it ISNT the best strategy. Show me your evidence, and I will show you mine?

No one talks about mental health. No one talks about families being separated. No one talks about the small businesses that closed shop. No one talks about those who were poor, and now got even poorer.

by Albert2020 | 26th Aug 21, 1:34pm 1629941690

Great article in the granny herald today that supports the elimination approach. In contrast you have an opinion piece by no other than hoskings that is very short of evidence and rather blinded by ideology

by printer8 | 26th Aug 21, 2:39pm 1629945597

Albert
Hoskings is a jilted interviewer . . . and we know how vindictive jilted lovers can be. :)

by Nifty1 | 26th Aug 21, 1:39pm 1629941965

Wow calm down, be kind... Being kind is not questioning authority or thinking about problems. Jacinda and Bloomfield have got this under control. Kia kaha

by fmr ca | 26th Aug 21, 1:42pm 1629942145

Totally agree. The UK, US, Europe and now Australia are not pursuing elimination but we somehow think it will work here? How many billions of borrowed money will they throw at the lockdowns this time? We can't keep doing this, and were only ever supposed to do it once. I'm surprised more people aren't questioning it. But I suppose it doesn't affect people who are in the public service or on the wage subsidy. I think a lot of small businesses will go to the wall this time.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 1:48pm 1629942480

Australia tried to eliminate it and failed. Now they have a ~level 3 lockdown in at least a couple of states until vaccines are rolled out - this is our main alternative right now.

Neither the UK nor the US had the political leadership to go for something like elimination when they had the chance. Johnson and Trump both belittled it and ended up in Hospital close to death in return.

by printer8 | 26th Aug 21, 2:43pm 1629945781

mcd
Australia failed to eliminate as they had a Claytons lockdown - a lockdown when you aren’t having a lockdown.

by Becnz | 26th Aug 21, 6:55pm 1629960941

Nearly 10 per cent of payrolled employees in Sydney were stood down during the first five weeks of the NSW lockdown, a new report from the Bureau of Statistics shows.

by Miguel | 26th Aug 21, 1:42pm 1629942164

Just look at the excess mortality stats for any country that failed to control covid. Our excess mortality went down during our lockdown.

Our economy has done better than most. Etc etc etc

by Big Jim | 26th Aug 21, 2:05pm 1629943534

and the road toll was incredibly good during last lockdown
maybe we should stay in bed?

by MLSmith1 | 26th Aug 21, 3:41pm 1629949310

Love it... these numpties that think it's all good our approach cannot see the corollary.

The majority of us know for now that lock down is the only viable option until we get a handle on where Delta is heading..

Thing I'm most pissed at is the lack of urgency prior to this breakout on vaccination. Govt couldn't even spruik vaccination as they didn't have security of supply! NOW they see the predicament and the narrative is changed to vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate...

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 4:21pm 1629951673

Best sum up today including mine. That folks is the status quo, like it or lump it.

by brisket | 26th Aug 21, 1:45pm 1629942333

The evidence suggests that lockdowns are bloody fantastic for the economy. Unemployment goes down, house prices skyrocket. Health gains, economic gains, what's not to love? The question is why we would ever *leave* lockdown when the benefits are so apparent. If a four-week lockdown brings a 20% property increase, why not make it 10 weeks and go for the 50?

by Brock Landers | 26th Aug 21, 5:13pm 1629954808

20 weeks for a cool hundred.

Be quick.

by Becnz | 26th Aug 21, 6:58pm 1629961091

Its called government debt equals decrease it NZD purchasing power or another word inflation.

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 2:01pm 1629943299

How can elimination have been the best strategy given the scene today. You might eliminate in NZ as before but you can’t eliminate the rest of the world. Therefore Delta could arrive here again through MIQ or customs areas, freight etc any time again, just as it has this time. The Prime Minister therefore misleads by omission. What the situation actually is, and yes there is little choice about it right now, is a strategy of elimination coupled to lockdowns whenever there is a border breach because that obviously means covid is no longer eliminated. For example if there should be transmission to the community by the three cases in Christchurch MIQ through a slip in the weekend, then the whole damn lockdown cycle starts all over again.

by donny11 | 26th Aug 21, 1:59pm 1629943180

Apparently there is a difference between elimination and eradication. In that elimination doesn't actually mean elimination & eradication means eradication

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 2:05pm 1629943529

From where we are now, we essentially have 3 choices:

1. Elimination via hard (level 4) lockdown, then reopen to level 1 or 2 until vaccination rates are high enough to open up more.
2. "Flatten the curve" via a less strict (level 2 or 3) lockdown for about 3 months and hope hospitals don't get overwhelmed until vaccination rates are high enough to open up more.
3. Reopen now and watch people die

From these choices #1 seems the least bad option to me, it at least gives us the chance of reopening before vaccinations hit a high enough level as that's not going to be until November or December. Remember those under 30 aren't even eligible to book at appointment yet.

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 2:14pm 1629944082

Don’t think there is any alternative as 1 either. But think about this. If the vaccinations reach the target, which is still unknown, regardless of when that may be, if those that remain unvaccinated are still in sufficient numbers to potentially overwhelm the hospital system. The government quite rightly prioritised keeping Covid numbers down so as not to compromise the hospitals so logically while potential of that risk remains so too does that priority and with it the need to resort to lockdowns. The only way out of that impasse has to be some good effort to bring hospital care etc up a level. Establish independent specialised covid treatment facilities in order to keep them out of hospital, at least until the ICU stage.

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 2:13pm 1629944016

Yeah, I think it's likely we will have further lockdowns after hitting the vaccination "target" to flatten the curve and avoid hospitals getting overwhelmed as covid rips through those that weren't vaccinated. Probably not level 4, but at least 2 seems likely.

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 2:21pm 1629944514

Yes to me that is as unavoidable as it is logical. So why didn’t our Prime Minister take the trouble to expand her explanation and information to encompass that likely scenario. Hope it wasn’t just because it would be unpopular to put it out there. New Zealanders have not only had on and off lockdowns they have had the potential of them hanging over them too for nigh on 18 months. The continuing of the good compliance to date will not be encouraged by either an increase in the tempo, uncertainty and being surprised by the unexpected.

by house hunter | 26th Aug 21, 2:52pm 1629946347

One possible reason is they don't want to confuse people. If you talk too much, and in too much detail, about what is going to happen then you'll get people focusing on that instead of what they're supposed to be doing now. Obviously this government is all about the comms and messaging, and a big part of that is keeping it super simple.

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 3:43pm 1629949430

Also all plans are going to be uncertain at this time. If they release their plan and then have to make changes to it in a month of two they will get railed for being inconsistent, it's a no win situation.

by printer8 | 26th Aug 21, 2:49pm 1629946161

morepork
Agreed
Six months from now we are going to be a highly vaccinated, mask-wearing in public, and constant scanner population . . . and I have no problem with that.

by Brock Landers | 26th Aug 21, 4:05pm 1629950734

Mask wearing up public.

The Taliban approve!

by PonziKiwi | 26th Aug 21, 5:05pm 1629954351

Printer8

https://youtu.be/dSyWoAd0gS8

by Sluggy | 27th Aug 21, 7:14am 1630005288

You will be on your own in your safety closet captain.

by NZChinese | 26th Aug 21, 2:40pm 1629945627

Because they were too slow on the vaccine rollout (not entirely their fault, IMO). However, it leaves us with no other options other than this sort of hard lockdown.

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 5:47pm 1629956836

Agreed, but I would contend it is entirely their fault. Not only has it been too slow it was started too late. The government put its reliance on elimination and that being protected by border security. But there was no back up in case the border was breached. Instead ordering of vaccines was not prioritised and restricted to just one supplier. It was foolhardy to believe the border could remain watertight and there were enough previous slip ups to give notice to that. That failure by deciding there was no need to acquire vaccines early and in adequate quantities is the very reason a heck of New Zealanders find themselves unprotected by a vaccine right now.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:20am 1629980419

Er mental health has been in the ditch before 2020 even arrived. Housing was hopeless. Kids being excluded from school just from the state of their birth. You could say we have been killing kids and adults for decades and the child abuse rates are actually far less now that we stopped sexually assaulting them, electrocuting them and overdosing them against their will to the point of near death en masse in institutions (and dropped down to only rates in the hundreds and dropped electrocutions altogether). You want some heart rending just look up ABUSE IN CARE. You are welcome to know the same issues that presented then are still around today with over 250,000 severely affected and the mental struggles become intergenerational so that is now 250,000++ kiwis heading to the ditch before 2020.

by WellingtonInvestor | 27th Aug 21, 12:37am 1629981428

Can you provide stats on the problems over mental health from the last lockdown? I understand the stats showed nothing out of the ordinary.
Also what about the mental health problems created when a child loses their parent to covid, which has already happened in NZ?
NZ would have had over 10,000 deaths if we had been the UK, and the UK have a better ICU capacity per capita. Think of all the mental health problems caused by that, as well as the death, and long covid etc. Plus we would still have needed more lockdown, and the economic issues would have been even worse.

by nigelh | 26th Aug 21, 1:33pm 1629941619

Today's road show preparing everyone for extended lock down. The "new" unit established to randomly check vaccinated people will confine themselves to the group where saline solution was given to a few.

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 1:34pm 1629941670

"73% of New Zealanders aged 30+ have either booked to have a vaccine or have had at least one" - that's all well and good, but what fraction of people don't show up to their appointments? They must have the data but I haven't seen it anywhere

by fmr ca | 26th Aug 21, 1:49pm 1629942571

Such an irrelevant statistic, when bookings might be for 3 months out. The government is good at spinning numbers to suit their narrative. Even at 80k per day the rate of vaccination is very slow and it is going to be months before we are at 80% double jabbed.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 1:54pm 1629942852

The only relevance of the stat is to give us some idea of vaccine hesitancy. I'm pleasantly surprised to see holdouts at only 27% and I expect this will fall as more and more people book in. 80% coverage of eligible people seems achievable, hopefully higher. This is our main way out of lockdown, or the threat of more lockdowns.

by FCM | 26th Aug 21, 1:58pm 1629943116

yep and AKL & North Island wont be out of L4-3 until they been doubled Jab which will be months..not weeks. I don't think people get that, they ratting of stats for one Jab..you need two..and that process is over months.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:02pm 1629943368

yep and AKL & North Island wont be out of L4-3 until they been doubled Jab which will be months..

Thanks for presenting your opinion as fact.

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 2:09pm 1629943756

Seems accurate to me. Under 30s aren't even eligible to make a booking yet, so at minimum it's Sep 1 when they become eligible + 6 weeks to get the second dose. That's 7 weeks right there if everyone got the jab on the first day which obviously isn't possible.

When I booked I managed to get a slot in early September, but most centres didn't have slots until October. So add 6 weeks for the second jab and you're looking at mid November to early December, so 3+ months.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:11pm 1629943884

No one in the government has said ending the current lockdown is dependent on high vaccination rates. This isn't Australia.

by morepork | 26th Aug 21, 2:15pm 1629944114

I'll have more hope if the daily cases numbers stop increasing which they haven't yet. Aucklanders are in for a tough time.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:38pm 1629945534

Sure, but it was 61 yesterday and 68 today. That looks like it can be the start of a plateau, or together may be the peak.

by Brock Landers | 26th Aug 21, 4:13pm 1629951209

Depends on how many more of your mates are out door-knocking with Labour propaganda.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 9:42pm 1629970959

Firstly I don't have any mates that deliver Labour party material.

Secondly it turns out the mailer was actually delivered in July, and the guy who ran screaming to the media about it simply hadn't emptied his mailbox since then.

So bit of an own goal there really.

by Albert2020 | 26th Aug 21, 6:10pm 1629958220

Exactly, if there was no control we would have exponential increases such as a virus does giving free reign

by Sluggy | 27th Aug 21, 7:18am 1630005498

Am I the only one who has noticed hardly anyone at the testing units ? Quick ring around and most friends have noted the same in ak. Numbers will plunge along with my sales, and maybe my staff.

by Nifty1 | 26th Aug 21, 1:37pm 1629941821

No surprises, we're in for a long lockdown. We'll only reopen again when vaccination numbers are 'the highest possible'.

by GV 27 | 26th Aug 21, 1:57pm 1629943043

Well I can't get one before the end of October locally now. Almost no point in booking. I'll try my luck at a walk-up at a pharmacy or GP instead.

by WellingtonInvestor | 27th Aug 21, 12:38am 1629981496

Correction, Auckland is in for a long lockdown. Much of the rest of NZ shouldn' t be. It is about controlling the border.

by Nifty1 | 27th Aug 21, 6:49am 1630003751

Wait & see...this is a tricky virus

by xingmowang | 26th Aug 21, 1:39pm 1629941941

copying what China does to contain Covid (and Delta strain) is an extremely smart and correct move for New Zealand.

Thumb up!! Keep it going!!

by CourtJester | 26th Aug 21, 2:07pm 1629943627

Yes yes, let's copy China. Best country in the world! Should NZ also try to cover up a massive amount of deaths and pretty much everything around the origin of the virus?

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 2:29pm 1629944980

Thumb up what precisely, Comrade X?

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:27am 1629980826

Actually we are far far away from copying China. It takes us over a decade to get a new hospital and hundreds of millions to set up 3 more general beds (not ICU beds) and a couple of decades to realize the massive wage crunch on nurses is cancelling critical services and resulting in severe ward shortages to the point severe patient harm and death occurs. So far away. We don't even sanitize street surfaces and buses. So don't touch anything when you go out while delta's about ok, and with the ER services currently, best not to go out at all.

by Miguel | 26th Aug 21, 1:39pm 1629941998

Over a year into the pandemic and people are still making these sorts of ludicrous arguments.

If you aren’t calculating the illness and death that will be caused by letting co is spread across the country, you aren’t calculating the full cost.

We have already proven it can be contained and have reaped the benefits for a year and have done better than every country that failed to control an outbreak

by Nifty1 | 26th Aug 21, 1:42pm 1629942123

This is Delta mate, it's unstoppable... unless you want to isolate for the rest of your life.

by Miguel | 26th Aug 21, 1:46pm 1629942408

Delta only exists as a result of country after country failing to take early action to control the pandemic at earlier stages.

Your answer is let it spread uncontrolled until we get worse variants that spread faster and/or vaccines are less effective against?

Let’s just keep compounding our mistakes and make things progressively worse shall we?

by Rosenstein | 26th Aug 21, 2:27pm 1629944838

Delta, as with all variants are the product of selection pressures to mutate thanks to mass vaccination hombre.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 2:38pm 1629945480

Delta originated in India in late 2020, several months before their vaccination program began. It was even detected in the UK and US in late February 2021, at which point no more than a few million vaccines had been given in India

But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good story.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-cases-of-variant-…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_India#Graph_of_cu…

by Rosenstein | 26th Aug 21, 4:30pm 1629952215

Indeed it was detected. But did it not gain ascendency concurrently with mass vaccination programs in all three countries? Why?

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 4:57pm 1629953873

Because it spreads more readily than other variants and displaced them. This process took time due to travel restrictions, rolling lockdowns etc.

Why do you think it's related to vaccines? What's your proposed causation here?

by fat pat | 26th Aug 21, 7:12pm 1629961929

Clinical trials of the Pfizer vax began in April 2020. If the vaccine puts selection pressure on the virus to mutate the spike protein then it's not unreasonable to think it may have originated in a vaccinated individual. The counter argument is that there were were probably 100 to 1000x more unvaxed people numbering in the millions who were infected with c19 at the time so it's also reasonable to conclude that the mutations originated in an unvaxed individual. I don't think that we'll never know.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 9:40pm 1629970807

It's speculated that the alpha strain of of the UK evolved in someone who had a weakened or compromised immune system. They were strong enough to combat the virus but not strong enough to properly rid it from their body, giving the virus a good long period to adapt to the host's immune system, then eventually it got passed on to others.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 9:45pm 1629971135

The Pfizer testing was done in the United States, Germany, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina. I think it's extremely unreasonable to think the delta variant, which arose in India, had anything to do with this vaccine.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-a…

There may well be real arguments about vaccines causing selection pressure, but Delta is not it.

by Miguel | 26th Aug 21, 6:48pm 1629960534

Thanks for showing your complete ignorance of the subject. Easy to ignore any future comments you make.

by Dave Moderato | 26th Aug 21, 7:32pm 1629963132

Delta spreads at a daily rate of approx 7%. Under the recent Aussie lockdowns.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:30am 1629981008

Not a useful stat unless you are in an Aussie lockdown... freeforall... as you like it.

by Contrarian | 26th Aug 21, 4:53pm 1629953592

Correct. If we dial back on the strategy we are following and if deaths (mainly of unvaccinated) begin to happen and increase in numbers, then the nay sayers will change their tunes and start criticising more and harder on why we dialled back. Let us continue with what we are doing, which at least is preventing deaths and minimising hospital stays.
Let us suffer a little now, rather than regret enmasse later.

by flyer | 26th Aug 21, 1:42pm 1629942147

I turned off the 1pm show after the Dr Caroline M passed the mantel back to the PM.

I didn't need to be spoken to like a child not did I want to hear other fluff that really we have heard it all before.

by FCM | 26th Aug 21, 1:50pm 1629942606

did that the other day when she started telling us how to cough. Other good news none in the South....L3 by Saturday.

by 7jai | 26th Aug 21, 2:13pm 1629944001

I think they are trying to bore us with their slowwwwww speeecccchhhh tactics. That way, we would not tune in as much and hopefully forget about all the failures they brought to NZ as a government and leadership.

by jeremyr | 26th Aug 21, 2:37pm 1629945466

Too true, being spoken to like a moron, by a moron is not fun. So, the correct thing to do is just zone out and get on with your life.

I'm in the 40-50 age group.

The statistics say so far that my chance of getting sick and dying from Covid19 is .2%, so 1 in 500. This is based on known Covid cases, but Covid cases are actually more like 10x the amount that have tested positive. So, my odds just lengthed to 1 in 5000, or .02%. I'm not fat, unhealthy nor do I have any underlying issues. The people with those issues make up most of that .02%.

Why is it exactly that I should be worried.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 2:23pm 1629944588

1 in 5000 is 0.02%.

by jeremyr | 26th Aug 21, 2:36pm 1629945413

True, and I cannot blame fat fingers either.

by mfd | 26th Aug 21, 2:54pm 1629946496

Common mistake. More to the point - I'm a little younger and healthy so also not worried for myself. The worry is for the rest of the country and not wanting to be part of a chain of transmission.

by Carlos67 | 26th Aug 21, 2:59pm 1629946773

The 40 to 50 age group would be nasty. At least 30% overweight and have other heath conditions on top of that. Unfortunately I think it comes down more to genetics from the actual case feed back I have had. It can range from putting you in bed for 2 weeks with the worst Flu you have ever had in your life to practically you not even knowing you have it. What you don't know for sure is your risk profile and that's the biggest problem for me. If I knew that it would be no worse than a cold then I wouldn't get the jab and let my own body develop the immune response.

by SimonRo | 26th Aug 21, 3:51pm 1629949862

I think the most worrying scenario for someone like you or me is to find yourself rushing a loved one to hospital for some other emergency, knowing that the hospital is already dealing with a bunch of critical Covid victims.

by Albert2020 | 26th Aug 21, 6:14pm 1629958471

You should worry when you come down with another ailment that your age group is prone to (take your pick) and your treatment is subpar or delayed due to having to ration out limited health services.

by muzled | 26th Aug 21, 2:20pm 1629944450

Did you go straight back to listening to the zb troll farm?

by flyer | 26th Aug 21, 3:32pm 1629948750

Nope, instead I read an article about Labour supporters still out and about distributing propaganda materials.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300391806/labour-lock…

by dago | 26th Aug 21, 3:42pm 1629949329

XI would be proud

by dcnbwz | 26th Aug 21, 6:52pm 1629960778

Cheap insults, no facts from you two.

by ex agent | 26th Aug 21, 1:48pm 1629942524

She certainly talks to us like we are children. Power has gone to her head. We should have all been vaccinated months ago. Total incompetence on her part.

by 7jai | 26th Aug 21, 2:12pm 1629943924

Fully agree. She talks like we are complete idiots. I may not be the smartest kid in town, but I ain't no idiot.

I swear, if it was a youtube video, I would click that speed box and accelerate her speech by 2x speed. Then her speech would match back to how a normal person talks.

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 2:27pm 1629944866

This is done intentionally. It is to ensure that those whose intellects aren't as supreme as your own can understand her. While I find it personally irritating, I can at least understand the purpose. Get over it.

by MLSmith1 | 26th Aug 21, 3:35pm 1629948925

I disagree... her style is and always has been to filibuster and propagandise virtue rather than being clear and direct.

I'd imagine at their party meeting she would have similar delivery. In a world where clearness of objective may not be tolerable for majority, why would you want to speak in a clear concise manner!

by dcnbwz | 26th Aug 21, 6:54pm 1629960841

Please post some examples of filibuster and propagandise. It would be good to see what you feel is representative of this.

by paashaas | 26th Aug 21, 7:11pm 1629961912

having her minions ask softball questions in a select committee , with the single and obvious purpose of sabotaging the hearing and dodging any hard questions ( even censured by her own puppet "Speaker" after the event ) - good enough example for you ?

by dcnbwz | 26th Aug 21, 7:28pm 1629962919

Nope. It's a rant by yourself, not an example.

by GV 27 | 26th Aug 21, 9:10pm 1629969049

Every single minister has come into the press conferences this week with 'But first, some good news about vaccinations!". It's the same news over and over again "We immunised a bunch of people!" but it lets you get some points onto the board before you get into the case numbers for the outbreak you shouldn't be having in the first place. Hipkins, Robertson and Ardern have all done this.

I find it easiest to wait until 1:10pm for the information I actually want to hear, given they can barely manage to show up on time to begin with.

by HouseMouse | 26th Aug 21, 10:35pm 1629974106

Was novelty for a couple of days, but I don't bother now and I get annoyed with her propaganda and question dodging. Just check on the Herald.

by Noncents | 26th Aug 21, 6:42pm 1629960139

The pedagogical evidence would suggest drivelling on for 30-40 minutes is not helping anyone.

Clear and consice is the best method. 3-5 clear points is about the maximum most people can handle.

What do we need to actually know?
1. x cases for today, meaning we will stay in
2. Level y until z date
3. We review on w date.
4. Stay safe and be kind.

She can then elaborate on more later for those who are interested.

Leading with "Good news" about how x people ~~got vaccinated~~ booked a vaccination is just politicking.

by ChezD | 27th Aug 21, 3:53pm 1630036386

With all that verbiage, what chance has anyone of understanding much less those that would have switched off due to the politicking. She talks over Ashley and tries to use the information she has obtained from him to say what he should be. Grabs all the questions, even those directed at AB, sprouts a line of garbage and then hands to over to AB. It was much more informative when Hipkins gave his intro and then handed the stage to AB - lets have more of this approach.

by ChezD | 27th Aug 21, 3:53pm 1630036402

by flyer | 26th Aug 21, 2:52pm 1629946334

Exactly. This "good news" BS is really highlighting their slow vaccination rollout. It is nothing to be proud of.

by waymad | 26th Aug 21, 5:57pm 1629957432

Do I infer from this that some sad souls actually listen to sermon time each 1300 hrs?

by Foxglove. | 26th Aug 21, 9:01pm 1629968488

Well there is some interest in observing the rather clear change in our prime minister’s persona. Firstly the high ratings in the polls engendered a quite obvious degree of over confidence and now just any confidence at all on display looks rather unconvincing. Silly really because polls are founded on quicksand. Secondly questions involving bad new are neither welcome nor as easily deflected as before. Unless of course they have first been orchestrated. Thirdly the good news is overshadowed by the bad news. And that too applies to our prime minister and it shows. The previous fluff and feathers presentation looking more like peacock plumes in a funeral parlour.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:35am 1629981328

It has a rating of 9.4/10 on IMDB. That is way better than the Shawshank Redemption, the Godfather, Tiger King, or the Hunger Games.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12511606/
A Sequel Nobody Asked For
"Still think David Tennant should have played Ashley Bloomfield. Putting an unknown in the role was a wasted opportunity."

by Warwick D | 26th Aug 21, 9:47pm 1629971255

Agree. They had a commendable "elimination at the border" strategy but surely that process was designed to simply hold Covid at bay until we were all vaccinated. So why was our vaccination programme so slow in coming? It should not have been a measured "roll out" but should have been initiated and undertaken as rapidly as possible because our MIQ process was always going to be breached at some point and we knew months ago that the Delta variant held a whole new level of transmissibility. What's done is done so no use finger pointing really. We now need to vaccinate like crazy and be able to know who has Covid and who hasn't by having better Covid testing access. Personal saliva test kits would achieve this so I'm not sure why Ministry of Health are still just "considering this option".

by Audaxes | 26th Aug 21, 1:53pm 1629942780

Unite against COVID 19
New Zealand’s stance on ‘people’s vaccine’ for Covid undermines its principled reputation

by GV 27 | 26th Aug 21, 2:00pm 1629943201

Also, not sure you can say that there hasn't been any LOI transmission since L4 given that three supermarkets in West Auckland were closed due to exposure events as recently as the 21st and the notice only went out in the last day or two.

Now we're at serious risk of the exposure events triggering infections in the 'don't care, won't get tested, L4 is just a day off work' deadshit community, and this would be all post L4. We won't know that hasn't happened for at least a week. It almost makes me think what was apparently said has been misinterpreted or misreported.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:08pm 1629943701

Yip, it's a very big risk. On the other hand, of the 400+ known locations of interest, only 13 have resulted in transmission.

So even though there were a few supermarket places of interest post-lockdown, there's reason to be optimistic that no transmission actually resulted, especially if everyone was wearing masks and socially distancing.

by GV 27 | 26th Aug 21, 2:16pm 1629944176

I can tell you from visiting those Countdowns that this hasn't been happening. If you've got essential goods suppliers becoming LOIs in areas with low compliance and customers who are less than enthused than following the letter of the law when it comes to the health orders, then it is extremely premature to declare there's been no post-L4 transmission at LOIs.

I would suggest that given some the behaviour I've seen and been told about at those stores, there's a high chance that these idiots won't get tested, will keep mixing bubbles, won't wear masks and keep transmitting it between themselves while we're patting ourselves on the back. At L3 all hell could break loose.

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:41pm 1629945660

then it is extremely premature to declare there's been no post-L4 transmission at LOIs.

As with everything they say, it's only based on known information. In most respects they're very cautious about offering predictions or guesses.

by donny11 | 26th Aug 21, 2:13pm 1629944007

Well said. Catching 90% of cases is easy. Its the last 10% that is hard. Feeling unwell? Flu like symptoms? Who cares let's go catch up with that bird on tinder I haven't seen in 3 months. Beers & a root beat MIQ.

by GV 27 | 26th Aug 21, 2:19pm 1629944381

"Few Js in the park with the lads late at night, no one will call the cops if we keep the sounds down" and no one is the wiser until one of them heads to a bottle store and we're back at square one. It's worth noting the Westgate store has way more customers than the North West one, which I suspect is largely down to the proximity of the West Liquor a few metres away. That's the kind of mindset you're dealing with. Anecdata on Facebook also suggests that some members of the public are deliberately coughing on staff and one may have had a facemask removed by an irate customer.

Do we really think this is the kind of person who is going to be following lockdown rules, or actually get tested when they do get it? Or who cares about where their kids are at all hours of the night? Of course not. These are the LOIs that matter.

by Rosenstein | 26th Aug 21, 2:07pm 1629943648

Get your vaccines everyone. So we can do it all again in 6 months. Lockdown for boosters.

by dago | 26th Aug 21, 2:21pm 1629944494

Thanks but i won't be getting one this year.

If Delta eventually fizzles out or mutates into something else that isn't as bad, then the government will start getting more resistance. They'll have to drum up something else to promote fear.

by CrispyKahawai | 26th Aug 21, 2:29pm 1629944957

Why not?

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 2:43pm 1629945809

The comment already provides enough information to answer that question.

by youngdumbandbroke | 26th Aug 21, 3:59pm 1629950398

As predicted, like clockwork he's back at it

by Smudge02 | 26th Aug 21, 2:22pm 1629944533

What I have noticed is a lot more people 'pro' vaccination all of a sudden!

by Mr_Jolly | 26th Aug 21, 3:02pm 1629946967

I got a pamphlet in the mail from the Ministry of Health the other day telling me I could book my vax. It was so full of misinformation, it went straight in the bin. The only thing it achieved was to convince me not to get one.

by Believer1980 | 26th Aug 21, 2:43pm 1629945822

Fair is fair. On balance the lockdown approach of NZ, given its isolated position and ease of control over ins and outs that that isolation conveys, worked pretty well compared the alternatives. Even now, a 1 month lockdown seems to be the best out of bad options we realistically have. NZ government has show wisdom in choosing the option and cautious in not finishing it too early.

But NZ lagging behind in vaccination is a major failure. This is were NZ government needed to show their capabilities to do things. And they have failed.
I guess that NZ government has also failed to really enhance the health sector capabilities in the time that they had.

by Pat.T | 26th Aug 21, 2:53pm 1629946437

Going forward when the bulk of our population is vaccinated do we still pursue the elimination strategy.

In the NZ Herald today 44 cases of people being fully vaccinated.

We are going to have to ditch the elimination strategy at some point.

by Believer1980 | 26th Aug 21, 3:06pm 1629947162

We sure do, and we are still non the wise of what is the exit strategy. Given how expensive L4 lockdowns are, it is astonishing that NZ was so relaxed for its vaccination up to very recently. Probably due to low stock of vaccines.
All is reasonable to deduce though is that before a major portion of our society is vaccinated, the government is likely to continue using L4 lockdowns as a primary tool. This is because L4 LD is the only response that does not require capabilities to be shown by government. All other responses (isolation measures for ins and outs, scale and speed of testing, contract tracing etc) seems to be slow and unreliable in absence of lockdown.
Also the L4 LD cost is paid in future, when Jacinda is elsewhere. We are printing money to pay people for staying home. That bird will come to the roost sometimes in the future.

by Pat.T | 26th Aug 21, 2:55pm 1629946519

Otherwise the country will be a financial wreck.

by jeremyr | 26th Aug 21, 3:01pm 1629946908

That's exactly right. The excuse they gave last time was that our health system was not up to it. So, we had to have these lockdowns to flatten the curve while they planning and getting prepared.

Well, that was 18 months ago, and during that time they have done absolutely f*** all. I know people that are racing around in hospitals right now 'trying' to get something together so that they could support some incoming patients. That should have been done ages ago, and nothing has been done again.

Now we get the same lame old hard and early slogans, and lockdowns which are just excuses hiding the idiocy of these guys that just cannot get anything done whatsoever.

All of this f***ing around not allowing GPs to vaccinate and making up booking systems that don't work or are unusable is again just hiding the fact that they did not order vaccines or even think about it early enough or get anything organized. The longer they drag out the vaccine progress the better they will hide the incompetence of not actually having a vaccine to administer.

We are actually the slowest in the world, and we were told we were the first, the gold standard. We are sitting hear being preached to that this is the best in the world. No, it's the worst performance of any vaccination process anywhere.

by house hunter | 26th Aug 21, 3:01pm 1629946908

Even the slow vaccine rollout has an upside. We've been able to watch other rollouts, and see the various studies etc. Ultimately we have have greater confidence about the vaccine's safety that countries that were (by necessity) early adopters. The Pfizer vaccine only just got full FDA approval.

by Believer1980 | 26th Aug 21, 3:10pm 1629947439

:) like there was any other game if such "confidence" was not there. Come on man, do not make imaginary "upsides" for an obvious inadequacy. Under any reasonable scenario vaccines would have been deemed safe to administer.

by house hunter | 26th Aug 21, 3:57pm 1629950271

If a serious side effect of Pfizer was discovered by the early adopters then we would have switched to a different vaccine. Is that so hard to imagine?
Does this upside justify being slow to get our order in? Probably not. But it's always good to see the positive aspects of a situation you find yourself in.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:44am 1629981862

No because correlation does not prove causation. By and large the vaccinations will be far far safer than the disease and vulnerable people e.g. with allergies always have to check for ingredients (with medication, alcohol, vaccinations, beer, tacos, those weird things they call friuzz energy balls). The vaccinations were tested far far before the rollouts and the rollouts have by and large shown a lot of standard population correlation but then so has plotting 5G against the covid outbreak density. You could be severely obese with a heart clot, blocked veins and one step on deaths door all before vaccination and they will still record it against the case log. Hence different countries with different health profiles also have different case results. Just be glad we don't follow the American diet.

by house hunter | 27th Aug 21, 9:49am 1630014564

You seem to be stating the obvious, which is fine but doesn't invalidate what I said. Also, Pfizer was in clinical trials for 7 months before being approved for emergency use in the UK. Not sure if that fits your definition of "far far before rollouts" but it doesn't fit mine.
Btw I've had my first Pfizer jab, before the current outbreak even, and will get my second soon so not an anti-vaxxer :-). But I was happy to have the luxury of watching other countries use the vaccine for a good while before it was my turn.

by Contrarian | 26th Aug 21, 4:56pm 1629953767

Amen. Add to it more accountability on the Government here, we are fortunate to be here in New Zealand as is this writer.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/24/why-were-happy-hobbits-in…

by Antz | 26th Aug 21, 5:53pm 1629957207

Best line: "New Zealanders would be more excited about “learning to live” with Covid if it didn’t look so much like learning to die with it."

by DIYman | 26th Aug 21, 2:56pm 1629946604

Dont browse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozdu06E0WLE

by Casual Observer | 26th Aug 21, 3:08pm 1629947328

UK High School students to have weekly, two Rapid Lateral Flow covid tests on return to school. https://www.bbc.com/news/education-51643556
Grandkids over there have been doing that as home testing since they went back to school earlier this year. It takes 30mins to get a result. It has also being a requirement for family member working in daycare. The latter family member has had 2 staff colleagues contract covid, but measures in place resulted in it not infecting any others. UK found pre-schoolers went backwards in their development after the first lockdown in 2020, so govt decreed all preschools had to stay open when the 2nd lockdown happened. Has any thought been given to either of those - RLF tests, and effects of lockdowns on preschoolers who usually attend daycare, in NZ?

A friend who works at a NZ based export processing plant said that they have been temperature tested everytime they went to work since, the first lockdown. Are NZ companies being more proactively responsible than the govt?

by nktokyo | 26th Aug 21, 3:43pm 1629949405

It would be hard for them to be less proactive. Today they announced surveys for post vaccination symptoms. It's been months. Honestly it seems like they couldn't think ahead to the weekend, let alone make critical planning decisions.

by realterms | 26th Aug 21, 3:58pm 1629950329

Unfortunately the lateral flow tests are so inaccurate as to be near useless. So I wouldn't rush to that approach.

by Casual Observer | 27th Aug 21, 2:13pm 1630030405

I did wonder about that. So, nothing is better than something?

by dago | 26th Aug 21, 5:34pm 1629956040

Let's not forget it's a randomly (so they say) sampled text message that is completely optional and can be ignored. I doubt much will come of it and i'm sure they'll be completely happy with that.

by Casual Observer | 27th Aug 21, 2:16pm 1630030565

Not at the schools my grandkids go to - every kid has had to do it and take the results to school - it was a school requirement before it became a govt requirement. I accept it may be able to be gamed though.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:49am 1629982182

Post vaccination symptom reporting has been mandatory since day 1. Just call up any Pfizer employee at any level and tell them a range of things that any placebo or nocebo could give you. Such as a decreased libido, stuffy nose, and throat dryness. Then order some wine and counteract those effects. Protip it will annoy those employees a great deal because they have to report all cases known to them and match them against records.

by WellingtonInvestor | 27th Aug 21, 12:42am 1629981728

Temperature testing has been proven to be a waste of time. It only gives a false sense of security that something is being done.

by Casual Observer | 27th Aug 21, 2:23pm 1630031019

And yet a fever is one of the things considered to be a symptom of covid. So allowing people with a fever to remain at work where there can be 100's of others, it a better solution, in your eyes? At the place of work I referred to anyone with a fever isn't allowed in the door - they are sent home. It's called risk management in an essential industry.

by Jaduong | 26th Aug 21, 5:16pm 1629954991

https://www.institutmolinari.org/2021/08/19/44-times-more-deaths-2021-s…
The numbers speak for themselves I think.

by Zachary Smith | 26th Aug 21, 5:25pm 1629955518

Do we know the general status of people that have been confirmed positive with the Delta variant? It would be interesting to know figures for asymptomatic, mild, etc as well as vaccination status.
Probably a bit too early to reveal but wouldn't it be interesting?

by sunchap | 26th Aug 21, 6:47pm 1629960468

I think the PM said yesterday that about 11 were vaccinated. Israeli data and recent studies suggest that Pfizer vaccination will enhance Delta symptoms ie make disease more severe (ADE); https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v1.full.pdf. I believe the vaccine should thus be used only for the elderly and we should treat Covid with therapeutics, like we do with AIDS. The inventor of mRNA technologies, Dr Robert Malone holds this view, particularly as this vaccine is still experimental and may be dangerous. The CDC are requiring more testing on pregnant women although Labour want to force it on doctors and female port workers.

by donny11 | 26th Aug 21, 6:47pm 1629960446

What conclusions did this study draw? Its beyond my reading level

by sunchap | 26th Aug 21, 7:01pm 1629961319

The paper title is; "The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is poised to acquire complete
resistance to wild-type spike vaccines", so they are basically saying that Delta has become almost immune to the vaccines based on the original Covid strains. In another recent July 2021 Vietnamese study one vaccinated doctor infected 30 or more other vaccinated health workers two months after he was double "vaccinated" with our Pfizer vaccine. His nasal viral load was 250 times higher than those that got the Alpha, or original Covid strain, which is maybe why Delta so infectious. What worries me therefore, is that in two months time NZ will erupt with cases, like Israel did, ie this vaccination is useless.

by fat pat | 26th Aug 21, 9:20pm 1629969609

What conclusions did this study draw? Its beyond my reading level

It means that in terms of virus mutations we’re a cat’s whisker away from having a vaccine which doesn’t protect you, but makes the disease worse. What’s not discussed in the paper is the phenomena of “original antigenic sin”. Mistakes being made now in the current vaccination campaign may not be fixable with a new vaccine.

PS. Thanks for posting that paper sunchap - really interesting, albeit scary stuff.

by dcnbwz | 27th Aug 21, 5:55am 1630000550

Sunchap posts the same ivermection promoting antivax rubbish Pat. It's an echo chamber.

by fat pat | 27th Aug 21, 7:58am 1630007920

Do you realise that the World Health Organisation chief scientist could be facing the death penalty in India for talking smack about ivermectin.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/06/india-could-sentence-who-chief-sc…

by dcnbwz | 27th Aug 21, 8:46am 1630010804

Not reputable sorry Pat

by fat pat | 27th Aug 21, 9:28am 1630013306

What exactly is not reputable? Here's the web page of the Indian bar association. You can see they're pressing charges in their latest press release.

https://indianbarassociation.in/

by dcnbwz | 27th Aug 21, 9:12am 1630012369

And what's your point btw?

by fat pat | 27th Aug 21, 10:36am 1630017362

That the WHO and FDA for that matter are beholden to commercial and political interests. The process is known as regulatory capture. Those institutions won’t always make the best health and welfare decisions. Policymakers need to seek advice from unbiased scientists and clinicians who scrutinise the primary literature rather than blindly trusting what the WHO or FDA says.

by dcnbwz | 27th Aug 21, 10:38am 1630017496

So the death penalty is the answer? Ivermectin is sheep dip Pat. It's for treatment of worms. End of story.

Unbiased scientists? You mean those outliers who are touted on the conspiracy spectrum as shining examples of fact?

by sunchap | 27th Aug 21, 9:09am 1630012197

Thanks fatpat. I am starting to get worried about ADE showing it's head? (as Montagnier saying this).

by donny11 | 26th Aug 21, 6:49pm 1629960547

This is interesting. looks like mass vaccinating a healthy population with a non sterialising vaccine isn't the best of ideas. Hmmm.

by dcnbwz | 26th Aug 21, 7:30pm 1629963043

You lot are self affirming. There's a circular feedback loop going on here, decidedly antivax. Let's not mention ivermectin either.

by donny11 | 26th Aug 21, 7:40pm 1629963653

No no, ill get my vax. I sort of feel it is in my interests as an individual although I do have serious doubts as too whether it will be in our long term interests as a society. If that makes sense. Game theory etc. I certainly don't buy into mass delusions unlike your self who just allows their belief system to be evolved & mounded to suit the current ideological trends. Peace.

by Carlos67 | 26th Aug 21, 9:49pm 1629971352

The thought that the current generation of vaccines end up interfering with newer generations has crossed my mind.

by HouseMouse | 26th Aug 21, 10:46pm 1629974774

Bullshit. That study you quote DOES NOT state that vaccination makes delta symptoms worse.
I have reported you for spreading blatant mistruth.

by fat pat | 26th Aug 21, 9:04pm 1629968645

Why isn't the government doing something practical? Tell people what to do if they get sick. Tell people how to boost their immune systems. Take zinc and vitamin D supplements. Get proper sleep. If you get sick with covid you can reduce your chances of hospitalization surprisingly by gargling dilute povidone-iodine solution. It’s not pseudoscience, there are randomized clinical trials showing that works. Check out this link https://c19early.com/

Read about the protocols for early treatment here https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Allian…

You can buy vitamin D, zinc, povidone iodine, melatonin from the chemist. You can do something practical to protect yourself and your family.

by printer8 | 26th Aug 21, 9:35pm 1629970501

fat pat
And I bet you believe those emails from Nigeria about your inheritance of millions of dollars.
Quick Google of those involved in covid19criticalcare.com raises serious alarm bells regarding their credibility.
They are also the group that support Ivermectim - most strongly rejected by the FDA who were alarmed by their claims.
Take your misinformation elsewhere.

by realterms | 26th Aug 21, 9:35pm 1629970544

I don't know why he left out the livestock de-worming agents. NZ must be well stocked with those.

by fat pat | 26th Aug 21, 10:24pm 1629973494

you could apply the same silly argument (ie used for animals no good for humans) to penicillin

by fat pat | 26th Aug 21, 9:57pm 1629971821

That's a supremely retarded comment. Those clincians have over 1000 peer reviewed papers between them. You've been sucked into the propaganda machine which attacks reputable doctors and scientists. Think about it. What's the evidence for the aforementioned treatments - dozens of peer reviewed randomised clinical trials! What's the cost/benefit analysis? Well even if they did nothing for covid they wouldn’t hurt you, but it's quite likely given the positive clinical trial data, that the treatments work. So at an aggregate society level recommending those treatments would keep people out of hospital.

by dcnbwz | 27th Aug 21, 12:06pm 1630022792

Take your misinformation elsewhere Pat

by Lanthanide | 26th Aug 21, 9:45pm 1629971110

Melatonin is prescription only in NZ.

Are you even from NZ?

by sunchap | 26th Aug 21, 11:01pm 1629975662

Nobel prize winner and discoverer of the HIV virus, Luc Montagnier, has stated that our Pfizer vaccine is creating variants and recommends zinc, vitamin D and ivermectin instead of this barely tested jab; https://thenewamerican.com/french-nobel-prize-winner-warns-vaccines-fac….

by printer8 | 27th Aug 21, 12:39am 1629981574

https://www.newswise.com/factcheck/debunking-the-claim-that-vaccines-ca…
There you go its debunked as being false.
"According to the CDC, a growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others.3 Stopping the spread of COVID means slowing mutations of the virus too. "

by fat pat | 27th Aug 21, 3:17am 1629991040

by fat pat | 27th Aug 21, 3:16am 1629990991

Luc Montagnier, a Nobel laureate in virology is being "fact checked" here by some guy Craig Jones whose highest qualification is a bachelor of fine arts degree. What a joke.

by lostinawoods | 27th Aug 21, 3:42am 1629992534

Buy at Amazon and ship home.

by Lanthanide | 27th Aug 21, 10:29am 1630016980

As a prescription medicine it legally can't be imported into NZ without a prescription. It's liable for confiscation by customs - I bought some perfectly innocent herbal pills (mberry miracle fruit tablets, they block sour taste receptors on your tongue so lemons etc taste only sweet) that came in a blister pack from Australia and needed them at short notice. They didn't arrive for a week, and when they didn't turned up, it was clear that customs had opened the packet to inspect them.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 21, 12:59am 1629982749

Vaccine conspiracy Bingo again, so soon. This time it was a real short one. Surprised me with the twists but I thought the hesitancy drivel would have more of a showing. Relieved though that the faith will cure it square has been mostly untouched until I read articles about Destiny Church. That is a real worry for vaccination outreach in NZ. The large part who actively do more harm like the alt treatment nutters and nature cure fraudsters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zeQ458FPAo

by Dharper | 27th Aug 21, 4:11am 1629994264

Thanks, very good summary update

by Zachary Smith | 27th Aug 21, 5:38am 1629999530

When AIDS first appeared on the scene the initial treatments for that were highly lethal. High dose AZT was worse than the disease so the medical establishment can get things wrong. Scepticism and discussion is healthy.

by Big Jim | 27th Aug 21, 1:30pm 1630027859

What to watch for:
Covid illness rates among vaccinated people increase over time, approaching rates in unvaccinated people.

What it means:
1) Waning immunity, or
2) Immune escape variants

Is it happening?
Yes

Possible solutions:
1) Booster shots to infinity – a real-time experiment on the human population with no clinical trials to demonstrate safety, or
2) Stop the vaccination push until we can develop better vaccines that do not have this problem. Accept natural infection in the meantime.

——–

What to watch for:
Elevated incidence of vascular problems, neurological problems, and/or other symptoms among vaccine recipients.

What it means:
Vaccine biotoxicity, likely due to spike protein.

Is it happening?
Yes, although the risk/benefit tradeoffs vs. covid itself for various risk groups are still somewhat unclear.

Possible solutions:
Limit vaccination to high-risk groups, while continuing development of vaccines that don’t have this problem.

——

What to watch for:
Positive correlation between vaccine coverage and Covid-19 caseload, in comparisons between nations or regions.

What it means:
Vaccine-enhanced viral spread (likely due to suppression of symptoms in the absence of infection prevention, in effect creating more asymptomatic carriers)

Is it happening?
Unclear, but the fact that many of the world’s most vaccinated countries currently have the highest caseloads is reason for suspicion.

Possible solutions:
Stop the vaccine rollout to the rest of the world until we have vaccines that are not “leaky” in this way.

——-

What to watch for:
Worse Covid-19 disease outcomes in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. (Or possibly also worse outcomes when infected with other, similar viruses.)

What it means:
1) Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) via. viral infection of immune cells, or
2) Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) via. immune overactivation (cytokine storms etc.), or
3. Original antigenic sin (ingrained antibody production pathway for original virus precludes adaptation to new variants)

Is it happening?
No clear data yet; some evidence from molecular modeling that it is possible, and limited clinical indications (e.g. vaccinated patients with severe illness not responding to MATH+ treatment protocol). Past attempts to develop coronavirus vaccines suggest a high risk of ADE, and it may appear during waning immunity or upon emergence of new variants.

Possible solutions:
Stop vaccination campaign, focus on prophylaxis (e.g. widespread ivermectin use?).

—–

What to watch for:
Increased incidence of autoimmune disease among vaccinated people.

What it means:
Vaccine-induced autoimmunity (i.e. self-targeting antibodies)

Is it happening?
No evidence yet ; however autoimmune problems can take years to develop.

Possible solutions:
Stop vaccination and boosters.

——

What to watch for:
Accelerated emergence of Covid-19 variants of concern in regions with a high vaccination rate.

What it means:
Vaccine-driven viral evolution.

Is it happening:
Quite possibly, e.g. https://twitter.com/ConeyLinguist/status/1427654829439078406, although definitive proof will be impossible for this one.

Possible solutions:
Develop less leaky vaccines; avoid vaccinating during periods of high viral prevalence.

by Zachary Smith | 27th Aug 21, 5:45am 1629999908

Also it wouldn't surprise me if they started advocating the use of microchips to track everyone's movements.

by the Joneses | 27th Aug 21, 10:34am 1630017293

It would surprise me a lot, as the technology is not able to do that. Microchips are simply embedded RFID devices able to report their ID number if energised by a nearby scanner. They don't have batteries to be able to store information or communicate via GPS/bluetooth/RF. Mobile phone or bluetooth card tracking is much more viable, that is what governments are looking into it.