New Zealand's estimated population growth from migration declined for the fifth consecutive month in January.
Statistics NZ estimates NZ had a net population gain from migration of 5259 people in January. That figure has consistently declined since August last year, when there was an estimated net gain of 13,876 for the month.
January's net gain of 5259 came came from 21,188 people who came to this country long term during the month, including 3421 NZ citizens who returned after an extended absence, less 15,929 people who left long term, including 8771 NZ citizens.
That left NZ with a net loss of 5350 NZ citizens for the month, and a net gain of 10,911 citizens of other countries.
On an annual basis there was a net gain of 133,835 people over the 12 months to January this year, which came from 257,159 long term arrivals, less 123,324 long term departures.
There was a net loss 46,862 NZ citizens over the 12 months to January and a net gain of 180,697 citizens from other countries.
So on average, there was a was net population gain of 2573 people a week due to migration, over the 12 months to the end of January.
However Statistics NZ's migration estimates should be treated with caution, because they take 16 months to be finalised and are subject to revision. Revisions of the latest figures may be significant.
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77 Comments
A People ponzi
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/03/new-zealand-s-net-mi…
"Stats NZ said the majority of immigration was by citizens of India, with a 51,000 arrival increase in the year to January."
Indeed
I can confirm from a recent trip to Cromwell it has 51,000 new residents
I stopped by Waikato University for a meeting the other day and it seemed like 2 out every 3 students walking around was Indian.
At our last census there were around 750,000 Maori so we're losing our representation pretty damn quickly.
Great, the sooner NZ is ONE multi-cultural country with equal rules for all, the better !
You're not losing your Maori representation because you don't need to be 100% Maori to be considered Maori according to the statistics. So as long as there's a little cross fertilisation there you maintain or even increase representation. On paper at least.
I always wondered why, if people have even just 10% Maori blood, they consider themselves Maori, and they disregard the other 90% of their ethnicity ?
The Scots are the same. It is romantic wearing kilts and having a dagger in your sock and getting drunk thinking about sad history of the last Scottish pretender: Bonny Prince Charlie born in Italy, to an English father and a Polish mother.
Last time I checked the vast majority of people in NZ were caucasian.
Depends on where you are checking. Visit my grandson's pre-school or my granddaughter's primary school. They are the future not my 99% caucasian U3A group.
How do you know they were Indian?
Went to the ASB Royal Oak yesterday........all staff except the Manageress are Indian.
Went to Bunnings Mt Roskill yesterday.......most staff were Indian. (This is a very recent development.)
Recently visited a patient at Auckland City Hospital .......the majority of nurses and nurse aids seemed to be Indian.
Recently visited a patient at Middlemore Hospital...........same as above.
Only recently one of Indian Prime Minister Modi's ministers was reported as saying that New Zealand will not secure a free-trade agreement with India unless all Indians are given full unfettered access to live in New Zealand. And there's no doubt that Modi is an out-and-out Hindu nationalist masquerading as a democrat.
I predict that within the next few decades New Zealand will become a de facto colony of India. Towards this end, the New Zealand National Party will become dominated by Indian politicians who will open the door to an immigration flood from India.
New Zealand Maori and Pacifica activists should be very careful what they wish for, including their desire for the disappearance of the 'pale, stale, males' that currently are held to occupy the positions of power.
This opinion is from my rational brain; on the other hand I get on very well at the personal level with my increasing number of Indian neighbours.
If we end up with a good national cricket team then great.
No need to fear Modi - just declare NZ as a muslim state and he will leave us alone.
Where are all the eco warriors? This is basically just giving over-populated nations a release valve so they can continue multiplying.
The eco warriors are at a hui with the Maori Party - both blinkered to the negative affects all this migration has on their core supporters and issues.
Also, they're not in charge. It's NACT who are now running super high volume immigration.
There are more immigrants wanting to bring their second cousins to NZ than "ecowarriors", so don't expect change before the resource/environmental collapse. After that, the real influx will begin!
The best way to reduce over-population are:
1. Empower women with rights and educations.
2. Drop religious influences that force women into bearing children.
Cool but we don't have an over-population problem other than via immigration. So these points are best emailed to someone in India.
We're the cure for Indias over population problem.
Let me do some math for you.
Population of India - 1,437,768,424. Number moved to New Zealand - 51000. So it's ~0.0035%
I don't think we are the cure.
Where are all the eco warriors?
Wondering how to balance saving the planet with the additional woke items on the agenda.
By the time, they have it worked out, people will have dug their own underground bunkers to escape from the heat.
Yeah, cool. But I don't think a handful of ecowarriors are the big problem here, do you?
Well.. at least they want to work.
Keep up the good work INZ (sarc)
The SHTF in 10, 9, 8....
Already here.
Council Rates up 25%, infrastructure buckling, exodus of skilled kiwis vs influx if unskilled immigrants and families.. blatant national/act/NF policies to please donors and their own interests instead of anything to help nz in the long term .. morals are gone.
Luxon has no ability to read the room and is visibly helping the top 5% by wealth at the expense of everyone else.
I predict confidently predict by the next election the economy will be far worse for the 95% there will be a backlash by the low mid class.. who will vote for massive change.. labour will win by a landslide and Maori will take a front seat in future decision making.... I actually liked their point those week about nats giving $2b to landlords whilst removing far cheaper skool dinners for kids... and threatening to hammer the landlords if they get back in power.
It's gonna be messy for the top 5%..
rent alert, more people coming!
Who knew that slapping up takeaways, petrol station coffees and vapes in increasing quantities made for such a great economy and society?
On a more serious note, who do you even vote for if you're opposed to this as all the major parties (and minor ones) seem to be in agreement that this is a good course of action, at least if their track records are anything to go by.
No one. Give up (at least for foreseeable future)
Although I said I was serious, I was really being facetious with my second paragraph.
Maybe TOP 3.0 (4.0 - what version are we up to now?) could focus on taming immigration as its key policy. I reckon that could be a 5% winner. I'd probably go for it just one on the basis of being fed up with tacky vape stores on every corner.
The original TOP had an excellent population policy that got dropped when in version 2.0.
You'd think there would be a market for an Affordable Housing party that had a core policy of limiting population growth to the capacity of the construction industry and availability of housing.
How to see a change of culture: drive out native people and import 4 times as many from non native origin
Its my kids i feel sorry for. Born into a European based culture who were largely sympathetic to Maori issues. Now their homeland is being overtaken by foreign cultures in such large numbers that the kiwi culture is evaporating before their eyes.
I'm sure without the influx Kiwis would have got along quite well and land issues etc resolved to satisfaction of Maori. The new arrivals are overwhelming us all....and so we start to fight with each other.
How can a binding National identity exist with such separate cultures and beliefs forced together?
.
Speaking of kids, there's another aspect to this madness that is very frustrating - it seems to be robbing our young people of the chance to build employment history and skills.
When I was a teenager/uni student, it was a rite of passage to have some part time weekend/early mornings/evening job at a supermarket, pizza shop/fast food outlet or even a retailer.
If I think about the supermarket where I used to work, there was basically a cadre of full time "lifers" and then the entire rest of the staff were high school/uni students doing a few hours here and there (e.g. I would work Thursday evenings, Saturday mornings and then sometimes Monday mornings once I finished school and had a more flexible uni schedule).
Yes I'd sometimes show up hungover, or slack off on the job, or call in sick (in fact I recall doing so the morning after first going out on a date with my now wife ... strange how life goes) but I look back fondly on the skills I developed interfacing with customers, dealing with complaints, working to a schedule and basically learning how to be a decent worker.
I did some shopping at the same supermarket last night. Every single worker in my old department, and just about all of the workers in the other departments, was clearly an immigrant - my understanding is that in some cultures particularly once one gets a position with hiring authority they just hire friends/family/fellow compatriots.
Why are we importing people to do this kind of work when it was being done fine by uni students and high schoolers, who would then move on to better things with some experience under their belts, ready for the next generation to do the same?
" Every single worker in my old department, and just about all of the workers in the other departments, was clearly an immigrant "
Yes
Ive been pondering the same thing
Are there any younger NZer's employed casually at all in takeaways / cafes / receptions / supermarkets / retail ...
Or is it all now permanent immigrants
Are young Kiwi's prepared to pay $20,000 for getting the job, or hand back half or more of their minimum wage in cash to their employer under the table or paid into an overseas bank account? No? There, that should answer your question.
In soviet New Zealand, employee pays you!
I think this is a bigger brewing issue than many want to admit and will have further deleterious effects down the line . That whole transition period of starting to work (while in senior year at high school or at uni) teaches you so many valuable skills, assists in networking/forming connections, gives you money to spend without needing to go into debt ... it's just good for you even if it's only a few hours on a Saturday morning or something.
But if you're some multi millionaire supermarket owner why hire the local high schooler when you can hire somebody from overseas for whom no matter how much you overwork them or underpay them it's still preferable to where they come from, so they will likely work like a trojan.
Edit: To KW's point above, this is before you even consider the aspect of many jobs clearly involving under the table payments back to employers to secure visa rights etc.
I don't know where you're based, but judging from my own kid's experiences there is no shortage of part-time work available (in Wellington). They both found multiple part time jobs almost without trying.
My Kiwi born daughter works at a restaurant café, so there is at least one in NZ.
Recently there have been more non-Asian staff at our local supermarkets (Auckland North Shore) with many looking school age. However the supervisors are usually Indian or Filipino. Maybe just a local feature; certainly five years ago most were female Indians who seemed to be in their thirties. I ought to have asked them but these days you can get into trouble asking 'where are you from' despite it being a standard query in East Anglia when I was a kid otherwise we would not have been able to distinquish the yellow-bellies from fen tigers from Norfolk dumplings. The Indian supermarket staff were and still are very efficient and pleasant to deal with.
You are confusing importing a whole array of modern day servants to the middle class (service workers, uber drivers, fruit pickers) as being harmful to the middle class. I mean.. maybe true in the long run but it’s also allowing the NZ upper/middle class to live a lifestyle more opulent than we deserve.
Migration gain? All the whining commenters here threatening to move to the western mining desert island obviously either sneaked out under the radar, or failed to shift the dial on anything but the whinometer.
You understand net movement? We could have 5m leave, but if 5.01m come in, we have a net gain.
There was a net loss 46,862 NZ citizens over the 12 months to January and a net gain of 180,697 citizens from other countries.
We exported Whanganui and imported Hamilton.
3,270,147 left, 3,411,900 arrived. March 1 2023 -> Feb 29 2024.
That's a LOT of movement, though includes travel.
Cool. You do understand sarcasm? So why are the whiners still here? Obviously there's more than enough people out there to take their place many times over in this awful country.
Did you read this bit of the article? "That left NZ with a net loss of 5350 NZ citizens for the month.."
Takes 5 years to become a citizen, if not born here, doesn't it? Unless you are Peter Thiel, that is.
Yes but if you extrapolate the data this would indicate that in ~80 years, NZ will be nothing more than a transitory population.
Absurd argument, sure, I expect we may see a boom in citizens in ~3 years as the fast track resi scheme rolls through.
74,200 New Zealanders left. Thats a whole lot of doctors, nurses, teachers, police officers, tradies, and everyone else who was previously productively employed in NZ. Sadly, we don't seem able to export the increasing number of beneficiaries, gang members, or shoplifting Green party MPs.
So you have a list of the people that left?
So you have a list of all the whiners and their whereabouts?
I suspect there may be a few in the thread above, but unlike many "Interest" commenters, I don't keep a record to throw back in peoples faces a year, or two, down the track. :-)
Some folk also insist hard done by landlords have been leaving the market yet the number of rentals only goes up, so at least in this case we have data supporting the idea of Kiwis leaving the market.
not only that but when a rental house investor sells their rental house it disappears completely according to RW politicians and lobbyists
not many are finding buyers.......
So on average, there was a was net population gain of 2573 people a week due to migration...
Say four to a house, that is 650 houses a week... little wonder we cannot get ahead of our housing crisis.
At least we have in place all the essential services and health care facilities to accommodate all these new migrants...
If the net gain was of high flying skilled workers then 2 to a house would be about right (those with children roughly balancing those who arrived single). So I'd make that 1,300 houses a week ... little wonder we cannot get ahead of our housing crisis.
If they are not high-flying super-skilled workers then INZ has failed and our govt is lying.
My town can't even get a new doctor and I have been on a waiting list for two years in order to sign up to a medical practice in the town I moved to as they aren't accepting new people until they get a new doctor. My old town didn't even have a doctor and was relying on NPs to fill the gap.
Did they bring the extra 50,000 houses needed to house them, with them. We do still have a housing crisis and many people living in motels due to a supposed lack of houses, costing taxpayers heaps
don't worry national are going to empty those motels so problem solved, you might not be able to find a carpark overnight though.
134,000 net migration gain...and house prices are expected to decline.....
I don't think so folks.
On the other hand, I wonder if any 'analysts' are curious why so many kiwis left over the last few years?
I worked at supermarkets after my Uni in Palmy (late 2000’s). Most of the non-Asian people in my team were either hungover or high, most days. Manager at the time was fed up and decided to hire Asian people who could pull through 60 hrs, be flexible with start and finish.
It is all about perspective.
Business usually make rational economic decisions.
I am an Indian immigrant who was fortunate enough to be accepted by this country, to which I will always be grateful. I came here on a partner visa (Mrs. was a PhD student), and I had international experience in a niche banking role. Over the course of 15 years, I progressed from an analyst role to people leader, earning a 200% rise in annual pay. I can say this with confidence that I play a meaningful role in New Zealanders' financial progress and have made a positive contribution to the society as a tax and rate payer with occasional social services and donations. I notice some commenters discussing how immigrants are taking low-wage positions at supermarkets and restaurants, but no one mentions the daily challenges of small business owners (not only dairies) in finding a reliable operator for their operation. I understand that immigrants are highly visible in public areas and supermarkets, but no one will inform these commenters that there are many immigrants working in a banks' backoffices in technical roles to keep the system functioning. The real challenge is with finding highly skilled reliable workers to keep this country running and retaining them. Heck, we couldn't find a knowledge worker in New Zealand for two months, so we had to hire someone from Africa. I recognise that Kiwis are witnessing a changing society, which is not a new phenomenon; it stretches back to the time when modern humans left Africa and potentially expedited by inception of colonialism in Europe. Instead of protesting from a racial aspect, I believe we should completely embrace the benefits and challenges of globalisation while simultaneously asking the proper questions if we are getting the right mix of immigrants, which should be skewed towards high skill holders who could contribute to the nation building.
Thank you for providing a real and positive contribution to NZ and this thread. I’m glad you’re here! Variety is the spice of life, and the more differing views and backgrounds we get, the more we can grow as individuals and challenge our own preconceptions and lens of different issues.
""proper questions if we are getting the right mix of immigrants, which should be skewed towards high skill holders "". Exactly right. I'd add some idea of population planning - without knowing whether the population is growing or shrinking how can a govt decide what to spend on infrastructure and training new teachers, doctors, etc.
I arrived 20 years ago (from the UK) and I was a skilled computer professional and I've paid roughly what I've taken out of the NZ treasury. Happy as I am to be here with the loyalty to NZ that only an immigrant can have I still wonder whether on balance I was needed. NZ only needed my IT skills because the numerous NZ IT professionals I've met were working overseas. With hindsight they should have charged me or my employer for my right to residency and then used that income to train Kiwis and subsidize their housing. I brought my pounds to NZ and bought a pleasant house at a reasonable price (2003) but surely that slightly nudged the going price up which in turn drove more Kiwis to leave.
Would you like NZ's population to continue to grow (our growth is largely due to immigration)? If so, to how many? 10m 20m
You say you are fortunate to be here which implies a personal benefit. Why do you consider yourselves fortunate compared to if you had stayed in India?
In case you are not aware, we have a severe aging problem and a simple google search will tell you that NZ fertility rate has halved over 5 decades, which is directionally aligned with the global trend but the trend is steeper for NZ. Over a quarter of NZ population is made up of immigrants. Rate of immigration is not dominant enough to offset aging and long term departures, meaning population growth is stagnant at flatish positive level. So do yourself some favor and instead of embarrassing yourself in public, get some stats on NZ population and understand macro challenges.
Your other question is subjective which is not debatable, as you and I won't agree on views. I have my own reasons for being here and don't feel obligated to share here.
""Migration drives New Zealand’s largest ever population increase to 5,305,600"" headline in NZ Herald last month.
From 1991 the population has grown from 3.4m to over 5m. So immigration may be a solution to the non-problem of a declining population but is too high to achieve a stable population. If it is deliberate policy to increase NZ population rapidly then the road, houses, schools, hospitals need building.
You and I are both immigrants. I'm guessing we both prefer NZ to alternatives. Still it bugs me to see NZ going backwards and not caring about the skill set and education of arrivals.
Check out the median age of the population which will look much worse without immigrants.
You're starting out with the assumption (an incorrect one in my view) that a median age of say '30' is better than say '40'. This is subjective.
For example, if everyone died around 30 then we'd have your low median age alright, but I wouldn't consider that better as I'd like to see my children grow up!
I agree that the median age is lower due to immigration, however, that stat being true doesn't automatically mean a lower median age is good or bad.
Do all these young immigrants that are lowering our median age stay young forever?
If not, what will your plan be to keep the median age low (an apparent objective of yours)?
Grow out population at a faster and faster rate to keep the median age from rising forever?
Disagree. Nothing wrong with a reducing population, means a larger piece of NZ for everyone and likely higher GDP per capita (perhaps total GDP will fall but then the real exports that pay our for our imports will still be producible with a fraction of the people we have today). Heck, we might be able to reduce the pressure on the land (environment) too. People are still having children and they'd have time to care for the elderly because they won't have to spend their life working to pay for high land prices. I know the same stats, I just interpret them differently to you. I know what NZ was like with under 3 million people but feel free to enlighten me with what the macro challenges are you refer to.
Both my questions were subjective, but I understand if you don't want to share details. Many migrants actually see a link between what made NZ a great place to come to and the population being low. Clearly you have personally benefited from coming here which is something research has backed up (on average). What research hasn't backed up is if the people already here (wider population, not those doing the importing) have benefited (on average). We're all immigrants to this country (or our ancestors were) so don't take it personally but I'm saying importing more people will not solve the macro challenges, whatever you consider them to be, it will mean less resources per person here.
"I believe we should completely embrace the benefits and challenges of globalisation..." ... "Nation building" ...
LOL - that ship has well and truely sailed
The world is seriously overpopulated. Including NZ .Yes - Including NZ
When supply chains hit the skids in the coming years you will see what I mean.
ABSURD
Immigration NZ are out of control, and I suspect fairly incompetent.
For example, our 67 years old neighbour managed to get a partner residency visa for his 35 year old foreign girlfriend despite not technically living together for the required 12 months. He worked in the US and she stayed with him there for six months on a US tourist visa, then he parked her here for nine months on a NZ tourist visa whilst he continued to work in the US. Following that she was granted a NZ citizen's partner permanent residence visa, presumably because Immigration NZ thought they had lived together for at least 12 months. If they were of similar age and in a natural relationship, then maybe let some of the criteria slip a bit but this case suggests that Immigration NZ are pretty loose with the application of their own rules.
Don't suspect it. INZ are dire; their bureaucracy approaches evil. Anyone competant and with a kind heart would feel so out of place they would leave. I'm not being xenophobic about seeing brown faces at my supermarket - my certainty of their incompatance relates to delays in issuing simple tourist visas. To give the details would require a long comment and an asbestos keyboard and plenty of tranquilisers. My son-in-law was unable to attend the birth of his kiwi daughter! A good Kiwi friend had his frail mother-in-law undergo a medical twice because of delays in processing her tourist visa - she was coming to NZ for a cataract operation (paid for by my friend) - unnecessarily delayed for well over 6 months. INZ's incompetance is only exceeded by their heartlessness.
Islands can be paradise when all have happy lives. When it's not it can be a backdoor of state-sponsored espionage. Watch out next couple of years when our politicians harness this to this beautiful land. I guess systematically exploiting of the tax system in whole over the world is a new trend of earning money in the name of democracy. End of the day it's innocent civilians of the country that suffers except everyone wins. Bottomline is as a government if you cannot protect your own civilians from exploitation then the system is failing and we better redesign/redefine the definition of democracy for betterment of everyone.
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