The inbound migration boom that's been growing wings in recent months has soared to new highs, with the country recording its second-highest ever seasonally-adjusted monthly net gain in migrants last month.
Statistics New Zealand said that there was a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 3800 migrants in March 2014 – the second-highest gain on record.
The highest - 4700 - was in February 2003 when a large number of overseas students arrived to study at New Zealand universities. In the latest month there were 1486 people who arrived on student visas, which is the most for a March in figures dating back to 2003, but is not that high compared with usual February student figures. In February this year, for example , 3658 people came into the country on student visas.
Net migration has been positive and mostly increasing since September 2012. The increase since then was mainly due to fewer New Zealand citizens leaving for Australia, as well as more non-New Zealand citizens arriving.
The seasonally-adjusted net inflow has now risen in each of the last four months.
Over the past three months the seasonally-adjusted inflow has averaged a touch over 3500. Such a rate, if maintained, would give New Zealand an annual net inflow of just over 42,000, which would be close to all-time highs.
The actual, that is non-seasonally-adjusted, figure in March was a net gain of 2897 migrants - which is actually the highest ever gain for a March month, with March often being a month that sees a net loss of migrants. Just under half of those migrants, 1427 to be exact, gave Auckland as their destination.
The swelling numbers of net inbound migrants are coming about in large part by fewer Kiwis leaving, particularly to Australia. But the numbers of inbound migrants are increasing too.
Back on a seasonally-adjusted basis, there was an inflow of 1310 NZ citizens returning from Australia in March, the most since the statistics started being recorded on such a basis in 1996. Likewise, the seasonally-adjusted net loss of NZ citizens to Australia in the month, at 720, was a new record low.
The Reserve Bank watches the migration figures closely, because of the potential impact on such things as the labour and housing markets. Further rises in the rate of immigration could be expected to put further pressure on the housing market, particularly in the heated Auckland market, which is where the majority of migrants usually settle. The current migrant inflows are running more strongly than the RBNZ had been forecasting.
ASB economist Daniel Smith said the strong net migration inflows, driven by trans-Tasman movement, were is likely to continue while the NZ economy and labour market outperformed Australia.
"We expect annual net migration to peak just below 40,000 later this year – which implies some slowing from the current pace. The RBNZ’s March forecasts featured a peak of around 29,000," he said.
"Additional workers will help meet strong demand in the Canterbury construction sector, but stronger population growth overall is likely to add to domestic demand and exacerbate housing market pressures, particularly in Auckland."
That, Smith said, was one of the reasons why interest rates will continue to rise over the next couple of years. "We continue to expect the OCR will rise by 25bps in April, July and December this year, with another 100bps of hikes over 2015 taking the OCR to a peak of 4.5%."
Stats NZ said the seasonally adjusted net loss of 400 migrants to Australia in March 2014 was the lowest since it began recording the statistics in the current manner in January 1996. The highest net loss to Australia was 4300 in February 2001, just before an immigration policy change that restricted access to welfare benefits for New Zealand citizens arriving after that date.
In the March 2014 year, migrant arrivals numbered 98,000 (up 14%), and migrant departures numbered 66,100 (down 21%), resulting in a net gain of 31,900 migrants. This is the highest gain since the January 2004 year (33,300). Of the 31,900 migrants a little under half - 14,800 - settled in Auckland.
The highest net gain ever recorded was 42,500 in the May 2003 year. The highest net outflow was 43,600 in the July 1979 year. Over the last 20 years (December 1994–2013 years), New Zealand's annual net inflow of migrants has averaged 11,700.
In the latest year, New Zealand had a net loss of 12,900 migrants to Australia, well down from 35,500 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by China (6200), India (6100), and the United Kingdom (5800).
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