National says it would bring some Kiwis abroad home for Christmas if it was in government.
The party, in its just-released plan for tackling Covid-19, said it wouldn't use "nationwide" lockdowns once 70-75% of over-12s are fully vaccinated.
It would also start re-opening the border once 85% of over-12s are fully vaccinated. Currently, 44% of over-12s are fully vaccinated.
The Government hasn’t put a number on the level of vaccination that needs to be reached for New Zealand to open up, but Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has said he would like the rate “at or above 90%”.
The Government’s plan is also for border restrictions to be lifted in the first three months of 2022.
National’s spokesperson for Covid-19 Response Chris Bishop said once a vaccination rate of 85% is hit, a traffic light system should be used to reopen New Zealand.
Fully vaccinated travellers from places where the vaccination rate is above 80% would be able to enter New Zealand without isolating. They’d still need to do a pre-departure test and a rapid and saliva test or arrival in New Zealand.
If they test positive, they would need to either isolate at home or in a quarantine facility.
Bishop expected people from Queensland, Western Australia, the ACT, the Cook Islands and Taiwan to be considered low-risk or greenlight travellers in the first instance.
As for the medium-risk pathway, these would be travellers from places where Covid-19 is spreading but is under control and where the vaccination rate is above 50%.
Fully vaccinated travellers from these jurisdictions would need to isolate at home for seven days. There would be enforcement via spot checks and the possible use of digital monitoring apps.
Again, they would need to be tested before departure and on arrival.
Bishop expected travellers from NSW, Victoria, Singapore, the US, the UK and many European countries to fall into this category.
“Under this plan, Kiwis coming though the green and orange pathways would be able to come home by Christmas,” Bishop said.
The Government in August outlined a similar traffic light system at a high level (see below). However, it didn’t use specific vaccination rates to define jurisdictions’ risk profiles.
Bishop outlined 10 steps we “urgently” need to take to prepare to reconnect to the world:
- Supercharge the vaccine rollout, including by offering people incentives to get vaccinated, vaccinating kids at schools, setting up pop-up stations in nightlife areas, resourcing Māori organisations and health providers more, and prioritising South Auckland
- Order vaccine boosters
- Upgrade our contact tracing capability
- Roll out saliva testing at the border and in the community
- Roll out rapid tests for essential workers and in the community
- Create a dedicated agency, Te Korowai Kōkiri, to manage our Covid-19 response based in Manukau not Wellington
- Build purpose-built quarantine
- Launch a digital app for vaccination authentication
- Invest in next-generation Covid treatments
- Prepare our hospitals and expand ICU capacity
National said that at 85%, New Zealand could replace the “elimination” strategy with a “vigorous suppression” approach towards the virus.
“This is a strategy where New Zealand aims to keep the number of Covid-19 cases very low, but not necessarily at zero,” Bishop said.
“There will likely be cases of infection under this strategy, but the aim is to rapidly respond when they occur and minimise the number of people infected.”
See National's 52-page plan in full here.
65 Comments
a good plan, but needs a bit more detail ie how are you going to monitor people isolating at home, we tried that and some dont do it, also how do you stop family visiting them, and why pick south auckland out as an area when this outbreak started in the city and spread west first?
now all they need to do is replace judith with Dr Shane Reti and you got my vote
"how do you stop family visiting them". You can't thats the problem.
Further the idea of "vigorous suppression" proposed by national is inherently flawed. The reality with Covid particularly Delta is that suppression in any form just won't work. The R value of delta is too high & there are too many people who don't buy into the "war on Covid" which render this strategy unworkable. Suppression has been attempted by almost 100 countries & every time it has failed.
Ultimately you have to decide between elimination & "living with the virus". It is a somewhat binary decision. Both options have significant costs. Labour it appears have decided on the former.
Make those that want to self isolate pay a $100000 bond either cash or secured over house or other assets. If you breach the restrictions you loose the bond. Tell the neighbors of the isolating person that if they observe any breach of the rules they can call in. If the breach is proven they get 50k from the 100k bond that is forfeited.
So effectively you're saying only the wealthy can come into New Zealand and if you don't have $100k in cash or assets (ie most millennials) for a bond that they can't come into New Zealand, even though they may have never committed a crime before or done anything remotely untrustworthy.
Donny,
You might find this interesting; www.thelancet.com Vol 397 June 12 2021. The title is SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties
I do believe Dr Reti is being underestimated. From observing his questioning and debating in parliament, he is organised, considered and penetrating. There is too with him, an inherent degree of professional qualification that evinces a degree of sincerity that is difficult to find elsewhere in parliament. Does he want the job though, and might he not be a bit too honest to make it work?
I watched a bunch of kids go to Wellington to show their schools “no sugary drinks in schools for sale” initiative. They were so proud to be drinking water only and choosing to be healthy.
Dr Reti comes down to meet them and when asked by a seven year old kid.... do you agree? Should we stop Coke being sold in schools? Go water only....
well he couldn’t answer that one... too tough a question from a seven year old
reti is just a con like the rest.... puppets only for likes of the NZ Initiative who probably did the peer review of their new policy
If Delta has a thick head, large body and a long tail, how is a 14 days isolation/quarantine enough ?
Also, why wait till all the household contacts of the infected people come out with positive test ?
Why not ask them to quarantine straight away ? Increasing Quarantine, ICU facilities seems to be a priority. Is that being attended to ?
Finally a plan!
Labour can't even come up with one. Instead it's all about control, locking us down and increasing fear.
Like National's plan or not, at least they are trying.
Don't tell me about deaths. People are dying every day from all sorts of diseases. We need to move on with practical public health measures.
“practical public health measures” good point. Given the opening up and probability of Delta infecting both vaccinated and unvaccinated more readily, shouldn’t then by now, the government/MoH be providing reassuring data to New Zealanders that our health system is sufficiently enabled to treat those infected with the pharmaceuticals and procedures that have been developed and proven worthwhile. Not a medical expert but Doxamethasome, Regenetron amongst others. Surely that treatment will help alleviate hospital admissions with GPs playing an active role accordingly. Is anything like this being planned? Is there anybody out there?
Those drugs are quite expensive. But 2 billion a week could probably buy quite a few doses. For the government to mention their existence or heaven forbid publicise their effectiveness would be counter productive to their fear,control and vaccinate strategy. Maybe they should be known as the Voldemort treatments.
Labour announced a plan for a traffic light travel system over a month ago, National has basically copied it and said they would do it asap, never mind the risks. Judith Collins was on The AM Show this morning and couldn't answer a question about whether anyone would die under her policy. She said people drive cars take the risk and accept a certain number of people die every year. So of course they would let people die from Covid they have basically admitted it.
The reality is, no one knows what the pandemic is going to do next. I feel sorry for everyone screaming out desperately for a plan - it's an uncertain time for everyone, and a difficult time for everyone. Everyone is desperate for this pandemic for be over. Some people distract themselves from this uncertainty by using the Government as a punching bag. Deflect their problems onto the Government to shift it from their own uncertainty. Unfortunately the Government can't do magic. A new variant could emerge even more virulent and deadlier than delta. This is why the Govt don't have fixed timeframes on their plans is for that reason.
So the best we can do is buckle up and see where the pandemic takes us. Do the best we can do, handle it as best as we can. We know from past pandemics that these diseases become endemic and mutate to be about as deadly as the common flu or cold. But we just don't know when this might be. Until that happens we really have to hold our resolve, look out for one another and feel lucky to be living in New Zealand at the moment, a country which has had one of the fewest death rates in the world. We are all incredibly lucky to be here, protected by our moat, where we do have the capability to eliminate this virus and keep ourselves safe.
Don't know if I agree with all of the plan, but I did agree with one of Judith's comments in the QnA - that the government needs to stop blaming the general population for not opening back up yet.
The government is the only group that has the power to stop restrictions. The only "hostage takers" (to paraphrase HDPA from her recent opinion piece about anti-vaxxers) are those in the Beehive.
With the stroke of a pen they could allow a return to normality. Norway just did this, for example - overnight just about every restriction was removed.
That isn't to say there would be no consequences in terms of illness and death in the community in doing so, but to pretend that any group other than the government is holding the country hostage is a bit disingenuous to say the least.
Isn't it great that no one seriously harmed by NZs poor health system and government can sue and especially relatives cannot sue when family members are directly killed by govt decisions. Because once covid-19 delta is spreading in our poorly vaccinated health workforce and education systems (and no DHB has even close to accurate records of DHB staff because health services and staff can be using contracting companies) it is GAME OVER. Widespread harm to the tune of over a million$ per death (but mostly only to their family if you consider a ready pool of people moving into NZ to replace them).
Why would Prime Minister Ardern make an early announcement? There is nothing to lose if she keeps New Zealand guessing, herself in the limelight and the media hanging on every word. This is the perfect scenario to draw attention from Labours numerous domestic policy failure.
Wow nearly 2 years later and someone finally comes out with a plan. Nice set of 10 but at least put them in order. Points 7 and 10 should have been started 18 months ago, its all to little to late. The only option left now is pretty much get to 85% vaccination rate and just open up. I still think they should be implementing 7&10 however this will not be the last Pandemic or even the last strain of Covid we may have to deal with. If a really deadly variant broke out now and the current vaccine was useless we are all back to where we were 2 years ago. We have had idiots in charge, no progress just lockdowns that have see the economy go backwards, wasted billions that could have been spent on future proofing against another pandemic.
The Nats are effectively saying that there is an acceptable number of Covid related deaths in order to open up a couple months before scheduled. Based on current official modelling, that is 4000.
And, it is not "on them" if they don't get a vax. By not vaccinating anyone directly increases the likelihood of wider transmission to other people. What a stupid comment.
What do you mean by "a couple of months before schedule"?
There is no scheduled opening date to the rest of the world. This is incompatible with the elimination strategy.
See the below link. The govt intends to maintain the elimination strategy indefinitely. Enjoy your stay in the smug hermit kingdom.
https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/latest-updates/governm…
The implicit schedule is when we have a critical mass of vaccinated persons.
The Nat plan is to bring forward that schedule by reducing the ratio of vaccinated persons required. By current projections, the difference amonts to like a couple of months, 4000 deaths and flooded ICUs.
nymad, I support personal responsibility. You don't get a shot, then it's on you.
If people die because they choose not to get a shot, then sorry, it's your own decision. Don't lock us down because 15% of the population is too uneducated to get a jab. I don't include those who cannot get a jab due to their heath condition.
Can't see any discussion about targets for specific high risk groups.
If we're all getting jabs to protect hospital then we should target elderly and obese rather than shame young non-obese etc to do it. Is this possible? Maybe 90pc+ amongst high risk and 80 elsewhere is ok. Denmark etc think like that.
You give me a number, because you're the one trying to impose laws and restrictions that contravene most basic freedoms that we enjoy.
The onus is on the lockdowners to prove that ongoing restrictions are necessary and desirable, not the other way around. The default is our cherished lifestyle of December 2019.
Agreed Brutus. My daughter hasn't had interaction with another child for almost 10 weeks. I want proof this won't effect her mental health in a material way. Do I get this proof? No I just get told by mother goose to "be kind". I think the true costs of lockdown/elimination are for the most part ignored.
4000 in the first year Nymad The numbers will then drop away dramatically after that. The virus will take out those that are most vulnerable and then the numbers will just drop into the noise that is already the total number of flu related deaths per year. The country needs to harden up and quit the be kind narrative, the lockdowns are causing all sorts of other problems now, time to move on.
There is a table in the full text's Table 2. The modelling is based on:
COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study
Which assumes "90% VE against disease and 80% VE against infection" with "R0=4.5" according to the abstract. So the whole thing is political bullshit.
Thanks Tim, good reading.
My reading of this is assuming delta has an R0 of 6, then we will need 90% of the total population vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
However this also assumes the vaccine is 86% effective at preventing infection. It is this later assumption I have major issues with. As in Israel although for the the first 4-5 months the vaccine was relatively effective at preventing infection. This falls off a cliff after this point & you start seeing large number of break-though cases. I believe the vaccine was only 39% effective at preventing infection after 6 months.
Not that this matters as we will never get 90% of the population vaccinated anyway. In essence suppression does not work.
I believe you mean GANG not club. It is not a club you can join, ignore and drop out of at any time (no repercussions). Also the drug trade & prospect crime & violence very heavily leads them to being gangs, not clubs. But it sure is more dangerous to have our govt using high trust models and covid spreading amongst those who readily ignore the most serious laws with large penalties. Because what can the govt actually do to get large GANGS already committing crimes to obey lockdown requirements while committing criminal actions... Ask them to please not trade in drugs and stolen goods that are non essential.
National is hovering at 26% support because of stupid ideas like this. You cannot "heavily suppress" an endemic virus. And why bother when the death rate is the same as the flu?
We need to ditch all Covid restrictions like Norway and Sweden. This country is at a serious crossroads. We have the world's highest housing costs (in comparison with incomes) but are reliant on low return on capital, commodity dairy products. We have dropped from numero uno in per capita GDP to about number 30 since the 1950's - because of excessive Big Brother control of business. In my humble opinion we need to slash corporate tax rates and open up land supply.
I would also note that the people who are really scared of this virus, are still welcome to lock themselves down for however long they feel comfortable. This is abundantly possible with things like online grocery shopping, masked walks along remote beaches etc.
But they need to let the rest of us live our lives how we want.
Isn't it great that no one seriously harmed by NZs poor health system and government can sue and especially relatives cannot sue when family members are directly killed by govt decisions. Because once covid-19 delta is spreading in our poorly vaccinated health workforce and education systems (and no DHB has even close to accurate records of DHB staff and services) it is GAME OVER.
Yep now the Labour government needs someone to blame and who better than the unvaccinated running about and spreading it when the lockdowns were clearly working to stamp it out, yeah right. We will have hundreds of cases in a few weeks and level 4 is no longer an option, the people will not stand for it.
Yes but its pointless now, they were not even in power to implement it 2 years ago and I seriously question whether their actions at the time would have been any different to Labour. We just dug our heals in and put everything in the lockdown basket without any other plans in the event that it failed.
It's a little depressing that everyone is still pretending that this vaccine gives you sterilising immunity because it does not. It's about 40% effective against the predominant delta strain according to the Israel data.[ref 1] Many people possess natural immunity,[ref 2] and vaccinating healthy young people is illogical because their chance of getting seriously ill from covid is close to zero.
In 12-15 year old boys are 4-6 times more likely to get myocarditis from the vaccine as become hospitalised from covid, and the risk of myocarditis get much worse if they’ve had covid and naturally recovered already.[ref 3] Because natural recovery gives you superior antibodies,[ref 4] by vaccinating the very young you're depriving them of the chance to build their own natural immunity and raising the risk of future calamity if we ever get a viral strain with a few more mutations resulting in vaccine enhanced disease.[ref 5,6]
A digital app sounds like a vaccine passport by stealth. So we're going end up with vaccinated people running around parading their vaccine passport, and making everyone sick because they've actually got covid. You'll also have naturally recovered people who're actually fully protected by virtue of their own immunity being ridiculed and coerced into getting a useless (to them) medical procedure that might harm them. Moreover, by vaccinating naturally recovered people en masse you're concealing evidence about the efficacy of the vaccine vs natural recovery which is actually quite sinister. Not to mention the divisions and anger these vaccine passports will produce in society. Seems to me that there's a lot of groupthink predicated on false logic.
References
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
[3] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1.full.pdf
[4] https://www.science.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abh1766
[5] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5
[6] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.640093/full
Fun fact to start with no one has natural immunity. There are bad effects, disablement, death, loss of income, harm to family, colleagues and friends and not as bad effects. You cannot pretend your sh does not stink and your immune system is the whitest without bleach.
Your "fun fact" is actually un-fun disinformation. The Nature article (reference 2 in my post) clearly shows that a cohort of the population has T-cell immunity to covid proteins through exposure to other coronaviruses. These are likely to be the many people who get covid and have virtually no symptoms at all.
The problem with National is they still have the Ghost of JK about them. Ie they talked the talk, but never walked the walk.
In fact, the way both Parties have handled housing is a great comparison for what is happening with Covid.
National talked about what they were going to do but did nothing.
Labour talked about what they were going to do but did the wrong thing.
It's really a choice between bad or worse, rather than good or better.
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