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Doug Steel

Economy flatlines for sixth quarter as sharp construction slowdown is partly offset by record kiwifruit harvest
20th Jun 24, 10:51am
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Economy flatlines for sixth quarter as sharp construction slowdown is partly offset by record kiwifruit harvest
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
93
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
85
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
Pricing intentions in NZIER’s quarterly survey are falling closer to the long-run average as demand weakens and firms let staff go
9th Apr 24, 4:56pm
6
Pricing intentions in NZIER’s quarterly survey are falling closer to the long-run average as demand weakens and firms let staff go
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
New Zealanders are spending like its 2017 as high interest rates sap retail sales volumes
23rd Feb 24, 5:57pm
46
New Zealanders are spending like its 2017 as high interest rates sap retail sales volumes
Overall inflation direction encouraging but bank economists cautious about stubborn non-tradeable inflation
14th Dec 23, 7:40am
57
Overall inflation direction encouraging but bank economists cautious about stubborn non-tradeable inflation
[updated]
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
15th Nov 23, 8:24am
60
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing index falls for seventh consecutive month
13th Oct 23, 12:23pm
8
BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing index falls for seventh consecutive month
New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
21st Sep 23, 10:52am
104
New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
Job ads are continuing to decline in the BNZ/SEEK Employment Report - suggesting that the anticipated sharp cooling in the labour market is beginning
15th Aug 23, 11:57am
52
Job ads are continuing to decline in the BNZ/SEEK Employment Report - suggesting that the anticipated sharp cooling in the labour market is beginning
BNZ economists say economic activity will take 'a noticeable hit' from the expected lower milk price this year
8th Aug 23, 10:47am
44
BNZ economists say economic activity will take 'a noticeable hit' from the expected lower milk price this year
Auckland food manufacturer says some costs are coming down, but staffing is a battle
10th Jun 23, 9:10am
8
Auckland food manufacturer says some costs are coming down, but staffing is a battle
US CPI close to expectations but softer undertones sees US yields lower and steeper. Market pricing in more than 75bps of Fed cuts by year end; contemplating July start. US dollar marginally weaker, JPY stronger. BoE expected to hike 25 bps tonight
11th May 23, 8:08am
US CPI close to expectations but softer undertones sees US yields lower and steeper. Market pricing in more than 75bps of Fed cuts by year end; contemplating July start. US dollar marginally weaker, JPY stronger. BoE expected to hike 25 bps tonight
US regional banking worries return, US labour market cooling. Oil prices slump circa 5% on global growth concerns, softer data. Eyes on NZ FSR, Q1 labour market today, ahead of Fed tomorrow morning
3rd May 23, 8:08am
US regional banking worries return, US labour market cooling. Oil prices slump circa 5% on global growth concerns, softer data. Eyes on NZ FSR, Q1 labour market today, ahead of Fed tomorrow morning
Risk sentiment improves on much calmer markets and some positive indicators. Global rates movements contained
30th Mar 23, 8:05am
Risk sentiment improves on much calmer markets and some positive indicators. Global rates movements contained
Risk recovers a touch; US equities higher after yesterday's late dip. BoE hikes 25bps; SNB hikes 50bps. US rates settle lower post Fed; US10s around 3.44%
24th Mar 23, 8:11am
Risk recovers a touch; US equities higher after yesterday's late dip. BoE hikes 25bps; SNB hikes 50bps. US rates settle lower post Fed; US10s around 3.44%
Market sentiment improves as Credit Suisse gets support from Swiss central bank. ECB follows through with 50bp hike. Equity markets rise as financials recovery some lost ground
17th Mar 23, 7:51am
Market sentiment improves as Credit Suisse gets support from Swiss central bank. ECB follows through with 50bp hike. Equity markets rise as financials recovery some lost ground
Global rates lift on German inflation, US ISM; US 10-year hits 4%. US dollar lower. AUD held back by weaker GDP, CPI
2nd Mar 23, 7:59am
Global rates lift on German inflation, US ISM; US 10-year hits 4%. US dollar lower. AUD held back by weaker GDP, CPI
US equities a bit lower, yields down a touch, USD marginally higher. Oil prices lift
24th Feb 23, 7:52am
US equities a bit lower, yields down a touch, USD marginally higher. Oil prices lift
US data generally stronger than expected, including blockbuster retail sales report. Global yields higher, lead by the longer end
16th Feb 23, 8:09am
US data generally stronger than expected, including blockbuster retail sales report. Global yields higher, lead by the longer end
US equities lower as more central bank speakers talk higher rates. But US rates oscillate; US 10-year bond rates down a touch on the day
9th Feb 23, 7:54am
US equities lower as more central bank speakers talk higher rates. But US rates oscillate; US 10-year bond rates down a touch on the day
US wage inflation slows, lifting risk appetite. US equities lift, USD lower after earlier gains. NZD in mild dip overnight
1st Feb 23, 8:02am
1
US wage inflation slows, lifting risk appetite. US equities lift, USD lower after earlier gains. NZD in mild dip overnight
US equites lower, led by tech sector. Bank of Canada hikes +25 bps, signals a pause. Australia on holiday today
26th Jan 23, 8:08am
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US equites lower, led by tech sector. Bank of Canada hikes +25 bps, signals a pause. Australia on holiday today
Two major bank economists have lowered their milk price forecasts as dairy prices hover near two-year lows
24th Jan 23, 2:03pm
17
Two major bank economists have lowered their milk price forecasts as dairy prices hover near two-year lows