New Zealand's population growth from migration fell to a 10 year low for the 12 months to September, excluding the Covid-related travel restriction hit 2021 and 2022 years.
According to Statistics NZ, the 12 months to September saw a net population gain of 44,907, down from 133,271 (-66%) in the 12 months to September last year.
That's the lowest net gain for that period since 2014, apart from the same periods of 2021/22, when there was a net loss of people from migration.
The relatively low net gain of 44,907 in the 12 month to September came from 177,937 people arriving in the country long term, while 133,030 left the country long term.
The 133,030 long term departures is the highest number for the 12 months to September since Statistics NZ began calculating the figures in their current format in 2002. And it's up 35% compared to the 12 months to September last year.
Over the 12 months to September this year 79,688 NZ citizens left long term, while 24,947 arrived back after an extended stay overseas.
That gave a net loss 54,741 NZ citizens over the 12 months to September, or just over 1000 a week.
Conversely, 152,990 citizens of other countries arrived long term over the same period, while 53,342 non-NZ citizens left long term, giving a net gain of 99,648 non-NZ citizens for the 12 months to September.
So in rough terms, there has been a net loss of about 1000 NZ citizens a week and a net gain of about 2000 non-NZ citizens a week over the year to September.
The charts below show the long term, monthly migration trends.
Net long term migration
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83 Comments
Exactly. Lift the retirement age now. Otherwise, we either continue to borrow more heavily at ever higher interest rates (risk reflective) or we tax the living daylights out of the young (or both), simply to cover the aging demographics spiraling cost and keep the countries lights on. I agree, the future doesn't look pretty. Having an economy that's more reliant on housing profits than factory profits won't help pay the bills as they fall due.
We do. Our birth rate is plummeting. Our population is rapidly aging. Who’s going to pay for healthcare and infrastructure. We must be selective with who we are bringing in, if they’re not going to be a net positive NZ citizen then there’s no point letting them in.
At the current settings, they'll have to select who they treat in 10-15 years time given the lack of funding and infrastructure. think of the imminent need for greater theatre time for rotator cuff repairs, hip replacements, knee replacements, increased prevalence of cancer with the ageing demographic. the real question is, how will they approach this imminent and looming need, and will we still enjoy the current level of healthcare in 10 years time as we have done in yesteryear. Look at the lack of GP's for starters, that's just the beginning.
will we still enjoy the current level of healthcare in 10 years time as we have done in yesteryear.
No. The cuts to health that the coalition are making today will flow through in future years. It's typical short-sighted corporate management style thinking. Luxon 101
Over the 12 months to September this year 79,688 NZ citizens left long term, while 24,947 arrived back after an extended stay overseas.
This doesnt benefit NZ as we only get the unproductive dregs back. The ones that arent used to getting by without Govt benefits and welfare, and others who moan about actually having to work hard in Australia. They come back so they can go on benefits or so they can work less hours.
source? all the whingers on the Kiwis Moving To Aussie FB group who complain about Australia and how much better NZ was. The fact we get them back is not a win for NZ.
That’s not correct - we also get the 501s!
There’s actually a lot of succesful kiwis who moved back when they have small kids as they want to be around them more (our shorter working hours and flexible arrangements far more permissive), and want to raise them in a way they themselves were raised. Plus being close to grandparents etc
Who'd want to bring kids back to NZ's sub standard education system? That is one thing that everyone on FB agrees on - the Australian school system is much better, even those that are sending their kids to state schools say that. (In Australia, 41% of kids attend private or independent schools, so going to a public school is only for the povos, yet even with that handicap they still outperform NZ)
I disagree. If 5 hours a day isn't enough to learn what you need in a school year, then something is going wrong at school. After school should be for socialising, play, sport, and self driven creativity and curiosity. Screw homework.
What I think is actually wrong, is the overfocus on constant assessment, too much "English" not enough Maths, Science, Workshop, Cooking, Philosophy, History, CAD, Economics.
Just wait til the Left gets in again for government and brings in their wealth tax. We will witness those who currently pay the most in income taxes leave in droves, plus many people who have small businesses because it will no longer be worthwhile to have a small business when paying income taxes, GST, plus a costly yearly assessment on the entire value of the business. This has already happened in other countries that brought in wealth taxes, as well as in New York and California. But the Left in NZ does not get it.
Don't want to sound like a spruiker, but if I understood the numbers correctly then immigration is still positive if we are getting a net result of 1000 people per week arriving for the long term (2000 arriving - 1000 leaving). More people arriving = more pressure on housing, even if a lot of those arrivals might be students (don't students need to live somewhere too?).
'Burn the Spruiker!'
I am not sorry for looking at the numbers and trying to figure out how they might affect the market. The market could go either way, but more people arriving than leaving theoretically points to more demand for housing. You can burn that all you want.
P.S. I also want house prices to come down. But the market forces don't care about what 'I want'.
The problem is that the people leaving are high skilled. The people incoming are not.
They won't be able to afford expensive housing. Will lower the standard of living and we will subsidize tax payments for their infrastructure and public services.
It's a kind of vicious circle that points us in the direction of a 2nd or 3rd world nation. Which will negatively affect house prices. Thus they are no longer rising nor tipped to do so.
Good point. and if you add in the birth rate is probably less than the death rate - with an aging population - we are probably fairly static population. Which means the 36k per annum building consents, and the 40k code compliances issued means that we have housing for an additional 100,000 people per annum - but a static population.
I think this link might prove the 'static population' rationale wrong https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/population-clock/
Given trump i do not think RBNZ is going to do an emergency 75 bps cut. Unemployment is inside (in fact lower) then projections, they will go 50 bps and see what happens with retail sales over Xmas, they can go 75 in Feb if its really bad.
Not sure what RBNZ thought was neutral before trump, but expect its 50-75bps higher after.
Mike Waltz is going to amp up US forces in the Pacific, bigger and faster Darwin base, likely bigger and faster Aukus.
NZ is not made in USA, BUT they will not go out of there way to hurt us given geopolitical situation.
All being equal if 3.5% OCR was Neutral base then 4.25% is now likely a base camp stopover.
Does it change the youths mind for leaving the country for far greater salaries, career prospects and life opportunities? I'd argue it is a compounding problem, as the more leave NZ for Oz, the more others in NZ hear about the process of moving, and the how to's for getting a life set up so it seems easier and more attractive than before, less barriers to takin the leap. Spoken form experience as I have friends in this boat who weren't intending to leave, but after others moved over they will be off next year across the ditch.
I hear that 'walking' disadvantaged groups through law school (eg.. AUT) is proving successful: upon a female obtaining her law degree she promptly fell pregnant so she can spend the next 18 years on the solo parents benefit. A nicely structured career path......her benefit will always fall under the income threshold for repaying the student loan. And at any stage during that 18 years she can elect to have have more children thus pushing out the 18 years to a longer period, eg having another child at 35 years old will obtain her a benefit until she's 53 years old.
Unintended consequences of another of Labour's 'nice and kind' policies; that is if the Indian population doesn't gain political power beforehand, for then you would see a right-wing government like you've never seen.
I'm genuinely gutted for NZ? Our family left due my abhorrent dislike for the 6th Labour Government. What appears to be transpiring is a repopulation of sorts, likely due to a litany of poor decisions and failed Government interventions (among other factors no doubt). Not to blow out own trumpets but we are both in Healthcare (in demand) and business with an eldest daughter primed for a career in medicine. Australia offers our whole family an abundance of opportunities, both economically and socially. Meanwhile the only news out of NZ is racial disharmony and economic failure. I'd be insane to want to go back.
When my daughter tells me that she has a clear pathway to Medical Schools here versus a quota that prioritizes Maori / Pacifica in NZ, I really don't know what to say!!!!
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