Here is the latest forecast from Metservice for Saturday, March 16 - indicating the closest significant rain

Here is the latest forecast from Metservice for Saturday, March 16 - indicating the closest significant rain

Monitoring the climate is a difficult task. In New Zealand short-term forcasting is done by Metservice. Long-term climate monitoring is done by NIWA.

In November 2012, NIWA issued a forward looking report that included this Outlook #161 for the period to January 2013:

Rainfall is likely to be near or below normal in the north of both Islands, but near normal overall in other regions. 

In December 2012, the Outlook #162 said this:

Summer rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere.

Summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island, near normal for the southwest of the North Island and Nelson-Marlborough, and near normal or below normal over the remainder of the South Island.

December-February temperatures are likely to be near average or below average in western areas of both Islands, as well as the east of the South Island, and near average elsewhere.

In January 2013, the NIWA Outlook #163 said:

January-March rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in west and south of the South Island, but near normal or below normal in the east of the North Island. Near normal rainfall is likely for other regions.

In February 2013, the NIWA Outlook #164 said:

Rainfall is likely to be near normal for all regions but for the North of the North Island, where normal or above normal rainfall is forecast. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal levels for all of New Zealand for the season as a whole.

In March 2013 2013, the NIWA Outlook #165 says:

Rainfall for the March – May period as a whole is likely to be in the near normal range for most regions, except for the West Coast of the South Island, where normal to above normal rainfall is likely. Because of the existing soil moisture deficits across the North Island and in the eastern South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are expected to take some time to recover in these areas.

For more about NIWA's science, go here »