Mary Jo Vergara
Kiwibank economists say they would 'advocate' that the Reserve Bank cuts the OCR by 50 basis points both next month and again in November
23rd Sep 24, 3:09pm
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Kiwibank economists say they would 'advocate' that the Reserve Bank cuts the OCR by 50 basis points both next month and again in November
Soaring levels of business confidence in the wake of interest rate cuts have got the economists wondering how quickly the country's economy might get rolling again
3rd Sep 24, 1:15pm
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Soaring levels of business confidence in the wake of interest rate cuts have got the economists wondering how quickly the country's economy might get rolling again
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says it will take till 2029 for per capita GDP to return to previous levels
19th Aug 24, 2:36pm
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BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says it will take till 2029 for per capita GDP to return to previous levels
Kiwibank economists believe the Reserve Bank is set to do a big about-face with its Official Cash Rate forecasts
29th Jul 24, 2:06pm
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Kiwibank economists believe the Reserve Bank is set to do a big about-face with its Official Cash Rate forecasts
'We are hitting the point where the RBNZ’s worries should switch from the risks from cutting the OCR too soon to the risks of keeping it too high for too long'
22nd Jul 24, 2:50pm
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'We are hitting the point where the RBNZ’s worries should switch from the risks from cutting the OCR too soon to the risks of keeping it too high for too long'
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
18th Jul 24, 5:00am
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The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
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Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
Kiwibank economists say as migrants send some portion of their wages back to their home countries this suggests weaker local consumption than otherwise
6th May 24, 12:23pm
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Kiwibank economists say as migrants send some portion of their wages back to their home countries this suggests weaker local consumption than otherwise
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
1st May 24, 3:56pm
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Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
17th Apr 24, 4:01pm
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There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
Ahead of April 17’s much anticipated release of the March quarter CPI, Westpac, ANZ and Kiwibank cast their predictions with all three banks expecting annual inflation to be higher than the RBNZ has forecast
14th Apr 24, 8:07am
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Ahead of April 17’s much anticipated release of the March quarter CPI, Westpac, ANZ and Kiwibank cast their predictions with all three banks expecting annual inflation to be higher than the RBNZ has forecast
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
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Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
[updated]
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
12th Feb 24, 12:22pm
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There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
With new figures this week likely to show our inflation rate falling meaningfully, economists are nevertheless concerned about the potential for for further inflationary disruptions
22nd Jan 24, 3:05pm
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With new figures this week likely to show our inflation rate falling meaningfully, economists are nevertheless concerned about the potential for for further inflationary disruptions
Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
4th Dec 23, 12:15pm
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Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
10th Oct 23, 10:33am
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New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
3rd Oct 23, 2:01pm
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Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
'We see quarterly economic activity flitting between small positives and negatives over the remainder of 2023. In per capita terms the economic downturn will be much more pronounced' - ASB economists
29th Aug 23, 11:37am
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'We see quarterly economic activity flitting between small positives and negatives over the remainder of 2023. In per capita terms the economic downturn will be much more pronounced' - ASB economists
If the economy develops as expected, with very weak economic activity and falling inflation, then 'we should start talking more about rate cuts as we head into next year', Kiwibank economists say
22nd Aug 23, 11:34am
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If the economy develops as expected, with very weak economic activity and falling inflation, then 'we should start talking more about rate cuts as we head into next year', Kiwibank economists say
Core inflation has barely budged in the past nine months and may stick around until unemployment begins to rise, economists suggest
19th Jul 23, 4:48pm
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Core inflation has barely budged in the past nine months and may stick around until unemployment begins to rise, economists suggest
New Kiwibank spending data shows that despite the cost of living squeeze we are still spending as we need to - but discretion is being applied
11th Jul 23, 11:22am
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New Kiwibank spending data shows that despite the cost of living squeeze we are still spending as we need to - but discretion is being applied
Kiwibank economists think there should be a fall in New Zealand's wholesale interest rates after this week's Official Cash Rate announcement
10th Jul 23, 3:51pm
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Kiwibank economists think there should be a fall in New Zealand's wholesale interest rates after this week's Official Cash Rate announcement
Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
19th Jun 23, 1:53pm
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Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
Economists at the country's biggest banks are neatly divided as to whether the economy has or has not gone into recession, but there's great consensus that things are slowing and that our current account deficit's very big
12th Jun 23, 3:22pm
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Economists at the country's biggest banks are neatly divided as to whether the economy has or has not gone into recession, but there's great consensus that things are slowing and that our current account deficit's very big
ASB economists rue the whiplash derived from last week's big 'dovish' shift by the Reserve Bank, while Westpac economists still see a further Official Cash Rate hike in August and ANZ economists expect one in November
29th May 23, 1:55pm
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ASB economists rue the whiplash derived from last week's big 'dovish' shift by the Reserve Bank, while Westpac economists still see a further Official Cash Rate hike in August and ANZ economists expect one in November