Alright, that's it. 2020 is done, finally.
It is New Year's eve, so time to think ahead. And forget about the past year as much as we can.
How do you think our economy (housing, agriculture, tourism, education, to name the key sectors in decreasing size) will fare in 2021? Both tourism and the education sector took a thrashing in 2020; will they rise next year?
And how do you think the big economies on the global stage will fare? There were plenty of huge stumbles in 2020 but will it be the monetary authorities or the fiscal authorities that take the lead in 2021? Or will they merge into one unified effort?
And how will the financial marketplaces perform? This past year has been plenty of unexpected winners, along with the expected losers. Inequality has widened. Will 2021 bring the payback?
Elections are now behind us. Now is the time for 'action' and 'delivery'. But it has been hard to find any over the past four years
It is time to test your prediction skills and bravely record them here, in the Comment stream below. (Sign up here.)
And of course there is the small matter of bragging rights on your 2020 predictions. How good were they? Here is a quick link to last year's set.
For those who like to keep score on the hard data front, here is an updated tally of the Government's progress. A number of those items will also score some forecasts in last year's predictions of many commenters.
This article is to encourage you to record your 2021 predictions.
They can be on any topic that has an impact on the New Zealand economy: anything, including property, interest rates, exchange rates, the RBNZ, insurance, rural issues, the dairy payout, our migration issues, our relationship with China, the big international economic influences, even the shifting international power balance, and the like. But please try to ground them in the economy. (For example fashion or celebrity comments are not relevant, but climate change issues certainly are.)
You will need to be logged in to comment and respect our commenting policies (and respond to others' differing views in a respectful and civil way).
Over to you.
127 Comments
Sino - US Cyberwar leading to the break up of the USA due to federal incompetence and mass dislocation.
Caveat: I just read the Zero Day Code by John Birmingham
The Great Boomer sell off of assets and continued burdening of debt onto younger generations. Retirement and Aged Care providers "unprecedented" growth and dividends.
- 99% of predictions will be wrong
- lemmings will always follow each other over a cliff
- the old guard will fail to see the mechanisations of the new order
- greed will be the driver of everything
- the wise will keep their own houses in order
- opportunities will abound for people with liquid assets
- people will complain about how good 2020 was compared to 2021
- there'll be nothing new under the sun
Posting my prediction from https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/108524/whales-pile-what-they-see-… for posterity
Bitcoin peaks around 350k in September before settling around 80k before the next halving cycle in 3.5 years.
My predictions:
*COVID will continue to feature strongly as new variants emerge a people realise the vaccines implementation is actually a bit hard. The US will start to recover ground against the virus though under Biden.
* Money printing will accelerate to epic proportions, now printing $2T barely makes the news. NZ governments utter refusal to do the same and print money to put in the pockets of our citizens will accelerate the appreciation trend against the USD until exporters start crying for relief by the middle/end of the year. Government will finally cave but botch it up and things will get worse locally.
* As travel opens back up the NZ government will try and get immigration going again claiming it is the only way to kick start the economy. They will screw it up because they lack competence and we will likely see COVID cases breaking out with some of the local population refusing vaccines.
*We will see more house price appreciation and young people leaving to Aus as under the last Labour government. At the slightest sign of a housing downturn, suddenly the RBNZ and gubbmint will act together to print money to keep the party going, if the RBNZ hasn't seen to it already with it's own money printing of $128b.
* Infrastructure will continue to be shown around the country to be insufficient, highlighted by Climate Change events being increasingly severe/common. Gubbmint will still refuse to redirect printed money to building infrastructure, betting even more on the housing market to "see us through"
* We may see cost of living riots here
* Government will fail to act, yet again, on Climate Change (yoy emissions increases), housing supply, child poverty, productivity, infrastructure, you know, all the things that they need to deliver on as they are basically incompetent (as were the last lot). The Greens will be blamed as scapegoats.
* China will roar out strongly as the US and Europe recoveries are mired in the wealth and new money being financialised by the rich into assets (instead of doing stuff like building infrastructure etc). They will all scratch their heads and wonder where they went wrong when it's obvious to all. Social unrest will ensue.
* South China Sea issue will start to boil over. Some SE Asian countries will cave to China, others will be more belligerent and side with the US.
*Collectively the world will continue to act in their own interests and Climate Change will get much worse.
I predict I won't make predictions.
But here's my best guess:
Domestic:
- the OCR won't go negative, it will remain where it is
- GDP growth will be moderate
- no big shifts in government policy, more tweaking and virtue signalling
- house prices rise circa 5-10%
- International flights open up to 'near normal' by November
International:
- no big events
- Biden administration is firm on China but seeks to mend some bridges
- Europe struggles big time
Based on my 2020 predictions I wouldn't dare. Self-assessment of my 2020 predictions. NZ property 0/10. NZ dollar 1/10. NZ share market 1/10. Global markets 1/10. Covid 2/10. NZ election 3/10. Bitcoin 0/10.
Perhaps I should become an economist. In fact with my 2020 predictions, a leading economist would be far more fitting. My only prediction for 2021 is fewer predictions from me.
BTW: always been nosey about Ashley C and Tony A personal investment history especially in relation to property but can find nothing. Anyone help a nosey poster?
nktokyo.. would guess the same. Just interested in knowing how well Ashley and Tony have done, whether they are fully diversified, if they purchased and sold at opportune times, the areas they own in, types of property, when they started investing, best and worst decisions etc. I just felt that maybe me (and others) might not have given them enough credit and the best way to get more idea would be to see their score cards. They both seem a little vain and arrogant so if either have got a remarkable financial record we just may see them respond.
I would put mine out there but that would be making the incorrect assumption that anyone actually gave a shit. But I do think many on this site would be fascinated to see a comprehensive personal investment history posted by both Ashley Church and Tony Alexander, not to mention what we could all learn from it as well.
Several levels of System interact.
Some feedback loops set in, some irreversible.
Overpopulation (manifest as consumption-per-head) continues to deplete finite resources.
The quality of remaining-available resources continues to decline (mostly in terms of lesser concentrations).
Debt-issuance, already beyond the ability of the planet to repay, increases.
Debt issuance continues to distort valuations, particularly of the only genres capable of being believed; real estate and shares. Other knock-on receptacles will be art, old cars....
The global North (First World) will continue to assert itself over others, using that debt - after all, it produces nothing much itself.
The global South will be increasingly resentful - and calling them ' terrorists' won't change that.
Empire(s) will continue to fail, but there isn't enough planet left for an equivalent to rise to prior levels.
Some will realise we are close to global collapse, due to resource depletion, sink-filling and entropy.
War (perhaps the inevitable Big One over ' what's left') is quite possible - and is inevitable within 10 years (which makes our semi-automatic gun-trashing look a little short-sighted).
Belief in money (via disbelief in the validity of debt) may collapse. Which will cause a general collapse. If it isn't this year, soon. That is a trigger of human-brain making, but hard to see it not happening given the inevitabale trends.
Beyond that, triage. Triage of infrastructure, triage of services.
And local, much more local.
And major reappraisals of relative 'values'.
And looking back on the stupidity which was our myopic concentration on 'growth' and our chosen false accounting (GDP) of it, we will wonder at our stupidity. All we were doing was extracting parts of a finite planet at exponentially-increasing rates, using a finite stock of stored solar energy to do so. All we did with that one-off chance, was to irrupt population-wise and consume as if there was no tomorrow, while failing to allocate for maintenance (to set aside resources to parry entropy).
Those guilty of not examining and reporting this dilemma? Politicians, academics and the media.
With my success of last year's 2 PDK predictions, I make them again for 2021.
Politics, saw us pick up on the PMs imposter syndrome and "not being that into it".
While pandemic remains her international options are capped, GBHs call out of GR is probably post the health event as the country is opened up to covid with the vaccine as only defense.
As JK referred the folk around the PM need a careful watch, especially on SOE and in the murk of PR/journalist environs & staging events. They have masterful technic. The same can not be said of the zombie (return from the dead like) cabinet they seem to have, and be, a dead hand on policy that sees people electors, us, flourish. Cabinet talent is a problem.
News, expect more protesting of emotive issues and more cabinent appeasement, less for esoteric issues - economic contraction, over regulation, balance of payments restricting activities.
- See - Clinton, especially. Hilary Clinton progressive Democrat playbook, for a peak at the future.
1) USD:NZD will hit 5-year low (<1.32)
2) Bitcoin will surpass USD50'000
3) US government will break up Facebook, or at least commence the process
4) NZ Govt will issue record number of Investor Plus Visas
5) Tesla stock will reach USD1'000 before crashing to below USD300
6) Donald Trump will launch a cable news network
7) annual inflation as measured by the US Fed will end around 1.5% for FY21
8) Scots will vote to separate from the UK and join the EU
1. Inflation will undershoot global predictions.
2. National Party will start to talk about managed immigration. (It may have some sense to it but will likely reveal racism in their ranks.)
3. Labour solution to housing will be to push more tax payer capital into residential property.
4. Covid breaches to occur as pressure to open border becomes too great and special visas grow in number
5. Stocks in airlines will ‘fly’ based on trimmed workforce and vaccine success
Printer8 will publish a bestseller. Runner up in the Hawkes Bay Joes bookstore awards to the classic 2 page fictional work," Honesty, Integrity and Life as a real estate agent. "
The four volume tome will be taken from some of his shorter posted comments . Titled "Sitting ,watching and waiting " or alternatively "Musings from the Bay" it will contain Printer8's reasoning for remaining out of the market since 2016. A special chapter to be devoted to Printer8 's mum, who saw her life savings put on term deposit , and the reasons for Printer8 doing so. The book will allow Printer8 more quality time with family , by simply referencing chapter or page ,paragraph or line.
Initially to be forwarded by Greg, the opening initially resembled more of a pair of ( or four or more) unmedicated schizophrenic parrots urging the real estate median higher. As such , Printer8 after discussion with publishers chose balance with Retired Poppy, JC and Independent Observer to provide the opening.
Wow Cowpat!
Amazing the only highlight for you for 2020-21 are my posts! You must be besotted and have hung onto my every word to be able to remember all that.
I hope you have a great 2021 but you seem a bit up tight. You need to chill out a bit though - I suggest you skip reading my posts if you don’t like them. Pretty simple really!
Cheers
I'm interested to see what Labour has planned to solve housing inequity next year.
I predict some form of back-end support system like, FHB low interest/subsidized deposits, Rent to Own, Rent for Life, more public housing, etc. All programs that are effectively rebates off the back end and are meant to be a counter to whatever the out of control housing pricing is increasing by.
Which of course will only exacerbate the problem as it is increasing demand without increasing supply relatively.
And gives the impression that 'house prices only go up', and 'that is what people expect,' but are really hiding the big problem that more and more taxpayer money is needed to support what will one day (soon) become unsupportable.
I also predict that the Govt. will use the cover of Climate Change and Covid 2 as the fall guy to introduce far more State involvement/control policies than what we would have put up with if it was seen as any local pollie induced crisis.
I actually think there could merit in doing the following:
- lifting maximum Homestart grant from 5k to 15k, and making each year of kiwisaver contribution worth 3k
- increasing price caps eg from 650k to 700k in Auckland
It's bloody hard apart from in the cheapest Auckland locations to build a 3 bedroom townhouse for less than 650k. 700k is doable.
Making these changes would give developers more certainty.
A 650k mortgage over 30 years at 2.5% is quite doable for a household earning 100k
Increasing Homestart entitlements is the next step after an OCR cut to keep the housing bubble alive and growing, there are other options but this ones the easiest.
We will definitely see this next year if house prices look even close to stalling the excuse is already there. It will be quickly factored in to prices and even more people will need grants to buy.
Merit for what, making the housing Ponzi worse?
This is not like a Savage Govt. which had the benefit of starting from a low point economically, housing was 3x median income, and they never got in the way of private developers or had restrictive zoning like we do today.
The only outcome WHEN Labour back door it like this a greater divide between those that get an artificial increase in equity and those that get state-funded artificial equity into a house.
How long do you think they can keep this up?
It does make a farce of talk about sustainability and wise use of resources.
-Bitcoin will go (more) stratospheric, and then crash c.80%.
-Gold will rise steadily.
-NZX will have another good year, based on high prices for primary products and gov’t spending on infrastructure and housing. Manufactured goods and export services struggle.
-NZ dollar will remain strong.
-US tech stocks will get hammered. Fed will panic and print even more, sharemarket will lap it up and recover.
-We’ll start seeing price volatility- a wild mix of inflation and deflation in different sectors. Food prices up, manufactured goods down.
-Local RE flat. A lot of nervous mortgage-holders and quiet mortgagee sales, but banks and gov’t have their back.
-Life continues to get harder for renters.
-With tourism and education cratering, borders reopen with relaxed visa rules. Gov’t surprised by record immigration into an unsteady economy. Overcrowding of limited rental accommodation becomes worse. Refusing to acknowledge any problem allows room for the emergence of anti-migration populist party, replacing NZ First, which takes seats at the next election.
-Australia takes steps to reduce the flood of young Kiwis heading into *their* weakening economy once borders reopen.
By the second half of the year the Greens will have fully woken up to how they have been sidelined and muted. Expect then, amplification of the shrilling and bleating as the self anointed VIPs clamour to not remain unnoticed and irrelevant. Those ambitions and that turmoil will precipitate a palace revolution.
Go on then let's make some guess to be wrong:
RBNZ still cuts rates despite booming housing market and all talk of extra measures to reign it in remain just talk
Housing reaches record highs in March and then again in November
The stock markets properly crash between late Jan and March but "no one" in NZ cares because housing credit fills the void
Bond yields go below this years lows
There will be continue to be very little correlation between rises and falls of the price of gold and Bitcoin.
The vaccines hit a number of stumbling blocks delaying uptake and any real progression to heard immunity but COVID case counts still disappear of the northern hemisphere summer (and the vaccines get the credit).
And now for some wishful thinking: Western nations finally notice the success of India and South American outpatient and prophylactic operations for COVID and start allowing them.
US did as well in 20/21-its just that the Roaring 20's were so powerful no one remembered the decade started with such misery for President Harding who didn't last out his term. Spanish Flu hardly gets a mention once the rise of the Middle Class gains speed. Auto's, Appliances, Radio, and "Talkies", not to mention air travel all took off that decade. Like Bill Clinton seventy years later Calvin Coolidge had nothing to do with US GNP taking off like a torpedo that decade. Critical difference between two countries that decade was "Black Friday" the 1929 Stock Market Collapse. In the States it caused the Greatest Generation to stay away from Stocks, whereas that same impact upon a generation of Investors didn't happen in New Zealand until 1987, and because of it Baby Boomers in NZ have used Single Family Homes instead of Stocks to prepare for retirement--all enabled by successive Governments who have failed to add any "sting" to that form of retirement investment, resulting as one commentator on this site said not so longer ago "Auckland is eating its young"- (ie 10x's Median Family Income to buy a Home is not sustainable.) Let's hope the Middle Class can survive the coming decade both in NZ and the US.
Here's a request not prediction. Let's double down on 2020 there is very little i would actually change. I know others have had a hard/very hard time of it and they have my sympathies/condolences. For us it was a good year financially, thankfully had no illnesses and we have done our bit to helping others.
Thats a joke I don't take anything for granted... do something different this year Albert, your posts are becoming bitter and twisted over time. Btw we did particularly well out of the nz sharemarket, just run of the mill with no fancy offshore buying or speculating in cryptocurrcies or precious metals... which
is open and available to anybody else to do as well so that is not privileged or greedy Albert.
If you didn’t make capital gain out of the nz sharemarket then there is no helping you mate. I’m not bitter at all I just can’t understand your logic that when millions of additional people have suffered this year around the world due to pandemic that you would ask for this to be doubled down? It wreaks of self entitlement.
The amalgamation of all NZ Polytechnics and ITOs will continue, supposedly with greater emphasis on local industry needs, but with continuing fallout from the historic dependency on international students. So Labour have nearly achieved an actual objective.
Will Labour impose this nation-wide model on Health Boards, Schools, and Universities?
Globally - sovereignty increasingly surrendered to the UN view, and China ???
I looked back to last year's link, and I had to have a little chuckle reading Printer 8's comment:
"If lonewolfnz is worthy of mention it goes to show you are right some of the time but never all the time. One of the last postings of his was that he was cock-a-hoop about a “sneaky buy” of Bitcoin at $US12300. Bitcoin has only dropped since then."
Price is currently over $US29100, so I think I am allowed a quiet chuckle here (just a quiet one, I don't want to jinx anything). And don't worry, once 31 March arrives, the IRD (combined with my accountants invoice) will wipe the smile off my face.
And for what is worth my prediction was $10k EOY, but happy to be dramatically wrong there.
Lonewolf
Well done! Actually you are entitled to a large out-loud laugh!
Actually I thought I read a later post where you said you were out of BTC and into some other cryptocurrency - but maybe in old age my memory is playing tricks.
Not understanding the rationale or drivers, I’m not into cryptocurrency but I recall wishing you well at one stage.
A basic rule of investment is go with your own considered opinion - that way, whatever happens you take responsibility, the good or bad. So enjoy the moment - you made the right call.
Yes no hard feelings. My last sneaky buy was at 22.4k, so there is another one for you to track. I've actually been shorting the hell out of ripple right now.
Mostly in BTC and ETH at the moment. But I'm now moving to buying blockchain exposed stocks and ETFs now (Square, Blok, Microstrat, Paypal, ARKW). Still full speed ahead, getting a little bit out of control right now. Fine for old dogs like me, not so much the kids buying with their credit cards in 6 months time. Maybe I'll move to gold bullion then.
I'm going to rate my old predictions, and will most my new ones later one (I think we can say Covid changed quite a few of these but anyways). Here they go:
House prices - 3/10 - WAY too low!
Gold - 10/10 - got it
Silver - 8/10 - pretty close
NZD - 1/10 - miles off, oops
No war by the USA - 9/10 (unless you count knocking off Iran generals)
Trump to Win - 3/10 - nope but close
Rents to surge out of control - 7/10 (yes, but not at the rate I thought)
Labour/Greens to have a close win - 8/10 (they won but not close)
New tax bracket at 40% at a high level - 9/10 (close enough)
Winston to retire and the end of NZ First - 10/10 (I'm calling it now)
Euthanasia Bill to pass with 80% of the vote - 8/10 (yes but more like 65% or so)
Cannabis failed to pass with 40% of the vote - 8/10 (yes but 48%)
ACT to get 2 MPs, close to a third - 4/10 (they grew, but much faster than I thought)
Rent to buy scheme to replace Kiwibuild - 9/10 (yes, this was kiwibuild 2.0 - although it now seems to have vanished)
Bitcoin:
- Will have more volatility - 8/10 - yes
- Yearly low in the high 4ks - 10/10 (technically 3.6k on Bitmex, but daily close low was 4.7k)
- High at 12k, no more than 16k - 3/10 (clearly wrong)
- End of the year nobody will care with price around 10k (2/10) - miles off
- Altcoins to decline vs BTC - BTC dominance of 77% - (7/10) - pretty close actually - 71%, from around 55% start of year
- Blow off top for equities - (3/10) - a few falls but QE is keeping the wheels spinning.
So that would give me 13 correct results, and 7 stinkers. Not too shabby.
1. Houses still a great investment in NZ.
2. Bitcoin up to $50,000.
3. People won't read up on what Bitcoin is, or listen to some informative podcasts, but keep mentioning the objections about what they think Bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency) is.
4. No bubble with the Cook Islands in 1st quarter.
5. There won't be a bubble with Australia for first 2 quarters.
6. NZ dollar will keep rising.
7. NZ Covid-19 vaccinations won't start till 3rd quarter.
8. Although vaccinations are widespread in most countries, it doesn't seem to help too much with their 10th wave starting in Autumn 2021.
9. OCR won't go negative.
10. Labour will manage to do almost nothing in 2021.
11. NZ will see both a huge labour shortage and increasing number depending on benefits.
1. Median house prices to increase by 10-13%.
2. Median house price for Wellington City (not region) to exceed $1.05m
3. Rent prices to increase by 3.5%
4. Bitcoin to increase to $60k USD before crashing down to $15k USD.
5. Travel bubble with Australia in late Q2.
6. OCR to go to 0 but not negative.
7. Labour will introduce a new deposit scheme for FHB’s - something along the lines of $20k for a new build under 1m in Wellington, Queenstown and Auckland and $750k elsewhere
8. NZD to USD will be over 0.7500
I'm interested as to why the Twitterati all seem to think an approx 75% correction in BTC is on the cards. While I understand that this is 'normal' by looking at the past, there is now a real 'shortage' of BTC. So how do you factor growing demand / lack of supply on market with a 75% correction?
The growing demand is based on the price always going up
Really? I own BTC but I don't expect the price to 'always go up.' Never have. And I am not alone. In fact, most BTC purists hold the line that the price could go to zero.
PayPal is currently buying 70% of 'new supply'. If the HODLers refuse to sell and institutions don't sell, to what extent does this affect the price from falling? I don't know, but I'm sure most of the armchair critics don't knw either.
Orr and Robertson to remain BFF penpals, they plan to publish more of their letters in 2021
Jacinda to get married soon, currently planning it with Gayford over summer - timing is the key
Bank economists will be officially labelled as less reliable than weather forcasters with 0 correct predictions in 2020
The Rockstar economy will be taken to new heights but there will be no logic to it
Boomers will continue to boom buying up any property they can get
More young people will log onto interest.co.nz to threaten leaving New Zealand
Ha well I was completely wrong on change of govt but right on house price increases, tourism taking a hit and social housing list ballooning.
Predictions for 2021... social housing list still growing exponentially. House prices increasing, next year education taking a hit. Also predicting Jacinda will face growing dissent amongst her favoured swing voters but the hand talking, head nodding and furrowed brow keeps them satisfied enough not to revolt. More hollow promises made by govt, still no delivery whatsoever and excuses made blaming national for that, inability of hers to accept any responsibility and her putting increasing emphasis on our global reputation as a way to deflect from growing social issues at home in NZ. A few token bank lending restrictions made to satisfy the left leaning but without any real impact on the market.
A bit of a blah non year all in all. Still no travel till middle of the year about May June prob not March.
Gold price up to $2700 or higher an ounce, in USD, by year end.
FTSE, NYSE and DAX etc, down 40-60% by year end.
World inflationary surge derails GDP growth as disposable income takes hit, as wages fail to keep up.
China continues to fall out with non-craven allies and Unions in general suffer (EU, CCP, Russia, USA) as populations rebel in earnest.
In NZ, economy stalls in March and remains at 2% growth rate for rest of year.
House prices continue to rise in Auckland and rest of country, by 10% annual rate, up to mid February but dropping away to 4-5% rise by mid May and for rest of year.
Sales in Auckland resume usual volume that pertained in 2017-19, that is around 21,500 - 23,000
Interest rate cuts stop (no more in 2021 as inflation rises too much)
Vaccines do not take positive effect until May, with only 20% max of most affected pop being vaccinated before then. Delays and difficulties mean that the vaccinated only make up 40% of affected pop by year end and it is May 22 before virus is fully under control in richer countries.
Trump fades away , like noise and will not be future nominee.
World GDP does not reach 2019 level til mid 2022.
Before making predictions, it may be helpful to reflect on what actually happened in the last 12 months…
A genetically engineered version of SARS-COV1 was released, likely by accident, from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. Although the virus was less dangerous than the flu for most people (IFR~0.02% for under 70s), it’s was far more contagious and killed a number of immunocompromised individuals, tying up a lot of intensive care resources in the process. A combination of wild doomsday predictions by certain academics and a sensationalist MSM prompted a massive overreaction by most western governments. It became clear to many that natural immunity and inexpensive off-patent drugs could adequately control the situation, however governments around the world downplayed or outright ignored everything but a vaccine endgame. Trust in governments and tech platforms was therefore eroded as draconian measures were implemented to restrict free speech, control the narrative, and justify the serious economic damage being done. The idiot Donald Trump won the election by a landslide, however due to massive mail in ballot fraud, and interference with electronic counting machines, specifically in swing states, the unpopular neoliberal democrat Kamala Harris became the de facto president of the USA. The MSM were largely complicit with the election fraud, and with violent Marxist and left wing fascist uprisings by the respective BLM and antiFa movements. This further eroded trust in MSM news outlets.
Now for NZ’s predictions.
1. Lose monetary policy and a quiet loss of confidence in the dollar will keep the housing market hot.
2. The so called K shaped recovery will manifest in NZ. Fiscal spending will remain high as temporary payments either get extended or become permanent. Government employees will do well, however pressure will mount on some people as parts of the real economy have been damaged. The lower socioeconomic classes will also come under pressure as inflation may pick up later in the year. We’re at the very beginning of a stagflationary decade.
3. Trust in governments, central banks, and tech platforms will continue to erode as more and more micromanagement of the economy, and peoples lives will be undertaken.
4. NZ will thankfully be back open for business with no quarantine hotels by the summer of 2021
It's just a bit of fun to make predictions. History repeats. Incidentally the extent of the holocaust wasn't fully reported. Several million Germans died on the banks of the Rhine river at the hands of the British, Americans, and Russians after WW2. It's a largely unreported genocide documented in James Bacque's book "Other Losses".
"1984" and "Manufacturing Consent" should be required reading I reckon, but maybe you'd end up with a nation of cynics. Most people don't think for themselves, and if they did they'd probably choose blissful ignorance over facing the uncomfortable reality that their world view wasn't correct. Whether it's Trump, this virus, climate change, thiomersal causing autism, or WW2 etc. the truth probably isn't what is generally accepted.
Significant unemployment (triggered by tourism collapse and other factors obviously) resulting in mortgage and rental duress. Less people spending, resulting in local businesses shutting. Houses sales plumment, with it the exorbitant, nose bleed prices. Many young NZers and their families gap it to Australia, where there are much greener pastures. This in turn, removes the "cream of the crop" tenants, FHBs and propective buyers from NZs property market.
I wouldn't be surprised if Aus tightens the thumb screws on new arrivals from NZ and is probably already onto this, planning how they'll manage the influx. When I see a total dump shit box sold in Nov for 465k on a busy main road, tons of problems, cross lease, in a flood zone, given a lick of paint then put back on the market for beo 685k I really have to ask myself... who is actually buying these houses and why?
Disagree Theoracle. The mining sector and construction sector is absolutely booming- I trying to find Recruitment businesses that can satisfy the needs of the mine site in WA. Its quite frankly unbelievable the amount of workers required. Saw this news article also: https://www.google.com/amp/s/7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/australia…
Aust government incentivising Kiwis- I'm telling all of my professional friends- get over here!
To make ends meet without struggling to pay for simple stuff like groceries or fuel for the car. Also be able to avoid a house and actually get mortgage- the abilty to save for a mortgage. Not paying rent of $750 per week for a family, which is way more than a mortgage in Perth per week...
People will go out of their way to act even more stupid than in 2020.
A plot will start to replace the leader of the CCP. Xi will become even more paranoid.
By November we might just discover what is broken in the global financial system that the Fed is propping up.
2021 here we come!
- Brightline extended to 10 years for existing houses but maintained at 5 years for new builds
- Govt consults on and signals a move to restrict investor mortgage interest rate tax write offs to new builds only and for a minimum of 5 years
- Auckland housing market slows down due to LVR and lack of inward migration. Regions continue to boom especially Chch which at lower prices and better yields starts to attract investors priced out of the Auckland/Wellington/BOP
- unemployment increases to 8% driven by tourism business folding
- NZX continues to hit record highs
- Tesla goes to $1k
- Judith replaced as Nat leader by Luxon but National polling doesn’t move
- vaccine not as protective as predicted. Lockdowns around the world and stimulus keeps on pumping
- Govt regulates property managers. Powers of tenancy tribunal increased and renters who complain or take a case to the tribunal are protected by anonymity
- ABs continue to stumble
Love the link to last years. I did alright again. I thought I deserve a bonus point for No. 4 and No. 7.
This years, same same but different.
1. Rich will get Richer. Jacinda will #Sadfrownyface
2. Inequality will grow. Jacinda will #Sadfrownyface
3. Child Poverty will Increase. Jacinda will #Sullennoddingface
4. Politicians will remain hopelessly out of their depth. Jacinda will #notcommentonhermps
5. Costs will continue to increase, wages won't. Jacinda will #Sullennoddingface
6. Homelessness and House Prices will continue their upwards trajectory. Jacinda will #ignoreandhopeitgoesaway
7. National will get a new leader. But they will likely be worse. Jacinda will #toothycynicalsmileyface
8. We will open up the borders to Covid "Refugees". Jacinda will #toothycynicalsmileyface
9. Kiwis will be shocked about something, but be completely apathetic in their actions. Jacinda will #ignoreandhopeitgoesaway
10. I will still come to this site to read the excellent articles and sometimes excellent comments. Jacinda will #fakehugandsmile
What I got wrong last year:
- Auckland HPI down 7% from peak (2017) at the end of the year
- No OCR decreases or increases (I believe in you, Orr...)
What I got right(ish):
- COL wins elections, perhaps without Winston this time
- National finally gets rid of Bridges, doesn't stop licking China's bottom though
- Moderate increase in rents in Auckland (2-3%) for the year
- Residential sales volume in Auckland goes up 10-20%
- Nationwide (ex. Auckland) house prices still up YoY
- I will get called a moron, fool, idiot, uneducated etc. for stating my opinion in the comments section.
Debatable:
- Some unpredictable event finally triggers the global downturn
So not a bad track record after all.
As for 2021:
- Labour will announce some sort of tool to curb house price growth (my bet is on some form of CGT). Wouldn't be their first broken election promise...
- Fixed (1 year) mortgage interest rates will stay below 3%.
- BTC will go below 20k USD
- No one in this comment section will correctly predict house prices
- Trump won't go to jail (sadly)
- National will do some soul searching and transform itself significantly
- Ardern will lose a big chunk of her popularity and Labour will pave the way for Grant Robertson to be their next PM
My last year's crop all bore fruit:
Here are my 2020 predictions:
- Vote Purchase Schemes up the wazoo. The 2019 Year of Non-delivery is gonna require massive corrective measures, paid for by the person visible in yer mirror. The PGF is an exemplar: pork for the Chosen few, cronyism thinly disguised as Helping Them Poor Victims, and PR opportunities a-plenty.
- Achieved, in spades
- Much more borrowing. Now that the Greens have thrown the Fiscal Responsibility rules under the proverbial Unicorn-Fart-Powered-Public-Transport-Conveyance, the sky (and the rating agencies' -er - Ratings) is the limit for all manner of Cool Social Experiments.
- Accelerated by Covid, but was heading thataway in any case.
- No new taxes, but massive increases in existing Fees, Charges, Levies and the like. A current example out for consultation: the Waste Minimisation proposals which will not actually innovate (like waste-to-energy, studiously excluded because Shut Up) but just clip the ticket on existing schemes plus fund a few new boondoggles (see #1) above).
- Partly achieved, but there's much, much more to come. Ask a farmer....
- A few new Victim Assistance proposals, to allow the PM the Feelz and Long Face PR opportunities that an election year demands. It's All Aboot the Children. Never mind that other Gubmint activities are in the Victim Creation business - that's a feature, not a bug. Mo' Victims = Mo' Pork Required to soothe their fevered brows and Mo' Gubmint drones to push the munny around, with employment, ticket-clipping and related side benefits.
- Overachieved here - every squeaky wheel got a shot of the Good Oil, except of course for the homeless, Child Poverdy, Unaffordable Housing, and a few more conveniently forgotten slogans.
- Might even be enough to buy another term......
- Well, That got done, eh?
OK, fairly much a clean sweep for this commenter in '20. Now for '21....
- The winding down of subsidies, hand-outs, and other Gubmint largesse will coincide with a difficult winter for many businesses. Hospo, tourism, international education, aviation and their supply chains are especially vulnerable. There must be quite a few zombie companies out there, shambling along until they don't. Attempts will be made to save those in the more marginal electorates, but realistically, with a mandate like the current lot possess, who actually cares? So as a direct result, homelessness, food banks, fevered-brow-soothers and Helping Professions are gonna have a killer season ahead.
- Interest rates cannot fall much more without crunching bank margins and turning off the few term investors left out there, and cannot rise much without causing grief, woe, negative equity and other effects in the wider economy. Perhaps not much change therefore, but this is Black Swan territory....
- Inflation may well surprise. The relentless rise of Gubmint and TLA fees, levies, charges, contributions, rates, imposts - but No New Taxes, mais naturellement - will start to feed into costs everywhere. And then, depending on the exchange rate movements, freight/logistics/supply chain effects, and the machinations of much larger countries jostling for their place in the sun, much cost inflation may be imported. Against a background of somber local economic issues, this will be rather unwelcome....hello, stagflation.....
- The economic performance of Gubmints and TLA's - or their all-but-inevitable fusterclucks that '21 will bring - will have many questioning structures, staffs, MO's and cost/benefits. Yet little will result, except for a growing undercurrent of dissatisfaction with them all, and a growing disengagement of their publics from the Mandarins' Machinations. A certain John Galt may rear his head.....
Okay here are mine. I'll do twenty, same as last time, and I try and beat my last score of 13/20.
1) NZ House Prices to increase by 12% or so year on year
2) There will be a 10 year bright line test, everything else tax related just tinkering. The new 39% rate will struggle to bring in new money as investors turn in droves to Trusts.
3) All key metrics for the government (child poverty, emissions, house prices, immigration etc) all to fail - but there will be some tinkering with the stats, or else they'll just stop reporting althogether
4) Kiwibuild 2.0 is gone forever and never re-emerges
5) Fixed mortgage rates to bottom some time around the end of the year - around 1.9%
6) Biden to step down and replaced by Harris. Trump to officially lose, but spend most of the year trying to challenge it
7) Clean energy and tech stocks to continue to run. Value stocks stay in the doldrums
8) No new leader for National. They'll gradually recover in the polls to high 30s and the Covid effect wears off (and people realise that the only people better off are the rich).
9) Aussie bubble by mid year. Even by the end of the year travel will be limited, but mostly back to normal
10) Covid mutations will cause issues and difficulties with vaccines, reducing the effectiveness and requiring regional lock-downs or travel blocks world-wide.
11) Gold to go up 15% or so. Silver to have a better year as industries come back into life
12) NZD to keep rising, then start to reverse towards the end of the year, but ending slightly stronger than now (shall we say $1.35 ish)
13) Tesla Stock to run for quite a bit yet, with a blow-off top towards the middle the year. The hamster can only run in the wheel for so long before it gets tired.
14) Record immigration for NZ (perhaps not in terms of actual arrivals, but applications) - this will be towards the end of the year as borders re-open.
15) Bitcoin will defy expectations and end its run earlier than thought - say around the high 30ks or early 40s. It will then have a double bubble, with a steep fall, bleed out, with its run super high in 2022. Printer8 will be checking Coinbase daily in anticipation of the price falling below $12,300.
16) Bitcoin dominance to go up a bit more - to say 80%, then start to fall down as altcoins recover. End of year back to 55-60%
17) Bitcoin ETF (Van-Ek) is finally approved. On that day, Bitcoin will increase by 20% plus
18) China to go full crypto - with the first major rollout of a CBDC, but flanked by a host of blockchain initiatives. There may be some kind of crisis as China starts to take control of miners, creating a risk of a 51% attack on bitcoin
19) USA to go full blown regulatory crackdown on crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum will be okay, but many major projects like Chainlink will be slammed. XRP will continue to die - ending the year below 10c.
20) DEX projects will explode. Uniswap, Sushiswap, 1 Inch and the like, plus new projects like Opium. Expect very very large increases in volume and funds under management via Defi. They will be the target of regulatory crackdown towards the end of the year, but people will learn you can't stop a smart contract.
I was also going to say that in NZ, the rich will get richer, and the poor (especially working poor) will get poorer - but that would be too easy!
By the 30th April 2021 the NZ median house price will have increased by another 9% however many small cities and provincial towns ie Nelson, Manawatu, Wairarapa, Whangarei, Napier, Hawkes Bay, Taupo etc may see increases of 12.5% to 15% in the first 4 months of 2021.
One year fixed mortgage interest rates will drop to 1.99% by July 2021.
Government will increase the value limits on homes that Kiwi Saver buyers can purchase by at least $50,000 to $75,000.
Banks will extend mortgage holidays for another 12 months once these come up for review.
Government will extend investor Brightline to 10 years and the IRD will strictly enforce it.
There will be no Trans Tasman travel bubble in the first 6 months of 2021. Oz may actually end up a Covid basket case just like the UK and USA.
Our borders will remain as closed as they currently are now, right through 2021, with the same limited quarantine capacity that we have now.
1. At the end of 2021, looking back 2020 wasn't that bad after all. The shit has still to hit the fan.
2. Global warming gets worse and planets resources continue to be plundered and wasted.
3. Labour begins a slide in the polls when the masses finally click they are useless.
4. Covid-19 continues to mutate and they call it Covid-21 if the vaccine doesn't work on it.
1. First home buyers grant increases along similar amount as Australia
2. Rents in high end suburbs decrease due to no immigration and tenants buying own properties.
3. Auckland CBD apartment sales market decreases 20% (rents have already decreased significantly)
4. House prices stabilise (unless Orr steps in to save the market again)
5. Jacinda will announce her second pregnancy
One prediction unfortunately I don’t think we are going to see in 2021.
There are a number of emerging features of our economy and society that are inconsistent with long held New Zealand values.
Clearly housing affordability is well articulated on this site with some anger. Underlying this is that homeownership has been a historical cultural norm and expectation.
This issue is justifiably well articulated as it is the concern of the largely well educated middle class posting here.
However, there are also other increasingly affected groups including low paid workers, homelessness, and poverty. A decent wage, a home and a reasonable standard of living are all long held cultural norms - expectations held for a least a century. (Unfortunately those in these categories are not commonly represented in posts on this site.)
I don’t get a “feel good” when we see on the news that 3million school lunches were provided last year - our society norm should be that there should be no need to provide these in the first place. Something has gone wrong with our economy and society - free milk to school children was abolished (I think) in the 1970s as it was perceived that the income, diets and child health of even the lower socioeconomic class were such that it was no longer necessary.
There is need to address all of these issues - including housing affordability; however sadly I do not see the government currently articulating as to how it proposes doing so.
The Labour Party campaigned on the slogan “Let’s continue moving” - but moving where?Jacinda has stated she sees New Zealanders happy to see some continuing house price increase; that is not addressing housing affordability. (Its flagship policy of KiwiBuild undermined its 1997 slogan “Let’s do this”.)
Early in Covid Grant Robertson referred to a much needed economic reset. Sadly this was not reflected in its election policies, nor has it been since; clearly same old, same old “Let’s continue moving”. Nothing about changing direction to address what have become the real and serious issues fast becoming entrenched in our society as new norms.
One sign of a good leader is that (unlike Trump) there is a need for a leader to step up and show a presence and strong leadership in a crisis. Jacinda did this exceptionally well in both the mosque shooting and the outset of Covid.
However there is also a need for leadership to clearly articulate a direction and this is not currently happening. “Let’s keep moving” without any identifiable goals is akin to the poor leadership in WW1 - “Keep moving forwards, men”.
The failures indicate that there is urgent need for an economic reset and change of direction.
Although Jacinda and Labour have been given the strongest possible mandate ever under MMP, we are not seeing this. No longer do we have NZF or the Greens acting as a handbrake.
I see resets such as Savage addressing social welfare and standards of living, and Rogernomics addressing competition and a competitive market as being two major economic resets. We need something similar, and given the election cycle, 2021 is the year and this should have already been articulated.
Although Rogernomics was much needed at the time, and have brought advantages to our economy, the four pressing issues I raise are a consequence of It.
There is urgent need for Jacinda to now show the necessary strong leadership and the Government to step up. Unfortunately I see Jacinda as being a populist; for example, I don’t care if she believes that the electorate has indicate some opposition to a CGT - it is immoral that the wealthy and middle class have tax free income from CG while the blue collar worker having to work a second job to buy the basics to support his/her family is taxed at their highest marginal tax rate.
To me, a true leader needs to make the unpopular calls to gain respect - and I will vote on respect rather than for someone who makes the easy popular decisions.
So, unfortunately my one prediction for 2021 is that I don’t see Jacinda and Labour stepping up and looking to addressing the key issues with an economic reset.
I hope I am wrong yet again.
You may be surprised, they must realise that to win the next election they will need to achieve something from their mandate.
I get the feeling there will be some major environmental policy (although it will probably fall short of taxing polluters which is really what is needed). And a lot of building: hospitals, schools, roads, public transport, state houses, etc. they can forget about the old 30% debt ceiling now and just spend up large.
Not often I agree with you P8 but that is a bloody good synopsis of the current government and the sad state of affairs this country finds itself in. As long as housing is so unaffordable the negative social issues you allude to will only progress. Unfortunately I have to agree with your conclusion that Jacinda will not be using her political capital to make the necessary hard decisions. She (like JK was) is too worried about losing her popularity and will
continue to tinker at the edges while Rome burns.
A few cheeky predictions I don't think anyone has mentioned yet:
1) Strikes will become a more noticeable thing again in safe/government jobs as people realise wages aren't keeping up.
2) NZ will be shocked by some form of lashing out against the system that would normally only happen overseas.
3) More than one MP will resign amid scandal.
4) NZ First will fold up its tent.
5) We won't conquer covid, but by year end most of the world will just live (or die) with it, without quarantines or lockdowns.
6) PDK will be 1 year closer to being sort of right, but no running out of critical resources this year. Petrol will still be relatively cheap.
I'm thinking the world will continue into a more chaotic phase as we move further from the Breton woods systems stability, like a spinning top as things slow they wobble a lot.
The the forces of deflation will keep raising their heads, as a powerful vortex continues that is now in an inescapable phase.
Even though Yellen earned over 7 million in speaking fees in the last two years, it won't be enough to change the course of history, the writing is on the wall. The stamp collector turned treasury secretary won't have what it takes, so it's down to ,'where we can start a decent war to bury the bodies, literally and figuratively.
The Doctor is in
https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/30/the-doctor-is-in/
The best and brightest kiwis leave for Australia in droves.
Jacinda continues to demonstrate that her only area of competence is self-fellation for the global media.
Labour try to plaster over their housing catastrophie with handouts that only make the problem worse.
Inflation rears its head and the corrupt reserve bank does nothing about it.
The housing mania eventually ends leaving New Zealand up shit creek without a paddle.
The best and brightest are capable of understanding that Australia is in all sorts of converging trouble(s).
Only the myopically focused or the economics-trained would see going there as a good permanent move. Whether there is a remaining window to 'earn and return' is a more interesting question; my appraisal is they'd better be quick!
I wouldn't expect anyone to take note of any predictions I make. As the great Yogi Berra said, predictions are difficult, especially of the future.
I would certainly not have predicted a year ago that my investment portfolio-shares and rental property-would have done so well even without the financial and monetary reprecussions of a pandemic. I was cautious then and am even more so now. A significant market fall would not surprise me and i have the cash to take advantage should that happen.
The UK version of COVID will get out into the community before the 16th of January and be very difficult to suppress. And...
1. There'll be long lockdowns again for Auckland and perhaps elsewhere
2. Arden's foolish delay on insisting on pre-flight testing of returnees from the UK and USA will bacfire on her and her popularity will plummet.
My predictions are that the Bottom will crack.
The Middle will still be diddled.
The Top will be supported any which way we can.(Jacinda, Robertson and Orr, are the Royal Wee.....not me).
NZ dollar will go through the Roof, surpassing even Donald's expectations of fraud-u-lent behaviour in Dollar Cost Averaging against the entire planet.
Donald may duck out, but will still quack on..."I'm an Ahole in one...keep borrowing, Golf is my True Game of Thrones" Nah, nana, nana....I can live for ever on a Presidential Pension and Pardon....I have been playing around, while America ...is lead up the Garden Path....Dummies." (And only Billions , Nay Trillions..in his Debt and many died, due to his ....Inadequacy....yet again?????????)). Oh and my wife can divorce me, Half of my debt will be hers.....and there is always another waiting in the Wings, Now I am Truly gone West....out of the West Wing.....always another Twit to take her place......Ain't being "Famous"....a doozy.
Twitter may have otherTwits..Twits like reading rubbish...it "Pays" for twitter.
OK I'm a bit late out of the starting blocks (12th Jan) but so far things are ticking along nicely.
Those of you who have been reading Interest for a few years know I have been a bull for years but I get the feeling that 2021 will be the year when the proverbial hits the fan. I think a major correction is coming this year led by steep losses in the US (then all other) stock markets which will flow on to other overvalued assets, starting with bitcoin and onto RE.
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