Breakfast briefing: Recovery? or dead cat bounce?

US retail sales slip again; factory and service sectors recover from deep May slump; WTO sees bounceback; China reports some bank runs; UST 10yr yield at 0.71%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 65 USc; TWI-5 = 69.6

24th Jun 20, 7:20am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets seem happy to accept a dead-cat bounce as evidence of 'recovery'.

US retail sales as monitored by the Johnson Redbook where down -1.4% week-on-week in a disappointing result. Year-on-year they are down -6.1%. Both metrics are marginally less than the prior week but we are still seeing deterioration even it at a slightly slower rate.

The next regional Fed survey is out for June for the Richmond Fed district and it reports a 'flat' result although this is a big improvement from May. Shipments were relatively flat, more firms reported increases in new orders, but firms generally reported continued reductions in employment.

Overall, the latest June national business PMIs show an improvement too, but they are still contracting, just contracting at a slower rate. The American service sector is still shrinking sharply but the factory sector is almost at a steady state. But it is an abatement from May.

The story is similar in Europe, still contracting but much less than in May as lockdowns end. Japan also reported a weaker decline but that was all driven by a services bounceback; the Japanese factory sector hardly saw any recovery. Australia on the other hand managed to post a small expansion in June, boosted by a services bounce-back. Their factory sector is still contracting however.

The Australian trade balance rose to AU$87 bln in the year to May as Aussie exports fell -13% in the month while their imports fell -18%. Cars and oil took the largest hit in May, falling to record low levels.

Wall Street sees these PMIs as evidence the world's economy is pulling out of its slump. The S&P500 is up +0.8% so far in late trade but the earlier gains are being wound back. That follows European markets which were up by much more - the German market rose +2.1% overnight.

And the WTO says although world trade fell sharply in the first half of the year, the situation is improving better than they had expected and it is unlikely to reach the worst-case scenario projected in April. Still, trade is unlikely to recover to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

In China there are recent reports of bank runs at a handful of small regional institutions. Inherent scepticism of official reassurances can be toxic in situations of stress, a key downside in an opaque economy like China's.

And Australia is one of 10 countries to retain its AAA credit rating through the coronavirus-induced global recession, after Moody's maintained its stable outlook.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is now 9,154,200 which is up +147,000 since yesterday and a faster rising pace. Global deaths now exceed 474,000.

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +35,000 since this time yesterday to 2,326,000 and they are in a new surge phase. US deaths now exceed 121,000. The number of active cases in the US is now up to 1,565,000.

In Australia, there have been 7492 cases, +18 since yesterday. Their death count is still unchanged at 102 deaths and their recovery rate just under 93%. There are now 475 active cases in Australia (+6).

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 0.71%. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is holding at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is also holding at +59 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +2 bps to 0.90%. The China Govt 10yr is also up +3 bps at 2.95%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield has joined the trend higher, up +4 bps to 0.93%.

The gold price is higher yet again, up another +US$10 to US$1,766/oz.

Oil prices have inched up again, now just under US$40.50/bbl in the US. The Brent price is just over US$42.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is marginally higher this morning at 65 USc although a few hours ago they touched 65.3 USc and have slipped steadily from there. On the cross rates we are stable at 93.6 AUc but against the euro we are just a little softer at 57.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is still at 69.6.

The bitcoin price is little-changed since this time yesterday at US$9,668 today. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our currency charts are here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

157 Comments

by Averageman | 24th Jun 20, 7:45am 1592941535

Should be just a bounce, but with the volume of printing to protect assets we are in uncharted seas. Does logic apply anymore?

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 8:51am 1592945467

I dont play the stock market but it sounds very logical to me. Buy on the low, ride it up for a couple percent then sell. Repeat while the Fed continues to pump more money, 2% plus gains every week instead of 2% a year in the bank.

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 9:24am 1592947443

Works quite well, until that one week where you lose 30% and all of the gains you'd made year to date, as well as some of your original capital.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 9:50am 1592949025

Yip, exactally why I would'nt play that game.

by Houseworks | 24th Jun 20, 9:50am 1592949022

It's as easy as taking candy from a baby, here a trade, there a trade, everywhere a trade trade.... I dont think so. Invest sensibly for the future in companies that pay dividends, now is a good starting point. Note, yes there are companies in a growth phase that dont pay divvies, I ignore those ones... speculating and one day the music stops.

by fortunr | 24th Jun 20, 2:29pm 1592965769

I agree with those sound principles.
However the problem we are now facing is that historical dividend returns might have little relationship with future dividends, in this Covid-19 world. Yes there are also the so-called "defensive" stocks, but they often appear to be the most over-valued. So I don't know how "defensive" they really are.
It definitely appears to me like a tricky game, especially now, in an environment where economic fundamentals appear to be meaningless in a world saturated with money printing by the Central banks.
I am not suggesting a retreat from share investing ( I have not sold one single share this year, actually I bought some), but in my opinion the environment is becoming more and more risky and opaque.

by Houseworks | 24th Jun 20, 3:36pm 1592969785

Yes risky in the extreme... in the short term. 6 months from now will be much clearer view of financial health and the pandemic. The elections for us and USA will have happened too and probably anything could happen. Funny thing is I never feel as unsure on the macro view when it comes to property investments. This week we signed up to a contract

by Tradersam | 24th Jun 20, 9:25am 1592947544

The Fed now owns 30% of US GDP, it’s on track to own 100%. It’s essentially privatising corporate America. Welcome to the USSA - United Soviet States America.

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 20, 9:32am 1592947977

Not sure if 'privatising' is the right word...more socialising or similar?

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 20, 10:36am 1592951805

Attlee was fond of nationalise.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 7:28am 1592940505

Deny, deny, deny. Trump asked his people to slow down testing, next he'll ask them to stop testing so he can tell the world that there are no new cases of COVID in the US (actually i can't believe he hasn't already thought of this as an election strategy!). Then he will be able to say he cured America. But don't bother him with trivial details like people dying. That could get you sacked!

by RCD | 24th Jun 20, 7:55am 1592942129

It seems Jacinda was way ahead of trump in that regard, and let 20,000 people into the country without testing the majority of them and is now in full denial of this deceitful practice,as in yesterdays interview on RNZ:

"It's still unknown how many people left self isolation without being tested.

But the Ministry of Health is following up on more than 2,000 people who left isolation facilities between June 9 and 16.

Dr Ashley Bloomfield says everyone was screened before leaving - but are now being followed up to find whether that included testing.

He says it's important they get in touch with more than just the people who were given compassionate leave or anyone associated with the Novotel hotel.

Bloomfield says all the travellers completed their 14 days of mandatory isolation, received a health screening on departure and were offered testing."

What a weak and ineffectual policy, that can be driven by only one motive, make NZ (and its politicians) look clean and efficient by not revealing any confirmed cases. This one will return to bite them (and us) on the backside very severely

by FCM | 24th Jun 20, 8:20am 1592943609

Are you surprised RCD that government can't implement policy in the world outside Wellingtons corridors. A large number are career politicians and government employees, so do not have the necessary operational skills. That is exactly why the promises of an economic recovery led by government initiatives will not eventuate, and we will enter a long and painful recession.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 8:27am 1592944066

No it isn't.

We are entering a 'period of consequences', which you steadfastly avoid addressing, in your one-eyed attach on the current Govt. The joke is that you're both on the wrong track. This is a 'homo sapiens (well, maybe) meets the Limits of the planet to support growth. Actually, we're several years, if not decades, past the inflection-point.

But it's still two legs gooooood, four legs baaaaad - while the farm turns into a waterless, overheated dustbowl.

by FCM | 24th Jun 20, 8:48am 1592945322

Well then PDK you would be one that would want CV19 to take hold and eliminate as many homo sapiens as it can then...only issue is will you survive if you get it?.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 9:04am 1592946255

Maybe not. But I've had a life that medieval kings would have envied, longer than most too.

The bigger question - for all of us - is how to address the future. It's a matter of becoming long-term maintainable (sustainability has become hijacked meaning-wise). That requires a war-time effort, all hands to the pumps, and we're overdue. There are 'best cards' to play, sequentially. But until we have the truth in our narrative, we won't identify them. Addressing Climate will do some by default, but it's still flying willfully blind.

go well

by rastus1 | 24th Jun 20, 9:05am 1592946300

There has always only been three choices, war, famine/disease or birth control. Well we’ve passed on birth control (in this country our welfare policies encourage it) so take your pick. Truth be known, fighting the virus is a can kicking exercise.

by Henry_Tull | 24th Jun 20, 10:35am 1592951751

FCM, interesting you should say.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rural/2020/06/james-shaw-will-consider-b…

Things are getting real.
Moving beyond policy and European conference dinner tours..

Local sawmiller John Larsen believes the scheme is already too far gone and affected-farmers have to "fear for [their] future".
"It makes me very pleased to know that I'm the age I am and my life is nearly buggered. I've had the good times. The bad times are coming," he told Newshub.

And1....
If the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) goes ahead as it is, wool buyer Henry Hansen expects he'll have to lay off staff.
"It's always in the back of your mind, everyone sort of thinking [the Government is] just nibbling away, keep buying the odd farm here or there."

And2.....
But it's not just the wool buyers and sawmillers. Teachers, a stock agent and a vet told Newshub they all believe their livelihoods are under threat.

"What are you telling us as a community, are you happy this is happening to our ancestral lands? Because we sure are not," teacher Puri Hauiti said.

Compared to the alternative reality the wise policy promoters dwell in (people not bearing the consequence of the policy they promote & signal, more like it).

https://youtu.be/L-D2wu01UW8
Who knew of such off farm fawning?

by oldbloke1 | 24th Jun 20, 8:28am 1592944095

Please tell us your qualifications in epidemiology and disease control - so we can know that this isn't just your repetition of some newspaper beatup.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 8:31am 1592944292

OB qualifications mean nothing. One can study and validate information easily in today's information focused world. A dependence on qualifications will lead you to falling short a lot. Ask for references as to his sources of information.

by RCD | 24th Jun 20, 8:40am 1592944810

OB
i don't need any qualifications to copy and paste a direct transcript of an interview with the man concerned

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 9:52am 1592949136

OB. You seem to be okay with anything and everything the Govt dose. This isn't a child's sports game where we dont keep the score because we dont want to hurt anyone's feelings, it is real life that has massive effects on all of us.

by youngdumbandbroke | 24th Jun 20, 9:51am 1592949092

The die hard Labour man back on the offensive

by npc | 24th Jun 20, 11:50am 1592956232

Appeal to authority.

You don't need degrees in epidemiology and disease control to understand that cheap Covid19 tests should have been given to those kept in quarantine. Especially given that the people in these hotels have been mingling freely and have travelled from countries with massive infection rates. We're testing thousands each day that are very unlikely to have been near any live case!

I'm beginning to think the government's approach to this pandemic has been more about giving the appearance of control and competence, than actually containing the virus. When it goes wrong, they'll claim the "team of five million" failed them..

by wee willy winkie | 24th Jun 20, 5:10pm 1592975443

4.999 million have been doing their bit, it's just the incompetent .001 who are letting the show down.

by sharetrader | 24th Jun 20, 8:31am 1592944283

the news is out 51 out of 55 let out early without a test to attend funerals, if we got no community transmission that was just down to luck.
looks like the MOH and DHB (whom do the testing) had a difference of opinion as to what was required, and it has taken the PM to step in and get the order rewritten so there is no out for the DHB.
remember AB would not call waitameta DHB up on going against the nurses wishes against working on a covid ward then a shift on a general ward , most likely because some lazy middle manager could not be bothered doing the rosters. he is the man at the top if he says i want this done it should be done no matter what the DHB management think, he pays them

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 9:28am 1592947738

if we got no community transmission that was just down to luck.

No. It's highly unlikely any of those people actually have COVID-19. That's why they were let out of isolation early. If that had been in quarantine, then they would not have been eligible for early release at all. They also had specific plans set out for what they could and could not do once they were released - yes we need to rely on people to actually follow instructions, but again it's not like we just randomly let people wander off and do their own thing, as you're implying.

"Just down to luck" would imply we did absolutely nothing to screen these people and asses the risk they posed. That is not the case.

The fact we don't have any community spread is down to risk assessment policies *and* luck, with the risk assessment playing a much larger part in the outcome than luck (which is the entire point of any risk assessment activity).

by guwop | 24th Jun 20, 9:31am 1592947904

It is a huge over-reaction from the government imho. The current restrictions also make it quite impossible for Kiwi's to leave. Me thinks quite a few will depart these islands for good once the restrictions loosen up. For one I am thinking about it myself.

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 9:42am 1592948562

I don't think the NZ government is putting in restrictions preventing people leaving, rather it's every other country not allowing non-citizens in.

by frazz | 24th Jun 20, 10:08am 1592950109

No reason you cant leave now..though doubt you would be tough enough.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/19/sailor-completes-three-month-solo-a…

by Mr T | 24th Jun 20, 8:49am 1592945389

ICYMI: Melbourne quarantine hotels to get more health workers as new virus cases emerge. It follows outbreaks at two hotels – the Stamford Plaza and the Rydges – that have grown to 33 people https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/quarantine-hotels-to-get-mo…

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 3:33pm 1592969607

The reality is, has there been any new cases as a consequence ---NO.
Another beat-up by Muller trying to get a political edge or gain that will once again, go nowhere. His health minister, Coleman, is trying to invent scenarios that didn't even exist with his homeless person story. We haven't heard from their Lower Hutt member about his involvement concerning the early release of the two English ladies. Obviously, he has been told to go underground by his leader. This all looks totally negative for National in my view.
Why doesn't Muller do something positive by promoting Bennett to the front bench so he can confirm the party has Maori representation. It's obvious Bridges isn't coming back.

by Ex Expat | 24th Jun 20, 8:59am 1592945998

Rolling the dice with our lives. Not kind or competent.

by RCD | 24th Jun 20, 9:09am 1592946550

The reality is, has there been any new cases as a consequence -----------------------NOT YET-------- (that we know of)

by Foyle | 24th Jun 20, 9:13am 1592946824

Bennet is fairly effective and good at handling media. She should be promoted on the basis of her competence, rather than on her ethnicity. The identity politics you are promoting is endlessly toxic racist antediluvian BS designed to wreck rather than improve anything

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 11:33am 1592955221

Muller said at the time there was diversity on the front bench and there wasn't. Don't you "remember" the first stuff-up he made. Or is it convenient not to remember.

by Ex Expat | 24th Jun 20, 11:36am 1592955417

I remember Light Rail. What a dogs breakfast this lot have made pf Policy delivery.

by Foyle | 24th Jun 20, 2:02pm 1592964164

I'm not really interested in what Muller says. Pandering to the broken bigoted nonsense of identity politics is stupid, whoever's mouth it comes out of. Victimhood pyramids, original sin, sippenhaft, guilt or nobility bestowed by birth are all ideas best left in the dark ages - anything else is just seeking to excuse perpetration of new injustices, judging people on their genetic makeup rather than their actions. Egality is the ideal.

by wee willy winkie | 24th Jun 20, 5:15pm 1592975750

The All Black front row is selected on its ability to scrummage, not its colour or ethnic diversity.

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 12:20pm 1592958014

Following that logic, you'd be totally happy if the front bench were entirely men. Who cares about the perspective of women, men know best.

by Foyle | 24th Jun 20, 1:41pm 1592962887

Yes, but it is highly unlikely in this day and age. Women and men show similar ability and interest in getting into politics, there is no need for the soft bigotry of tokenism the racists/bigots of the left are so focused on.

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 2:59pm 1592967597

Yes, so it's clear you don't consider different views or perspectives to be important as part of "competence", or in a government that is intended to manage the entire country.

Reminds me of the Apple developers who made a health tracking app in which you could track your intake of trace minerals such as molybdenum. But because they had no females on the design team, they neglected to build in the ability to track your menstruation cycle - something with far more people are concerned about than whether they're getting enough molybdenum.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 3:27pm 1592969261

Bennet has not been promoted because they all know she isn't that good at what she dose. From what I hear from people who have worked with / for her they do not have much nice to say about her.

by youngdumbandbroke | 24th Jun 20, 9:54am 1592949296

Does the public's loss of confidence in the MoH count as a consequence?

by pigeonbox | 24th Jun 20, 10:42am 1592952140

Coleman has been gone for over two years

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 3:40pm 1592970009

Woodhouse then, both just as bad as each other in my view. Woodhouse denied the fact that it was not his responsibility to upgrade the hospitals over National's Nine Year reign. He was a parliamentarian then, too. I am amazed at his hostility when responding to questions about his previous government experience. That attitude is going to rub up the wrong way of the majority on NZ voters. We will never forget the Nine Years of Nothing from the Key government. No wonder he (Key) resigned giving Seven Days Notice when he knew the writing was on the wall.

by Ex Expat | 24th Jun 20, 11:42am 1592955726

Followed by three years of troughing. What a disaster this government is.

by AKLCrusader | 24th Jun 20, 11:12am 1592953978

Trolling? Yes. Logic Thinker? NO
Mentioning the Nats is another distraction, they had no influence on the decision making and systems run by the Government and the MoH.

The SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT JOB, was BORDER CONTROL. We were promised it was under control, Trust us! The fact that it was left to dumb luck, poor controls, no systems, and insufficient oversight is criminally negligent. If a Director fails to manage a risk, and an employee gets hurt at work, they are personally and criminally liable for not controlling the risks.

Labour "acknowledged" the failures, but blamed others after taking responsibility earlier successes. Where is the accountability? Gutless.

by Ex Expat | 24th Jun 20, 11:30am 1592955007

Is it an ironic moniker choice.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 20, 4:17pm 1592972269

Coleman departed before the last election. Suggest there is opinion out there, that a lot earlier than that would have been better. If it is true that his nick name round the health sector was Doctor Death, well that would sum it up really.

by Rhumline | 24th Jun 20, 11:40am 1592955615

For goodness sake! You don't like Labour. That's fine, but stop trying to pervert what they've tried to do into a cheap political stunt. I seldom vote for them, but I will give them credit for learning from their mistakes.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 2:00pm 1592964045

Labours inability to manage continues. I don't see them learning at all. Take control, do not accept failure, sack the non performers.

by kiwichas | 24th Jun 20, 12:10pm 1592957442

Very slow learners

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 12:46pm 1592959611

Muller is in a desperate situation. He knows the support for National is slipping, as a consequence, his position is on the line so he has to say anything that he deems semi-positive for his survival. Luxton will win Botany by a landside and as a consequence, he will be the leader by March 2021.

by Doris | 24th Jun 20, 3:15pm 1592968509

Another unappealing bald religious white middle-aged male. Will people even notice the difference?

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 6:15pm 1592979305

I didn't know that he was religious. I had hoped that he would be the next leader of National that would have half a clue about sorting out NZ.
What is it with National and religion / Comunisium that they can not understand that NZ is not pro either. The local Nat politian wants to put their promo up in my garden... fat chance with them pushing relligous and communist values.

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 4:01pm 1592971292

I am afraid some people are locked in a Time-Zone that they cannot get out of. The current government has had to repair the damage of the previous Nine Years of Nothing and sure they are going to make some mistakes along the way but I am sure New Zealand will be a better place to live in than any other country going forward. I used to be a National supporter but changed my allegiance at the last election when I discovered National got too close to China. There ex-mps were getting on Chinese company boards, donations, the housing market and they turned a blind-eye to China taking our water for free. There attitude to repair Christchurch (and Canterbury) earthquake with Brownlee at the helm was cavalier to the optimum. The relationship with Key and John Campbell was toxic, it was for all to see on Campbell Live. And today, Labour has had to act on this and repair the damage. In essence, Cindy's profile internationally completely outshines John Key's profile when he was in office. I am sure he wished he could pull her hair.

by Ex Expat | 24th Jun 20, 6:15pm 1592979343

Ring 1737. I’m worried for you.

by wee willy winkie | 24th Jun 20, 5:24pm 1592976282

At the present rate of mistake making they will end up being the most learned government ever.

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 8:57am 1592945878

Keep watching CNN - the lowest rated interaction channel in the USA - who have a major shareholding in Mediaworks.

by sit23 | 24th Jun 20, 9:03am 1592946222

Trumpie later said he was pulling an idiot journalist's leg about slowing down testing. Your mistake has been knowingly twisted and used ad nauseam .

by RCD | 24th Jun 20, 9:10am 1592946656

And then trump said "i don't kid"
The man himself is the idiot

by npc | 24th Jun 20, 11:53am 1592956425

Billionaire property mogul and President that took on the entire political and media establishment - and won!

He's a lot of things, idiot is not one of them. You should listen to Trump and stop watching CNN, it's fake news!

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 12:23pm 1592958181

lol

Listening to him is what made many of us conclude he's an idiot.

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 3:01pm 1592967684

Wait till Biden opens his mouth and speaks. They really are like the Two Ronnie's show. Too old to be contesting the presidency.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 1:29pm 1592962143

Biden is on video boasting that he influenced another countries political system, the very same offence as the Dem's tried to pin on Trump with hearsay.
Trump will have the paper work sitting there ready to file against him when it will be too late for the Dem's to elect anyone else to run. Hopefully a stack of legal to hold Hillary accountable as well.

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 3:08pm 1592968096

Yes, Clinton Cash is a must read. Her shambolic display in reconstructing Haiti, after their cyclone disaster, with her cronies who also contributed to the Clinton Foundation is criminal. What was Obama doing during this time,turning a Blind - Eye no doubt.

by realterms | 24th Jun 20, 9:26am 1592947606

Standard trump playbook. Say something idiotic, then later claim to be joking.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 4:03pm 1592971407

Then on the flip side we have the Democratic Party playing witch hunt after witch hunt that they failed to make stick. They keep spouting that Trump is an idiot (and he is) but who is the biggest idiot.. the idiot or the idiots that arent smart enough to get rid of an idiot... The Dem's play book is too cast doubt on Trump but if they get in we will all see they are just a rabble with one policy and that is to get rid of Trump.

by Adam B NZ | 24th Jun 20, 7:29am 1592940540

It will be interesting to see what the Global economy looks like when Government money scrambles run out in many places over the next couple of months. Its going to be interesting to see what the cost to the NZ tax payer is going to be from all of this as well. What sort of Taxes are we going to be paying in the future? An increase in Taxes will slow any sort of economic recovery for this country and many others.

by bw | 24th Jun 20, 7:39am 1592941182

Taxes?!
We won't be paying any tax in the future. None; zero; zip. We don't need to.
All we need is an ongoing series of Government Credit Creation Schemes ( let's call is a GCCS so we don't get it confused with all the present support mechanisms). No one needs to pay tax. That's dinosaur thinking.
We can finance the requirements of every country on the planet with GCCS money.....( Not to be confused with MMT of course!) (sarc/off)

by Avocado | 24th Jun 20, 7:56am 1592942212

bw, completely agree. Government will create the money. MMT is definitely the future with the way things are going.

by theglc | 24th Jun 20, 2:31pm 1592965907

Government should print and give a million dollars to everyone, we'll all be millionaires.

Yay no poor, no homeless, no responsibility, no accountability, no need to work..... Perfect!

by Alter Ego | 24th Jun 20, 5:10pm 1592975420

We cannot all be called Politicians.. not workers can we?...that would be bizarre.

by DIYman | 24th Jun 20, 7:57am 1592942263

Taxes based on income are not going to bring enough in if our own example is being played out around the country. Net residential rental income dropping fast, and thank goodness we don't have any debt. Other rental income in tourism related industry close to zero, down from over 100k a year, my tax bill will drop, and now expecting to get almost all my prepaid provisonal tax back.

by frazz | 24th Jun 20, 8:08am 1592942916

The debt will be kicked again down the road for your kids (if you can afford them) to deal with. The boomers have all the cards and will play their hand till the very end.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 8:31am 1592944280

There has been no chance the existing debt could be repaid, a circumstance which has been in place for some time. So adding to it is no problem. It's what happens when disbelief set in, is the question. A rush to cash and gold (not enough of either), bank closures, funds tanking....

by Mike1 | 24th Jun 20, 9:09am 1592946576

PDK our world views could not be more different but I agree with you on this. The debt out there cannot be repaid and if we are going to crash the system what does extra debt even matter at this point. We had a chance of a decent reset in 2008 and we chose to act like children. I can see a real case where assets prices keep rising as the economy disappears over the next few years. If that happens the social violence we are going to see will be incredible.

The only out is a world war. Pessimistic for sure but how else do you reset this thing? No one will take a loss so everyone has to lose.

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 20, 9:25am 1592947540

This is what I don't get - asset owners have done exceptionally well post GFC. Why not now some humility and good grace and good will towards those who, for whatever reason, missed that wealth gain? (for many, it was a case of age!).

Instead it appears that asset owners want even more wealth. I.e. its unfettered greed. And you know the saying 'be fearful when others are greedy'. Even though many think there is fear out there and its time to buy, I just see greed - meaning its time to be fearful.

I agree about the violence thing. Central bank policies are or are going to tear society apart if they haven't done so irreparably already.

The question comes back to whether we can service our debts - firstly from a business perspective, then also from a household perspective. I'm struggling to see how we will unless something gives or there is some radical change to the system we're functioning under. People have large mortgages, businesses are taking on more debt...we need to generate more and more earnings and income to service the additional debt - but we're not doing it.

by ham n eggs | 24th Jun 20, 10:45am 1592952323

"it appears that asset owners want even more wealth.."

Noone has become more wealthy ... Promises have just got bigger ... as Leverage has been wound up to off the scale

INCOMES are where the rubber meets the road
This is where it will break

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 20, 11:13am 1592954007

Completely agree. And its why I think we're in a liquidity trap. We think we can just create more debt to help support earnings/income growth. But to me, I don't think we can do that now.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 12:01pm 1592956906

A financial system melt down, it was coming with or without Rona.

by ham n eggs | 24th Jun 20, 10:49am 1592952582

Debt doesnt need to be repaid - thats not the problem

The problem is we need MORE NEW debt to provide incomes ...
Without incomes we risk deflation on a wide scale, crashing commodities .... But new Debt without real growth is eroding any value left in MONEY

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 9:44am 1592948679

Bond prices would have collapsed by now if that was the case. Sovereign bonds generally retain their pristine collateral status and remain the financial world's backstop to illiquidity because central banks failed in their attempts to revive growth that can be capitalised to generate income for the masses.

by morphyoss | 24th Jun 20, 9:20am 1592947237

I guess there was no option but to spend the money, if they didn't spend on the wage subsidy it would have been spent on the unemployment benefit.

At the least NZ has very low rates of govt debt, even after covid. With predictions of it peaking around 50% of GDP before starting to fall again. For comparison the USA was at over 100% of GDP and this was before COVID hit.

NZ went into to this with one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios compared to other countries and was dropping year on year before COVID. Australia was higher before COVID and was rising.

So it will be really interesting to see how it all goes, but i am just very thankful we are in a relatively strong position to ride out the storm.

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 20, 9:30am 1592947836

That is a false narrative in my view. What about household debt - which you fail to talk about?

Fitch Ratings reports that this country has one of the world’s highest household debt levels, at 93% of GDP.

It’s estimated 70% of homeowners are mortgage-free, which sounds a solid number. But the trend is steeply in the wrong direction. Of those aged 50-64, only 38% are mortgage-free, according to the Commission for Financial Capability, which says the number entering retirement with freehold homes has been declining for two decades, with no sign of a turnaround.

Factor in the stalling market, with Auckland’s prices down 0.9% in the past year, and we may have to add negative equity into the near horizon.

https://www.noted.co.nz/money/money-property/household-debt-nz-levels-r…

by realterms | 24th Jun 20, 10:18am 1592950714

What does household debt have to do with the OP's point?

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 12:25pm 1592958326

Everything apart from the first line in this comment is copy and pasted from The Listener article linked in the last line.

by stuart786786 | 24th Jun 20, 7:36am 1592940993

Read an article and realized the level of influence, if can go after something so small as mentioned in article must understand the level of intolerance by China. Imagine the bully that our political leaders must be facing from them and at the same try to maintain ther dignity and to enforce policy/ views dictat to them but to potray as doing it for our country.

No wonder many shit in their pants if have to give their view on South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Uighurs..........infact any view not supported or not in line with the master.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12342…

by Uninterested | 24th Jun 20, 7:48am 1592941727

This is one brave guy. He should be given a medal.
There should be an official investigation into the Queensland University about this.
And in NZ here there should be a similar investigation into the influence that is placed upon NZ Universities.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-24/lowy-poll-australians-sceptical-…

by J.C. | 24th Jun 20, 7:59am 1592942393

And in NZ here there should be a similar investigation into the influence that is placed upon NZ Universities.

I think if you asked about this issue to Shipley, Brash, Tremain, Sabin, Bridges, etc, you'd learn that CCP influence is nothing to be concerned about and the future of NZ's economic wellbeing.

by bw | 24th Jun 20, 8:04am 1592942661

And we have a recent photo of John Key ( in a personal capacity, of course) to assure us of that wellbeing.

by richard1965 | 24th Jun 20, 8:09am 1592942992

'Trust in China has plummeted in recent years, poll of Australians says'

Not only in Australia but world over as China stands exposed now.

Check any news ...sorry bad news like war be it physical for land or sea or biological or economic or cyber war...one common name stands out China.

Based on their policy of offence is the best form of defence, will see more war or war like situation being created to bully or to create disturbance to gain supremacy. So this will not end soon, as is now up to world to take on or submitt their souverignity.

by Tradersam | 24th Jun 20, 9:58am 1592949488

The West today will become China tomorrow. I hope not !

by guwop | 24th Jun 20, 9:46am 1592948770

NZ and OZ are already provinces of China. Including the controlling of their people.

by frazz | 24th Jun 20, 10:28am 1592951315

I'm reporting that comment - needs to be censored from the people

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 9:49am 1592948986

And yet: Defying Dire Predictions, China Is the Bubble That Never Pops

by zorba - old | 24th Jun 20, 10:06am 1592950004

Oh, no investigation needed...always follow the money - from the article -
"If the Chinese Government was to suddenly declare that its students couldn't study at UQ because its campus was too politically sensitive, the uni would lose about $1 billion in revenue over the coming decade."

Twenty per cent of the university's revenue is derived from fees from Chinese students, of which there are 9000 currently enrolled.

In 2018, international students contributed a total of $570 million in tuition to UQ's coffers."

I'm sure it's the same argument in NZ..

by xingmowang | 24th Jun 20, 8:01am 1592942480

South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Uighurs are purly China's internal matters and some are China's core national interests.

The US always uses these issues to divide China. therefore any countries follow the US suit to biasly and wrongly impose accusations on China will be sanctioned.

the AUS is now a perfect example that NZ should avoid to be.

by nymad | 24th Jun 20, 8:05am 1592942701

It must be such an easy life being told what to think.
I bet it takes a lot of stress out of the day.

by Foyle | 24th Jun 20, 8:08am 1592942904

Be Kind

by Zachary Smith | 24th Jun 20, 8:37am 1592944628

Ha, the irony.

by Mike1 | 24th Jun 20, 8:06am 1592942779

China doesn't exist without the West. You can't even feed yourself.

by richard1965 | 24th Jun 20, 8:12am 1592943151

If have to choose democracy over dictatorship ......anytime.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 8:22am 1592943767

Those areas are NOT purely internal Chiese issue Xing. They are a matter of great concern to peoples all over the world, not just the US. And the UQ incident clearly shows that China can take that attitude towards people anywhere in the world it chooses.

Xing most countries learned from WW2. We abhorred the Nazi solution for the Jews, the Japanese 'rape of Nanjing'. And we, the people, will resist any Government's efforts to carry those attitudes into our times. We will challenge our own Government's failure to call China to account on it's actions, and especially any action undertaken in OUR country. You came to NZ. If you came with the view to becoming a Kiwi you need to change your attitude. If you are a loyal Chinese, then I am sorry, but please go back to the country you love and admire so much!

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 10:23am 1592951037

Xing most countries learned from WW2. Did they?

In the middle of the current global turmoil, largely ignored by the Western media, President Vladimir Putin of Russia recently wrote an article for the National Interest magazine (the article is featured on this site). In it, he magisterially dissected and integrated one of the most disputed topics in contemporary history—the cause(s) and antecedent(s) of World War II. The article is long and very detailed, drawing on a rich historical and historiographic documentation and it leaves no stone unturned. The point I wish to elaborate on here is that far from being a historical dissertation, the article is a last warning to the enemies delivered in the form of a parable. Rather than expound on the precarious state of the world and the seemingly inexorable drift to war, Putin used the tragic landscape of the late 1930s Europe to shed light not only on the true causes of WWII but also on the causes of a rapidly approaching WWIII. Link

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 20, 11:03am 1592953418

Yes read all of that when you last posted. Well written and translated undeniably. And it is deadly true that the west spurned the invitation of the Soviets to ally against the Nazis. Ironically it was only Churchill, a previously staunch anti bolshevik, who recognised the folly of that. It is easy to gloss over history though from all sides of the argument. This piece does not near acknowledge the lucrative trade the Soviets enjoyed supplying raw materials to the Nazi war machine prior to Barbarossa. An embarrassment that was well and truly fired back at them. Nor the apathy and denial by the fanatically suspicious and paranoid Stalin as to Hitler’s real intentions. So what’s it all about then? The balance of power surely. Militarily the USA is still mighty powerful and the homeland buffered by two big oceans. Very very big call and risk to start up some real big action with them one would think.

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 11:34am 1592955280

They have a better maintained nuclear arsenal sitting on top of hypersonic delivery systems unavailable to the US. And as the West claims Russia keeps moving closer to their borders.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 20, 12:13pm 1592957624

Aye and the real scary point is we find ourselves today exchanging views on strengths and weaknesses of apocalyptic potential. History tells us well and truly, that not only the threat of the balance of power being destabilised but extreme societal and economic pressures have catalysed war. Usually though the beginning is territorial. The Nazis, the Ruhr Valley, Austria, Czechoslovakia. And so we have had Russia, nudging Ukraine and Georgia and eventually annexing Crimea. The Baltic states? What the west would enjoy one suspects is Russia and China re- occupying and distracting themselves with a scrap over control of Mongolia. Guess from here no much else to do but wait and see?

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 11:04am 1592953477

Most is most, not all. Yes i read about Putin's rewrite of WW2 history. Not really a surprise that a KGB educated leader would present a distorted perspective of history, especially when the authority of the leadership in Russia is pretty much absolute either above or below board.

Interesting though, two of the worlds largest nations are becoming more extreme in a bad way. One wonders where this will end?

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 11:37am 1592955455

Badly and hot if we remain cavalier. The Germans found out the hard way.

by Lapun | 24th Jun 20, 10:48am 1592952497

Has Xingmowang admitted to being an immigrant from China? It is possible he (not sure why I assume male) was born in NZ like a 100% Han Chinese friend who was born here 76 years ago. It is quite possible to admire the Chinese Communist party - it is not my cup of tea - but England was full of admirers of Lenin and Stalin and even had a few Hitler fans. Although Kiwis in the main are anarchists, rule breakers who cut down the tall poppy and generally resist authority there are some who think differently and it is good to see their opinions expressed so we can challenge them.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 11:11am 1592953868

He has previously disclosed that he is a resident here.

And I agree that I mostly respect the opportunity to hear his perspective and opinion. I draw the line when he actively advocates the suppression of free public expression of opinions and views, which is effectively what he was doing here. He also shows a remarkable amount of naivety in doing so, as do the other students who came out against the protest at UQ. If they had not reacted they way they had, this protest would have passed with almost no notice, and at several times throughout the process it was possible to achieve that. But because they chose to react, violently, and get the faculty to censure and expel this young man, he now has been given a voice far louder than would have otherwise been the case. Not only does he have national notice, but he has international notice too. China can hardly be happy with that!

by Poppyc | 24th Jun 20, 8:33am 1592944401

How is the South China Sea an internal matter, when it literally involves other countries sea rights?

by CourtJester | 24th Jun 20, 9:31am 1592947874

Don't you know? The whole world belongs to China. Thus whatever China does is an internal matter.

by Jolly Penguin | 24th Jun 20, 8:36am 1592944574

I went and took a look for myself. You can't blame the US for China's crimes against humanity, that's on China. Granted, the US are no angels - but China's practices are nothing short of contemporary Imperialism - an insistence that 'internal problems' should not be criticised by non-Chinese attempts to hide the criticism of such policies within China itself and by those oppressed.

by CourtJester | 24th Jun 20, 9:30am 1592947815

Editors, can we expect a ban of CCP propaganda on this site at some point?

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 9:41am 1592948460

Actually no we don't want that to happen. What we want is for Xing to go back and tell his masters that the population of NZ are failing to fall into line and believe that the CCP is our messiah. The Chinese state security apparatus probably already has dossiers on all of us who go against Xing's comments. But I for one will continue to give them the finger!

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 10:31am 1592951511

Murray I am glad that you have the means to do that.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 11:17am 1592954269

Anyone can do it Audaxes, simply by discussing freely and openly China's involvement in the World, just as we do for our own and other Governments. We can resist misinformation and propaganda. We can challenge views, we can simply tell it how it is. I believe that such debates strengthen a democracy, by providing a good perspective of how and what people think. For autocracies such as China though such debate is viewed as a threat. It is a threat because, as we see so often here, people will research another's opinion/perspective across the net, finding the/a 'truth' to argue. This makes it hard for any Government to hide behind a sanitised version of their 'truth'.

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 11:39am 1592955567

Others are too tired from their labours to even notice.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 11:47am 1592956046

Many are, but I find I am never too tired to think. Often too busy to contribute to interesting debates though.

by ShoreThing | 24th Jun 20, 11:02am 1592953360

We live in a democracy where we are free to say what we like. I'm sure you can appreciate the irony in wanting to ban someone who spouts pro-CCP lines?

by CourtJester | 24th Jun 20, 11:24am 1592954677

CCP propaganda and disinformation campaigns are a threat to democracy. Just look at what happened in the US...

by ShoreThing | 24th Jun 20, 12:13pm 1592957627

Banning parts of the discussion you don't like is a threat to democracy. The correct response to propaganda and disinformation is to confront it and have an informed debate, not to have David hide the bad words so you don't have to see them. Most of the users on this site understand this and do so when XMW comes along.

by CourtJester | 24th Jun 20, 12:40pm 1592959238

To me this is similar to the paradox of tolerance.
The CCP has shown its true face in the past few years, and one of their agendas is to bully every country smaller than theirs into submission. They don't tolerate free speech, they don't tolerate a different opinion, and they actively work on sowing the seeds of these views in online communities.
So the question is, should people who believe in tolerance (and free speech) tolerate propaganda that advocates for the opposite?
After all, (neo)nazi propaganda is banned on most sites, so is blatant racism. Should they be allowed to share their views too?

by ShoreThing | 24th Jun 20, 12:58pm 1592960333

"They don't tolerate free speech, they don't tolerate a different opinion, and they actively work on sowing the seeds of these views in online communities."

And here you are actively trying to limit the topics we are allowed to speak about, without a hint of irony. It becomes hard to argue that our way of life is morally superior due to our free speech and democratic values if we suppress opposing views in the same fashion.

by CourtJester | 24th Jun 20, 1:04pm 1592960644

I suggest you learn about the paradox of tolerance. A line has to be drawn somewhere. It's actually already drawn (racism, nazi ideas etc.). I'm just wondering when CCP propaganda will finally be treated as the propaganda of a government that would under no circumstances allow the discussions we are allowed to have in this country.

by Kezza R | 24th Jun 20, 4:29pm 1592972940

Religion needs to be included in that as well. They are both the same, it is just that one is more evolved than the other. The church has murdered hundreds of millions over the years that did not agree with them.

by Anzac888 | 24th Jun 20, 10:43am 1592952223

Wu Mao.....Why do you live in NZ if you are so aligned with the nonsense that comes out of your utopian homeland? I'm not sure whether you are being sarcastic or just a troll. If it is such a paradise and you agree with everything BJ states, why are you here? Are you a sleeper? If you benefit from the capitalist roader running dog society maybe you should absorb and learn the culture of a free, fair and compassionate society.

by Foyle | 24th Jun 20, 2:06pm 1592964365

The whole world has critical interest in China's hegemonic ambitions. The age where that was acceptable ended 6th August 1945.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 20, 8:13am 1592943190

One amazing guy! The fact that China has infiltrated UQ to this degree should be ringing alarm bells in Aussie AND NZ! It puts Mary-Anne Brady's claims into a somewhat more stark light.

by alittle | 24th Jun 20, 8:25am 1592943902

Bully to some political leader but it is also a boon for many political leader like leaders in National party as for them China equates to Rock Star Economy

by frazz | 24th Jun 20, 8:30am 1592944247

Shocking this is happening across the ditch..good luck to him. I hope Scomo acts fast as sounds like CCP is in control of some of the major Universitys.

by taimaiakka0 | 24th Jun 20, 8:36am 1592944592

They believe in shaping young mind / brainwash so start at grass root level.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 8:41am 1592944908

Are you referring to the CCP or the Horizon Church?

by Logicthinker | 24th Jun 20, 8:31am 1592944267

If the pressure China has put Australia is an example of their negative power to cause econmic unrest in a country then we will see other countries joining the Five Eyes organisation. You would think India would ,obviously, become a member together with the European countries who have been ripped off by China with PPS equipment. And the pandemic itself is in secondary mode.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 8:42am 1592944953

Actually, we've used China as a source of slave-waged labour and as a toxic dumping-ground (until they refused to take it anymore). Sure, their political cadre at the top is autocratic, scary and probably corrupt, but is the US any better?

And most of us forget that it's less and less about countries or nations; it's about power being held by unchallengeable corporates:
https://ellenbrown.com/2020/06/22/meet-blackrock-the-new-great-vampire-…

by Lapun | 24th Jun 20, 10:51am 1592952664

"" their political cadre at the top is autocratic, scary and probably corrupt, but is the US any better"" - no I'd say US leaders are far worse. But in the USA you can criticise your leaders and even replace them every four years.

by Peter hardwick | 24th Jun 20, 8:31am 1592944265

I still can't believe what's going on with the lack of testing , before the returning kiwis are let out into the public,and there shouldn't be any early companionate leave from quarantine, keep hearing the returnees moaning about going through quarantIne , bacically TOUGH you were all told to return before lockdown, covid was around and main headline news across the globe from January , obviously didn't suite there plans at the time, now it's costing the country a fortune, and we just have to keep our fingers crossed that there's not another outbreak of covid, I am pissed off along with every other person,business that has greatly suffered through level 4 and 3 in lock down,and basically the-shambles that's going on with not testing everyone at the border, what a shambles

by Fegus Woodward | 24th Jun 20, 9:14am 1592946885

It is crazy, an absolute shambles. Why are people still returning now? the advice was clear, get back here. What have you been doing for 3 months? Hanging out and catching Covid to bring it back thats what.

by guwop | 24th Jun 20, 9:39am 1592948377

I am currently thinking about leaving to be honest. And I wouldn't be surprised if a decent pack of brain-drainers will fly out on a one-way ticket when things loosen up.

I don't believe NZ's internal market can cope with what is to come.

by Lanthanide | 24th Jun 20, 9:39am 1592948387

Yeah, people should have just abandoned their houses, pets, jobs and foreign family overseas and immediately returned to New Zealand when Winston Peters put out that clarion call. Totally reasonable expectation.

Let's just ignore the people who couldn't get back because borders were shutting and flights being cancelled.

by polygonalvector | 24th Jun 20, 9:55am 1592949323

It's very simple.

People are losing their jobs overseas, or being kept in lock-down unable to work - and crucially UNABLE to claim any sort of welfare payments.

As a result, these deadbeats look back to New Zealand and see what - hey have a free 14 night stay in a 5-star hotel and then we'll sign you up for benefits.

They're coming back for the free ride - and once they've sucked that dry, they'll be back off overseas.

by guwop | 24th Jun 20, 10:04am 1592949893

You haven't travelled overseas much, have you?

by Mike1 | 24th Jun 20, 9:14am 1592946885

Peter I know someone that is returning for six weeks to NZ. They do six weeks on, six weeks off and plan to keep doing it. The person doesn't even have a residence here.

by bw | 24th Jun 20, 9:37am 1592948258

And which country would that be to when not in NZ? Most won't let anyone but their citizens in ( like us; Australia being the closest example), and even if they have 2 or 3 passports, just getting flights in and out will be (1) hard and (2) expensive and (3) risks being trapped in situ if clamp-downs happen again.
So 4 weeks in an hotel 'on the taxpayer' might not be as free a ride as they hope?

by PaulO | 24th Jun 20, 9:37am 1592948251

A prime example of someone who should be paying for quarantine out of their own pocket.

by bw | 24th Jun 20, 9:39am 1592948389

Sounds like the mythical 'freeloader' who joined the back of the Copthorne queue to me! Folklore - a good story. But then again, I hope for the best from people, not the worst.

by guwop | 24th Jun 20, 9:43am 1592948594

It is sad to see that so many New Zealanders went from genuinely welcoming strangers/travellers to becoming total xenophobes. Including to their own people. Because of 10 cases.

by youngdumbandbroke | 24th Jun 20, 9:49am 1592948976

Genuinely? We were only so welcoming when they brought their $$ here, not out of goodwill.

by sit23 | 24th Jun 20, 9:09am 1592946585

If Xing can say that Taiwan South China Sea etc are an internal Chinese matter, then he will admit that all the USA shenanigans are also an internal USA matter and are nothing to do with us either. But does that stop Xing commenting and giving the CCP official line on these events? Not a bloody show.

by Lapun | 24th Jun 20, 10:54am 1592952894

It is a useful name 'South China Sea'. Its salt water washes the shores of many countries and many disputed reefs and islets well out of sight of the Chinese mainland. Maybe India will do the same with the Indian Ocean and claim islands of the west coast of Australia. Christmas Island? Mauritius?

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 20, 11:50am 1592956232

We could claim the Tasman but someone would push it over.....
So much for Pacificism

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 20, 9:55am 1592949349

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 0.71%. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged at +52 bps.
Jury Still Out on Japan Yield-Curve Control, Fed Economists Find

by TommyYank-old | 24th Jun 20, 10:22am 1592950920

"The fact we don't have any community spread is down to risk assessment policies *and* luck, with the risk assessment playing a much larger part in the outcome than luck (which is the entire point of any risk assessment activity)."
To me this reads the DHB didn't want to pay for 100% screening, but are not the most dangerous carriers asymptomatic--and account for up to 40% of active Covid-19 cases? Not testing in Feb when this was unknown makes sense, but in June it does not. Just as we learned that all the hand washing in the world doesn't account for much-instead the most dangerous transmission is airborne by simply a carrier speaking loudly to people nearby.

by TommyYank-old | 24th Jun 20, 10:23am 1592950986