By Jenée Tibshraeny, Gareth Vaughan & David Hargreaves
Americans have voted on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden should take the presidency and lead them through the Covid-19 crisis.
The interest.co.nz team is keeping tabs on the results as they come in, updating this blog.
More than 101 million votes were cast before polls opened on election day, putting the election on track to garnering the highest turnout in more than a century.
States to watch include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Every state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on their population, with a total of 538 votes assigned. So, whichever candidate has a majority of 270 votes wins the presidency.
Polls suggested Biden was the favourite.
Saturday, 7:50am
Biden now leads in Nevada (+20,000), Georgia (+1500) and Pennsylvania (+13,000), and if those leads hold, it will be enough to claim the win. Biden's lead in Arizona holds (+43,000) despite a small comeback for Trump. Trump is left claiming vote counting should stop where he trails, and should continue where he leads, a tone-deaf position.
Biden now leads the popular vote by almost +4 mln (and double the Clinton lead four years ago).
Friday, 3:48pm
It's really tight in Georgia...
Georgia update 9:45 PM EST
— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 5, 2020
President Trump 49.77%
Former VP Biden 49.00%
37,322 votes separate the candidates with a little more than 100,000 votes left to be counted. Fulton says it has 29,000 left to county and will do so by 3AM
2:35pm
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, in a speech delivered at a BusinessNZ event at lunchtime, made these comments about the US election:
Yesterday, like many of you, I watched the results of the US election roll in, and I couldn’t help but reflect on our own elections in recent years.
No matter where you sit on the political spectrum, I’d like to think we can agree that a strong democracy requires a few pre conditions.
Citizens that believe in their system, and participate in it. Political parties that believe and support the system too. And, perhaps this last point is a little more debateable, but I’ve increasingly come to believe that we have to find ways that strong views can be held, and expressed, but without the accompanying partisanship that stops us from working to build consensus where it really matters.
We are living in an increasingly divided world. There are many people out there who could no doubt provide a range of evidence based theories as to why that is the case. From where I sit it feels as though we have a borderless world for things like trade and the exchange of people and skills, and yet, rather than this leading to people being exposed to new and different ideas and ways of thinking, the advent of technology and the creation of online platforms has led us instead to find and build our tribes to entrench our existing views. Places where we can lock in our opinions, where we can further reinforce them, rather than allow ourselves to be questioned and have our perspectives tested.
The emergence of a global pandemic over the course of the past year has undoubtedly exacerbated these issues. There is no question that there are certain facts about a pandemic that are just that – facts.
Where the debate exists is the space between those facts, and the strategy a country and its leaders choose to deploy in the face of them.
12:15pm
Joining Fox News, the Associated Press has called Michigan for Biden, taking him within six votes of the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.
BREAKING: Joe Biden wins Michigan. #APracecall at 6:00 p.m. EST. #Election2020 https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
Meanwhile, Trump is not showing signs of going quietly, should he lose in the Electoral College.
Our lawyers have asked for “meaningful access”, but what good does that do? The damage has already been done to the integrity of our system, and to the Presidential Election itself. This is what should be discussed!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
The Washington Post reports the United States has recorded more than 100,000 new coronavirus infections in a single day for the first time.
The President’s Twitter feed currently has more warnings than a pack of cigarettes. pic.twitter.com/z0j88OM7zV
— Ryan Lizza (@RyanLizza) November 5, 2020
Midday
Biden's transition website is live. It's called buildbackbetter.com.
The American people will determine who will serve as the next President of the United States. Votes are still being counted in several states around the country. The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession, climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden‑Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One.
10:55am
A number of media outlets - though not yet AP - have called Michigan for Biden.
With the 16 votes from there this would currently give Biden 253 electoral college votes to 214 for Trump. Remember, 270 is the magic number to win.
10:30am
Joe Biden has been speaking.
He says it is “clear” he will get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
"I‘m not here to declare that we won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we will be the winner."
Meanwhile the Trump campaign has falsely claimed victory in Pennysylvania despite there being over a million votes still to count.
Including Wisconsin as a win for Biden, the current state of play is Biden 237 electoral votes to 214 for Trump.
The presidency, itself, is not a partisan institution. It's the one office in the nation that represents everyone and it demands a duty of care for all Americans, and that is precisely what I will do.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 4, 2020
8:25am
So, where are we?
As it stands Biden appears to have a path to exactly 270 electoral college votes, which is the number needed for a win.
Officially as of now Biden has 227 votes and Trump 213.
The AP has declared Biden the winner in Wisconsin, which carries 10 votes.
He's ahead (narrowly) in Michigan (16 votes), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). Of these, Nevada looks vulnerable, with the lead only about 8000 with still 14% of the vote to be counted.
Meanwhile all sorts of noise is coming out of the Trump camp, with his re-election campaign saying it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the Michigan.
This is not going to be over quickly.
Friday, 7:15am
In his morning note BNZ senior markets strategist Jason Wong says financial markets have taken the close US election results and associated uncertainty in their stride, with US equities surging ahead and currency markets unperturbed. Wong says the Treasury market has cheered the lack of a blue wave with associated spend and borrow implications, seeing the 10-year rate down 12 basis points for the day to 0.78%.
"The full US election results are still unknown and it might take a few more days to tally the results, or longer if recounts are involved to get a final outcome. Biden leads Trump 238-213 in the bid to get 270 electoral college votes, with five battleground states – MI, PA, WI, GA and NC – still up for grabs, although Biden now leads the count in some of those and the bias of postal votes also favours him. Biden is odds-on about 80% to take the prize, according to betting sites, with a much easier path to victory than Trump from here. The Senate race is currently tied 47-47, with a couple of toss-ups and a special run-off in Georgia on 5 January, so that race remains too close to call," Wong says.
"Despite the lack of a result and Trump’s threat to roll in the lawyers to dispute the outcome, markets are seeing the result in a positive light. As we noted yesterday, gridlock isn’t necessarily a bad thing and from an economic perspective is better for the medium-term outlook. Any forthcoming stimulus is likely to be more targeted in nature, and a much-reduced quantum means less borrowing and less need for monetary financing of that debt – positive for US Treasuries and less negative for the USD. On the topic of fiscal stimulus, the Senate’s McConnell said 'we need to do a stimulus bill before the end of the year,' a positive sign as the Senate majority leader was a key proponent of stalling the process before the election."
"For the equity market, while a near-term fiscal sugar rush no longer seems imminent, there is also less chance of a roll back of Trump’s tax cuts and less regulatory risk overhanging the market. The S&P500 is currently up some 3½%, led by Health Care, Communication Services, IT and and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Big Tech stocks have outperformed and the Nasdaq index is up closer to 4½%," says Wong.
"US Treasuries have been on a wild ride, up to a fresh high of 0.94% as the first election results started rolling in and the market fearing a 'blue wave,' but as it became clearer that the race was much closer for the Presidency and the Senate, yields began to tumble and they fell further overnight, currently down 12bps for the day to 0.78%. The much flatter yield curve has seen Financial stocks significantly underperform, barely higher against the strong rally elsewhere."
"In currency markets, relative to this time yesterday, the USD is generally weaker, but movements have been small, excluding the Scandis, all within 0.3%. The NZD is flat at 0.6700 after traversing a wide 0.6614-0.6744 range during the early counting of results. If we take the NZ market close as a reference point, there is more noticeable evident weakness in the USD. The NZD is generally weaker on the crosses. The AUD pushed up through 0.72 during early counting, fell to 0.7050 and has recovered to nearly 0.72 again. NZD/AUD has pushed down to 0.9315, with plenty more downside left in the tank to reverse its recent strong and unjustified rally," Wong says.
Thursday, 6:30am
Election Day is turning into election week, as ABC News puts it, with vote counting continuing across the US, as preliminary results show tight races in several key battleground states. Candidates need 270 Electoral College votes to secure the presidency. ABC News projects Trump currently has 213, and Biden 225.
Fox News reports the race now appears to hinge on Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile Al Jazeera notes both Trump and Biden apparently expect to win. They have Biden at 238 Electoral College votes and Trump on 213.
The Hill reports that bipartisan lawmakers have condemned Trump for declaring victory prematurely.
9:04pm
That's us for today. We will be back with coverage in the morning. Goodnight!
9:02pm
The swing states are comfortably in favour of Trump at the moment, as per this New York Times infographic.
Biden remains ahead according to the presidential results, but Trump is hot on his heels. The New York Times has Biden at 225 and Trump at 213 votes. 270 votes are needed to win.
8:40pm
Trump's speech is difficult to make sense of. He falsely claimed he won a number of states and said: "We'll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop." Presumably he meant he wanted vote counting to stop.
8:30pm
Trump is claiming “success”, telling those gathered at the White House the results thus far are “beautiful”.
"We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election," he said.
8:22pm
Trump is about to speak:
7:09pm
A dig at Winston Peters by National's foreign affairs spokesperson, Simon Bridges:
Ambassador Peters should make a nice fit with the next President.
— Simon Bridges (@simonjbridges) November 4, 2020
6:57pm
The latest from the New York Times. It looks like Trump has Florida in the bag:
6:53pm
Twitter has swiftly deleted this tweet by Trump. Note the spelling error and potential suggestion of nefariousness in the election process:
6:48pm
And Trump is right in there too:
I will be making a statement tonight. A big WIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
6:46pm
Biden is optimistic: “We believe we’re on track to win this election...
"Keep the faith guys. We're going to win this."
He stressed the race wasn't over until all the votes were counted and said we could know the result as early as tomorrow morning (US time).
6:40pm
I take back what I said earlier... Biden is going to speak:
Tune in as I speak to the nation live from Wilmington, Delaware. https://t.co/ye8knRucoz
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 4, 2020
6:37pm
From Bloomberg:
States we might not know tonight:
— Bloomberg (@business) November 4, 2020
∙ Pennsylvania
∙ Michigan
∙ Wisconsin
∙ Georgia
That’s 62 electoral votes in total. 62 is a big number in a race for 270.
Here's the latest #Election2020 https://t.co/DP4Re9orIw pic.twitter.com/wsxrMtMXO4
6:10pm
It’s looking increasingly likely Trump will hold on to Ohio. He’s at 53%, Biden’s at 45%. 89% of the votes have been counted. CNN projects the state is Trump’s.
6:08pm
Biden isn't committing to speaking to the public this evening.
6:02pm
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is lower today than it was earlier in the week, but is still relatively high. The index represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Here's a chart showing a fall in the index over the past five days:
And here's a chart that contextualises the situation over the year:
5:33pm
Fox News reckons Biden has flipped Arizona. Biden is at 54% versus Trump at 45%. 75% of the vote has been counted.
5:28pm
A lot of red in this New York Times graphic:
5:26pm
Bloomberg reporter, Saleha Mohsin:
Wisconsin says there's no way they are announcing a winner tonight
— Saleha Mohsin (@SalehaMohsin) November 4, 2020
Michigan needs until Friday
Pennsylvania isn't coming out anytime soon, either
Per officials in those states
5:07pm
Trump has taken to Twitter:
WE ARE LOOKING REALLY GOOD ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. THANK YOU!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2020
5:02pm
Trump looking to secure battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgina, while Biden is leading the charge in Arizona.
4:45pm
According to ABC News, with 33% of expected vote reporting, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania with 55% to Biden's 44%.
In the all important electoral college, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election.
4:30pm
The Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, US TV networks say. This was expected. A key question is whether the Democrats can wrestle control of the Senate off the Republicans.
Worth noting that Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon supporter, won a House seat in Georgia. And rising Democrat star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez crushed her Republican opponent in New York, who raised US$10 million in his attempt to unseat her.
4:15pm
It's still too soon to call it, but it's looking as if Trump may be re-elected. Pennsylvania and Arizona are being touted as the key states for Biden.
PredictIt now has Trump as the winner as well.https://t.co/xafPzhrpPH pic.twitter.com/tofe90e7Hn
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) November 4, 2020
4:10pm
NBC's exit poll page has detailed breakdowns by gender, ethnicity, age and level of education on how the voting is playing out. Exit polls are surveys of voters taken as they exit their polling place.
Whatever the ultimate outcome of the election, it appears the polls are quite a bit off the mark again, as in 2016.
Regardless of who wins the US election now, the #US is going to be less different over the next four years than many people thought yesterday. 2016 needs to be accepted; it wasn't some sort of anomaly.
— Richard Yetsenga (@ricyet) November 4, 2020
3:56pm
Craigs Investment Partners Head of Private Wealth Research, Craig Lister, has tweeted a market update:
Markets turning more cautious. Futures lower, Treasury yields down... markets seeing a closer election outcome than expected, and a lower likelihood of a clear result tonight... more uncertainty, less agreement over fiscal support without the blue sweep that was expected.
— Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ) November 4, 2020
3:45pm
CNN commentators sounding downbeat on Biden.
3:27pm
Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck in Texas on 49% each, with 72% of the votes counted. The New York times says polls suggest Trump will take the state, but Biden could cause an upset.
3:13pm
Trump is ahead in Florida, 51% to 48%. 93% of the votes have been counted here. Polls showed a tight race in this state.
2:42pm
Biden is trying to pinch North Carolina off Trump. Biden is ahead, 53% to 46%, with 67% of the votes counted. A number of these votes were early and early votes tend to be more Democrat. The state had voted Republican in nine out of the past 10 elections.
2:20pm
Biden ahead in the swing-state of Ohio - 56% versus 43%. 41% of votes counted here.
2:15pm
Still too close to call in Florida but Trump seems to have an advantage. About a third of votes have now been counted in Texas, and Biden is still leading even though he not expected to win there. Still, it is a stronger showing than expected.
2:00pm
US ABC News is projecting Trump will win Georgia, but only 10% of that vote is counted so far. Polls have now closed in the Florida Panhandle region, one that will deliver a strong vote for Trump. In Texas, they have counted 10% of their vote and Biden is ahead, but most of that vote will be from cosmopolitan cities.
1:55pm
Tied now in Florida, with 81% of vote counted.
1:40pm
Biden is only just ahead of Trump in Georgia - 50% to 49% with only 5% of the votes counted.
1:30pm
With half the vote counted in Florida, Trump has a small lead. He won Florida in 2016.
1:15pm
The first important states to watch are Florida and Georgia. Both have had a head start in counting early votes, and both count quickly (because they do machine-counting).The Trump parts of the state (the Panhandle) will come in late, so unless Biden gets a very big lead early, it may be hard to hold. Georgia could be interesting.
123 Comments
I can't see the Dem's getting ambushed this time. My pick is the honeymoon period won't last long for the Dem's, they have been united by their loathing of Trump, but once he's gone and the parties are over, the power play's will start. No need for sleepy Joe anymore, particularly if he can't remember where he is.
https://www.afcent.af.mil/Portals/82/Documents/Airpower%20summary/(U)%2…
Sourced data and here is one of a number of articles https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/29/record-7423-us-bombs-dropped-i…
I guess the biggest problem with Trump, is his refusal to accept the science around climate. The man is an ecoterrorist! As the biosphere collapses this idiot has been busy appointing science deniers to the most important climate organisations on the planet! Hatred is appropriate for such an individual. The future of civilisation is at risk! https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denie…
Exactly right. Saying that Trump was not too bad is, quoting W.Pauli, "not even wrong", as it ignores this totally crucial aspect. This is an extremely challenging problem that might prove overwhelming unless global solutions are implemented, yes with no panic and while trying to preserve the economy, but with a real sense of urgency.
Furthermore, Trump's denial of science is representative of an American undercurrent that includes creationists, evangelists, climate science deniers and navitivists, all united in their desire to take the US back to a pre-Enlightenment cultural world.
Once you start denying science and you promote irrationalism , you get into a very dangerous slippery slope that includes not just denying climate change, but several other cultural, social and political aspects that together define the very nature of the society in which you live.
Moreover, the post-truth climate magnified by Trump, with its world of "alternative facts" is equally dangerous. Once facts become secondary to how loud you proclaim your "truth", you get into very dangerous territory, into the same frame of mind represented by Goebbels "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it". Watching a Trump's rally is really a sobering experience, a testament to the failures of the public educational system in the US, and to the wave of irrationalism and simple-minded populism that brought him to power. When we have a US president systematically oversimplifying the complexities and nuances of contemporary reality within the 140-characters of a Tweet in the middle of the night, we are in serious trouble indeed.
It is not just about the economy: Germany's economy was in a mess when Hitler was elected Chancellor in January 1933, and he apparently put it on a significantly better track. So, according to a purely short-term economic perspective, many would have said (and did say) that he was not too bad, after all. Reality is much more multi-dimensional, complex and nuanced than just a couple of economic indicators, and any reasonable judgment must encompass all such aspects.
Trump is actually good enough to protect US patch in world RE, he just bit dislike to the Chinese RE expansion worldwide. So depends on which side of the coin we are, those that benefitted from China RE expansion? or those that the curbing of it by Trump rubbing influence.
He's approach in management indeed is simplistic, but we often hear the best solution out there is actually the simplest way. I'm honestly, on the fence. Can see the previous administration, same old same old and can see the potential of new approach, albeit can tip to good & bad.
It's almost time!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDYNVH0U3cs
OreoContrarian,
And with luck, he will go. If Biden gets the 270 electoral college votes needed, then I don't see even a Conservative Supreme Court blocking him from the Presidency. What trump fears most is not just losing, but the avalanche of lawsuits that he would face.
A crook vs a narcissist, chosen from 300 million. Gotta wonder.
But affluence cannot be voted for, only the loss of its temporary state can be voted against. Until disbelief in the system becomes endemic.
Which can't be far away. Pity we're still repeating the US MSM picture; Clinton (H) was voted out. She represented the Establishment, something our MSM missed (Watkin rabbiting on about how it would have been good to have a woman in, for example). The voters don't really have an option, and - via social media, the MSM and corporate propaganda - don't understand what is happening to them. Interesting times.
With a so called democratic system, American people end up with choosing only between a lunatic and a narcissist.
There got be a better political system to put the right person in charge of a country.
I am so glad the the Chinese people are now having the right leader.
Same like NZ too Xing, we glad that majority of Kiwis choose the right leader. Now, it's up to you now to realise that NZ third largest ethnicity/Asians is actually being ignored by the current newly appointed govt. - check out their policies, ministerial pos etc., everything is about the second largest (Maori), fourth largest (Pasifica) & other minority inclusions.. Asians, ASEAN.. tough luck. Despite your rhetoric about OZ, what you missed is that.. OZ is actually open more towards Asians, ASEAN as compare to NZ. Times to ponder.
It shouldn’t be about ethnic group vs ethnic group, but only about the contest of ideas. If we go down the path of pandering to different groups based on their immutable characteristics we as a nation are stuffed. Although in saying that, in NZ we have a treaty where Maori and the Crown are meant to be equal partners, however clearly that isn’t the case hence work must be done to rectify that situation without sowing seeds of further division.
Am calling it - looks like Trump has won, based on electoral college votes per state. Significantly ahead in both Florida and Texas, both with lots of electoral college votes.
Biden is likely to win the popular vote by a landslide, once the populous West Coast states come online.
Kim's major sin is that..kinda stealing/not contribute tax./pay the original contributors in the US, off course utilizing sovereign nation that has no modern consciousness about the US copyright laws, whilst also promoted his business as a 'facilitator provider' not getting involve to what is being done in term of digital transactions inside their service. But hey, after 9/11? everything change isn't it? suddenly the facilitators cannot turn blind eyes (off course from time to time it's still being done, on/off by google, facebook etc.) - Though he can still use (if still got any last significant remaining asset) to operate the same scheme... but just not from planet earth.. my advise to host the service from... the moon?)
Why? The US has allowed the South China sea issue to be all but won by the Chinese. Chinese economy is still growing strongly while the US economy has bombed because Trump let COVID get out of control, with it still raging and no end in sight. While it is commendable that Trump has made a blanket statement of not starting foreign wars while in power, China (and Russia in Syria) has used that as carte blanche to do whatever they want. Hell, this term they may take Taiwan if Trump makes the same blanket statements. While the US suffers under division (class/race/politics), China is quickly becoming the worlds largest economy and pushing its economy up the value chain, virtually unopposed. They now have some of the best tech in the world, leapfrogging the west in digital payments/AI/blockchain/crypto currency and many other high value industries. Meanwhile Trump is running an estimated $3.3 trillion deficit. Sure this might not matter while the USD is a reserve currency, but the more they print, the more that is threatened.
So as far as I can see, China is winning economically and geo politically with Trump in charge.
When I talk to Chinese people they tell me that they see Trump as hilarious and basically a double agent for China. You only need to look at the economic situation of both countries to see that Xi is not worried, Xi will be laughing and rubbing his hands together.
How do you even compare NZ with the USA? very different countries. NZ is truly a small country, USA is effectively a confederation of many countries who have been in war not too long ago. Their political system reflects that history. As the above comment shows, in NZ most of the times very small parties, with very small percentage of votes, get to chose who will govern. Not the majority vote. That does not mean anyone is stupid though. And you already have gaps in NZ too. between Maori and the Europeans, Between urbans and counties, between old and young etc.
I personally consider being cheerleaders of political parties very stupid. They are here to serve us, it is not the other way around. But many people in democratic countries seem to think their preferred party is like the sport team they support. It is not only in US but everywhere. US is just a big stupid show
I’m not being a cheerleader, I couldn’t care less who wins. All I’m saying is that if you lived in say California, your state produced a huge proportion of the countries GDP, and yet you effectively had no say whatsoever on who led the country, wouldn’t you be annoyed? Compared to NZ where of the last 8 elections I can remember, the popular vote decided 7 and Winston chose one although if you add the total vote I think the left may have won.
Not that I necessarily disagree with the sentiment about Trump, but given the Democrats' conduct during their primaries (again) and now pollsters with platforms who predicted likely-Biden in states Trump won outright and fed into a media narrative that's determined to ignore the existence of a significant number of Americans in pursuing their own personal grudges against the President, I can't see how America ends up being any less corrupt, regardless of who actually wins.
The rural - urban divide is even bigger than the Blue state/ red state divide . Click on any state and see the difference between counties. Urban counties go blue , rural heavily red. This is why Trump is ahead early on , the rural seats report earlier , the big cities take time but tend to lean Democrat, even in Red states.
Trump won Florida because he got traction in Miami, as well as his rural base.
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-…
Polling booth fraud news is starting coming out now.
https://youtu.be/OM4uF0AQig4
Fox news says the two random ladies on the youtube video are wrong:
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/sharpies-can-be-used-on-voting-ballot…
H L Mencken quote 1920's:
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
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