Currencies
Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
6th May 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
6th May 24, 8:30am
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
6th May 24, 7:37am
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
David Skilling says the strong USD is generating economic pressures around the world, with the potential for disruptive responses – reinforced by geopolitical rivalry
5th May 24, 10:14am
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David Skilling says the strong USD is generating economic pressures around the world, with the potential for disruptive responses – reinforced by geopolitical rivalry
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention
3rd May 24, 7:44am
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention
The Fed’s policy update brought no surprises and little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell when Powell said a rate hike "unlikely". NZ jobless rate rose to 3-year high, as expected, so little net market reaction
2nd May 24, 7:39am
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The Fed’s policy update brought no surprises and little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell when Powell said a rate hike "unlikely". NZ jobless rate rose to 3-year high, as expected, so little net market reaction
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
1st May 24, 7:45am
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
JPY in focus, after the yen crated before strongly rebounding, with signs of official intervention to support the currency. The USD is broadly weaker. Global rates modestly lower
30th Apr 24, 7:49am
JPY in focus, after the yen crated before strongly rebounding, with signs of official intervention to support the currency. The USD is broadly weaker. Global rates modestly lower
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
29th Apr 24, 8:55am
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
29th Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
29th Apr 24, 7:33am
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
26th Apr 24, 8:07am
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
24th Apr 24, 7:51am
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
23rd Apr 24, 7:47am
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
22nd Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
22nd Apr 24, 8:10am
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
22nd Apr 24, 7:21am
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
Privacy Act alone not sufficient to meet user privacy expectations for digital cash, Reserve Bank says
19th Apr 24, 12:00pm
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Privacy Act alone not sufficient to meet user privacy expectations for digital cash, Reserve Bank says
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
19th Apr 24, 7:31am
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
18th Apr 24, 7:50am
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Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
17th Apr 24, 8:10am
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A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
17th Apr 24, 8:02am
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US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
'Digital cash' could shore up monetary sovereignty, plus boost competition and innovation, the RBNZ says
17th Apr 24, 6:01am
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'Digital cash' could shore up monetary sovereignty, plus boost competition and innovation, the RBNZ says
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
16th Apr 24, 7:51am
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
15th Apr 24, 7:43am
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Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
