The inbound migration boom that's been growing wings in recent months has soared to new highs, with the country recording its second-highest ever seasonally-adjusted monthly net gain in migrants last month.
Statistics New Zealand said that there was a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 3800 migrants in March 2014 – the second-highest gain on record.
The highest - 4700 - was in February 2003 when a large number of overseas students arrived to study at New Zealand universities. In the latest month there were 1486 people who arrived on student visas, which is the most for a March in figures dating back to 2003, but is not that high compared with usual February student figures. In February this year, for example , 3658 people came into the country on student visas.
Net migration has been positive and mostly increasing since September 2012. The increase since then was mainly due to fewer New Zealand citizens leaving for Australia, as well as more non-New Zealand citizens arriving.
The seasonally-adjusted net inflow has now risen in each of the last four months.
Over the past three months the seasonally-adjusted inflow has averaged a touch over 3500. Such a rate, if maintained, would give New Zealand an annual net inflow of just over 42,000, which would be close to all-time highs.
The actual, that is non-seasonally-adjusted, figure in March was a net gain of 2897 migrants - which is actually the highest ever gain for a March month, with March often being a month that sees a net loss of migrants. Just under half of those migrants, 1427 to be exact, gave Auckland as their destination.
The swelling numbers of net inbound migrants are coming about in large part by fewer Kiwis leaving, particularly to Australia. But the numbers of inbound migrants are increasing too.
Back on a seasonally-adjusted basis, there was an inflow of 1310 NZ citizens returning from Australia in March, the most since the statistics started being recorded on such a basis in 1996. Likewise, the seasonally-adjusted net loss of NZ citizens to Australia in the month, at 720, was a new record low.
The Reserve Bank watches the migration figures closely, because of the potential impact on such things as the labour and housing markets. Further rises in the rate of immigration could be expected to put further pressure on the housing market, particularly in the heated Auckland market, which is where the majority of migrants usually settle. The current migrant inflows are running more strongly than the RBNZ had been forecasting.
ASB economist Daniel Smith said the strong net migration inflows, driven by trans-Tasman movement, were is likely to continue while the NZ economy and labour market outperformed Australia.
"We expect annual net migration to peak just below 40,000 later this year – which implies some slowing from the current pace. The RBNZ’s March forecasts featured a peak of around 29,000," he said.
"Additional workers will help meet strong demand in the Canterbury construction sector, but stronger population growth overall is likely to add to domestic demand and exacerbate housing market pressures, particularly in Auckland."
That, Smith said, was one of the reasons why interest rates will continue to rise over the next couple of years. "We continue to expect the OCR will rise by 25bps in April, July and December this year, with another 100bps of hikes over 2015 taking the OCR to a peak of 4.5%."
Stats NZ said the seasonally adjusted net loss of 400 migrants to Australia in March 2014 was the lowest since it began recording the statistics in the current manner in January 1996. The highest net loss to Australia was 4300 in February 2001, just before an immigration policy change that restricted access to welfare benefits for New Zealand citizens arriving after that date.
In the March 2014 year, migrant arrivals numbered 98,000 (up 14%), and migrant departures numbered 66,100 (down 21%), resulting in a net gain of 31,900 migrants. This is the highest gain since the January 2004 year (33,300). Of the 31,900 migrants a little under half - 14,800 - settled in Auckland.
The highest net gain ever recorded was 42,500 in the May 2003 year. The highest net outflow was 43,600 in the July 1979 year. Over the last 20 years (December 1994–2013 years), New Zealand's annual net inflow of migrants has averaged 11,700.
In the latest year, New Zealand had a net loss of 12,900 migrants to Australia, well down from 35,500 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by China (6200), India (6100), and the United Kingdom (5800).
Net long term migration
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85 Comments
If they are not students , then I hope they are not all contract cleaners , taxi drivers , petrol station till operators , supermarket checkout attendants, Eastern fast food outlet staff , hairdressers and nail technicians .
We have enough of the above already , and heaps of citizens on the benefit to do these jobs
two otherguys has a good point. If all these immigrants think we are so awful why are they flooding in?
Because we are a soft touch, you don't even have to be a citizen to vote, and most of them come from countries where you don't even get a vote or at least no real say.
Cancel their visas, send them back. Its only going to get ugly once all the bubbles go pop pop pop!
Hooray ! ....say SK, 2og, BD et al ...
Yeah, join the "madness" party in Auckland of fodder to keep that rental income and rent rises happening ....ay boys and girls :)
Stuff everyone else, as long as equity is growing in my "cold, leaky, damp property" portfolio...
Anyway, I have a plan .....instead of all the other tax payers propping up your above property portfolios, why doesn't the gummint stop the claiming of mortgage interest repayments against income for tax purposes ..... ???
Gasp !! I hear all you PI's out there cry ....you can't do that ! ....were running a legitimate "business" of providing a social service to the NZ populace of accommodation..... well BS to that !!
It's about time someone lobbied for this tax law to be changed ..... but it won't happen, as too many "vested interests" ......
What was it that the British parliamentarian Enoch Powell famously said? - "those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad". At the time (1968) Britain, with a vastly bigger population of around 50 millions, was receiving an influx of New Commonwealth migrants around the same size as New Zealand's current net migration figure. Thus what is happening in NZ is "orders of magnitude greater".
In Britain's case the British Nationality Act effectively granted hundreds of millions the absolute right of abode - following the end of Empire. In some respects it was a well meaning folly, designed to cushion the sense of loss as colonial possessions were gone so much faster than most could have anticipated.
So what do we make of New Zealand? This is a country actively recruiting vast relative numbers of migrants with the fundamental purpose being the inflation of house prices, thereby deluding the peasants. The boomer generation is so intoxicate on the fools gold of house price inflation that it cannot see beyond the next month's real estate statistics. Meanwhile the younger generation quietly seeths. The political implications of literally replacing a nation's population in this way are seismic - and all so the rational attempts of Adam Smith's "invisible hand" - to liquidate excessive debt - are frustrated.
Powell went on to explain what lay ahead - not in the immediate future but out on the far horizon. His portent for that future has actually come much closer - because of the staggering explosion of migration to Britain since the Blair years (some half million per annum). Immigration is set to be the biggest issue at the forthcoming EURO elections. Let's hope that the experience Powell warned of - that is now a daily reality for many Poms (including the descendants of those early New Commonwealth migrants) - will not be the experience of Kiwis some decades hence:
"They found their wives unable to obtain hospital beds in childbirth, their children unable to obtain school places, their homes and neighbourhoods changed beyond recognition, their plans and prospects for the future defeated; at work they found that employers hesitated to apply to the immigrant worker the standards of discipline and competence required of the native-born worker; they began to hear, as time went by, more and more voices which told them that they were now the unwanted".
Yes, and if you want to extend your comment into the current era, recent happenings in Sri Lanka and Ukraine are similarly analagous
(a) Sri Lanka. Over many years Tamils, indigenous to India, the province of Tamil Naidu, migrated to Sri lanka and congregated in the north-eastern corner of Sri Lanka. Having gained enough mass, they then sought to excise their occupied area into a Tamil-homeland rather than return to their country of origin. The rest is now history.
(b) Ukraine. Much of the population of eastern Ukraine are Russian speaking. As a collective they now seek to excise themselves from Ukraine and obtain self-rule with the financial and military support of Russia. The rest will be history.
(c) Hasn't happened in UK because they are widely dispersed up and down the country, among the wider population
(d) Auckland. ?????? No mandatory dispersion
This mass immigration seems to be driven by two forces:
1) collapsing birth rates in the West.
2) "Multiculturalism" ideology, we need to "embrace diversity" according to those Rainbow Coalition, Helenesque types that have white anted [ no pun intended ] the NZ Labour Party.
Migration Statistics
[quote] The seasonally-adjusted net inflow has now risen in each of the last four months
Can someone explain why migration data is seasonally-adjusted
I can understand visitor numbers being subject to "seasonal" effects
Migration behaviour is not driven by the seasons at all
Why not simply publish the absolute numbers instead of smoothing them
Precisely , the greasy, unctiuos ,smarmy little gits who run the NZ immigration service should front up with the truth and not massage the numbers
- What exactly is our immigration policy ?
- Who makes up these migrants and what do they propose doing here ?
- Are they going to add to our GDP and pay tax , or bring with them all sorts of sharp business practices and lax tax compliance?
- Why do English speakers have so much difficulty getting in , while Punnjabi's , Kashmiris and Bangladeshis who cant speak English get to overtake whole suburbs?
Enoch Powell was a racist who wanted to stop poor destitute Pakistanis and other Muslims from entering Britain to live off the dole in free state housing with free NHS and free education and a host of other entitlements for which trhe British taxpayer worked so hard
From MacroBusiness: on the NZ population ponzi
"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Michael Reddell has written an interesting paper questioning the merits of New Zealand’s high immigration program, which appears to have crowded-out (through higher interest rates and a high average real exchange rate) other productive investment, lowering living standards in the process"
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/rbnz-slams-the-population-ponzi/
Ray-gun, Puketepapa and Boatman....you guys should form a gang (well you already have kind of)...A gang that will spawn many more gangs... and our streets will be rife with intolerant and zenophobic mastodons searching for anyone 'off-coloured'...you know in the tradition of the Paki bashers that still abound in Britain ....Turk bashers in Germany....Roma bashers through eastern Europe ....you get the drift!! Humanity has sooooo gone forward....the progression amazes me!!
Human nature is a funny and wonderous thing - as long as there is someone to bash others will be spared....a kind of racist pecking order sets in whereby those deemed to be of least economic,social or sporting significance become the new kicking stones. Remember how Pacific Islanders were given the same treatment?....well Inga, Jonah and Tana changed the course of all Islanders future for the better....just wait a while....come another generation of 'Kiwi' speaking Chinese, Somalis and Bangladeshis making their name in different circles and the bashers will be looking for someone new!!
Poor analogy
You should have mentioned George Nepia
http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/people/george-nepia
Inga, Jonah and Tana were mercenaries, only popping their heads up when rugby went professional
Chinese have been present in New Zealand for over 100 years. Can you name "one" who has represented New Zealand in Rugby, Union, League, Cricket, Soccer, Hockey or Netball
I cant think of one
Where do you draw the line between patriotism and political correctness? When does patriotism become racism? I’ve got no problem with other cultures or races but I’m proud of mine (European Kiwi) and don’t want it diluted. Just ask a British person how British London feels these days or a Maori person how Maori NZ feels these days….
And by the way.....did anyone give a toss about the dilution of the Maori race or the concerted efforts by proud European Kiwis of the day to oppress Maori culture and the language of the indigenous New Zealanders....don't come with a half-arsed effort to disguise racism as pure patriotism....it is what it is....Mankind has consisted of migrants since life came to this earth.... and always will be !!
Based on your own logic surely any resentment on the part of Maori over European immigration and cultural imperialism during the Victorian era was "racism". After all, according to the standard left wing "meme" all immigration is now good and all concern - however benign or reasoned - is "racism, fascism, xenophobia etc". Therefore, if it is good today it must surely have been good yesterday?
The real issue, as the European experience is demonstrating, is that a defacto "accommodation" has been reached between the political left and the corporate elite. Mass immigration effectively acts as a depressant on wages - especially for the poor (but increasingly for the middle class). Didn't Pacific Islanders protest in Auckland a while back about their appalling wages. Of course, they can't apply the free market sanction of withdrawing their labour because vast swathes of replacement population are simply spirited in to replace them. This is why in London you may be served your Pizza by an East European beauty who can speak five languages and build you a nuclear reactor if you want one. Let's ask our righteous left wing friends - what happened to the ordinary Pom who used to do that job? Moreover, what derisory remuneration is paid to our well-qualified waitress from Warsaw or wherever? A transparent living wage? - Please don't make me laugh. No, it’s a cozy little arrangement where big business gets the cheap labour and parties of the left get a fresh voting base - having alienated so many of the traditional working class.
Yes, Exponential Naivety is correct that immigration has gone on since time immemorial. Indeed, what is happening in Europe right now has precedent in the events that occurred ahead of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. A key reason for that collapse was that Rome became a welfare state with citizenship based purely on domicile rather than shared history and commonality of purpose. This is precisely the policy being employed by the European Union and the outcome will be no different.
The fascinating thing about the European - and especially British - immigration debate is that it is finally entering the mainstream. Why? Because the magnitude of what has occurred (immigration approaching double the entire population of New Zealand since the Blair years) is beginning to affect the pious left and their big businessman friends. The sneers and pieties can no longer be so easily rattled off because the homogeneous enclaves to which the elite retreated in the evenings are rapidly changing too.
Despite the garbage rattled off about “Paki bashers that abound in Britain” (utter nonsense and my own family straddles the ethnic divide in London) that country works extraordinarily well as a multicultural society. Why do all the lefties - who cry “racist” all the time - think so many diverse peoples want to move there? Yet it is our home - and our hospitality and resources are being stretched to breaking point? Maybe that’s the intention of Europe’s elite – to create the pretext for an absolute authoritarian state. New Zealand would do well to look at Europe with a determination to avoid making the same mistakes.
Interesting ideas, similar to my own. Left wing ideology is now dominated by Cultural Marxism, their number one enemy is the "white heterosexual middle class male" who they blame for everything wrong in society. This "oppressor class" must be destroyed, so it follows that the current Left sees a flood of 3rd World immigrants as a way to accomplish this goal. In fact all they are doing is sabotaging their own society.
I must be missing something here but we are be subjected to record immigration levels NOW whilst being governed by a party which is nominally of the RIGHT. Your analysis of the failure of the left to limit immigration is fine as far as it goes but the Right look just as complicit. As far as I am aware only NZ First and the Greens wish to genuinely restrict immigration (and they are coming at the issue from very different points of view).
Bear in mind that Enoch Powell was sacked from his shadow cabinet post in the British Conservative party in 1968 (the U.K equivalent of the National Party) because of his speech on immigration. Bear in mind how much the British Conservative Party elite loathed Margaret Thatcher - not least because she spoke for the ordinary guy over concerns about immigration. The British Conservative and New Zealand National Parties are "Cultural Marxist" institutions who work in concert with the redistributive left. Look at some of their attitudes to things like property rights! The left does the "heavy ideological lifting" whilst the Conservatives and National consolidate the gains. Friedrich von Hayek reminded us in the Road to Serfdom in 1944 that even then there was almost no one alive who could remember a genuine capitalist society. Key and Cameron et al are simply the business side of the folie a deux - which exchanges a fininte supply of first world incomes for an infinite supply of third world votes and a collateral supply of cheap labour.
The NZ Maori have for centuries faced the same challenges that European Kiwis now face, mass immigration of other cultures. The Maori go to great legnths to preserve their culture, I'm saying the European Kiwis should do the same.
I see from your lack of responses to the comments below that this is already getting too hard for you, just label us all racists so you don't need to think any more.
Your question is clearly idiotic.
Get off your high horse and actually start helping fix problems instead of throwing unearned crap at people who have no option in the matter.
As a New Zealand "kiwi" I have no "foreign soil" to go back to. My culture is completely alien to anything in Europe, US or anywhere else in the World.
I clearly cannot go back 5 previous generations and tell my ancestors to stay....believe if I could, for their benefit and "mine" I would. I detest the parochial attitudes of the population, the feudal behaviour of the government, the wilful ignorance of the educated in this country and above all the poverty mentality.
In a country with so many advantages, and so many possibilities for freedoms it is so sad to see it run into the ground
The term "European Kiwi" implies you originally hail from Europe and obtained Kiwi citizenship, is this correct?
I have a little trouble drawing the line too. Doesn't being a European Kiwi mean that you are, in fact, not a real Kiwi but just one of those immigrants (those that will contribute to diluting your culture...)? If so, there are a lot of people diluting the culture around. From the 2013 Census data "The European ethnic group was still New Zealand's largest major ethnic group at the 2013 Census. Nearly three-quarters of the population (2,969,391 people or 74.0 percent) identified with one or more European ethnicities. ".
European Kiwi is just a PC term for white Kiwi.
The first thing we need to ask ourselves is, do we need more immigrants. I think the answer to that is obvious both from a sustainability perspective and a economic one. NZ inc is getting progressively poorer as the same resources are shared amoungst more people.
The second is integration, if we must have immigrants they should share our values and make a effort to integrate. It does no one any good to have insular communities with society.
You have got me wrong utterly EN I am an increasing population as an excuse for an economy basher. I don't care who they are.
Go look www.populationmatters.org and you will see where I am coming from
If you are going to criticize me and call me names then make them the right ones, OK
Oh whoops, yea I know...our planet is way overpopulated ....how could I have so misread you RG....you're a preservationist, out to safeguard humanity from itself. We'll isolate ourselves from the vagaries the outside world can impart on us and build a giant possum fence around our shores...we'll populate the country from within...with what stock we have already let in (unfortunately...but maybe we can do something about that?) ....now the only thing we have to hope for is that none of our relatives want to get in or that one of our children doesn't want to come back with a partner from the 'outside'...
Our country is populated enough and given the control that women have on their own fertility a rising natural birth rate is unlikely, at any rate that would matter anyway.
Yes, I am a proponent of the human race taking steps to protect itself from itself and to preserve the wild places and the other things that live on our planet, whose demise will only serve to further impoverish us.
NZ is in a position to lead from the front a bit here, we have laid waste to the natural environment here, but with intelligence and sympathy a lot could be restored, but NOT if we over populate the place
They say the human population will peak at about 10 billion in about 80 years, well looking around now I would hate to think how any "stabilization" might come about. Our old tried and true method does not bear thinking about and the ones who will follow us will be the ones who will have to face this
The planet will not support 10 billion and it has been estimated that in order for there to be enough resources for everyone to live the rough equivalent of a European lifestyle (economy wise before you start jumping up and down) there is really enough for about 3 billion of us. We are more than double that now, and the unrest and sabre rattling that is going on all over the place is, I believe, a symptom of there being too many already
My view is of concern for the human race, but you got to get with the program
You know RG I am witrh you on all of this, I share your concern and I know that my four children and baby granddaughter have a damn sight more existencial angst to go through than you or I have or ever will have to experience - we have the theory of resource depletion and societal implotion to keep us awake....they may have the reality of it to cope with. Or not...all I know is that we also cannot live a life where we lay siege to ourselves...
What type of mickey mouse country are Kiwis living in. I am Australian and over there there is a points system where migrants can get in. The point accrue based on age, qualifications and the like with the main points coming from the fact they are on a list of required trades. From what I am seeing it looks as if you are Asian you get in. What type of agreement has JK woven with his Peking masters?
The problem is one gets their foot in the door then they can apply for their "family". Like the refugees who can apply for "family reunification", the whole village excluding the goat herd ends up on permanent NZ resident status.
There are characters residing and working in Auckland with zero English speaking ability while I've met British people jumping through immigration hoops and still can't get a fair deal.
That is one of the main reasons that Australia shut the door on New Zealand residents entering Australia in 2001. Street smart people who couldn't meet the "points" requirements to get directly into Australia began using New Zealand as a back-door into Australia
Once upon a time travel between the two countries was documentation free, the drug-idiot known as Mr Asia spoilt it for everyone and Australia slammed that door shut and required passports for all travellers from New Zealand.
Then in 2001 they slammed the another door shut and now all New Zealanders, both natural-kiwis and those with recently-acquired-nz-citizenship are barred from obtaining welfare and free education and free healthcare
It has always been that the few spoil it for the rest
Maaaate .. I think it's everybody .. was listening to radio interview of a lady from Ireland who had just moved from Ireland to Perth WA with her husband and 3 pre-teen children. Her husband was an engineer who had taken up a job with a mining company.
She was moaning that they were having to pay $40,000+ per year just for the education of their 3 children in the public system. She was ready to go back to Ireland.
NZ also has a points system. Still the outcomes are often puzzling.
I know about a lot of well-to-do German pensioners who would like to regularly spend Northern winters in NZ, but cannot get any suitable visa. NZ govt literally requires them to be millionaires. Very good pension income plus mandatory health and other insurances are just not good enough for NZ.
Look around in the streets of AKL to see the NZ immigration standards otherwise ...
A) 12-24 month moratorium on immigration for everyone; Chinese, English, Irish, Australian, South American, Indian.... and see how the economy and property market, especially in Auckland adjusts. Upfront cost zero. Might even not need those new house builds and reduce unemployment.
B) NZ government offer the Chinese government assistance to check the origin and destination of the money their citizens are parking here. We don't need dirty money and the Chinese are going to need it back very soon. Mutual benefit. Will prove if the new Premier is serious about stopping corruption.
If the govt was serious about restoring housing affordability (and thus the traditional NZ way of life) it would (a) substantially restrict immigration for a significant period, (b) reform its relation to Councils to force more land to be unlocked for development, (c) nudge the RBNZ to moderately increase interest rates. Problem solved.
None of this is happening, as the govt is quite happy with the average punter taking up ridiculously high loans turning himself into something like bonded labour, just for a simple roof over the head. Makes it a lot easier to control the plebs.
Btw, funny how the same people here go on about how important migrants are to "the economy" who a few days ago were ranting about the Auckland housing markets imminent and inevitable collapse. My gosh ...
Makes it a lot easier to control the plebs. Bingo
The pie is only so big. For a small group to do really well, many have to do very poorly.
And a democracy and MSM distribution of propaganda (and ignoring alternatives) means most people volunteer for their own bondage. Deviation from the status quo is too scary.
Cant say Ive noticed the "same ppl" myself in fact the opposite. So for the record, as a "I think its going to pop at some point" person, I think inward migration should be stopped. In fact if you are a NZer and have not paid NZ tax in say 10 years your passport should not be renewed overseas unless you come back.
Seems you have a habit of putting up arguemtns that dont exist, straw men...
In terms of " imminent and inevitable collapse" for the former the time frame is 6months to 6 years....for the latter yes its inevitable, peak oil guarantees it.
regards
The Beginners Guide to Why The Rental Market Will Boom
Higher immigration = higher demand for rentals = higher rents
Higher interest rates = higher costs = slower building = higher rents
Higher deposits = higher numbers renting = higher rents
higher rents plus higher interest rates = fewer people able to buy = higher rents.
Steady house prices + higher interest rates = higher rents
Falling house prices = more forced sales = higher demand for rentals = higher rents.
With immigration as it is, all will continue to be good in landlord land.
Rents are set to boom. House prices are either stable or rising.
God is smiling on PIs. And good on him too 'cause landlords provide a valuable service to many in the community. Where would we be without landlords?
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