By Alison Brook*
Two years after shutting its borders, New Zealand has slowly begun the process of opening up to skilled migrants and international students. This comes as competition intensifies for skilled migrant labour in an extremely tight post-COVID global jobs market.
Net migration in New Zealand dropped to negative in 2021 for the first time in eight years due to the closed borders. Our rate of population growth has now slowed to a level not seen in 30 years. There are concerns the border reopening could exacerbate matters, at least initially, by leading to an outflow of younger Kiwis and non-NZ citizens to Australia and elsewhere.
Reduced immigration and a declining working-age population could have severe implications for rebuilding the country post-COVID. Over the long term, the effects would be slower economic growth and lower productivity. It will also make it harder to reduce the high levels of net government debt to GDP.
Net migration reverses historical patterns
The latest figures from January 2022 showed migrant arrivals down 59 percent giving an annual net migration loss of 7,500.
This loss compared with a net gain of 91,900 in the year to March 2020. Reversing historical patterns, most of the annual net migration loss was non-NZ citizens.
Source: Stats NZ
New Zealand’s immigration reset or “rebalance”
The immigration reset which was announced in mid-2021 but put on hold has now been rebranded as “a rebalance”. The details have yet to be announced but the stated aim is to reduce New Zealand’s reliance on low-skilled labour and force businesses to “lift working conditions, improve the skills training and career pathways for workers”. However, while many would agree the apparent declining focus on high-skilled immigrant has not been a good thing for the country, it is also becoming clear New Zealand businesses needs workers now – both low and higher skilled varieties.
Source: macrobusiness.com.au
Worldwide skills shortage
According to a report from Deloitte, the pandemic has only worsened a widespread labour shortage across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and parts of the European Union.
Parag Khanna writes in the Australian Financial Review, that the UK and US have responded by “returning to the expansionist migration policies that pre-date former US President Donald Trump and Brexit.”
US President Joe Biden has reversed the previous administration’s ban on H1B visas (allowing US employers to hire highly skilled foreign workers) and is allowing dependents of those visa holders to obtain work. They are also moving to make it easier for foreign graduates to immigrate to the country.
The UK, which lost 4 percent of its workforce as a direct result of Brexit recently introduced a new “high potential individual” visa. This scheme is designed to address their skills shortage and “supercharge” economic growth by allowing foreigners who graduate from an internationally recognised university to work in the UK without needing a prior job offer.
Across the Tasman, the Australian Office of Immigration has put a call out for skilled migrants in 44 priority occupations to apply to migrate to the “lucky country” making it clear that the right candidates will be welcomed. Like New Zealand, Australia has has a shortage of temporary workers across many industries such as construction, engineering, nursing and ICT. Unlike New Zealand, Australia also welcomed back fully vaccinated international students from 1 December 2021 whereas New Zealand will only allow students back for a “new start” in the 2023 year. There is a danger this delay will lead to what Harvard Professor William Kerr calls a “missed moment” – a window of time to catch someone when they were excited about an educational or work opportunity abroad.
New Zealand must now wait until April before the Government’s plans for the “immigration rebalance” is announced. Early indications are that as well as limiting the number of less-skilled migrants, it may also be harder for skilled migrants wanting to move to NZ to bring their partners and family members with them. The government has so far made no decision on when they will restart the parent category, which is an important drawcard for many potential and recent migrants.
There are some positive signs emerging, for instance, applications for some working holiday schemes opened this month for the first time since the pandemic began. However, Hospitality NZ Chief executive Julie White has questioned whether the scheme would do anything to fix the hospitality worker shortage when the visas are just for three to six months, and the workers are limited to work in one place.
As the world opens up it’s clear that a lot of countries are also targeting the key highly skilled migrant group. New Zealand cannot assume that it will be first in line for attracting this prized group – in fact from a timing perspective we are running behind much of the rest of the advanced world. As Parag Khanna writes in the Australian Financial Review, we are now in “an all-out war for young talent. The only question is which countries realise it first.”
*Alison Brook is from the Knowledge Exchange Hub at the Massey University campus at Albany, Auckland. She is on the GDPLive team. This article is a post from the GDPLive blog, and is here with permission. The New Zealand GDPLive resource can also be accessed here.
124 Comments
No one's going to save this ship its just hit the iceberg. We pulled out sold in October and are in australia. People are not going to immigrate they will flee for greener pastures and in particular australia. Auckland will have an oversupply by June and the remainder of the country at the end of the year. Come to NZ young teachers or nurses earn 3_9$ less than a tradesman and 1$ more than a fruit picker. Pay 3 bucks for fuel and 1m for a rundown house . When you sell give twice as much to the agent as comparable countries. I'm in QLD sunshine coast bloody lucky we kept our property here i have never seen some many kiwis melbourne and NSW have invaded but kiwis everywhere and most new just jumped on a plane and now they can get home if needed more will flee. We are both in health on an experienced doctor
Australia's "Permanent" residency is only good for 5-years at a time. Renewable upon applicant having resided in Australia for specified period (40 %, I think) in the preceding 5-years. Unlike NZ where "Permanent" residency is for an indefinite period. So NZ may well get people using it as a transit point & we will continue to see perennial shortages in the workforce. What's happened to the thousands of residency permits dished out in the past? Time for a reset on "Permanent" residency status .
I could see ours changing soon, especially if many are leaving. Canada have similar approach to Australia too, I believe (X amount of time out of the country cancelling the residency).
But an Australia permanent resident can access (visit, live and work in) NZ. However, a NZ permanent resident cannot access Australia.
Nz is a transit point due to both policy and conditions. We are not only going to lose those transitional people but existing as well .Australian hospitals are directly advertising and sending recruitment people to Nz . We will now be in a true international market for skills we will no longer get away with paying 40% less
I'm not 100 % sure that is pertinent kwbrn. However yes kiwi born to very long-standing kiwi roots including the original inhabitants before we came along. Do know a lot that have and now will use us as a stepping stone . I think John key created that as a trap hoping many would come intending to step onwards but get trapped due to an inability to ever get ahead . The mass migration he implemented includes a lot of quality humans but was in no way high skilled most seem to be working in harvey norman
We need skilled workers in many areas. Farming, medical, construction and tech to name a few. I know friends and family in all of these areas that are, or work with, young people that are already, or are planning to leave to Aussie. These are born and raised kiwis with 13+ years of healthcare and education invested by existing taxpayers, that will likely never pay any tax back in NZ as their working careers establish overseas.
The cost of living vs income is just to high for them. All their costs are underpinned by the mountian of lazy debt in the property ponzi. Previous immigration has been a tool to suppress income for this group. Their generation is the "meat in the middle".
The Govt has some really hard realities to face. Flood NZ again with immigration, which has crushed Auckland, or let the ponzi fail. Save the future, or continue to protect bank profit and boomer speculation.
Covid has forced people to take a hard look at their life and re evaluate what they are doing. Many will leave the country simply dosent make financial sense unless your a cashed up boomer your essentially working to live. We came back early 2019 to be with family and were astonished how bad it is and how kiwis just want people to suck it up so there nest egg grows. They won't suck it up anymore a young couple I worked with a teacher and dietitian 4 and 5 year degrees and had no furniture massive student loans thier quality of life was awful but also no way out. Thier salaries we only slightly above the minimum wage. COVID has changed everything we are not going to be able to treat valuable human asset's like crap and just replace them over and over again . Even the age old trick of pretending you don't have the skilled workforce by advertising then not hiring or advertising and not paying enough to attract them. then complaining there's a skill shortage so you can import lower skilled workers isn't going to work .
This is a link to an QLD job which fits my skills and experience. https://smartjobs.qld.gov.au/jobs/QLD-CAH410671?utm_source=joraau&utm_c… . It pays 65% more than what a southern DHB offered me .
Not difficult. To buy an inflation proofed pension equivalent to NZ Super would cost roughly $500,000 for a 65 year old. Buy it earlier and it would be cheaper. Arrive at a later age and it would be cheaper. Bring a state pension from your country of origin (eg my own UK pension) and you pay less. Decide to leave NZ and you get a refund. All fair and above board.
Our current system depends on your children having a big income but nothing stops them bringing parents who become residents and then children move on to another country leaving their retired parents as beneficiaries - Super, health, Accommodation allowance.
Health benefits paid by pre-purchased health insurance but note the NZ super is taxed as is GST on the food they buy so they are paying some fraction of their health costs just as we all do.
Basically the NZ govt would be selling residency - something not uncommon in other countries.
The parent visa has essentially has been closed since 2016 and the new rules that came in just before Covid hit are quite strict.
There's a quota of 1000 a year. Joint applicants need to earn x4 the median income ($212k) for 3 years for 2 parents to enter. They also agree to pay any leaving NZ costs and cover the parents cost of living.
Whether they do close it or not, I think the government should just make a clear decision. They've been dangling a carrot for 6 years.
Agreed. I remember that change in 2016 - just an arbitrary change with no transparency, no public debate. I am sure many families about to apply suffered badly but immigrants never ever complain about INZ because of fear.
Consider the current policy: why 1000 not say 850 or 1090 - just a nice round number?
A skilled immigrant with a wife at home looking after young children wanting to bring all four grandparents has to earn a spectacular amount. Even then if those four grandparents bring no state pension with them they will on average cost the NZ taxpayer about $2m in superannuation. The arbitrary income levels should be replaced with a payment equivalent to the cost of the superannuation and health benefits all NZ residents receive.
It is important this 6 year old candle is grasped. A few years ago our son's science teacher returned to Scotland so he could support his elderly parents; it should have been possible for his parents to bring their UK pension and retire in NZ.
It could happen but would be rare. When the parent system was operational many of the parents are in their fifties and worked the 10 years to qualify for Superannuation. The current system of high paid children sponsoring is not fail safe but does mean (a) most children will support their parents (b) most of them will be able to afford to do so. I suppose the children might die young leaving their parents stranded in NZ and relying on state benefits. At a guess well outnumbered by the wealthy parents who arrive with money (selling a house in London, New York or Tokyo for example) and live with well-paid wealthy children.
It does sound like a Wellington policy. Your kids develop terminal illnesses, you spend yours and their savings looking after them, they die, you are now destitute due to no fault of your own and what does our NZ govt do in its spirit of kindness - revoke your residents visa and send you back to the Ukraine, Somalia, Lebanon...
I agree, unless they can prove they either have an overseas pension or can prove they can support themselves. It seems crazy that we allow anyone to enter NZ and be eligible for any benefit (including Super), if they haven't lived and paid taxes here for 20 years.
Best thing we can do is have an upper population limit. Say 5 million.
Within that envelope, it's only one person in for one person out. Plenty of room in that for what we need.
So incoming becomes competitive and only the most desirable enter. And we lift capability of our own population. Eg. Train more of our own nurses.
You have to factor in an aging population. This hasn't been an issue to contend with for 50+ years, because there were so many boomers paying tax and helping grow the economy.
It's probably going to take 6-7 million just to support the services and infrastructure we're currently doing with 5.
I owned and operated a highly specialised allied dental health clinic for two decades.
Our clients were elderly, often with severe medical complications, dementia, etc. A challenging professional but rewarding at a human level.
We exited the industry in 2021 and have now relocated to Europe with our two children.
A main reason for exiting was complete disgust at the callous manner in which my profession and small business has been disrespected by this totalitarian government.
The over reaching beaurecracy, a complete lack of balance in considering SME's by the state during Covid, the lack of willingness by our Dental Council to even compromise on the exhortation of registration fees despite mandatory lockdowns, the fact that indeed most SME's in my sector were actively audited by the state at a precarious financial moment, the huge levels of anxiousness of our patient cohort due to 24/7 fear mongering by the MSM. These are all real factors that seriously impact health workers.
If the NZ government genuinely wants to prosper in these times of massive global health care and skilled worker shortages, then a radically different culture is needed. They first need to appreciate what they have and facilitate retention.
Completely off mark re. cost dimension.
In the last four months no less than 5 have my colleagues (middle aged, not retirement) have exited. Sold SME's if lucky, shut up shop and walked away in other cases.
It's cultural. I repeat, everyone of us is disgusted at the treatment by the Government. Also in health as the elderly clients have been scared to death your having to do a challenging job dealing with massed of anxiety caused by the MSM et al.
Compare this to say the construction sector where you can run around a site swearing and cursing all day, blaming each and every other subcontractor for the delays, while never taking responsibility and at least that cohort have a pressure release value!
Many of us would have carried on if not.
Cost, weather, lifestyle, I'm sure it's a combo. A lot of people with means are seeking early retirement, because we've gotten to see how problematic the "work till you're 65 then enjoy yourself" model can be.
If swearing and blaming other people were a pressure release valve then mental health wouldnt be a problem. There aren't too many sectors where running a business is easy breezy and simple, irrespective of government. Unless that government is corrupt and you're on their side.
Your case is pretty disingenuous. You made enough money so you didn't have to deal with the bullshit that comes with running a business. If you hadn't, you'd still begrudgingly be doing it.
Ok well if you're telling me the primary reason you and you family fled NZ for a cheaper, sunnier climate was to escape a repressive business environment and government I'll have to take your word for it. Politically, Spain is a basket case.
I can relate to the sentiment of getting out of dodge but the government's a lot further down my list, because I've lived in many places and most of them seem to be run worse, but it's less of an issue if you get to live outside the 99%.
I was thinking about Turkey, but then the Russians lost the plot.
I think our current population level is too low, however, we need to have debate and analysis about what the upper limit of the NZ population is for the long-term, how we get there, how rural regions of NZ can attract talent for both citizens and immigrants, and what the settings are for immigrants to come to NZ. Unsure of the natural population growth for western countries are but assume they are low to neutral.
Population too low? Compared to what? When was the last time there were ~5 million mega-consumers in NZ driving around in cars, gobbling meat and purchasing mountains of pre-delivered landfill from The Warehouse?
Dirty rivers, most native forest gone, rivers of cow pee, plastic washing up on the beach, housing to cover our best vegetable growing areas. The idea of increasing our population is madness. It is suggested by those who are ignorant of our predicament.
There's a great documentary out recently by a Kiwi producer exposing the problems with the dairy industry and the destruction to the environment called "MILKED - White Lies In Dairy Land". You can watch it free of charge online and it's something that every sustainability focused Kiwi must watch and reveals the future of the NZ economy to some extent.
The place would do better with two million. When I was a kid it was not much more than that.
As a single income, middle income family we lived in Mt Eden villa, and had a bach not 20 feet from the sand not much more than an hours drive away.
Can you imagine that now?
Oh we are having that debate.....just it’s behind closed doors, Chatham houses rules and not available to the general public
And so far Business NZ ,the NZ Initiative ltd and the current dreadful inner circle at the National party is winning the debate believe me....
Let’s be frank... they want eight million people with the majority of those from China.
They don’t care about the wealth of current New Zealanders but only how to grow their businesses.
If we aren’t careful we are going to go from a country that can’t house it’s self to one that can’t eat as well!
I can't agree with you. It has to be India not China. Chinese are rapidly becoming too wealthy to do the menial jobs required of low paid immigrants. Are recent Chinese immigrants willing to drive Uber, manage liquor outlets or work checkouts in supermarkets they don't own?
Both China and India and several other countries have incredibly smart highly educated young people - they either stay at home or go to California and create and build new technological businesses. They don't come to NZ; we get the less smart from wealthy families able to afford immigration agents and tertiary education fees.
... agreed .... China is staring down the barrel of a demographic timebomb over the next half century ... indeed , their population is aging rapidly , due to extremely low birthrates & the repercussions of the one child policy ... China's population will retrace by 40 % by year 2100 ...
India , on the other hand .... they're increasing in numbers , their wealth is in having a massive population of highly educated young people , who speak English , and adore cricket : We want them ! ... and the cuisine totally kicks arse , world's best ...
As usual academics skirt around the most significant change in society New Zealand will ever see. It is truly the elephant in the room: CO-GOVERNANCE. Yet it is happening right now, under the radar. As an example, I mention the introduction of the teaching of a revisionist history of New Zealand in the school-rooms at all levels. The collateral damage of this policy is already evident in the appalling failure in literacy and numeracy that has recently been exposed by the media. Every academic, including the author of this article, should be including this policy in their prognostications on whatever subject they write on concerning New Zealand's future. To omit this subject would be to undermine their credibility as impartial researchers and educators.
I'm hoping Alison Brooks will talk about this topic in future articles that address what New Zealand could look like in the future, but I suspect her employer may have already warned her off; it's a no-go area.
I believe Professor Spoonley, also of Massey University, may be able to help her in this regard.
Haha. I dont like your thinking normally but this made me laugh.
Mahuta-tokenism at its worst. Appealing to the Maori voter.
She wouldn’t know what a white Russian or a Bolshevik was, and she comments on Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. I doubt she’d know what happened to Tolstoy and what countries border the Ukraine. Absolute embarrassment.
Wow . Just wow failure to make it here . What a sad comment. Fairly indicative of the attitude we came across . Dump a pile of social and economic issues on the next generation then accuse them of failing to make it. Mass immigration nil infrastructure spend the third most expensive housing in the world with third world pay for professionals. Corruption everywhere no transparency, grocery cartel allowed to continue. 80k student debt 1.2 m house 50k salary 3$ fuel . You unhappy rejects how dare you leave or complain or try improve it . It sounds like someone at the top of society wide ponzi scheme .
The agenda may be "let's look after some Māori" and that's not too bad but it translates into "when we stuff up responsibility is split" and "if unelected people can do it why not return to only aristocrats can pull the levers of power just as it was when the treaty was signed"
... I wouldn't mind " co-governance " if it was with someone who knew better how to run things than we do ... co-governance with Singapore would get things cracking ... or with South Korea , Taiwan ...
Or ... we could just secede to Australia ... they're a lot less pathetic at running their country than we are at ours ...
"To omit this subject would be to undermine their credibility as impartial researchers and educators"
What credibility ? A very large number of academics have been subscribing to, actively promoting & teaching this racist antidemocratic dogma for decades. For eg the 2000 "academics" who piled in on those who questioned the Royal Society "Maori science" & the racist selection practices of the Otago Medical school.
I'm not sure I understand the link between co-governance and teaching history in school?
How does teaching history, revisionist or not, cause or even correlate with lower literacy and numeracy?
Literacy and numeracy issues could be more linked to the rise of social media and the digital, technological world capturing the attention and energy of youth. It could be too much stimulation via these things impacting their learning.
Can you give a concrete example of where co-governance has resulted in a poor outcome for the country. I hear a lot of old white men (and women to be fair) talk about how Māori are taking over and going to ruin the country but I have never been able to get a concrete example. Genuinely interested.
""Māori make up around 24% of Parliament, with 8 Maori MPs in the National Party, 13 in the Labour Party (including the Māori electorate seats), 6 in New Zealand First, 1 in the Green Party, and 1 in Act."' So it is partly a co-governance with themselves. A Labour Maori defeated the sitting National Maori in my electorate - nothing wrong with Maori in positions of power if elected. I do worry about those people who think Maori are unable to achieve anything that non-Maori can - suspiciously like racism.
Lovely, we're at war again - we are now in “an all-out war for young talent".
Maybe we need a new vision, a new story, a change in beliefs and values. "Economic growth" is so last century. It's outdated and no longer fit for purpose, assuming anyone even knows what it's purpose is.
We've followed the economic expansion, empire building ideology since the beginning of our known history, we're unable to question it.
At what point does the never ending demand for more money and more "wealth" become pathological?
Ultimately it's fear driven and conditioned behaviour. How does the human species free itself from this?
We're 13 000 km from Russia !
.... come on down under , young talented people ... come to the Hermit Kingdom .... free shovels given at customs when you arrive ... no one can afford a house here anymore , so you'll need to dig out a hole or a small cave ... food prices are outta sight expensive , so you'll lose weight , 'cos we can't afford to eat ...
Other than that .... sweeeet ... we're all hunkered down & safe ... no risks here ... .... well , except for poverty , meth , gangs , polluted rivers & lakes ...
Yup , come to Godzone !
When you are talking about young talented people, you assume that they are smart people. Smart people will do their homework and compare average/median wages, average/median houseprices and cost of living indexes between the OECD countries. The obvious outcome is that New Zealand will perform very poor in those comparissons. So it not only the poor timing and planning but also the poor living environment that counts for a young talent and we will see that the 100% Pure brand also does not work anymore because who wants to be associated with the 5th highest CO2 emitter per Capita in the world.
The " 100 % Pure " brand always brought sniggers of derision from us Cantabrians , who endure " 100 % Polluted " freshwater systems thanks to the explosion of dairying .... those water systems have become cisterns ... all in the name of exporting milk powder to China ... how fricking crazy is that ...
Alison Brook:
In addition, successive governments have enabled high levels of immigration without targeting this to close the skills gap of NZ workers. This has resulted in high levels of labour force participation but poor productivity and low wages.
The latest Digital Skills Report 2021 confirms that New Zealand has a huge digital skills shortage, and yet at the same time is producing too many under-skilled graduates.
The report highlights the shocking finding that in 2019, 3,265 students graduated with computer science, IT, or software engineering degrees, but only 352 were able to get internships, despite 2,699 registering. Meanwhile 2,683 visas were approved for IT professionals.
It is clear that businesses have relied on immigration to fill the digital skills gaps but have under invested in developing the technical skills of their own staff. In fact, “Less than 10 percent of large organisations and Government agency training was spent on digital technology upskilling”.
I’d say we need to get our own house in order before we jump back into papering over the cracks with more world beating levels of immigration.
Yeah, this is why every single business I contract at, I keep badgering them to keep getting grads in to do work. It absolutely confounds me that many don't do it, having bought up a number of grads through initially giving them menial tasks, but quickly advancing them up the scale to much more advanced work. Within a year, they are performing at the scale of junior/intermediates and are adding a lot of value to the business.
Much of this I blame on absolutely hopeless vision by IT management as well as a immigration dependent hiring companies that advise management to advertise for "highly skilled" people to fill their roles, who haven't existed for the past 2 years. But they continue with this dumb policy.
We currently have 3 grads (out of about 30 IT staff), much to my and other people pushing the current org I work for to employ more. They are working out fantastically, yet again. And I keep telling the management, who have roles open for 6-12 months before filling them, that within that time we could be employing and training up more grads, who will stick with the company for a decent chunk of time and add a lot of value. The blank faces I keep receiving astound me, even when you show them direct evidence of it happening, they still default to "but a recruiter once told me...".
Yes. I find the claims of immigration being some kind of critical productivity enabler quite strange. NZ has run one of the most aggressive per-capita immigration policies in the developed world and yet has had abysmal productivity growth.
Business takes the easiest path. If businesses can import large numbers of workers rather than having to invest in training or machinery they will do so. If they can import a worker rather than fight to retain a local they will do so.
I once worked at a company that made 46 people redundant, and within a year was using rate payer money to hedge against recruitment costs for migrant workers as part of the Wellington City Council “Look See” campaign. Crazy.
Yes. HR departments are an absolute burden. They are incentivised to hire those who are willing to lie about their experience and credentials and ignore anyone who's honest enough to say, "Yes, I'm pretty sure I can do this but I'll need a little time to learn." Mind-bending amounts of stupidity and waste result...
While you can learn programming etc on the job, I find those that are self taught to have both positives and negatives, but unfortunately mostly negatives. The positives is that they are generally more tenacious at finding solutions to problems. The negatives however are a long list, they don't have fundamental understandings of computing, so will often branch off down impossible rabbit holes, they don't know the boundaries of the environment they work in. This lack of theory also limits their ability to elevate their skills, they end up plateauing and not advancing to higher levels, you can see it's usually because they don't have solid foundations, all of their understanding is a bit shaky. Essentially they haven't had real paradigm shifts of understanding through steady study and application, they have learned the things they need to do specific tasks without understanding the why.
There are people that educate themselves to the level of degree and above in computing, but it's rare. Mostly I find those without an engineering degree at least, they end up just walking paths set out for them, unable to take intuitive leaps, so don't excel at moving beyond beginner/intermediate levels.
After 45 years as a computer programmer I know how much time and effort and risk is required to convert a trainee into a decent programmer - being a graduate didn't seem to make any difference - I was a science graduate myself with some computer courses but all the programmers I reckon were consistently better than me were non graduates. If I was a Kiwi computer manager I would always go for experience over training a local.
Obviously the cost of a work visa must exceed the true cost of training our own graduates.
So your preference would be to hire people from overseas given training, opportunity and experience in their own country in preference to doing the same thing for youth in NZ?
Or I’ll be kind and take it as it’s not an approach you necessarily agree with, but is the kind of behaviour that is being incentivised by the system as it currently stands?
Let me be clear I strongly object to this approach. Kiwis first! Our govt should be responsible only for the people of NZ not aliens/foreigners/strangers in our land. Of course bright young Kiwis should be the mainstay of IT departments.
I didn't enjoy the management aspects of IT but computers make you hard-headed - in NZ as it is today with current govt immigration policy and doing what is best for my employer I would be employing smart foreigners with some experience of IT - if they come from a 3rd world country or a country where safety is a serious concern (especially for women) then they will be obedient and do as they are told.
See in other comments the stats for job offers to NZ graduates.
I have a similar amount of experience, but in the data space. This is not my experience, nor that of most of the places I have worked. Actually it's quite the opposite, by and large, grads under me have gone on to be very successful and added significantly to the organisation. Advocating to keep hiring experience from a shrinking pool of labour while ignoring grads is a great way to destroy the industry.
ABSURD.
A. "Reduced immigration and a declining working-age population could have severe implications for rebuilding the country post-COVID. Over the long term, the effects would be slower economic growth and lower productivity."
Businesses get a free lunch employing immigrants. Even the productivity commission review couldn't grasp this point. Businesses should have to bid for the visa to bring in immigrant workers. They can then either choose to:
a) pay the visa costs & bring in the immigrant
b) train up a New Zealander
c) pay a higher wage and poach someone from another company.
nz-it-worker's comment perfectly encapsulates the issue
The report highlights the shocking finding that in 2019, 3,265 students graduated with computer science, IT, or software engineering degrees, but only 352 were able to get internships, despite 2,699 registering. Meanwhile 2,683 visas were approved
B. Economic growth needs to be measured per capita, not in absolute terms.
C. Also our carbon targets are per capita. We cant sustain high immigration rates to meet those.
D. "According to a report from Deloitte, the pandemic has only worsened a widespread labour shortage across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and parts of the European Union."
Rubbish - its simply the fact that businesses dont want to pay the salary/wage to balance supply and demand.
E. We should be aiming to maximise the growth in wellbeing per capita (economic+social+environmental impacts)/population. (another point the productivity commission could grasp) This cannot be achieved opening the flood gates to immigrant workers. We already have a massive housing deficient with significant negative social impacts that needs to be addressed.
Australia gets a " free lunch " when bright young Kiwis fly across to the big red continent , to avail themselves of the far greater lifestyles & wages there .... those bright young things haven't cost the Aussie taxpayer a single sunburnt penny to raise & educate .... yet , they hit the ground ready & enthusiastic to contribute positively ....
... Aussie is indeed " the lucky country " ....
That's right! But mimicking their policy for us, simply won't work. There are far better options out there than NZ considering all of the other things that the above comments point out (cost of living and cost of housing vs wages being the biggest). The result will be that we get the dregs that nobody else wants, a disastrous policy considering we are in competition with those other states. If we are unwilling/unable to bring down the cost of living in this country to attract the top talent, then we must grow our IT industry internally. And we have the people graduating the courses required, adding 3000 grads to the industry a year SHOULD be enough, considering the growth rates of the industry. But those grads MUST be given the chance to shine, which they almost exclusively do, in my experience. Again, it comes back to horrendous and frankly foolish HR policies to find highly skilled workers that they think are all just sitting around waiting for their oppourtunity. They have the ear of IT managers who then demand highly skilled workers that don't exist also.
Right now, I am being called by recruiters 3-10 times a week to see if I want to move on from my job. If I do move on to another org, that leaves a gap in my current org, it's a zero sum game. However, if they employ a grad in to start their career it is a NOT zero sum anymore, we are growing talent and the industry. Hiring and putting grads through the system is how we get richer as a country, stealing workers from other companies is how we stand still or go backwards.
Nearly all developed countries are facing a decline in working age populations. Europe is forecast by 2050 to have 30 million less working age people than now - yes automation etc will cover some of that.
Many provincial areas of NZ face a 20 to 40% reduction in working age population in 15 to 20 years.
My children and partners in their mid 20s, well educated in finance, IT and engineering, are all being cold called from recruiters all around the world. They will move because they want to do an OE but the only reason they will come back/stay is for lifestyle they say.
This demographic change is all new territory. Japan and parts of Europe have been struggling with it for a while. Its no ones fault or any one reason (some talked about here are laughable) but simple supply and demand.
Instead of trying to stop the tide going out we need to be honest about what's happening and plan for it instead of a belief that there is an endless supply of workers.
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