New Zealand's population growth from migration fell to a 10 year low for the 12 months to September, excluding the Covid-related travel restriction hit 2021 and 2022 years.
According to Statistics NZ, the 12 months to September saw a net population gain of 44,907, down from 133,271 (-66%) in the 12 months to September last year.
That's the lowest net gain for that period since 2014, apart from the same periods of 2021/22, when there was a net loss of people from migration.
The relatively low net gain of 44,907 in the 12 month to September came from 177,937 people arriving in the country long term, while 133,030 left the country long term.
The 133,030 long term departures is the highest number for the 12 months to September since Statistics NZ began calculating the figures in their current format in 2002. And it's up 35% compared to the 12 months to September last year.
Over the 12 months to September this year 79,688 NZ citizens left long term, while 24,947 arrived back after an extended stay overseas.
That gave a net loss 54,741 NZ citizens over the 12 months to September, or just over 1000 a week.
Conversely, 152,990 citizens of other countries arrived long term over the same period, while 53,342 non-NZ citizens left long term, giving a net gain of 99,648 non-NZ citizens for the 12 months to September.
So in rough terms, there has been a net loss of about 1000 NZ citizens a week and a net gain of about 2000 non-NZ citizens a week over the year to September.
The charts below show the long term, monthly migration trends.
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Net long term migration
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108 Comments
Estimated net migration to be 0 by feb 2025
We can live in hope, we don't need more people in this country, its time to hang out the "No Vacancy" sign.
Estimated net migration to be 0 by feb 2025
Who's going to snap up all the overpriced inventory from January 25?
Who's going to pay for your NZ super?
Oh-sorry, do you think I'm actually retired? For me, that's another six years away. Outside of Super, we have made more than enough provision.
I actually mean Zwifter (he may be a few years away?), but also you in 6 years time. If we have an ageing population, a fixed NZ super age, and NZ super entitlement fixed to average wage, how can that work?
Exactly. Lift the retirement age now. Otherwise, we either continue to borrow more heavily at ever higher interest rates (risk reflective) or we tax the living daylights out of the young (or both), simply to cover the aging demographics spiraling cost and keep the countries lights on. I agree, the future doesn't look pretty. Having an economy that's more reliant on housing profits than factory profits won't help pay the bills as they fall due.
Underpaid waiters and Uber drivers won't help pay for first-world infrastructure and public services.
You have better chances winning the lottery this Saturday than blindly squeezing tens of thousands of workers into the country each year in the hope that enough of them have the skills and talent to build a prosperous economy.
And then who will pay for their superannuation...
So we need more people (our population has increased rapidly over the past 2 decades) to pay for retirement liabilities? If so, doesn't this mean that we need even more people to fund the people we've just brought in when they retire? Sounds like a pyramid scheme....
We do. Our birth rate is plummeting. Our population is rapidly aging. Who’s going to pay for healthcare and infrastructure. We must be selective with who we are bringing in, if they’re not going to be a net positive NZ citizen then there’s no point letting them in.
More efficient to tackle the problem at its source with Frank's "Logan's Run" strategy.
💯
Government is rubbish, you can't trust bureaucrats. Just let people kill off the oldies. It''s the most economically productive option, isn't that what the coalition are all about?
At the current settings, they'll have to select who they treat in 10-15 years time given the lack of funding and infrastructure. think of the imminent need for greater theatre time for rotator cuff repairs, hip replacements, knee replacements, increased prevalence of cancer with the ageing demographic. the real question is, how will they approach this imminent and looming need, and will we still enjoy the current level of healthcare in 10 years time as we have done in yesteryear. Look at the lack of GP's for starters, that's just the beginning.
will we still enjoy the current level of healthcare in 10 years time as we have done in yesteryear.
No. The cuts to health that the coalition are making today will flow through in future years. It's typical short-sighted corporate management style thinking. Luxon 101
Couldn’t disagree more sorry. My wife works in public health and has been in multiple sectors. The current hiring beuracracy requires ALL hiring to be signed off at near-executive level which stifles getting anything through to the point many are working snd getting paid with their contracts having expired but they cant afford them to stop working so the payroll keeps going until HR catches up. Since the pay negotiations came through the trend is for many nurses wanting to drop their FTE as they have the pay now to afford the extra free time with no loss in salary, adding to HR demand and the above scenario. It doesnt matter what they say is being cut, as the resource demand, be it drugs, staff, specialists, is in the rise and will continue to do so as the next decade goes on. Resources cost money
"At the current settings, they'll have to select who they treat in 10-15 years time given the lack of funding and infrastructure"
That triage has been in play for years....it will however increase and become even more selective.
Not a good trade, especially when we're swapping out freshly trained nurses for Bunnings staff.
We are importing a lot of Filipino nurses to wipe boomers bums, whilst at same time cramming them into said boomers decrepit “investment properties”
horrible but probably accurate summary
Might hear more stories of elder abuse in rest homes?
Why? Filipinos are definitely good at caring for people
Think Elton John wrote a song about that ... 'The Circle of Life'.
What a crude comment.
Filipino nurses are actually outstanding there’s no harm importing as many as possible.
Filipino nurses are actually outstanding
Agree and the person you replied to made no mention that they weren't.
there’s no harm importing as many as possible
Disagree, there is harm because it stops us making the necessary changes in order to be sustainable and take care of our own. Those changes include pay that reflects the demand for the work to be done (immigrants will work for less, even pay to get the job Immigration adviser on tape offering job for $70k | RNZ News). As someone else rightly points out, then what when they get old? What when there are no nurses left in the Philippines to import? Then there's the problems caused with a growing population on housing affordability and other indirect costs.
What happened to the Indian nurses? Too expensive or not prepared to wipe boomers bums?
No important to the discussion
Some of those Filipino nurses are hot. 'Circle of life' is appropriate, if the old timer can get his gun harden up and shot a few rounds.
March-August - Net Migration of 12,000 so 24,000 annualised. Much more sustainable net-immigration path...
Going to Ikea stores in Brisbane (Logan or Northlake), one would think you are in NZ from the number of people with Ta Moko on their arms or All Blacks shirts!
Over the 12 months to September this year 79,688 NZ citizens left long term, while 24,947 arrived back after an extended stay overseas.
This doesnt benefit NZ as we only get the unproductive dregs back. The ones that arent used to getting by without Govt benefits and welfare, and others who moan about actually having to work hard in Australia. They come back so they can go on benefits or so they can work less hours.
source? all the whingers on the Kiwis Moving To Aussie FB group who complain about Australia and how much better NZ was. The fact we get them back is not a win for NZ.
That’s not correct - we also get the 501s!
There’s actually a lot of succesful kiwis who moved back when they have small kids as they want to be around them more (our shorter working hours and flexible arrangements far more permissive), and want to raise them in a way they themselves were raised. Plus being close to grandparents etc
Who'd want to bring kids back to NZ's sub standard education system? That is one thing that everyone on FB agrees on - the Australian school system is much better, even those that are sending their kids to state schools say that. (In Australia, 41% of kids attend private or independent schools, so going to a public school is only for the povos, yet even with that handicap they still outperform NZ)
The main thing I think is wrong with the NZ education system is not requiring homework. Does not matter how good the curriculum is if the kids aren't putting the work in.
I disagree. If 5 hours a day isn't enough to learn what you need in a school year, then something is going wrong at school. After school should be for socialising, play, sport, and self driven creativity and curiosity. Screw homework.
What I think is actually wrong, is the overfocus on constant assessment, too much "English" not enough Maths, Science, Workshop, Cooking, Philosophy, History, CAD, Economics.
The kids at the local state primary school spend 3 afternoons a week doing Kapa Haka. There isnt much time left to learn Maths and English.
Keep up the racist posts KH...
Where’s the racism?
You need to read all his posts...its a common thread that he hates anyone brown
I think thats just your imagination. Like most left wingers you think that anyone commenting on anything Maori must be a racist. Some of us are just stating facts. How you interpret that says more about you than me.
There's nothing racist about questioning the education curriculum value added. Except ad hominem abuse in your own mind.
Backed up by another one
Our education system went woke years ago, we are now paying the price.
National came up with NCEA and National Standards didn't they?
That's a reasonable position that I believe has unfortunately led to many students struggling academically as they are ill prepared for the workload in highschool, having never been required to study at home in primary or intermediate.
Some of the more enlightened recognize that the real educators are the parents so aren't so worried about the schools.
Just wait til the Left gets in again for government and brings in their wealth tax. We will witness those who currently pay the most in income taxes leave in droves, plus many people who have small businesses because it will no longer be worthwhile to have a small business when paying income taxes, GST, plus a costly yearly assessment on the entire value of the business. This has already happened in other countries that brought in wealth taxes, as well as in New York and California. But the Left in NZ does not get it.
So with that logic we should have people flocking back as the right are doing such an amazing job....right -- back on track?
Nah. We will get CGT like the rest of the oecd. It's lilong overdue and would only benefit our economy.
Don't disagree entirely on that provided its on realised CG for all types of investment.
You do realise that more people have been leaving since the right were elected?
Yes, because its going to take years (if never) to fix the mess that Labour created.
Which mess is that? National have already overturned most of what Labour did, regardless of how good it was.
Lol..you live in a gated lah lah land KH
Like all those rich people who have left their countries and moved to NZ because we don't have CGT.
New York and California are states, not countries. I expect it is a whole lot easier to move across state lines than to another country.
I'm not saying that people won't leave NZ but comparing Californians moving to Arizona or Nevada with Kiwis moving to Australia is a bit of a stretch.
Clearly NZ is increasingly becoming a short-term destination.
Most new arrivals are students.
Most leaving are potential FHB’s.
Result - housing market to continue its noise dive.
On top of this, you have BBs now retiring - downsizing - selling up. Plus for every Auckland house you can put 4 to 6 (Unitary plan).
I smell an over supply of over valued homes....so does someone else - your boss, hence selling up their rentals.
And to rub salt into the wound, NZ will never, ever, be wealthy. Because you have two warring parties against each other. (eg today over harbour bridge). Both have legitimate arguments, both will fight to stop the other from moving ahead, the country and its people will suffer, remain poor and backward.
Just saying.
I have total faith that the Spruikers on here will step in, buy heaps themselves, and hold the market up.....
They do seem to be timing their run late though.
Yes come on Spruikers.. house prices always double every 10 year. Buy now
According to a spruiker, it can go double or even triple if you buy in some swampy land, near the river, north-west of Auckland.
Thanks for the hot tip
Don't want to sound like a spruiker, but if I understood the numbers correctly then immigration is still positive if we are getting a net result of 1000 people per week arriving for the long term (2000 arriving - 1000 leaving). More people arriving = more pressure on housing, even if a lot of those arrivals might be students (don't students need to live somewhere too?).
Burn the Spruiker!
'Burn the Spruiker!'
I am not sorry for looking at the numbers and trying to figure out how they might affect the market. The market could go either way, but more people arriving than leaving theoretically points to more demand for housing. You can burn that all you want.
P.S. I also want house prices to come down. But the market forces don't care about what 'I want'.
The problem is that the people leaving are high skilled. The people incoming are not.
They won't be able to afford expensive housing. Will lower the standard of living and we will subsidize tax payments for their infrastructure and public services.
It's a kind of vicious circle that points us in the direction of a 2nd or 3rd world nation. Which will negatively affect house prices. Thus they are no longer rising nor tipped to do so.
"the people leaving are high skilled" - are you sure about that? Some will be, but many people I know that have gone to Aus did so to work as a labourer in a mine (not unskilled but not high skilled).
How many people do you actually personally know have gone to be a labourer in a mine in Australia?
4 person households being replaced by 8 person households. It's a push.
The overall population is always growing, at different speeds of course depending on immigration etc. But that growth will only put pressure on housing if new housing construction can't keep up. So a low net gain of people won't pressure housing.
Good point. and if you add in the birth rate is probably less than the death rate - with an aging population - we are probably fairly static population. Which means the 36k per annum building consents, and the 40k code compliances issued means that we have housing for an additional 100,000 people per annum - but a static population.
I think this link might prove the 'static population' rationale wrong https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/population-clock/
Not just FHB, 5000 of them were families who would have otherwise had a baby in NZ. Thats the number of babies "gone missing" in the year March 23-March 24 (a 14% reduction in births from the prior year)
0.75 interest cut seems to be the answer to all the topics today :)
Only posted by you.
@averageman - no i would say by many home owners / business owners generally every bar you. You know why ?
Given trump i do not think RBNZ is going to do an emergency 75 bps cut. Unemployment is inside (in fact lower) then projections, they will go 50 bps and see what happens with retail sales over Xmas, they can go 75 in Feb if its really bad.
Not sure what RBNZ thought was neutral before trump, but expect its 50-75bps higher after.
Mike Waltz is going to amp up US forces in the Pacific, bigger and faster Darwin base, likely bigger and faster Aukus.
NZ is not made in USA, BUT they will not go out of there way to hurt us given geopolitical situation.
All being equal if 3.5% OCR was Neutral base then 4.25% is now likely a base camp stopover.
I think it will be up to the DT, the new boss. From now on, it's nothing to do with RBNZ
Yeah. Cut the rate by 1% why not.. Increase the house prices. We all will feel rich and be happy once again.
Does it change the youths mind for leaving the country for far greater salaries, career prospects and life opportunities? I'd argue it is a compounding problem, as the more leave NZ for Oz, the more others in NZ hear about the process of moving, and the how to's for getting a life set up so it seems easier and more attractive than before, less barriers to takin the leap. Spoken form experience as I have friends in this boat who weren't intending to leave, but after others moved over they will be off next year across the ditch.
Also now that there are no restrictions on who can get citizenship, many people are taking their parents with them. Three generations are shifting over, so there is nothing for them to come back to.
Yep, a mate of mine has had permanent residency here for years, never wanted ti go for cotizenship here thinking meh whats the advantage? Well well, since deciding to move to oz next year has applied for citizenship as why not? 4 years in oz and you get an ozzy passport too! That’s opportunities right there
4 Years?
It is 5 years for Australians to qualify for NZ citizenship.
Lucky 🍀 Kiwis :)
Plenty of low skilled Indians we can import in.
Friends of our managed to bring in 7 family members over to work in their petrol station.
Where the workers are from isn't relevant in any way to me, but adding 7 people to NZ for that form of job is ridiculous.
What happened to the 500,000 Kiwi's that were coming back to buy property due to the Covid pandemic? That One Roof narrative has gone out the door really quickly hasn't it...
What happened to the 10 million voters that just did not vote for Harris (But voted for Biden?)...
Perhaps they where both but a number on a spreadsheet
I hear that 'walking' disadvantaged groups through law school (eg.. AUT) is proving successful: upon a female obtaining her law degree she promptly fell pregnant so she can spend the next 18 years on the solo parents benefit. A nicely structured career path......her benefit will always fall under the income threshold for repaying the student loan. And at any stage during that 18 years she can elect to have have more children thus pushing out the 18 years to a longer period, eg having another child at 35 years old will obtain her a benefit until she's 53 years old.
Unintended consequences of another of Labour's 'nice and kind' policies; that is if the Indian population doesn't gain political power beforehand, for then you would see a right-wing government like you've never seen.
You might like to get your facts straight if you are going to benefit bash in public. A single parent is only eligible for sole parent support until their youngest is 3 years old, then they are expected to work 20 hours pw. Before youngest is 3 they are expected to get "work ready". After their youngest turns 14 they are treated the same as any person on a job seekers benefit. Probably not quite the gravy train you think it is; especially when you consider alongside the required work hours they are also parenting alone. The hardest & most important work a person can do is be a parent - multifold a single parent. Add to this if the father was to gain 50/50 care of the child (probable if he went to court and asked for it) he would be equally entitled to the benefit as the mother but only 1 parent could get the benefit - so she may not even get any benefit but still be parenting alone. Pretty sure nothing got any "kinder" at WINZ in the last labour reign. I know of someone who desperately needed help & was legally entitled to it but was declined because they were self employed; this was only the case until the last labour government. Go figure.
Agreed. If someone has a law degree why would they wish to be on a benefit wen their earning potential far surpasses it by magnitudes ands would provide a much better life for her and her kids. Add in the opportunities for WFH flexibility and there's no real incentive to be on the benefit long term.
The reality remains the same, we’ll end up with more renters coming in, alongside those who can afford to buy.
For many who leave, returning may mean losing their chance to ever own a home here again.
Kev, most are leaving because of the property cost here. They have nil intention to return or if they do, it's with a bag of money from being paid better abroad.
I am off today for a 5 day look-around, then my partner and I leave permanently on the 27th of December.
Who will power all our camp bells after that?
The other 66
Best wishes for your future. Can I ask where are you going to?
That’s great news for property investors. More people ineligible to buy a house therefore renting and pushing up rents.
All parties in government should be held to account for this treason!
I'm genuinely gutted for NZ? Our family left due my abhorrent dislike for the 6th Labour Government. What appears to be transpiring is a repopulation of sorts, likely due to a litany of poor decisions and failed Government interventions (among other factors no doubt). Not to blow out own trumpets but we are both in Healthcare (in demand) and business with an eldest daughter primed for a career in medicine. Australia offers our whole family an abundance of opportunities, both economically and socially. Meanwhile the only news out of NZ is racial disharmony and economic failure. I'd be insane to want to go back.
When my daughter tells me that she has a clear pathway to Medical Schools here versus a quota that prioritizes Maori / Pacifica in NZ, I really don't know what to say!!!!
Interesting that you like Spain because it is a left-wing country and is way more aligned to the socialist Labour Party values. You're benefitting from the all the social investment made by previous generation of Spaniards. Shame that you would oppose it in your own country.
😂. Yesssssssssss.
Yet here you are.
Im mid 20s and flat. I've lived with 13 people collectively over 5 years of flatting, all young professionals. 5 of 13 now live abroad with another leaving NZ in Feb. All kiwi raised.
Me and my partner are off in 2 weeks for good too. So that's 8 total out of 15.
A fair chunk of young kiwis staying are not the ones producing much
That’s great but you aren’t a special case sunshine. I did the same and almost everyone I knew did as well at 21. But we all retuned in our mid to late 30s when family time arrived. Most of your acquaintances will do exactly the same.
Why do you think that? NZ isn't the same as it was in your time, you're nothing special cupcake. Keep giving yourself that copium though lol.
Instead of being a condescending prick online, you should talk to young people, many have a strong intention of never returning to live here, it's not the same as your story.
Could you give some of the reasons why you're leaving? Genuinely interested.
It would be valuable to know of those immigrants, who actually have a path to residency.
I know of a few families that ( unless rules change ) have to return home to South Africa, Brazil etc as they dont have a path to residency.
Since when did we turn into a country of moaners? Whatever happened to national pride and identity? Australia has just as many problems. You can't run away from yourself. Take a look around and realise NZ is still a beautiful country.
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