Doug Steel
Activity in NZ's services sector has improved, but still remains at contractionary levels, while manufacturing has moved further into contraction
16th Dec 24, 10:49am
14
Activity in NZ's services sector has improved, but still remains at contractionary levels, while manufacturing has moved further into contraction
Following another strong dairy auction, Westpac economists now have the highest milk price forecast; ASB economists have also raised their forecast as a record payout for this season looks ever more likely
20th Nov 24, 3:05pm
1
Following another strong dairy auction, Westpac economists now have the highest milk price forecast; ASB economists have also raised their forecast as a record payout for this season looks ever more likely
Activity levels in New Zealand's economic engine room remain at contractionary levels
18th Nov 24, 11:21am
3
Activity levels in New Zealand's economic engine room remain at contractionary levels
BNZ economists raise their forecast farmgate milk price to $9.75 on the back of buoyant global prices and a dip in the value of the NZ dollar
13th Nov 24, 2:52pm
7
BNZ economists raise their forecast farmgate milk price to $9.75 on the back of buoyant global prices and a dip in the value of the NZ dollar
BNZ economists look back at some of the reasons why the Reserve Bank made big OCR cuts in the past, finding such reasons don't currently exist
21st Oct 24, 2:22pm
36
BNZ economists look back at some of the reasons why the Reserve Bank made big OCR cuts in the past, finding such reasons don't currently exist
Activity in New Zealand’s services sector 'inched its way higher' during August
16th Sep 24, 11:53am
4
Activity in New Zealand’s services sector 'inched its way higher' during August
While service sector activity recovered a little last month from the 'horrendous' June results, the Performance of Services Index is still below the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis
19th Aug 24, 11:36am
5
While service sector activity recovered a little last month from the 'horrendous' June results, the Performance of Services Index is still below the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
18th Jul 24, 5:00am
30
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
15th Jul 24, 11:43am
77
Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
Economy flatlines for sixth quarter as sharp construction slowdown is partly offset by record kiwifruit harvest
20th Jun 24, 10:51am
99
Economy flatlines for sixth quarter as sharp construction slowdown is partly offset by record kiwifruit harvest
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
93
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
85
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
Pricing intentions in NZIER’s quarterly survey are falling closer to the long-run average as demand weakens and firms let staff go
9th Apr 24, 4:56pm
6
Pricing intentions in NZIER’s quarterly survey are falling closer to the long-run average as demand weakens and firms let staff go
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
New Zealanders are spending like its 2017 as high interest rates sap retail sales volumes
23rd Feb 24, 5:57pm
46
New Zealanders are spending like its 2017 as high interest rates sap retail sales volumes
Overall inflation direction encouraging but bank economists cautious about stubborn non-tradeable inflation
14th Dec 23, 7:40am
57
Overall inflation direction encouraging but bank economists cautious about stubborn non-tradeable inflation
[updated]
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
15th Nov 23, 8:24am
60
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing index falls for seventh consecutive month
13th Oct 23, 12:23pm
8
BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing index falls for seventh consecutive month
New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
21st Sep 23, 10:52am
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New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
Job ads are continuing to decline in the BNZ/SEEK Employment Report - suggesting that the anticipated sharp cooling in the labour market is beginning
15th Aug 23, 11:57am
52
Job ads are continuing to decline in the BNZ/SEEK Employment Report - suggesting that the anticipated sharp cooling in the labour market is beginning
BNZ economists say economic activity will take 'a noticeable hit' from the expected lower milk price this year
8th Aug 23, 10:47am
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BNZ economists say economic activity will take 'a noticeable hit' from the expected lower milk price this year
Auckland food manufacturer says some costs are coming down, but staffing is a battle
10th Jun 23, 9:10am
8
Auckland food manufacturer says some costs are coming down, but staffing is a battle
US CPI close to expectations but softer undertones sees US yields lower and steeper. Market pricing in more than 75bps of Fed cuts by year end; contemplating July start. US dollar marginally weaker, JPY stronger. BoE expected to hike 25 bps tonight
11th May 23, 8:08am
US CPI close to expectations but softer undertones sees US yields lower and steeper. Market pricing in more than 75bps of Fed cuts by year end; contemplating July start. US dollar marginally weaker, JPY stronger. BoE expected to hike 25 bps tonight
US regional banking worries return, US labour market cooling. Oil prices slump circa 5% on global growth concerns, softer data. Eyes on NZ FSR, Q1 labour market today, ahead of Fed tomorrow morning
3rd May 23, 8:08am
US regional banking worries return, US labour market cooling. Oil prices slump circa 5% on global growth concerns, softer data. Eyes on NZ FSR, Q1 labour market today, ahead of Fed tomorrow morning
Risk sentiment improves on much calmer markets and some positive indicators. Global rates movements contained
30th Mar 23, 8:05am
Risk sentiment improves on much calmer markets and some positive indicators. Global rates movements contained