First month-on-month drop in car sales for three-and-a-half years may be another sign economy has peaked

New motor vehicle sales dipped very slightly in May when compared with the same month a year ago in another sign that New Zealand's recent strong economic growth may have peaked.

Motor Industry Association figures show there were 10,034 new vehicles registered in May, which was a very slight drop of 30 vehicles compared with the same month a year ago.

However, that drop - albeit from very high levels the like of which were last seen in the late 1980s - is the first such annual month-on-month drop recorded since November 2011. It's the first May-on-May drop in sales since 2009.

Since late 2011 vehicle sales have generally been growing and growing in line with a mushrooming economy.

But while sales for the year to date are still up 6% on the same time a year ago, the dip in May could be a broader indication of a weakening trend in the economy - which is being seen in other economic indicators.

Sales of passenger cars in May were actually up slightly compared with a year ago, but commercial vehicle sales were down - with 3191 new registrations in May compared with 3262 in the same month a year ago.

Commercial vehicle sales have been at historic highs on the back of such things as the Christchurch rebuild, with new registrations having topped 4000 in June last year.

This is the full media release issued by the MIA:

Year to Date New Vehicle Registrations Up Six Percent

David Crawford, Chief Executive Officer of the Motor Industry Association says ‘The new vehicle market held steady in the month of May with 10,034 new vehicles registered, a very slight drop of 30 vehicles compared to May 2014 where 10,064 vehicles were registered. However, the market year to date is six percent up (2,925 vehicles) on this time last year.’

Toyota remained the overall market leader for the month of May with 16 percent (1,604 vehicles) followed by Holden with 11 percent (1,105 vehicles) and Ford with 10 percent (1,025 vehicles). Year to date Toyota, Holden and Ford remain the overall market leaders.

New passenger car registrations of 6,843 vehicles in May were up 41 units on May 2014 sales of 6,802 vehicles. Toyota remains the market leader for passenger vehicles (958 vehicles/14 percent) followed by Holden (778 vehicles/11 percent) and Mazda (695 vehicles/10 percent). Year to date, Toyota, Holden and Mazda are also the passenger vehicle market leaders.

New commercial vehicle registrations of 3,191 vehicles in May were down 71 units on May 2014 sales of 3,262 vehicles. Toyota remained the commercial vehicle leader for the month of May (646 vehicles) and also year to date (3,197 vehicles/21 percent of the commercial market). The Ford Ranger remained the monthly top selling commercial vehicle model with 511 vehicles sold, followed by the Toyota Hilux with 404 vehicles. Year to date the Ranger remains the top selling commercial vehicle model with 15 percent market share (2,307 vehicles) followed by the Hilux with 14 percent market share (2,102 vehicles) a lead of 205 units.

Not only was the Ford Ranger the bestselling commercial model, it was also the top model overall for the month of May with 511 vehicles followed by the Toyota Hilux with 404 vehicles and the Nissan Navara with 385 vehicles. Light commercial vehicles occupied the top four bestselling models rankings for the month of May with the best passenger vehicle model being the Toyota Corolla, coming in at 5th with 310 vehicles. Year to date the top selling models are the Ford Ranger (2,307 vehicles) followed by the Toyota Hilux (2,102 vehicles) and the Toyota Corolla (1,963 vehicles). Two more commercial vehicle models complete the top five year to date being the Nissan Navara (1,531 vehicles) and the Holden Colorado (1,326 vehicles).

Reflecting the trends above, the sales of sports utility vehicles remains the dominant vehicle segment with 34 percent market share for the month of May and 32 percent year to date. Eight of the top 15 passenger vehicle models for the month of May were SUVs. The Pick-up/Chassis Cab segment continues to increase its market share with 23 percent for the month of May and 21 percent market share year to date and 20 percent for the 2014 year. The small passenger vehicle segment remains the third biggest segment but slipped to 13 percent market share for the month of May and 14 percent year to date. This compares to 18 percent market share for the 2014 year.

‘While the sales of new commercial vehicles dropped slightly for the month of May compared to May 2014, New Zealander’s love affair with Utes continues to see these models gaining market share’ said Mr Crawford.