Stephen Toplis
Balancing the budget without tax increases or austerity measures may require a Christmas miracle
18th Dec 24, 7:38am
131
Balancing the budget without tax increases or austerity measures may require a Christmas miracle
Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
1st Oct 24, 3:31pm
67
Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
[updated]
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
30th Sep 24, 1:25pm
72
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
Economists call for faster rate cuts as the recent slowdown in economic activity outpaces the 2008 recession
20th Sep 24, 6:00am
177
Economists call for faster rate cuts as the recent slowdown in economic activity outpaces the 2008 recession
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says it will take till 2029 for per capita GDP to return to previous levels
19th Aug 24, 2:36pm
75
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says it will take till 2029 for per capita GDP to return to previous levels
Reserve Bank’s early rate cut ends three years of tightening, signalling a major policy shift amid worsening economic conditions
15th Aug 24, 7:41am
38
Reserve Bank’s early rate cut ends three years of tightening, signalling a major policy shift amid worsening economic conditions
[updated]
'We strongly believe the Reserve Bank should be easing monetary policy as soon as possible. Indeed, we are on record as having said that it should already have done so'
6th Aug 24, 10:05am
125
'We strongly believe the Reserve Bank should be easing monetary policy as soon as possible. Indeed, we are on record as having said that it should already have done so'
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has held the Official Cash Rate at 5.50% but noted this policy may be hurting the economy more than expected
10th Jul 24, 2:21pm
111
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has held the Official Cash Rate at 5.50% but noted this policy may be hurting the economy more than expected
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
23
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
With the economy in a tailspin and the RBNZ stubbornly holding the OCR, Gareth Vaughan takes a look at the non-tradable inflation dilemma
6th Jul 24, 9:10am
38
With the economy in a tailspin and the RBNZ stubbornly holding the OCR, Gareth Vaughan takes a look at the non-tradable inflation dilemma
Economists are eyeing earlier interest rate cuts after ‘dire’ business survey shows inflation has been ‘beaten’
2nd Jul 24, 1:49pm
79
Economists are eyeing earlier interest rate cuts after ‘dire’ business survey shows inflation has been ‘beaten’
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
2nd Jul 24, 10:55am
28
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
Nicola Willis delivered on most of her promises but faces extremely tight budgets for years to come
31st May 24, 6:36am
175
Nicola Willis delivered on most of her promises but faces extremely tight budgets for years to come
Reserve Bank considered lifting interest rates to offset a decline in productivity which is making inflation worse
23rd May 24, 6:00am
73
Reserve Bank considered lifting interest rates to offset a decline in productivity which is making inflation worse
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
1st May 24, 3:56pm
7
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
An unexpected surge in American inflation demonstrates the danger of cutting interest rates while risks remain in the domestic and global economy
27th Apr 24, 9:00am
56
An unexpected surge in American inflation demonstrates the danger of cutting interest rates while risks remain in the domestic and global economy
There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
17th Apr 24, 4:01pm
18
There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee adds the word ‘confident’ to its inflation forecast, even as hot CPI release looms
11th Apr 24, 7:39am
39
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee adds the word ‘confident’ to its inflation forecast, even as hot CPI release looms
With economic data having panned out roughly as the Reserve Bank forecast, this suggests there won't be an OCR change on April 10
7th Apr 24, 6:00am
80
With economic data having panned out roughly as the Reserve Bank forecast, this suggests there won't be an OCR change on April 10
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
13th Mar 24, 11:31am
12
Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
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Reserve Bank policymakers will be weighing up various measures of inflation as they begin committee deliberations
18th Feb 24, 6:00am
53
Reserve Bank policymakers will be weighing up various measures of inflation as they begin committee deliberations
With the Reserve Bank having little choice but to dig its toes in to fight non-tradeable inflation, Gareth Vaughan hopes the Government has an open mind to providing long-term support
8th Feb 24, 5:00am
47
With the Reserve Bank having little choice but to dig its toes in to fight non-tradeable inflation, Gareth Vaughan hopes the Government has an open mind to providing long-term support
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say
7th Feb 24, 2:04pm
58
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say