New Zealand’s financial system remains resilient despite the economic downturn, although more households are expected to default on their loans as unemployment rises.
The Reserve Bank’s November Financial Stability Report gave the country’s banking system a clean bill of health despite financial pressure and rising unemployment.
Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said banks expected a slight increase in non-performing loans—despite falling interest rates—but were well prepared due to high profitability.
"The strength of our financial system means we are able to weather economic uncertainties and challenges, including increased geopolitical tensions,” he said in a statement.
A reverse stress test showed banks would only breach their regulatory capital requirements in a much more severe recession, perhaps triggered by a global conflict or natural disaster.
Debt servicing costs in New Zealand have likely peaked and the average mortgage rate is set to trend downwards from 6.4% today. However, unemployment will continue to increase and cause more borrowers to default on their loans over the next six months.
“Banks have reported to us that many highly indebted households have little incomes or savings buffers available. This makes them vulnerable to unanticipated costs or losses of income,” the Reserve Bank said in the report.
Banks benefit from 'an abundance of cheap deposit funding'
Unlike households, the banks have been able to use their strong profitability to build financial buffers that will help them maintain the supply of credit even if losses grow.
Banks have benefitted from “an abundance of cheap deposit funding since the pandemic” as interest rates fell and customers stockpiled money in their transactions accounts.
More recently, soft lending growth means banks have not needed to rely on more expensive forms of funding, like wholesale market funding.
High levels of profitability, less exposure to particularly weak sectors like construction and hospitality, and stronger lending standards means banks are weathering the downturn much better than during the Global Financial Crisis.
This means the financial system remains sound despite some recession measures, such as consumption per person, giving similar readings to that downturn in 2008.
“Businesses have put investment plans on hold. The weaker outlook for demand and high borrowing costs are key reasons for the pause. Government expenditure is expected to decline as a share of the economy. Lending growth has been weak across sectors,” the report said.
Barely sustainable
The cost of buying a house continues to pose a risk to this financial stability with prices sitting at the upper end of the Reserve Bank’s sustainable range, even after big declines.
Average prices nationwide fell 14% from their peak in November 2021, while Auckland and Wellington prices dropped 20% and 23%, respectively. Despite this, few households have negative equity as prices were only elevated for a short time.
“New Zealand house prices have seen rapid growth and decline in recent years. After a run-up in prices and sales over the first two years of the pandemic, the market experienced broad-based price declines followed by a period of stabilisation,” the report said.
“Houses and land account for most of New Zealand households’ wealth, and home loans make up over 60% of bank lending. The sustainability of house prices and the risk of correction therefore matter for financial stability”.
It was still a stretch for prospective buyers to get a house and prices were “round the top of our estimate of sustainable levels”. The Reserve Bank assesses prices and mortgage costs relative to household incomes and renting as an alternative.
Still-high interest rates means purchasing a new house was unfavourable compared to long term averages, and renting was often the better value option.
The Reserve Bank said NZ’s house prices had risen and fallen more rapidly than many “booms and busts” in other advanced economies, including those during financial crises.
“Debt-servicing stresses are currently elevated and non-performing loans continue to climb. However, New Zealand has not yet seen the same widespread household balance sheet distress experienced in countries with similar house price boom-bust cycles”.
26 Comments
Average Age of US First-Time Homebuyers Hits an All-Time High
> Just last year, in 2023, the average age of a homebuyer was 49. In 2024, it’s skyrocketed to 56.
> the median age for a first-time homebuyer has jumped from 35 to 38. The share of sales by first-time homebuyers has plummeted to 24 percent, the lowest percentage since the NAR started tracking data in 1981.
Wonder what the average is in NZ?
#LandTaxes&CapitalGainTaxesNow
Multiple incomes are now required for owner occupier buyers in some geographical locations. An owner occupier household on a single median income is no longer able to buy in some locations in NZ. Co-ownership amongst family or friends is now increasingly common and necessary.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/360472650/presenter-brodie-kane-f…
2020-2021 saw an increase in total mortgage borrowing of 51 billion. How much of the collateral for those loans is now worth less than than the loan balance. The cost to service the majority of that debt has now at least doubled. If unemployment accelerates past the threshold to affect the home owning couples class then we are in trouble.
Real house prices (i.e inflation adjusted) in NZ are down more than 20% from their peak. This is before the impact of leverage.
Remember the commonly repeated mantra from property promoters "property is a hedge against inflation"
Under certain conditions, property is not a hedge against inflation.
Look at commercial real estate in the US.
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.
From the BoE.
As explained in ‘Money in the modern economy: an introduction’, broad money is a measure of the total amount of money held by households and companies in the economy. Broad money is made up of bank deposits — which are essentially IOUs from commercial banks to households and companies — and currency — mostly IOUs from the central bank. Of the two types of broad money, bank deposits make up the vast majority — 97% of the amount currently in circulation. And in the modern economy, those bank deposits are mostly created by commercial banks themselves.
So, approximately 97% of the money supply exists as bank deposits, which are created primarily through commercial banks when they issue loans, primarily leveraged mortgages.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/20…
Who cares if the banks lose there’s only a few of them & they’re Aust anyway, plenty of domestic opportunities if they kicked the bucket & closed
The RB & Govt need to be more concerned about the masses than a few banks
Equally it has to be said that our most important trade & transport link the Cook Straight Ferry cancelling clearly demonstrates this govt don’t know what time it is
Hmmm....would you give these two wanabe flippers a mortgage?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360474389/property-investor-couple-port…
Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said banks expected a slight increase in non-performing loans—despite falling interest rates—but were well prepared due to high profitability.
Thank goodness the banks will be OK, it's about time someone thought about those poor bankera.
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