Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank raised all its fixed rates. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money trimmed its 1 year term deposit rate to 6.00% today.
A +$2 BLN TURNAROUND AS IMPORTS DIVE
Our merchandise trade balance surged in March, jumping from a -$1.6 bln deficit in March 2023 to a +$588 mln surplus in March 2024. Markets were expecting a -$500 mln deficit. While exports did rise a minor +3.8%, it was the huge fall in imports that drove the trade balance shift. Imports of aircraft and parts fell -92%, imports of fuel fell -31%, and imports of vehicles fell -28% (and especially EVs, down -66%).
EXPENSIVE BANK FUNDING
Rabobank has increased its April 2027 floating rate Note to $400 mln, drawing an extra $75 mln from investors. This has been priced at about 6.42%pa, being 78 bps over the 3 month BKBM rate, which recently was at 5.635%.
BOND TENDER GETS HIGH DEMAND FOR HIGHER YIELDS
In today's NZGB bond tender sixty bids worth nearly $1.5 bln were chasing the $500 mln on offer for two maturities. The April 2029 $275 mln went to 8 bidders for a yield of 4.73% pa, up +13 bps from the same offer two weeks ago. The May 2034 $225 mln went to 11 bidders for a yield of 4.94%, up +37 bps from the same offer four weeks ago. That means $975 went unsatisfied, still looking for a home.
"INEVITABLE UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE"
A recruitment industry Jobs Index has plummeted -17.0% in the past three months as the country continues to struggle with economic volatility and dwindling business confidence. Their latest Jobs Report comes with data revealing a staggering -42% decline in job postings in the past year.
STICKY ACROSS THE DITCH
The Australian CPI rate slowed in Q1-2024 from a year ago, but much less than expected. That 'surprise' has buiced up the AUD on the basis that rate cuts priced in may not happen. Australia's inflation rate was at +3.6% in Q1, down from 4.1% in the prior period but above market expectations of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since Q4 of 2021, but the quarter-on-quarter rise was +1.0%, so an annual rate of about 4% is looking sticky for them
SWAP RATES TURN BACK UP
Wholesale swap rates are have likely popped back up today after yesterday's fall, plus a little extra. (Update: Not so; the actual rises were minor.) Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is -1 bp lower at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 45 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps at 4.43% on the Aussie CPI result. The China 10 year bond rate has firmed +1 bp to 2.26% but still close to its all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps to 5.00% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.90% and +2 bps firmer. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.62%. Their 2yr is soft at 4.93%, so the curve is now -31 bps and a lesser inversion.
EQUITIES ALL HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade, with is momentum fizzling after the CPI result. Tokyo is up a very strong +2.1% in its Wednesday trade so far. Hong Kong is up +1.6%. Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore is up +0.7% at its open. On Wall Street the S&P500 closed its Tuesday trade up +1.2%. And the Nasdaq was up +1.6%. Positive earnings reports are driving the gains.
OIL TURNS UP
The oil price has risen +US$1.50 today from this time yesterday to US$83.50/bbl in the US, a bit less to US$87.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD IN MINOR SLIP
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$5 from this time yesterday, now at US$2320/oz.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has held since this time yesterday, up less than +¼c to 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 91.2 AUc on the Aussie CPI result. Against the euro we are holding at 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 69.1.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has slipped but only very marginally today from this time yesterday, now at US$66,575. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very low +/-0.4%.
NOTICE
Thursday, April 25 is ANZAC Day in New Zealand, a public holiday. We will not be publishing tomorrow, but will be back to normal on Friday.
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74 Comments
And other factors?
To set up a fool proof energy system reliant on solar power with a generator back up and auto computer. At the moment around 80k.
Roughly 27yrs of 3k power use. If you are on the grid stay on it. In our situation with no way to get on the grid all good. One thing I would have to say is when you have a system like this there are no power cuts.
Of course there are some who will say that it can be done much cheaper, don't believe them as it means you have to monitor things yourself all the time. What I am talking about is a system as if you are on the grid and don't have to think.
Nz has gone backwards on EVs. But I seriously doubt that NZs electricity generation could cope with a rapid growth of EVs anyway, so this potentially solves two problems. At the moment there is more of an incentive to get a Toyota hybrid, as you don't pay RUCs and pay less for petrol, hence less to use the roads. But it means that lower income people who can't afford a hybrid end up paying more to use the roads per KM as they often have older less efficient cars. Under the recent changes, if you don't have in home charging for your EV, there is no real cost saving to have an EV.
The world was going vbackwards faster backwards with ICE cars, it's just a relativity of the backwards pace.
So many cranially-curtailed folk assert this or that is the only way, or sustainable, or better for them...
The reality is that fossil energy is leaving us, quite rapidly. The reality is that nobody has proven we can build an E-world without fossil energy.
The truth, then, is that EVs are the right answer to the wrong question. The right question is: Can we expect personal transport and roads and all the supports they need, beyond fossil energy - or are we heading to a place where we cannot?
And the most likely answer is? The latter.
That is very much the wrong way to look at it.
We are dissipative, as are most life-forms.
We, unlike most, learned to lever stores of energy - trees/firewood initially, then the fossil stocks. That isn't a rolling experiment; that's a one-way trip, based on draw-down (dissipative - it fits).
So yes - we actually know where we are going. When we've drawn down the finite stocks, we'll be down to running on real-time solar, and its derivatives. Those of us who realised that, decades ago, became early adopters. But we can report back, that it ain't gonna be a seamless plug-and-play. Nor can we avoid the fact that 8 billion are competing where 1 billion did so, 200 years ago. Real-time solar, with no dissipation (of energy or resources) will support a lot less people, at well below our level of consumption. The physical reality of dissipation/entropy, will force us there, irrespective of ignorance and belief.
Just how that plays out, is moot - but the score in the final quarter is already known. It is important to differentiate the two.
That is very much the wrong way to look at it.
The alternative is to assume this was ever planned, or plan-able. Dangerously close to magical sky wizard stuff.
Humans can't even work out basics like "don't trash your body" or "you'll never get more out of a relationship than you put in". Expecting them to manage to find some sort of global healthy equilibrium, is a fairly big stretch.
Relax, it's all out of control.
Just because you aren't going to get agreement from everyone to follow advice doesn't mean the advice is worthless or not worth sharing. Some people will heed the advice, to take your example, about not trashing their bodies and be forever grateful to those that dispensed the advice.
I get it's unlikely many will take the PDK pill as prescribed, especially since timing is a factor and we live in the here and now. But we might start thinking about what population we want to support in NZ, what infrastructure we actually need/can maintain and where growth along with its debt/interest must ultimately take us. Plenty of room for improvement that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
Do you believe the status quo of 'growth' will continue for forever? If not, what's your suggested path?
Real time solar.... Just how that plays out, is moot - but the score in the final quarter is already known
You have it mapped out in your head, theres no room for deviation. We may as well make use of what we have available... "how it plays out is moot" You are welcome to live in a straw house or one built from pieces you found at the tip.
This current species of human (us) roaming the planet is a complete embarrassment. We’ve cocked it up bigtime in the pursuit of I don’t know what. Growth? Wealth? Advancement? Progress? What the place needed (it’s too late now) was someone like myself, who knows what is what, to tell it like it is and assist the people with how to behave.
p-taking aside, someone has to say it. And someone has to be looking ahead.
There aren't many:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2015/04/programmed-to-ignore/
and others put it more eloquently:
https://un-denial.com/2024/04/09/radical-reality-by-hideaway-and-radica…
(both takes are worthy of contemplation....
The current species is the same species. Extremely rare to get any human, at any time living in groups of more than 100 or so to a) not gobble up everything it can and b) not end up in some sort of extreme hierarchy situation.
We put a lot of stock in our big brains, but the underlying hardware is not far removed from something like a Labrador, who will continue eating well past the point of sustenance.
"If only people listen to me, we would be living in utopia" never works out, ask any current or past dictator. The worlds a complex place, the human mind is full of bias and misunderstanding of the complexity of everything around us. Our only potential real hope is that we create a friendly benevolent AI that can hold all possible complexities, weigh them all effectively and chart a course for our species. I really can't see any other way...
Correct, without ideology and programmed to check its own bias, respond quickly, write sensible laws and implement them quickly.
We assume though that this results in something that's an improvement to human lived experience.
Most everyone knows what they should be doing. They just prefer not to.
Yes, I have bought this up multiple times. The National government has really shot us all in the foot getting rid of EV incentives. And why? "Because anything last lot do bad, we do gooder". EVs are the low hanging fruit to de-carbonise, guess we will end up paying billions to tin pot dictators holding onto oil and fake carbon credits instead, because that makes more sense than being self reliant.
Subsidising good things and penalising bad things works everywhere else... but National thinks that sort of interference is inferior to markets that aren't yet established? Idiocy of the highest order.
There's an environmental case for EV adoption. You know, that thing that the entire economy and all markets exist within, but pretend its an "externality". Guess what the role of government is. Claiming that the market works towards the good of the environment or the people in it, therefore the government should butt out, is plainly wrong. Clearly the government can influence markets to encourage or discourage sales within it, see tobacco, alcohol, EVs...
We are about to get very cheap EVs, without all the government subsidies in the early adoption phase, that never would have happened.
There are partial environmental arguments for EVs.
But not in the overall scheme of things.
I'm a technophobe in many respects; built my micro-hydro, build all our off-griddery, am in the workshop on a daily basis, always 'making' or repairing or repurposing something.
But in resource/population/biosphere terms, fitting within the life-supporting envelope, is the beginning and the end of the discussion. Do EVs fit that? Maybe for 500 million people. But even then, fitting-in would be easier without them.
There's a really tenuous environmental case for EV adoption.
If we were really serious about the environment, we'd radically disincentivise any private passenger vehicles.
We can already have cheap EVs. But the market for new cars wants heavy, expensive, feature laden ones.
We have 2 options in the near term: continue with ICE cars or switch to EVs with government help.
Every lifecycle analysis I have ever read puts EVs far ahead of ICE cars from a carbon budget perspective, which is the most pressing environmental challenge facing humanity. In NZ with around 85% renewables, they are so far ahead its not even a race. And they can be charged overnight to flatten out grid usage. I would be fascinated to read anything that isn't some dude on facebook spouting nonsense, that says otherwise.
We can't afford to switch to EVs in the format they're currently in.
So the government isn't helping (because it's not their money), the public are just subsidizing the small percentage of the population with the means to buy them, at the expense of everyone else.
If the aim is to impoverish the masses for the sake of the environment, we could do a lot better than EVs.
If you hadn't noticed, EVs are dropping in price by considerable margins and will continue to do so. The next batch using sodium batteries will eventually be cheaper than ICE cars. Much of that is because any new technology is expensive to start with, but when government subsidises them, they become acceptable to some, then more and more as the prices drop. Take away any form of incentive though and their uptake is slower.
You are all over the place, first the environmental considerations are "tenuous", then the subsidies, which were going to cost something like $300m a year are "impoverishing the masses" apparently. Meanwhile National will happily give already wealthy landlords hundreds of millions a year back, far in excess of the EV subsidy. I suppose you think the latter is not "impoverishing the masses" but the former is?
If you hadn't noticed, EVs are dropping in price by considerable margins and will continue to do so. Much of that is because any new technology is expensive to start with, but when government subsidises them, they become acceptable to some
I'm watching it fairly closely. The price is plummeting because there's an over supply, and a price war, and limited demand. Subsidies have jot all to do with it (well, aside from Chinese subsidies to try and make them the world leader in EVs).
then the subsidies, which were going to cost something like $300m a year are "impoverishing the masses" apparently. Meanwhile National will happily give already wealthy landlords hundreds of millions a year back, far in excess of the EV subsidy. I suppose you don't think the latter is "impoverishing the masses" but the former is?
What do landlords have to do with this discussion about the environment?
Fact is in the current format, EVs are mostly toys for the rich, that everyone else gets to pay for.
Back to the old "Subsidies have zero effect on the market" argument aye? I suggest you look at the number of EVs imported now, vs the same time last year. No difference right? Subsidies clearly have an effect on bringing more cars to market. When they stop, less are sold.
Your claim was that EV subsidies "impoverish the masses" which is clearly an opinion based on nothing. I gave you a more example of another thing that is far more expensive for the government to implement but that nobody bats an eyelid about. You bought up things that will "impoverish the masses". If you want to see what will really "impoverish the masses", check out the billions we will have to pay to buy dodgy carbon credits in the future when we don't meet the commitments this and other governments have signed up to here.
Back to the old "Subsidies have zero effect on the market" argument aye? I suggest you look at the number of EVs imported now, vs the same time last year. No difference right? Subsidies clearly have an effect on bringing more cars to market. When they stop, less are sold.
I never said zero effect. I'm looking at overall global EV sales, Q1 2024 has some decent drops in EV sales in territories all over the planet. Relevant factors:
- there was a vehicle shortage over COVID, and long backorder lists for EVs that were fulfilled over 2022/23
- spending on high price goods has taken a beating due to economic conditions
- early adoption market for EVs is satiated
Subsidies will have some effect, but the fall in sales volumes isn't an NZ specific occurrence - there were always going to be less EV sales in NZ this year, subsidies or no.
"Extremely rare to get any human, at any time living in groups of more than 100 or so to a) not gobble up everything it can and b) not end up in some sort of extreme hierarchy situation."
"If there's a market case for mass EV adoption it needs to happen independently of the government."
You seem very fatalistic Pa1nter.
March 2023 global EV sales were around 1.1m. March 24 they are around 1.2m, see here (that's an increase of ~10%). In NZ sales went from 2600 in March 2023 to 477 in March 2024, see here (thats a decrease of ~80%) . So you couldn't be more wrong if you tried... subsidies had a massive effect in our market.
The EV incentives where for the select few who had 50k plus to spend on a new car. Even if these cars are sold on at a later date, 5-10 years, for 20k who is going to buy them? You will probably be looking at another 20k on a replacement battery if you keep it for another 10 years. You can buy a 10 year old ICE for 15k, change the oil once a year and get 300,000kms out of it. There is no incentive to get people out of 10-20 year old cars and buy a second hand EV. Also, New Zealand has a fixation with SUV's, so not a lot of choice of small, cheaper EV's in NZ like there is in Europe.
The May 2034 $225 mln went to 11 bidders for a yield of 4.94%, up +37 bps from the same offer four weeks ago.
And yet the interpolated mid IR swap rate, for today's 4.25% 15/05/34 government tender yielding 4.9369% was minus 17.5502 bps at 4.7614%.
Quite simply, it takes some financial institution’s balance sheet capacity to take on an interest rate swap (the farther the maturity, the more capacity it requires). If balance sheet capacity (the real money in the system, therefore liquidity) is systemically impaired, as in a crisis, or a crisis that doesn’t really end, then to get dealers to give up their precious balance sheet capacity and engage on the other side of a swap someone would have to pay a hefty premium to make it worth it (risk-adjusted) for the dealer to do so. J Snider
The Australian CPI rate slowed in Q1-2024 from a year ago, but much less than expected....
Under the hood a little with Alex Joiner:
There remains lingering concern around the pace of disinflation in the services and non-tradables space which are trailing goods and tradables disinflation. It is reasonable to expect that progress in this space will be a focus for the RBA (particularly given the experience the Federal Reserve is having in the US with recent inflation trends). We know that coming tax cuts and potentially other cost of living measures in the budget will add to demand while also mechanically putting downward pressure on inflation in key sectors (likely in rents, utilities and childcare). This may see the RBA continue to exercise some caution around potential rate cuts late this year, particularly if the labour market remains tight.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alex-joiner-97499588_australia-2024-q1-c…
The oil price has risen +US$1.50 today from this time yesterday to US$83.50/bbl in the US, a bit less to US$87.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too.
Falling imports of cars, electronics and other luxury items amongst the drivers of our rapidly correcting trade balance, which might be saving us from currency collapse and associated inflation.
This is the mechanism that people conveniently exclude when they rant about how the high OCR isn't fighting inflation.
They will de-fund everything except themselves and their cohort.
But that won't work, because the system was set up to sell squillions of crappy-enough-to-fail-soon products, and their small echelon cannot consume at that rate; there aren't enough hours in the day.
So de-growth will beat them. The choices were to embrace de-growth, or to wait for it to hit us in the face, There was no other choice. They have decided on the latter, or at least, the ramifications of their actions, have committed us to the latter.
Maccy B on why Mad Albo's government must be sacked at the first available opportunity. This one is oozing with irreverence. You won't ask for your <5 mins back.
I can only guess what drives such a sick leader.
Albo has made a big deal out of his houso mother and poor youth. She lied to him for years about his father being dead when he was, in fact, alive overseas.
If you overlay these two experiences of Mum and Dad, you get an eerie reflection of what Albo is transforming Australia into today.
Albo’s repressed rage at his mother makes him loathe the homeless. Expanding their numbers to an entire generation feeds his revenge, especially if it is driven by open borders to enable entry for long-lost fathers.
Whether or not you find this pop psychology convincing is beside the point. He might be just another globalised hollow man who is more at home governing India than Australia.
What is beyond question is that Albo is destroying the Australian way of life at lightning speed, like the LNP mainlined on a kilogram of cocaine.
I have no faith in the LNP to run the place any better. But I am pretty sure that they will at least slow down Albo’s mission of destruction.
Albo has to go at the first available opportunity, preferably burned at the stake.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/04/time-to-face-facts-albo-is-des…
So What is TA Saying in latest musings?
there are many more factors than I am showing here but these should suffice to encourage you to exercise caution regarding putting your family home or retirement on the line on the basis of your favoured scenario playing out.
I see a come to Jesus moment....?
AFR - Traders speculate RBA’s next move could be up
The Australian dollar and bond yields jumped after a surprisingly strong inflation report stoked speculation the Reserve Bank may lift the cash rate again to tame above-target inflation that has survived the past 13 rate rises.
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