New Zealand will move to Alert Level 3 at 11.59pm next Monday April 27 - nearly five weeks after going into Level 4.
This means the country will remain in full lockdown over ANZAC weekend.
Cabinet ministers made the decision during a meeting on Monday.
They will review the situation again on May 11.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: "Ultimately, we have taken a balanced approach, and one that the Director General of Health not only supported, but also recommended."
She said there was "consensus" among Cabinet ministers (who are from Labour and New Zealand First - there are no Green Party ministers in Cabinet), but didn't go so far as to saying it was a unanimous decision.
At Level 3, an additional 400,000 people are expected to return to work. Treasury expects Level 3 to reduce "normal level" output by 25%. According to its modelling, Level 4 slashes it by 40%, Level 2 by 10-15% and Level 1 by 5-10%.
Contact tracing an issue
Ardern said Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield was confident there's currently "no widespread undetected community transmission" in New Zealand.
"Nearly every case identified since April 1 is as a result of overseas travel or contact with someone with the virus, often in existing clusters. The number of individual cases that don’t have an obvious connection in that period stands now at only 8," she said.
"Our transmission rate, the number of cases each person with the virus passes it onto, is now 0.48 - less than half a person each. Overseas the average is 2.5 people."
However a report prepared by University of Otago epidemiologist, Ayesha Verrall, and considered by Cabinet, found the country's contact tracing system isn't up to scratch.
In response, Cabinet has approved investment of up to $55 million to improve contact tracing.
Verrall said: “The capacity of the 12 Public Health Units (PHUs) in New Zealand is the primary factor limiting New Zealand’s ability to scale up its case management and contact tracing response to Covid-19.
"In March the workload of PHUs exceeded their capacity to conduct rapid contact tracing on occasion, even though case numbers were less than 100 per day. Expansion of the Public Health Unit workforce is an urgent need."
In terms of the National Close Contact Service (NCCS), set up by the Ministry of Health on March 24 to do contact tracing at times of high demand for PHUs, Verrall said: “The NCCS is an impressive service especially considering it has been established in just weeks.
“However it is not a suitable nor desirable system for managing all contacts. The NCCS also has limited use in certain important situations, such as in the event of a large complex cluster or specific scenarios that require intense involvement of Medical Officers of Health."
Health Minister David Clark said the funding will mean PHUs can be expanded as required, with additional surge capacity of up to 300 full time equivalent staff. The NCCS will also get extra resources to manage complex investigations, such as detailed analysis of clusters.
Verrall also said: "At the time of writing the Ministry of Health and local developers are building a smartphone app to assist with contact tracing. As it is not yet completed and a number of key aspects are under consideration, it cannot be meaningfully evaluated."
'Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases'
Ardern went on to say: "We have a relatively low proportion of serious cases and, according to the Oxford University Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, one of the lowest mortality rates in the world...
"Our testing has scaled up and we have now tested over 85,000 New Zealanders, one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world.
"In the last few days, we expanded testing to include random testing in Queenstown, the Waikato, Canterbury and Auckland. We have tested over a thousand people this way and so far have produced not a single positive result...
"In short, the effort of our team of 5 million has broken the chain of transmission and taken a quantum leap forward in our goal to eliminate the virus.
"Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases. It means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see COVID-19, we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under 1, and it is how we will keep succeeding.
"And we have seen success...
"But I also feel a huge responsibility to ensure that we do not lose any of the gains we have made either."
There were nine new cases of COVID-19 reported in New Zealand on Monday (seven confirmed and two probable cases), bringing the total number of cases up to 1440.
Twelve people have lost their lives to COVID-19, meanwhile 974 have recovered.
The criteria
Level 3 is aimed at allowing businesses to open their premises, but only if they can do so safely and without interacting with their customers face-to-face. People can only expand their household bubbles under limited circumstances.
The following criteria must be met for New Zealand to move to Level 3:
- The Director General of Health must have a level of satisfaction community transmission is unlikely. There needs to be data from testing and surveillance, public health experts, statisticians, and modellers for there to be “reasonable certainty” around this.
- Contact-tracing must be sufficiently rigorous, with surge capacity available in the case of an outbreak.
- Self-isolation, quarantine, and border measures need to be robust and adhered to.
- There needs to be capacity in the health system and personal protective equipment should be available for those who need it.
Cabinet ministers also considered:
- The effects on the economy and on society more broadly.
- Public attitudes towards the measures and the extent to which people and businesses understand, accept, and are overall complying with them.
- The ability to operationalise restrictions, including satisfactory detailed implementation planning by government agencies.
National: Groundwork not done to lift lockdown
National released this statement in response:
The decision for New Zealand to stay locked down in Level 4 shows the Government hasn’t done the groundwork required to have us ready, Opposition Leader Simon Bridges says.
“The public has done a great job of self-isolating and social distancing. The entire country has made huge sacrifices to ensure the four week lockdown was effective.
“Unfortunately the Government hasn’t done enough and isn’t ready by its own standards and rhetoric. New Zealand is being held back because the Government has not used this time to ensure best practice of testing and tracing and the availability of PPE hasn’t been at the standard it should have been.
“The rate of testing for the first half of lockdown was low, work has only just begun on surveillance testing to confirm whether community transmission is occurring. Tracing is the biggest challenge and experts have identified major shortcomings in the methods being used by the Government.
“This is a real shame as businesses will suffer further damage and that will lead to poor health outcomes as a result of the huge stress this will cause for a lot of people.
“Rapid and easily accessible testing for workers with symptoms will be essential to give small businesses the confidence needed to get back to work.
“I’m sure many Kiwis feel frustration that we still can’t do many things Australians have done through the entire lockdown period, at great cost in terms of jobs and livelihoods, with similar health outcomes.
“I now worry that the harm of staying in lockdown will be greater than if we were to come out. We will no doubt see a rise in mental health problems and stress related illnesses.
“I also have real concerns about the delay in healthcare for some people, like cancer treatment, screening and thousands of operations across the country.
“New Zealanders can be proud of the sacrifices they have made during this difficult time. The Government must now move as fast as it can to sort out the issues with tracing, testing and PPE so we can get our country moving again.”
Level 3 overview
The requirements under Level 3 are:
- Business
- Work from home unless it’s impossible to do so.
- Businesses can open premises, but can’t physically interact with customers.
- Building and construction, manufacturing and forestry can open under strict health and safety and physical distancing rules.
- Businesses that are accessed by the public or customers such as retail, hardware stores and restaurants can open but only for online or phone purchases and contactless delivery or click and collect.
- Personal
- Stay within your immediate household bubble. You can expand your bubble to reconnect with close family, or bring in caregivers, or support isolated people. This extended bubble should remain exclusive.
- Stay home other than for essential personal movement – going to work, school, or for local recreation.
- Keep two metres of physical distancing outside the home (including on public transport), and one metre in controlled environments like schools and workplaces.
- Travel
- Don’t travel between regions unless this is for essential work, medical reasons, shifting home or business, going home after being in isolation after returning from overseas, and a limited number of other reasons.
- Education
- Schools (years 1 to 10) and early childhood education centres can safely open, but will have limited capacity. Children should learn at home if possible.
- Tertiary education facilities open for limited activities involving small groups (up to 10 people), and with distance learning provision for others.
- Recreation
- Low-risk, local recreation activities allowed. Swims at the beach, day walks and fishing from a wharf are allowed. Boating, yachting and team sports or training aren’t allowed.
- Public venues remain closed (IE libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, playgrounds, markets).
- Weddings, funerals and tangihanga allowed if there are fewer than 10 people. Physical distancing and public health measures must be maintained.
- Health
- Primary care services can open (including dental and allied health) and use virtual, non-contact consultations where possible.
See this document for more on all four alert levels.
Ardern's comments in full
Here's a copy of the statement Ardern made on Monday:
Over the past few weeks I have often used my time at this podium to acknowledge the people on the frontline.
Today I want to remember the people in New Zealand who have lost someone to COVID-19, or the many more who had the terror of almost losing someone.
Throughout this pandemic there have been individuals who I have tracked the progress of. I didn’t know their names, but I knew their status. And I still get a phone call for every individual person we lose to COVID-19.
We may be amongst a small number of countries where that is still able to happen, where the numbers we have lost have been small, but we cannot forget that every number is someone’s father, someone’s mum, a relative and a friend and someone we have all been united in an effort to protect and to save.
And that is why we as a country took on the challenge of staring down COVID-19 – because we believed that decisive action, going hard and going early, gave us the very best chance of stamping out the virus. And it has.
We have done what very few countries have been able to do. We have stopped a wave of devastation.
Our transmission rate, the number of cases each person with the virus passes it onto, is now 0.48, less than half a person each. Overseas the average is 2.5 people. We have amongst the lowest number of confirmed cases per 100,000 people in the world.
We have a relatively low proportion of serious cases and, according to the Oxford University Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.
Nearly every case identified since April 1 is as a result of overseas travel or contact with someone with the virus, often in existing clusters. The number of individual cases that don’t have an obvious connection in that period stands now at only 8.
Our testing has scaled up and we have now tested over 85,000 New Zealanders, one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world.
In the last few days, we expanded testing to include random testing in Queenstown, the Waikato, Canterbury and Auckland. We have tested over a thousand people this way and so far have produced not a single positive result.
The Director General of Health is confident that there is currently no widespread undetected community transmission in New Zealand.
In short, the effort of our team of 5 million has broken the chain of transmission and taken a quantum leap forward in our goal to eliminate the virus.
Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases. It means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see COVID-19, we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under 1, and it is how we will keep succeeding.
And we have seen success.
You, all of you, have stopped the uncontrolled explosion of COVID-19 in New Zealand, and I couldn’t feel prouder of the start we have made together.
But I also feel a huge responsibility to ensure that we do not lose any of the gains we have made either.
On that basis, New Zealand will move out of Alert Level 4 lockdown at 11.59pm on Monday April 27, one week from today. We will then hold in Alert Level 3 for two weeks, before reviewing how we are tracking again, and making further decisions at Cabinet on the 11th of May.
In making this decision, Cabinet discussed in depth all of the data we have shared with you daily. We looked at the gains we have made in our results, but also our systems.
We considered that the longer we are in lockdown, the less likely it is we will need to go back. We also considered moving alert levels on the 23rd of April, in just 48 hours’ time.
The sacrifice made to date has been huge. And Cabinet wanted to make sure we lock in our gains, and give ourselves some additional certainty.
Waiting to move to alert levels next week costs us two more business days, but gives us much greater longer term health and economic returns down the track. It means we are less likely to go backwards.
Ultimately, we have taken a balanced approach, and one that the Director General of Health not only supported, but also recommended.
This time we now have will be used to prepare, on all fronts.
This week businesses will be allowed to get ready to open, such as employers re-entering premises to receive stock if necessary, but we ask that in doing so they stick to social distancing and their bubbles.
The same principle applies for preparing schools.
Schools and early learning centres can be accessed this week for cleaning, maintenance and any other preparations. The current plan is for schools to be able to re-open for a Teacher Only Day on 28 April as part of their preparation, and we expect those who need to attend, to be able to from 29 April. It may take a bit longer for some schools and early learning centres to be ready.
And from a health perspective, testing will continue including giving ongoing public confidence that we are reaching isolated, rural, maōri and pacific communities, contact tracing will be bolstered even further, and we will continue to use the best evidence, advice and modelling we have to make daily decisions to serve New Zealanders.
The most important thing to remember in the meantime though, is that all of this preparation takes us to an alert level in one week’s time – a recovery room of sorts – that has many restrictions
Yes Alert Level 3 allows more economic activity like construction, manufacturing and forestry, but it does not allow more social activity. And for good reason. If we want to make sure that we are a health success story, and ensure our economy can start to operate again without the virus taking off, we need to get the next phase right. The worst thing we can do for our country is to yo-yo between levels, with all of the uncertainty that this would bring.
We need to move with confidence. And that means following the rules.
So here’s a reminder of the principles for Level 3 when we get there.
1. Stay home. If you are not at work, school, exercising or getting essentials, then you must be at home, the same as at Level 4.
2. Work and learn from home if you can. We still want the vast majority of people working from home, and children and young people learning from home. At-risk students and staff should also stay at home, and they will be supported to do so. Early learning centres and schools will physically be open for up to Year 10 for families that need them.
3. Make your business COVID-19 safe. COVID-19 has spread in workplaces, so the quid pro quo of being able to open is doing it in a way that doesn’t spread the virus. Important industries like construction, manufacturing and forestry will be able to open, as will retail so long as it is contactless retail.
4. Stay regional. You can exercise at parks or beaches within your region, but the closer to home the better. Activities must be safe – keep 2 metres away from anybody not in your bubble. Make minimal trips.
5. Keep your bubble as small as possible. If you need to, you can expand your bubble a small amount to bring in close family, isolated people or caregivers.
6. Wash your hands often with soap. Then dry them. Cough into your elbow.
7. If you’re sick stay at home and seek advice from your GP or Healthline about getting a test. And quickly. There is no stigma to COVID-19. None. We will only be successful if everyone is willing to play their part in finding it wherever it is.
These rules will be so important. We all want to continue to progress down the levels. The best hope of getting back to normal as soon as possible, is never getting ahead of where we are right now.
So, to recap. We are currently in lockdown, and are staying there for the next week.
From Tuesday morning the 28th of April we will move to Level 3 and stay there for two weeks. Those two weeks gives us another cycle of transmission to assess how we are doing. From there, we will move if we can and if we’re ready.
But only when we’re ready, and only when it’s safe.
And so, this weekend, ANZAC weekend, enjoy the company of your bubble, stay local, and reflect on the amazing sacrifice of our forebears.
Decades ago they came together in the most testing of circumstances half a world away and helped forge who we are today. It was a very different battle than the one we are in now, but the character of who we are as a country remains exactly the same.
So please, stay strong, stay home, be kind. And let’s finish what we started.
202 Comments
Smart politics to funnel all the critical information through her reading a press statement every day. With this the most critical news in town and with the general absence of other news due to the lockdown it raises her profile among generally disinterested voters using a very controlled and non-confrontational format, just about the best advertising the Labour party could ever hope to get for themselves.
I think overall they have made the two key decisions correctly.
1. Entering Lockdown (although I would have made it stricter)
2. Leaving lockdown (although I would have made it looser)
But there is still ample room for criticism, particularly in the lack of details, and execution. A level 3.5 just makes life hard for all. By all accounts we are still meant to be locked down, but will all have joined bubbles via either work or school. Thus defeating the primary point.
Essentially from the 28th, the only thing locked down now is our Personal freedom.
Not sure about that. Lockdown is costing at least 3 Billion a week in lost GDP, not counting the destruction of jobs and businesses occurring as it extends further. Other countries have steadily falling case numbers with far fewer restrictions and less economic damage, and seems unlikely that eradication is actually possible, so more likely opening up as much as possible while keeping the infection numbers falling (copying other countries who are doing that successfully) is a less economically damaging approach.
Which countries? Norway? Heh, I heard Italy's numbers were falling. Is it just the first wave though?
Maybe this 5 week lockdown buys our health system enough time to assess the situation and prepare? It's not like we're good at running a trade surplus anyway, so who cares about GDP at the moment?
Sad (but not surprised) to hear that the word eliminate' does not actually mean 'eliminate. Scratch that from the Oxford.
So we have been lied to all along that the goal is to eliminate. Oh wait, it's achievable to eliminate even though we will have more cases after its eliminated. How confused are the government right now.
Good we are moving to Level 3. One month at L3 then BAU
Even if we get near L0 in the near future thinks like face masks, washing, small groups will persist for a while. You never know, the normal flu season might be hit for 6 also with the flu vaccine rates increasing as well as use of the face masks.
Hopefully cooking shows might go. Cant see anyone artfully arranging small food items by hand being considered as anything more than the dirty bastardos they've always been.
Aye BpnPC, that was my understanding too from the initial proclamation(s.) Someone needs to write a dictionary encapsulating the “political” meaning of words. It would though need a volume for each letter. This extension is a compromise, a reasonably sensible one at that. If things worsen over the next seven days, then another extension. If not, then everyone is where they were told they would be. If NZ continues a net daily gain of say 40, recoveries vs new, then the total active will be down to around about 200 and the trend seated in. The horizon will be in sight, and clear.
R0 since case numbers peaked has been 0.48, about 2 more weeks should bring as to an 'average' of no new cases, providing no accidents from already infected. There is significant margin to relax measures without getting over R0=1(where case numbers start to increase again). We just have to use cheap but effective measures like masks for everyone (why hasn't govt announced that??), testing every symptomatic person + town sewerage, and rigorous contact tracing (get a suitable phone tracking app on everyone's phones)
That maybe one opinion, but other opinions differ. In South Korea and Taiwan they are common place. Surgical N95 masks I understand are what is needed, . Cloth masks are not as effective. Apparently a surgical mask reduces the wearer's chance of getting the virus by about 68% to 74%
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2190272/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/
But they must also be put on and taken off safely. I think the problem is a lack of supply as to why they aren't being promoted, as you can't promote something if there isn't the quantity of product available to promote.
Hi B-Practical_not_PC,
No lies to be seen: Elimination is actually the correct term to be using, which is a reduction towards zero of the incidence of infection caused by a disease in a defined geographical area (NZ) as a result of 'deliberate efforts'; continued measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission are required.
You are likely misinterpreting this with the word Eradication. This means to remove altogether - Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence (like small pox)
It has been raised by many schools (and ECEs) as an option.
From what I have heard. The Govt would have preferred to keep schools shut, however legally an under 14 can't be left home unsupervised. So if you want the people to return to work, you need somewhere to take the kids.
I have no idea how essential workers have been coping. I am guessing more than a few have been breaking bubbles, skipping work, or leaving kids home alone.
Yes well that stupid law should be changed. Most children past 8 are quite capable of fending for themselves. At least they used to be. Jeepers if anything goes wrong most kids have adult neighbours within a stones throw. We treat children like babies. They are not.
Quite right. I've only lived in NZ for 18 years but during that time the sign about unaccompanied children at local swimming pool as changed three times increasing the supervision each time. Maybe Kiwi kids are getting more stupid or more likely lawyers are willing to sue if children have an accident.
My own grandson is 10 and I would trust him on his own for a full day so long as he had the ability to bust his bubble if absolutely necessary (as we all might do if our house caught fire or a family member had a serious accident).
Quite right. I've only lived in NZ for 18 years but during that time the sign about unaccompanied children at local swimming pool as changed three times increasing the supervision each time. Maybe Kiwi kids are getting more stupid or more likely lawyers are willing to sue if children have an accident.
My grandson is 10 and I would trust him on his own for a full day so long as he had the ability to bust his bubble if absolutely necessary (as we all might do if our house caught fire or a family member had a serious accident).
So schools are just being used a childcare centres. But they have already said that someone can go into a bubble to look after kids, to join their bubble. So there are other options.
Schools have proven to be incubators for the virus, as is shown by one of the biggest clusters which is from a school. Even experts say schools shouldn't open.
" Even experts say schools shouldn't open."
Do they? Our expert of all experts says otherwise - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/121143985/children-with-coro…
Yes Professor Michael Baker said on One News directly after the announcement that he didn't think schools should reopen in L3. He is an expert on infectious disease epidemiology, pandemic influenza and how it can be contained . I understand he was the one that advised the government to go into level 4 lockdown and worked with them on it.
I wouldn't be surprised if the government do a U-Turn. It is a bit like the problem where we didn't put all returning travelers into quarantine. We only learnt later when they decided to do that, that the numbers coming into NZ were previously too great to allow this to occur earlier.
We home school our kids. You only really need 2/1/2 hours a day to get all their learning in - the rest is social activities and pursuing their own interests. I used to be a sceptic - the school day is 6 hours. But now I'm sold- that extra 3 1/2 to 4 hours the kids would be at school is just childcare and reinforcing unnatural social structures - where else in life do you almost exclusively interact with people born in the same year as you?
I'm seeing R0 used incorrectly all over the place now. R0 is a measure of how transmissible an infection is if we take no action and have no immunity. R0 is a static number that never changes regardless of any action we take. The effective reproductive number, R, is the measurement of how transmissible a disease is accounting for the preventative measures we take. R might be 0.48, R0 certainly isn't.
Aye, there it was. A fellow airforce officer friend of my father, and his son is one of my best friends, was in 75 and he came home with CGM for an exploit whilst on Stirlings. What he actually did would make your hair stand on end but read his log book, nothing more than a day in the office really. Nonchalant courage, can’t beat it.
I don't think that is right. I googled this, not my words. https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubv…
Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
R0 changes depending on the environment it is spreading within.
A country that has very dense population well have a higher R0 than one with very spread out population.
That's without accounting for changes in behaviour, just the initial starting state the disease has to work with.
In practice R0 is never a universally fixed static number.
I wonder what the modeled rate is under level 3? Under level 4 it was model above 0.5, but ended up being closed to .48. But if it is anything over 1, then we have a problem, as we. Modeling showed if we stayed in lockdown for longer, we had a far larger chance of eliminating it, and then potentially going out of level 3 lockdown faster.
Act 1, scene 1. Host, lantern at the gate. Welcome to the Hotel Contagia! Feeling a bit nauseous? Never mind, but keep downwind, hot shower, couple of Manhattans that’ll do it. Amex # please. Go downtown, intermingle. Business as usual. Life is good for those that are not old.
Good call. Get the long weekend out of the way, before relaxing restrictions.
Hope they increase testing manifold to cover the entire population. Better to be safe completely.
Number of people outside will increase from next week, so the risk and the outcome has to be monitored constantly.
Enforcing travel restrictions beyond the Region (?) is going to be dicey.
Cops will be under more pressure. Same as Healthcare staff.
Each and every one of us has to behave with much common sense and selflessless. We shall Win.
- Schools (years 1 to 10) and early childhood education centres can safely open, but will have limited capacity. Children should learn at home if possible.
Paraphrased: Schools are not open, but maybe under some circumstances. Your job however will be back up and running. Good luck Parents, you will need it.
Yes, tough choice for parents who can go back to work but have children at early childhood centers that won't open due to fear of the virus. The impossibility to remain 2 meters apart from children 2-5 years of age will be a concern for older qualified EC educators.
What concerns me is the clear contradictions coming out of Govt. They obviously have no firm idea as to what to do re; schools.
If they are safe then we can send our kids. If they are not safe....
From Stuff.
In regards to why ECE and school-based environments are considered safe under Alert Level 3, Bloomfield says they looked "very carefully" at overseas information when looking at how children are impacted by Covid-19.
He says they are confident it's safe to open up ECE centres and primary schools under Alert Level 3.
Ardern reiterated that they are wanting people to continue to stay home. "We are not expecting large numbers to be in attendance," Ardern says.
and
Ardern says they are asking parents that can keep their children home, to do that.
"If you can keep your children at home, you should.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jgh.15047 This paper reviews evidence that Covid19 can be present in stools of those infected and though its persistence in the gut is not definitively known it can be found after respiratory and nasal occurrence has disappeared. The authors cite evidence that the virus can remain viable in aerosols for hours and on stainless steel for at least 72 hours. The implications for infection in public toilets including school toilet facilities make it worth a read.
Australia will come out of this in much better shape than New Zealand. Totally unbalanced decision making by this government.
Cafes, gyms, cinemas - will be unnecessarily decimated thanks to this government. People don't realise that we aren't going through the tough times now - this is the holiday before the actual consequences.
Maybe they will but we will still come out better off than almost all other countries. There is no pleasing some people.
I think they have been lucky, obviously the more businesses you keep open the more chance of contagion. One hairdresser could have spread it everywhere. Their luck may run out.
Different states in Oz are doing things differently. Some of the public in Oz apparently want them to go down the NZ blanket approach, to get it eliminated. Currently they are just flattening the curve and doing herd immunity, so they don't overwhelm the health system, but they don't appear to have plans on eliminating and stamping it out. In NZ we only have 1000 ICU beds for a population of 5 million. In Europe they have 4000 beds per 1 million people, so 20,000 beds per 5 million people . So in NZ we only have 5% of the ICU beds they have in Europe, so we risk overwhelming our health system very quickly if cases grow. So we had no option to do what we have done
There's been kite flying for the last few days about extending for a week to two weeks and everyone can breath a sigh of relief its only one week.
It's unfortunate that there not another category of services in level 4 other than essential, say exempt services that could be introduced on a case by case basis. I can think of one where gardening services do not need any contact at the consumer end but may be a problem at the disposal end. Perhaps the powers that be thought there would be numerous people at the disposal end with pitch forks and rakes all working in close proximity of each disposing of the garden refuse.
Jenée - the Verrall report (or a simalcrum thereof) has been published.
Title: "Rapid Audit of Contact Tracing for Covid-19 in New Zealand". It's a necessarily short doc: RTWT.
Well found.
Well foreshadowed.
It is a shame that resource transparency is still to be had. We are not mind readers, nor should be left as believers.
1. What ppe do we have, what do we need, how is gap being addressed.
2. What is the covidtesting, test plan, & antibodies.
3. Flu vaccine - as per1.
4. Acknowledgement of contact tracing issues, and what if any adoption of the audit appendix functions/kpis.
It's more a cost, not so much an investment.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414692/covid-19-contact-tracing-too…
Comment from the phu(s) would be helpful.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promised at today's 4pm briefing to use $15 million to expand tracing staff numbers from 220 to up to 300, and put another $55m towards building the tracing system to "gold standard".
$55 million spent in ? How many days?
Stuffs own reporting
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121130191/coronavirus…
He would be taking literally the same advice from the same people as Ardern. Of all the takes out there, this is the worst. It's not like Ardern has handled this absolutely flawlessly or been as truthful as some here are making her out to be, but she has been a clear communicator when it comes to getting the points across she wants to get across.
Make of the following what you will.
Simon is on record as criticizing the stopping of flights from China and also saying Jacindas primary consideration should be keeping people working.
Apart from that he has mostly grudgingly stated that he is supporting govt action.
Except the government were already working on plans to to roll out quarqntine. They weren't "extremely relaxed" about it, they were working out all of the details.
Turns out that when you're the opposition you can just say "I think the government should just do this". Except actually doing things - and doing them properly - is a lot harder than just flapping your gums.
But how can that be, because didn't the Government 'close the borders'? You mean they didn't? I am shocked. Numerous reports from Kiwis returning home that there was little information and guidance around what isolation actually meant, and if the borders had actually been closed like Ardern kept insisting black and white that they had been, there would have been plenty of space for people to be quarantined. But she didn't close the borders, we still had people pouring in (we even shifted deadlines around so even more people could do it without isolating!) and that's why there was only enough space for everyone weeks into level 4, when Level 4 said it should have been happening from Day One.
The police were also extremely relaxed about following up people who were supposedly self-isolating, and it basically wasn't being done effectively until Mike Bush was put on the spot about it at a 1pm presser. There are not debatable points just because they highlight the mismatch between what Jacinda likes to say they did vs. what was actually happening.
Rubbish, Soimun and his cost cutting cronies would have cut head counts in all govt departments in order to 'balance the books' there would have been NO advisors in place because they'd have all been disestablished. Most likely he would be pulling his decision making data from...his butt, Boris Johnson or worse inventing it like Trump. This is why you invest in your civil service citizens!
Bluey team/CCP supported media coded messages, with regard to neoliberal ruling elites of safe job keeping task in NZ; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
RE production industries, chin up hard work ahead and very mouth watering commission shall reward awaiting for you. Anticipate to keep up the F.I.RE economy flame, your Bright Glitter Message shall eclipse the Doom Gloom Messenger here. The 12 weeks subsidy, only being used for 6 weeks, but rest assure 6 or 12 weeks? those subsidy were directly aimed to keep the property investors/essential services continual rental payment, loan re-payment. Trust govt., you won't get this type of subsidy under different leadership.
My thoughts.
1. We shut down the borders too late.
2. We therefore had no option but to go to L4.
3. We then got lucky that more cases hadn't crept in, otherwise we would have gone to the unreported L5.
4. We have little to no coherent plan for coming out of L4.
Under National, I suspect we would have followed the UK Trajectory.
1. We wouldn't have shut down the borders.
2. We wouldn't have gone to L4 until too late
3. We would have had a prolonged period in L4.
4. We have little to no coherent plan for coming out of L4.
I think it has been pulled off... just. Overall I think it would have been worse under Nats. But I firmly believe our current result is a case of "better lucky than good" as they say.
Looking at the figures. They correlate closely with the border changes (with a 2-3 week lag). Had we shut the borders earlier (as many suggested) I think we would be in a much stronger position now, and probably could have stayed in L2, rather than entering L4.
Australia had a very light lockdown and their infection rate is lower than ours. In addition recent seroprevalence studies indicate eradication is impossible as we probably have 70 times more infected than we thought. We have therefore destroyed our tourism, hospitality and overseas education sectors for nothing.
Will this total lock down go down in NZ political history as the worst decision since introducing socialism?
People keep saying about all these hidden infected people. But where are they? Why aren’t any of them going to hospital?
Do you honestly believe the US or Sweden will be in better economic shape than us in 3 months time? What has happened in New York will spread to other cities, the lockdown will be far worse once it’s too late. If there is a vaccine before then they may come out OK but that is a hell of a gamble.
Nearly all global research is showing 50% of carriers appear to be asymptomatic. So half of the people with Covid don't have symptoms, let alone need hospital level care. Of the remaining confirmed cases, you can see in our own stats, few are actually admitted to hospital.
But in terms of the larger figures of unreported cases being quoted overseas. They tend to be in large urban areas with a much higher population density (i.e. apartment living), and also more active use of large scale public transport. Neither of which really apply in NZ.
So I don't think we will see the volumes of infection here, but at the same time you would have to expect there to be some asymptomatic carriers out there.
For sure. But 70x?
I think the real facts lie in the hospitalisations and deaths. In our case the 12 deaths implies about 2000 odd cases if the virus death rate is 0.7% is so. That isn’t too far off the known number of cases so I think our testing must be fairly good and accurate. Compare to the US where the supposed death rate is something like 8%, that is simply because they have no idea of the actual number of cases.
Personally 70x does seem ludicrous but that is what the "research" is showing.
I draw two conclusions based on that 70x figure, that the researchers don't seem to have addressed.
1. The severity of the virus is overstated by 70x. i.e. Most people are clearly resistant to it.
2. The infectiousness is significantly worse than measles, or it has been around significantly longer (i.e. years, rather than months)
Research on where though? I’d believe it if you are talking about a country in panic mode like Italy or the US that can’t possibly test enough people to know how many are infected. but I highly doubt we have had 100000 or more with the virus with almost no cases of unexplained transmission.
The research I saw was https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
So USA (Santa Clara to be precise). As mentioned previously I doubt it applies to NZ.
Rather than saying most are resistant, is better to say that some are vulnerable, and fewer are very vulnerable.
Measles is infectious because the virus particles are so small it can be an aerosol and linger in indoor air for hours. COVID 19 isn't, it's spread by droplets only.
It hasn't been around for years. China tested blood donated in Wuhan and found no evidence of it before November.
Yes. I have thought along those lines for a while now. Death rates in western nations with relatively similar health services must be broadly comparable. Ergo, real infection rates must be much higher in countries reporting 14% death rates. The Stanford University antibody test showed an infection rate of 50-80 times than previously detected.
how do you call queenlands lockdown light, have you read it or talked to anyone living there, and theres goes until may 19th
https://www.health.qld.gov.au/system-governance/legislation/cho-public-…
t
and here is the NSW one as well, at least our one was not complicated
https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/_emergency/Public%20Health%20(COVID-…
How sure are you? it could have very easily gone the other way and be a huge disaster to NZ and Australia very quickly. Australia has 6547 infections and 70 deaths, much bigger than NZ. NZ would of had very big infection rate, if NZ had copied Australia
See the facts before making the above statment.
It depends what you define as 'pulls this off'. If the virus is eliminated or present at very low levels by the end of Level 3, then that is a health success. But what will the economic cost be?
I think if unemployment goes any higher than 10% (which is possible), the election could be a very tight run thing.
8% or lower, Labour are home and hosed.
National Leader Simon Bridges says the Government's decision to extend the level 4 lockdown shows it hasn't done the groundwork required to make sure the country is ready for the next step.
He said the decision will "no doubt see a rise in mental health problems and stress related illnesses.
Simon Bridges is OUT OF TOUCH, he should be supporting the Government, this is a dangerous virus that can KILL. He is not fit to be elected. Hopefully the public will see this.
I don't agree with Ximon, but come on get off your high horse - Mental health Kills.
Our suicide rate is generally about 600 per year. That is 12 per week. Significantly more than Covid so far. It has almost definitely risen as a result of L4.
Now I understand a virus is different, I understand Infection rates, Mortality, and exponential growth. So I know the virus has the potential to be much worse. But,
1. Our cases for the most part appear to be of international origin - The level of restriction in place was designed for mass community transmission which based on our testing is not present.
2. Most casualties have significant other medical issues (Co-morbidity) - To be crude, based on UK studies they were probably goners anyway.
3. Most casualties are older - We are not losing 20-40 year old's with young families.
4. Infection rates are based on contact - We simply don't have the density/proximity of most other nations (also why Australia appears to be going well)
The Lockdowns are a very blunt tool, I think we need to evaluate the risks individually rather than at Govt level.
If you are 80, it is probably not wise to catch the train to an Elton John Concert.
If you are 25, it is probably fine to catch the bus to a Six60 concert.
I think (2) has been somewhat proven wrong by New York which has had double its normal number of deaths last month. If they were all going to die of something else anyway I doubt that would occur.
I kind of agree that it is an old person issue and I actually think we have been a bit lacking there (for example I would like to see rest home workers in full lockdown under all levels and paid a good premium by the government for the inconvenience). But unfortunately not many others see it that way and while they are all panicking about COVID the economy would have been going down the toilet over a long period of time. I actually think a two month burst to get the virus numbers down to near 0 will be better for the economy compared to letting it drag on for ages.
Re your first point I think it has compressed the timeline rather than changed it. In the same way you refer to the economic factor in your last sentence.
We are potentially seeing the years worth of deaths in a month or two.
Not great for the families and the hospital is clearly overwhelmed in the short term - but medium/long term the health system may benefit (and maybe the families as well - I lost my Dad to Cancer a few years ago, it would have been a lot more merciful to see him pass in 2 weeks as opposed to 18 months)
I guess we just have to wait and see.
I also strongly agree that more should have been done re the care for the elderly/sick. Had we been more prompt and professional in our approach there, then we could potentially have spared the rest of us a lot of grief.
Simon Bridge is goner so best to ignore him.
He should know that no leader or government in the world came prepare for it or knew what is happening with virus as friends of National party and Simon Bridges in China lied and did not come out with real picture.
So please do not blame or criticize leaders who are trying but if have guts ask your friends like Australian, American and so many other countries are asking.
i dont like SB at all but he is correct on these points
, our contract tracing is not up to scratch and they should have been working on improving it weeks ago when they knew.
PPE supply has been shocking, and i would be guessing but i would say the reason they have not encouraged people to wear masks is they know the supply chain is bad.
and last testing, that should have been expanded to a lot more area testing and GP's by now
and these are the three main things that we need to be up and going to get us back to level two which will save our economy
There's an assumption that they have NOT been working on improving contact tracing capabilities in that time?
That's a completely false assumption. They've been very clearly working to ramp up these capabilities.
But I think everyone is aware that health has been underfunded per capita in the last decade or so. Not sure why Ximon is now effectively ranting that health should have been better funded. Shooting himself and his party in the foot there a bit.
It is not a killer virus at all in NZ
No deaths whatsoever to anyone in Nz that had reasonable health.
All deaths were to elderly frail people with underlying conditions and the people from the rest homes that died were not going to be resuscitated.
Many don’t know they have the virus so it is hardly a killer virus!
Hi Ex Expat, we had a story posted within a few minutes of the announcement being made. Sitting in the press conference, I was giving you the info I was getting as I was hearing it - no time for analysis and critique. Verrall's report and National's response were second on the priority list. Reporting Ardern's comments, sometimes word-for-word, is important as people are making big decisions based on the information she provides and the tone of her comments. Quotes don't equal endorsements.
Expat - that's harsh. Sure, the verbiage was chocka with the usual half-truths, and aimed at folks with a few chips missing on the ol' motherboard. But JT has done a prompt summary, and expanded it later with full text and more speeches. It's sure better than wading through the PR swamp on TV.
Remember to pull back up the F.I.RE economy? NZ need to quickly open the border with China, as their investment will only happen with people movement; tourism, hospitality, student, workers etc.
I doubt if red team can do the trick here, only blue team have direct access to this new overlord funds.
So NZ? stop being sentimental, we all knew 2021 onward is world reckoning towards made in China, but we should steadfast as our undeterred tight bond resolute with them - shall reap benefit reward for all, specially our F.I.RE economy participants to well placed ahead of US UK OZ Canada - We need China more than ever !
https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/04/19/yes-michelle-boag-really-did-say-that/
RNZ's Panel is becoming a sad joke. Who chooses these drongo's?
so funny
We’ve got to remember, this is Covid-19! Presumably there’s been 18 other coronaviruses, on the way to get to 19!” - Michelle Boag, on RNZ
On 11 February the World Health Organization announced that the official name would be covid-19, a shortened version of coronavirus disease 2019. The WHO refers to the specific virus that causes this disease as the covid-19 virus.
Does anyone know what is happening to people on Work Visas who have lost their jobs?
I heard it's a big problem in Queenstown, the council has set up an emergency centre and is helping out.
But these people are not eligible for government hand outs, right?
Presumably they can fly out, but it won't be easy or cheap to secure a flight.
Just checked Air Nz flying to London. Next available seats aren't till mid May. Flights $2600 one way, economy.
"Cabinet follows Director General of Health's recommendation..." The same career shiny bums who told to carry on clubbing in mid March. If only they had got their act together and phoned Taiwan in Jan/Feb - or followed the 2017 pandemic plan.
"Ministry of Health - Manatū Hauora
@minhealthnz
·
Mar 13
With lots of public events coming up this weekend, it’s important to stay home if you feel unwell and not spread your symptoms to healthy people. If you feel well and plan to attend an event, make sure you practise good hand hygiene as often as possible. "
If this respiratory bug had not been named, we would not have noticed it. Total world wide Covid19 deaths are about 10% of annual world wide flu deaths...
We need a new law in NZ. The No Naming of Flu Bugs Act. Save us $14 billion, 100 suicides and about 1,000 bashed partners...
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