It all goes from bad to worse for the country's ailing construction behemoth Fletcher Building [FBU].
Following the news at the half-year result announcement in February that both its chairman Bruce Hassall and chief executive Ross Taylor were falling on their swords, the company's now announced that profits for the year to June might be as much as $140 million less than forecast in that February announcement.
And the company told NZX that market conditions across its materials and distribution divisions have weakened throughout the financial year.
In early trading on the NZX on Monday the Fletcher shares were down 51 cents - or 14,5% - to $3.00. The share price is down about 37% since the start of 2024.
Fletcher said in respect to its business operations, in New Zealand, market volumes to date in the second half of the year have moved about 5% lower than they were in the second quarter of the year, while in Australia market volumes to date in the second half of the year are about 10% lower compared with the second quarter of the financial year.
"There has also been a notable slowdown in house sales in the New Zealand market and an end to the house price momentum seen through the first half of FY24," the company said.
In February, Fletcher Building forecast earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) before 'significant items' of between $540 million and $640 million.
The new, updated, forecast is for between $500 and $530 million.
If we compare the potential top end of the original forecast ($640 million) with the bottom end of the new forecast ($500 million) it means the new forecast is as much as $140 million, or 22% lower.
If we look at the 'midpoint' of the original forecast, it was $590 million, while the new 'midpoint' is $515 million. So, that's a $75 million - or 13% reduction.
The company said it expects that net debt at June 30, 2024 will be in a range of $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion. "The company’s liquidity profile remains robust, with $2.8 billion of debt facilities in place and liquidity at 30 June 2024 is expected to be $0.8 billion to $0.9 billion," the company said.
Acting chief executive Nick Traber said that given current conditions, "our focus has been on managing things within our control", in particular: customer service; costs and margins; cash flows; capital allocation; funding; and closing out the remaining legacy construction projects.
"Fletcher Building has many strongly positioned core business assets that have demonstrated resilience in current market conditions. Our immediate priorities are to optimise the performance of each of our businesses, close out legacy issues and tightly manage risks to maximise our ability to deliver shareholder value. Our people are integral to achieving this and I would like to thank each of them for their ongoing efforts as we navigate the tougher market environment."
48 Comments
Pretty sure it has been written a few times before
You would think that Govt could get some very sharp pricing on new social housing in the current environment
even real bang for the bucks infrastructure
If Fletchers bottom line is tanking are other big players in trouble?
"If Fletchers bottom line is tanking are other big players in trouble? "
Those with debt and falling sales absolutely are! The winter is looking bleak across the entire spectrum - not just building - and jobs losses will mount as businesses are forced to reduce costs for the new environment.
(Have I mentioned that the RBNZ should have started the normalization of interest rates back in Nov '23 to avoid this carnage? Why, yes, I think I have. Boom / Bust cycles are only fun for ghouls and fools, and those with inflated egos that think they know best.)
Have I mentioned that the RBNZ should have started the normalization of interest rates back in Nov '23 to avoid this carnage? Why, yes, I think I have.
What are normal interest rates? Why should debt be priced so low since it encourages people to leverage up - isn't debt correlated with risk/instability? My point is, maybe interest rates should never have been so low (and not just the covid rates) and to lower them now would just be can kicking on the road back to normal/stable financial system.
Taking your logic a step further - why not just fix interest rates at 20%? By your logic - that'd solve all the problems? ;-)
On a more serious note - interest is the 'cost' of borrowing. If people borrow excessively - then is it the cost of money that is the problem? Or is it what people are borrowing for? (Hint: The huge rises in NZ's private debt have gone largely into real estate.)
Taking your logic a step further - why not just fix interest rates at 20%? By your logic - that'd solve all the problems? ;-)
To play the game, no it may not solve all the problems. That said, we certainly wouldn't have had the massive house price inflation (not part of CPI, grrr) so housing would be more affordable relative to people's ability to save from wages (an improvement in my view).
If people borrow excessively - then is it the cost of money that is the problem? Or is it what people are borrowing for?
I think both are a problem, but the cost of money is only a problem if you're borrowed excessively to begin with. People are people and love a sale, I would argue debt has been on sale which has led to some of the excessive borrowing. As you say, a lot of the debt has ended up in real estate (as opposed to businesses) courtesy of the RBNZ risk weightings and what I consider favourable government tax and benefit policies such as the accommodation supplement.
And if you think there won't be further downgrades then I have a bridge to sell.
Once the bad news is all out - and the RBNZ has come to realisation that the OCR is a stupid tool in the hands of stupid people - FBU might be worth a punt.
But it would be a punt! NZ government want the cost to build reduced and imported products (apparently) are the answer. Quality be damned. In any event, FBU will be hit by falling sales / margins due to increased competition.
(edited: when I said 'punt' - I was referring to long term holders looking for growth with a decent, and increasing, yield. For technical analysts, FBU is an excellent trading stock!)
Personally I’d like to see ITM tank as well.
The whole industry needs to default so that it can be built to facilitate construction rather than prohibit builders using alternate suppliers.
Doni think this event with FBU will help construction prices come down? I doubt it. Probably the opposite.
The real question here is how does yours truly get one of these jobs in the likes of Fletchers management (heck even the Warehouse Group would do) or local/national government where you can seem to endlessly fail upwards for enormous amounts of money and even greener pastures when you finally get kicked out or fall on your sword.
I'm fed up of getting up in the morning, delivering results for my customers and only being paid modestly for a hard day's graft.
I want huge piles of cash for having the Turdas touch ... to borrow from the best Irish band (sorry U2) "everybody else is doing it, so why can't we?"
That's very kind of you, but then again what did Del Boy once say "a conscience is nice, but business is business".
In all seriousness, it does blow my mind how many smart, talented, innovative people I meet who run great businesses, or do good work in the community, none of whom ever seem to make it into this nebulous "management class" (which is a problem across public and private sectors) that seems to adept at draining cash from the system with little-to-no appreciable benefit for the average pleb on the street.
The Warehouse Group is a great example of this. Most of the management has been stinking up the joint for years (including that imported CEO who is as much use as a pair of sunglasses on a bloke with one ear) and what have they managed to do for all their millions of pay and rewards? Destroy shareholder value, and not much more. FBU being another one.
Very true. I'm being a bit facetious with my comments - I'm "worldly" enough to know that it's really the political manoeuvering that gets you to where you need to be. Same goes with the likes of management consultants, who are just their to sell back to an organisation its own ideas from an internal perspective in order to be able to cop flak for any pushback and provide a point of blame deflection.
Good points.
And we could also have a conversation about board directors. Often journeymen (and women) clicking their late-career tickets in a very lucrative way. It’s often jobs for mates. And from what I have seen, they are often lacking in the ability to think outside the square and be truly strategic (they all call themselves ‘strategic’ but many aren’t, in terms of the proper meaning of the word)
Also like Theresa Gutting did to Telecom but hey we got to have inclusion. Also that Dutch imported CEO of Fonterra that cost them 6 million a year and everything he did Fonterra has now sold at billions of loses and helped China build its dairy herd all on our genetics. Or Zespri how they helped overseas farmers plant gold kiwifruit but now complain that 5000 hectares of gold minum is illegal in China. Duh you top paid management are absolute F...wits.
Fletchers, the early days:
Start at 2:39 Grandad Gets Sent To A Spanish Jail | Only Fools and Horses | BBC Comedy Greats (youtube.com)
The majority of shareholders are pension and investment funds, which due to their mandates must hold x% of their fund in NZX-listed businesses usually relative to size. (The top 10 shareholders can be viewed on the companies office website)
Unfortunately, as a result basically every NZ'er with a Kiwisaver account will have a portion of their funds (and any other funds they hold) in Fletcher shares, meaning a lot of us here will suffer from this
"Unfortunately, as a result basically every NZ'er with a Kiwisaver account will have a portion of their funds [...] in Fletcher shares, meaning a lot of us here will suffer from this."
Not "every". My "aggressive" doesn't. And I can't imagine that other similar funds would either. (My fund does have its dogs though ... but nothing as bad a FBU.)
NZ index linked funds, though? Guaranteed.
Fair comment and good observation, indexes will need to based on being a top-50. I note that Fletchers is at the higher end of ESG ratings (not making a comment on this either way, just an observation) in ANZ so it is possible socially responsible indexes/ funds may have an outsized exposure, although uncertain and would need to review fund-by-fund
If you're interested in an alternative to index based investing, try this: Buy the index but exclude any and all stocks that have been a) falling for the past 18 months or more and b) have had flatlining for 5 years. What's left is the cream - floating slowly to the top. (You'll nee to review every 3-6 months to check you still have the optimum mix.)
Not sure why the anti ITM posting.
There are many prices out there for the same thing, you just have to find the best price. Fortunately M10 have a special deal that ITM and others like Carters don't have.
I needed specific LVL stick of timber for some house alterations, price at mitre ten was $101, price at Bunnings , same specification stick from the same factory, was $74. Miter ten gave 15% off bringing it down to $64. The guy behind the desk said depending on what kind of account I had at Carters it was probably $50.
I discovered the same with insulation, a supplier in Christchurch was 15% under the M10 price, and they beat it by another 15%,
I think it's too much hassle for the average builder to shop around and have multiple accounts. This is an aspect that ITM, Placemakers (FB), Carters etc rely on. I do what you do but I'm an ad hoc purchaser of building materials.
ITM not allowing you to purchase from other merchants I'd think would fall foul of some law but maybe ITMs contract takes care of this.
Can understand not be able to source direct from the manufacturer otherwise it's pointless having distributors.
The average builder is unlikely to read the contract so would just accept what's in ITM's contract without trying to negotiate changes (not that I'd think they'd have any success)
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